Sunday, February 3, 2008

David Smith counts skips on his street

The world is buoyant but UK rates have to fall

"readers will know I set great store by my "skip index", based on the number of builders’ skips in my street — two indicating the economy is on trend, four a boom, and none that we are in trouble. Despite extensive searching this past couple of weeks, sometimes at night, the index is still firmly on zero. Weak housing and subdued consumer confidence is taking its toll and I don’t suppose the weather is helping." The article also contains a strong pledge to cut rates... desperate!!! This is the final proof that this buffoon is a heavily geared BTL investor... count the skips, prop the housing market!

Posted by confused76 @ 09:18 AM (1227 views)
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18 thoughts on “David Smith counts skips on his street

  • I posted this comment:
    BoE cannot cut rates without sacrificing the Pound and importing more inflation from Continental Europe. Expect 0.25% cut in February and a long draught thereafter.
    Regarding the piece titled Home Economics in today’s Times…
    David famously said that house prices are “sticky downwards”. Well, that is proven not to be the case (Spain, US).
    The general misconception by commentators is that weak economic growth and unemployment are necessary triggers for a crash. While “sufficient”, these preconditions are not “necessary” in debt -fueled economies like US and UK. The US is a clear example. House prices started to tumble with high GDP growth and unemployment at all time low 4%.
    A UK house price crash in 2008 is increasingly certain. BTLetters, who rely on capital gains to achieve acceptable investment returs, are leaving the market. The FTB demand has dried out. The only “strong” fundamental of the UK housing market are planning restrictions. But with public finances becoming more constrained (unable to subsidize tenants and key workers) politicians will understand that high price inflation does more bad than good to society.
    Prices to bottom out at -20% in 2010.

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  • it_is_going_with_a_bang says:

    Skip index my ar5e!

    What this fool says has more to do with which banking executive he has has dinner with this week.
    Nothing to do with skips and trains lol.

    Reply
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  • I saw that confused. Good that it got through – normally he doesn’t allow too bearish opinions on his blog lest it unsettle the readership.

    bang, David Smith once wrote about “stuffy city types” – the kind of thing you would expect from Alan Partridge. This pretty much means that no-one with any influence has anything to do with him. He is out on his own, ranting about how everyone apart from him has it wrong, even though recent history has proven him to be the most reliable at getting it completely wrong.

    A few years ago he said that the US had had a soft landing for housing (they didn’t). A few months ago he said UK house prices would rise at a more modest rate (they haven’t). Then he said that prices would fall but be countered by rises (they haven’t). Now he says that prices will fall but they will be shortlived (seeing a trend?)

    Like Alan Partridge having a strong track record for mostly bad television, David Smith has a strong track record for mostly bad, blinkered journalism.

    I’m not sure why The Times still employs him. Maybe it’s because only elderly Tories read it.

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  • So cutting rates is a no-brainer? A combination of Bush’s $150 billion fiscal boost and the Fed’s big rate cut convinced the markets that there was big trouble, long-term Treasury bond yields went up and with them went long-term lending rates. Ask Americans whether those rate cuts have decreased their mortgage payments.

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  • nopensionnohouse says:

    **** News flash **** Local industrial estate taking off in a major way. 1000% returns guaranteed. No – wait, I live near a skip hire place. Easy mistake to make.

    It’s almost worth finding out where he lives and hiring a load of skips to put in his street.

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  • Oh god, here we go again. Another financial wheeze begging for rate cuts. Don’t these fools realise that the real danger of recession comes from higher energy costs, with the weakening of Sterling exacerbating this. Indeed that is the very reason the major energy companies have announced double-digit price rises for domestic customers. EdF, Eon, Iberdrola and Co earn their profits in EUROS. As Sterling falters they have to compensate.

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  • little professor says:

    Site’s down, or at least throwing up a “403 – Forbidden” error code.

    Maybe he’s blocking all referrals from HPC?

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  • He lives in a grotty bit of East London, near the booming Thamesmeade development, for which you can no longer secure a mortgage because of falling prices and it being built on a stinking tip.

    http://www.networksolutions.com/whois/results.jsp?domain=economicsuk.com

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  • The site’s up alright. You know he once came on here and posted a protest at people pillaging his site, calling everyone small minded and stupid.

    Again an extraordinarily Alan Partidgesque statement to make.

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  • nopensionnohouse says:

    @ Paul – Bloody hell!!! How easy is it to get someones address and phone numbers!!!

    Yikes!

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  • “Bloody hell!!! How easy is it to get someones address and phone numbers!!!”

    More difficult than you might think nopension, assuming the person is sensible and understands the implications of giving their home address as the domain owner, not a business address.

    Obviously, this requires common sense, which alas Mr Smith and his brother do not have.

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  • >>Despite extensive searching this past couple of weeks, sometimes at night, the index is still firmly on zero.

    Why am I not surprised that Mr Smith goes hunting for skips at night!!
    A picture of Smith in full army fatigues crawling on his belly around London streets of an evening quite amuses me.

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  • I really am fed up with all this hysterical shite demanding rate cuts. How high do these morons want inflation to go?

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  • Couldn’t agree more Fed Up – inflation is real and will effect everyone, a rate cut will only affect those of us sensible enough, foolhardy enough, to bother saving anything for a rainy day. It’s raining and the MPC, Bankers, government are all trying to steal our umbrellas, so they can sell them back to us at vastly INFLATED prices.
    THE BANKS WILL NOT DROP THEIR LENDING RATE, BUT WILL ANIHILATE THE SAVINGS RATES GIVEN EVEN A SNIFF OF A CUT – LOOK AT BARCLAYS, SAVINGS RATES HAVE DROPPED BY 75Bps, WHILE THE BoE HAS ONLY DROPPED THEIR RATE BY 25Bps…………..NICE?????

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  • it_is_going_with_a_bang says:

    He even looks like an EA.

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  • Take Me Back To London! says:

    It must be said that David Smith’s articles always have a certain uninformed quality about them.

    His scribblings are a complete waste of time for anyone with a serious interest in economics to read, apart from what I must admit to myself is a perverse amusement in reading such [email protected]

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    denzil,

    “picture of Smith in full army fatigues crawling on his belly around London streets of an evening quite amuses me.”
    ho ho ho. very funny

    The IR cuts will come guys as the bust gets worse.
    Reason: a depression is worse than inflation

    Expect a dead cat bounce or partial reflation of HP in 2009 before the final collapse.

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  • Can I send an email to this guy? I’d love to get his views on where the markets are all heading the next day, sounds like a great person to oppose and make some big profits!!!!

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