Saturday, January 5, 2008

Shut up, will you?

You're talking us into a recession

Gloomy pundits are in danger of talking the country into a recession, senior Labour figures have warned. Ministers say the fundamentals of the economy are sound, with inflation low, employment high and interest rates coming down. But they believe commentators' repeated warnings of a recession may scare consumers so much they stop spending - bringing about the downturn everyone fears.

Posted by little professor @ 12:18 PM (2565 views)
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29 thoughts on “Shut up, will you?

  • Interesting thing is that it’s the mirrors readers who may end up suffering the most so rather than slag off the mirror they can simply be classed as another VI.

    When their readers feel the pinch one of the easiest ways to save money and help their finances is to stop buying a newspaper i.e. The Mirror!

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  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    If vacuously talking it up got us into this mess, perhaps meaningfully talking it down will get us out of this mess.

    Or is Robber Broon casting about for someone to blame but himself?

    In any case, once everyone admits the emperor has no clothes on, there’s no going back to fantasy island – the delusion is pricked.

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  • The Mirror: never has a paper been so aptly named. “Mirror, mirror, on the wall – Am I the fairest of them all?” “of course you are my dear”. Ministers know the economy is on a dodgy footing. Inflation is rising, unemployment as well.IR are only going down because we are in the doo-doo paying for the “have it now, worry later” boom engineered by the former chancellor. We’re now paying for Northern Wreck and the Government hopes that it’s book is worth what their manages say it is. The last thing the chancellor needs is for a HPC to make the NR fiasco into Northerngate as book values tumble making a huge waste of taxpayers money a reality. A couple of calls, and the “on message” Mirror dutifully obliges. Try looking out of the window, reality isn’t visible in the mirror.

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  • I think there was a misprint there, it should have read Labour minister’s warn their own actions are taking us into a recession and we’ve all noticed now, damn…

    Oh wait, no, silly me, that would be labour telling the truth *tsk* now where did I get an idea like that from, I dunno!

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  • little professor says:

    Try looking out of the window, reality isn’t visible in the mirror.

    Great line xD

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  • justwatching says:

    What effect will the 15%ish energy price rise have on the fudged inflation figure?

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  • House Monkey says:

    I was only 14 at the time but I remember the exact same phrase being used by John Major’s Tory government…. before and during the last recession

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  • “About 63 per cent of people questioned said they had been refused credit in 2007 – up from 54 per cent the previous year”.

    ………..and it’s all the fault of “Gloomy pundits”……you are having a larf !

    After the Weimar republic, Adolf blamed the Communists and the Jews for all the nation’s problems. Brown has nobody to blame but himself….but he will try to wriggle out of it…..Just watch over the coming weeks!

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  • Just watching – I think you answered your own question

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  • what a load of utter [email protected] if the scene wasn’t ripe for a crash or recession, then it wouldn’t happen would it? it’s going pear shape because people are genuinely feeling the pinch. if they can’t possibly get the money, they can’t spend it, simple. Inflation figures have been fudged way too long, but the shortfall from earnings made up by cheap credit. Turn off the credit supply, as we are seeing, and sure people will have to stop spending. Then watch the unemployment figures rocket. hmmmm sound economy fundamentals, my @rse.

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  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    it will go down.

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  • “Gloomy pundits are in danger of talking the country into a recession, senior Labour figures have warned” – If the pundits can talk the country into a recession surely they can just as easily talk the country out of one – so what is the problem and why are they getting so wound up?

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  • “Ministers say the fundamentals of the economy are sound, with inflation low, employment high and interest rates coming down.”

    What I notice is that two of these points concern the money supply. The last is simply unemployment. Considering that any viable economy has to have about 5% unemployment (phillips curve) and that current unemployment is running at 5.5%.

    Shouldn’t ministers be a little more concerned with the actual structure of the economy that just the money supply? It seems to me the mechanic is more concerned with the oil than the state of the engine.

    Issues they should be concerned with:
    Average house price is £220,195 while average earnings is about 23k. That’s a multiple of 9x. This SCREAMS problem!

    25% of the UK GDP is generated by activity in the Finance Sector. I’m all for David Ricardo’s theory of Comparative Advantage, but this would still concern me greatly. Especially with what is happening in the States.

    Energy; We have the option to buy France’s excess gas. We also import gas from Russia. Given the latest political situation and character in regards to Russia, and the fact the France will only sell us what they don’t require (I don’t see how a hard winter here won’t be felt across the channel) this is a very severe problem.

    I could go on, but that facts excape me: There have been a number of interesting stories concerning health and education recently. And transport.

    And what the economists are talking about is ‘money supply’. We learnt the lesson of money supply in 1929. I think we have that issue covered in the 70 odd years that have past.

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  • Asking peeps not to talk about economic realities is a bit like asking passengers on the Titanic to sit and watch the orchestra as the ship goes down.

    Controlling people’s behaviour when their well being is in genuine danger is a fighting a losing battle; like trying to hold back a breaking dam.

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  • Errrrrm… Sound fundamentals, right?

    £1.4 trillion of debt (the highest per capita in Eurpoe).
    Inflation at 4-5% (not the manipulated rate of 2.1% Crash is fond of referring to).
    Employment mainly in the ‘public sector’.

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  • Dumb Labour politicians, spouting someone else’s well worn cliches. Confidence is based on one’s assessment – and the obvious assessment now is that things are pretty bad. Perhaps not so bad for politicians: they are about to give themselves a big pay rise, and then there is all those expenses fiddles they can do to reduce the cost of their housing. “Don’t panic: we’re all right Jack.”

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  • if this is the case then railfares, gas, electric, food and wages have not gone up and inflation is still low????? What am I missing here

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  • Thatcher accused the economists of talking the country into recession…..what was the term, clinical recession?

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  • Noone can believe a market keeps growing over normal banbk interest for ever – it’s not a matter of if, but when. A bit side-stage, but lets see what happens in the highly credit dependent industries. We’ve seen brown goods falter, fashion….. look out for boats. I think this industry will siffer as people simply can’t get the funds together…. I know this sector – a massive proportion is sold on finance. Expect poor results.

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  • Low IRs, Low Unemployment and a sound economy ( debatable that one ) >>>>> However you have to ask where do recessions start? they dont happen when things are rock bottom – Isnt that common sense.

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  • I guess there can be self-fulfilling prophecies in Finance but blaming the forthcoming recession on a few media articles is simply not honest.

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  • Oh dear – a desperate and venomous attack on the people who they have used repeatedly to peddle lies. How labour has the gall to tell the media to shut up is astonishing.

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  • This is merely the work of Liebour’s spin-people. In order to have some one else to blame when things go pear-shap, they’ve started peddling this rubbish early. You can bet your bottom dollar that when the economy is in pieces, Liebour will be saying that the media talked us into a recession rather then saying it was their incompetent policies.

    Out of interest, can anyone remember how Liebour responded when Thatcher said economists talked us into recession?

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  • crash bandicoot says:

    It is a sad time when the government suggests that our economy is so weak that it can be broken just by talking about it. Perhaps this is what is meant by the term “miracle economy”. It’s a miacle that it has held together for so long!

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  • it_is_going_with_a_bang says:

    Thats it … it’s not Gordon’s fault.
    There was a crash because we talked about it.
    I thought there was such a thing as freedom of speech.
    Apparantly not quite so free.
    It’s ok for Gordon to stand up infront of the country and say how well he is doing and what a brilliant job he’s done, but as soon as anyone questions his wisdom you get accused of “causing” something bad.
    I thought that was the stuff of dictatorships not of the free world.

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  • Wasn’t Alistair Campbell – a Daily Mirror journalist?

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  • It’s really simple: If you won the lottery tomorrow, would you buy UK property as an investment? Anyone who can say “yes” to this is in a fast falling minority. Gordon Brown needs the market to keep bouyant since the credit dream lives off of equity withdrawal secured on your house. We keep hearing salaries are not going up, so the spend is therefore credit-based. Lose that equity value, and bye-ze-bye to all that growth. UK Governments will do anything to keep it going – knowing that inflation is the next Goverments problem. Look at all the high street sales – total flops. Food retailers are the exception, as we’ve got to eat. Doesn’t take a brown nose to work out it’s not working anymore. Game over, insert lots of coins.

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  • Personally I think there should be mandatory drug testing of all politicians.

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  • It’s another marker-stone on the road map to oblivion. When politicans start using arguments like this you know the game is up because if the only argument left is to blame commentators for discussing the truth then you’ve played your last card. This is the last desperate pleadings of a government which knows it has lost the game. All that is left now is in-fighting (as they jockey for position in the aftermath) and the inevitable pain, pain, PAIN for the majority of the British public.

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