Thursday, February 21, 2008

House building stocks get demolished

House building stocks get demolished

It’s refreshing when you see an analyst really laying into something. And that’s exactly what Dresdner Kleinwort’s Alastair Stewart did to the housebuilders' stocks yesterday. Forget about a soft landing for property. Housing demand has been entirely a function of the amount of money available to borrow to pump into property. That availability isn’t diminishing slowly – it’s been pole-axed by the belated realization – stemming initially from the US - that borrowed money has to be paid back sometime. And that means demand will collapse.

Posted by damien @ 10:56 AM (1187 views)
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6 thoughts on “House building stocks get demolished

  • ”Housing demand has been entirely a function of the amount of money available to borrow to pump into property. ”

    Very, very nicely put.

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  • Yes hpwatcher,

    “Forget about a soft landing. Housing demand has been entirely a function of the amount of money available to borrow to pump into property. That availability isn’t diminishing slowly – it’s been pole-axed by the belated realization – stemming initially from the US – that borrowed money has to be paid back sometime. And that means demand will collapse.”

    I’d say that most commentators on this site have predicted significant falls in a few years at the earliest. John Stepek, on the other hand is going into Uber-Bear country. If prices really are tied so intimately to available loans then things could get quite bloody by as early as next year. Quite a nice thought (ignoring the general economic carnage.)

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  • The scene:

    Julia Hayers, Porgamme Controller at the BBC and Kirsty Allsopp, Property Pornstar. The setting is the more exclusive canteen at the BBC.

    Julia: Look, Kirsty, I dont want you to feel that the doors have all closed here at the BBC. If you come up with anything else, then please, I dont want you to shesitate to call
    [Suddenly, the camera cuts from a shot of Kirstys worried face to another daydream sequence, in the same seedy nightclub. Julia Hayers still sits at the table with a bottle of Blue Nun. Kirsty moves towards Julia, as before.]
    Kirsty: Would you like me to lap dance for you?
    [Julia Hayers holds the bottle of wine in her hands and laughs manically Blue Nun!. The camera cuts repeatedly with different shots of Julia Hayers, in each one with less hair on her head until she is finally nearly completely bald. Just as suddenly we cut back to the restaurant, and an anxious Kirsty.]
    Julia: dont shesitate, if you have any other ideas. Id be very interested
    Kirsty: Got them here, got them here! [Kirsty reaches down and picks up a blue file.]
    Julia: Right
    Kirsty: Right, OK. Shoestring, Taggart, Spender, Bergerac, Morse. What does that say to you about regional detective series?
    Julia: Theres too many of them?
    Kirsty: Thats one way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is, people like them, lets make some more of them. A detective series based in Norwich called Swallow. Swallow is a detective who tackles vandalism. Bit of a maverick, not afraid to break the law if she thinks its necessary. shes not a criminal, but she will, perhaps, travel 80mph on the motorway if she, for example, she wants to get somewhere quickly
    [Julia Hayers shakes her head.]
    Kirsty: Think about it. No-one had sheard of Oxford before Inspector Morse. I mean, ther will put Norwich on the map.
    Julia: Why would I want to do that?
    Kirsty: Yep, fair point. OK, right. Kirsty Attack!. Like the Cook Report, but with a more slapstick approach.
    Julia: [Shakes her head again] No.
    Kirsty: Arm Wrestling with Chas and Dave.
    Julia: I dont think so.
    Kirsty: Pity, because they were very keen on that one. Right, ah, now youll like ther one. Knowing M.E., Knowing You. I, Kirsty Allsopp, talk to M.E. sufferers about the condition. You know, we intersperse it with their favourite pop songs, make it light-hearted, you know, give them a platform, youve got to keep the energy up, because
    [Julia shakes her head, horrified.]
    Kirsty: You dont like it?
    Julia: No.
    Kirsty: Thats alright, thats OK. Inner-City Sumo.
    Julia: Whats that?
    Kirsty: We take fat people from the inner cities, put them in big nappies, and then get them to throw each other out of a circle that we draw with chalk on the ground.
    Julia: No, no its a bad idea.
    Kirsty: Very cheap to make.
    Julia: No.
    Kirsty: Do it in a pub car park.
    Julia: [Laughing] No.
    Kirsty: If you dont do it, Sky will.
    Julia: Well Ill live with that. Is that it?
    Kirsty: Well, no, no. Cooking in prison.
    Julia: [Laughing] Oh, no.
    Kirsty: [Desperately] An Allsopp Amongst The Pigeons.
    Julia: Whats that?
    Kirsty: Well, its just a title, I mean erm, well, opening sequence, me, in Trafalgar Square, feeding the pigeons, going Oh God!
    Julia: [Holds her hands up] No, Im sorry, no! Stop!
    Kirsty: Whoa, whoa, whoa, erm, Youth Hosteling with Chris Eubank.
    Julia: [Laughing and shaking head] No!
    [Pause]
    Kirsty: Monkey tennis?
    Julia: [Seriously now] There is to be no second series, and Ive listened to your ideas, Ive listened to them all, and I havent liked a single one.
    Kirsty: Julia, Ive, look Ive just bought a house. Its got a Buck Rodgers toilet. One yank, all gone!
    Julia: We dont owe you a living. You are someone who has a proven track record of making mainly bad television programmes.
    Kirsty: Thats thats thats b#llocks, but carry on.
    [Kirsty is now nervously playing with her lower lip. she looks to be in great pain]
    Julia: Its not b#llocks. Your programmes were appalling. The ratings were a ninth of what we could have expected, they started badly, they got worse
    Kirsty: [Interrupting in child-like imitation] They started badly, they got worseooh, your programmes, your programmes
    Julia: Kirsty youre making a fool of yourself.
    Kirsty: [Beginning with a painful, high-pitched whine] Who-oowho-oo who do you think you are?
    Julia: Well unfortunately for you, I am the Chief Commissioning Editor of BBC Television.
    [The two men stare at each other for a second.]
    Kirsty: [Forcing a smile] Oh, lets forget about all ther!
    [Kirsty takes her fork and stabs it deep into a large block of cheese. she holds it aloft in her right hand.]
    Kirsty: Do you want some cheese?
    Julia: [Sitting back, slightly worried] No thanks.
    Kirsty: [Sniffs it] Mmm. Quite nice. Smells. Do you want to smell it? [Kirsty offers the cheese, still on the end of her fork, to Julia.]
    Julia: No thanks.
    Kirsty: Smell the cheese.
    Julia: No I dont want to.
    Kirsty: [More forcefully] Smell my cheese!
    Julia: Kirsty, please.
    [Kirsty gets up from her seat and thrusts the cheese into Julia Hayers face]
    Kirsty: [Shouting] Smell my cheese, you mother!
    [A waiter then attempts to restrain the hysterical Kirsty. Another stands by the table.]
    Waiter: [Angrily] I think thats quite enough, thank you!
    [At this point Kirsty takes fright and charges out of the restaurant, cheese and fork still in hand.]
    Kirsty: Ive got cheese! Ther is cheese!

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  • Okay not everyone might have got that. It was Kirsty asking the BBC programme controller (unsuccessfully) for another series.

    It is based on an Alan Partridge sketch. With the current glut of downbeat new in the proprty market, I’m quite sure that a similar conversation has already taken place at White City …

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  • If she does decide to become a lap dancer, she’ll go hungry!

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  • “If she does decide to become a lap dancer, she’ll go hungry!”

    —- Kirsty could always eat that hat

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