Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Unifying cycle theories part II

The Business Cycle And the Future

Following on from yesterdays post, blogger M3 correctly points out that I missed out Armstrong. His 8.6 year Global Business Cycle captures the essence of nature. His predictions have been so good that the CIA demanded the model. Armstrong said no to the CIA and a few months later ended up in prison where he has now been for 8 years on contempt of court.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:19 AM (1814 views)
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15 thoughts on “Unifying cycle theories part II

  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    M3 (from yesterday)

    You said:
    “robert prechter’s initial prediction (in his various books) was that 2000 marked the top of the wave from the 1700s and very possibly the dark ages. however, he now reckons that we are only in wave 4 at the largest scale.”

    I said
    “Traditional K-theorists were expecting a depression after the 2000 tech bubble burst. Stocks hit new highs in 2007 blowing them out of the water. Following on from above it looks like the 2000 peak was Elliott wave 1 of a new cycle that will complete in 2011. The 2002 low would have been wave 2. The 2007 high wave 3. If we a get a stocks low in 2008 (wave 4) then they take off we could see a new high of Elliott wave 5 in 2009.”

    I did not know Prechter said that. We basically are saying the same thing.
    Do you know why Prichter changed his mind?
    For me it was Calleman’s analysis of the Mayan calendar.

    I think it is possible for both Elliott wave cycles to exist together
    1. Elliott wave 5 of a 300 year cycle to have completed and the downleg of a-b-c in in force (DJIA priced in gold) (3 K-cycles in total)
    2. Elliott wave 4 to complete in 2008, wave 5 to complete in 2009 of a 5000 year cycle that completes in 2011. (DJIA priced in dollars) (3 Spenger cycles in total)

    We can really see how all these cycle theories fit together. Elliott, Armstrong, Kondratieff, Spengler, and Calleman’s interpretation of the Mayan Calendar.

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  • Sorry, Mr sold 2 rent 1, but I’m not interested!

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  • Don’t forget the 11 year sun spot cycle. Although this may seem irrelevant, it does affect our climate, and thus agricultural production. The next sunspot maximum is due to occur around 2012. Satellites are particularly vulnerable to CME’s which become more frequent during sunspot maxima. Imagine the damage that would be caused to the global economy in the event that most of our communications satellites were knocked out of action.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    Sorry it was mony who mentioned Armstrong.
    Here is his graph

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  • Sometimes I worry a bit about the postings on site!

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    This can all be related to house prices


    We can clearly see the Elliott wave pattern in house price affordability from the 50% drop that ended in 1956.
    This graph has a similar timeframe to a k-cycle with a lag of 7-8 years to stocks.

    The question is will house prices follow stocks and have another Elliott wave pattern that is even bigger than the 50 year span shown here.
    I think there is a possibility as stocks are only going up because fiat money is devaluing.

    We could well see both patterns.
    1. An Elliott wave a-b-c HPC of 50% where houses are priced in gold
    2. We are entering wave 2 of a 5 wave pattern that completes in 2011-2012 were house prices priced in fiat currency go though the roof.

    This makes it more imperative that physical gold is obtained and stored in your possession.

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  • 1. Yes: Business cycles do exist. There is a natural process of cyclical expansion and contraction as the economy tries to find its natural path. The housing market is just one example of a natural economic cycle.
    2. No: You can’t predict or time them. Cycles are only visible in retrospect; the neatly smoothed lines in textbooks make the cycles look deceptively predictable. Few people have been able to accurately predict the housing market.

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  • I prefer ‘Horace Batchelors famous infradraw method’ myself.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    rickyb,

    “Don’t forget the 11 year sun spot cycle.”

    It may be worse than that. Recent scientific analysis suggests that the next solar maximum in 2012 could be 30-50% higher than the previous one.

    Also, Earth’s ability to shield itself through its magnetic field is reducing. Earth’s magnetic intensity has dropped 38% since its peak 2000 years ago. It has lost 7% in the last 100 years. There is evidence that as it weakens the pace of weakening speeds up.

    Earth’s polarity has reversed 171 times in 75 million years. 14 times in that last 4.5 million years. A weakening magnetic field can be a precursor to polar reversal.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    One line stands out in the article

    “As long as not everyone believes, the cycle will exist forever”

    Is Armstrong saying that if we all believe his cycle then it will cease to exist.
    After the sell-off on 27 February 2007 (which marked the top of the banking sector) I can see massive sell orders going in on 23 April 2009 (the next top)
    It could be a self full-filling prophecy. What then for the business cycle?

    We can take this one step further and say what will happen when everyone realizes that the debt-based banking system is based on a flawed concept of ever increasing amounts of debt.

    And how about if the Large Hadron Collider atom smaher allows us to test a unified theory of everything. How will that change us?

    In 1909, Geoffrey Ingram Taylor, a British physicist, devised the famous Double Split Experiment and began a revolution in the way we view ourselves in the universe. The bottom line of his experiment was that the mere presence of consciousness in a room – people – affected the way the quantumn particles (the stuff our world is made of) behaved.

    Quantumn food for thought.

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  • Techieman – are you there? Since we are looking at wave theory here I’d be interested in your comments on the fall in retail shop share prices this morning. Did the theories you use predict the price falls? My wife tells me that the clothes that M & S are selling at the moment are very dull and that is why their sales fell off over Christmas. How could Elliot predict that? I can see that it may predict some of the over-reaction to the news by predicting the investor emotion, but not the event itself. But I’m open to persuasion. Comments?

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  • Cornishman- Indeed a very poor set of figures for M&S and their share price has reflected it.

    I don’t personally think that their product offer is to blame (all retailers product offer could improve of course).

    Their market update comes off the back of very poor news from Next (whose product offer has become increasingly bland) and bad news from other retailers this week.

    The really worrying thing is that the only thing that has held sales levels up at all for most retailers was heavy discounting, which has badly erroded their margins.

    Certainly in general merchandise and clothing retail, there has again been price deflation this year.

    Non-food retailers have all the inflation in their cost base, but reduced margins and sales that are at best static.

    The food retailers will be fine, they will just screw their suppliers when things get tough, as they always do.

    Watch out for some big names to go bust over the next few months, Woolworths, Adams Childrenswear, Ethel Austin are my best guesses.

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