Tuesday, February 19, 2008

They’re all starting to come out of the woodwork now.

Credit Suisse 'suspends' traders

Credit Suisse has suspended a "small number" of traders suspected of inflating the value of mortgage-backed bond investments.

Posted by becky @ 11:42 AM (1091 views)
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16 thoughts on “They’re all starting to come out of the woodwork now.

  • There seems to be quite a lot of ”manipulation” going on at the moment. Just look at the FTSE this week….

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  • Of course, the whole current economic crisis is just down to ‘a few bad apples’. Nothing wrong with the system or the ‘fundamentals’.

    Nothing to see here, move on, move on.

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  • Suspended by which part of their anatomy?

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  • Of course all these Traders were wonderful employees until the [email protected]@t hit the fan.

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  • “There seems to be quite a lot of ”manipulation” going on at the moment.”

    Sure is, just look at the price of gold. Given this sort of news, if it was allowed to trade freely without central bank manipulation it would be north of $1000/oz.

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  • Hp watcher – at the risk of winding you up, the FTSE looks perfectly normal to me. Not to be bigheaded – and i actually got out of some just now at 6030 but this is my post of yesterday…..

    “3. Ftsie was at the bottom of an upward trendline from the low and had had 2 retracements.

    This is yet another example of people trying to fit the market moves to the news stories. IF the market had gone lower then everyone would have said – ah the market doesnt like what the government did on NR. To be fair (although i am long from last week) there was a possibility of the market taking this badly and for the chart formations to support a fall. Infact going into today i was thinking around 60/40 bullish interpretation (falling that it might have had no real impact). Now move should be up for a few days (in my view). Resistance @ 5935 [which we should overcome to the upside], a fall below 5830 would negate the bullish outlook. Target 6200.”

    Monday, February 18, 2008 02:22PM

    Because you dont understand whats happening it doesnt mean its being manipulated. It reminds me of the Rich Grocer, there may be some truth in what he thinks but probably less than he imagined.On the hourlies we are in the 3rd wave up……sorry!!:-)

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  • @techieman, ouch, cutting, cutting….But I was thinking of the following:-

    http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/article3394114.ece

    Which may go some way to account for the FTSE rise…I don’t know if you have seen it. Moreover, I could be wrong, but I expect a major sell off in the week….clearly the trend is down.
    With regards to the Elliot wave thing, that you seem very fond of, I would say it is almost impossible to correctly identify the patterns, it’s a question of scale, and as you say having good data. You may think we are at the third wave, but later it becomes clear that we are are actually in the second wave etc etc. I’ll keep an open mind, but I suspect that it is going to be of little use.

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  • wonder if barclays has been telling porkies too, something doesnt add up in their statements

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  • @mark. I would say so. There is just too much at stake.

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  • ok hpwatcher….. if you want if you really really want i can give you a count.(head on the block and all that) I did this once before for Cornish and showed that there was some predictions – i called the top of a move in gold on the exact day (but i was just applying a rule).

    To an extent you are right – we are in a bear market rally and it is probably difficult to see the levels easily and of course with hindsight “one” is always exactly right, BUT as i said if you know what you are looking for you can find high reward / low risk trades. I am not wedded to the FTSE or anything else – just give me a market that is supported , has good data and moves and i will look for a count off which to trade. I then combine that with other indicators. Now im not saying im always right and really that doesnt matter, its about risk and reward.

    At the moment what i do is even more challenging because in the FTSE it scares me so i trade slightly out of the money options so i know my risk if it goes completely wrong. Why thats more difficult is because you have to be right in both direction AND pretty spot on for timing. The point is you can leave it alone until you see an opportunity. The secondary low at 5690ish was a 50% retracement level from the upmove of the low. On the dailies, that first upmove was counted by me as Wave A in 3 waves.Then B straight down and now C – we have had wave 1 up of C and wave 2 down of C both the bottom of the overall move and the bottom of wave B created a trendline. That trendline was hit by the bottom of wave 2 of C. We are now in wave 3 of C – which (C) should form 5 waves. There was resistance at 6020 which was why i got out at 6030 – often the case that a resistance line will be broken and then pull back – its called “running the stops”. Now to take your point – what i am labelling as a “3” could be a “C” wave of that “C”, but i dont think so for various reasons.

    We all know the fundamentals look rubbish but thats not the point, because generally fundamentals work but only eventually – anyone on this site should know that!!! So to sum we are in a c wave of an a-b-c which MAY itself be the A wave of a bear market – with B and C to come, but too early for that! When i see the top of this current c i will be sidelined. IF my count is wrong i have a stop… which has moved up from yesterdays 5830. At the end of the day we use what we are comfortable with. I used to trade fundamentally but it really didnt gel with my personality.

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  • hpwatcher – have read the article which i take with a pince of salt. Of course theyre may be a sell off – particularly if the other banks report worse numbers than now expected. But I just think technically this looks bullish! Although i’d be the first to admit that may go from bullish to bs. Mind you spot on about the DAX – that is extremely volatile in my experience.

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  • @techieman

    Well the Elliot wave stuff does sound very interesting. But the real question is whether it is easily possible to match up patterns with the theory….before the conclusion. Perhaps they are patterns that can really only be spotted in retrospect.

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  • is gold about to break out of it’s 900-930 range right now?

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  • hpwatcher – to coin a phrase you keep “banging on about this” ;-). Its not easy – if it was easy then everyone would do it, and i didnt start using it last week!! Im not on a quest to change your mind – its up to you. But i thought i had just showed how i am matching the patterns with the theory before the conclusion?

    You are right the theory does cater for changes in counts (and which to the untrained eye renders it of little use – although you cant confuse a second wave with a third – they are in different directions!) but some counts have higher probability than others. Of course predictive power should not be confused with absolute predictive power, but it does give a framework, which i use along with support/resistance. Fib retracements, trendlines and overbought / oversold indicators. I said before i am quite happy with looking for the high probability middle moves.

    What i would say is its worth including the book by Frost and Prechter in your library – if not for actual trading it is an interesting read. But then again it depends on your interest – i have said add Fred H stuff and Charles Mackay, i have some Rob beckman (downwave and housequake – althoguh his timing in housequake couldnt be worse!).

    As for the Housing market – the chart on the front page of this website can be counted as a 5 wave count – with if you like the 2005 fall being the 4th wave of the 5th wave of the (larger)5th wave. Now from there to conform to the Elliott pattern there is a high probability of an a-b-c corection, thats basically it! Now you may accept that or disagree which is fine, but thats the framework.

    I think what s2r1 is saying is that he looks at other long term stuff and basis his view accordingly. I dont know how much weight he gives to his various indicators, but personally i just find his posts of interest – i have an open mind about K-waves and before coming on here i had never heard of the Mayan calendar, although we disagree on gold (although i MAY change my mind if the high of 937.5 spot gets taken out, which to be fair is looking increasingly likely!).

    Pride of position is a danger and thats a very difficult thing to get over, which I have learnt to do. If my count is wrong on this FTSE action i will stay out knowing that ive still done ok on this move and live to fight another day. I am also quite conservative and not greedy, the greed and pride of position go in tandem. I’m not saying Elliott is the be all and end all – its all about personal preference.

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  • @hr not sure that was aimed at me anyway – great rally today eh? Im not willing to trade this at the moment – just dont like it. I tried to get out of 10% of my core at 940 before, we will have to wait and see if it doesnt break the previous high today then tomorrow is quite important. I know on the fence a bit – sorry! I have been going on about favouring the downside but this IS one of those cases where the Elliott can have both up or down moves with similar probabilities. – See Hpwatcher am admitting you are right!

    If I HAD to trade it I would sell with a stop above 940 (i know that sounds odd), but i have no real feeling one way or another. That might be because i need a strong setup, to sort out the physcology of holding a long core position while looking to short. In fact i culd do that to hedge my long position but i only trade if the technical reasons are strong enough to support it and at the moment i am having problems with that.

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  • thanks for your opinion techieman. My own thoughts are less technical but sentiment. Gold went to $800 rested there then went to $900 now resting there and I have a feeling it will do the same around $1000. I am afraid to do any short trading because I am scared of getting left behind if it suddenly goes ballistic. With all the bad news around there is no telling what the trigger might be. I’ll leave my short trading gambles for shares. Still congratulating myself for getting the February bear rally right on a few miners (not gold).

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