Monday, January 7, 2008

Elliot wave number 5 for Kondratieff and Spengler

Cycles of History, Boom and Bust

Even if Elliott Wave Theory is mistaken and unscientific, the cycle of boom and bust is real enough. It is not pessimistic to say that the United States will eventually experience another Great Depression. It is realistic to make such a statement. But are we currently approaching the decisive psychological turning-point between optimism and pessimism? If it doesn’t come at the end of 2007 it will come, nonetheless, in 2008 or 2009. The world economy cannot expand indefinitely. There will be another Great Depression. And this revelation has military-political significance for Americans. It has national-survival significance.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 06:18 PM (921 views)
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7 thoughts on “Elliot wave number 5 for Kondratieff and Spengler

  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    “When the economic situation changes, when peak oil has its say, when the Middle East crisis cannot be solved, when American politics reduces to a sharp ideological division, when the real estate bubble continues to burst, what will happen? What will the Russians and Chinese do? For thousands of years the world was about war and dominance, the power of oligarchies and the exploitation of peasants. Does anyone believe that the world cannot revert back? Does anyone think that the fall of modern capitalism will result in any other outcome? “

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  • I’ve come across some doom laden sites on the web, since I started frequenting Housepricecrash, but this link takes you to the worst yet. Pity, the writer echoes my own darker fear that you can’t have a major bust without a major war.

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  • Do you see this sentence every time you post one of these articles?

    “2. Only add articles from reputable sources (e.g. BBC, major newspapers, banks/building societies, government departments)”

    Do you bother to read it?

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  • No need for that Jimmy. I think S2R is only trying to assist, and the BBc a reputable source? Hmmm!

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  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    I have to say, the sites that get posted do range broadly, from the skewed, politicised and unreliable establishment to Gold VIs and websites peddling get-rich-quick scams (moneyweek). At least we don’t have too many excursions into “Kathy’s angora-jumpered prophecies of doom blog” weird-and-baseless territory.

    I have to say that, when established powers/authorities no longer appear to have any interest in truth or the common good, it is far better to poll a wider spectrum, albeit one that includes a few outliers, in order not to get spoon-fed a cocoon of misdirection and propaganda.

    On the other hand, did anybody hear that speech on Radio 4 last night, from about 10:50 to 11 – it was incredible. I haven’t heard anything so reasoned, reasonable, intellectually stimulating and worth my time to listen to for a verl long time indeed. I’ll try and post the transcript if I can find it.

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  • techieman – the vast majority of articles s2r is from these fringe sites. Many of them are plain nonsense, others scaremonger, and I’ve yet to see one with decent references. I’ve taken the wild claims of them apart before – see the little spat we had on exponential debt – but that takes a bit of time. When a visitor comes to a site, ostensibly about house prices and half the chat in a link is about the coming end of the Mayan calendar, what are they menat to think? Frankly, articles like this make the site look silly and, all that aside, are posted in contravention of the rules of the site itself.

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  • James, Point taken – but i find all this stuff interesting and this IS relevant. Of course you are entitled to your opinion and I mine, and s2r his. Clearly a line has to be drawn – some posts are clearly irrelant. However Keynesian , Austrian School, Elliott, Kondratieff are all relevant (whether you believe in them or not is surely your choice). Essentially(i’ll qualify that with an “in my view”) the markets (including debt and house prices) mirror mass physology so i cant see why any article pertaining to that shouldnt be included. Its really up to you whether or not you read or post something. BUT surely its better to post something that others may think relevant than not post?

    I have personally posted stuff i think relevant but others might not. Including my view on the price of Gold and how to invest in it (I have no VI in ithat – except when i’m long and then the views actions of a few hundered people on this site wont make much difference.

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