Monday, January 7, 2008

Trying to predict the future

LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD

Looking down the road is always a good idea if you want to know where you are going and avoid any problems. And you can look in a rear view mirror to see where you have come from and, more importantly, what dangers may lurk behind you. Trying to look down the road for direction in markets is of course different then driving a car. But many analysts try, including me, because being able to anticipate or analyse dangers that may lie ahead is important for everyone's financial health.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:29 PM (589 views)
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9 thoughts on “Trying to predict the future

  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    “They say history repeats itself. But they also say that those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it. Cycles are a part of nature and they are a part of history. The evidence of the Kondratieff cycle has been proven over and over again and we appear to be once again on the downside of the cycle. But could we also be entering the winter of the Spengler cycle (decline of a civilization)? We have no argument that technology and innovation may yet help us weather many of the challenges that we will face in the next century. And they most certainly will but it may not prove enough.”

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    So we are at the end of a house price boom, which is the biggest in a series of 3 (Elliott wave number 5). (5 waves spanning 50 years)
    HPC 1974, 1992, 2010

    Plus we are at the end of a Kondratieff/Debt wave, which is the biggest in a series of 3 (Elliott wave number 5) (5 waves spanning 200 years)
    Depressions 1835, 1933 and 2011

    Are we entering a Spengler winter?
    The big question is … is this civilization Elliott wave number 5.

    Anyone know the order and size of these civilzations?
    Indian
    Babylonian
    Egyptian
    Chinese
    Mexican (Mayan, Aztec)
    Arabian
    Classical (Greece and Rome)
    European-Western

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    From article
    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/chapmand101002.html

    The first civilization that rose and fell was the Neolithic Age that covered the rise of agriculture and the civilization of Sumner (7000 BC – 3200 BC).

    The Bronze Age saw the rise and fall of the Egyptian empire (3200 BC – 1500 BC).

    The Greco/Roman Empire followed this roughly from 1500 BC to 500 AD.

    The rise of Western Civilization began in the dark ages (spring 500-1000), rose through the Middle Ages culminating in the Renaissance (summer 1000-1500), and hits its zenith in the Industrial and Electronic Age (autumn 1500-2000?).

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    So we have 4 blocks of civilizations.

    Let us just take the last 3 civilizations as the written word only came around about 3100 BC; plus there is a natural block of 5125 years (3113 BC-2012 AD) that is the Mayan Calendar.

    Elliott wave number:
    1. Egyptian empire (3200 BC – 1500 BC).
    3. Greco/Roman Empire (1500 BC to 500 AD)
    5. Western Civilization (500 AD – now)

    There we go.
    Our Civilization is in the final blow off phase of a 5000 year cycle.

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  • rocket robbie says:

    s2r1

    Just wanted to say thanks for the good advice on Gold (so far anyway) i have invested in mining companies and at bullionvault and so far everything is looking good!!

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  • s2r1 – you forgot about Atlantis.

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  • george monsoon says:

    What about the Demi wave, surely that carries some weight…;O)

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:





    We know gold and silver decline in a Kondratieff autumn (1982-2000).
    Looks like they also decline during the Spengler autumn (1490 – 2000)

    That’s it. Gold and silver to the moon.
    But don’t forget to exchange it all for an Island in the Pacific before 21 December 2012.

    As the graph says – are we headed for a new world.

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