Thursday, January 3, 2008

Delayed Reaction?

House Prices Nov 2007

The latest from the Land Registry issued 11:00 today which shows completions in November - mostly from "sale agreed" 3 months before. Annual growth is unchanged from last month at 8.1%, but traditionally August/September sales recover after July. It also shows less activity, which must also indicate the way to go for future reports -> ie downwards!

Posted by growler @ 11:12 AM (574 views)
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5 thoughts on “Delayed Reaction?

  • the following is the land registry monthly price change sequence for London from Sept 2006 to the latest release (Nov 2007)
    2.0% — Sept 2006
    1.6%
    -0.6
    2.0
    1.1
    0.2
    0.7
    2.3
    1.0
    1.5
    1.0
    1.5
    1.3
    -0.6
    1.1 — Nov 2007

    Prices are softening but again these data suffer from time delay

    FAR MORE IMPORTANT, the year on year volume of transactions shows the extent of the market collapse. Yoy change in number of sold properties (England and Wales):

    +3% — Jan 2007 versus Jan 2006
    -2%
    4%
    -2%
    -10% — May, US house prices start to fall
    -11%
    -9%
    -15% — August 2007 vs aug 2006, credit crunch
    -12%
    -10%
    -26% — Nov 2007 versus Nov 2006 ====== MINUS TWENTYSIX PERCENT… WOW!!

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  • Time delay – many housebuying chains must have broken, hence the reduction in transactions. The apparent soft landing on prices is probably due to those chains which didn’t break. So, I may think that the house I’m buying could be bought for less if I wait, but I’m also selling, so that thinking could work against me. So, if I get the price I want for my house I’ll settle for buying at the price I agreed before the run on the Crock. Wait until the March figures, which will consist mainly of deals and chains formed post-Crock. I don’t think we’ll be thinking about a soft landing then.

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  • The Land Registry figures are an entirely accurate rear-view mirror – telling you exactly where you’ve been and not where you’re headed. As confused76 says extrapolating a reverse in decline from a figure which is 26% down on last year is wishful thinking of the highest order.

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  • “Drilling down” there appear to be a local reversals “bubbling” up with the MoM figures.

    Somewhere like Wandsworth with it’s over-paid lawers and red trouser types, only managed a 0.1% “gain”. This
    to me is a clear signal of an impending reversal. All ready looking forward to the next set out on the 29th Jan.

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  • new user 2007 says:

    Something perhaps more interesting is the composition of sales. Look at (I think) it was page 14….

    There was a near %age change collapse in properties in the sample valued at under 200k, while there was a %age change surge in properties valued at over 1mn.

    Even including for the fact that the cheaper properties still dominate the sample, this still implies prices were dragged up by the rich (according to another story released today on London Prime property has now also started falling…this has yet to be captured by the Registry).

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