Tuesday, January 15, 2008
A recovery rate of 3%? In your dreams bosos!
The notional value of CDS contracts globally is $45,000bn. That represents real underlying credits of about $5,000bn. The maximum rate of corporate defaults was about 3 per cent in the 1990s recession. However, corporate speculative grade bond defaults run as high as 10 per cent. A weighted default ratio of 5 per cent (3 per cent for investment grade and 10 per cent for sub-investment grade) would mean that credits with a par value of $250bn would default. Assuming an asset recovery ratio of 30 per cent, the hit would be $175bn.