Friday, January 4, 2008

How long before the Poles give up their British dream…

Brazilians giving up their American dream

In the last half year, the reverse migration has become unmistakable among Brazilians in the United States. Homeward-bound Brazilians point to a slumping American economy, coupled with the steep drop in the value of the dollar against the currency of Brazil, where the economy has improved. Some are leaving after losing homes in the subprime mortgage crisis. More Brazilians are leaving than arriving - the reversal of an upward curve that seemed unstoppable as recently as 2005, when Brazilians were sneaking across the United States-Mexico border in record numbers. "I believe we lost 5,000 Brazilians this year [in Massachusetts]" he said. "The landlords are going to face a crisis soon." ----- How long before this happens with the Poles, the Russians, and other recent immigrants to Britain?

Posted by drewster @ 01:24 AM (1135 views)
Please complete the required fields.



15 thoughts on “How long before the Poles give up their British dream…

  • soon hopefully.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    “How long before this happens with the Poles, the Russians, and other recent immigrants to Britain?”
    Spot on

    I was in Ireland last week and 25,000 people in the construction industry were to be laid off over xmas.
    Ireland’s HP cycle is 12 months ahead of ours

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • In fact when Greece and Portugal joined the EU there was massive migration to the other countries. This reversed after a while when their economies improved as well. However for Poles there is a special attraction with regard to the UK and it might have something to do with history and 1939..

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • ”How long before this happens with the Poles, the Russians, and other recent immigrants to Britain?”

    Obviously they aren’t going to hang around if there isn’t any money to be made. Most of thoese folks want to get back to their families.

    I was in Paris – on business – recently and got talking to one of my companies finance guys in Poland. He was saying that there is very high demand for builders, in Poland, coz so many have come to UK; it therefore seems that Poland may start to look very attractive to them.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • @maddison ”However for Poles there is a special attraction with regard to the UK and it might have something to do with history and 1939..”

    No!

    It is because there is money here to be made in construction…so many folks have had extensions etc build in order to increase the value of their homes. Not to mention the speculators.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Not soo long. I am from Czech Rep. and after fall of comunism I was shocked in Britain how poor the people are there. Everything was more polished OK, but everybody was complaining about HIGH property and rental prices. It was 1995!!!!! Here most people owned their houses without morgage and 1/2 owned 2nd home as well. Have the communists allowed private business as in China, they will run the country even now. Czech is one of few countries from east block, which has biger influx of westerners than emigration to the west. Other factor of quality of life is that I am used to go and eat out in the pub with coworkers, It is unthinkable in western “sandwich society”.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • YEA THE POLES AND THE LIKE SHALL LEAVE THIS COUNTRY IN THERE DROVES,TO THEM ITS ALL ABOUT MONEY, THEY SHALL LEAVE A SINKING SHIP LIKE A RAT DOES (IM NOT SAYING THEY ARE RATS BY THE WAY!!)ONCE THE ECONOMY GOES T;TS UP THE VAST MAJORITY WILL BE OUT OF HERE….

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • I know a lot of Poles through work and a lot say that will stay, which is a good thing as they’re hard workers and generally keep their head down, as they’ve made relationships here and a life which is incomparable to the Poland they grew up in.

    But enough will go back over the next few years for their to be a huge gap in the rental market in the areas they’ve settled in.

    The ones I know in Streatham often pay slightly over the odds for their flats (cause they don’t the market rates) and they are often in conditions, areas and roads that Brits wouldn’t want to live.

    Its this area of the market which is probably allowing speculative BTL landlords to “get away with it” more than anything else – and I can’t wait for these landlords to realise that no one else will move into their fleapits in dodgy areas if and when they do leave… and then be unable to sell cause no ones buying BTL anymore!

    ha!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • C'mon Correction says:

    I expect to see a large out-flux of immigrants over the next 10 years, starting properly in about a years time. It will help lead to a secondary phase of falling house prices and more importantly falling rents/stagnation in about 2 years from now.

    It is factors such as these which contribute to a longer down-turn in the decreasing HPI cycle. That is why I’ll resist to buying when I see prices fall by 10-20% over the next two years, and wait, save, rent cheaply and then hopefully buy 5 years from now at 40% lower in real terms than the peak prices seen of late.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • ”a lot say they will stay”

    They might not have any choice, once their work dries up and unemployment starts increasing. There isn’t any north sea oil to pay the unemployment benefit bill this time either….

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • I wonder how these eastern european’s will view things when the Pound goes through the floor and the money that they are earning here becomes worth a lot less in terms of their national currency. Coupled with the fact that lots of them are employed in construction, and construction employment will fall dramatically, things will not be attractive for them at all in this country. There own countries, being relative new entrants to the EU will probaby be having major infra structure development paid for by aid from the EU to improve there countries.
    This will result in booming construction within their countries. The picture will start to look far more rosey back home.

    Most of these Eastern europeans have come from different political and economic systems, thus I wonder if they have had much experience in seeing recessions coming and how quick a recession can turn a booming industry into a industry thats slumped. At the moment everything must seem great to them, they must feel that they are in the
    ‘promised land’, but thta is going to change soon.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • That’s when ‘British jobs for British Workers’ becomes a very sore point!!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • sid, “A lot say they will stay”
    That’s precisely the point of the article – a lot of the Brazilians originally said they would stay forever in the states, but changing economic conditions have prompted them to change their minds. Most notably it’s the growth of Brazil’s economy and the decline of America’s economy which is making them reevaluate the situation. On this side of the pond, Russia is booming thanks to oil and Poland is growing at double the rate of the UK. See also this article for details:
    Guardian: Poland’s growth will draw migrants home, says bank
    “November 9, 2007. Rapid economic growth in eastern European countries is providing a big attraction to east European workers, who could soon start to return home from the west, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said yesterday.”

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • As a second generation ‘Pole’ (parents arrived 1946, no prizes for guessing why) with contacts in the latest wave of immigrants i would like to offer a little insight.

    The pound is dropping in value, the Polish zloty is rising in value, yes there is a shortage of any kind of workers in Warsaw for example, which has zero unemployment. A friend of mine who is also a second generation immigrant like me and now lives in Poland as a permanent resident (some of us do go back, as you know life in the UK is not all that attractive), is in Warsaw and they have a shortage of IT staff, Accountants and General Office staff.

    I also know of people that emmigrated to the US to work about 3 years ago but because of the fall of the value of the dollar they are planning to return in the spring, they were even advertising cheap shopping trips from Poland to the US on a popular news Polish website 2 days ago. Yes the same will happen here because whereas 2 years ago it was 6.5 zl to a pound it is now close to 5.0 and dropping every month. Of course most of them will go back home. Also things are improving in Poland but attitudes are hard to change because they do see the UK as the promised land and everything Polish as backward, although that attitude is also changing.

    What you all should not forget is that immigrants have always been used as a source of cheap labour in the UK, this is how it has been and will not change, how would businesses make money if there was no cheap labour available. If the ‘Poles’ go back then expect the restrictions on Romanian and Bulgarian workers to be lifted, if you have any doubts as to how long the Romanians might stay in the UK, just look up what the average Romanian salary was for 2007.

    PS Hopefully ‘sparko’ your comment is related to HPC and nothing more, I do find any comments about immigrants in general seem to be aimed solely at Eastern (really Central) Europeans, because (how can this be put politely) they are a soft ‘politically correct’ target.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • The real problem is with those that are not here for work. The truth is many of these so called hard working immigrants make up a very large percentage of our over-crowed prisons. I have no doubt that many will leave when work becomes scarce. However,I’m not certain that a life of leisure and hand outs might not seem appealing if and when they do become unemployed. In any case the objective (as far as the elite few are concerned) has been met. They have driven down wages.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



Add a comment

  • Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
  • Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user´s views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
  • Please adhere to the Guidelines

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>