Monday, February 11, 2008

What happens when the jobs dry up?

Over 2m foreigners are now working in Britain

Official figures from the Labour Force Survey show that the number of foreigners in the UK workforce increased between 2001 and last year by 864,000 - to just over two million people. This is equivalent to one in 14 of a total working population. By contrast the number of UK-born nationals in the workforce fell, between 2001 and 2007, down by 500,000 from 24.4 million in 2001 to 23.9 million last year. This could be a serious downward pressure on prices when the recession really starts to bite and most of them head off home.

Posted by uncle chris @ 01:43 PM (1297 views)
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15 thoughts on “What happens when the jobs dry up?

  • Waitinginspain says:

    Link is: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/02/11/nmigrants111.xml

    Who said that they will go home when the recession starts. From what some employers say, they may well keep the Polish worker who comes to work on time and works really hard, rather than the… well, you know what I mean

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  • Apparently 40% of UK companies are considering making staff redundant in the next 3 months.

    It’s not looking good…..

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  • new user 2007 says:

    Maybe now that they can all go and work in the EU (as of December), want to send money home in a stronger currency (Euros rather than pounds), it is too expensive to live here, and as the UK economy is about to dive, we will see a sharp reversal in these inflows?

    At the same time, the same forces will ensure that the Britons who have left will remain away. The net effect will be a fall. Perhaps then the “terminally sleepy” will have to get jobs to prevent a rise in wages and so even more inflation than we are seeing?

    According to the scare stories from the same statisical agencies stated in 1972, our population should currently be around 70m (rather than the 60m it is). They are now saying 70m by around 2030? I suspect that that will not happen either. e.g. people from Hong Kong did not want to come here…they wanted a safe haven in case the communists were a problem…

    …they in fact all preferred places like Australia and Canada, and many have returned to Hong Kong now that China is booming. This belief that everyone wants to come here for reasons other than economic (i.e. only for work) is just ego…many English and non-English speaking countries offer better lifestyles than here. Lets not kid ourselves.

    The implication of the above is therefore that the popn v housing issue is completely overdone.

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  • new user 2007 says:

    Waiting.

    I agree that they are less likely to be made redundant. But am thinking they do not want to stay just for the great life style if they can get a similar job on the continent

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  • Safe As A Crash says:

    …is that 1 in 14 doing 100% of the work so the rest can drink tea?

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  • However, there are approximately 700 UK citizens leaving every day too.

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  • it_is_going_with_a_bang says:

    Immigrants will probably be the last to leave.
    They left a social situation and standard of living way below our general standard.
    It is the average British person that will find they can’t or won’t accept the jobs on offer.

    Australia sounds nice to me – One day.

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  • There isn’t the slightest possibility of a recession this year. About the worst outlook will be 1.5% growth, though 1.7% looks more likely. That will increase unemployment by around 250,000. What’s more the slow down will be world-wide, with Britain performing rather better than most other G7 economies. In other words, Britain will remain an attractive destination for most Eastern Europeans, particularly when compared with France, Italy and Spain, all of which are set to under-perform Britain this year.

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  • new user 2007 says:

    The rest of the EU was not open to them for the last 7 years. That is a large part of the reason they came here and not the rest of Europe. As of December 2007 the immigration restrictions in other EU countries for Eastern Europeans are being phased out. So I mean they will go to Germany, France etc as well as here on the pull factor side, and leave here on the push factor/ demand side as our economy is looking increasingly dodgy.

    It is amazing how few BTL people know about this change. Even more scary is the number who are not aware that our own rules on CGT are about to change.

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  • stillthinking says:

    I agree that Canada and Australia sound nice certainly. Curious distinction drawn here about foreigners (presumably foreigners without UK passports) as opposed to foreigners with UK passports who still hold their own native country passport. What exactly counts as foreign? A near perfect English speaking Pole without a UK passport, or one of many non-english speaking passport holders? Does an Australian with both UK parents count as foreign?
    ?????????
    I don’t think they will leave here until the situation gets very bad. Also, if you work in a foreign country you can make a hell of a mess before you decide to leave. I can easily see Polish BTLs walking off if push comes to shove, or anybody who isn’t stuck here, given that the alternative is potentially spending 50K on nothing.

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  • With Sterling heading south at a rate of knots, if I were Polish I’d rather be paid in Euros, so first stop would be across the Irish Sea, followed by a cheapo Ryanair flight back to continental Euroland, especially when Germany opens its doors, as many German employers are screaming for cheap Polish labour. Those BTLs who have squashed several Polish labourers into three-bedroomed terraced houses will get a shock when they all leave for greener pastures.

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  • Who cares……

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  • Along with a boom and bust economy and Iraq, unrestricted mass immigration – without any checking to see if the UK infrastructure can cop with it – is just another example of the complete incompetence of New Labour.

    They have always been the same. Get themselves voted in, spend like there is no tomorrow, and then leave someone else to sort out the mess. Only this time, everybody in the UK has also spent like an absolute idiot.

    Huge recession, massive unemployment & house price crash is the only possible outcome. And it will probably last for around 10 years.

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  • Immigration is not a new phenomenon. For generations we have seen migrant workers throughout europe and America, the latter was even built with migrant workers. The recent East European influx has triggered a social change and a change in the workforce. To think that east europeans would be heading off home at the first sniff of recession is a misconception. Poles, Latvians, Russians and many other east Europeans have made the UK their home and I believe they are going to be an important integral part of our future success. They are a tough breed, I can assure you.

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  • hpwatcher, not *everybody* in the UK has spent like an absolute idiot, maybe up to half the adult population have taken on massive debts and expect the rest of us to bail them out.

    Yakov, the Polatvestonians may have made the UK their home, but if Germany can offer them a better standard of living, I’m sure plenty will head back east.

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