Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Stuart Law “Downturn in recent months is simply part of a stabilisation process and not a market crash as has been touted by some.”

Assetz results reveal extent of house price slowdown

The extent of the recent house price slowdown has been reflected in the latest results of the Assetz House Price Watch, revealing a marked decrease on this time last year.

Posted by jack c @ 04:28 PM (2833 views)
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17 thoughts on “Stuart Law “Downturn in recent months is simply part of a stabilisation process and not a market crash as has been touted by some.”

  • yawn

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  • Sztuart Law iz talking out of hiz arze. Again.

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  • We shall call this stabilisation Stuartz Law; to all you property investors out there, prepare to fill your bootz.

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  • Only this bloke could interpret 3 months of falling prices as levelling off.

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    Seriously, there was an article in City AM that said “The worst of the commercial property crash is over – prices fell by 4% in December but only by 2% in January”.

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  • It is long overdue that these people be both regulated and qualified – they clearly push property as an investment – eg “Law said the property sector had remained a good investment so far in 2008, rubbishing claims of an imminent market crash. He added: “Residential property is the clear winner of the mainstream investment classes, with the turmoil of the credit crunch causing prices to fall in areas of commercial property as well as the stock market.”

    Very thin dividing line between providing advice and information/opinion – can’t quite understand why property investment/BTL is non regulated when it involves significant sums of money

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  • little professor says:

    “Seriously, there was an article in City AM that said “The worst of the commercial property crash is over – prices fell by 4% in December but only by 2% in January”.”

    That’s hilarious! 😀

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  • new user 2007 says:

    If using the Nationwide figure for January and assuming no change for the rest of year on a month on month basis, we get on a nominal basis a fall of 0.43% year on year. I think in the second half we will see worse year on year falls, partly just because of statistical reasons, but even with no change for the rest of the year month on month, we see year on year falls in the second half of the year.

    PRICE M on M Y o Y Annual change
    2008 Jan 180473 -0.88 4.18
    Feb 180473 0.00 3.30
    Mar 180473 0.00 1.91
    Apr 180473 0.00 0.09
    May 180473 0.00 -0.61
    Jun 180473 0.00 -1.95
    Jul 180473 0.00 -2.06
    Aug 180473 0.00 -1.86
    Sep 180473 0.00 -2.30
    Oct 180473 0.00 -2.99
    Nov 180473 0.00 -1.97
    Dec 180473 0.00 -0.88 -0.43

    As for it have being a good investment so far in 2008 because you would have only lost 0.2% in nominal terms!? How and what is he on about? Even if rents are rising in his imaginary world, they are still only playing catch up with rising rates relative to 2 years ago i.e. people are now coming off fixed rates and rates are higher. I suspect he is comparing it with other asset classes that have fallen recently, but for some reason he seems to think those classes should come with a health warning that prices can rise and fall, but not housing.

    The other laughable part is that 7% is sustainable. The assumption is therefore that prices will forever grow above that of average salaries into infinity. More scary is the evident inconsistency. Is he referring to sustainability or fundamentals…according to him fundamentals are ensuring that prices were rising “correctly” for the last two years but that that rate is not sustainable. Yet then no mention that something has to give, in his 7% sustainable scenario (based on him making that number up)…

    …rocketing wage growth to catch up, and so inflation and so higher ineterst rates?
    …only investors have housing…any bets on the social breaking point that forces the government to bring in a large scale tax increase for BTL?
    …a fall in nominal house prices?
    …no nominal house price increases for years and years so real prices catch up (how many BTL will stay in in that scenario?)?

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  • a fool in denial

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  • I wonder what an internet search engine (google, or the new market leader) entry of

    “Stuart Law Assetz”

    will show as a result in 2012?

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  • Well, Assetz were correct in their prediction of 9% HPI for 2007. His forecast for 2008 is 5% HPI.

    Be careful of who you label a fool

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  • Stuart Law Assetz, failed to predict with any accuracy or formula the coming crunch of 2007. He has already discounted the possibility of prices going down.

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  • No no no is not a crash thats ‘Doom Monger’ speak what you are witnessing is ‘An Ongoing Correction’…

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  • They will be calling the bottom of the market all the way down.

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  • it_is_going_with_a_bang says:

    Levelling Off ??
    The one thing this country has never and will never do is level off at anything.
    It’s either going really well all guns blazing or absolutely terrible

    Just take a look at the football and cricket … Mr Stuart Law …

    Levelling off and fundamentals we can all rely on…

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    Enuii… ‘Stuartz Law’, excellent! 🙂 Anyone fancy sticking that up on Wiki?

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  • Turnbull.

    Getting one forecast correct means very little in the forecasting world. The 9% was predicted without the significant event called the credit crunch taking place. If not for the crunch, prices would have clearly been higher (it is all liquidity driven, after all) than 9%.

    Please explain why he did not just get lucky if he was only right because of the major financial shock that hit the system in the second half?

    If he had said there will be a credit crunch that will cause prices to rise by 9% instead of say 14%, you can say he was not lucky. But that is not the case.

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