Thursday, February 28, 2008
six month old data shows house prices on edge of cliff
UK House prices increase by 6.4% year on year - Land Registry
House prices in England and Wales have increased by 0.9 per cent according to the latest monthly figures from Land Registry. The increase takes the average house price to £186,045. However, the data shows a decline in annual house price changes, from 6.7 per cent last month to 6.4 per cent this month. London experienced annual price growth of 13.1 per cent, with the average house price for January standing at £357,976. The largest monthly growth was seen in the North West with an increase of 2.0 per cent, taking the average house price there to £139,362. The volume of transactions was down on the same period last year, with an average of 100,648 per month in the months August to November 2007, compared with 117,173 per month from August to November 2006
Posted by converted lurker @ 12:17 PM (1680 views)
18 thoughts on “six month old data shows house prices on edge of cliff”
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Dart6911 says:
Doesn’t that mean the the values ARE NOT CRASHING?
If we define a crash as a 15% drop in 12 mth period data suggests this is not happening presently
HM
hpwatcher says:
Although these figures are a little disappointing, I think it will take a while longer before any substantial reductions can be seen. The housing market is in a state of deadlock, with greedy vendors trying to get higher rates for their properties and vendors holding out to see what the market is doing.
The market is in a state of transition, though the signs seem to be getting more and more pronounced…..which are very definitely pointing towards recession and a full blown house price crash.
theboltonfury says:
what on earth does all this mean? You need a PHD in quantative methods to understand. It’s just a load of numbers, interspersed with jargon
theboltonfury says:
sorry people, am I missing something? It seems to indicate the whole country’s HP has started to rise again – and quite markedly in some parts.
maddison says:
There is no crash yet but it is on the edge of a cliff, could go either way!
Feel The Need To Comment says:
Just to take things back to basics. I live in a flat in SE1 which according to land registry is “worth” £400k. My rent is £1450pm (just going up by £50pm this month). Something has got to give.. either my rent needs to go up by well over a grand a month – or the price needs to drop by quite a bit. which is more likely?
Drrayjo says:
The Sales Volumes in this are the only forward indicator
The Sale Prices are ArchaeoEconomics
6 Months ago the deadlock began, hence Volumes down around 20%
Very few price reductions then. I like my meat fresh…
Try PropertyBee and PropertySnake (and Auctions) for LIVE transactions
There you will find up to date early signs of a decrease in sale prices…
It’s only just beguuuuun….
Noho says:
Whats the time lag for land registry data?
Misslilly says:
There is so much conflicting information everywhere it’s completly confusing! One minute I read ‘House Prices are Falling’ then the next day headlines ‘House Prices Rise’! Then there’s the huge difference between Average House Prices – one report is £185k then the next I read is £203k, why such different figures? I don’t really understand it all, not the brighest spark!
We sold our house in Jan 2006 to rent (I wanted to move abroad, but am stil here). Then Jan 2007 decided we’d buy another place here and make a bit more money to move away in a few years, but I got an awful feeling it was the wrong move and we’d lose money so pulled out of a sale of few months on. I’m still wishing that they’d be some solid data as to whether I was right or wrong!! Now I worry if we don’t move abroad if we will ever be able to buy here again!
magnifico says:
My house has been for sale for an 130% more than I paid for it 9 years ago ( it goes without saying that it is in my view grossely overpriced). It has been on the market for 2 months and we had 3 viewings. I’m not even tempted to reduce the price, as I’m under no pressure to sell, being a future Sold to Rent.
At the moment the market is stagnant because FTBs are priced out and investors are giving property a wide berth. Prices are not coming down yet as the desperate sellers ( those who will be hit hard by the credit crunch) haven’t started to flood the market yet.
Bobsto says:
We are in a major financial crisis. Mortgages are being rationed (for the first time since the 1970’s?). There is no way house prices will not fall.
Misslilly says:
I am totally confused with all the conflicting information out there. One minute the headlines are House Price are Falling then the next day House Prices Rise! Then there’s the difference between the average cost of a home, one report says £185k the next £203k! I’m just an Average Joe wanting to have some idea about my financial future.
We sold our house to rent in Jan 2006 as I wanted to move abroad (am still here!), then in Jan 2007 decided that we needed some more money behind us and thought we’d buy another house for a few years hoping to make 10% per year profit! After a few months down the line in the process of buying I got an awful feeling we were doing the wrong thing and pulled out, so we still rent! I’m just hoping for some solid data to confirm if my actions/feeling were right or wrong! Will this ever happen? I worry that if we decide to stay in the UK that we will never afford to buy our own home again!
wdbeast says:
We had a debate about how cr4p these statistics are last month.
Once again, headline numbers for my region, East Midlands, is +1.5%Monthly change
However
Derbyshire 0.0%
Lincolnshire +0.3%
Northamptonshire -0.5%
Nottinghamshire -0.2%
Rutland -1.1%
Total East Midlands +1.5%
We can debate it as much as we like, I do have a good appreciation of statistics and weightings, but it does not change the fact that these are misleading at best!
Try the same for your areas.
Root data at http://www.landreg.gov.uk/assets/library/documents/181181.pdf
theboltonfury says:
you did indeed WB and it has just jogged my memory
imagine my surprise to hear that prices are up 2% in the NW. All I am seeing is houses not shifting, at best stagnations and a raft of fliers coming through for reduced properties. Not to mention ALL the houses we viewed 12 months ago, still on the market at around 15k less. However Jordan Fishwick tell the market is on fire! Well they would wouldn’t they
justwatching says:
Magnifico
Reduce it. Sell it. Pocket the cash. Quick, before it’s too late.
Novembers figures. 22% lower volume of sales. Quite a big drop there.
The statistical permutations are a bit beyond me, but, they claim to only use figures where houses have been passed on more than once since 2000.
Bye_to_let says:
Or Magnifico,
You may be right, or your ignorance may cost you dearly
Time will tell…
alan says:
@boltonfury,
Locally a lot of houses haven’t sold, so they are being put up for let. Many houses now say “sale or let” (Essex/Suffolk). Perhaps the psychology is that sellers are unwilling to drop prices, and put the properties up to let?
My friends recently tested bids on a number of houses and the sellers were reluctant to drop prices more than £2,000. Denial?
Bairstow Eves & Taylors offices were as dead as a funeral parlour over the past few days – perhaps they do most of their sales by email these days?
tyrellcorporation says:
Calm down people, cheap credit has gone and so have the speculators. The market has only one way to go – DOWN!