Thursday, February 28, 2008

Eurozone downturn?

Soaring euro threatens European jobs exodus

The euro has surged to an all-time high of $1.51 against the dollar, prompting bitter complaints from European industry and setting off a sharp sell-off in sovereign bonds from southern states deemed least able to withstand a super-strong currency.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 07:29 AM (1693 views)
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31 thoughts on “Eurozone downturn?

  • I think this is why the govt. have to be very careful with interest rates. Unlike America our future is linked with Europe and the effect of inflation likely to be far more devastating.

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  • The strength of the Euro seems to be based purely and simply on what happens in Germany – wage increases in Germany – ECB hold/raise rates – high manufacturing confidence in Germany, ECB hold/raise rates……..every other nation state seems to be forgotten. Is the EU really that reliant on one member state, or is the ECB blinded by the fact that their headquarters are in Frankfurt and so the loudest voices are those of the Germans. The Euro might as well be called the Deutchmark (spelling?), don’t you think????? European domination at last.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    The charts are showing 1.55-1.60 in the next 2 months for a final exhaustion. Then it is time to sell the euro. For what? Not sure.

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  • planning4acrash says:

    S2R, if there was an event at the 4th night of this cycle, it would be peak oil. Nov 8th 2005 is when the oil production plateau began. The oil issue has a lot to do with the inflationary beast now, that stops bankers from cutting rates to save the economy. A bit more sensible than you’re dude’s CRAZY interpretation?! Any thoughts?

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  • The Euro is now up over 76p (76.19) against the £, per Reuters. This must be a low.

    Looking forward to reading the comments on this one…!

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  • “The natural step is to shift to the dollar zone or low-cost areas as they have done in the car industry. This could include parts of our factory plant and some research tasks,” he said.”

    Yeah – outsource to some cheap third world country like the US!

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  • Bystander – absolutely my experience of germans (and i have some German blood in me) is that its not that they are Megalomanics per se, its just that they truly believe that what they perceive to be the best for everybody really IS the best for everybody. I am actually pleased we are not in Euroland, however I’d also rather us not be the 51st US state – thats why i advocate in general holding the Swissy. Now having said that I dont think it (the Swissy or the Euro for that matter) has relatively that much left in it either time or price before a more major correction.

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  • hi techieman

    euro/swissy major correction soon. But, as s2r1 says, to where? For there to be a correction, the money has to go somewhere. Rouble?

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  • Oh sorry Cornish – i actually mean – hold my breath and be shot down in flames – Euro against the $ and Swissy against the £. So in short i believe that the pound goes higher and the dollar higher but only AFTER this latest move up in the Euro/Swiss. But if and when the dollar strengthens below 1.94ish against the £ the pound goes down to 1.86. So the dollar gets significantly stronger and takes the pound with it to a lesser extent…..but not right now!!! After that buy the Swissy. So overall buy the Swissy but not right now – wait for a correction, now the strength and period of both the current move and the correction before the next move up are the current questions. Ive not done the work so would be inclined to wait for the $/£ to break 1.94. Now whether or not this analysis means that there will be a stronger currency than the $ during that time – well there may be!!!

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  • japanese uncle says:

    JPY seems the only feasible destination, just along with SwissFR.

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  • On the other hand…

    Gold and silver are in long-term bull markets. Nimble traders with a lot of time to analyze the markets, may be able to take partial profits from time to time, but the majority of investors, should head the advice of legendary investor Jesse L. Livermore who said:

    “It was never my trading that made the big money, it was always the waiting”.

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  • Train of thought sparked by the photo on this article – on a purely practical note, how long can the ‘dollar’ survive as a paper note rather than a coin? You currently need ten of them to buy our own smallest paper banknote, the fiver, which itself is already disappearing from UK tills.

    If the fall in purchasing power continues it’ll be totally useless as a practical token of exchange (when visiting the states you get great wodges of same-coloured paper and hardly any coins as it is already).

    Of course they might keep its symbolic value and move mainly to electronic payment (contactless cards along the Oyster model). For purely nostalgic reasons the still have the 1c coin which has been pointless for decades.

    Or once Bernake’s helicopters have really done their inflationary work – maybe they could have a new currency as practiced by the banana republics the US is so fond of setting up and then tipping over when they fall out with them – ‘New Dollar’ any time soon?

    But thinking more broadly, a dollar coin would actually be historically fitting – the silver Taler coin (where the name comes from) was effectively Europe’s reserve currency for over 400 years …. though don’t expect emergence of a silver standard any time soon.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    planning4acrash,

    theoildrum.com says that 95pc of all predictions are for peak oil to be in 2008-2010
    See graph

    I think what will emerge during this year is not only that peak oil is a reality but the big oil companies have known about it for a long time.
    The big oil companies have kept it a secret because they didn’t want anyone to develop alternative energies and dent their mega profits when oil zooms off to the moon.

    The fifth night in the galactic cycle (2008 approx) is all about the reality of the governments/banks/corporations/media being exposed for what they really are.
    Every week now we are seeing new exposures. The banks are getting the brunt of it now. The pharma coompanies were exposed for selling anti-depressant drugs that were not required. This exposure will intensify as we enter the spring/summer.

    I am really looking forward to the exposure of governemnts, especially their role in “false flag” operations. Charlie Sheen/Alex Jones have started the ball rolling here.

    Also, I am hoping the US public realise that they have been denied any knowledge about Ron Paul from the mass media. The internet’s power of exposing the corrupt mass media is happening every day.

    As for Ian Lungold’s CRAZY predictions about time travel and teleportation. Maybe they are not so CRAZY.

    Regarding Time travel. This already exists too. Satellites orbiting the Earth have to have their internal clocks regularly adjusted as their time slows down.
    This was all proven in Einstein’s theory of relativity.

    Watch the discovery Discovery Channel documentary on Ronald Mallett (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Mallett)
    He has scientific peer support in his paper to build the first time machine (although it will only be sending sub-atomic particles back into the past).
    http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-3926114811829147635 (5 parts)

    It is the “ffth night” in the Universal cycle (summer 2011) that will be when the CRAZY items come out. This is when all remaining parts of our reality will be questioned.

    Watch

    Reality on the Rocks Part 1,2 and 3
    http://quicksilverscreen.com/watch?video=27204

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  • s2r1 – looking at the black line on your graph, I think that p4ac may be more accurate with his peak oil date than yours. I’m told that the middle eastern states are already pumping masses of seawater into their wells to extract the final gobs of oil and that the reason they are not increasing production to meet demand is that it is impossible for them to do so.

    Regarding time travel; if it were possible to go back in time, why has no-one from the future been back yet? The only reasonable explanations would appear to be that either it’s not possible – or that mankind does not survive long enough to discover it.

    would love to watch your suggested videos – but don’t have time in the day and don’t have the internet in the evening…

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  • Blindleadtheblind says:

    LMAO…super strong currency? Look at the performance the last couple of years against GOLD and now tell me it’s a super strong currency! Its a race to inflate and devalue with $ leading the way and the pound not far behind…

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    cornishman,

    Modern thinking of time travel solves the paradox of “travelling back in time and killing your grandfather” by having parallel universes. The universe where you kill your grandfather is a different universe to the one you travelled from.

    The videos explain the concepts very well.

    Teleportation exists at the sub-atomic level
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teleportation
    “Until recently, scientists had been able to transport only light or single atoms over short distances (millimeters). However, it was reported in October 2006 in the weekly science magazine Nature [4] that Professor Eugene Polzik and his team at the Niels Bohr Institute at Copenhagen University in Denmark have made a breakthrough in the field.[5] [6] Their experiment involved the transportation of information from a weak light beam to a macroscopic atomic object containing thousands of billions of atoms, located half a meter away. The technique involved the use of quantum entanglement, quantum measurement and quantum feedback.”

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    Latest peak oil update page
    http://www.theoildrum.com/tag/update

    All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.54 mbpd
    Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.09 mbpd
    Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.30 mbpd
    NGPL: the peak date is still February 2007 at 8.03 mbpd

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  • STR – If you can go back in time, why not buy cheap house in the 1970s?

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  • s2r1 – if anyone goes back in time to a parallel universe, for it to be meaningful, they would need to be aware that they had done so – or they would arrive with no memory of their past and would not know what they had done. That being the case, even though a huge number of universes might exist, I would have thought that, satistically, someone from another universe would have arrived here by now to tell us all about where they came from. And if you forget everything that you had done in the other universe, then I can’t see there being a great deal of point doing it

    I am sure that at some point we will understand this space/time physics and the difference between what works in the quantum world and what works in the ‘real’ world. It is intriguing to realise that, when we do know about the correlation, it will all appear so obvious that we will wonder why no-one had thought of the explanation before. With the exponential advance of man’s knowledge, that time might well fit, timewise, with the predictions you have been posting.

    House prices may well become totally irrelevant!

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  • Last_days_of_disco says:

    @sold 2 rent 1

    You are joking about all this “galactic cycle” stuff right?

    Time travel? I thought this was a blog about house prices. Please tell me you are joking.

    Isn’t this exactly the sort of radical ideas the Robert Prechter predicted would start appearing in an economic crash. I read his book on how to survive a deflationary depression after hearing about it on this site. I learned a lot of things. I don’t remember him mentioning galatic cycles n stuff. I saw a post mentioning the mayan calendar the other day, was that you sold 2 rent 1?

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  • Cyril – bravo! Can I go first, though? My savings would buy a lot more then, too!

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    For there to be a correction, the money has to go somewhere?
    Gold and silver?

    Remember the euro correction may not happen until April/May and gold may not peak until May/June.
    Gold’s biggest rises will come when it rises against usd, gbp, eur, and yen at the same time.

    The reversing of the euro may be the blow-off phase of this gold upleg.

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  • The Euro is just a rebranding of the DM (at a value of 1.95 the old currency). It’s adoption by Ireland has been a disaster as interest rates were held too low for too long and, per head of population, their bubble is even bigger than ours. Head over to the propertypin for opinions.

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  • planning4acrash says:

    S2Rent, My theory is, that time travel is impossible. Because, if timetravel was correct, and time does indeed slow down for satellites, then they would dissapear into the past, with relativity. If speed slows down time, then your hands would dissapear into the past every time you have a wa*k!! (sorry, but this topic needs humour, because we are talking about psuedo-science here!!)

    The thing is, and maybe I differ with einstein here, but, things with more mass need more energy to do things. If things speed up, relativity says that they obtain more mass. But, if they speed up, they do not gain additional energy, other than the kinetic energy that propels them. Therefore, with more mass, the chemical processes in an object, such as a satellite, would slow down. As would perception and ageing. Note that the satellites you refer to measure time with atomic clocks. Those atomic clocks should indeed slow as their mass increases, therefore expressing a lower time. (maybe I should have kept this secret before publishing it! But I’ve had some wine so have let it out!!)

    I therefore personally believe that time is an illusion. If you ever meditate and experience eternity, you will realise that eternity is not and endless supply of tomorrows, it is the everlasting present moment. Because all there is, is here and now, so, things change here and now. Your perception of time is just that, a perception. You only experience time because you have a buffer memory to your senses, which lasts for about 2 to 5 seconds, and decays quickly, so, this moment, is compared with how this moment was a few seconds ago by your memory, which gives you a perception of time and a continuum, unfortunately Einstein was not a master of cognitive psychology. If he would, he may have been able to differentiate between physical reality and artifacts of the cognitive process when he discussed time.

    So, from my perspective, time is just an artifact of your buffer memory. Longer term perception of time is felt with the comparison between now and memories of how now once was in your long term memory. Those memories decay, and therefore feel distant. Thus giving a perception of a distant past and a time continuum, when infact, that is a memory of how now was, before it changed. That is where I think that Einstein was wrong. I don’t think that there is a time/space continuum, in quite the way that he put it. As I said, my theory is based on him not realising that rates of change slow down as mass increases with increased velocity. In some respects therefore, it is possible for time travel, in that one could reverse a process. Maybe you could reverse the process of ageing. Certainly, you can slow down a process, so that you don’t move forward in time so fast, but that is just describing the rate and direction of change for one thing relative to another.

    With the issue of teleportation, well, one may just as well say that i-tunes if the thing referred to in the mayan calender, that one can now buy and sell on-line and download something from anywhere to anywhere, so long as you have the technology, which is extremely democratic and an example of how corporations no longer have a control over popular (folk) culture, look at this website and myspace for example, anyone can express themselves to as many people as they wish and to as many people who are willing to listen.

    Sure, you can codify anything and replicate it somewhere else with powerful enough computers, etc. But, could you transfer a person’s soul with the replication of their body somewhere else? Somehow I doubt it, even if you gained the technology to achieve teleportation!! But you see, none of that is the point anyway. The point is, that the sort of person willing to research something like the mayan calender must be capable of getting absorbed by all the conspiracy theories, and that is what your man does, the one in the video. All the stuff where he is pointing to the future is infact just extrapolating contemporary conspiracy theories that are baseless and rediculous, and which are based on current perceptions. These are extrapolated into the future because they sound rediculous today, so must be pasted onto a future to sound the slightest bit verifiable.

    Many of them come from fundamentalist christians, such as the ones about aliens and reptilians. The alien one is that humans could not have got where they are today without evolution, therefore, to sustain arguments against evolution, one must dream up an alien race that planted us here. Same with reptilians (this will only make sense if you have listened to the rants of the conspiracy theory people!!), that reptilian conspiracy is the only way to explain why we retain artifacts of reptile (and other animal types), in our DNA, as seen in the growth of a human feotus, without accepting evolution. But most conspiracy theory people don’t realise that they are infact being sucked in by people like scientologists. Complete nonsense, so keep it real!!

    In the meantime, I’m willing to look at the mayan thing and look for evidence for it, as and when it comes, but like with the house price crash, I will not be led into extrapolating current experience and misconceptions into the future. I think that we are going through massive changes, but it is more likely that they bring us more down to earth. Very unlikely that the revolution will be truly out there. Because it is about the common man having a true place in the world and in society, in harmony with nature. That is the true revolution, so we don’t need etherial nonsense to understand the changes that are required.

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  • Last days,

    I know it sounds mad, but after studying the cycle theories of Fred Harrison, Martin Armstrong, Kondratieff, Oswald Spengler, and Robert Prechter over the last 18 months, the outcome in the next few years was at best, a mega world depression, and worst, the end of western civilization. All depressing stuff really.

    The common theme in all the analysis is that the further you look back in time the more you understand. I believe this was Churchill’s quote. Then I came across Lungold/Calleman’s interpretation of the Mayan Calendar which took cycle theory as far back as it could go -all the way back to the big bang – 16 billion years ago.

    In summary, their cycle theory says that not only is evolution cyclical but also exponential, with an end date in late 2011.
    Now in my head I have the concept of a “unified cycle theory” which I need to convert to a website as it is pretty complicated stuff.

    The Lungold/Calleman’s interpretation of the Mayan Calendar was the first postive stuff I had read. This is because the destruction that has to take place is necessary in order for the evolutionary process to progress to the next level of consciousnesss.

    I haven’t read all of Prechter’s book but what were his crazy predictions?

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  • planning4acrash says:

    Yes, but it gets muddied with conspiracy theories when they start to predict the future.

    Just a last point, my perception of time allows for eternal life, because, if time is just physical change here and now, and the soul is not physical, then the soul is not subject to the physical manifestation of “time”, i.e. decay. Budubum, ching!

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  • Planning4acrash says:

    You need to read CHAOS, by James Gleick before you can begin to fully understand cycles.

    The web of life by fritjof capra is good, tho I don’t like his use of systems theory to explain consciousness because I am a spiritualist (is that a word?!).

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  • planning4acrash says:

    Oops, forgot to put in my password, so will repeat.

    S2R, you must read Chaos, by James Gleick to fully understand cycles.

    The web of life by Fritjof capra is also good, but goes too far when it associates the complexity of systems with consciousness.

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  • OK. I agree he shouldn’t have gone into specific predictions about Aliens and stuff.

    He should have left it vague and said any part of reality may be up for grabs.

    Anyone who has studied quantum physics knows the question that keeps returning is “Just how far down the rabbit hole do you want to go”.

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  • planning4acrash says:

    Those predictions are just repetition of well worn conspiracy theories, that, I reckon, originate in the minds of scientologists. Well, glad you’ve seen the light! Do read Chaos, tho, given that you have looked at quantum physics, I assume that you may well be a-tune with chaos theory, if not, check the amazon link beneath, you simply will never be able to understand systems or cycles properly without proper understanding of chaos theory:

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/Chaos-Making-Science-James-Gleick/dp/0749386061/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1204241201&sr=8-1

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  • planning4acrash says:

    I wasn’t refering to Pretcher, never read his book. I was refering to the video you posted!!

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