Wednesday, January 2, 2008

House prices to fall for first time in 15 years

House prices to fall for first time in 15 years

The average home will lose £8,000 or more of its value this year, experts have warned

Posted by phil @ 06:33 PM (520 views)
Please complete the required fields.



4 thoughts on “House prices to fall for first time in 15 years

  • Remember that anything less than a 4% rise is a fall in real terms. This has been going on for some time now.

    Have we heard any more from the city slickers who are running a book on the Nationwide/Halifax Index futures 12 months hence?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • House prices were still falling in 1996. hang on , just let me count on my fingers ……er, that makes 12 years. And thats an economist writing for that tory ass wiping rag. Go on give us a job please.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Mike Livingstone says:

    Nice last few lines: “David Owen, the chief European economist at Dresdner Kleinwort, said there had only been four times since the Second World War when average house prices were more than seven times disposable incomes: 1948, 1979, 1988 and 2007.

    In each previous case, house prices then dropped by 30 per cent, adjusted for inflation.”

    Now lets talk about 30 per cent adjusted for inflation – I assume the last instances arose when inflation, but more particularly wage inflation was higher than it now is. So lets take future wage inflation at say 2.2%, therefore we could see houses down at least 23% in nominal terms over the next 3 years.

    Today’s £500k house might sell for just £385k in 2011.

    So I were buying now I think I’d want to offer at 30% below the asking price for the following reasons:
    a) Houses usually achieve between 94% and 98% of theasking price, so let take 94 and have the 6% discount.
    b) If the house is worth 23% less in 3 years time, I want to offer that price.

    I’ll take 29% (23+6) and round it to 30%.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • I think a fall of £8,000 is quite optimisitic.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



Add a comment

  • Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
  • Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user´s views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
  • Please adhere to the Guidelines

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>