Monday, January 14, 2008

First govt figures to include effects of credit crunch?

UK house prices fall by 0.8% in a single month according to latest government figures

Note that the Communities and Local Government house price index figures released in this issue are based on completions during the month of November. Other recent indicators have been based on asking prices in December or prices based on mortgages approved during December. Therefore the Communities and Local Government figures are not directly comparable with these other indicators. - I reckon this is highly significant - CL

Posted by converted lurker @ 10:15 AM (1063 views)
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8 thoughts on “First govt figures to include effects of credit crunch?

  • As we’ve mentioned before, there is a lot of noise in past six months’ figures because of the staggered introduction of HIPs. The dates were:
    – 1st August 2007: properties with 4+ bedrooms
    – 10th Sept 2007: properties with 3 bedrooms
    – 14th Dec 2007: all other properties
    There was a flood of 4+ bedroom properties placed on the market before August; this would have made the statistics released in September/October appear higher than normal. Equally, a lot of 1- and 2-bed properties (“luxury” flats in Liverpool and Sheffield) were placed on the market prior to 14th December, so we can expect the February/March stats to look lower than normal.

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  • “The fall in UK prices between October and November can be attributed to decreases in average prices for detached houses (2.4 per cent), bungalows (0.9 per cent), flats (0.6 per cent) and semi-detached houses (0.3 per cent). It is partly offset by a small rise in the price of terraced houses (less than 0.1 per cent).
    Scotland saw an increase in house price inflation in November 2007 from 13.9 per cent in October to 14.0 per cent in November. England, Wales and Northern Ireland, though, saw decreases in house price inflation. In England house price inflation fell from 10.7 per cent in October to 9.1 per cent in November; In Wales inflation fell from 9.7 per cent in October to 5.9 per cent in November; In Northern Ireland house price inflation fell from 32.5 in October to 17.6 per cent in November 2007.”
    “Annual house price inflation in London was 14.1 per cent in November, down from 17.7 per cent in October”
    WOW the biggest drop was in London, and in detached… lots of froth coming off the market… the highest the climb the faster the plunge…. it is called gravity

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  • … and on the publication of these data, the sterling sheds another 0.5% versus the Euro… so houses lose another 0.5% in real terms… not bad for a Monday morning!

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  • Theboltonfury says:

    yeah, but don’t we all use the pound as opposed to Euro’s!!?? so a falling pound just kills the savings that we are trying to use to buy the houses with (eventually)

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  • Bolt
    I agree with you, but the pound demise ensures BoE will not cut rates, precipitates the exit of btletters and slows down immigration
    also it improves competitiveness of UK residual manufacturing and service industry
    A weak pound is a blessing

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  • European-bear says:

    I am in Europe but comtemplating returning to the UK sometime in the future. I am enjoying the double whammy of HPC and £ crash…..

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  • Confused76 – A weak pound is a blessing

    ………………………not if you have your savings in sterling and live/work overseas. Uncertainty will be the death of me.

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  • Bystander
    If your savings are to support your retirement and plan to retire here in the UK, you should be ok.
    The important thing with currencies is always to match income and expenses, savings and liabilities

    If not, my friend you better hedge yourself

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