December 2007 Archive

Sunday, December 30, 2007

Professor Shiller's View

Times Online: Tope Economist says America could Plunge into Recession

Losses arising from Americas housing recession could triple over the next few years and they represent the greatest threat to growth in the United States, one of the worlds leading economists has told The Times. Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University, predicted that there was a very real possibility that the US would be plunged into a Japan-style slump, with house prices declining for years.

Posted by bufferbear @ 11:39 PM 2 Comments

Unemployment to go up by 150,000 in 2008

BBC: Bleak prospects for UK job market

Next year would be "easily the worst since the Labour Government came to power in 1997". Add that to the other issues facing the housing market we're been discussing on here....

Posted by growler @ 11:13 PM 1 Comments

US Says: UK house prices are crashing

The Intellgence Daily: Brittania: Feed Us!

In my travels around the Hinternet, I spotted this one. Pretty stark article. A couple of main points: 1) Britain is actually bankrupt 2) UK house prices are crashing 3) Debt problem figures already as high as 1995 Interesting when someone outside the political (BBC) and media empires (Murdoch's Sky+Fox) is writing the story.

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 09:59 PM 7 Comments

A fresh coat of paint will re-ignite the market

Independent: On the edge in 2008: will house prices bump along the plateau, or are they about to fall off the cliff?

The housing market boom has finally run out of momentum, and fears are being voiced in some quarters that our biggest financial assets could go into reverse in 2008. The financial trepidation with which we are tiptoeing into the new year is almost tangible. Few doubt 2008 is going to be a year of uncertainty, if not living on the edge, and this is especially true in the housing market. "Meanwhile, consider other ways of boosting the value of your property perhaps an extension such as a loft conversion, or an upgrade to the kitchen"

Posted by jack c @ 06:49 PM 14 Comments

How low will it go?

Sunday Times: How low will it go?

The UK property market ends the year on a cliffhanger are we headed for an almighty crash or a steady slowdown? This time last year, as agents and analysts gathered around their spreadsheets and crystal balls, everyone was breathing a sigh of relief. The housing-market crash predicted by the gloomy Jeremiahs had not come to pass. Whats more, at the tail end of 2006, prices in some areas had even begun to turn upwards. The boom years were back on track.

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:15 PM 7 Comments

Cash is King

Mail: Cash overtakes property as prices fall

House price growth in 2007 will drop below 5% after more falls in December, according to the latest figures from the UK's largest building society. The fact house price rises in 2007 fell below 5% will be of particular interest to those with investment and retirement funds tied up in residential property. It means that cash savings accounts, with no risk of losing money, represent a better return on invested capital. They must have forgot all about the Rock crisis in stating "with no risk of losing money" - strange really when it is being propped up by approximtely 100bn worth of guarantees !

Posted by jack c @ 12:01 PM 3 Comments

Sad Sack makes out its everyone elses fault

Bloomberg.com: Brown Pledges to Take No Risks With U.K. Stability in 2008

``We will make the right decisions, not only this year but for the years ahead, to safeguard and strengthen our economy, and by keeping inflation low, keep interest rates for business and homeowners low,'' Brown said. This man cant help himself, yet more spin, he appears to have left out the fact that you cant have them both at the same time!!! HA HAHAHAHA YUK YUK GUFF GUFF HAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by mr cobblepot @ 11:25 AM 12 Comments

Expect a knock on effect for the housing market

Telegraph: High street chains may slip in 2008

Insolvency experts are on standby amid fears several high street retailers could collapse in January. Insolvencies are expected to pick up through January. "In many cases the banks have paid the rents to take these shops through the sales," said another executive. This after a frenzy of spending in the last few days in the run up to Christmas - what are things going to be like by April 2008?

Posted by jack c @ 11:16 AM 10 Comments

Please Sir can I have some more

Guardian: Merrill seeks more funds to avoid crisis

$4.4bn from Singapore's Temasek not enough - John Thain, the new chief executive of Merrill Lynch, is this weekend in talks with Chinese and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds that could lead to the sale of another big stake in the US bank in a desperate bid to raise capital, according to sources in London and New York.The discussions come just days after Thain was forced on Christmas Eve to sell $4.4bn (2.2bn) of stock to Singapore investment firm Temasek as part of a wider plan to raise some $7.5bn. So just how much money will eventually be enough

Posted by jack c @ 10:43 AM 0 Comments

Bleak article from the Guardian with Dickensian Overtones

Guardian: Bleak house market threatens hard times for UK consumers

Stuffed full of gloomy economic and housey-housey statistics and comes to the conclusion that 'it may be years before the happy-go-lucky days of the Brown boom are restored', though IMO Brown and Boom now seem quite distasteful when used together.

Posted by enuii @ 10:37 AM 3 Comments

Mortgage and property market in 2008

FruitMortgages: Mortgage Finance & Property Blog Wales UK

There is growing concern coming from experts on how the mortgage and property market in 2008 will turn out. Although not guaranteed house priced are likely to fall in early 2008 by at least 1-2% as first time buyers are unable to enter the market and second time movers are unable to sell their home. There was incredible housing inflation from early 2006 to mid 2007 of up to 100% in some areas such as the North of England and East Wales. Thankfully, for long term stability, these unsustainable increases have come to an end, this will hopefully lessen the extent to which the UK's slowing economy will be effected...

Posted by daniel morgan @ 10:15 AM 0 Comments

BOE - forget about house prices

The Times: Economists warn of UK stickyflation next year

Graeme Leach, the IoDs chief economist, said inflation would slow in 2008, but not as fast as output levels, making it harder for the Bank of England to cut interest rates. Inflation is already above the Banks 2% target and some economists say expectations of rising inflation are at their highest for eight years.

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 09:52 AM 2 Comments

Saturday, December 29, 2007

Easy money, what other problems did it cause?

The New York Times: Credit Crisis? Just Wait for a Replay

"It was the greatest credit party in history, made possible by a new financial architecture that moved much of the activities out of regulated institutions and into financial instruments that emphasized leverage over safety. The next year may be the one when we learn whether the subprime crisis was a relatively isolated problem in that system, or just the first indication of a systemic crisis." - this may or may not be the Titanic, but either way we are going into years of tight credit which will bring UK house prices back to reality.

Posted by happyrenterz @ 09:22 PM 1 Comments

"Quality" areas won't fall as fast as other areas.

Times Online: House market is steady in popular areas as prices fall around them

Bleak forecasts for the housing market were further underlined yesterday as data from a leading mortgage lender showed that house prices were continuing to fall throughout the country.

Posted by garyb @ 07:18 PM 1 Comments

US house sales crash 9%

Yahoo Finance: Sales of New Homes Worse Than Expected

"I think you can classify what we are seeing in the housing market as a crash," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "Sales and home prices are in a free fall. The downturn is intensifying."

Posted by happyrenterz @ 05:26 PM 13 Comments

Another alleged "pillar" is about to disappear?

Spiegel Online International: Border Controls Vanish in Eastern Europe

I was never convinced that immigrants were as important for BTL as suggested (many Britons have been leaving as well, this group could not afford to buy and most live many in one house) BUT it was nevertheless another factor. As most are economic migrants, many will go other parts of Europe now. I am sure many like London and English is an important country, HOWEVER, our economy is slowing to EU levels, Europe proper is closer AND the UK pound is weakening against e.g. the Polish zloty (this means it is better to work where payment is in a stronger currency (the Euro)). Another link giving details on the time line...http://www.wieninternational.at/en/node/2194 Many forces come together in April (capital gains tax triggers BTL sales?).

Posted by new user 2007 @ 05:25 PM 2 Comments

Now you have some! Elegant revenge by the Master Buffet...

FT.com: Bond insurers feel heat as Buffett enters sector

Shares in bond insurers MBIA and Ambac fell sharply on Friday amid concerns that a rival US bond insurer planned by billionaire Warren Buffett will eat into their ability to win new business and further damage efforts to boost their flagging capital bases. Mr Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway group was expected on Friday to receive a licence from the New York state insurance regulator for the new bond insurer. It hoped to start writing business on Friday or on Monday. It will then seek licences in other states.

Posted by lvmreader @ 02:25 PM 1 Comments

Straight-talking from the BBC

BBC: Moneybox: Life after crunch

A remarkably honest broadcast from the BBC. If you listen to the programme, there is a good section on house prices and the economy in general, with one "expert" willing to admit that he's not sure what will happen. An impressive breath of fresh air.

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 01:24 PM 11 Comments

like i say banks are NOT stupid

CNN: Citigroup, HSBC Hldgs may sell 'noncritical' assets

banks are raising money in other ways, by getting rid of assets, this surely must point to the end of asset value growth....

Posted by mark @ 09:46 AM 2 Comments

Worst reporting... ever!

Daily Express: House prices rising again

Home owners are breathing a sigh of relief after new figures revealed house prices are rising again in many areas. A predicted slump in the housing market has not arisen, despite the credit crunch. Latest research by the building society Nationwide yesterday revealed prices nationally were up 4.8 per cent year on year. Housing expert Peter Bolton King from the National Association of Estate Agents, said: Despite the considerable doom and gloom lately, the figures show that there is no need for pessimism.

Posted by little professor @ 08:55 AM 47 Comments

Advise for property owners in 2008

Telegraph: Property market: What's in store for 2008?

I'm Glad I'm not the Birmingham BTL Investor!

Posted by wdbeast @ 08:35 AM 11 Comments

Cash will be King

Times: Time to get real as the credit flow dries up

A rounded view of the year ahead

Posted by wdbeast @ 08:29 AM 2 Comments

Another 'Cassandra' also saw it coming!!

Motley Fool: We're All Living On Fantasy Island

Elliott and Atkinson made some Cassandra-Like dire predictions in April 2007. 'The decade from 1997 onwards when, following a massive electoral victory by New Labour, Britain looked forward to a brighter future. However, the Blair Years were also a decade of spin and paradoxes which have left the UK teetering on the brink of a serious downturn.'

Posted by renting2 @ 08:26 AM 3 Comments

VIs getting desperate now

Daily Express: House Prices Rising Again

They claim that because houseprices still show a rise on this time last year that everything is OK, and prices will continue to rise

Posted by jonb @ 12:13 AM 1 Comments

Friday, December 28, 2007

Headline in Major Commercial Property Mag

Property Week: Lipton fears 1990s style property crash

'One of the things I remember very, very clearly from the early days of the 1990 cycle was that no one ever believed it could happen,' he told the Financial Times.

Posted by andrew bird @ 08:07 PM 0 Comments

VI's optimistic to the end

IFAonline: 2008 INSIGHT: A tough year for property

The second half of 2007 was particularly tough for mortgage lenders and the property market in general as the US sub-prime crisis hit credit markets around the world. However, many players in the market are still optimistic about 2008, despite claims that the UK housing market could suffer a severe blow from the credit crunch.

Posted by jack c @ 06:42 PM 5 Comments

The Hidden Danger Lurking Behind Inflation

BBC: Documents show 1977 police unrest

I personally know of two Police Officers who have second jobs just to keep their heads above water and keep their mortgage payments up. Official records released today under the 30 year rule reveal just what can happen when politicians play with inflation - may this serve as a warning Mr Brown.

Posted by enuii @ 05:42 PM 13 Comments

Oil approaches US$100 again, but wait inflation will drop to 0.1% or some rubbish!

CBC - Canada: Oil, loonie climb higher

Oil prices crept higher on Friday amid U.S. supply concerns and world tensions following the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 05:23 PM 7 Comments

So what are CDOs again?

Wall Street Journal: The Making of a Mortgage CDO

This should be on as a permanent link on this site!

Posted by lvmreader @ 04:28 PM 1 Comments

Ooops, the US meltdown gathers pace!

Bloomberg: Sales of New Homes in U.S. Dropped 9% to 12-Year Low

Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell to a 12-year low in November, pointing to bigger declines in construction that will hobble economic growth throughout 2008. Purchases dropped 9 percent to an annual pace of 647,000 and October sales were revised down to a 711,000 rate, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Last month's sales were weaker than the lowest forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 03:55 PM 0 Comments

Mortgage Industry must face up to a 50% reduction in transaction volume

Firstrung: Mortgage approvals fall to record lows for second successive month

How long before these disastrous mortgage figures 'bleed' into the house transaction sales figures? Feb at the latest? This close on 50% reduction in mortgage approvals for house purchases indicates that the credit crunch has finally bitten..hard. Will we see a 50% reduction in: estate agents, mortgage brokers, lenders, money advice websites and worse still general commerce? Possibly so given our UK one track economy is tied so inextricably to the housing market.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:22 PM 15 Comments

Base rate reductions will not help this time as the market is all maxed out

Firstrung: UK house prices fall for second consecutive month - Nationwide

"Housing affordability is starting from a much worse position than in 2005, while interest rate cuts have started from a higher and more restrictive level. Therefore, this time around lower interest rates are more likely to stabilise market activity rather than re-ignite it." - Fionnuala Earley, Chief Economist Nationwide

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:15 PM 15 Comments

News handily burried on Xmas Eve

FT: House sales signal property market slowdown

Selling a house is taking longer than at any time in the last six years, adding to the growing evidence of a housing slowdown, according to a survey of estate agents to be published on Monday. House prices fell by 0.3 per cent in December from November the third consecutive monthly drop according to Hometrack, while the average time to sell was 8.3 weeks, the longest since the survey began in 2001. EDITORS CHOICE Forecast of stable house prices next year - Dec-20Novice buy-to-let investors squeezed as market cools - Dec-14Lex: UK housing - Dec-13UK housing market slows still further - Dec-13House price inflation falls - Dec-07Interactive house price map - Dec-07

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:42 AM 0 Comments

Happy New Year free thinking bloggers

BBC: House prices in 2008 - up or down?

"The long overdue housing market correction now appears to be underway" Lets just hope the 10 year Ponzi property trick won't leave us all jobless.

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:29 AM 4 Comments

Sums it all up really.....

Purdue University: ANALYSIS OF BUBBLES: from inception to aftermath of its burst

This is a very interesting read. I thought the following of particular interest:- ''The dangerous [type of bubble investor] comes...when the second type of speculator enter into the game. This type is related to what is known as the greater fool theory which states that an asset should be purchased as long as there exists at least one greater fool to whom that same asset can be sold at a higher price.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 10:12 AM 3 Comments

Bleak House and less jobs!

Business wales: Bleak prediction for 2008 from experts

The Nationwide indicated a further slowdown this morning and both the TUC and ICB gave gloomy predictions for 2008 as well. They indicated living standards would fall and there would be less jobs available.

Posted by doomberger @ 08:35 AM 0 Comments

Sooooo, this is a soft landing then?

Telegraph Co Uk: Credit crunch set to push up bankruptcies

A short piece which highlights the plight of the sheeple. Looks like a number of properties will be coming onto the market then. I wonder how the banks/building societies will manage the flood. I assume they will seek to minimize the impact of a large number of homes coming onto the market to protect house values. How?

Posted by talking rot @ 07:55 AM 6 Comments

Seems a little conservative to me...

Nationwide: House prices fall by 0.5% in December

Main points:- ''House prices fell by 0.5% in December, the second consecutive monthly decline'' ''The average price of a UK property is 8,334 higher than a year ago''.....and here is the really interesting bit ''Rate cuts will help but are unlikely to re-ignite the housing market as in 2005''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:32 AM 7 Comments

Well, what else did you expect?

Times Online: Huge rate rise looming for sub-prime credit card users

''Fresh evidence of a squeeze on consumer credit emerged yesterday as one of Britains top sub-prime credit card issuers pushed through a huge rise in its lending rates....Marbles, the private equity-owned card provider aimed at borrowers with patchy credit histories, is preparing to hit some of its 338,000 account holders with annual interest charges of as much as 33.9 per cent for cash advances. Marbles will also charge an annual 26.9 per cent rate of interest for purchases.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 06:58 AM 4 Comments

Boom to Bust - 2008 predicted to be the worst year for jobs for decade

FT: UK jobs outlook worst for a decade

The outlook for the UK jobs market is the worst for a decade with unemployment and redundancies expected to rise in the wake of the international credit crisis. The jobs slowdown could prompt bigger cuts in interest rates than currently anticipated to head off the threat of recession. HR professionals will have to deal with the tricky task of compulsory redundancies.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:05 AM 6 Comments

Demand increase, supply falls and the U.S increases it's strategic stock

Market Oracle: Crude Oil Forecast 2008 to Hit $150 a Barrel

With demand high, supply falling and the U.S. increasing it's stock the price of oil is only expected to rise. Why is the U.S stockpiling oil when it is so expensive asks the author?

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 05:05 AM 2 Comments

Invesment Bank 12 month outlook

Skandia: Skandia Indicator

I've been using this for years and I thought some people on here might be interested. 12 Month Predictions: 10 investment banks > 5% drop 7 investment banks - no movment up or down greater than 5 % HSBC (haha) - much greater than 5% rise in house prices.

Posted by craig @ 04:32 AM 0 Comments

Thursday, December 27, 2007

We said buy precious metals didn't we?

Reuters: Gold jumps after Bhutto death, platinum hits record

"Gold jumped on Thursday, hitting a one-month high as geopolitical tensions mounted, prompting a flight to safe-haven assets". Spot platinum set a historic peak, tracking gold with further support from positive fundamentals.

Posted by alan @ 10:46 PM 1 Comments

Big sales stampede starts before dawn

This is Silly: Big sales stampede starts before dawn

....bunch of idiots buying last years fashions they dont really need with money they probably cant afford to spend.

Posted by eagle @ 10:43 PM 1 Comments

Great Depression Time

Washington Times: Blame abounds for housing bust

This year's housing bust is shaping up to be one of historic proportions. Sales and construction have sunk to levels not seen since the 1990 savings and loan crisis, while foreclosures and price drops are the largest since the Great Depression and expected to get worse next year. Many parallels can be seen with earlier housing debacles. Each episode had some combination of easy money, loose lending, greed and fraud that turned a housing boom into a speculative bubble. But few housing bubbles have ended so badly as the one today, when the nation is confronting the prospect of mass foreclosures and family dislocations.

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:30 PM 6 Comments

Trying to refinance 7.1bn in this climate

Wall Street Journal: Credit Downturn Hits the Malls

The credit crunch triggered by the downturn in the housing market is creating problems in commercial real estate, driving down prices of office buildings, shopping malls and apartment complexes, and leaving some owners scrambling for cash.
One victim is Centro Properties Group, the fifth-largest owner of shopping centers in the U.S. The Australian real-estate company saw its share price fall by 90% in two days last week as it struggled to refinance short-term debt it took on to fund its $6.2 billion acquisition of New Plan Excel, one of the biggest owners of strip malls in the U.S.

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:21 PM 2 Comments

Scotland sees biggest house price hike in UK

The Herald: Scotland sees biggest house price hike in UK

Scotland and south east England saw the biggest hike in house prices last year, according to a survey published today. Thirteen of the top 20 towns which experienced the largest increases across the UK were from the two areas.

Posted by neil @ 09:18 PM 0 Comments

Printing too mch money too quickly can lead to hyperinflation

Daily KOS: Credit Crunch vs. Central Banks - You Lose

The credit crunch that started in August is threatening to bring the economies of the entire 1st world to a grinding halt. To combat that the central banks of America and Europe are pumping cheap money into the markets at an unprecedented rate. These actions are not without consequences.

Posted by lvmreader @ 08:42 PM 2 Comments

And the Dow went up? Hello? Wake up fools!

The Age: Americans 'walk' from loans

Nearly 180,000 US local councils were placed on credit watch, with the credit agency Fitch releasing another $US5.3 billion in credit downgrades involving 27 mortgage companies. The news emerged on Friday night, when the nation's newspapers, even if they were following the story, would miss it. That one company could downgrade 27 major financial institutions in one stroke is stunning, but it follows a swathe of credit downgrades that swept the US on Thursday and Friday. There has been a major falling out between mortgage insurers, credit rating companies, banks and mortgage institutions, which believed their loans were insured, only to be stunned to find themselves booted into the mire that is American banking.

Posted by lvmreader @ 08:41 PM 2 Comments

Don't worry (ctd)

Reuters: Pound hits all-time low vs euro

"Sterling, which has the highest interest rates in the Group of Seven industrialised nations, benefits from the carry trade where investors borrow low yielding currencies such as the yen to fund purchases of higher yielding assets in other currencies.However, investors flee from the relatively risky carry trade when jitters set in". (Jitters, what jitters?)

Posted by alan @ 04:27 PM 1 Comments

Don't worry

Times: Outlook bleak but not critical

Mortgage approvals are considered an early indicator of what is likely to happen to property prices in the months ahead, so the 44% slump in approvals in November is worrying. But the signs point to a gentle correction rather than major crash. House prices are notoriously sticky on the way down because vendors are reluctant to accept less than they perceive their homes to be worth. As long as the economy holds up and unemployment doesnt rise significantly there is unlikely to be enough forced sellers to trigger a full-scale slump. The number of home repossessions is set to rise 50% next year, but this is still low historically. In most areas there is also a shortage of housing supply.

Posted by little professor @ 02:20 PM 20 Comments

Oh dear . . . . . .

BBC News: Bank mortgage approvals stay weak

Mortgage approvals at the biggest UK banks have steadied, but lending levels for November are still more than 40% below the same month last year.

Posted by nmarks @ 02:08 PM 0 Comments

Please sir, can I have some more rate cuts?

Times: More rate pressure as new mortgage figures plunge

"The Bank of England came under mounting pressure to cut interest rates as early as next month today as official figures from Britain's high street banks showed that new mortgage lending dropped by 43.5 per cent last month compared with last November." -- OH REALLY? I don't remember the bank coming under pressure to raise rates while the market was booming, why step in now?

Posted by drewster @ 01:15 PM 14 Comments

40% now, 100% next year.

Telegraph: Citigroup could slash dividend by 40pc

When will all the truth come out, its scary knowing were approx a year behind the USA. Will the UK banks go through this as BoE's Merving King warns a painfull correction. Its not looking good.

Posted by lea @ 12:56 PM 0 Comments

Collapse in mortgage approvals does not bode well!

Telegraph: Mortgage approvals tumble 44pc

With mortgage approvals tumbling 44% and equity withdrawals falling as well it does not bode well for the UK housing market. The cdedit crunch is deepening every day. "Mr Archer revealed that he now expects house prices to fall 3pc next year, having previously predicted that prices would flatline at 0pc growth. He added: "This ongoing evidence that the housing market is currently slowing markedly maintains pressure for another interest rate cut early in 2008."

Posted by doomberger @ 12:31 PM 2 Comments

Mortgage Number Down 40%

FT: November mortgage approvals down 40%

"The housing market remained in the doldrums in November, with mortgage approvals more than 40 per cent below their level the previous year, according to the trading body which represents Britains largest banks."

Posted by craig @ 12:03 PM 0 Comments

Time for Rehab

times online: Villains aplenty but few heroes in sad tale of debt tragedy

Credit crunch what credit crunch? The headlines may blaze with warnings of economic meltdown, but the car park at the shopping centre was nearly full by 7am. We are like addicts, embarking on a shopping spree to sate our desires, despite knowing that the comedown is going to hurt. It seems, this year, as if fear of that comedown is perversely fuelling even more excess than usual.

Posted by sold out @ 11:22 AM 4 Comments

Central Banks risk loosing control

Telegraph: Crisis may make 1929 look a 'walk in the park'

Buckets of liquidity are being poured into the North Atlantic banking system with meagre or fleeting effects with many top economists warning that the world's central banks are risking a policy error of epochal proportions. B of E Markets director Paul Tucker states that 'the crisis has moved beyond the collapse of mortgage securities, and is now eating into the bedrock of banking capital'.

Posted by enuii @ 11:07 AM 2 Comments

More New Year Spin from NeuLiebor

BBC News: 500m revamp plan for Longbridge

Two days ago they were splashing out 20M (peanuts) on redeveloping the west of scotland, now its 500M (walnuts) on the former Longbridge site. The thing that strikes me is that it includes 1400 homes, a shopping centre and a paltry 20M 'innovation centre'. Another industrial site bites the dust, god knows how they think they are going to stuff 10,000 jobs the site when most of it will be housing?

More soft-soaping for the masses I'm afraid.

Posted by enuii @ 10:15 AM 6 Comments

Things going seriously pear shaped across the pond

Telegraph: House prices in US fall at record rate

But apparently due to an influx of Polish strawberry pickers combined with sound fundamentals, homes here according to some sources will go up by 1% in 2008.

Posted by sovietuk @ 10:01 AM 2 Comments

Wow is this in just 1 month?

The Times: Worst decline in American house prices may not be finished yet

American house prices declined at their fastest rate for more than six years in October, with homes in Miami losing 12 per cent of their value, it emerged yesterday. According to the Standard & Poors/Case Shiller index of house prices in the US, the value of existing, single-family homes fell 6.7 per cent in October compared with the same period the year before. The figures indicate that Americas housing recession already the worst for 16 years is far from over. Professor Robert Shiller, co-founder of the index and an economics academic at Yale University, said: No matter how you look at these data, it is obvious that the state of the single-family housing market remains grim. The 6.7 per cent fall surpasses a 6.3 per cent drop in April 1991

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 09:44 AM 0 Comments

oooh, this has been quietly sneeked out while everyone's pissed on Egg Nog!

BBC: US asset rescue scheme abandoned

A plan by US banks to help calm down rattled credit markets has been dropped weeks before it was due to launch. Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase said they had shelved the $75bn (37bn) fund designed to buy debt of weakening value to avoid panic selling.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:01 AM 5 Comments

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Lets offshore everything!

BBC News: Bye Bye Brands...

Interesting article from the BBC showing the decline in the past 50 years of home grown British products "made in england" moving overseas. HP sauce is the main focus of the article, which also touches on Wedgewood, Aston martin and Cadburys. What is going to happen when there is nothing left to export (manufacture) and the companies all have their HQ in other countries?

Posted by mikedx @ 09:49 PM 10 Comments

UK 2008 to follow USA 2007 cities in crisis

S&P: Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities were down 6.1% released Wednesday by Standard & Poor's.

"Given conditions relating to mortgage financing, and the number of unsold homes that is piling up, all regions are likely to continue on a negative trend in the months ahead"

Posted by yoyo1 @ 04:20 PM 7 Comments

Job security fear falls dramatically

Firstrung: House prices could fall in 2008 due to increasingly gloomy consumer confidence - Lloyds TSB

The slump in confidence over job security, coupled with the pressure of rising prices does not bode well for the New Year. This combination could dampen consumer spending and have a knock-on negative impact on the housing market. However, the fact that official labour market data remains strong offers some hope that job fears may be short-lived. Although our survey suggests that Decembers interest rate cut has so far had little impact on sentiment, a further two cuts early next year which we expect may offer a welcome boost to confidence.

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:37 PM 1 Comments

Wanted: Roof at Christmas

Sky: Tory MP's Wet Night Sleeping Rough

"A Tory MP has spent a wet night sleeping rough on the streets of London to highlight the issue of homelessness". In a separate interview he told BBC "People think the housing ladder begins with getting your first mortgage, but it begins with people sleeping on the streets".

Posted by alan @ 10:09 AM 5 Comments

Predictions for 2008

This is Money: Will your home sell?

Pundits are predicting that 2008 will be the year when the party ends for rapidly rising house prices. Most experts are suggesting a gloomy year ahead for the property market after a decade of huge growth that has seen the cost of the average home rise from 70,000 to 195,000 See below for the predictions for 2008

Posted by little professor @ 09:07 AM 7 Comments

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Will it though? And at what cost to the retailer?

BRC: CASH STRAPPED CUSTOMERS MEAN BUMPER JANUARY SALES

"With a challenging first half of the year virtually guaranteed for all consumer-facing businesses, retailers will be discounting well into 2008. On its own, December's interest rate cut won't overcome the developing slowdown. I hope the Bank of England have more pencilled in for January and March or April."

Posted by stevie dee @ 09:51 PM 0 Comments

Americans fall behind with cedit card payments.

MSNBC: News Article

SAN FRANCISCO - Americans are falling behind on their credit card payments at an alarming rate, sending delinquencies and defaults surging by double-digit percentages in the last year and prompting warnings of worse to come. No-one can get credit, and what credit they have they can't repay, despite rate cuts.

Posted by renting2 @ 03:07 PM 2 Comments

Monday, December 24, 2007

If there are any BTLers in your family, best not talk about it at the table tomorrow.

My Finances: Bad advice bites at the Christmas table

Most bad advice (49%) seems to cover savings and investments, while 19 per cent concerns mortgages, so if there is a BTLer across the table from you tomorrow just smile and say nowt.

Posted by enuii @ 06:12 PM 0 Comments

Hey - Wassup?

Reuters: GLOBAL ECONOMY WKAHEAD-Consumer spending foundation cracking

"From Madrid to Malibu, the housing meltdown is cracking the foundation of consumer spending, and barring a last-minute shopping spree this week, the holiday season looks likely to be the latest casualty". "The wild card may be politics as the United States heads into the 2008 presidential election. President George W. Bush hinted last week that something may be in the works, saying he would consider "all options" to help the economy". (Not another war - surely?)

Posted by alan @ 02:32 PM 4 Comments

Pound goes lower

BBC News: Pound at record low against euro

The pound has fallen to a record low against the euro, as dealers expect more Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cuts in 2008. The pound bought just one euro 37.6 cents in quiet Christmas Eve trading.

Posted by Webmaster @ 12:51 PM 11 Comments

This is the 5th annual Halifax First Time Buyer Review

Firstrung: Number of first time buyers at its lowest since 1980

Not new news, it`s been disected ad nauseum during the past few days. However, I thought it was worth posting the unedefying un-abridged version direct from HBOS. Its gonna be a helluva 'meeja inspired fight' for hearts and minds as we watch prices fall back to 2004 levels as a minimum correction. Let`s hope, once all the S.H.I.T. has hit the fan, the meek inherit the earth..or at least a 2 bed terrace for a price somewhere near 3.5 joint income eh? MERRY XMAS FROM THE FIRSTRUNG TEAM =:)

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:39 PM 0 Comments

Can normal market cycles be 'controlled'?

Firstrung: Investors ignore market cycles at their peril

John Wood, senior fund manager of the J O Hambro Capital Management (JOHCM) UK Opportunities fund. "What we are currently experiencing is a normal market cycle, and we will see the usual phases of "Regret" and "Recovery" following a "Recession" . The time to buy equities will be during the "Regret" phase."

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:28 PM 2 Comments

House prices unsustainable!

aboutproperty.co.uk: Homes 'unaffordable' in 96% of UK

With news out today of another drop in house prices and further news over 96% of UK houses unaffordable it looks like we could be in for a very sharp decline in house prices.

Posted by doomberger @ 11:41 AM 1 Comments

Some Home Truths

Telegraph: Houses taking longer to sell as slowdown bites

"...mortgage lenders have not extended as many loans ..."
"Hometrack has warned that home owners will need to start cutting their asking prices significantly if they want to sell their houses."
"A big proportion of people who move house do not need to - they are only doing so because they can afford to," said Mr Donnell.
"At the current pricing levels, they might as well just sit on their hands and wait for the prices to come down."
And if the whole chain renegotiates downwards, then the ONLY LOSERS are the baby boomers at the top and all the financial industry vested interests.
Most of us WIN.

Posted by voiceofreason @ 10:59 AM 2 Comments

Early Xmas present from Hometrack

Bloomberg: House prices fall the most in three years

Hometrack reports UK house prices fell for a third straight month, dropping 0.3% in December. The annual rate of HPI has now fallen to 3%. "The second half of the year has seen a major reversal in confidence,'' said Richard Donnell of Hometrack.

Posted by little professor @ 10:46 AM 0 Comments

30% fall in prices!!!!

guardian: Homes harder to sell even after three months of falling prices

House prices fell for the third month in a row in December, according to the monthly Hometrack survey. The time it takes to sell a house has increased to more than eight weeks, the longest period since the report began in December 2001. Average house prices fell by 0.3% this month, with some estate agents reporting falls of as much as 30%. Stronger prices in the first half of the year led to a 3% average price increase across 2007 as a whole.

Posted by worried @ 09:08 AM 2 Comments

Pound keeps diving

Bloomberg: Pound Falls to Record Low Against Euro

The pound fell to its lowest ever against the euro as a report showing a decline in house prices stoked speculation the Bank of England will keep cutting interest rates to shore up the economy. The average cost of a home in England and Wales slipped for a third month, dropping 0.3 percent to 175,200 pounds ($348,350), Hometrack said today.

Posted by alan @ 08:45 AM 1 Comments

People's fear of outsourcing and redundancy keep wage inflation low (excecpt for MP's)

Guardian: High anxiety keeps wage rises lower

Wage inflation is low as people are fearfull of demanding large pay rises as they may be made redundant and their job offshored. This only applies to those at the lower end of the salary scale. At the higher end (e.g. MP's) their is no such fear - shame can we really not offshore our MP's job's?

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:39 AM 12 Comments

ECB focus on inflation not credit crunch

FT: Trichet to focus on eurozone inflation

The ECB plan to hold EU interest rates at 4% to deter inflation and second round effects such as wage inflation. Also at their meeting on 6 Dec some members wanted to raise interest rates. Sounds like our Spanish holidays will get more expensive as sterling falls.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:28 AM 2 Comments

Inflation feeds in to pay rises!!

Telegraph: Brown: MPs selfish for demanding pay rise

Go on boys fill your boots!!!! MP's demand inflation busting 10% pay rise!!! I assume as Gordon is keen on investment we will see an improvement in productivity from the MP's; or are we better off letting them sleep?? Oh I can hear their defence now - we work late etc etc however, I don't think they will mention that they start late and they have a three month summer holiday and a long Christmas holiday. And this is on top of their index linked gold plated pension. Oh and I almost forgot they also get 100,000quid in expenses per year!!! What do we get in return???

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:14 AM 4 Comments

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Getting colder...

Times Online: House builders dig in for deep freeze in residential property

The slide in house prices is gathering pace, a survey suggests today, amid signs that housebuilders are digging in for a prolonged residential property freeze. Tulloch Homes, a medium-sized Scottish housebuilder, pulled plans yesterday for a 200 million flotation, and Taylor Wimpey is understood to have ordered a halt to any new land acquisitions.

Posted by bloke111 @ 10:33 PM 1 Comments

HPC gathering pace?

Citywire: Sell your house and fast to get out at the top, experts say

This very moment might be the best time for homeowners to sell their property and buy another if they wish to take advantage of the market climate.Kelvin Davidson, a property economist with Capital Economics, said: The downward movement is already started, as the Halifax has fallen three months in a row and we had a fall on the Nationwide. So if you are going to do it, theres probably no better time then the present and we expect falls to keep going so the peak might already have passed.

Posted by jack c @ 08:09 PM 9 Comments

Sales up on heavy discounting

Bloomberg.com: U.K. Christmas Retail Sales to Beat 2006 on Discounts, BRC Say

U.K. Christmas-season retail sales will ``certainly'' be higher than last year's, driven by discounting that has brought out shoppers in the final 10 days, the British Retail Consortium said.

Posted by ash4781 @ 07:03 PM 0 Comments

Now that IS bearish

Telegraph: Crisis may make 1929 look a 'walk in the park'

As central banks continue to splash their cash over the system, so far to little effect, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues things are rapidly spiralling out of their control

Posted by holding out @ 04:37 PM 3 Comments

Reality Hits the Reality TV Watchers Favourite Paper

Sunday People: FIRST-TIME BUYER CRISIS

Experts at the Halifax warn that 96 per cent of First Time Buyers wanting to buy cannot honestly manage the mortgage payments and RICS follow up at the rear of the article by stating that they will soon be OK because house prices are falling and repossessed homes will be coming on to the market soon and NewLiebor are going to build 3 million new flats (sorry homes) by 2020.

Well thats alright then innit!

Posted by enuii @ 03:13 PM 4 Comments

Will oil prices or house prices be the major economic news of 2008?

The Oil Drum: Oil prices or subprime losses?

An interesting Post which looks in depth into a question posed by a recent article, will high oil prices or sub-prime be the biggest economic driver next year? In asking the question it brings together many of the best house price graphs and compares it against the issue of $100 oil. It is from an American perspective, but interesting nonetheless.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 10:41 AM 1 Comments

David Smith reassures us all

The Times: Cheer up, things aren't that bad

How much more gloom can you take? HBad news sells, so perhaps I should be laying it on with a trowel. We have the credit crisis, the budget deficit is overshooting and the pound has fallen. But there is reason to be optimistic. If you believe that a big, 10% fall in house prices (which I dont expect) would take us back to the negative equity of the early 1990s, and leave banks with dodgy mortgage books, then fine, but it is not true. Loan-to-value ratios have been kept under control, so mortgage books are insulated from quite a big fall in prices.

Posted by little professor @ 10:24 AM 12 Comments

Very bearish article

S Times: Beat buy-to-let payments shock

'THIS was the year that buy-to-let started to crumble', '...at the Countrywide estate agency We are noticing a growing number of landlords are opting to sell their property rather than relet. ', 'The situation could get worse next year when about 250,000 buy-to-let loans will be up for renewal. '

Posted by financial planner @ 09:25 AM 12 Comments

A Christmas Song For Credit Junkies

Broader perspective on bubble burst

Observer: Which way now when the world has shifted?

If you landed in London from another planet this month and picked up the Financial Times's glossy How to Spend It magazine, you would not suspect for a nanosecond that there was a crisis on the world money markets. In 120 pages of unabashed haute consumerism, ads for Tiffany ran alongside features on record couture sales at Christian Dior, with scarcely a hint at harsh realities such as multibillion-pound bank write-offs, smaller bonuses and lost City jobs.

Posted by petefromoz @ 02:03 AM 1 Comments

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Stuart Law, chief executive, Assetz predicts period of stabilisation.

Telegraph: ASSETZ: HOUSING CRASH? DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

"The danger is that people are now beginning to believe such spurious claims, offering a further knock to consumer and investor confidence. While there is no denying that the rate of house price growth will continue to slow in 2008, this is the result of a widely anticipated period of stabilisation, and is not the beginning of a housing market crash, as is being touted within the industry" Who do you think you are kidding Mr Law?

Posted by mike livingstone @ 05:02 PM 14 Comments

Markets forcast unprecedented falls in house prices

Times: Big-ticket punters see fall ahead for housebuilders

Article about the predictions for housebuilders next year. Interesting first three paragraphs.

Posted by wally @ 04:47 PM 2 Comments

An old-style article, no mention of credit crunch or falling prices

Telegraph: Desperate first-time buyers still have options

"Getting a foot on the property ladder can seem impossible - low-paid jobs and sky-high house prices have pushed up the average age of a first-time buyer to 33. But buying your first home in your twenties may still be possible." -- Yes, and being repossessed in your twenties may also still be possible!

Posted by drewster @ 03:51 PM 17 Comments

Rosie Millard, what a b|tch and a b@stard

Herald: If greed is good who foots the bill?

"Two years ago Rosie Millard, the former BBC arts correspondent turned buy-to-let investor went broke, admitting she survived by shifting her debts from one credit card to another. Once, rather than admit to such shame, the middle-class debtor would have gone into the library and done the decent thing. Middle-class values were once grounded in prudence, in a distaste of debt, in saving for the things one wanted."

Posted by confused76 @ 11:46 AM 6 Comments

And now let us cheer up with festive news!!! BTL is dead!

Scotsman: Buy-to-let in crisis if not in freefall

"One of the biggest pressures on surveyors currently is on rental value. We get hundreds of calls a week from buy-to-let investors who want to push rental figures as high as they will go. But surveyors have a responsibility and a duty to the lender to give realistic advice." P.doff, where are you? can you please comment to the role of surveyor in this BTL craze. Similar to the role of equity analysts in the dot-com bubble. "the perfect storm would be if legislation were to affect the offset of interest payments on a loan against tax. More than a quarter BTLs would offload significant parts of their portfolios." Well, well, well... Alistair Darling sure will need some cash going forward... less City taxes, less oil taxes...AHAHHAHHAHA

Posted by confused76 @ 11:41 AM 2 Comments

These things should have been obvious for years

FT: Benign indifference by regulators as buy-to-let sector grew

"Sir, We are only slowly beginning to recognise the many ramifications of the US-led credit crunch, but the demise in UK buy-to-let financing does not only affect borrowers (Buy-to-let financing evaporates, December 15/16); the four biggest casualties will be the governments housing plans, housebuilders profitability, investors who should have been protected by the Financial Services Authority and lenders secured against overpriced flat investments" Charles Fairhurst, Chief Executive, Fairbridge Residential Investment Management, London W1U 2RE

Posted by confused76 @ 11:34 AM 2 Comments

America's Repo Bus Tour

ABC News: Climb Aboard The Bus!

With home foreclosures on the rise, one man is making the best out of a bad situation. Cesar Dias, who has been in real estate 18 years, is making sure that the foreclosed houses in his hometown of Stockton, Calif. are getting sold, in a quite unusual way. Dias leads the weekly "Repo Home Tour," where he fills two large, brightly colored buses with prospective buyers looking for houses with big price reductions. There is almost an art to the way he makes the home-buying experience fun. He tempts prospective homebuyers with sweets and good cheer as if the whole thing's a party, then loads the whole crowd onto a couple of buses as if they're all going on break.

Posted by timelash @ 10:43 AM 0 Comments

Rightmove: "On borrowed time"

BBC Breakfast News: First-time buyers 'at fresh low'

I was watching Breakfast News this morning and heard the interview with Rightmoves spokesman. A carefully worded piece in response to the first time buyer issue, but I couldn't believe the freudian slip: "in a sense we're living on borrowed time" with reference to the fact that BTL and parents helping FTBs have extended the demand for property.

Posted by growler @ 08:16 AM 31 Comments

School Report 2007

HPC: Gordon Brown

After weeks of depressing new about house prices crashing and banks going bust it is time to have some fun. I have started a wiki page on Gordon Brown 2007 school report. Feel free to amend as it will only get better.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 07:43 AM 13 Comments

First-time buyers are scarcer than at any time for 30 years

The Times: First-time buyers are scarcer than at any time for 30 years

The number of first-time buyers has fallen to its lowest since 1980 as rising house prices have forced prospective homeowners to rent properties or live with their parents. About 300,000 people bought their first home this year, down from 532,000 in 2002

Posted by eagle @ 12:36 AM 0 Comments

It just feels like the worst time to buy

The Times: It just feels like the worst time to buy

It just feels like the worst time to buy

Posted by eagle @ 12:34 AM 0 Comments

Friday, December 21, 2007

BIFF-BAFF! the first punches start landing in the legal fallout from Sub-Prime. The big winners in all of this will be the arch parasites - Lawyers.

Telegraph: Barclays set to do battle with Bear Stearns

In law, as in life, timing is everything. And so there was little coincidence that Barclays chose the afternoon before Bear Stearn's fourth-quarter annual results to file its $400m-plus lawsuit alleging all manner of woes. As Bear's executive committee put the finishing touches to its damaging fourth-quarter results statement, so Linklater's Lawrence Byrne was filing the 75-page suit at New York's downtown federal courthouse.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:00 PM 5 Comments

Confirmation, not information this time

Reuters: Pound hits all-time low against euro

The pound hit an all-time low versus the euro on Friday as expectations of an interest rate cut on the back of a slowing economy led investors to sell the currency. The pound held near its lowest in more than a year and a half on a trade-weighted basis as news on Wednesday that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee was unanimous on this month's rate cut firmed investor conviction that more monetary easing is imminent. A raft of negative data in December has also led to increased speculation that the Bank will cut rates aggressively in 2008.

Posted by alan @ 07:29 PM 5 Comments

Scams to defraud mortgage companies

The Wall Street Journal: Fraud Seen as a Driver In Wave of Foreclosures

Mortgage companies made themselves vulnerable to fraud by bringing in "stated-income loan" also known as "liar lones". Even big names like Bear Sterns got defrauded this way. "Mr. Wright was a phone technician earning only $105,000 a year, with assets of only $35,000, and his wife was a homemaker. The palm-tree-lined mansion they purchased with Bear Stearns's $1.8 million (after claiming he earned $50,000 a month) recently sold out of foreclosure for just $1.1 million."

Posted by happyrenterz @ 07:08 PM 2 Comments

Don't all rush out there at once

Firstrung: First time buyers reach lowest levels since 1980

The 5th annual Halifax First Time Buyer Review, which tracks housing affordability in 483 post towns, reveals that an estimated 300,000 first-time-buyers entered the market in 2007 compared to 532,000 in 2002. Terraced homes were the least expensive property type for first time buyers but in 71 per cent of towns across the UK, first-time-buyers are unable to afford terraced houses, compared to only 11 per cent of towns where terraced homes were too expensive in 2002.

Posted by converted lurker @ 03:49 PM 13 Comments

at some point the 'spin' stops

Firstrung: Consumer confidence at lowest ebb since 1995

As 2007 draws to a close, we see that Consumers are suffering from a dose of realism. All five measures dropped this month; the major purchases measure saw the biggest drop this month of seven points. Traditionally at this time of year you would see a drop whilst Consumers wait for the January sales, but this combined with reports of a "credit crunch" has resulted in this measure dropping to its lowest level since June 1991

Posted by converted lurker @ 03:48 PM 2 Comments

..Meanwhile, back in the courtroom...

Bloomberg: Lehman Faces Lawsuit by Australian Municipal Councils

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the largest U.S. underwriter of mortgage-backed bonds, faces legal action by Australian municipal governments after the value of their subprime-related investments dropped as much as 86 percent. Wingecarribee Shire Council, in New South Wales state, is suing Lehman for ``deceptive and misleading conduct'' in selling A$3 million ($2.6 million) of subprime-linked collateralized debt obligations, the council's managing director Mike Hyde said in a media statement today.

Posted by alan @ 03:05 PM 0 Comments

The French Connection

RTT News: Credit Agricole Takes Further 1.6 Bln Euros Writedown

French bank Credit Agricole announced that it would take an additional write down to the magnitude of 1.6 billion euros. The company joins the list of financial firms that has come public about their bruises from their exposure to the tarnished subprime mortgage market.

Posted by alan @ 02:57 PM 1 Comments

Shares fall next... the flight to cash continues

Telegraph: Private investors cash in shares in record numbers

"November saw net outflows from funds for the first time since records began in July 1992. More than 600m was withdrawn from equity funds, while investors continued to run from commercial property funds, with 253m withdrawn. There had been growing evidence that investors were cashing in commercial property funds, but it is the first time that nerves among equity investors have begun to show." -- Time to sell up?

Posted by drewster @ 02:33 PM 9 Comments

The Times mentions the R word

Times: Despite signs of foreboding, recession is not a certainty

"Past episodes of recession could be traced to a combination of a few, key triggers: tighter economic policy through elevated interest rates, higher taxes or lower government spending; blows to Britain from economic problems abroad; collapses in consumer and business confidence; and a severe worsening in the financial position of either companies or households, or both." hmmmm... sounds like today. "Confidence has faltered in the present housing market, but housebuilders believe that the market is set for a slowdown, similar to the winter of 2004-05, rather than an outright crash. Prices have levelled off and sales volumes have fallen by up to 20 per cent since October." Yeah yeah yeah

Posted by confused76 @ 02:04 PM 0 Comments

Sterling under pressure

The Telegraph: Debt fears push sterling to 20 month low

The pound has slumped to its lowest level in 20 months, after a "shocking" raft of figures revealed how deeply reliant the UK has become on debt. Britain's current account has recorded its worst deficit since the late 1980s, making Britain's national balance sheet worse than the United States' for the first time since Nigel Lawson was Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Posted by holding out @ 02:01 PM 8 Comments

Greenspan was warned on subprime but did nothing

FT: Fed Shrugged as Subprime Crisis Spread

"Edward M. Gramlich, a Federal Reserve governor who died in September, warned nearly seven years ago that a fast-growing new breed of lenders was luring many people into risky mortgages they could not afford. But when Mr. Gramlich privately urged Fed examiners to investigate mortgage lenders affiliated with national banks, he was rebuffed by Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman."

Posted by happyrenterz @ 01:29 PM 0 Comments

European Banks hold the most toxic waste

FT: [Greed & Fear] Financial constipation: The big dump is coming

Lots of good stuff here: "The gob-smacking provision of U$500bn of liquidity by the ECB this week is proof, if it were still needed, that a large part of the festering structured excreta lies in Europe, says CLSAs Christopher Wood, in his weekly client newsletter Greed & Fear." "On the subject of Greenspan, Wood comes back to a pet topic. It is incredible, he says, that the world still takes Pinball seriously:"

Posted by happyrenterz @ 01:08 PM 0 Comments

Recession is just around the corner

MoneyWeek: 'Tis the season of self-delusion

There may be no recession until after Christmas, but as sure as youll still be half a stone overweight after your January detox, one will follow pretty soon after...

Posted by mary @ 11:37 AM 3 Comments

MBIA admits to shocking level of exposure

BBC: Credit Crisis Grips Bond Insurer

MBIA admits to large and under capitalised sub prime exposure. Threat of rating downgrade with consequent knock-on effect onto the bonds it insures.

Posted by hotairmail @ 09:36 AM 0 Comments

Panic as investors locked inside!

Thisismoney.co.uk: Panicking investors locked in by Friends

I wouldn't like to be invested in commercial property at the moment whether it be shares, funds or owning them. We could have meltdown big time soon.

Posted by doomberger @ 09:05 AM 0 Comments

"Nightmare for investors is commecial property funds.

Guardian: The nightmare: locked inside as the walls cave in

Could this be a run on the property funds? Well it looks like it could be. Commercial property looks like we are heading for meltdown.

Posted by doomberger @ 08:46 AM 17 Comments

Propert y fund freezes withdrawals.

BBC: Downturn hits Friends investors

More gloom in the property sector as withdrawals are frozen. Otherwise the fund would be forced to sell properties which would make the situation far worse. Its a very bad omen though.

Posted by doomberger @ 08:17 AM 1 Comments

Cut the bull, bare the truth

Times Online: Grim data undermines Brown's economy claims

" As a proportion of GDP, this left Britain's balance of payments as deep in the red as that of the United States. The percentage deficit matched records set in the 1980s boom." Following a spate of reality, it's becoming even more obvious that we're being fed positive news.

Posted by growler @ 07:19 AM 0 Comments

Goldman going to Japan - Lucky them!

Reuters: UPDATE 2-Goldman, M.Stanley bid for Daito stake-sources

Goldman Sachs and investment firm Aetos Capital LLC are also interested in acquiring Daito, the sources said, and the value of the deal could ultimately exceed $10 billion. Land prices in Japan started to pick up last year for the first time in 16 years against a backdrop of an economic recovery. With interest rates in Japan near rock bottom, the low cost of funding has made Japanese assets attractive.

Posted by stevie dee @ 03:40 AM 0 Comments

Where is JP Morgan's announcement?

Reuters: CIBC Warns of 'Large Charge' as Subprime Woes Grow

There is a "reasonably high probability" that Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce will report a "large charge" in its first-quarter results, the bank warned on Wednesday, as pain from its exposure to the U.S. subprime mortgage market deepens. CIBC, Canada's fifth-biggest bank, did not give a firm figure for the charge but said the subprime hedge protection it bought from troubled bond insurer ACA Financial Guaranty Corp was valued at $2 billion as of Nov. 30.

Whoopsie.

Posted by lvmreader @ 01:57 AM 2 Comments

Goodbye Goldman?

Blogging Stocks: Could Citadel's valuation of E*Trade's CDOs wipe out capital at three big banks?

  • Morgan Stanley: -$29 B (subtract 73% of Morgan Stanley's Level 3 assets of $88 billion -- or $64 billion -- from its capital of $35 billion).
  • Goldman Sachs: -$14 B (subtract 73% of Goldman's Level 3 assets of $72 billion -- or $53 billion -- from its capital of $39 billion).
  • Bear Stearns: -$2 B (subtract 73% of Bear's Level 3 assets of $20 billion -- or $15 billion from its capital of $13 billion).

Posted by lvmreader @ 01:55 AM 1 Comments

Enron was a mild spat in kindergarten compared to this trainwreck

Financial Crookery: The Bond Insurance Barge Scam

Spot the difference: (A) In 1999 Enron effects a transaction through an SPV allowing it to get a [Nigerian power-generating barge] off its books allegedly in order to improve its reported numbers for the period. Later the trade has to unwind and the barge must be brought back on the books rendering Enron exposed to its real (somewhat less impressive) value all the time. (B) In 1999-2007 investment banks effect transactions with SIVs allowing them to get a [lot of credit clag(1)] off the books allegedly in order to improve reported numbers for the period. In 2007 under adverse liquidity conditions [the SIVs with the worst liquidity constraints] fold and the credit clag must be brought back on the books rendering the banks exposed to its real value all the time

Posted by lvmreader @ 01:40 AM 3 Comments

The policies of a Banana Republic, here in Europe

Gold Money: Print, Print, Print

Finance Minister: General Idi Amin Dada, there's no more money left in the Treasury


Idi Amin: Well go print some more



Let's flash back to Weimar Germany in 1923. As that country's monetary problems worsened, the central bank, the Reichsbank, in the misguided thinking of that day printed one-half trillion of Reichsmarks. It also had the aim to provide liquidity.

Is there anything essentially different between what the Reichsbank did and what the ECB just did? Absolutely not.

Posted by lvmreader @ 01:36 AM 4 Comments

Does Goldman's hubris know no bounds?

Guardian Unlimited: Barclays downgraded on credit crunch fears

Yet, Goldman is technically insolvent if it brought its level 3 assets onto the books. And they have the nerve to crow about others! Could they go the way of Arthur Andersen?

Posted by lvmreader @ 01:33 AM 0 Comments

Greedy banks? Who would've thunk it?

Daily Express: Home buyers cheated out of rate cuts

Mortgage firms were last night accused of cynically boosting their profits by not passing on the latest Bank of England rate cut to borrowers. 4 out of 5 lenders have not cut their rates by the full 0.25% yet, although some have announced cuts to take place in the New Year.

Posted by little professor @ 01:06 AM 10 Comments

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Oil prices take over a year to feed through into general inflation and economy. 2008 is Oil crunch time with prices 50% up on last year.

Chicago Tribune: Oil prices will swamp subprime as market driver

Here's my fearless forecast for 2008: The subprime mortgage mess will be far less important to investors next year than the price of oil. The reason is simple: We don't sell our homes once a week, but that's about how often we fill up our gas tanks.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 10:56 PM 1 Comments

The uk economy fundamentally sound?

times online: Tempus analysis: Not good

Public borrowing soared in November as corporation tax receipts again fell short of the Government's hopes A current account deficit of 5.7 per cent of GDP (if that doesn't sound alarming, put it this way: for every 100 we are making, we are spending 105.70)t of the Government's hopes

Posted by sold out @ 09:04 PM 4 Comments

Global meltdown.

Goldseek.com: Explosive Money Supply Fuels Global Inflation

The worst is yet to come !

Posted by doomberger @ 05:45 PM 1 Comments

Another Rock?

Guardian: Friends Provident suspends withdrawals from 1.2bn property fund

The global credit crunch claimed another victim today as Friends Provident suspended withdrawals from its 1.2bn property fund, prompting fears that billions of pounds held in unit trusts are now under threat. The insurance group said that investors in the fund, numbering in total 118,000 people, will not be able to access their money for up to six months. It blamed the suspension on a "general sharp decline" in the commercial property market "brought about by the credit crunch". Sound familiar? I suspect like the "Rock" the investors will prefer to make their own decisions and attempt to withdraw

Posted by canalcop @ 05:18 PM 1 Comments

Kaboom: $69 Billion heading to Bank balance sheets

FT Alphaville: ACAs downgrade: billions heading to banks balance sheets

Dominoes really starting to fall. ACA insurer downgraded by Standard & Poor - the bonds they insure against default drop to CCC rating, Pension funds may have to sell at significant loss (if they can find buyers at all.) Banks may be forced to take more debt onto balance sheets. Insolvency risks increase, liquidity likely to dry up again...

Posted by guiriduro @ 05:16 PM 0 Comments

3 year bear market for real estate,

FT Alphaville: Bleak houses, scary charts

The outlook for property prices, on both sides of the Atlantic, is bleak. That much we know. But property derivative markets in the UK and the US are painting a much more negative picture of the economic and financial future than other asset markets.

Posted by ash4781 @ 04:01 PM 0 Comments

I'm afraid we have got it all wrong

mortgagesStrategy: RICS predicts stable house prices in 2008

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors predicts UK house prices to remain stable in 2008. It also predicts repossessions to hit 45,000 next year from 30,000 in 2007.Although RICS foresees little change in prices over the course of next year, RICS acknowledges that the market could experience some short-term weakness. RICS does not believe that any drop in house prices will be lasting - Well a long vacation in Japan might alter this view !!

Posted by jack c @ 03:56 PM 10 Comments

If ...

HereInTheCity.com: The Biggest Single Loss By A Trading Desk On Wall Street

"What makes all this so much more difficult to take, however, is the damage-limitation PR campaign coming out of Morgan Stanley. Mack says that the losses 'should not overshadow the momentum we see in virtually all our other businesses'. Who's he trying to kid ? But going one better was the firm's CFO, Colm Kelleher, who said that 'if you were to normalize our business and take out this $9.4bn charge, you would see that we had a record year across the whole enterprise'. IF. If my aunt had b.lls, Colm, she'd be my uncle. Let's face it, Morgan Stanley has got a bloody nose, and once again faces the prospect of having to rebuild its reputation and its franchise."

Posted by doomwatch @ 03:51 PM 1 Comments

More bad news for Barclays?

FT.com: LBBW bails out Sachsen SIV-lite

Please note the ominous paragraph in this article:The Sachsen SIV-lite is one of a handful of such vehicles created and sold by Barclays Capital, all of which have been pushed to the point of failure by the near closure of the short-term debt markets upon which they relied and the falling value of mortgage-backed investments. A SIV-lite exists to exploit the difference between cheap short-term funding and the higher returns available on longer-term investments such as mortgage-backed bonds. One such deal, Cairn High Grade Funding run by Cairn Capital, the London-based hedge fund manager was weeks ago restructured, with Barclays providing long-term funding.

Is Barclays Bank solvent?

Posted by lvmreader @ 03:47 PM 16 Comments

Bear Stearns reports first quarterly loss in 84 years

FT.com: Bear ends year with $1.9bn credit writedown

Bear Stearns on Thursday reported its first quarterly loss following a writedown of $1.9bn on its mortgage inventory, nearly twice the amount it had told investors to expect. We are obviously very upset with our 2007 results, particularly in light of the fact that weakness in fixed income more than offset strong and, in some areas, record-setting performance in other businesses, said Jimmy Cayne, chief executive. Our underlying fixed income business remains strong and we have taken steps to size the division to market conditions. Mr Cayne, along with other top Bear executives, has agreed to forgo a bonus for 2007. John Mack, Morgan Stanley chief executive, made a similar move on Wednesday when the bank announced a loss for the fourth quarter and a $9.4bn writedown.

Posted by lvmreader @ 03:45 PM 0 Comments

Chinese are taking over Wall Street

FT: China sinks 5Billion in Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley has become the third top bank in a month to raise capital from a foreign state wealth fund. China Investment Corp has paid $5 billion for a 10% stake in the company. CIC, which invests China's $1,300 billion of foreign reserves, also paid $3B for 10% of Blackstone while CITIC has bought 10% of Bear Stearns, raising concerns that the Beijing regime is flexing its financial muscle to take control of key Western assets.

Posted by little professor @ 03:05 PM 12 Comments

Now the debt insurers are losing their credibility!

Peston's Picks: The next threat

Don't really understand what these insurers do, but they can't have been doing a good job if their insurance decisions are now being doubted by the market. Printing more money won't make this problem go away.

Posted by paul @ 02:52 PM 4 Comments

Bond Insurers Downgraded

BBC News: The Next Threat

Peston comments on the consequences of bond insurers ratings being downgraded. Something I believe cgnao posted on some time ago......

Posted by leedsproperty @ 02:32 PM 0 Comments

You heard it in the Guardian first, Times and Telegraph are no help these days, go figure

Guardian: New liquidity rules could force up mortgage rates

In a discussion paper published yesterday, the FSA said it was planning to develop new reporting requirements over the next year. Banks and building societies will be required to provide a monthly analysis of their cash flow position. The FSA also intends to put banks and building societies on the same footing, ending more lenient rules for building societies.

Posted by darren @ 01:27 PM 0 Comments

35% deposit needed for buy to let on new build

Firstrung: Woolwich restricts lending to 65% on buy to let new build

Woolwich have stunned the buy to let mortgage market by announcing that they will not consider LTVs (loan to values) above 65% on new build property. Firstrung would suggest that were Woolwich lead others will follow, particularly those lenders who source wholesale funding from, for example Barclays, Woolwich's parent company... New Build - Where an application is received for a Purchase, Remortgage or Further Advance for a new build property (where the first registration of the property was 2 years or fewer) the loan to value will be restricted to 65% regardless of the property type

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:12 PM 20 Comments

Still no mention of the 'r' word.

The Times: Mortgages slump as repossessions set to surge

Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at RICS, said: "The effect of the credit crunch will dissipate slowly, meaning that those seeking to obtain finance in the first half of 2008 may struggle. However, the employment picture should remain firm throughout the year, helping to prevent significant numbers of repossessions and the subsequent influx of supply into the market."

Posted by hpwatcher @ 12:09 PM 5 Comments

Nero fiddles whilst Rome burns .....

The Guardian: Black hole in Britain's public finances deepens

A bit more irresponsibility to come no doubt, increasing the chance of that hangover; "While consumer spending rose by 1.1% in the third quarter - the fastest rate for over a year, the saving ratio fell to 3.4% from 4%." However; "Mortgage lending saw the first year-on-year fall for more than two years as lending last month dropped 8% to 30.7bn" And ooopps; "This morning's flurry of UK data paints a worrying picture of a dangerously unbalanced economy," said Jonathan Loynes at Capital Economics. "Overall, a pretty ugly picture, supporting our view that the coming economic slowdown will be a prolonged period of adjustment rather than a short pause for breath like that seen in 2005."

Posted by jonathan @ 12:02 PM 2 Comments

Ugly picture emerging.

Reuters: Q3 current account gap hits record high

Reuters said ..."Overall, a pretty ugly picture, supporting our view that the coming economic slowdown will be a prolonged period of adjustment rather than a short pause for breath like that seen in 2005," . It will take more than afew cuts to sort out the mess that the UK is in at the moment.

Posted by doomberger @ 11:51 AM 1 Comments

Ahhh... Gordonomics! - What a mess!

BBC: this to a friend Printable version

The data is evidence of a "dangerously unbalanced economy", according to Jonathan Loynes of Capital Economics. In a monthly report on government financing, the Office for National Statistics said that public sector net borrowing hit a record 11.21bn in November. Mr Loynes added that the borrowing figures suggested that the government was on track to overshoot its pre-Budget report forecast by at least 5bn this year. "Overall, a pretty ugly picture, supporting our view that the coming economic slowdown will be a prolonged period of adjustment rather than a short pause for breath like that seen in 2005," he explained.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 11:40 AM 9 Comments

Headlines like this do not a strong housing market make

Metro: Recession fears grow as shop sales slide

They've even wheeled in some independent financial planner or other ;-) who confirms that the housing market is going to hell in a handcart.

Posted by paul @ 11:30 AM 1 Comments

Why you must avoid becoming a forced seller

MoneyWeek: The high cost of spending yourself rich

What's a once-great investment bank like Morgan Stanley to do when it falls on hard times? Hope that China or a Gulf state is willing to bail it out. But as thousands of homeowners are about to find out, its never a good idea to be a forced seller...

Posted by mary @ 10:57 AM 0 Comments

Mortgage lending down

BBC News: Mortgage data points to slowdown

Mortgage lending dropped by 8% in November, providing more evidence of a weakening housing market, lenders said. Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) data showed gross lending fell to 30.7bn in November, down from 33.5bn in October and 33.2bn in November 2006. It is the first time that monthly lending levels have dropped below the same month in the previous year since July 2005. The CML figures support other surveys showing a declining property market.

Posted by jason @ 10:52 AM 2 Comments

Substantial loosening in BOE policy

Times: MPC verdict is a seven or eight on the Richter scale

The quarter-point cut in the base rate earlier this month was an emphatic signal that policymakers had started to see the world in a different light. Minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, published yesterday, underline how profound a change in thinking there has been. For a start, the decision was unanimous. Not a single hawk was arguing for more time. More significant still was the tone of the minutes, which read more doveishly than for many years.

Posted by jack c @ 10:47 AM 3 Comments

The real effect of falls in house prices - a dent in expectation

Telegraph: Will the housing market suffer in 2008?

This country is so damn obsessed with house prices, we have completely forgotten about anything that creates real wealth, like manufacturing... ''Rising interest rates made in the run-up to 2007 were already starting to bite and despite reassurances from analysts that the housing market was on firm foundations, prices did begin to fall. By the autumn Nationwide and Halifax data showed that price falls were real. There were fears that novice landlords who snapped up new build flats with the lure of incentives would get their fingers burnt. Auctioneers reported that increasing numbers of new-builds were being repossessed and were going under the hammer for 30 per cent less than the owner paid just two years earlier.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 10:19 AM 2 Comments

Bovis Homes downgraded to sell

ABCMoney.co.uk: London Shares

This morning, Citigroup downgraded Bovis Homes to 'sell' from 'buy'

Posted by doomwatch @ 09:39 AM 0 Comments

There it is then - MPC targets house prices and inflation can let rip - A one way bet then; this makes me feel quite sick!

Telegraph: Interest rates could fall to 4pc by end of 2008

Interest rates could drop to as low as four per cent next year after the Bank of England indicated a "substantial loosening" of policy to revive the flagging housing market.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:09 AM 45 Comments

Race to the bottom coming up?

Bloomberg: Trichet May Be Forced to Drop Focus on Inflation

Economists at Deutsche Bank AG, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Morgan Stanley say Trichet ( who told the European Parliament yesterday that efforts to deliver price stability and encourage banks to lend are ``totally separate'' ) may be forced to follow the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates as higher credit costs hurt the broader economy

Posted by alan @ 08:46 AM 0 Comments

Let's See You Spin You Way Out of This

Guardian: Repossessions likely to rise by more than 50%, say surveyors

Home repossessions are likely to leap by more than half next year to 45,000, more than seven times the number seized in 2004, according to a forecast from a leading property trade body.

Posted by quiet guy @ 08:33 AM 0 Comments

Lawyers get rich quick scheme!

FT: Barclays lodges lawsuit against Bear

Christmas is coming for the lawyers! Barclays is filing a law suit against Bear Stearns over the failure of its hedge fund. Bear Stearns defends itself by saying "While we do not like to see investors or counterparties lose money, we believe this lawsuit is an attempt by Barclays to avoid taking responsibility for its own actions" I think next year big bonus will be to the lawyers and not the bankers. EA better get ready for some new customers - oh and make sure your property descriptions are correct otherwise you might be in trouble!

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:04 AM 3 Comments

A 1 Billion USD Synthetic CDO by Clifford Chance - Whoopsie

Clifford Chance: Recent European Cash CDO Transactions

If you thought you knew what was coming, brace yourself. Here is a list of SOME of the work ONE of the big global law firms has been doing. Please note the Rebalanced synthetic securitisation in respect of a reference pool of asset backed securities and credit default swaps having an aggregate notional amount of US$1,212,961,347. Notes were issued in both Euro (EUR56,000,000) and US Dollars (US$28,000,000) Client: Westpac Banking Corporation, Swap Counterparty

Goodbye Westpac!

Posted by lvmreader @ 02:16 AM 7 Comments

Looks like those bonuses may pass the housing market by

The Times: The best places to invest a bonus

"Last year, bankers invested the bulk of their money in property. Savills, an estate agency, estimated that about 5.5 billion of 2006s 8.8 billion UK bonus round went into bricks and mortar. But with concerns that house prices may fall next year, they are expected to look elsewhere for a home for their money"

Posted by planning4acrash @ 01:34 AM 1 Comments

Future does not look good for Savers.

Times Online: Tempus analysis: Going down

The message from the Bank of England could hardly be clearer: rates are coming down again and possibly by quite some way.

Posted by hawk @ 12:44 AM 0 Comments

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Inflation Pressures Mount as Pound Falls

Market Watch: Pound trades back below $2 mark for first time in three months

Worries over weakening UK economy prompt Sterling sell off after BOE minutes released, the recession starts here so fasten your seatbelts for a bumpy 2008.

Posted by enuii @ 10:17 PM 8 Comments

Another raft of scary articles on the financial system

TheOilDrum.com: The Finance Round-Up: December 19th 2007

....To put it in the simplest of terms, the total amount of bank capital in the entire country (USA) is a little over $1.1 trillion while more than $11 trillion in real estate loans exist meaning that a 10% to 15% loss on those loans would translate into the complete bankruptcy of the US banking system. What this all means is that we have a crisis of solvency, not liquidity. Ouch!

Posted by planning4acrash @ 09:31 PM 3 Comments

This is why Manchester is so cheap!

YouTube: The 12 days of Chavmas

Watch the video and observe. Beware the indigenous population of the north!

Posted by new_order @ 09:27 PM 16 Comments

Miami Vice

South Florida Sun: Federal agents charge 31 people in mortgage loan fraud

Federal officials in Miami announced charges Monday against 31 people accused of participating in a scheme to illegally obtain mortgage loans worth roughly $14 million. Prosecutors said the group's leaders secured inflated loans for the purchase of at least 28 properties and then pocketed the difference between the loan and the actual purchase price.

Posted by alan @ 07:44 PM 0 Comments

Health Warning - Don;t read this if you have a heart problem and savings!

Market Oracle: Collapse of the Modern Day Banking System - Staring into the Abyss

A long article that predicts that there will be many more bank runs as banks have to write down losses thus erroding there capital base. The Fed and others are powerless to stop this.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 07:22 PM 7 Comments

It's not stoppable

Der Spiegel: CRUMBLING PILLARS

Another post from your local Euro monitor: Growler! "if a number of these state-owned banks run into financial difficulties, it could jeopardize the entire system. Although this scenario was considered extremely unlikely until now, the American subprime mortgage crisis has done more than just upset worldwide financial systems. The most spectacular losses in this crisis have been limited primarily to non-German financial institutions until now". As this article illustrates; the conservative, traditionally risk-averse German banking system has also been a victim of the US subprime problems. Expect more than "Rock in a hard place" in the UK for sure

Posted by growler @ 07:21 PM 3 Comments

I have posted this more for the graph

CNN: More woes for Morgan Stanley

have a look at the graph, makes for interesting reading...

Posted by mark @ 06:31 PM 1 Comments

When Metal Floats - and Paper Sinks

Safe Haven: Only Gold Can Beat the Credit Crunch

The 'knife' that carved this gash into the financial system's was the jagged blade of monetary reality: the realization that debt cannot be piled on debt forever. To no one's surprise, the band aid wasn't big enough. The bleeding of red ink continues, and the life-draining fluid is carried onward by deep sea currents in the ocean of profligate credit

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 03:35 PM 13 Comments

Human evolution has speeded up over the past 80,000

The Economist: Human evolution

Not directly related to HPC but interesting anyway. We have talked a lot about expontial functions in this blog. Here is another - see the evolution graph towards the end of the artcle. For those interested, this is exactly what the Mayan Calendar is all about - exponential evolution. I think 2008-12 is going to be quite some roller coaster.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 03:28 PM 11 Comments

And another $9.4 billion

Yahoo Finance: Morgan Stanley Post Loss on 4Q Writedown

Morgan Stanley, the No. 2 U.S. investment bank, reported a $9.4 billion writedown on Wednesday from bad bets on mortgage-related debt, leading it to take a $5 billion infusion from an arm of the Chinese government. The writedown, nearly triple what Morgan Stanley warned of in November, pushed the investment house to the first quarterly loss in its 73-year history.

Posted by doomwatch @ 02:43 PM 6 Comments

Struggling with household bills? Finding the TV license fee a bit too much these days? Here is some news to cheer you up.

BBC: BBC to buy homes from staff in 16m relocation bonanza

The BBC is to buy the homes of up to 1,500 staff and give them relocation packages of about 8,000 each as part of plans to shift operations to the North. The corporation will spend as much as 16.5million of licence fee money to help an army of workers move house. Despite pleading poverty over a 2billion funding gap, the corporation can afford to spend up to 3,000 on curtains and carpets for anyone moving near the new base in Salford.

Posted by sovietuk @ 01:41 PM 12 Comments

It's a chart, it's a correlation!

FT Alphaville: Subprime warning signs were made of cheese

Some light relief - prices of land on the moon appear to be a decent indicator of prices in US real estate!

Posted by james @ 10:56 AM 0 Comments

Get ready for a huge gust of inflation

BBC: Bank unanimous on cutting rates

All nine policymakers at the Bank of England voted to cut UK interest rates to 5.5% from 5.75% earlier this month, minutes show. Policymakers also discussed whether slowing economic growth meant a bigger rate cut might be needed. Analysts said the unanimous vote could boost expectations of another interest rate cut in January.

Posted by jack c @ 10:25 AM 13 Comments

350bn is not enough

FT: Investors stunned by ECBs 350bn

Why not 3 trillion and fix this problem once and for all? Hyperinflation is the only solution, the last thing we want is people living within their means! Weimar Republic here we come.

Posted by happyrenterz @ 10:15 AM 9 Comments

Bad news from rightmove and the bulls start spouting...

Daily Express: CHEAPER LOANS SOON FOR MILLIONS

''MILLIONS of home owners can look forward to a happy New Year with interest rates set to tumble, experts predicted last night. The Bank of England is expected to announce a quarter-point drop as early as next month. And in a further boost for borrowers, industry leaders said rates may fall to five per cent or even lower by the middle of the year.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:39 AM 24 Comments

Magiconomic days are over and blame game has begun

Telegraph: Magiconomic days are over and blame game has begun

Jeff Randall notes "The UK housing market is past its peak and heading south. House prices went up by about 150pc in 10 years, wages by a small fraction of that. An idiot in a hurry could see that the maths didn't work, yet experts kept insisting that demand would force prices ever higher."

Posted by becky @ 08:32 AM 6 Comments

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Panel of 'experts' states

Evening Standard: Property prices to hold next year

House prices in London will not crash next year, according to the majority of pundits. They believe prices will remain static, although a few experts are more optimistic and predict rises of up to 6% [Guess who the "experts" are? Go on, guess]

Posted by little professor @ 10:45 PM 12 Comments

Central Banks "Injecting Liquidity" smoke and mirrors

Hussman Funds: A Little Acid Test for Fed "Liquidity"

"Case in point is the ridiculously over-hyped term auction facility announced last week. According to that announcement, the Fed plans to auction about $40 billion of liquidity this week: ...". $39 billion of funds borrowed from the Fed mature this week (and have to be paid back) and now they are injecting $40 billion. So all they are doing is rolling over the loan. No injection at all. The Fed is doing nothing because there is nothing to be done. It wouldn't surprise me if the BoE and ECB are up to the same over-hyped non-action.

Posted by happyrenterz @ 10:44 PM 0 Comments

Has Jeremy been on the Leaf

Hot Property: Landlords 'to take solace from rents'

Sheer desperation from Hot Property as it quotes a certain person from RICS as stating that Landlords can rest assured that their tenants cannot afford to buy their own properties because they cannot save up deposits after paying increased rents.

Posted by enuii @ 10:27 PM 5 Comments

BTL final blow: desperate sellers put property back on the rental market

ThisIsBath: Desperate home owners are trying to rent out their properties after failing to sell them, according to a report out today

As long anticipated, having failed to sell their "investments" the desperate BTLosers have created a glut of rental properties, as also proved by the latest Primelocation.com report. Rental housing stock is at all time high and counting, thus depressing the rental market and forcing other so called investors into insolvency. Merry Christmas to all the BTLosers!!

Posted by confused76 @ 10:04 PM 14 Comments

It's a LOOOOOONG way to the bottom

The New York Times: Housing Starts Decline 3.7%

The housing market, in its deepest rut since the early 1990s, showed little sign of stabilization in November, and economists expect conditions to worsen in the near term.

Posted by acetip @ 09:36 PM 0 Comments

It will be March next year before banks declare the extent of their losses

Telegraph: BoE's King says sense of 'fear' needs dispelling

BoE says it will be March next year before the banks declare the extent of their losses. In addition, they are now awash with cash - well thats a surprise after being given 500billion today! Finally, BoE does not think that bankers understand the sub-prime market!! Is somebody going to tell us something we don't know?

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 09:08 PM 6 Comments

Mervyn King Opening Statement to HoC

Bank of England: Mervyn King Opening Statement to HoC

An explanation of what has been going on in the money markets. One statement to note is "a unique feature of the U.K. banking system is that the amount the BoE lends to the banks each month is determined by the banks themselves"!!!!!! Generally, an interesting read.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 08:55 PM 0 Comments

Anyone surprised?

Reuters: Platinum hits record high

Platinum set a record high on Tuesday as strong industrial demand and market tightness prompted speculators and consumers to buy the metal. Gold advanced more than 1 percent to trade above $800 an ounce, and remained vulnerable to wide fluctuations because of thin markets ahead of Christmas and year-end holidays.

Posted by alan @ 07:46 PM 0 Comments

Staring in the abyss !!!

Online Journal: The collapse of the modern day banking system

Readers would be advised o digest every word of this article. The banks are staring in the abyss and worse is to come. The federal reserve and the BOE are jumping through hoops to try and stabalise the markets to no avail. Armegedon is staring everyone in the face.

Posted by doomberger @ 05:26 PM 6 Comments

A Little Light Entertainment

Assetz: THE TRUTH ABOUT THE PROPERTY MARKET

"Professional investors in any market act against the crowd. This is the opportunity to think like a professional investor and buy at a time of market pessimism, with a 10 to 15 year plan. What is more, rents will pretty much cover your mortgage straightaway with strong returns already being reported." Enjoy.

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:20 PM 22 Comments

Italy - rising rents, rising interest rates, stagnant wages - the end of the middle classes?

Bloomberg: Italians Dressed in Sunday Best Forced to Dine in Soup Kitchens

"I never thought I would be in this position,'' said Cepponi, 45, a security guard, dining in a charity cafeteria near Rome's main train station. "I have a job, I had a car, but everything has become so expensive and what I earn just isn't enough." --- Rents today sap more than half the income of families earning less than 30,000 a year, up from a third in 2000. Each day nine tenants are evicted in Rome because they can't afford rent, up from about five daily in 2000. -- One in four homeowners can no longer afford their mortgage payments, which have risen 50 percent in two years.

Posted by drewster @ 01:14 PM 17 Comments

Saving rates plummet inside the past three months

Firstrung: Alarming shift in Britons' savings ratios - Unbiased.co.uk

In addition to rising borrowing levels, UK savings dropped by over 11 billion in Q3 2007. This means that for every pound UK consumers saved during the third quarter of 2007, they borrowed 35 pence. This is a significant increase from the 13 pence borrowed against every pound in the previous quarter.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:27 PM 4 Comments

But the doors are closing fast

Firstrung: Buy to let landlords begin their stampede from the property market

New landlord instructions (an indicator of buy-to-let activity) dropped below the long run average of 16%. 11% more Chartered Surveyors reported a rise in landlord instructions compared to 19% in the previous quarter. An uncertain backdrop may have dissuaded new investors in the buy-to-let market. The ongoing credit crunch is likely to have had some impact by encouraging banks and building societies to be more selective in their lending criteria. The survey suggests more landlords are dropping out of the market as the effect of interest rate hikes seeps through.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:25 PM 1 Comments

Pour it on Don't worry you'll get it back

BBC: Treasury extends Rock guarantees

The Treasury has extended financial guarantees to Northern Rock at the request of the troubled lender. It has offered to cover any loss by financial institutions which provide money to Northern Rock so the bank can operate normal banking services.

Posted by holding out @ 11:59 AM 2 Comments

A billion here and a billion there and soon were talking real money!

BBC: ECB lends $500bn to ease credit

Well this is starting to look like a lot of money but what is really worrying is that this is still a drop in the ocean to what the banks need!

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 11:36 AM 13 Comments

pedal to the metal

bbc: More landlords 'leaving market'

The percentage of landlords selling their properties is at a three-year high, according to a surveyors' group. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) blamed the move on previous interest rate rises and a more cautious stance from lenders.

Posted by seanb303 @ 11:29 AM 7 Comments

November Primelocation report is out. London sales prices are 5% down versus July, but it is a real carnage in rentals

Primelocation: November 2007 report

Although prime London property prices have recovered slightly in November after a succession of monthly falls, the trend is unlikely to lead to any sustained increases in price inflation in the short term. Rental values have undoubtedly slowed over the last few months as the supply of available property to rent builds up to record levels." RENTAL STOCK WENT THROUGH THE ROOF!! MWAUUU UAHHA HAHHAHHAHAHH

Posted by confused76 @ 11:01 AM 4 Comments

What a shocker (Part 2)

BBC: UK inflation holds steady at 2.1%

UK inflation remained unchanged in November as lower utility bills offset higher petrol prices. Official figures showed the annual rate of CPI inflation was unchanged at 2.1% last month, just above the government's target of 2%. Observers say the data could give the Bank of England more opportunity to cut UK interest rates further. My family must have a very obscure shopping basket based on these figures - just had the highest ever quarterly electricity and gas bills having lived in the same house for 23 years.

Posted by jack c @ 10:04 AM 41 Comments

What a shocker!

guardian: Rental demand through the floor

"Demand for flats to rent has fallen sharply over the past three months owing to an over-supply of properties on the market..." Oversupply of properties? but... but... immigration.... the 2012 olympics.....

Posted by inbreda @ 09:36 AM 22 Comments

Forecasts correction of 10% in house prices

Telegraph: UK recession forecast put at 50-50

The prime reason for a slump was an expected fall in house prices, which, according to Halifax, have now fallen consecutively for the past three months. "The last time the Halifax house price index was dropping like this was back in 1995, when the housing market was just getting going after the last crash," said Mr Owen. "I'm no longer comfortable with this view that the housing market can just tread water for a few years. What's much more likely is that there will be outright falls in house prices - probably of 5pc-10pc." He said that there had been four major peaks in house prices and affordability in the post-war period - the late 1940s, 1973, 1989 and, now 2007. "After each of the first three peaks in this post-war period, values dropped by 30pc in real terms.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 09:25 AM 5 Comments

This could drag on for years

The Independent: Millions at stake as credit crisis gets legal

Who pays for default? That is what is at stake.

Posted by hotairmail @ 09:06 AM 0 Comments

Riskier borrowers will pay more for their money

The Time: Borrowers rejected by banks turn to Provident Financial

Riskier customers are turning to doorstep lenders like Provident to borrow money.

Posted by hotairmail @ 09:04 AM 0 Comments

No legislation for making lenders responsible for advising borrowers on the best loan.

Bloomberg: Mortgage Lenders Win Postponement of European Home-Loan Rules

European mortgage lenders won a delay of new marketing and refinancing rules after European regulators said further time is required to assess the market. More study is needed before proposing new laws designed to open up cross-border lending and cut prices for home loans, European Union regulators said in a policy paper being published today

Posted by alan @ 08:46 AM 0 Comments

Property investors smarting from this year's housing bust in the United States might do well to look farther afield -- even out of this world.

Reuters): Property bust? Lunar land prices are rocketing

Property investors smarting from this year's housing bust in the United States might do well to look farther afield -- even out of this world. Internet searches for lunar land prices show the cost of buying an acre of the moon's surface has risen 40 percent since the start of 2007, investment bank UBS told clients in a tongue-in-cheek analysis

Posted by chris @ 07:54 AM 0 Comments

In a surprise move ECB injects even more money

FT: ECB steps up fight to safeguard liquidity

The ECB has said that it will inject an unlimited amount of money at below market interest rates in an effort to avoid a crunch at year end. This will further decrease peoples confidence.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:47 AM 5 Comments

Only eight 0% transfer credit cards left

Fool: Just Eight Balance Transfer Cards Left

Before the credit crunch there were over 100 credit cards that offered 0% interest if you transferred your balance to them; now there are only eight. Ouch this is going to hurt!

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:33 AM 4 Comments

Monday, December 17, 2007

Different take on"Rental market buoyant as sales stagnate"

Telegraph: Buy-to-let landlords quit the housing market

It will also re-ignite concerns over the housing market. Many experts have warned that the buy-to-let sector could be the weakest point in Britain's property market, with some comparing it to the sub-prime sector in the US. RICS also warned that there could be an even bigger exodus from the sector in April, when new, lower capital gains tax rates for property investors kick in.

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 11:55 PM 0 Comments

There are i@iots, prize i@diots, David Smith, and there is Judith Heywood -- the cheerleader in chief

Times: Rental market buoyant as sales stagnate... no! it is moderating... no! flats are empty... eemmm errrr...

When Judith does not know what to say she barks some B/S and the Times promptly publishes. This article says absolutely nothing, and its opposite. "The rental market typically flourishes in a downturn. But, after a buoyant second quarter in which many investors began to make up for several years of subdued rental growth, buy-to-let owners will be disappointed to learn that the boom in demand and rents charged is already moderating." This will remain as one of the best quotes signalling the start of the BTL crash. Thank you Judith you are memorable i@iot.

Posted by confused76 @ 09:59 PM 2 Comments

It's a game of chicken!!

BBC News: Majority of lenders pass on cut

"I am surprised at the extent to which the full cut has been passed on," he said. "Particularly when you bear in mind that the widening spread between bank rate and the cost of funds in the wholesale money market has increased the cost of borrowing for almost all lenders." He predicted that if, as expected, there is a further Bank of England rate cut in the new year, those lenders who chose to pass on the cut in full this time will find it very difficult to do so again.

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 08:59 PM 0 Comments

Wolfgang contemplates (but rejects) the possibilty of an inflationary escape.

FT.com: Hold tight, the central banks have no plan

In an environment in which central banks target a low rate of inflation, the lions share of the adjustment will have to come from falling nominal house prices. That was different in the 1970s, when high inflation took care of the real price adjustment........... ......... Let us assume that the housing downturn is going to last eight years. A 2 per cent annual inflation rate the target of many central banks today adds up to 17 per cent inflation for the entire period; and a 4 per cent annual rate adds up to 37 per cent. So if UK house prices have to fall 40 per cent in real terms which is not exaggerated given the extent of the bubble an annual inflation rate of about 4 per cent would take care of the problem. Nominal houses prices would then not have to fall.

Posted by tick tock @ 08:17 PM 5 Comments

Let the stamped begin!!!

Telegraph: Buy-to-let landlords quit the housing market

I bet they cant get out as quick as they got in, in my opinion were going down by at least 30% from peak to troth over three years. Im being conservative too!!! I will enjoy watching the greedy Btl'er suffer, im a home owner but believe each person deserves to have thier own home. Sit tight first time buyers, for your patience will be rewarded.

Posted by lee @ 06:26 PM 0 Comments

Bank of England's Bulletin Makes Genius Comparison

BBC 'News': Fix-rate mortgages 'face squeeze'

"About 8% of all mortgage holders said they were having problems repaying, amounting to roughly one million people. But that was half the percentage seen back in 1991 in the depths of the then housing recession." Oh so that's okay. Comparing data from today, when everything is apparently dandy, to the data from the lows of the last housing crash is perfectly rational science in the same way that that comparing the cockpit instrumentation of flight 11 just before it slammed into the WTC would have yeilded equally optimistic data when compared to the intrumentation of flight 175 at the point when it was passing the lift shafts inside the WTC.

Posted by lukeskywalker @ 05:43 PM 0 Comments

Let's see them try to talk this one away...

FT.com: World food price rises set to hit consumers

''Global food prices were under further pressure on Monday as benchmark prices for cereals at much higher levels came into operation, making it almost inevitable that a second wave of food price inflation will hit the worlds leading economies. In Chicago wheat and rice prices for delivery in March 2008 have jumped to an all-time record, soyabean prices are at a 34-year high and corn prices at an 11-year peak. Knock-on price rises are set to hit consumers in coming months, raising inflationary pressure and constraining the ability of central banks to mitigate the slowdown in their economies.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 05:02 PM 1 Comments

There are i@iots, there are prize i@iots, and there is David Smith

DavidSmith: Home economics: 16 December 2007

He has developed a fixation for housing, is he a BTL landlord? His weekly commentary is now material for stand up comedians. "we have a situation where the BoE actions have less impact than they did two years ago. Even the prospect of more rate cuts, which the markets expect, will be less of an elixir for the housing market than it would be in normal circumstances. How will all this pan out? My view, shared by several forecasters, is that the positive effect of rate cuts will balance the negative impact of the credit crisis, giving us flat house prices for 2008 as a whole. Others, it is only fair to say, are gloomier." Elixir... mwauuu auauuau uuahhah hahahhahah

Posted by confused76 @ 04:41 PM 13 Comments

Falling property values

Citywire: Falling property values put question mark over Northern Rock bail out

The fall in the property market has put a question mark over the raising of cash to bail out Northern Rock. When the only two runners left in the race, Sir Richard Branson's Virgin and Luqman Arnold's Olivant, first made their approach to the board of the Newcastle-based bank, the impression given was that the 10 billion necessary for the rescue was in place. But as over the weekend Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling is understood to have appointed Goldman Sachs to assembly the package, there are doubts that with falling property values these assets are enough to secure the 10 billion.

Posted by jack c @ 04:39 PM 0 Comments

15 years to build 3 million homes

Observer: Brown reveals housebuilding tsar

Sir Bob Kerslake, chief executive of Sheffield Council, is this week expected to be named as the most powerful man in British housebuilding when he is unveiled as the head of the new Housing and Communities Agency.

Posted by ash4781 @ 04:15 PM 0 Comments

Written in 2003, this guy saw this mess coming

Gold Eagle: Apocalypse This Way Comes

"The poisonous ideas that resulted from the philosophical train wreck of the 1900-1920 era have been seeping into our culture ever since to create a whole series of destructive historical waves. The first of these destructive waves was the Great Depression and its resultant Keynesian-New Deal revolution. Following thereafter were others such as the "new-left hippie revolution" in the sixties, the "compulsive consumerism" of the eighties, and the hallucinatory "new economy/market bubble" of the nineties that Greenspan, Clinton, and Rubin bestowed upon us. But because the ideological train wreck was so momentous 90 years ago, we are now entering a TIDAL era of history in which the waves will become epochal and apocalyptic."

Add to this the 2006-7 housing bubble

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 04:12 PM 11 Comments

A&L survey shows BTL alive and well (LOL)

Mortgage Solutions: Landlords optimistic about buy to let market

Buy-to-let landlords are optimistic about 2008, with 71% seeing their overall prospects as good or very good, according to research from Alliance & Leicester. When it comes to the outlook for the year ahead, nine out of 10 (92%) of professional landlords are confident or very optimistic about the coming months, whereas just over half of those with one property (56%) share that degree of optimism. Over three quarters of landlords (77%) claim they are making a profit out of their properties with 22% of these able to save some of this income and boost their savings.

Posted by jack c @ 04:01 PM 14 Comments

Economic Depression/Kondratieff Winter, till 2010-12

Safe Haven: Credit Crunch Update

Bottom Line: The Fed will continue to intervene and will stop at nothing to save our banking systems. This incessant intervention will eventually hyper-inflate our currency, but the lending crisis will still remain/get worse (credit will become unavailable). These issues will probably take several more years to play out, so I don't think we will see the ultimate bottom, and the ensuing Economic Depression/Kondratieff Winter, till 2010-12.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 03:22 PM 2 Comments

It Is the Debt, Stupid!

Safe Haven: "Reckless" Lending By Central Banks and Its Consequences

For those of you who are worried about inflation, the total household debt growth below $300B annual rate will lead to outright deflation within months (inflation always lags). Household debt growth is inflationary in the present and deflationary in the future. Fed has been fighting deflation for the past five years by maintaining elevated rate of household debt growth! Controlled inflation, around 3%, has been Fed's policy for the past 25 years, after Volcker tamed inflation. There is no such thing as "corrosive deflation," Mr. Greenspan; there is only corrosive inflation. The policy of controlled corrosion in purchasing power is a bad one for the American workers and, especially, the poor.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 03:20 PM 1 Comments

Consequences of Greed and Stupidity

Telegraph: Debt burden higher than during 1991 recession

The proportion of households paying more than 20pc of their gross salaries on mortgages and other debts is now higher than it was in 1991, amid the last housing crash.

Posted by quiet guy @ 02:39 PM 1 Comments

They really have lost the plot this time

Mortgagestrategy: Around 8% of mortgagors struggled with payments in 2007

Around 8% of mortgagors faced difficulty meeting repayments in 2007, a survey by the Bank of England has found. The BoE says that fewer people struggled with mortgage payments in 2007 than back in 1991, when the figure was nearly twice as high.The survey also shows that those on fixed rate deals that had expired during the course of the past year were worst off, with 22% struggling to cope with repayments.Only 5% of those on continuing fixed rate deals faced difficulties, whilst 6% of those on variable rates had problems. The justification of why it is different this time has to be a late April fools joke !

Posted by jack c @ 02:11 PM 4 Comments

of interest

Oxford Club: The Real Estate Bubble End Result

I found this interesting. An American explains reasons why he thinks (in 2005) the bubble is about to burst, comparing it with Japan. Sounds like hes an "honest joe" and he explains that from 1975 to 2000 prices have remained flat with a (bubble) explosion thereafter. He says (take note Maddisson) "Yes, there could be another year or two of good times, and I'll miss 'em. But I'm okay with that."

Posted by techieman @ 02:06 PM 1 Comments

Timber

First Rung: UK house prices crash in December by on average 7,500

Sellers need to price aggressively and banks need to get their own houses in order to improve liquidity as quickly as possible. We are in a different world compared to previous housing downturns. It is a world of international banking interdependencies, and a world in which the robustness of the UK housing market has never been tested". - Miles Shipside Rightmove.

Posted by landedgentry @ 01:14 PM 0 Comments

Pretty soft coverage of the rightmove data

BBC News: Sharp fall in house asking prices

"The average asking price of homes put up for sale in England and Wales fell sharply in December, according to estate agents Rightmove. It said December's figure had been distorted by a disproportionate number of one- and two-bedroom properties coming on the market in the past few weeks." Considering the frankly shocking nature of the data from Righmove, this article from the BBC feels very soft & puts lots of emphasis on the HIP's effect, without reporting the stripped-out data, which is the REAL story. Story is not even featured on News 24.... considering the newsworthy nature of the story, leaves you with some questions around brushing stories under the carpet & protecting the vested interests....?

Posted by gh @ 11:44 AM 19 Comments

Buy-to-let mortgages plunge on market fears

Daily Telegraph: Buy-to-let mortgages plunge on market fears

"The days of making a quick buck as a buy-to-let landlord could be numbered, as figures released by Hamptons International today revealed that the number of buy-to-let mortgages taken out plunged nearly 26pc last month." As if they're not numbered already!!!

Posted by becky @ 11:41 AM 5 Comments

Update with key points and link to the Rightmove report

Firstrung: UK house prices crash in December by on average 7,500

"Sellers need to price aggressively and banks need to get their own houses in order to improve liquidity as quickly as possible. We are in a different world compared to previous housing downturns. It is a world of international banking interdependencies, and a world in which the robustness of the UK housing market has never been tested". - Miles Shipside Rightmove.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:30 AM 3 Comments

Why banks don't want to lend money anymore

MoneyWeek: The truth behind rising mortgage fraud

Its strange that after a decade-long boom in house prices, its only now that banks are starting to find that fraudulent claims are rising. The truth, of course, is that banks are only discovering mortgage fraud now, because they need excuses to knock back as many mortgage applications as they possibly can...

Posted by mary @ 11:20 AM 5 Comments

The sheeple will turn to ANYONE to get credit..

Telegraph: Britons turn to expensive loans as crunch bites

Provident Financial, which lends money door-to-door in the UK to people with a poor credit history, is gaining customers from the high street banks as they impose stricter lending criteria in the wake of the credit crunch. Have you seen their API rates. OUCH!!

Posted by garybug @ 11:12 AM 2 Comments

The next wave to hit banks and ratings agencies - Banks looking pretty shaky now IMHO.

MSNBC: Lehman faces legal threat over CDO deals

Lehman Brothers faces the threat of legal action by municipal councils in Australia over the sale of high-risk collateralised debt obligations by the Wall Street bank's local subsidiary, Grange Securities. At least two councils in New South Wales and a third in Western Australia are considering litigation against Grange, which marketed Lehman-originated CDOs to dozens of Australian councils as well as to charities and a public hospital provider.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:20 AM 0 Comments

Banks now ( temporarily ) oversold??????

Our house - in the middle of a slump

The Telegraph: House sales slump forcing price cuts

House sellers are cutting prices at the fastest rate for five years in a further sign that the property market is set for a serious slowdown. Asking prices have fallen by 3.2 per cent since November, according to data from Rightmove, a website that gathers information on nine out of 10 houses on the market. Forecasters say that while prices may only dip a little, house transactions will drop by 20 per cent This means that the average property has lost 7,590 this month and is valued at 232,396.

Posted by onyerhike @ 08:00 AM 0 Comments

The party, is very definitely OVER!

Daily Mail: Credit crisis: A million Britons struggle to meet mortgage payments

''Nearly a million families are struggling to pay off their mortgages, an alarming report has revealed. Another 1.8million people say they have hit problems "at least occasionally". Soaring interest rates have lifted homeowners' annual mortgage payments by a total of 3.6billion in the past year, the Bank of England survey shows....(this is the interesting bit) The housing market and the broader economy are expected to suffer a sharp downturn.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 06:16 AM 1 Comments

More....

Times Online: London house price fall of 6.8% in past month stokes economy fears

House prices in London have fallen by an average of 28,000 in the past month, as the capital sets the pace of an accelerating property downturn, a leading survey reports today. Rightmove, the property website that tracks asking prices for homes across the market, says that prices tumbled by 20,000 a week in affluent Kensington and Chelsea and by more than 10,000 a week in inner-city Hackney.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 05:47 AM 3 Comments

3.65% fall in asking prices, 6.8% in London....WOW!

Firstrung: UK house prices crash by 7,500 as London house prices crash by 28,000 in December

UK house prices plunged in December, due to higher borrowing costs and greater financial uncertainty, the latest survey from Rightmove has revealed. The survey showed that asking prices for houses were 3.2 pct lower in December than in November, this is RM's biggest recorded fall since the data series began in January 2002 and a much sharper fall than last month's 0.7 pct decrease. Rightmove believes that the drop was accelerated by the winter seasonal slowdown, combined with first-time sellers trynig to avoid the home information packs (HIPs) legislation, which in RM's opinion, accounted for about 1.1 pct of the monthly fall.

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:17 AM 59 Comments

The banks' fear of lending is justified

Times: This crisis is no longer a simple problem of liquidity

The distinction between illiquidity and insolvency is the next challenge for monetary authorities. Even if Northern Rock could liquidate all its mortgages tomorrow, it could not raise enough money to repay its depositors and the Bank of England in full, because the market prices of mortgage assets are today much lower than 100p in the pound. This downward revision of asset values forces banks to rein in their lending even more. As a result, the summer liquidity crisis has turned into a loss of confidence in the solvency of the banks.

Posted by drewster @ 12:56 AM 2 Comments

Sunday, December 16, 2007

House prices, bubbles and inflation

FT: Hold tight, the central banks have no plan

"I looked at the Nationwide house price index for the UK. After adjusting for inflation, the result is a line with two interesting characteristics. The first is that there is a surprisingly stable linear trend, with only a moderate upward shift. Real prices go up over time but not by much, and any deviations from the line are followed by a return to trend. The second is that past bubbles were relatively symmetric - both in extent and in time." Unless there has been some structural shift, there is going to be one of the most serious housing downturns ever"

Posted by confused76 @ 11:14 PM 2 Comments

Is the author one of our bloggers?

Times: Apocalypse, wow! I cant wait for the economic meltdown

Obviously the main benefit of a recession is that houses will become affordable again rather than being, as they are at the moment, a commodity only slightly less luxurious than mink kitchen roll. I know people who are excited by escalating house prices. Why do these people enjoy the fact that their house is now worth 300,000 more than they paid for it? "Because if we wanted to down-scale to the countryside, we could live like kings they chortle. Yeah, but thats a terrible rationale.We shouldnt be financially strangling a whole generation on the off-chance that a few people might want to leave Clapham to open a kiln in Leicestershire.

Posted by confused76 @ 11:03 PM 2 Comments

50% sales start pre christmas!

Telegraph: Fashion sales start to boost Christmas trade

The retailers are in a very bad way 50% off just before christmas all bets are 75% off after christmas. Its a silly old world we are living in and such desperate measures. The piggy bank is empty i'm afraid 50% off 75% off and 99% off makes no difference. If there is no money around the shopkeepers will be stuck with unsold stock.

Posted by doomberger @ 10:13 PM 0 Comments

High st shops shut up shop.

Telegraph: High street to see 1,400 retailers go bust

Over 1,4000 high st retailers to shut up shop is just the start. Amagedon here we come!

Posted by doomberger @ 10:07 PM 0 Comments

Big falls in commercial property funds.

Thisismoney.co.uk: Commercial property funds are toppling

The commercial property sector has been crumbling for a while now and the property funds are making it hader for investors to exit. This will get far worse before it gets better. Confidence in commercial property is zilch. Housing will be the next to collapse.

Posted by doomberger @ 09:57 PM 0 Comments

In 2005 King dismissed warning that NorthernCrock business model was unsustainable

DailyMail: Bank of England governor was warned of Northern Rock collapse two years ago

King said the [UK personal debt] situation was being monitored by the BoE and under control. "The vast majority of the debt is secured against a property and it would be of concern only if that was not the case." Baroness Shephard asked: "We cannot understand how Northern Rock can undercut [building societies] with their borrowing rates all the time. Where are they getting the money from?" King minimized the issue "Northern Rock operates under different rules because it is a bank"

Posted by confused76 @ 04:02 PM 7 Comments

global propery guide

global guide: global guide

irrational exuberance at its finest alan....and where is gordon with all our bling..... from a global perspective here it is... ill huff n puff and blow your house down, ...(and if the greenland ice sheet does melt in 5 years sea levels will rise 6 metres) also i have been pondering why 76 confused76, ? are you 76, anyway i like yer style. when youve lost yer sense of humour what else is left.

Posted by camping @ 03:51 PM 0 Comments

Greenspan on subprime, it's the communists' fault

Times: Credit crisis worsens as Alan Greenspan says the Fed is powerless

Greenspan says that a period of low inflation was caused by the end of the cold war. The fairly well educated masses could produce all these cheap goods to export to us. This meant he and other central bankers could drop interest rates and create the worst housing bubble in history. His view is that there is nothing he could do to prevent this and there is now nothing central banks can do to prevent the deflation. He adds that compared to the rest of the world the US housing bubble is average, I think the UK bubble is near the top.

Posted by happyrenterz @ 11:36 AM 18 Comments

Another bearish week, but where's the massive falls? 2008?

Firstrung: Firstrung, first time buyers, the week in focus

The Firstrung team witnessed quite a shift in media consciousness during the past week, and perhaps conscience. The honesty from HBOS (with their empty homes report), RICS and the NAEA with their house price reports and predictions, underpinned by a house price report from DCLG proving house price inflation has now effectively stopped, made for a refreshing change.The CAB waded in with a devestating swipe at sub prime mortgage providers which caused quite a stir in the mortgage industry. Their 'J'Accuse' press release suggested that, far from liberating home buyers, the sub prime industry had destroyed potential home ownership in this country as it encouraged speculation which then caused damaging 'financial irony' ...

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:18 AM 1 Comments

Energy prices to rise up to 17%?

Firstrung: Energy price rise misery on its way for UK customers

British Gas' owner, Centrica, has issued its trading statement highlighting a reduction in profit margins in the second half of 2007 due to increased wholesale prices. If this continues into 2008, the energy giant has hinted that a rise in household energy prices will be inevitable...

Posted by converted lurker @ 10:20 AM 1 Comments

Paragon and Bradford&Binge in the top-4 shorts

Tgraph: Short-selling on FTSE250 at 3-year high

"Paragon, the struggling buy-to-let mortgage lender, is the next biggest short in the index with 21 per cent of its shares shorted. Other big shorts include ... Bradford & Bingley, the mortgage bank" Personally, I am going to sell pounds. Euro is safer, Dollar and Yen are good speculative bets.

Posted by confused76 @ 09:37 AM 2 Comments

House price will fall... the same boring news

Tgraph: Citigroup predicts 10pc fall in house prices

There isn't really anything new to say, but it strikes me the change of tune of the media over the past 2 weeks. "Whether you call it a crash or a slump, this is going to be very painful," said [Citigroup's] Michael Saunders. The central banks' move to inject liquidity into money markets would not "remove the prospect the economy will slow sharply because of the drag from severe housing weakness, high household debts, rate hikes and the tightening of credit availability"

Posted by confused76 @ 09:32 AM 3 Comments

Oh my God! It is a bubble!

Guardian: Home truths: tales from housing's front line

Karen Ward, chief UK economist at HSBC, says that homeowners in the UK have been living in a bubble which is about to burst. 'I didn't find a genuine balance between supply and demand in the property market [no immigrants and divorcees? how about students?]. A lot of demand has been speculative -- people expecting big capital gains on their properties. As people realise rapid gains they were expecting aren't going to materialise [uhuuuuhhhhuuu!] a lot of that demand will drop off.' There is evidence that the buy-to let market in particular is being driven by people buying for the potential profit on their property rather than from the rent they think they can get [no kidding!!]

Posted by confused76 @ 01:11 AM 12 Comments

BTL bail out en mass!! Victory!! Leaches and scavengers are gonna get stuffed!!

Times: Tax change may spark house selling surge

"FEARS are growing that an overhaul of the tax rules for buy-to-let investors and second-home owners could lead to a surge of selling in April, sending precarious property prices tumbling. An estimated 650,000 people with buy-to-lets and second homes will see their tax bill fall significantly if the governments plan to introduce a flat 18% capital-gains tax (CGT) gets the green light." CATCH 22!! If they keep the bill as is, BTL are stuffed from a sell out. If they remove the CGT cut they are stuffed from higher tax rates. In both cases AHHAHH AHHAHHAH AHHAHHAHAH HAHHAH AHHA MWAAAUUUUUUUA UAUAUAUUAUUA

Posted by confused76 @ 01:00 AM 4 Comments

But if the rumour is true...............

New York Times: After the money's gone

Suppose that theres a nasty rumor about the First Bank of Pottersville: people say that the bank made a huge loan to the presidents brother-in-law, who squandered the money on a failed business venture. Even if the rumor is false, it can break the bank. If everyone, believing that the bank is about to go bust, demands their money out at the same time, the bank would have to raise cash by selling off assets at fire-sale prices and it may indeed go bust even though it didnt really make that bum loan. And because loss of confidence can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, even depositors who dont believe the rumor would join in the bank run, trying to get their money out while they can.

Posted by lvmreader @ 12:33 AM 1 Comments

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Kids without toys as credit crunch bites.

Telegraph: Credit crunch hits retailers' Christmas toy sales

As Christmas draws near toy sales are down. The credit crunch is biting and every sector is being hit. Bad time for retailers Laura Ashley was the latest to warn yesterday.

Posted by doomberger @ 08:48 PM 11 Comments

Unbelievable

Independant: James Daley: It's time to batten down the hatches

In fact, in spite of the happy headline on B&B's press release, the lender's statistics tell the true story very well. Apparently, 95 per cent of landlords are positive about rental yields in 2008. No wonder, because as house prices start to nosedive, the one upside for the buy-to-let landlord is that rents will represent a bigger proportion of their properties' values, hence bigger yields.

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 07:48 PM 3 Comments

Quick - send a robot back in time

NBC-TV: Schwarzenegger Will 'Declare Fiscal Emergency' In Weeks

"California is struggling with shrinking state tax revenue from the meltdown of the subprime housing market and the credit crunch on Wall Street". Schwarzenegger made the announcement Friday after meeting with lawmakers and interest groups this week to tell them California's budget deficit is worse -- far worse -- than economists predicted just a few weeks ago.

Posted by alan @ 07:07 PM 20 Comments

Fixed rate bonds still climbing

Halifax PLC: Fixed Rate Halifax Web Saver 7.05% 3month

This proves the banks are desperate for our money. It also proves beyond doubt that LIBOR will not come down in the near future and loans will either become alot more expensive or more scarce. Or I'll loose my money and/or my pound will be worth 100 turkish lira.

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 06:58 PM 3 Comments

Follow up to earlier BBC articles on personal debt

BBC: Bank debts 'drove wife to brink'

Banks are being accused of pressuring customers who have financial problems to take out expensive loans to try to ease their debts, the BBC has learned. Halifax, Lloyds TSB....

Posted by alan @ 06:41 PM 0 Comments

Front page shocker for indebted buy to letters

Financial Times: FRONT PAGE - FIRST SECTION: Buy-to-let financing evaporates

Well, the figures speak for themselves, amazing!! What this means is, that sub-prime BTL won't have access to the market or be able to refinance at the end of teaser rates, putting them into standard variable rates, at the fate of LIBOR rates and risk premiums. Its absolutely amazing how fast this is unravelling. Much quicker than 1992 and you can see that BTL is a big reason for that. Subprime buy-to-let mortgages, which cater for investors with blemished credit records, have virtually ceased to exist. There are now only 18 available in the market for such borrowers compared with 1,383 five months ago, according to Moneyfacts. For prime borrowers, the number of products has dropped from 2,265 in July to 1,724.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 06:18 PM 11 Comments

Front page shocker for indebted homeowners.

Independent: The $4bn killing

House prices are crumbling on both sides of the Atlantic, growing numbers of homeowners face repossession, financial markets are yo-yoing and the UK saw its first run on a bank in living memory. But for three audacious New York traders it all added up to a $4bn (2bn) profit opportunity and the biggest jackpot in the history of Wall Street.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 05:41 PM 2 Comments

The piggy bank is emprty!

Chanel 4 news: Stores bank on last minute spree.

Yesterday footfall for christmas was near 6% down and today BBC news mentioned it had been a dissapointing Saturday! Its bleak guys be under no illusion money has run out. Banks are very worried they have lent too much to too many people that are unable to pay money back....so credit has been restricted. Most are worried about the future and day after day its more gloom. The big "R" word is getting mentioned more every day. Its time to batten down the hatches and wait for the house market to collapse....because as sure as night follows day it will!

Posted by doomberger @ 05:36 PM 2 Comments

Casino economy at it's worst

Sky News: Bankers Make 2bn From Mortgage Slump

Three New York traders are celebrating one of the biggest profits in Wall Street history after making a 2bn bet that sub-prime mortgages would fall in value.The trio at Goldman Sachs, the US investment bank, watched their winnings grow as the rising numbers of mortgage defaults caused chaos in a worldwide financial crisis.

Posted by jack c @ 04:39 PM 5 Comments

B&B one step closer to call in the cleaners

FT: Moody's puts B&B under ratings review

... or, in the best case, the bank will have to stop lending to the BTL sector, now increasingly seen as the British sub-prime. Along the same line we can interpret the desperate attempt by BB management to talk up the rental sector. Unprecedented for a UK bank, last week the top management of BB released a festive market outlook for BTLetters of which I will post links in the comments. Banks are banks and generally want to be seen neutral, but of course that is different if you are that close to receivership. We would welcome some sign the FSA aren't already asleep for the Season.

Posted by confused76 @ 04:05 PM 2 Comments

Lots of property to buy in Bulgaria

Guardian: Would you invest in this ski 'resort'?

A two-night trip to Bulgaria for two for just 39. On the unsolicited email which arrived in my Guardian inbox, the 39 was in big bold type "Call now!" This is 19.50 a person for "flights, resort transfers, accommodation, all your entertainment and dining!" ------------- Tony Levene took them up on the offer - he mentions that although there are plenty of agents in Bansko to sell new-builds to Brits there's not much in the way of resale facilities - so no way to "realise" that potential capital increase. The Bulgarians really are having a laugh at our expense!

Posted by sacred contracts @ 04:03 PM 0 Comments

And the Americans are slaughtering themselves on the road to Bagdad...

Ass etz: Squaring the circle on house-buying and rents

"There's a dual effect of rising house prices, which prices more potential first-time buyers out of the market - which means they have to rent, and rent for longer than they would have done. There's that dual impact, and that's what's tended to happen over the last few years." thus expanding the rental market (I guess he meant the rental demand, but did not mention rental supply has doubled since 2005). "A reversal of trend in which 2008 became a year of falling house prices would not see a reversal of the renting trend" (not clear, maybe he was drunk) "If anything, the uncertainty with house prices will put off potential first-time buyers - on the basis that they could, potentially, buy a house cheaper later on." (So BTLs lose and FTBs win!!)

Posted by confused76 @ 03:56 PM 0 Comments

BBC says banks lend people money and then want it back - how unfair!

BBC "News": Banks 'prey on customers in debt'

Have you noticed how the BBC wraps up its own opinions in quotes. Like:

    Public think BBC 'did the right thing'
    Poll says BBC is 'completely unbiased'
    Britain think BBC is 'doing a great job'

Remember, when you see it in quotes from the BBC its because its the BBC news editors' own opinions

Posted by paul @ 12:49 PM 4 Comments

The monthly Canadian oildrum finance rundown.

The Oil Drum: The Finance Round-Up: December 14th 2007

Oil interests follow finance because of the impact of the economy on oil demand and prices. A feast of articles relevant to the global economy and credit crunch.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 11:48 AM 2 Comments

How stupid we all are!!!

Telegraph: Call to relax Basel banking rules

It's not IR's being too low - or lax lending - or lack of good government controls that has caused this. The solution is not a recession or worse......no......just change the banking laws that have been i place for 30 years - how stupid we all are after all who needs laws?

Posted by waitingfor hpc @ 11:26 AM 3 Comments

Predictions that don't predict

TIC Group: Our Predictions for 2008

TIC is a leading property portfolio adviser and assists in building property portfolios for individuals worth many millions of pounds. The portfolios tend to consist of new build apartments in major conurbations. The article contains a number of predictions which may be irrelevant to property prices. What is missing is their prediction as to where property prices will move over the next twelve months.

Posted by glen @ 10:36 AM 3 Comments

Beware of Easy Credit

Daily Mail: The 100,000-a-year ITN man forced to sleep rough because of debts

"I've met former solicitors, estate agents, people who ran their own businesses and who have now fallen on hard times. I've even met a former millionaire who lost all his money.

Posted by yoyo1 @ 10:11 AM 3 Comments

Turning nasty for the BTLetters

FT: Buy-to-let financing evaporates

"The total number of buy-to-let mortgages on offer to borrowers has almost halved since July after an explosion in recent years of products that helped fuel the UK residential property boom, according to market research from Moneyfacts.co.uk. Subprime buy-to-let mortgages, which cater for investors with blemished credit records, have virtually ceased to exist."

Posted by confused76 @ 10:10 AM 2 Comments

It's only a matter of time

The Times: Why the R word cant be ignored

"It would take a brave soul to believe the Brown line that boom and bust has been abolished and that moderate economic growth can be sustained forever without pause. With bankers in a funk and supplies of credit drying up, monetary policy the main lever of economic control - just wont work as it used to. Cutting interest rates is like pushing on a piece of string." The Times also has a story on lower Christmas sales in todays paper. The next month will set the tone - when the Christmas optimism is over and January and February bring another few months of negative numbers.

Posted by growler @ 08:58 AM 7 Comments

Ramping, after a quick buy?

Times Online: Fidelity manager puts faith in property stocks as he says share values will build

There will always be people who think they can influence the market...so this guy has just bought and is now trying to stimulate growth: ''Anthony Bolton, the veteran fund manager at Fidelity International, is calling the bottom for property stocks and considering buying battered-down shares in housebuilders and retail companies. ...Mr Bolton said that he had bought into a number of well-known UK property stocks in recent weeks. News of Mr Boltons strategy came as a report revealed that prices of commercial property buildings had suffered a record one-month fall in November, twice as steep as the worst monthly price declines felt in 1990, at the depth of the last commercial property recession.'

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:05 AM 7 Comments

Gas Prices Spur Consumer Inflation

AP: Gas Prices Spur Consumer Inflation

Gas Prices Spur Consumer Inflation - With one month to go, inflation in 2007 is rising at an annual rate of 4.2

Posted by no room at the inn @ 12:48 AM 0 Comments

Friday, December 14, 2007

Savills say that London prices will go down more than 10%

ThisIsMoney: London housing hotspots to see prices fall

... and if Savills say that, the truth is probably -20%. "Flats are particularly vulnerable to a sharp fall in value and properties in fringe areas that joined the housing boom late will be among the first to suffer"... and guess what "Meanwhile, investors are no longer convinced property is a good way to make money" no kidding! ...and "just 2bn of City bonus money is expected to be ploughed into bricks and mortar this coming year compared with 5bn in the past year" a nice 60% less. 'The gentrification of London is like the tide,' said Barnes. 'It comes in and goes out but when it comes in it gets a little bit bigger each time.' in the meanwhile you could go bankrupt, but keep smiling

Posted by confused76 @ 03:57 PM 16 Comments

Something for Friday afternoon

Bloomberg: Hedge-Fund Guy Is Up SIV Creek Without a Paddle

Dear investor, we'd like to update you on this year's performance of our hedge fund, Short-Term Capital Mismanagement LLP...

Posted by happyrenterz @ 03:41 PM 0 Comments

Fake Headlines alter Perceptions

LiveScience: Fake Photos Alter Real Memories

Something to think about. Why were so many people easily led into believing house prices always go up, despite all the history? A good study is also "Prospect Theory" by Kahneman and Tversky which talks about how people mismanage risk based on the order of words. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospect_theory The Milgram Experiment and the Stanford Prison experiment offer darker insights into the herd behaviour of humans. Think of the UK Buy to Let phenomenon as the "Economic Jonestown"

Posted by lvmreader @ 03:26 PM 9 Comments

There simply isn't enough money in the UK to cover the debts.........

Money Expert: Personal debt exceeds gross domestic product for first time ever

"Britain's huge level of consumer debt is symptomatic of the country's well-established buy-now-pay-later culture. We can no longer generate enough GDP to cover the amount we owe." The credit culture is something that a number of commentators have picked up on and a significant proportion have blamed both the ease of access to credit and media promotion of a glamorous lifestyle as seemingly enjoyed by celebrities and the rich and famous.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 02:59 PM 5 Comments

An honest and damning appraisal of the credit crunch

Telegraph.co.uk: Credit crunch signals permanent shift in power

In response to the credit crunch, caused by a prolonged period of freely available, cut-price debt, British, American, European, Canadian and Swiss central banks knew precisely what needed to be done: offer the market even more; pump liquidity into the system; hose it down with readies. In short, welcome back Easy Money.

Mervyn King warned against this approach back in August. Now it seems he's fine with it. Worried? We should be.

Posted by paul @ 02:37 PM 3 Comments

ECB in a quandry

BBC: Euro inflation hits six-year high

Higher oil and food prices have sent inflation in the eurozone to its highest level in more than six years.

Posted by holding out @ 02:04 PM 7 Comments

Quick - Cut Interest rates

BBC: High oil prices spur US inflation

US inflation rose in November by it biggest amount in two years, spurred largely by higher energy prices, official figures show.

Posted by holding out @ 02:02 PM 0 Comments

HIPs to get the blame again?

Mortgage Solutions: Small properties on market increase

The number of small properties on the market since November 22 has increased by 39% as sellers have rushed to meet todays home information pack (HIP)deadline.

Posted by jack c @ 01:27 PM 3 Comments

Times Online Recaps Market in 2007

Times Online: The property market 2007 - a region-by-region analysis

This years housing market saw the re-emergence of a north/south divide in England with the average house price in the South 265,921, 68% higher than the average house price in the north of 158,636.

Posted by peter @ 12:53 PM 1 Comments

UK Economy - BoE cannot act aggressively if the credibility of low inflation comes into question

FT: A stress-test for Britains economy

"Why, then, is the UK economy deemed particularly vulnerable by many observers? There seem to be six reasons: first, the UKs housing bubble is deemed bigger than that of the US; second, the UK is particularly dependent on finance and business services; third, the public sector is no longer in a position to increase employment rapidly; fourth, the size of the fiscal deficit makes it hard to counteract a severe downturn; fifth, in a housing downturn, the effectiveness of monetary easing might be limited; and, finally, the Bank of England is proving far too conservative."

Posted by happyrenterz @ 12:12 PM 5 Comments

Optimistice Outlook for London House Prices

FT Alphaville: The nasty endgame for falling UK house prices

Cheerful outlook on London house prices ahead of Christmas...

Posted by saintjay @ 12:09 PM 0 Comments

Go on guys fill ya boots! Chase it down ;)

Firstrung: Hedge fund sector looking to prey on victims

Despite RAB capital getting it badly wrong with Northern Rock, as the subprime crisis continues to unfold attractive opportunities for the hedge fund sector continue emerging, according to Francois Barthelemy, partner at F&C Partners...Despite the recent volatility that led many to describe November as the 'bloodiest' month for hedge funds, the sector is well positioned to benefit from the current turmoil. "Hedge funds tend to suffer in very volatile environments but well-managed portfolios often recover quickly, once the market has come back to some sort of rational pricing of assets," Barthelemy explained. "The real question that people are struggling with is that there are a number of signs indicating that we might be moving into.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:23 AM 2 Comments

Skips piling up with sub prime rubbish

Firstrung: Sub prime mortgage availability falls by 64% since July - Moneyfacts

Exclusive Moneyfacts.co.uk research reveals a significant drop in the number of residential sub-prime mortgage deals available, falling by 64% since July this year. If borrowers have overstretched themselves with an unaffordable sub prime deal, worse troubles could lie in store. Even if they can weather the storm and maintain their mortgage payments until their deal expires, getting a new deal may become almost impossible if the current trend continues. With such a reduction in the number of products and lenders taking a considerably more conservative approach, often not lending to those with the most serious debt problems, finding a lender prepared to take on your loan could prove difficult, not to mention that rates have been rising too.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:20 AM 1 Comments

Disappointing City bonuses this year

ThisIsMoney: Bonus blow looms for Goldman rivals

things that will "disappoint" the property cheerleaders here in London: (a) far less bonus money (10%, 20% less?) that means even less (minus 30% 40%?) into the housing market. (b) most hardly hit will be the average performers, hoping that they read the signal and start looking for other "pastures"; these average performers form the bulk of the tenants in large areas of west london (c) there will be layoffs, US banks in particular. FYI i am also posting the bullish December headlines from previous 2 years... dare to compare

Posted by confused76 @ 11:06 AM 11 Comments

Boom Bust - An Economic Prediction Drafted In 2004

Internet: BoomBust.pdf

Today, I paid 1.36 (US$2.77) for a loaf of white bread of avaerage size (UK 'Tin' Size). Life for senior citizens receiving a UK State Pension is now unbearable. Therefore I have decided to take action and post this. I am sorry that it is a Mother of a Rant, but some one has to do something to STOP the political spin and lies about Gordon Brown's self aclaimed brilliant economic success based entirely on the voters borrowing money to keep his economic catastrophy afloat.

Posted by down wave @ 10:40 AM 14 Comments

Tax may be boring, but it consumes more than 75% of the GDP

MSN Money: What the Tories are promising for your cash

Just landed on my desk, and ok, a bit off topic, and its got a political slant (but now you know just add a bit of common sense", but since the Government takes back over 75% of the GDP into its own coffers, we really should be more aware of how much of a rip-off we are all suffering.

I suggest that everyone reads this if only to just brush-up. Nothing too enlightening, but I encourage you to at least follow the links in the ARticle on "Inheritance Tax", "Stamp Duty", "do not pay any Tax", "Home Information Packs", etc.

Posted by fahrenheit451 @ 10:13 AM 2 Comments

Perhaps they'll be able to afford those properties after all

The Independant: Big bonuses in City despite credit crisis

Top bankers are set to receive even larger multimillion pound bonuses than in previous years, despite the downturn in the global economy, say City figures. Big players in investment banks will learn they have received payments of between 1m and 5m in the next few days as bonus fever grips the City. Exceptional individuals will receive as much as 10m. Yesterday, bankers at Lehman Brothers began discovering the size of their bonuses, a day after Goldman Sachs revealed a record global bonus pool of 9bn. Staff at the US investment bank Morgan Stanley will learn their payouts today, while employees of Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and Barclays Capital will have to wait until after Christmas.

Posted by disillusioned @ 10:11 AM 8 Comments

No mention of this by Kirsty on BBC Q time last night

Times online: Glut of new flats leaves regional markets on verge of collapse

The filling of city centres with Identikit apartments has left the price of such developments in danger of collapse. Housebuilding analysts are giving warning of price falls next year in some regional cities, saying that declines might be followed by years of stagnation.

Posted by jack c @ 10:08 AM 9 Comments

Kirsty flaps like a seagull on Question Time last night

BBC: Question Time Thurs 14 Dec 207

Ah bless her, she was doing so well till the question about over-inflated house prices came up. "... how do you define an inflated market ? ..." classic She bumbled on until it became embarrising for all. Piers blurted out the truth though, and it all went quiet. 32 mins in.

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:04 AM 19 Comments

Time please Ladies and Gentlemen.

Telegraph: Credit crunch signals permanent shift in power

As any drunk will tell you, however, the longer the boozefest goes on, the harder it is to sober up. Presented with the prospect of drying out, befuddled party-goers invariably demand "one for the road". The horrors of a hangover are beyond contemplation, so they carry on drinking.

Posted by sovietuk @ 09:57 AM 1 Comments

Watching the indicators????

Ft.com: Anger at Darlings CGT rules dithering

The chancellor pledged to announce the final regime before Christmas. But Mr Darling on Thursday told MPs the quite complex nature of proposals from business groups to mitigate the impact of the tax rise meant it was desirable to have further discussions with those groups before I finalise my proposals.

Posted by techieman @ 09:45 AM 0 Comments

How to invest in Gold without physicals.....

Ft. com: Going for gold begins to look like a bright move

Ive cheated on this a bit. FOR INFO ONLY. For you gold bugs out there this article refers to 4 year warrants on gold (essentially call options). (in effect) You get 170% of the increase in the gold price at expiry, and have SOME downside protection too (if the price falls less than 30% at any time during the four years from the spot price of $764). It trades on the stock exchange and that means that the warrants can trade at a premium or discount to the underlying. No stamp duty, but stockbrokers fees apply. Caveat Emptor - bonne chance mes amies! If interested look at http://uk.warrants.com/services/quotes/details.php?code=SG43 Then under static data click the pricing supplement. As i said im not endorsing this -just thought it might be interesting.

Posted by techieman @ 09:41 AM 0 Comments

... and if you think problems are over, this is just the beginning

Guardian: Counting on trouble

"We do not yet know the full effects of this banking crisis. But they will be widespread. And they will affect all of us. I never thought I would see people removing money from a bank and taking it home for safe-keeping. This is extremely risky and yet that is what happened in the early days of Northern Rock. I'm sure there are more surprises to come."

Posted by confused76 @ 09:35 AM 2 Comments

No worries mate...it's only $49bn

BBC: Citigroup to take on $49bn debts

"US bank Citigroup plans to bring $49bn (24bn) in debt on to its balance sheet that did not previously appear there. By taking control of seven structured investment vehicles (SIVs), it hopes to help the funds pay off debts without having to have a fire sale of assets".

Posted by alan @ 08:59 AM 1 Comments

Funny how they are now lapping up the gloom...

Telegraph: House Price Confidence At Lowest Since 1998

House sales across the UK have tumbled at the fastest pace ever recorded by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, as price expectations plummet and buyer demand dries up.

Posted by sacred contracts @ 08:45 AM 0 Comments

oversupply and dwindling demand = price crash

times online: Flats surplus leaves outlook bleak

A thousand flats lie empty in Leeds and in some cases are being sold for 100,000 less than what was paid for them.

Posted by sold out @ 07:28 AM 2 Comments

Why a Burst UK Bubble is Serious

Financial Times: A stress-test for Britains economy

Martin Wolf: Does todays financial turbulence mark the end of the UKs economic miracle? Why, then, is the UK economy deemed particularly vulnerable by many observers? There seem to be six reasons: first, the UKs housing bubble is deemed bigger than that of the US; second, the UK is particularly dependent on finance and business services; third, the public sector is no longer in a position to increase employment rapidly; fourth, the size of the fiscal deficit makes it hard to counteract a severe downturn; fifth, in a housing downturn, the effectiveness of monetary easing might be limited; and, finally, the Bank of England is proving far too conservative.

Posted by hyrax @ 12:12 AM 0 Comments

Thursday, December 13, 2007

$830m drop!

Bloomberg: Lehman Earnings Drop 12% After Mortgage Writedown

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the largest U.S. underwriter of mortgage-backed bonds, said earnings fell for a second straight quarter and losses from the collapse of the subprime market will probably extend into next year. Fourth-quarter net income declined 12 percent to $886 million, the New York-based company said today in a statement. A drop in the value of mortgage-related securities and real-estate holdings cut revenue by $830 million.

Posted by alan @ 11:27 PM 0 Comments

Let us celebrate 4 months of house price "negative growth"

Fool: House Prices Keep On Falling

"Great news for would-be buyers everywhere. The latest housing market data reveals house prices are falling in all regions across the country. Even London, which experienced the strongest house price growth over the summer, has fallen into decline." AYYAYYA YYEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSS

Posted by confused76 @ 10:39 PM 5 Comments

BTL, leaches and scavengers

ResidentialLandlord: Renting on the rise as homeowners bail out of property market

Another sector the FSA should but fails to regulate: sell and rent back scavengers. "Britains obsession with home ownership is rapidly becoming a thing of the past as renting makes a comeback claims National Homebuyers. The company reports it has seen the Sell-and-Rent-Back part of its business double in the past year. Over half its customers are opting to rent the property they used to own rather than downsize." But if this is the drain BTL properties end up going down, I am very ha... ha... haaappy!

Posted by confused76 @ 08:41 PM 6 Comments

Bradford & Binge desperate turkey

FT: Buy-to-let landlords in upbeat mood

Jeremy Law, head of buy-to-let at Bradford and Bingley said: Over half of our landlords report that they have added to their portfolio this year, which is extremely encouraging, and indicates that the prospects for the sector remain positive in 2008. He said the social and demographic trends that had been driving the market remained strong, with rental demand robust." this is a desperate attempt by a company that is probably closer to call the cleaners in than we imagine

Posted by confused76 @ 08:35 PM 5 Comments

BOE worried that people think inflation is rising!!!! Do they never do the weekly food shopping?

Telegraph: UK inflation expectations soar to a record

BOE is worried that people expect inflation to rise. Well with milk, cheese, bread, petrol, gas and taxes going up just what did they expect!! I think the BOE should be forced to do the weekly food shopping! Anyway Gordon has a plan, you alwanted house prices to be in the CPI so now they are falling like a brick I bet he will build them in! Oh yes the artice also mentions the dreaded "R" word.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 07:38 PM 7 Comments

Does the UK economy need a Doctor

Citywire: Bolton expects bank 'cancer' to attack stockmarkets

Fidelity International's Anthony Bolton has drawn on more than 30 years investment experience to warn investors that contagion in the banking sector will seep into most stockmarkets. Boltons primary concern is whether the real world will be affected by the turmoil in financial markets.He fears that the combination of tightening credit, increasing pressure on consumer expenditure and falling property prices will have an impact on the economy.

Posted by jack c @ 07:37 PM 0 Comments

Will another $50bn perhaps save the day?

Citywire: Thursday Closing Market: FTSE crashes by 200 points on liquidity fears

The FTSE 100 suffered a torrid day falling over 195 points as yesterdays news that Central Banks would pump billions into the markets failed to dispel fears over a continuing credit crisis.The FTSE 100 closed down almost 3% at 6,364.20 again driven by weakness in the banking sector as all the major markets were hit by unease over whether the central banks strategy to pump liquidity into the market would be enough to stave off recession.

Posted by jack c @ 07:20 PM 1 Comments

Greenspan warns of loses and deflation..

Financial Post: Greenspan quotes Bank of Canada

Greenspan indicates there will have to be losses and deflation before things get better.

Posted by doomberger @ 07:01 PM 0 Comments

Festive gloom trapped in debt.

Guardian: Consumer credit crisis to deepen over Christmas

Its going to be a doom and gloom Christmas for many trapped in debt.

Posted by doomberger @ 06:56 PM 0 Comments

Inflation to give bank a headache.

Telegraph: UK inflation expectations soar to a record

UK inflation will be causing the BOE one very big headache as pumping money into the system makes no difference.

Posted by doomberger @ 06:51 PM 1 Comments

More borrowed money can't make up for careless lending

MoneyWeek: Can central banks stop the credit crunch?

Central banks have announced new plans to save the world from the subprime crisis, but more borrowed money won't make up for careless lending, says John Stepek...

Posted by mary @ 06:20 PM 1 Comments

let's party like it's 1999

Firstrung: House prices declined for the third consecutive month

Newly agreed sales decline at fastest pace since April 1999 - Market conditions loosest since October 2005. Price expectations lowest level since Oct 1998. Sentiment in the housing market deteriorated further in November, with the balance of surveyors turning the most negative since May 2005. For the three months to November, 40.6% more surveyors reported a fall in prices than a rise, compared to 23.4% reporting a decline in October. Falls in the price balance are being driven by weakening property demand, although supply, whilst still contracting, is not falling as quickly as in recent months

Posted by converted lurker @ 05:56 PM 2 Comments

A tale of a crash in 1993

New York Times, Nov 1993: Pyramid Scheme a trap for many Romanians

"Early investors got rich and spent on luxuries like washing machines, holidays etc. The scheme crashed. Speculation mounted that the govt printed money to keep scheme afloat, but inflation stopped them. The sudden gold rush of money had caused house prices to triple".... Voila!

Posted by a womble @ 05:23 PM 0 Comments

Landlords undaunted apparently

FT.com: Buy-to-let landlords in upbeat mood

Most buy-to-let landlords plan to increase their property portfolios or leave them untouched in 2008, according to a new study. Landlords seem to be undaunted by worries about the slowing housing market, with 86 per cent planning to increase their property portfolios or leave them untouched over the next six months. The study also finds that the average portfolio stands at 6.1 properties, up from an average of 5.7 just six months ago.

Posted by landedgentry @ 05:10 PM 0 Comments

More inflation Vicar ?

BBC News: US factory prices at 34-year high

US factory prices have risen at their highest rate in 34 years, raising inflation fears at a time of interest rate cuts to help the wider econom

Posted by mrmickey @ 04:56 PM 3 Comments

It's a stubborn Lending Logjam !

Bloomberg: Libor Stays at 7-Year High as Credit Squeeze Persists

"The interest rates banks charge each other for short-term loans remained close to the highest in seven years a day after central banks joined forces to end a lending logjam threatening the global economy. The cost to borrow for three months remained at 4.95 percent, the British Bankers' Association said today. That's 95 basis points, or 0.95 percentage point, more than the European Central Bank's benchmark interest rate, compared with 57 basis points a month ago".

Posted by alan @ 04:11 PM 0 Comments

Stunning opinion from Citizens Advice

Firstrung: Home ownership dream shattered by irresponsible sub prime mortgage lenders - CAB

The dream of home ownership has turned sour for many people on low incomes who have taken out mortgages or secured loans with sub-prime lenders only to end up deep in debt and facing the prospect of homelessness, according to a report from Citizens Advice..."The stark message of our report is that for many low income homeowners the risks have ultimately outweighed the benefits. Better protection must be put in place urgently if the dream of home ownership is not to turn into a nightmare of debt and homelessness for thousands more vulnerable people." - CAB

Posted by converted lurker @ 03:31 PM 2 Comments

Ho Ho Ho...or is it April 1st?

Firstrung: Buy to let returns improved in 2007 - Paragon

Returns generated by residential investment property in 2007 reached 21 per cent according to Paragon. This now marks a 28-month high, with the typical landlord generating more than 34,000 in rent over the last year. The average value of buy-to-let property has also been strong, rising by 15.3 per cent over the year. Yields have remained at 6 per cent or above throughout 2007 as landlords have been able to increase rents in line with property values.

Posted by converted lurker @ 03:28 PM 20 Comments

The slowdown in the UK housing market is deepening...

The FT: Housing market slowdown worsens

Price falls spreading across all regions of England and Wales. Expectations for property prices are at their lowest since 1998.

Posted by penny drop @ 02:45 PM 0 Comments

Great news!

FT: UK housing market slows still further

"The stock of unsold property on surveyors books increased by 8.7 per cent in November, market conditions were the loosest since October 2005. applicants offer considerably less than the asking price and many vendors have had to bite the bullet and accept,In Cobham one of the most expensive areas outside London reported a large number of fall-throughs while in West Yorkshire market had gone into hibernation for the winter. In Oxfordshire, said the results of the City bonus season could swing sentiment. If they are better than expected, this will help and the converse! Ho! ho! ho!

Posted by confused76 @ 02:10 PM 1 Comments

Northern Rock

Bloomberg: Northern Rock Names Kuipers as Chief, Takes Writedown

The total possible writedowns are 281m, or about two thirds the banks current market cap, which breaks down as follows: - a charge of 118m on SIVs, which were valued as of September 14 at 319m - a writedown of 32m on three SIV-lites, originally worth 35m - despite one of the vehicles being restructured into a cash CDO in early September: potential writedown of 131m on Northern Rocks CDO portfolio, marked to market from 167m to 36m at the end of November. " Get that? CDOs are worth 22% of face value. As for the SIVs, well basically the decimal point was in the wrong place." comment from FT markets live. Northern Rock has to hang everything out to dry, how many of these CDOs are being hiddenaway?

Posted by happyrenterz @ 01:12 PM 5 Comments

Schultz sees an apocalypse now

marketwatch: Schultz sees an apocalypse now

Harry Schultz advices go defensive. Risk of recession or even depression is great, dollar will sink more, many banks and lenders will collapse, so gold, Swiss Franks are the best. "A financial tsunami is upon us," he says...

Posted by assurbanipal @ 01:01 PM 2 Comments

Fed bailout doubts

CNN: Why the Fed bailout might not work

The Federal Reserve's latest move to make credit markets more liquid could deepen problems in the banking system and actually cause the markets to be even more illiquid.

Posted by happyrenterz @ 12:48 PM 1 Comments

''The Austrian View''...sounds familiar??

Wikipedia: Great Depression

Same thing all over again:- ''Another explanation [for the Great Depression] comes from the Austrian School of economics...the key cause of the Depression was the expansion of the money supply in the 1920s that lead to an unsustainable credit driven boom....in the Austrian view it was this inflation of the money supply that led to an unsustainable boom in both asset prices (stocks and bonds) and in capital goods. By the time the Fed belatedly tightened in 1928, it was far too late and, in the Austrian view, a depression was inevitable.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 12:41 PM 7 Comments

Mmmmm... Paulson scratches head...How about we try to pump in $100 trillion? It just might work, I'll get my cheque book...

Bloomberg: Euribor Stays at 7-Year High, Defying Central Banks

Interest rates on loans in euros stayed at a seven-year high, a day after global central banks teamed up in an attempt to thaw a freeze in money markets. ``It's not going to help us find an exit to this crisis,'' said Cyril Beuzit, head of interest-rate strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London. ``These measures aren't going to address the root cause of the crisis. Banks are still reluctant to lend money to each other because there are serious concerns about potential further bad news.''

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 12:24 PM 5 Comments

Get over it

MoneyWeek: It's time this house price obsession ended

A message to all the 'professional' housing market commentators: "shut up, go back to your miserable little City office, to your stack of statistics and your feeble forecasts. We dont need you. We dont want to hear from you. We can work out for ourselves what is happening in the real world."

Posted by mary @ 12:21 PM 11 Comments

Sorry no more rate cuts

Bloomberg: U.K. Inflation Expectations Reach Eight-Year High

Britons' inflation expectations rose to the highest in at least eight years in a Bank of England survey last month

Posted by mrmickey @ 11:49 AM 12 Comments

If people are greedy??

Davis thoughts: Loans/mortgages

Surely by now in the 21st century people shouldn't need reminding not to overstretch theit budget? I still only buy if I can afford it! I did not take out a full mortgage, in amount that COULD have been borrowed, but bought a smaller property secure in the knowledge that if mortgage rates rose I wouls still have some monetary leeway. If people are unable t o see that they cannot afford a mortgage or loan they are in serious trouble, whats the old saying, at the end of the month 1 penny in credit- good new for you, at the end of the month 1 penny in debt - good news for the bank!

Posted by matt d @ 11:44 AM 0 Comments

Foxtons May sell off "genius"

BBC 5 Live: Thurs Wake Up To Money

... from their ex managing directer now with Marsh & Parsons. Also, apparently we have to wait until the 2nd week in Jan to see if the market is in a "dip" or a downturn. Also, the ecomony is different from 89. No sh1t, it's much worse if you ask me. Great stuff this morning.

Posted by doomwatch @ 11:32 AM 5 Comments

Oh its Northern Rock all over again - but BIGGER!

Guardian: Stock markets open sharply lower

"Shares in London and the rest of Europe opened sharply lower this morning as traders attempted to assess the impact of yesterday's unprecedented 50bn money market support package from the world's central banks." Its all about confidence, and if the central banks are acting together to shore up confidence that's even more reason to worry!

Posted by sacred contracts @ 10:19 AM 0 Comments

Like a Junkie wanting his hit of smack!

BBC: UK welcomes world cash injection

Let us not forget that cheap money and over borrowing has got us all into this sorry mess; Gordon B has been welcomed up to $110bn (54bn) in loans will be made available to world money markets by central banks including the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve. I wonder how this is going to end?

Posted by paul @ 09:45 AM 0 Comments

Central Bank to the Rescue, views coming in

FT: Central bankers feeling their way in the dark

"The Fed stoked volatility by disappointing hopes of a big cut in the discount rate on Tuesday. ... So Tuesdays savage Wall Street sell-off could have been avoided." "They may well get the markets back into order. They may, in this way, rescue economies from the threat of recessions. But that is not the end of the story. The bigger the rescue has to be today, the more stringent regulation of financial institutons will have to be in future."

Posted by happyrenterz @ 09:42 AM 6 Comments

Vote if you haven't already!

thisismoney: poll: What will happen to house prices in 2008?

The results: (so far) Up by 11% or more - 8% Up by 6% to 10% - 10% Up by 1% to 5% - 17% Flat 0% change - 10% Fall by 1% to 5% - 13% Fall by 6% to 10% - 19% Fall by 11% or more - 23%

Posted by sacred contracts @ 09:42 AM 1 Comments

HBOS gets off lightly

BBC: HBOS in 180m credit crunch hit

HBOS, the UK's fourth-largest bank, has said it will make a 180m ($367.7m) write-down of assets as a result of the credit crunch.

Posted by alan @ 09:24 AM 5 Comments

RICS: worst results in 8 years

BBC 'News': House prices fall for fourth month in a row

House prices in the UK fell for the fourth month in a row in November, says RICS. Of the Chartered Surveyors questioned, 40.6% more reported a fall rather than a rise in house prices, up from a downwardly revised 23.4% in October. Unsold inventory meanwhile jumped another 8.7% following last month's rise of 9.7% - which means the ratio of completed sales compared to unsold property on the market fell to 33%

Posted by little professor @ 09:19 AM 11 Comments

There's a problem...........Let's make it worse!!!!

Guardian: Banks act on meltdown fear

Speaking to the Guardian, the chancellor, Alistair Darling, welcomed the move: "This was both necessary and very welcome. It sends a very clear signal across the world that central banks stand ready to do whatever is necessary." That's a quote that will come back to haunt him.

Posted by inbreda @ 09:13 AM 11 Comments

Good News

Guardian: House price falls are fastest in two years

House prices across the UK fell at their fastest rate in more than two years last month as higher interest rates and tighter controls on mortgage lending prevented many buyers from getting on the property ladder, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) says today.

Posted by quiet guy @ 08:14 AM 0 Comments

Down for a fourth month in a row

Reuters: House prices falling faster

RICS survey says that house prices fell at their fastest rate since May 2005. But RICS spokesman Jeremy Leaf said house prices were unlikely to fall sharply while the job market remained in good shape. Phew - that's a relief!

Posted by bricksnmortarhaha @ 08:02 AM 0 Comments

No stopping it

Thisismoney: Britain's own subprime crisis 'is underway'

"The CA study, Set up to Fail, found that dubious advice from brokers, irresponsible lending and an aggressive approach to those in arrears is driving an increase in court actions for repossession." says it all really

Posted by growler @ 07:39 AM 13 Comments

House price fall 'accelerating'

BBC News: House price fall 'accelerating'

House prices in the UK have fallen for the fourth month in a row, says the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics).

Posted by jmk @ 06:35 AM 0 Comments

RICS survey makes interesting read.

Guardian: House price falls are fastest in two years

House prices across the UK fell at their fastest rate in more than two years last month as higher interest rates and tighter controls on mortgage lending prevented many buyers from getting on the property ladder, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) says today. Its latest monthly report on the housing market says prices are expected to fall further. The attitude of surveyors appears gloomier than at any time since 1998. The figures for November compare the proportion of surveyors reporting a drop in prices with those who saw the market climb. The study shows 40.6% more surveyors reported a fall than a rise. In October, the gap was just 23.4%.

Posted by nmarks @ 04:15 AM 0 Comments

Its reassuring to know the MPC is independent. Not.

BBC News: Oil climbs on central bank plan

Oil prices rebounded on fresh hopes that the global economy could remain robust after unprecedented action taken by a number of key central banks. The plan to make available billions of dollars worth of loans to cash-strapped banks pushed a barrel of New York light crude up $4.37 to $94.39 a barrel.

Posted by nmarks @ 04:12 AM 0 Comments

House sales tumble to worst level in 8 years

The Times: House sales tumble to worst level in eight years

Sales of homes fell at their fastest pace for at least eight years last month, a key survey suggested yesterday. The number of newly agreed sales dropped for the fifth month in a row in November, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said. It is the sharpest decline since the survey began in 1999. The balance of surveyors reporting rising rather than falling prices tumbled to minus 40.6, compared with minus 23.4 the previous month, indicating that prices are falling at their fastest pace since May 2005.

Posted by eagle @ 12:05 AM 0 Comments

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Wow, what a suprise

Telegraph: Mortgage firms hit as repossession fears grow

The mortgage industry has turned the dream of owning your own home into a nightmare f or many low income borrowers, according to a damning new report published today by Citizens Advice.

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:29 PM 5 Comments

The giant game of Monopoly comes to an end

thisismoney: World banks in 50bn credit-crunch fight

"This is the first time government banks have worked together on such a grand scale and comes as a result of secret talks between all the major central bankers in the UK, the US and the eurozone, as well as in Canada and Switzerland." Erm, they are privately owned Banks !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:24 PM 13 Comments

London jobs face axe from US banks

London Evening Standard: London jobs face axe from US banks

The London headquarters of the big US investment banks are bracing for heavy job cuts as bosses seek savings so they can keep paying big bonuses to top performers.

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:18 PM 0 Comments

Short term the future is bleak.

cnn money: Greenspan the future of the markets

A video interview with Greenspan stating the bubble has to deflate.

Posted by doomberger @ 09:43 PM 0 Comments

The well has run dry!

The Financial Post: The Financial Post guide to what the central banks are trying to do

An explanation as to why the global banks are pumping money into the system! Yes well it dont take much figuring out! They banks have been lending recklessly, the estate agents have been hyping up prices and the banks have run out of money.

Posted by doomberger @ 09:17 PM 4 Comments

The bubble has to deflate.

cnn money: Greenspan: How the credit crisis happened

Greenspan indicates the markets will sort themselves out eventualy! Erm...yes they will eventually but the bubble has either to burst first or deflate over time. Now that could come quickly next year or it could go on for many years. But in the meantime throwing money into the markets is only a short term solution.

Posted by doomberger @ 09:04 PM 0 Comments

If inflation is such a risk, why have the BOE cut rates?

BBC News: Police to vote on right to strike

Prime Minister Gordon Brown told MPs the government had to ensure that pay settlements were affordable and consistent with wider pay policy. "I would like more than anybody to be able to say to the police that we could pay their wages and their salary rise in full. "But I have to say to them that no policeman and no person would thank us if their pay rise was wiped out by inflation," he said.

Posted by shipbuilder @ 08:46 PM 4 Comments

Olivant threat to pull out of Rock bid.

BBC: Rock suitor threatens ultimatum

The Banks all around the world in panic mode throwing money into the markets does not bode well as it smells of desperation. Olivant threaten to pull out of the Northern Rock is more bad news.

Posted by doomberger @ 08:10 PM 1 Comments

...mmm... I think London rentals are going to suffer, dragging the BTL market down

Times: Banks freeze recruitment as credit crisis bites

"Banks throughout the City have frozen recruitment for middle office jobs as the full force of multi-billion pound writedowns are felt. Over the past month there have been few or no new posts for risk analysts, financial controllers, audit and treasury experts, in banks such as Barclays Capital, Morgan Stanley, ABN Amro, Bank of America and Citi-group, City sources said."... and since for every new positions there are 2 head hunters, 3 support staff, a starbucks employee... well you can continue

Posted by confused76 @ 08:07 PM 0 Comments

This is the worst article ever! The Express Sucks.

Express: HOUSE PRICES SLOW BUT DONT PANIC

A healthy slowdown is one thing but unless the Bank takes decisive action, the current decline in the housing market could cause real economic pain WHAT!!!!!!!!?????????? And house prices at these levels aren't already!!!!!!!!

Posted by david20040_0 @ 06:21 PM 4 Comments

Oh god, here we go again....irrational exuberance!!!

Times Online: Bank gets more headroom for rate cuts

These people are bloody determined to stop that bubble from bursting..... ''Slower-than-expected wage increases and record job figures allow Bank of England more room to cut rates Pressure on the Bank of England to introduce a second cut in interest rates as early as next month increased today as official figures showed average earnings had increased at a slower than expected rate over the past three months.''

Posted by hpwatcher @ 05:22 PM 7 Comments

Emergency Aid for Money Markets

Telegraph Co Uk: Bank of England and Fed act to ease crisis

The Guv'n has bottled. All the Guv'ns have bottled. Goodbye prudence. Hello "Moral Hazard."

Posted by talking rot @ 05:10 PM 11 Comments

Must keep those bubbles inflated at all costs

Bloomberg: Fed, ECB, Central Banks Work to Ease Credit Crunch

The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and three other central banks moved in concert to alleviate a credit squeeze threatening global growth, in the biggest act of international economic cooperation since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Posted by mrmickey @ 05:04 PM 0 Comments

just as BOE+Fed etc give more cheap money in auctions

CNN: Subprime creep: From city to burbs

It is clear now, the light has popped up above their heads!!!..lol They think dishing out more money will help these people, now what is interesting is that people in this article are well educated and still getting into debt!! This just proves people cannot really afford the inflated houseprices, the same goes for the UK.. If they keep giving out more money this situation will fall into a world recession...

Posted by mark @ 05:02 PM 1 Comments

Keep that cheap credit going, can't stop...

BBC News: Central banks act on credit fears

The Federal Reserve are pooping their pants about a recession and have convinced a lot of other central banks to begin lending to each other again to make more credit available. A shred move but possible too late...

Posted by smugly @ 04:37 PM 0 Comments

Wachovia, B of A warn of more losses

Bloomberg: Bank of America Expects Profit to Be `Disappointing'

Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis said fourth-quarter earnings will be ``quite disappointing'' and credit markets ``will probably remain challenging into next year'' . Lewis told investors today at a conference in New York. Wachovia Corp., the fourth- largest U.S. bank, said today it may double fourth-quarter provisions for loan losses to $1 billion.

Posted by alan @ 04:26 PM 0 Comments

No!! This is not "Shock & Awe" - It's a bloody mess!

Bloomberg: Fed, ECB, Central Banks Work to Ease Credit Crunch (Update5)

``This is shock and awe,'' said Fred Goodwin, a fixed- income strategist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in London. ``The fact that it's coordinated means they have joined together in the war to attack the problem, which is that banks don't trust each other.

Posted by stevie dee @ 04:17 PM 0 Comments

Is the BofE sending us a message ???

google search: www.housepricerise.co.uk

anyone else tried this url.

Posted by hn @ 03:54 PM 4 Comments

More on this coordinated by the INDEPENDENT Central Banks - Don't Panic

Bloomberg: Fed, ECB, Central Banks Coordinate to Add Liquidity (Update3)

The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and three other central banks moved in concert to alleviate a credit squeeze that's threatening global economic growth, in the biggest act of international economic cooperation since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. I can't see this all lasting to long!!!!! Hope these guys have got their pampers on!!!

Posted by stevie dee @ 03:18 PM 0 Comments

Sorry guys, to make up for the 1/4 point cut yesterday - Now Stop Crying Boys

Yahoo - AP: Stocks Climb Sharply After Federal Reserve Unveils Plan to Work With Other Central Banks

Wall Street shot higher in early trading Wednesday after the Federal Reserve announced a plan to work with other central banks to alleviate a global credit crisis. The Dow Jones industrials surged more than 200 points. Investors upset by the Fed's quarter-point rate cut Tuesday were relieved by the central banks' commitment to help the economy weather the ongoing credit and mortgage crisis. The dollar fell against the euro and pound but rose versus the yen. Gold prices rose. (Gold certainly jumped this morning around 10 cents in a couple of hours). Guys, if you wanted any confirmation or justification to buy GOLD, here it is.

Posted by stevie dee @ 03:00 PM 0 Comments

Rate cuts aren't the solution

MoneyWeek: Why the Fed should be raising interest rates

The Federal Reserve has cut rates as expected, but falls in US stocks suggested investors wanted more. It's time they realised that rate cuts can't solve the market's problems, says John Stepek...

Posted by mary @ 02:25 PM 0 Comments

Miles for president!

Bberg: U.K. Home Prices May Fall 10% and It's No Bad Thing, Miles Says

``There's a gain for people about to trade up or first-time buyers, and that offsets the loss when house prices are falling,'' Miles, who advised the Treasury on the British property market, said in London yesterday. ``On balance, it's almost certainly redistributive to people who are younger and less well off.'' YEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSS

Posted by confused76 @ 02:14 PM 0 Comments

Property market: Word on the street

Telegraph: If you think things are bad now - just wait

Edmund Conway is Economics Editor of the Daily Telegraph At last, someone who knows what he is talking about!

Posted by wdbeast @ 01:43 PM 11 Comments

Sellers confidence in the market misplaced

home.co.uk: Asking Price Index

Decembers cut in interest rates by the Bank of England has served to increase home sellers confidence. A majority of sellers have opted not to cut their asking prices in the belief that the IR cut is just the first of several and that the market will soon recover from the current downturn. This wave of renewed confidence in the market, coupled with a continued surge in 3+ bedroom properties delayed by HIPs legislation, has resulted in a rise of 1.1% for the mix-adjusted average house price in England and Wales. However, sellers confidence in the market may be misplaced, since mortgage lenders, still in the midst of the credit crunch, have given no indication that they will relax their lending criteria over the coming months.

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:28 PM 5 Comments

Ripe for shorting ?

Yahoo Finance: GRAINGER (GRI.L)

"Working in the real estate sector since 1912, the group experienced its strongest period of growth after the Second World War, when it bought damaged and disused industrial property that it renovated to provide housing. And when we know the price of the average rent in London, it is not hard to understand how attractive this form of speculation can be.On the one hand, Grainger is a landlord, renting out property (housing and offices among others) while on the other hand it works as a property developer across the whole of Great Britain."

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:46 PM 1 Comments

Buy to let still alive.......

Home Move: Buy to Let lending remains bouyant

Err CML says Buy to let increased in October.... Comments please

Posted by maddison @ 10:53 AM 24 Comments

Housing shortage?

BBC: MoD paying for 8,000 empty homes

More than 8,200 homes rented by the Ministry of Defence for use by military families in England and Wales are unoccupied, the BBC has learned. Figures show 20% of married quarters are empty, but cost taxpayers 28.78m a year in rent paid to a housing company.

Posted by alan @ 10:13 AM 5 Comments

The Bull has Bolted - Reality Now Mainstream

Financial Times: Why the credit squeeze is a turning point for the world

More columnists are finally waking up to the fact the stable door has fallen off and the bears have moved in. Nice cartoon.

Posted by hyrax @ 09:44 AM 3 Comments

Something else for the BOE to consider!

Telegraph: Chinese inflation fuels crisis fears

China added to fears of a global double whammy of recession and rising prices yesterday when it reported consumer-price inflation jumped to 6.9 pc in November, the highest level for 11 years.

Posted by mike @ 09:21 AM 0 Comments

No surprises here!

BBC "News": Lenders 'at fault' on home loans

Citizens Advice has accused UK sub-prime lenders of knowingly giving mortgages to many poor borrowers who cannot afford them.

Posted by dave the box @ 08:36 AM 12 Comments

Even renting is getting more expensive...

Press Association: Homelessness warning over mortgages

[Stupid] people on low incomes are being encouraged to take out mortgages they cannot afford, leaving them deep in debt and facing the prospect of homelessness, a report has warned. Citizens Advice said dubious advice from brokers, irresponsible lending decisions and aggressive arrears management by sub-prime lenders was driving the current increase in arrears and repossessions. It said many lenders and brokers had failed to carry out basic checks to ensure that borrowers would be able to meet repayments.

Posted by little professor @ 08:03 AM 4 Comments

Doing a Dubya

Telegraph: Cameron urges lenders to ease loan rates

David Cameron has called on mortgage lenders to be lenient with homeowners, who face an average increase of 200 in their monthly repayments when their fixed term comes to an end. The Council of Mortgage Lenders said on Wednesday that mortgage payments as a percentage of income are already at their highest level since 1992, when interest rates were 10% and the housing sector was in a slump. Cameron urged banks to consider tapering the rise in interest rates to prevent arrears and repossessions.

Posted by little professor @ 07:54 AM 26 Comments

Ello, ello, ello - We need to pay our mortgages too!

BBC: Police call emergency pay summit

Oh yes, lovely-jubbly. An act of Parliament bans police officers from taking strike action because of the critical role they hold in society. But Jan Berry, chairwoman of the Police Federation of England and Wales, said its members would stand firm in their battle to have their pay rise backdated to September, like their colleagues in Scotland. She told the BBC: "The police service is united, police authorities are united, and a growing number of politicians are also saying that she's made the wrong decision. "Now it takes a big person to stand up and say 'I made a mistake'. And I really think Jacqui Smith should be doing that now."

Posted by stevie dee @ 07:26 AM 12 Comments

And this weeks nominations are, in alphabetical order...

BBC: Rock poised to drop from FTSE 100

Analysts expect seven firms in total to tumble from the FTSE 100 index, reflecting the magnitude of the credit crisis on London shares. Analysts observe that the last shake-up of the index of this magnitude occurred in September 2001 when eight companies, all technology or telecom firms, were knocked out of the key index after their values shrunk in the technology sell-off.

Posted by stevie dee @ 05:07 AM 0 Comments

Looks like it's starting

Daily Mail: Mortgage firms rush to repossess homes as families feel credit crunch

"Britain is facing its own sub-prime loan crisis as "aggressive" mortgage lenders rush to repossess thousands of properties, it is claimed today. "

Posted by tim c @ 05:04 AM 0 Comments

Britain is facing its own sub-prime loan crisis as

Daily Mail: Mortgage firms rush to repossess homes as families feel credit crunch

Mortgage firms rush to repossess homes as families feel credit crunch Britain is facing its own sub-prime loan crisis as "aggressive" mortgage lenders rush to repossess thousands of properties, it is claimed today

Posted by chris @ 04:13 AM 0 Comments

Crash or slump in 2008?

IHT: Britain's housing market hits the wall due to subprime crisis: crash or slump in 2008?

... Meanwhile, the Andersons are settling in to a two-bedroom rental apartment the same size as the one they sold. But they aren't bemoaning the lack of extra space they were planning to have already. "It doesn't feel like putting our life on hold," said Dave Anderson. "There's the opportunity to potentially pick up a really nice house for 20 percent or 30 percent less that's much better for us in the long term."

Posted by confused76 @ 12:42 AM 5 Comments

Krusty, a canoe and Panama

Tgraph: Can we blame it all on Kirstie Allsopp?

Whatever happens to the Darwins, there are many other ordinary people who, like them, have put their faith in the property market as a way to make their fortune and are now worried about what the future holds for them.Yet for some time now, the profile of credit-crazed Britain, where easy money oozes through the cracks of our society, has encouraged this behaviour. More and more people behave as if they have some weird, inalienable right to be rich.

Posted by confused76 @ 12:31 AM 10 Comments

Fed slashes rates, but not as much as hoped

BBC News: US rates reduced for third time

The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates from 4.5% to 4.25% in a bid to help the world's largest economy through a housing and credit woes. The committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully. - Yes, it will monitor inflation carefully to ensure it is being fiddled as much as possible!

Posted by drewster @ 12:16 AM 1 Comments

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

the Citizens Advice Bureau said that irresponsible lending decisions and aggressive arrears management by sub-prime lenders was causing increasing numbers of homeowners with credit problems to miss mortgage payments or to have their homes repossessed.

The Times: Lenders come under attack for irresponsible mortgage policies

One in five people who sought advice on mortgage or loan arrears from Citizens Advice relied on means-tested benefits, while a third had household incomes below the UK poverty line. A childless couple with a weekly income of 217 would be on the poverty line. Tenants encouraged to buy their council flat under the right-to-buy scheme were particularly vulnerable to rogue brokers and bad lending decisions.

Posted by eagle @ 11:41 PM 0 Comments

Managers behind technology funds seduced investors at exactly the wrong moment in 2000, property funds seem to have been guilty of the same "unfortunate" timing in 2006 and 2007.

The Times: Property being shaken to the foundations

Property funds are shaping up as the next big asset class to trip up small investors, tarnish the reputation of the investment industry and challenge regulators. Just as the managers behind technology funds seduced investors at exactly the wrong moment in 2000, property funds seem to have been guilty of the same unfortunate timing in 2006 and 2007. The losses from office blocks and shopping centres are never going to be anything like as extreme as the wipe-outs from dot-coms but on paper investors who bought at the top are already looking at ugly losses that could get uglier. New Star Asset Management has just wiped 150 million from the value of its 1.7 billion UK Property unit trust, a second big devaluation. Its units have sunk by 18 per cent since July.

Posted by eagle @ 11:35 PM 0 Comments

Signs of the coming recession are everywhere

Independent: Charities feel the pinch as donations drop

Britons this year gave 200m less to good causes than in 2006, sparking concern that charities will have to cut their budgets in the face of decreasing donations from a falling number of donors. An annual report on how much people in Britain give to charity has revealed for the first time a significant drop in the numbers prepared to put their hands in their pockets, causing a 3 per cent fall in donations to 9.5bn. The largest drops in giving came from people aged between 25 and 44.

Posted by uncle chris @ 10:54 PM 0 Comments

Looks like the BoE really have their fingers on the pulse - NOT

Telegraph: Food prices rising at highest rate for 14 years

Food prices are accelerating at their highest rate for 14 years - and running at more than three times the rate of inflation, official figures show. Increasing wheat and dairy prices mean food factories are having to pay 6.6 per cent more for their raw ingredients than a year ago - the highest annual rise since 1993, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Posted by uncle chris @ 10:49 PM 0 Comments

Beleaguered! WTF?!? Seeing your money tripling in a decade is hardly beleaguered - I give up!

Guardian: Cameron seeks help for beleaguered homeowners

Conservative leader David Cameron today urged lenders to help homeowners struggling with rising mortgage repayments. Around 1.4 million people will see their cheap fixed-rate mortgage deals end next year, and could face sharp increases in mortgage costs. But a rise of 200 a month could be the "final straw" for many homeowners, said Cameron. He suggested banks stagger interest rate rises, as well as offer better advice about payment options to beleaguered borrowers. For example, switching some to interest-only loans, he said.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:20 PM 5 Comments

104 page report

Trader view: Gold is money and nothing else

Thesis: The biggest credit bubble in modern history is showing signs of unravelling in the US. Debt/credit expansion brings forward consumption it must either be purged in a deflationary recession, or inflated away through currency debasement. Gold wins in either scenario and is the go to asset along with basic commodities, like food and energy.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:49 PM 2 Comments

FLASHBACK: before the media campaign bullied the MPC

Sky News: Soaring fuel prices drive up inflation

November 13 2007: Rocketing petrol costs have driven inflation back above the Bank of England's 2% target - all but ending hopes of an interest rate cut this year. CPI rose from 1.8% to 2.1 % in October, much more than economists had been predicting.

Posted by little professor @ 07:47 PM 3 Comments

The Fed did it again

BBC News: US rates reduced for third time

It is amazing how one asset class can so dominate all others ! "The reduction, the first in four years, was aimed at easing the pain in the housing market and limiting the impact of the credit crunch"

Posted by sirgoogle @ 07:47 PM 0 Comments

Let the Red Revolution Begin with the Banks!!!

Guardian: Business News

Best thing for this busted flush really!

Posted by orwell @ 06:07 PM 0 Comments

Another jolt for Ben

BBC: Freddie Mac sees $12bn credit hit

Freddie Mac, the company that provides financing to US mortgage lenders, has become the latest firm to admit to higher losses in the sub-prime crisis. It now expects $10bn (4.89bn) to $12bn in credit losses on its mortgage book, its chief executive told investors.

Posted by alan @ 05:43 PM 0 Comments

There are wide expectations that values will move up towards spring, 2008, because the market in Liverpool is still under-valued.

DailyPost: Is the citys flats market at saturation point?

"city centre apartment in Liverpool sold for a knock-down price fetching half of what it cost three years ago" Daily Post reported in April that up to 35% of city centre flats were currently unoccupied" Liverpool has seen increasing numbers of empty properties purchased as buy to leave while waiting lists and homelessness have increased"

Posted by confused76 @ 04:54 PM 13 Comments

Across the pond: retail skid row

CNN: Holiday shopping hits the skids

After getting off to a fast start last month, holiday sales at some of the nation's largest retailers have slowed to an excruciatingly slow pace and mall traffic has dropped dramatically.

Posted by smc @ 04:32 PM 0 Comments

Remember this crisis was created by deliberate policy decisions from the Bank of England

Telegraph: Market fears that Bank has 'lost control'

Haven't we been warning of this scenario for a year or so? Or is this now another unforeseen set of circumstances?

Posted by paul @ 03:08 PM 11 Comments

Sky News Money Panel: Is this a joke ?

Sky News: Gary McCausland, Property Expert: HOLD

This is the man who said on BBC 5 live that property was "inelastic", and he's on the Sky News Money Panel !!!!!!!! What a joke. Still I'm sure his new book, How to "Make a Million from Property", which will be published early 2008 will sell well. Great timing Gary.

Posted by doomwatch @ 03:03 PM 3 Comments

A chasm between what buyers want to pay and what sellers want to sell

Property Week: 'Lack of pragmatism' sees Savills sale suffer

Those people who were pragmatic succeeded in selling, but for those who had expectations above the market, people werent even undertaking due diligence on the lots, Cannon said. We also had one client who decided to raise the reserve price on eight lots that we were selling for them, without any evidence that the market was there for the change, so we decided to withdraw them, as we cant be seen to misrepresent prices. That had a big effect, as if they had been included at the original guide price I think we would have sold all of them, he said.

Posted by andrew bird @ 02:32 PM 0 Comments

Sole goal of US mortage freeze

San Francisco Chronicle: Mortage Meltdown Interest rate 'freeze' - the real story is fraud

The sole goal of the US mortgage freeze is NOT to keep families in their homes but to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks and forcing them to buy back worthless mortgage securities at face value - right now almost 10 times their market worth. Similar articles can be seen on patrick.net

Posted by a saver @ 02:25 PM 1 Comments

Pundits are capitulating... we are heading for a crash!

ThisIsMoney: Mortgages most expensive for 16 years

'There is undeniably a very real - and growing danger - that the housing market could see a sharp correction next year. Probably the biggest risk is that the economy slows sharply over the coming months and unemployment starts rising significantly. 'This would be liable to lead to a marked increase in the number of people having to sell for distressed reasons, particularly given the extent to which many households have had to stretch themselves to the limit to buy a house.'

Posted by confused76 @ 01:58 PM 5 Comments

But Mark Twain eventually died

LandlordExpert: Young Index of Property Investment Market Sentiment

If you take out the spin, the report is quite damning: 12 mo price outlook, London: 39% expect rise, 43% static, 19% fall (that is 62% can't find a reason to invest!!). Outside London: 3% expect rise, 33% static, 64% fall. Purchase Expectations (12 mo) London 46% do not want to buy (a large proportion of the 62% that see no price movements). Outside London 90% BTLetters do not want more properties (ahain a large proportion of the 97% that can see no price rises). I tell you again, this is a damning report for the BTL sector....UAHHAH AHHAHHAH AHHAHHA HHAHAH HAHA

Posted by confused76 @ 01:29 PM 3 Comments

Did central banks ever have control in the first place?

Safe Haven: Losing Control Of Monetary Policy

"The Fed and BOE easing actions simply are not working to restore faith in the credit markets. Credit conditions based on LIBOR are worse now than in the August and November stock market swoons. Banks remain reluctant to lend to one another in spite of central bank efforts to provide liquidity. Neither central bank appears to be in control of anything at the moment. Of course it was only an illusion that made it seem like central bankers ever were in control in the first place."

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:28 PM 4 Comments

Bolt-on King says: flat, steady, stable, zero growth, supply, demand, single, households, HIPs, London-and-the-SouthEast, Rate-cuts

Firstrung: UK house prices to show zero growth in 2008 - NAEA

"The market as a whole is clearly not as strong now as it has been over the past seven years and this is down to a combination of factors. While we expect to see a much more subdued picture in 2008, the underlying strengths remain the same and we are hopefully that these will help the market to weather adversity over the coming year." Laugh, laugh, laugh

Posted by confused76 @ 01:09 PM 6 Comments

Got Gold?

Safe Haven: Nuclear Bond Implosion Ahead

The US Fed's measure for long term inflationary expectations may keep it from dropping rates much further, potentially setting off a 'nuclear' bond-price implosion.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:37 PM 5 Comments

No part of the global system will be immune

The Telegraph: Decade of Debt delusion is ending

"People are going to start feeling much poorer soon, as equity markets fail to perform and incomes feel the pinch of inflation. What we haven't seen is a proper unwinding of the leverage built up, certainly over the past four or five years. When asset prices are ballooning leverage is a wonderful thing, super-powering returns, as witnessed in the UK housing market. But when prices start to fall that leverage acts in a savage downward spiral, wiping out gains on investments that prove as flimsy as the thesis they were based upon."

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:44 AM 0 Comments

The Council for Mortgage Lenders (CML) Report

First-time mortgage repayments hit 16-year high: Times Online

Mortgage repayments reached their highest levels since 1991 in October, leaving first-time buyers paying out more of their salary to get on the property ladder.

Posted by peter @ 11:31 AM 0 Comments

FTBs they're disappearing....and fast

Firstrung: First time buyers paying highest level of mortgage interest since 1992

here was a move away from fixed-rate mortgages in October, with levels of new fixed-rate loans falling to 68% from 72% in September. Fixed-rate loans have been popular throughout 2007 with levels consistently at or above 70%. But the trend towards variable rate loans may increase in coming months as the expectation of further interest rate cuts lessens the need for borrowers to lock in and guard against rate rises...

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:28 AM 10 Comments

Bye Bye Homebuy?

Firstrung: First time buyer mortgage products 'canned' by Advantage

Advantage has ended its Open Market HomeBuy and Flexishare products. The news comes after Yorkshire recently brought a new HomeBuy product to the market, offering a 32.5% equity loan made up of a 17.5% government contribution and 15% lender contribution... Advantage's HomeBuy product had a 25% equity loan made up of equal 12.5% government and lender contributions. The only remaining lenders in the scheme are Halifax and Nationwide, the government will be deciding on the products that it will continue to support when the pilot scheme ends in April next year.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:26 AM 2 Comments

Big Apple feel the squeeze

Manhattan finally feels the property squeeze of Americas credit crunch: Times Online

It has gripped almost the entire United States, from Des Moines, Iowa, to Daytona Beach, Florida, but only now is the slump in Americas residential property market reaching the very top of the tree Manhattan.

Posted by peter @ 11:13 AM 1 Comments

US sub-prime mortgage investments shook the City, again

Times Online: Fears of further writedowns chill the City

Fears of further multibillion-dollar writedowns from US sub-prime mortgage investments shook the City yesterday, as UBS took an additional $10 billion (4.9 billion) hit and analysts said that November had been the worst month yet for banks.

Posted by peter @ 11:05 AM 1 Comments

Lloyds TSB: Higher-than-expected hit

Times Online: Crunch hands Lloyds TSB 201m writedown

Lloyds TSB said that it was taking a higher-than-expected 201 million hit from the credit crunch, as it laid bare the extent of its exposure to highly structured investment markets.

Posted by peter @ 11:02 AM 0 Comments

This will further undermine the UK housing market

Times online: Consumer pain looms with banks to hike credit cost

Millions of people are set for their biggest ever financial hangover in the new year as the squeeze on money markets hits households across Brtitain. City analysts gave warning that the last three weeks of November were the worst on record in the credit market as banks refused to lend each other money. Experts predict that this anxiety will be passed on to consumers next month in the form of steep rises in borrowing charges. For the first time in a long while consumers are going to get a real shock. Thirty years ago you had to queue for a mortgage. But, in the last 15 years, you have been able to snap your fingers and get credit. That is all going to change.There are fears that the credit crunch will have a devastating effect on some families which are already deep in debt. Nearly 5 mill

Posted by jack c @ 10:42 AM 0 Comments

Have you got gold?

The Telegraph: Morgan Stanley issues full US recession alert

"We think overall housing starts will run below one million units in each of the next two years -- a level not seen in the history of the modern data since 1959," he said.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:37 AM 1 Comments

Entschuldigen Sie mich - Ich bin ein Englander - Allez Klaar

BBC: German exports surge despite euro

Well, at least this is comforting news. Personally always being a euro sceptic, I can see us merged into the EU, with our "hands-tied, gagged, and with a token hood provided "(which now would not be a bad thing). New Labour will have us all entering this Union with a begging bowl and a cardboard box (maybe this was the plan all along as us Brits are a stubborn lot). Anway, as they say, "safety in numbers".

Posted by stevie dee @ 09:56 AM 2 Comments

How much longer before the China effect goes into reverse?

Reuters: China's consumer inflation blazes to 11-year high

Hmm, I'd imagine this is going to crop up in our basket of goods sooner or later

Posted by surfgatinho @ 09:47 AM 2 Comments

It is still spreading...

Guardian: Commercial property fund loses 150m

New Star Asset Management yesterday wrote nearly 150m off the value of its 1.7bn UK Property unit trust in the latest sign of a gathering crisis among commercial property funds.

Posted by inbreda @ 09:36 AM 0 Comments

Prices of flats and terraced houses are DOWN DOWN DOWN

ThisIsMoney: House price slowdown continues

The Government figures showed the average price of a flat falling by 0.7% during October. Terrace houses values fall by 0.4%, but detached homes saw a 0.8% rise in prices. But do not worry: 'We believe that the downside for house prices will be limited by a lack of supply, the increasing number of households, high employment and the fact that few vendors are currently having to sell for 'distressed' reasons.' Otherwise, the DCLG report is pure genius: "Northern Ireland at 32.5% still has the strongest year-on-year growth in the UK" What a positive spin!

Posted by confused76 @ 09:09 AM 0 Comments

Hopes are hurt! But whose hopes?? Not mine

Times: Hopes of more rate cuts from Bank hurt by rise in factory-gate inflation

In a more encouraging indicator for the Bank, output prices apart from food and energy were subdued. Core output price inflation, which excludes food, drink, tobacco and petrol, softened to 2.2 per cent in November from 2.3 per cent the month before. Seema Shah, of Capital Economics, said: With the housing market outlook darkening, it is simply a matter of time before the CLG house price data also show evidence that the housing market correction is under way.

Posted by confused76 @ 08:57 AM 0 Comments

More certain than a Ukrainian scoring from 6 yards in front of an open goal?

FT: Abramovich agrees Highland Gold deal

Not exactly a huge investment by Mr Chelski but interesting nonetheless.....

Posted by techieman @ 08:54 AM 0 Comments

Yet the BoE CUTS rates!

Telegraph: Food prices rising at highest rate for 14 years

Yesterday the media reported factory output prices were high and rising. Today food prices are high and rising. So why is the CPI soooooo low then? I think it is about time pressure was put on the Government to review the use of the CPI as the measure of inflation used by the BoE.

Posted by talking rot @ 07:08 AM 10 Comments

Another depressing American story

CFO Magazine: Employees Raiding 401(k)s, CFOs Say

"The economic slump will cut into employee bonuses, new survey results show, even as many workers are already taking hardship withdrawals from their retirement funds." This is an indicator of our future.

Posted by quiet guy @ 03:11 AM 0 Comments

All your assets are belong to us!

Telegraph: Sovereign funds scoop up crisis victims

The endgame; what happens when the bankrupt Western World owns up to its debts.

Posted by quiet guy @ 02:07 AM 2 Comments

Write down the value of its home lending unit by $1.6 billion in the fourth quarte

bloomberg.com: Washington Mutual to Take Writedown, Slash Dividend

Washington Mutual Inc., the biggest U.S. savings and loan, will write down the value of its home lending unit by $1.6 billion in the fourth quarter and cut about 6 percent of its workforce as mortgage-market losses increase.

Posted by chris @ 02:05 AM 0 Comments

Election 1997 - The Summer of Gullibility (Part 2)

Youtube: The Labour Party Celebrates - Election 1997

Prophetic words by David Dimbleby "Incompetent Champaigne Socialists"

Posted by stevie dee @ 12:03 AM 0 Comments

Memories - 1997 - The Summer of Gullibility (Part 1)

BBC: Tony Blair Addresses Labour Supporters - Election 1997

Blair saying "British people have put their trust in us!" "We have been elected as New Labour and we will govern like New Labour". They certainly weren't kidding!! History eh!

Posted by stevie dee @ 12:00 AM 0 Comments

Monday, December 10, 2007

Liz, since you asked, it is YOU, Gordon and the BTL b@stards that are to blame for your situation. The nice thing is YOU ARE BEYOND HELP (laughter, laughter, laughter)

ThisWasLizMoney: 'Yes, I'm a subprime borrower'

"But, hang on a minute. Is it fair that I (so many of us?) should be punished for wanting a roof over our heads and an alternative to a pension? I am fed up with homeowners taking the brunt. Yes, my London house made me 500,000 in 18 months" SHUT UP I@IOT!! Monkeys too learn from their mistakes. Liz you are totally beyond help! You are less than a monkey.

Posted by confused76 @ 11:30 PM 16 Comments

Another ingredient for the inevitable fall in prices.

Times Online: Consumer pain looms with banks to hike credit cost

Millions of people are set for their biggest ever financial hangover in the new year as the squeeze on money markets hits households across Brtitain.

Posted by garyb @ 11:12 PM 0 Comments

Nobody panic. George W Bush is on the case!

BBC News: Phone confusion after Bush error

"I have a message for every homeowner worried about rising mortgage payments: the best you can do for your family is to call 1-800-995-HOPE," he said. But those who went in search of hope got a busy signal - the president had given them the wrong number. The number Bush gave was for the Freedom Christian Academy in Texas.

Posted by tick tock @ 08:48 PM 5 Comments

House prices will plummet if Brown insists on building millions of homes

This is London: House prices will plummet if Brown insists on building millions of homes, says leading economist

"Prof Bernhofen said much of the spectacular rise in house prices in recent years had been driven by investors seeking to increase their assets. That means now, with the credit crunch, fewer people will buy to let, buy to renovate and sell or buy with a view to waiting for appreciation and moving on." So where is the supply shortage? Where is that prize i@iot of Professor Nickel? Where is Yvette Copper?

Posted by confused76 @ 02:43 PM 49 Comments

Interest Rates... Someone trying to understand where we are rather than another deluded forecast

FT: Shockwave from credit crisis continues to spread

We now have abundant evidence that the crisis is affecting the real economy. So we need to switch our attention from the travails of the banks and look instead at their customers. Which of them are getting hit?.. US mortgage borrowers are suffering and their UK counterparts will be shortly. But in the eurozone, consumers are less heavily indebted. And credit creation in the eurozone, on the latest October figures, is still showing strong double-digit growth. Hence the fact that the European Central Bank did not cut interest rates last week. It saw no need.

Posted by happyrenterz @ 01:54 PM 1 Comments

UK Fuel Protests Set For 15 December

Transaction.com: Urgent News Statement

Back from the crypt again to haunt New Labour . . . admittedly, no direct relevance to the housing markets, but bound to reflect on government handling of fuel prices - its competence in general - and on consumer confidence pre Christmas. The protests are promised to be strictly 'legal' - whatever that actually allows these days.

Posted by lierbag @ 01:29 PM 13 Comments

Decoupling dies lonely death. Now Take the Monoline to Global Depression

Daily Telegraph: Decoupling dies as half the globe hits crunch

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard doesn't see the cavalry arriving to save us. Meanwhile he asks "Who will insure the global insurers?"

Posted by fofp @ 01:28 PM 3 Comments

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Lehman Brothers, have all begun to tear up the "decoupling" manual

The Telegraph: Decoupling dies as half the globe hits crunch

The rising economies of Asia are too small and deformed to rescue world growth as America, Britain, Australia, and Club Med face their day of debt reckoning. China may make matters worse, not better.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:28 PM 8 Comments

Those who live by the global economy also die by it.

FT.COM: The vulnerable UK

"If there is a marked global downturn, led by falls in property and other asset markets, then the UK will suffer disproportionately. That may be true even if commodities and emerging markets are resilient."

Posted by soldinjune @ 01:13 PM 1 Comments

Decoupling dies as half the globe hits crunch

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/12/10/bcnambrose11.xml: Decoupling dies as half the globe hits crunch

The rising economies of Asia are too small and deformed to rescue world growth as America, Britain, Australia, and Club Med face their day of debt reckoning. China may make matters worse, not better.The seven pillars of global demand over the last year -- measured by current account deficits -- have been the United States ($793bn), Spain ($126bn), Britain ($87bn), Australian ($50bn) Italy ($48bn), Greece ($42bn), and Turkey ($34bn). Most are facing a housing bust. All are in trouble

Posted by chris @ 12:51 PM 0 Comments

House prices will plummet if Brown insists on building millions of homes, says leading economist

Daily Mail: House prices will plummet if Brown insists on building millions of homes, says leading economist

"Gordon Brown risks sending house prices into crisis if he insists on building millions more homes in Britain, a leading economist warned today."

Posted by becky @ 12:42 PM 0 Comments

The cut that won't cut it

Times: Banks interest rate reductions just wont cut it this time

"The last time that the economy faced a serious threat, at the turn of the decade, the Banks response was to pump up consumer demand with cheap money cutting base rates all the way to 3.5 per cent. The Bank knew well that this risked a build-up of excessive personal debt, but it argued rightly that the alternative was a painful downturn. Yet now the same pragmatic strategy seems unlikely to work again. Households have already taken on a 1.4 trillion debt mountain, and have been spending almost all of their disposable income. In meaner times, and with house prices sliding, it seems improbable that many will be so reckless as just to carry on as before."

Posted by confused76 @ 12:17 PM 2 Comments

Crisis in commercial property

MoneyWeek: The crisis in the other property market

Commercial property funds have been among the top choices for retail investors. But now that prices are falling, a lot of inexperienced investors could be hit hard. And thats lending an air of panic to the sector

Posted by mary @ 11:43 AM 2 Comments

Ha bloody Ha!

Yahoo Finance: Will the housing market crash?

"I expect property prices to rise by around 5% next year, due to the strong fundamentals of undersupply and falling interest rates. The Government forecasts that 4.4 million more people will be living in the UK by 2016, and house builders will not be able to supply enough property to meet that demand, defending robust house prices and even driving them up further."

Posted by soldinjune @ 11:34 AM 9 Comments

Well, well........

BBC News: UK factory gate prices see jump

Price inflation of goods leaving UK factories has reached its highest rate in 16 years, official figures show.

Posted by wiltshire @ 10:18 AM 21 Comments

Wonder who will pay for this?

Guardian: Rock shares face further hits on ejection from FTSE 100

Northern Rock this week faces a mass sell-off by shareholders if as expected the stricken bank is ejected from the list of top 100 companies on Wednesday. FTSE tracker funds, led by Legal & General, will sell their holdings in the Rock when it stops being a member of the FTSE 100. It is estimated almost 10% of the bank is owned by passive tracker funds that have remained invested in the bank despite its value falling from more than 5bn to about 430m this year.

Posted by inbreda @ 09:20 AM 1 Comments

More to come

guardian: UBS writes off further $10bn on US sub-prime losses

UBS, the Swiss banking group, today confirmed the worst fears of investors by writing off a further $10bn (4.9bn) on US sub-prime losses and reversing previous guidance by admitting it faced a full-year loss. It wrote off $3.4bn in the third quarter.

Posted by inbreda @ 09:19 AM 0 Comments

Where next for Libor rates?

BBC News: UBS posts fresh $10bn write-down

"The firm said that the hit meant it may now make an overall loss in 2007" Previously the bank was saying it would make a loss in the quarter. This is supposed to be one of the world's most conservative banks. Has it revealed such losses relatively early because its audit systems are stronger than others? With the bank saying there could be more to come, there will be a witch hunt for other losses elsewhere in less respected banks. Where will Libor rates go? One thing for sure, they will not be following BOE rate cuts.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 07:38 AM 5 Comments

When Mortgages Buy the Farm

One Magazine: When Mortgages Buy the Farm

Following the money. Why are US mortgages crashing? How did we get here? What's a CDO? Why are financial articles written in Klingon? The whole mess is explained in down-to-earth language.

Posted by fofp @ 05:13 AM 2 Comments

Sunday, December 9, 2007

Iran could reach nuclear goal in a year

ft.com: distinguished physicists and nuclear weapons experts say Iran is speeding up its nuclear programme and could develop enough material for a bomb well ahead of the 2010-2015 period estimated by western intelligence agencies

Several distinguished physicists and nuclear weapons experts say Iran is speeding up its nuclear programme and could develop enough material for a bomb well ahead of the 2010-2015 period estimated by western intelligence agencies. Speaking to the Financial Times, the experts said that information contained in this weeks International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran made the US and European estimates of Tehrans nuclear capacity look ever more out of date.

Posted by chris @ 11:58 PM 10 Comments

The board of Swiss bank UBS AG (is holding an unscheduled meeting this weekend

marketwatch.com: UBS announce more sizable writedowns on its subprime mortgage exposure as early as Monday

Many analysts estimate that the bank may be forced to take another big writedown on these assets, amounting to CHF8 billion-CHF10 billion. UBS said earlier that it expects additional subprime writedowns in the fourth quarter, leading to a net loss in the investment banking division, but that it expects the bank to be profitable overall in the last quarter of the year.

Posted by chris @ 11:00 PM 0 Comments

"An orgy of landlords, estate agents and desperate first-time buyers"... this is what we are

FT: The UK economy is vulnerable

"In a world full of house price inflation, Britains boom has been extreme: an orgy of landlords, estate agents and desperate first-time buyers. A crash would cause pain for those who build houses, sell houses, and lend money against the security of houses. Tenants would profit from cheaper houses even as the owners of buy-to-let portfolios lose, but damage to the financial system would probably cause a hit to consumption."

Posted by confused76 @ 10:46 PM 4 Comments

Only a prize i@iot can think this is good for the UK

Times: UK consumer spending to suffer as reset shock hits homeowners

"According to another analysis by Fathom Consulting, Britain runs a high risk of stagflation weak growth and high inflation next year. It calculates the probability of UK growth of less than 1% in 2008 at 35%." "Following the decision by the Bank of Englands monetary policy committee to cut Bank rate from 5.75% to 5.5% on Thursday, analysts are convinced further reductions are in the pipeline, despite inflation worries that are likely to be confirmed by official producer price data tomorrow."

Posted by confused76 @ 10:40 PM 1 Comments

Euro'll do nicely! - Get ready for the switch!

The Economist: The falling dollar: Losing faith in the Greenback

The fear that the dollar could be swiftly supplanted as top dog is based on the idea that one currency will always have a near-monopoly: if everyone holds dollars chiefly because everyone else does, you could imagine how a falling share of global reserves might reach a point when central banks all suddenly switch to a new currency standard.

Posted by stevie dee @ 08:17 PM 4 Comments

Lowering interest rates probably won't avert crisis

Fool guide: Most Homeowners Won't Get a Rate Cut

Thursday's rate cut is only the first step on what will undoubtedly be a long, hard road to tackling the UK's addiction to credit. For borrowers to feel real relief, two or three more base-rate cuts will be required. However, this would weaken the pound and place upward pressure on inflation, which the Bank of England wants to avoid. Truly, the Bank is caught between a rock and a hard place -- and the foremost losers will be British businesses and consumers.

Posted by hawkeyes @ 08:14 PM 0 Comments

Vince has known the score for a while, but only now people are listening ...

BBC Sunday AM: Cable shows fibre

VINCE CABLE: I think we are. And the government's argument is that this is all some unfortunate accident. It's blown in from the United States. I don't believe that. I mean I've been arguing for two or three years now in the House of Commons and Gordon Brown's always refuted this argument, that the British economy is very seriously unstable. Because what's been happening is households have been building up enormous personal debt, it's unprecedented historically and by comparison by other rich countries this debt is secured against house prices which are massively inflated. And at some point all of this was going to come unstuck. And it is now beginning to come unstuck.

Posted by doomwatch @ 07:53 PM 6 Comments

Interesting bet

The Times: Property mogul bets on house price rise

NICK LESLAU, one of Britains best-known private property entrepreneurs, is taking a 234m bet that house prices will rise over the next 10 years.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 04:47 PM 15 Comments

Spending Tax Payers Money to Keep them in Power

BBC News: Doubts cast on Northern Rock sale

"The amount of money being sunk in [Northern Rock] is absolutely staggering. There is no end to it." Northern Rock has become a furness into which the government is pouring our money. No wonder the pound is at an all time low against the euro. And why are they doing this. Because they know they can kiss good buy to power if it was allowed (as should have happened months ago) to go into administration. Let us not forget, the main winners in this are all those Investment Banks who are having their loans bailed out by the government before the whole financial catastophy finally explodes.

Posted by tippingpoint @ 02:26 PM 3 Comments

Hard to predict the effect of the cut... what I know is that BTLers are losing money in London

Firstrung: London house prices fall by 22K since August

... and will that change? I do not think so, if you know about layoffs and bonus cuts in the City. It seems that the rental market is being affected big way and that is bad news for BTLs too. Also see one of the best pics used by Firstrung.

Posted by confused76 @ 01:17 PM 6 Comments

Lies and Statistics - Monthly Figures a Crude Measure Apparently

Times: Home Economics

David 'Noshbag' Smith claims that monthly singly monthly figures are a crude measure compared to what I guess (he dosent say) is a monthly moving average. The opposite argument is actually the valid one - Prices ARE falling! Quote: "How do you get a 0.6% fall for London alongside significant price rises in most of its boroughs? The answer, it seems, is that the monthly figure for London as a whole is a crude snapshot, while the detailed numbers for the boroughs are based on a more sophisticated rolling statistical calculation. I would find it hard to argue, on the basis of these numbers, that London house prices suddenly snapped in October...Before wallowing in the gloom, however, it is worth digging a little deeper into the facts behind the headlines. Logical rubbish!!

Posted by hyrax @ 01:02 PM 6 Comments

Capitalists beg for socialist style state intervention to fix their latest failure.

FT.com: UK owners may be forced to sell homes

Michael Coogan, director-general, urged the government to pledge more money to help those in danger of falling off the housing ladder. UK 'teaser freezers' on the way?

Posted by tick tock @ 11:18 AM 17 Comments

A cut with no im-pact (3)

ThisWasMoney: Batten down hatches for the debt storm

Ray Boulger at broker John Charcol in central London says borrowers should not panic. 'Only those with adverse credit are having difficulty remortgaging to a competitive deal,' ... but it only takes 5% of total property owners having to sell to plunge prices by 40%!! It is supply and demand, Ray

Posted by confused76 @ 11:15 AM 0 Comments

More gloom from the City

Independent: City warns of 10% slump in house prices

British house prices are set to tumble by more than 10 per cent next year, according to City traders. This weekend they warned that residential property values might continue to suffer up until 2012. Invesco Perpetual's star fund managerNeil Woodford warned: "There is every possibility that the housing market... will deliver a shock to consumer confidence and spending. In this situation, it is likely we will flirt with recession."

Posted by confused76 @ 11:08 AM 10 Comments

BTL next for the run?

Telegraph: Run on property funds as buildings fail to sell

Uncertainty over pricing in the market and expectations that valuers will knock a further 8 to 10 per cent from valuations in the current quarter have left commercial property buyers reluctant to enter the market. A spokesperson for the FSA said: "We are monitoring the situation with property funds and their redemption policies closely." Thats a big help then.

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 11:05 AM 1 Comments

House prices pumped by interest rate cuts

Telegraph: House prices pumped by interest rate cuts

"but now several MPC members have panicked and ushered in a period of looser policy which will overheat house prices even more" I think it's probably too late for this to happen now but we shall see.

Posted by becky @ 09:00 AM 2 Comments

Sad truth about the cut - I wish David Smith read his own newspaper

Times: Banks make millions from rate cut

Read this article: there is only ONE category of "winners" versus FOUR categories of losers. Well done!! "HIGH STREET banks are already making millions from last weeks interest-rate cut, having sneakily slashed savings rates up to six weeks ahead of the announcement while mortgage rates for some borrowers will not come down until the new year"

Posted by confused76 @ 08:54 AM 4 Comments

David Smith claims credit for the base rate cut

Times: Well-judged jab of confidence for UK

"THE pebble I started rolling down the hill this time last week, calling for an interest-rate cut by the Bank of England, had turned into a boulder by Thursday lunchtime. The noise was deafening. Some say monetary policy is dull. Not these days." ... he needs mental help, clearly

Posted by confused76 @ 08:49 AM 6 Comments

Snap a bargain!

Times: House sales - your chance to bag a bargain

There are good reductions out there. Foxtons, for example, has a one-bed flat on Eaton Place, in Belgravia, that has been on sale since September its price has fallen from 800,000 to 600,000. In Tetbury, Gloucestershire, Knight Frank has been trying to sell a five-bed house since October; it is for sale at 975,000, down from 1.2m.

Posted by confused76 @ 08:46 AM 4 Comments

Madness to continue???

Sunday Express: BANKS RAISE HOME HOPES

The most bullish paper in UK has written.....''THE cost of home loans is likely to tumble in the New Year as the major banks prepare to slash their rates. One leading economist predicted last night that interest rates could fall as low as four per cent as the Bank of England responds to fears of a housing crash'' An attempt to stimulate the market, in the face of a threat of a HPC. I get the impression those folks in the BOE [Bank of Brown] don't care about inflation, preserving insane house prices is their aim.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:28 AM 0 Comments

Joke Section at the Times Online at it again

Times Online: House sales - your chance to bag a bargain

With less than three weeks to go before Christmas, buying a house is likely to be low on most peoples list of priorities especially in the current climate. Prices are falling, buyers pulling out, repossessions rising. But, despite all the gloomy predictions, could now be a good time to buy?

Posted by british exile @ 07:13 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, December 8, 2007

City of culture downturn!

Liverpool Daily post: Sales down at citys John Lewis store

Liverpool won the city of culture recently well it looks like its going to be a dissaster for property prices. In an earlrer article a flat went for auction at little over 100,000 having been bought 3 years ago for over 200,000. Now thats well over 50% drop more like 60% if you factor in expenses and inflation in the last 3 years. Up market John Lewis shop in Liverpool has seen a 5% decline in shop sales recently all which does not bode well for property prices in Liverpool.

Posted by doomberger @ 10:29 PM 1 Comments

Flat prices collapsing to half price.

Liverpool Echo: Luxury city centre flat goes for half the price it was bought for

Its been well versed they are building too many flats and a liverpool flat sold at auction for 50% of its bought price does not bode well for flat owners. The flat had been advertised nearly 2 months previously. Is this the start of a crash? Well we aren't talking about a small drop here its a massive drop on the buy price. If you add on inflation since it was first bought the drop is even worse. Is this the new year sales come early? Well it was bound to happen. The commentator on BBC news north west attempted to put a spin on it by saying there was another similal flat in the bulding at twice the price...however it was empty and up for sale. Bet you all the owners are sweating at the moment.

Posted by doomberger @ 08:50 PM 0 Comments

Could have a point !

Telegraph: Builders at knockdown prices

Robert Cole argues that the builders are dirt cheap at the mo. Could be a good time to pick up a few shares.
Also said:
"Once homebuyers lose faith in their hope that house prices are a one-way bet, the market could find itself well and truly stuck."

Posted by voiceofreason @ 08:47 PM 2 Comments

Rates to go up in 2008 ?

Sunday Herald: That rate cut: how I called it wrong and got it right

THE BANK of England's decision last week to cut interest rates has raised serious questions about its independence. Rather than thinking long-term about the economy or the worsening outlook for inflation, the bank seems to have caved in to pressure from siren voices in the media, banks, the wider financial services sector and the property sector.

Posted by ash4781 @ 07:30 PM 0 Comments

It's different this time.

Telegraph: Fears as Libor fails to mirror base rate cut

"Mortgage lenders tend to price their variable rates off three-month Libor, which is also a key determinant in the cost of borrowing for businesses." This maybe why Birmingham Midshire(HBOS) are offering 6.97% AER on a fixed rate 3 month bond. Fill yer boots and protect your savings whilst you can. The pound may devalue but it will go along way in the property market in the near future.

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 04:12 PM 0 Comments

All good news from America!!

CBS news: Moneywatch

CBS news article on youtube. All lovely news. Sign of things to come.

Posted by inbreda @ 03:55 PM 4 Comments

But it will be all right on the night

Times: House prices will continue to fall despite latest rate cut, says HBOS

...strong economic background... supply shortages....underpin market... All the old cliches here from another cliched VI. Now they have to admit prices are falling, they claim it won't be for long. The frightening prospect is that big interest rate cuts from now on might just keep the whole disaster going, and perpetuate the gross inequalities of wealth that are so apparent here in the SE. Courage my housepricecrashers.

Posted by letthemfall @ 02:11 PM 0 Comments

History repeats itself

Tgraph: 1991 here we come

there is now a whole generation who haven't a clue what a bust feels like. They only know the comforting boom, boom, boom of the last 10 years, a golden age where credit has been cheap and practically limitless, a second home has seemed more like a right than a privilege and exotic holidays have become the norm. It was much the same atmosphere in the 1980s....

Posted by confused76 @ 01:49 PM 9 Comments

One for the diary on Monday, Merry Christmas ;-)

C4 Dispatches: Christmas Credit Crisis

With higher interest rates and the UK banks burnt by the global credit crunch, reporter Tazeen Ahmad investigates the unsettling implications for those who've borrowed too much.

Posted by hoyo @ 11:45 AM 0 Comments

Another one bites the dust

Firstrung: Sub prime credit crunch claims another victim as TML goes into administration

The Mortgage Lender has confirmed it has gone into administration as a direct result of the 'liquidity crisis'. Andrew Duncan and Andrew Stoneman, partners from Menzies Corporate Restructuring, have been appointed as adminstrators to TML Financial Solutions Limited, which trades as The Mortgage Lender. The Hampshire based brokerage launched in 2000 originally as part of Kensington mortgages and specialised in the sub prime and specialist market. The company has a staff of 250.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:33 AM 1 Comments

The trend is your friend

Firstrung: UK house prices show modest growth in November - FT Index

"House prices in England and Wales increased by just 0.5% in November, suggesting that last month's rise of 0.7% was a blip. On an annual basis, the rate of house price inflation has continued the downward path recorded since June, and is now 9.1%, the lowest level since January this year."The FT index is based on all property transactions in England and Wales, and our evidence of a softening market is very much in line with other indices despite the different reporting bases. The prices on which the FT index is based reflect transactions agreed some weeks ago. With continued weakening in consumer confidence and the further negative commentary on market prospects in 2008, we would expect this downward trend to continue.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:30 AM 1 Comments

No need to buy a canoe... foreign BTLers will just empty their bank accounts and fly home

Tgraph: Our life of lies, by the 'dead' canoeist's wife

I know this is a personal tragedy and I do not want to make fun of it. "Mrs Darwin claimed that her husband planned his disappearing act at the beginning of 2002 to escape debt from a failing property portfolio. "We were struggling to make payments and there were late payment fees and bank charges that crippled us." Much simpler for the London BTLers who can just wire funds offshore and fly back home! Good luck to the banks left with the keys of tenanced flats

Posted by confused76 @ 10:31 AM 4 Comments

This will take the shine off the 0.25% cut

Daily Mail: A new mortgage? That'll be 10,000: Lenders raise fees to 'astronomical' levels

Finance giants are taking advantage of home buyers by introducing 'astronomical' mortgage application fees that can top 10,000. Banks and building societies are cashing in through charges that can add crippling extra costs to buying a home or remortgaging. The swingeing fees mean that this week's decision by the Bank of England to cut the base rate by a quarter point may offer little benefit.

Posted by jack c @ 09:52 AM 10 Comments

10-15% Discounted asking prices

Expressansstar.com: House price slump fears

House prices in the West Midlands could slump next year despite the cut in interest rates it was predicted today.

Posted by ash4781 @ 09:44 AM 2 Comments

Rethinking Inflationary Targeting and Central Bank Independence

Willem H. Buiter: How Robust is the New Conventional Wisdom in Monetary Policy?

After watching powerpoint presentation. One question came to mind. What about Northern Rock. Enjoy the presentation by Willem H. Buiter - Professor of European Political Economy, European Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science. Presented at the 2007 Chief Economists Workshop: Policy challenges to monetary theory at the Bank of England, Wednesday 18 April 2007. Maybe we can become a Chief Economist or Central Banker too.

Posted by stevie dee @ 09:24 AM 0 Comments

It is different this time: unlike in 2004, BTL is a real catalyst of crash

icNewcastle: Landlords pulling out of market

Its manic, because many traditional lenders in buy-to-let have pulled out. Landlords are remortgaging into a Woolwich tracker at 0.69% over base rate (currently 6.44%) with no redemption charges, no legal fees, no broker fees and only a 295 arrangement fee. I think experienced landlords are remortgaging to 75% of current value to release cash in 2008 to grab bargains from distressed sellers. Yeah, fine, many BTLers may not be forced to sell immediately... but where will large capital gains come from if the demand at the bottom of the pyramid (FTBs and "novice" subprime BTLs) has dried out? Oh, I forgot the Russians and All-the-stans here in London

Posted by confused76 @ 09:01 AM 9 Comments

Top story on FT website -- doesn't get much more bearish than that

Financial Times: UK owners may be forced to sell homes

Homeowners may be forced to sell next year and join the ranks of renters when lenders tighten terms for borrowers with poor credit histories, the Council of Mortgage Lenders warned yesterday. ... Separately, it emerged yesterday that one of the first intermediaries in the riskier end of the mortgage market was this week forced to call in administrators. The Mortgage Lender, a Hampshire-based mortgage broker, provides mortgages to the subprime end of the market, as well as to upmarket borrowers.

Posted by richc @ 08:58 AM 9 Comments

The Guardian

The Guardian: Does property still make sense?

Sarah Beeny "......you're definitely not mad to buy at the moment. You have to look at it all relatively. The reality is, people talk about a dip in the market but if you are buying a home today you are going to be in it for five, 10 or 15 years. "Over that sort of time period it is just not going to be a problem. Even if your home does come down a little in value, that just means the next one you buy will be cheaper as well." She says that potential buyers are in the grip of irrational fears. "Interest rates really aren't at that high a level and it's quite a different economic climate to the early 1990s when rates were at 15%. People aren't in a position where they have to sell because they can't afford the mortgage."

Posted by eagle @ 07:53 AM 4 Comments

HBOS Predict

Telegraph: North to suffer most in house price freeze

Homeowners in the north and the Midlands have more to fear next year than those in the rest of the UK, according to the annual prediction from HBOS

Posted by alan @ 01:09 AM 4 Comments

Friday, December 7, 2007

A cut with no im-pact (2)

Times: Egg refuses to pass on rate cut to borrowers

"Egg will cut its SVR from 6.94 per cent to 6.79 per cent from January 1. A borrower with a 150,000 interest-only mortgage pegged at the lender's SVR will save 18.75 on their monthly repayments following the rate cut." C'mon this is hardly news!! I post more comments on why the BoE has lost control in the comments.

Posted by confused76 @ 10:54 PM 9 Comments

FT index still rising but suggests "softening market"

FT: HP Index rises 0.5% in November

House prices in England and Wales increased by just 0.5% in November, suggesting that last months rise of 0.7% was a blip. On an annual basis, the rate of house price inflation has continued the downward path recorded since June, and is now 9.1%, the lowest level since January this year. The FT index is based on all property transactions in England and Wales, and our evidence of a softening market is very much in line with other indices despite the different reporting bases. The prices on which the FT index is based reflect transactions agreed some weeks ago.

Posted by uncle chris @ 06:51 PM 0 Comments

Some 3,000 wealthy foreigners will leave Britain as a result of the planned clampdown on their beneficial tax regime, the UK Treasury has admitted.

ft.com: Wealthy foreigners set to quit UK over tax

Some 3,000 wealthy foreigners will leave Britain as a result of the planned clampdown on their beneficial tax regime, the UK Treasury has admitted. Under plans announced in October, foreign citizens based in the UK who are exempt from tax on their offshore income, the so-called non doms, will face an annual charge of 30,000 (41,600) once they have lived in Britain for at least seven years. The Treasury also intends to close the loophole under which they can escape capital gains tax.

Posted by chris @ 04:08 PM 0 Comments

Kirstie offers to go naked!

BBC: Tory bid to speed up house sales

The party has recruited property expert Kirstie Allsopp to help come up with ideas to make the process less expensive and stressful

Posted by alan @ 04:07 PM 15 Comments

Houses in South Overvalued

BBC News Archive: Houses in South Overvalued

We have seen it all before more than 5 years ago. PWC research as well. They are going to start cutting rates like they did after the .com bubble and 9/11

Posted by maddison @ 02:42 PM 15 Comments

Want to take free lessons in Economics and Finance... jump in London cab!

Tgraph: Too much cheap credit can be ruinous

"In Roaring Twenties' America, Joseph Kennedy knew it was time to off-load his shares when the shoe-shine boy started giving him stock tips. In New Millennium Britain, we have been witnessing a similar, equally clear, "sell signal": mini-cab drivers as property tycoons." ... well, add plumbers, builders, etc.

Posted by confused76 @ 02:23 PM 3 Comments

Despite interest rate cuts

Reuters: Halifax predicts 0% house price growth in 2008

Halifax have predicted annual house price inflation will fall to zero next year, even if interest rates fall to 5 percent. However, it said high employment and sound economic fundamentals would prevent widespread house price falls.

Posted by little professor @ 01:25 PM 17 Comments

Although the credit crunch has made life tougher, developers who keep an eye on cash flow can prosper in 2008

FindaProperty Website: New Homes Market Can Weather Storm

Expect to see more of this stuff.....Things are bad yes but best get yourself ready for the upturn... Dont Miss Out, Get your Finance in place to buy cheaper land in 08/09 Hurry Hurry!!!

Posted by techieman @ 01:01 PM 2 Comments

When it comes to the crunch

The Guardian: When it comes to the crunch

Another interesting article by Larry Elliot. I like his comment "The speculative buying has dried up, activity has fallen sharply and the cost of homes has started to fall. Only in the Alice in Wonderland world that is modern Britain could this be deemed a bad thing." And he hits the nail on the head with the next bit... "The problem, though, is without oodles of speculation, be it in the Square Mile or in the massively overblown housing market, there is not an awful lot left of Britain's so-called miracle economy. "

Posted by becky @ 12:53 PM 3 Comments

US Mortgage freeze is a political joke

Portfolio.com: Why Lenders Love the Mortgage-Freeze Plan

"If you have good credit and are current on your mortgage, you're not eligible for the freeze. If you have bad credit and you are behind on your mortgage, you're not eligible for the freeze. The only way that you can be eligible for the freeze is if you have bad credit and you're current on your mortgage, and it will reset to a higher rate after January 1, and your mortgage servicer determines that you won't be able to make your mortgage payments after they reset."

Posted by happyrenterz @ 12:32 PM 2 Comments

To what extent does history repeat itself?

BBC Vintage: UK rental market 'wobbling'

May 2002: "People who have bought properties in the UK specifically to make money from renting them out - known as buy-to-let investors - have been urged to take a more cautious approach. Income from rental properties has fallen for the fifth quarter in a row, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has said. There is a waiting list of landlords. Normally there is a waiting list of tenants Rental yields in the central London market have been under pressure for several months because a slump in corporate lettings has led to too many properties on the market."

Posted by confused76 @ 12:26 PM 5 Comments

Rate cuts won't help the housing market

MoneyWeek: Rate cuts haven't stopped the US housing crash

The pundits have been unanimous in welcoming yesterday's rate cut. But whatever spin property salespeople put on it, it won't make much difference to house prices. Just look at what's happening in the US...

Posted by mary @ 12:25 PM 1 Comments

0.25% Rate cut is not much help when you drowning

FT: A rate cut is no comfort if viewed from the clifftop

"Retailers who have seen their sales tumble ..... theres a simple reason for that: the number of homeowners emerging, shocked, from generous fixed-rate mortgages is too great, as the Council of Mortgage Lenders confirms. In September 2005, nearly three quarters of new mortgages were completed at a fixed rate the highest proportion for years and the rate averaged 4.8 per cent. Advance to September 2007, when the most popular two-year fixed-rates expired, and the average fix had soared to 6.4 per cent."

Posted by happyrenterz @ 11:43 AM 12 Comments

Nationalisation for Northern Rock!?

Telegraph: Northern Rock: FLowers Quits Race

Nationalisation looms larger as JC Flowers quits contest to buy stricken lender, and Virgin battles to secure 11bn loan US private equity firm JC Flowers has walked away from the competition to buy Northern Rock, raising the prospect that the Government will have to consider nationalising the Newcastle-based lender. In letters sent to the stricken bank and to the Treasury yesterday afternoon, Flowers is understood to have told Northern Rock's chairman, Bryan Sanderson, and John Kingman at the Treasury that it could not construct a deal meeting its own profitability criteria that would be acceptable to the Government.

Posted by matt @ 11:08 AM 0 Comments

We're Going To Party Like It's 1929

washingtonpost.com: It's Not 1929, but It's the Biggest Mess Since

Columnist Steven Pearlstein predicts even grimmer times ahead, in this concise and informative walk through the developing global economic crisis. Hey, life isn't all bad though. Apart from this week's cut in UK interest rates, the Pope has just rolled out a seasonal deal offering 50% off time spent in purgatory (for just a little cash outlay up front). Sadly, the sub-prime sinners still get the full roast. Happy 2008 everyone!

Posted by lierbag @ 11:06 AM 5 Comments

The R word and Housing market correction in one article

Citywire: Neil Woodford sees Britain as nation 'flirting with recession'

Neil Woodford, the country's leading equity income fund manager, believes there is a strong chance the UK will be in recession by the end of next year. Interesting analysis from the UKs leading and most successful Fund manager (alongside Anthony Bolton) rarely has this man got it wrong in the last 20 years!

Posted by jack c @ 10:58 AM 1 Comments

So what is the consensus on average house prices three years hence? Somewhere below 190,000. Want to bet?

FT: House pricing: To go up or go down, that is the question

"But what is equally noteworthy is that the several hundred IG clients who bet on house prices are on average expecting London prices to fall by 3 per cent over the next six months. The Halifax monthly survey, which gives only a single national average figure, without regional break-downs, suggests they may be right. Halifax recorded a national average house price down 0.5 per cent in October, relative to September, to 197,248." BTLETTER CAVEAT

Posted by confused76 @ 10:55 AM 3 Comments

C'mon folks, do we want to go back to discuss housing on this site? too much talk about the unconsequential rate cut of yesterday

MoneWeek: London house prices aren't immune to a slowdown

"But in the end Im afraid that only one number stuck in my head, 3.2%. Thats the net yield on the properties Naomi sources. Its also more than 2% below the base rate and at least 3% below the price of the average buy-to-let mortgage."

Posted by confused76 @ 10:44 AM 4 Comments

Bush: Dial 1-800-OOPS for housing help

Reuters: Bush: Dial 1-800-OOPS for housing help

"U.S. homeowners who could face crippling mortgage payments will have a hard time getting help if they call a telephone number President George W. Bush recommended on Thursday -- he gave them the wrong number." "Calls to the wrong number Bush gave out were met with a busy signal. A search on the Internet showed it belongs to the Freedom Christian Academy which offers religious-based curriculum for home schooling and is located in Ponder, Texas northwest of Dallas."

Posted by gregspam @ 10:39 AM 0 Comments

Jeff Randall sparkles

Telegraph: Too much cheap credit can be ruinous

"Roger Bootle, the City economist and Daily Telegraph columnist, wrote four years ago: "Once the property market has come down to earth, people will have to face the awful truth - no more money for nothing." He was right. That moment is now."

Posted by letthemfall @ 09:37 AM 0 Comments

Halifax cuts from 7.75% to 7.50%; Nationwide cuts 7.24% to 6.99%

BBC: Mortgage firms react to rate cut

Leading mortgage lenders have responded to the Bank of England's interest rate cut, fully passing it on borrowers. Halifax and Nationwide were the first to reduce their standard rates after the Bank reduced the UK base rate from 5.75% to 5.5%. Passing on the cut in full will knock between 15 and 20 off the monthly repayments on a 100,000 mortgage.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:04 AM 17 Comments

The chart below looks like the cardiogram of a patient who is suffering a heart attack

Times Online: Britain is structurally more vulnerable than America to a severe economic slowdown.

Britain is structurally more vulnerable than America to a severe economic slowdown. This is because Britain's growth in the past decade has been driven by three forces finance, housing and public sector spending all of which are now going into reverse. To make matters worse, the City is about to be hit by the biggest tax changes in a generation, which are bound to drive at least some high-value financial activities offshore.

Posted by chris @ 06:41 AM 2 Comments

Experts warned that it was a sign that the credit crisis could escalate over the Christmas period,

Telegraph: Market fears that Bank has 'lost control'

even though the Bank has now embarked on a major series of interest rate cuts for the first time in almost eight years. It coincided with a chilling warning from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development that the UK economy is heading for a major slowdown next year - and possibly a "significant slump" in house prices

Posted by chris @ 03:31 AM 10 Comments

Cheap Money Junkies: Gimme More ... Just One More Hit ... Gimme More ...

Guardian: Bank cuts rate but City now wants more

The build-up to the next general election could see interest rates cut to 4% as the Bank of England seeks to avert a crisis in Britain's overstretched housing market, the City was predicting last night.

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:35 AM 4 Comments

Bloomberg Questions whether Inflation with bite BoE in the Behind

Bloomberg News: BOE Effort to Combat Slowdown May Instead Spur Faster Inflation

The BoE caved to pressure, or they took the view that the Libor rate needed pulling down if only in the short term... Either way, there are serious doubts as to whether this won't lead to long term inflationary issues. Will 2008 be a year forever remembered by economists, when it all goes pear-shaped?

Posted by meedge @ 01:00 AM 1 Comments

Thursday, December 6, 2007

CDOs or What a liquid mess ( where the money went )

Portfolio.com from Ben Bland of Telegraph: What is a CDO

A media animated graphic showing what a CDO ( the cause of the credit crunch) is, illustrated by an anology of overflowing buckets (nice!). Fun to watch..but not sure where it will end up? How do you unmix spilt money; anyone!?

Posted by hyrax @ 11:39 PM 0 Comments

Well at least there is some good news

Reuters: Pension schemes' deficits close

Pension schemes have been an unlikely beneficiary of the turmoil in the credit markets sparked by the subprime mortgage crisis. A major factor behind the dramatic improvement in many pension schemes' funding is due to the falling value of AA-rated corporate bonds, which firms use as a benchmark measure for valuing their pension liabilities.

Posted by stevie dee @ 11:28 PM 0 Comments

Too little, too late (Katrina revisited)

Bloomberg: Bush Touts Subprime Plan Faulted for Coming Too Late

President George W. Bush today announced an interest-rate freeze for subprime borrowers that Democrats said didn't go far enough and Standard & Poor's warned may lead to lower ratings on some mortgage bonds. ``I wish he would have started this process sooner", said Democratic Representative Maxine Waters of California. ``It's only going to help a very, very small number of people.''

Posted by alan @ 10:11 PM 1 Comments

In the bleak midwinter

http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10259027&top_story=1: Both central banks faced a dilemma

. On the one hand, the credit crunch resulting from the worldwide financial turmoil of the past few months will slow growth next year. New forecasts on Thursday from the OECD suggested that growth in Britain would slow from 3.1% in 2007 to 2.0% in 2008; in the euro area from 2.6% to 1.9%

Posted by chris @ 09:24 PM 0 Comments

Rate cut was needed to avoid economic disaster

Times Online: The Bank better get this right

Businesses, homeowners and credit providers in Britain have experienced an interest rate rise of almost a full percentage point since the summer, even though the Bank has theoretically kept its policy on hold while assessing the consequences of the global credit crunch.

Posted by pendulum @ 08:00 PM 0 Comments

Mortgage lenders reduce rates

BBC news: Mortgage firms react to rate cut

This appears to put a hole in the argument that lenders wouldn't pass on rate cuts to their borrowers.

Posted by jason74 @ 07:58 PM 0 Comments

Alarm Bells not Jingle Bells

Mortgage Strategy: TML confirms administration rumours

The Mortgage Lender has confirmed it has gone into administration as a direct result of the liquidity crisis. Andrew Duncan and Andrew Stoneman, partners from Menzies Corporate Restructuring have been appointed as adminstrators to TML Financial Solutions Limited, which trades as The Mortgage Lender. The Hampshire-based brokerage launched in 2000 and specialised in the sub-prime and specialist market with a staff of 250 . The firm says it was trading profitably until the end of September, when the recent liquidity crisis meant it was difficult to source products for its client-base as lenders pulled out of sub-prime or tightened criteria. Another to add to a growing list odf departures from the UK mortgage market - interesting to see if TML get's BOE backing (LOL)

Posted by jack c @ 07:25 PM 4 Comments

Phew - only 5%. I'm so happy and glad.

BBC: Council tax increases 'below 5%'

"Council tax bills in England must increase by "substantially" less than 5% next year, the government has said." "Keeping council tax under control remains a high priority for this government." How much has council tax increased over the last 10 years??? Is it now official government policy just to take the p*ss out of people?

Posted by sovietuk @ 05:58 PM 11 Comments

A cut with no impact

Forbes: UK property sellers will still need to drop prices despite rate cut - Rightmove

'There is still a rump of unsold, overpriced and unaffordable property on the market... and sellers of these properties must not think the drop in interest rates means they do not have to drop their asking prices,' said Miles Shipside, Commercial Director of Rightmove.

Posted by confused76 @ 05:56 PM 4 Comments

Rate reduction for borrowers? Ah ahhah hahahahha hahah

Tgraph: Interest rate cut: No quick win for homeowners

Katie Tucker at John Charcol, the broker, says: "It's good to see Halifax leading the way, although its SVR was pretty hefty anyway and is still higher than Nationwide's which dropped to 6.99 per cent shortly after the MPC decision." And this is if you qualify for a loan at all!! What an i@iotic, useless decision by the MPC today. Just for the benefit of banks' P&Ls.

Posted by confused76 @ 05:49 PM 6 Comments

How to play the food price rises

MoneyWeek: The goose is getting fat - at far greater expense

With food price inflation pushing up the cost of Christmas, Merryn Somerset Webb talks about one investment that could help you profit from the soft commodities boom.

Posted by mary @ 04:16 PM 0 Comments

United States of Bust

Yahoo Finance: Home Foreclosures Hit Record High

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Home foreclosures shot up to an all-time high in the third quarter, fresh evidence of the problems afflicting distressed homeowners amid the housing meltdown.

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 03:26 PM 0 Comments

Buy Euros?!? (I never thought I'd hear myself saying that!)

Bloomberg: Trichet Says ECB Stands Ready to Counter `Strong' Inflation

European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said policy makers stand ready to counter ``strong upward pressure on inflation.'' The ECB ``stands ready to counter upside risks to price stability,'' Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt today after the ECB left its benchmark interest rate at 4 percent. ``We will ensure that second-round effects and risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialize.''

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 02:18 PM 5 Comments

Sounds familiar! INFLATION is on it's way to the UK...

BBC: Rising food prices upset China's shoppers

It is a crisis that may be far worse than the government is letting on, according to Dr He Fan of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences "In the eyes of ordinary people, the official inflation figure is far from the real picture," he says. "Lots of other important things are being left out. There's been a rapid rise in the cost of housing too. People are worried."

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 02:09 PM 4 Comments

the beginning of the end

guy fawkes: No Boom. Just Bust.

The latest insolvency figures are out. Gordon has certainly put an end to the boom, just not so sure about the bust. Is it a prudent moment to put 30 billion of public money into Northern Rock's mortgage risk as property prices turn down?

Posted by seanb303 @ 02:09 PM 4 Comments

Paulson asks China again to revalue

Bloomberg: China's Yuan Falls Most Since End of Peg Before Paulson Visit

"The yuan tracked declines in the yen and the euro, components of the basket against which the currency is managed. Paulson yesterday said the yuan's 11.7 percent advance since the end of the peg in July, 2005, still isn't ``fast enough'' to address global trade imbalances".

Posted by alan @ 01:14 PM 0 Comments

British Interest Rates:

The Economist: In the Bleak Midwinter

The Bank of England cuts rates by a quarter point. But the economy still faces a painful tumble. The risk is that another bout of higher inflation, might get baked into expectations, leading to an upward spiral of prices and wages. That would make it harder to lower interest rates later.

Posted by little professor @ 01:11 PM 9 Comments

ECB much more level headed and pragmatic. - Huge pain for EU exporters and EU housing wobblers!

BBC: ECB keeps interest rates on hold

The European Central Bank (ECB) has left interest rates unchanged at 4%, in line with analysts' expectations. Eurozone inflation has risen in recent months, pressuring the bank to keep rates at current levels, despite slow growth and global market turbulence.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 01:06 PM 0 Comments

USA and Ireland most at risk

RTE Business: OECD warns that Irish housing boom is over

The fizzling out of the biggest global housing boom in recent history could pose a serious threat to the Irish economy, according to the OECD today.

Posted by ah-so @ 12:57 PM 1 Comments

This will finally sink Brown

The Business: The end of the house price boom is what will finally sink Brown

Like Wile E Coyote, the cartoon character who stays aloft long after he has run off the edge of a cliff, the British housing market has constantly defied gravity. Until now. A raft of figures in recent days has confirmed the inevitable: the great British housing boom is finally at an end. That, far more than the illegal funding scandal currently engulfing the Labour Party, is the news Prime Minister Gordon Brown should truly dread.

Posted by eagle @ 12:18 PM 7 Comments

They've gone and bottled it

Guardian: Rates cut to 5.5%

Inflation Here We Come!!!!!

Posted by inbreda @ 12:11 PM 61 Comments

New rate is 5.5 percent

Bank of England: Bank Rate Reduced

CPI inflation was 2.1% in October. Higher energy and food prices are expected to keep inflation above the target in the short term. Although upside risks to inflation remain, which the Committee will continue to monitor carefully, slowing demand growth should ease the pressures on supply capacity, bringing inflation back to target in the medium term.

Posted by night @ 12:02 PM 0 Comments

BOE blinks first

BBC News: UK Interest rates trimmed to 5.5%

BOE bottles it and shows they are no up to making the really hard necesary decisions.

Posted by ian - bedford @ 12:02 PM 2 Comments

We're doomed!

MoneyWeek: The Bank of England can't save the housing market

No one's trying to deny the housing market's in trouble anymore. Instead, everyone's clamouring for rate cuts. Unfortunately, we're doomed no matter what the Bank of England does.

Posted by mary @ 11:49 AM 4 Comments

5 yr. delay in pain for subprime borrowers?

BBC News: Bush set to unveil sub-prime aid

President George W Bush is expected on Thursday to outline a plan to freeze mortgage rates for five years for homeowners hit by the credit crunch..............But others say such measures would bail out homeowners who made imprudent decisions and delay the necessary correction that home prices must undergo in order to resolve the fundamental problem.

Posted by tick tock @ 11:27 AM 6 Comments

Still Crunchin'

BBC: RBS in 1.25bn credit crunch hit

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has warned it expects to write off about 1.25bn because of its exposure to bad debts in the US sub-prime loans market.

Posted by alan @ 10:51 AM 3 Comments

How to pick the right time to buy gold

MoneyWeek: Two valuable tools to help you trade gold

Thought technical analysis was just mumbo-jumbo? Think again. MoneyWeek's Dominic Frisby explains how reading the charts can help you choose the best times to buy - and sell - gold, in these times of market volatility.

Posted by mary @ 10:04 AM 2 Comments

Any advance on 12% ?

Evening Standard: House Prices On Course To Fall Further

The Halifax Britain's biggest mortgage lender suggests house prices could, no will fall more than 12% in the coming year if this trend continues.

Posted by yoyo1 @ 09:57 AM 10 Comments

Boris nails it

The Telegraph: Innumeracy is pushing the economy off a cliff

More in sorrow than in joy, Boris rises above the 'blame the nasty lenders' mudflinging, to point out the real underlying problem. It's not an evil coterie of financiers, it's not a New World Order, it's not an inherent flaw in capitalism. It's education.

Posted by james @ 09:50 AM 2 Comments

GBrown's BBC does it again!!

BBC: Interest rates tipped to be cut

The Bank of England is set to cut UK interest rates, analysts have forecast, amid signs of a slowing economy. The decision had been seen as too close to call but now the City is widely expecting the cost of borrowing to fall from 5.75% to at least 5.5%.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 08:51 AM 28 Comments

Stand by for 1.20 a litre petrol and 2 for a loaf of bread.

Reuters: Stg hits 4-1/2 yr low vs euro, eyes on rate decision

By 1514 GMT, the euro had risen as high as 72.32 pence, just a little below its 72.55 pence all-time high, set in May 2003. The pound was down 1.3 percent versus the dollar at $2.0324, having hit its lowest since mid October. Because those with serious debt want the party to continue the uk economy has to be trashed in the process. By hook or by crook people will have to face up to the fact that their house is worth alot less than it is today.

Posted by sovietuk @ 08:30 AM 13 Comments

This would be the first stage of peak oil

theoildrum.com: IEA: oil demand has surpassed supply

"The energy watchdog of the OECD counries, the International Energy Agency (IEA), recently started to talk about looming oil shortages. The high oil price of today will remain is the message they are spreading. We need to save more oil, invest more in increasing oil production and upscale alternatives. However, the IEA does not see a peak in worldwide oil production occurring in the coming decades. Based on the expectation that a large amounts of oil yet to be discovered THAT ARE NOT YET ON THE RADAR OF OIL COMPANIES WORLDWIDE." So, supply does now exceed demand and unknown reserves will come to the rescue?! Sounds like the softly softly approach to breaking the house price crash story. For those who don't know, high oil = high inflation = higher interest rates = cheaper houses.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 08:13 AM 7 Comments

Trouble Ahead For The Economy

thebusiness.co.uk: In Shakespeares play, a hallucinating Macbeth has a vision of a dagger, pointing toward the Kings chamber, urging him to follow through on his dark plans to murder Duncan, the sleeping Scottish monarch.

For Gordon Brown, Britains Scottish Prime Minister, there can be no worse nightmare than the prospect of the UK sliding into its first recession in over 15 years. The Prime Minister must feel like being Duncan, with a massive dagger pointing at his chest, ready to puncture what is left of his much-vaunted reputation for economic competence.

Posted by chris @ 02:26 AM 1 Comments

Subprime - it's ALL subprime!!!!!

Wall Street Journal Asia: Subprime Debacle Traps Even Very Credit-Worthy

One common assumption about the subprime mortgage crisis is that it revolves around borrowers with sketchy credit who couldn't have bought a home without paying punitively high interest rates. But it turns out that plenty of people with seemingly good credit are also caught in the subprime trap. An analysis for The Wall Street Journal of more than $2.5 trillion in subprime loans made since 2000 shows that as the number of subprime loans mushroomed, an increasing proportion of them went to people with credit scores high enough to often qualify for conventional loans with far better terms.

55% of all "subprime loans" were to "credit worthy" borrowers

Posted by lvmreader @ 01:16 AM 2 Comments

Confirmed 50% plus price deflation since 2004

Bernard Marcus Auction Result: Auction results

Check out http://www.barnardmarcusauctions.co.uk/ auction results for lot 167 a two bedroomed apartment in Beetham Tower, Liverpool city centre.. According to rightmove 'sold prices' it was purchased in 2004 for 204,000 and HBOS as mortgagees in possession sold it at auction for 101,000. Ouch!!! I'll have two please!! Hang on, with all the new build still going up, i'll leave it a year and have four. Renting and Praying.....

Posted by renting and praying @ 12:06 AM 3 Comments

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

OK Chaps - You're bonuses are saved. Spend it prudently (meaning don't flash it around), you'll give us a bad name.

Yahoo - AP: Stocks Soar As Investors Grow More Optimistic About Economy, Upcoming Interest Rate Cut

3/4 point cut by the FED next time they meet, to really spoon it on. UK 1/4 point cut tomorrow or 1/2 to join in the party, and market crash for late Feb, as the clever goes into Gold as everyone breathes a sigh of relief. And the boys with their bonuses & friends come back and make nice little earner out of the spiked Gold and buy lots of property. Job Done! And they lived happily ever after.

Posted by stevie dee @ 10:10 PM 3 Comments

Goldman Sach's - Who would've guessed it!

FT: Goldman's glory may be short-lived

Big investment banks run advisory, securities and investment businesses but keep them walled off from each other to avoid conflicts of interest and trading on inside information. Goldman has been more aggressive than any other bank in putting the three together - it often advises a company on a transaction, finances it and invests its own money. Interesting Article.. Any comments please.

Posted by stevie dee @ 09:51 PM 8 Comments

Guys: What about this? Will the UK do the same? Will it be 2 years or 5 years? Why not let us all live rent free?! Woo Hoo!!

Yahoo - AP: Five-Year Mortgage Rate Freeze Looms

These aides, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the details have not yet been released, said the five-year moratorium represented a compromise between desires by banking regulators for a longer time frame of as much as seven years and industry arguments that the freeze should only last one to two years. Another person familiar with the matter said the rate-freeze plan would apply to borrowers with loans made at the start of 2005 through July 30 of this year with rates that are scheduled to rise between Jan. 1, 2008, and July 31, 2010.

Posted by stevie dee @ 09:29 PM 17 Comments

Swap Irish for UK and Cowen for Darling whilst reading.

Guardian: Cowen reforms Irish property tax as economy slows

Bad news for builders as Ireland's decade-long property boom ends after house prices quadrupled and is expected to lead to a sharp slowdown in house building in 2008 as the economy falters and Ireland falls deeper into the red.

This is the UK next year as well.

Posted by enuii @ 07:50 PM 4 Comments

What to do with property?

Rate cuts won't help the S.S. Fantasy Island

Telegrath: What difference will a cut in interest rates make?

A cut in rates will be like the captain of the Titanic ordering full steam ahead when holed below the waterline thus making the ship sink even faster.

The comments say it all, so why can't the morally bankrupt UK media come clean about it!

Posted by enuii @ 05:36 PM 6 Comments

Rates on way down?

Guardian: Rate cut calls get louder

Pressure mounted on the Bank of England today to cut interest rates as it began its latest monthly meeting, as weak data flooded in from the housing market and huge service sector of the economy. Shares surged on hopes of a cut, which would bring much-needed relief to homeowners, who have seen interest rates raised five times in the last year. Looks like the city has already factored in a cut? So much for keeping inflation at bay!!

Posted by kc @ 01:37 PM 1 Comments

Capital Economics claims 3% drop forecast was "conservative"

Findaproperty: House prices have fallen for the third consecutive month, says the Halifax

"But the bottom line is that evidence of a housing market correction is rapidly mounting. And while the direction of our forecast is firmly on track, given that they have already fallen by 2.3 per cent over the past three months, our prediction for house prices to fall by three per cent in 2008 is beginning to look too conservative." Falling knife?

Posted by confused76 @ 01:14 PM 15 Comments

Why a rate cut won't fix the credit crunch

Financial Times: Rate cut reasoning

Good article in the FT telling it how it is, free of the usual VI agenda: a rate cut is not going to help the credit crunch which has to do with credit risk perception rather than liquidity so the BoE should hold firm tomorrow and wait to see what the post-Christmas retail data will bring before making any changes (up or down) to interest rates. Now who should we believe? The Council for Mortgage Lenders, BTL lenders, Tesco's and politicians OR the FT who employ real analysts and financial experts with experience of the City and economics?

Posted by an bearin bui @ 01:14 PM 0 Comments

No escape for Brown

www.Polotics.co.uk: Brown 'cannot avoid blame' for house price crash

Surely "Crash Gordon Clown" must know the writing is on the wall for him and his "Mirage Economy"...!!! I reckon he will a) Resign, or b) face mutiny by his own cabinet within a year.

Posted by noodlebike @ 11:43 AM 0 Comments

Die-hard "fill ya' boots" mentality prevails despite bidders dropping out

Grauniad: Northern Rock employees get hefty Christmas bonus

There's something unnerving about a bank that has been temporarily bailed out by the state, haemorraghing money, 6 feet under in debt that is lavishing rewards on the employees who got them there in the first place. When this happens in other countries, the media calls it "corruption".

Posted by paul @ 11:42 AM 15 Comments

BBC finally cottoning on to the mindset of "young adults"

BBC News: Property 'no solution' to debts

This article states the obvious (obvious at least to those of us who frequent this website). But it is good to see advice like this getting a higher profile in the media. "Borrowers who believe rising house prices or insolvency will solve their debt problems risk 'financial suicide'...the report warned against a mistaken belief that rising house prices or insolvency provided an easy route out of debt."

Posted by principia @ 11:42 AM 0 Comments

Structural changes taking place ?

Bloomberg: Gulf Arab Nations May Revalue Currencies to Combat Weak Dollar

"Gulf Arab nations may revalue their dollar-pegged currencies in the next two months to combat the inflationary affect of a weakening dollar, according to Standard Chartered Plc. The six Gulf Cooperation Council members, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman are restricted in the fight against inflation because their dollar pegs force them to mimic U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy. Rising import prices caused by the dollar's decline and increased revenue from higher oil prices has pushed inflation to a five- year high in the Gulf region".

Posted by alan @ 11:34 AM 2 Comments

Cost of living is up, largely due to houses

Telegraph: Disposable income at lowest level in 10 years

Disposable income is at its lowest level for a decade, as taxes, housing costs, phone bills and travel expenses eat into salaries, researchers say. While the average household gross income has climbed over the past decade from 34,796 to 53,835, people have far less of that money to spend each month after they have paid essential bills.

Posted by drewster @ 11:33 AM 9 Comments

5000 lost on average house since August!! (for BTL this excludes the tenant subsidy)

Guardian: House prices fall for third month running

"However, he said a shortage of supply and a sound UK economy would prevent a market crash. "Strong market fundamentals, a structural housing supply shortage and pent-up demand from a large number of potential first-time buyers will support house prices, preventing a sustained and significant fall," he said." Dude, ever heard of a FALLING KNIFE?? UAAAH HAHAHHAH

Posted by confused76 @ 11:02 AM 3 Comments

Erm ...

The Housing Market Con!

Guardian: Revealed: how UK banks exploit charity tax laws

I've always suspected that, in the UK, the whole housing market is a big con designed to exploit the young, poor and stupid! I never thought they would sink this low, however. "Officials of the Charity Commission are already examining Northern Rock after the Guardian reported last week that it was using the name of a small charity for children with Down's syndrome. That inquiry now looks likely to be expanded, with the activities of up to 11 more banks coming under scrutiny, and the commission seeking to establish whether any have breached UK charity law"

Posted by papabear @ 10:54 AM 5 Comments

Cutting rates tomorrow is CRIMINAL

Times: Ominous warning sign as British Gas raises tariffs

British households suffered a fresh blow to their strained finances yesterday as British Gas said that it was lifting the price of a key energy tariff by up to 15 per cent, prompting fears of a wider increase in gas and electricity bills in the new year. Britains largest energy supplier said that it was putting prices up on its Market Tracker price plan, which follows prices in the wholesale energy market, by 13 per cent for gas and 15 per cent for electricity, with immediate effect.

Posted by confused76 @ 10:19 AM 17 Comments

A big oily spanner appears at the eleventh hour!!! - Could this stay the cut?

Times: Opec expected to delay oil decision to March

Opec, the oil producers group that pumps 40 per cent of the world's crude, is expected to keep output levels unchanged despite strong calls from the West to increase production. Ali al-Nuaimi, the Saudi Oil Minister, told reporters at the start of the meeting: There is nothing that justifies an increase or a decrease." A decision not to increase production is likely to result in oil prices climbing back to their record high of $99.29 a barrel on November 21, after cooling in recent weeks on expectations of an increase in output. This morning London Brent crude rose 57 cents to $90.10, while US crude was up 46 cents to $88.78.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:33 AM 7 Comments

Ooops I am not the only person laughing :))

IFAonline: Assetz laughs off UK property struggle 'fuss'

"The average house price will grow, interest rates will drop and rents will climb in 2008, according to Stuart Law, chief executive of property investment firm Assetz." "If people look at the fundamentals it is actually very hard to find out what all the fuss is about My answer is simply UAAHHAHHA

Posted by confused76 @ 09:14 AM 11 Comments

Marriages and having kids = no HPC

Reuters: Libor jump said "not due to deeper credit crisis"

Idiotic vested interest Steven Crawshaw, chief executive of buy-to-let lender Bradford & Bingley, thinks that because "people will still have kids and get married", that Buy-to-Lose will surpise everyone and return profits to investors over the next two years. Clearly during the last crash people remained single then.

Posted by ntone606 @ 08:35 AM 4 Comments

Interest Rate Drop ?

Bloomberg: U.K. Home Prices Fall for Third Month, Worst Streak Since 1995

U.K. house prices fell for a third month in November, the worst performance in more than a decade, and consumer confidence slumped, signs that rising credit costs are hobbling growth in Europe's second-largest economy.

Posted by mrmickey @ 08:01 AM 22 Comments

Consumer Confidence down into Christmas

InTheNews.co.uk: Consumer confidence slumps

Lender Nationwide said its main consumer confidence index fell by 12 points to 86 last month the largest single monthly fall recorded since the index was launched in May 2004..."Uncertainty about the effects of the credit crunch together with rising oil and food prices seem to be affecting feelings about jobs and the future economic situation. "With this in mind, it is natural that consumers would think about tightening their belts this Christmas and this is reflected in the weaker spending index," she added.All four of Nationwide's confidence indices fell in November, with the spending index a measure of consumer's willingness to part with their cash dropping 14 points to 63...Expectations of house price growth have also fallen

Posted by disillusioned @ 07:46 AM 4 Comments

Strong Fundamentals ??

Telegraph: Rock could be nationalised by February

Draft bill could be pushed through in a single day as deadline approaches for private buyers to rescue stricken bank

Posted by sovietuk @ 07:21 AM 3 Comments

Yessssss Yeah Hieeeepiiieeeeeee Ya Haaaa!!!!!!!!!!

CityWire: House prices drop 1.1% but mortgage approvals PLUMMET says Halifax

House prices dropped by 1.1% in November according to the latest data from the Halifax while mortgage approvals have plummeted by a third compared to last year. The latest survey by the Halifax found that market activity in the housing market fell by 12% in November but mortgage approvals in the month were 32% lower than the same month last year.

Posted by confused76 @ 07:02 AM 24 Comments

China set for "lost decade"

Prudent bear: The coming China crash

"Chinas $1.4 trillion of reserves are in fact almost all required to prop up the banking system, when the inevitable liquidity crisis occurs. If the banks are to survive, China Investment will have to be followed by six more sovereign wealth funds of equal size, each of which will have to abandon its attempts to take over Exxon or Google and pour its money down domestic rat-holes"

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 06:58 AM 5 Comments

UK house prices fall again...

Bloomberg: U.K. House Prices Fall the Most Since December 2006, HBOS Says

U.K. house prices fell the most in almost a year in November, a sign Britain's residential property boom is fading, a report by HBOS Plc said.

Posted by reeldeal @ 06:52 AM 0 Comments

This is not a good reason to cut BASE rate... by the way, it will not make the situation any better for borrowers

ThisIsNotYourMoney: Alex Brummer: 'Rates must be cut - now!'

"It would now appear that some of Britain's mortgage lenders, particularly in speculative areas such as buy-to-let, may have been as foolish as the Americans and made sizeable loans to people who cannot afford to make the interest rate repayments. Matters have been made worse now that some two million or so cut-price, fixed-rate mortgage deals are coming to an end. The risk must be that, as in America, residential properties will be dumped on the market, dragging down values and discouraging house builders."

Posted by confused76 @ 06:49 AM 3 Comments

1.1% in 30 Days !

BBC News: House Prices Dip 1.1% In November (Halifax)

Short article from the BBC, sure a fuller analysis will follow later in the day.

Posted by umbongo @ 06:19 AM 0 Comments

No Change in Oz

Bloomberg: Australia's Economy Accelerates to 1% on Spending

Gross domestic product, the total of all goods and services produced in Australia, rose 4.3 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from a year earlier, today's report showed. Economists had estimated 4.8 percent annual growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia, headed by Governor Glenn Stevens, today kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.75 percent, citing ``heightened uncertainty about the international outlook'' and rising credit costs.

Posted by stevie dee @ 01:52 AM 0 Comments

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Housing market doomed I tell you

Telegraph: 1.5m will struggle to find an affordable mortgage

Article is really a plea for an IR cut, but inadvertently confirms it will do little good anyway.

Posted by andyh @ 11:29 PM 0 Comments

UK mortgage market could face 30bn squeeze in 2008

UK mortgage market could face 30bn squeeze in 2008: The Times

Homeowners with high loan-to-value ratios on their mortgages will face heavy difficulties refinancing their loans next year and many will face unaffordable rates

Posted by eagle @ 09:46 PM 0 Comments

Property funds wiped out all 2006 gains in 2007 (Laugh laugh)

ThisIsMoney: The worst funds of 2007

"Scottish Widows Investment Partnership (SWIP) UK Real Estate, launched in May last year, is so far the worst performing portfolio of 2006. Since the start of the year to December 3, it has lost over 37% of its investors' cash. The second poorest fund so far this year is another property portfolio, Aberdeen Property Shares which has plummeted by more than 36% in the past 11 months." but property prices only go u... UUUUAAAAAAA AHAHHAHHA HAHAH HAHAHHAH AHHAHAH HA AH

Posted by confused76 @ 08:57 PM 5 Comments

A question that we all really want answers too.

Bloomberg: U.S. Senator Dodd Asks Paulson to Address Goldman Subprime Role

``It is in the best interest of resolving this crisis if Secretary Paulson, who was leading Goldman at the time in question, addresses the concerns raised by Mr. Stein's article,'' Dodd's statement said. ``Failure to do so may be cause for a more formal investigation.''

Posted by stevie dee @ 08:50 PM 0 Comments

looking forward to C76's giggle at this.....priceless!

bbc news: Lenders insist future is 'golden'

"Here in the UK," Mr Pain says, "our gold-standard mortgage market is unreasonably suffering the effects of investor nervousness, about the 'fool's gold' of US sub-prime."

Posted by tick tock @ 07:47 PM 13 Comments

When 'long-term buy' means 'sell right now'

MoneyWeek: When 'long-term buy' means 'sell right now'

"Commercial property groups, who can no longer deny that prices are falling, are mumbling a great deal recently about how commercial property is a great long-term investment. Buy-to-let snake-oil salesmen are saying pretty much the same thing. But as we all know, a solid long-term investment is just a short-term investment thats gone wrong."

Posted by sha @ 07:17 PM 0 Comments

Fears drive the EU to plan Super-Regulator that would wrest control from City

telegraph.co.uk: City under the direct control of Brussels

Pressure for EU 'FSA' after credit crunch Credit crunch fears drive the EU to plan Super-Regulator that would wrest control from City, says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Momentum is building for the creation of an EU-wide "Super Regulator" to oversee financial markets and clamp down on short-term speculators. This could emasculate the Financial Services Authority and bring the City under the direct control of Brussels for the first time

Posted by chris @ 07:01 PM 0 Comments

Turmoil in financial markets deepens

telegraph.co.uk: FSA issues stark warning on mortgage defaults

Britain's top financial regulator has issued a stark warning that more than a million people may find it impossible to refinance their mortgages next year as the turmoil in financial markets deepens.

Posted by chris @ 07:00 PM 0 Comments

BTL, listen to the superwoman!

BusinessSpectator: City 'Superwoman' sees possible housing crash

Britain could be heading for a another housing market crash if thousands of buy-to-let investors ditch their properties as prices tumble, according to top fund manager Nicola Horlick. The City "Superwoman" reckons defaults on buy-to-let mortgages, which make up around a tenth of the market, could be the trigger for a slump as investors cut their losses and let banks repossess their properties if house prices fall. "If you've borrowed 90 per cent of the money and you've only put in 10 per cent yourself but prices fall 12 per cent, it's in your interest just to leave it in the hands of the bank isn't it"

Posted by confused76 @ 06:06 PM 4 Comments

Poll reveals that over 85% belief prices will fall next year

This is Money: Poll: Will Prices Rise or Fall over the next 12 months

An October Poll (still open) on 'This is Money' reveals from a poll of thousands that the vast majority believe the market will fall next year. Another currently open poll on this is money is asking if the UK will go into recession next year - currently 71% say 'yes'.

Posted by meedge @ 05:13 PM 0 Comments

Canada down to 4.25%

Reuters: BoC cut raises chance of BoE move, hits sterling

Sterling weakened versus the Euro and the Dollar on Tuesday as a surprise cut in Canadian interest rates prompted investors to step up bets for a policy easing from the Bank of England on Thursday. "The Bank of Canada -- which is a leading indicator for central banks, as they are probably the most forward-looking bank around -- surprised the market and came out with a cut".

Posted by alan @ 04:21 PM 8 Comments

Mwaaa, Mwaaa, Mwaaa (sound of a bomb raid alarm)

ThisWasMoney: Mortgage lenders told to prepare for storm

"The financial watchdog has warned mortgage lenders to brace themselves for the worst and prepare for credit problems and repossessions as 1.4m borrowers come off fixed rates in 2008."Mr Briault said: 'We know that at least 1.4m short-term fixed rates will end in 2008. 'Many of these borrowers are on relatively high loan-to-value ratios or income multiples and will find it difficult (if not impossible) to refinance their mortgage on favourable terms, which will leave them facing a significantly higher interest rate on their mortgage, which may prove too much for many of them to afford.'

Posted by confused76 @ 04:16 PM 3 Comments

Pity the overdebted consumers

Times: Misery predicted for consumers hooked on credit

"Concern is mounting that millions of consumers who have become dependent on credit are set for financial misery. Lenders are clamping down on who they will lend to and increasing rates on credit cards and personal loans in the face of the ongoing credit crunch."

Posted by drewster @ 03:06 PM 4 Comments

It's going to be a bumpy ride

BBC News: Lenders must prepare for worst

It looks as though the sh1t will be hitting the fan very soon.

Posted by old bear @ 02:47 PM 0 Comments

Council of Mortgage Lenders demands bail out from government

Yahoo: UK government must act to help struggling mortgage borrowers - CML

The Council of Mortgage Lenders has demanded an urgent bail out to halt the increase in arrears on mortgage loans.

Posted by jonb @ 02:29 PM 0 Comments

Professor Miles says HPC = -10%

ThisIsLondon: House prices 'will plummet by 10pc over the next year', says banking chief economist

... but where is Professor Nickell and his "house prices will be 20x average salary in 2020"?

Posted by confused76 @ 12:15 PM 20 Comments

Banks running out of money

FT: Banks to UK corporates: Stop borrowing - now!

LIBOR at record levels and now this. The FT comments "Corporates are being asked not to draw down on long established lines of credit. So the long and the short of it is that banks cant afford to do some of their most basic business." The original CNN article writes "Banks have asked top U.K. corporate clients not to draw on lending facilities to which they are entitled in order to preserve their balance sheets as they approach the financial year end." (http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200712021916DOWJONESDJONLINE000344_FORTUNE5.htm). It's the banks worried about THEIR own balance sheets. 6 months ago banks just handed out the money and wrote IOU's to grateful investors. Now those investors are saying no thanks. Credit Crunch is getting crunchier, its a fine sight ...

Posted by happyrenterz @ 11:20 AM 0 Comments

The [Goldman] team also makes its argument for shorting bullion

Kitco: Slippery Slope Steepens...

"The [Goldman] team also makes its argument for shorting bullion [ as in: now] on the basis of technical analysis. That, the team says, suggests that gold is topping out and that longer-term momentum indicators are turning lower. We see scope for acceleration through $770 to re-test the $600-650 levels prevailing ahead of the summer, the team said."

Will Goldmans be buying the gold once they have panicked investors to sell?

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:02 AM 10 Comments

A big boy did it and ran away Mum !

BBC News: Top bankers deny credit failure

Leading bankers denied that they contributed to the credit crunch. Read it for yourself. It takes some beating and some believing.

Posted by yorkshireman @ 11:01 AM 4 Comments

Or..... how to cover up bad mortgage broker practice at the tax payers expense!!

BBC News: US sub-prime mortgage aid close

"We are working aggressively and quickly... to help financially responsible but struggling homeowners," Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said. Yeah? At the cost of the taxpayer no doubt!!!

Posted by loneranger @ 09:59 AM 1 Comments

BTL scavengers... it's a chain reaction when there is no liquidity to back valuations

ThisWasMoney: Buy-to-let is not dead - just much tougher

"And Lahrie, a former shopkeeper from Sri Lanka, is raising money to add to his portfolio of 150 properties. He says spring, when normal seasonal housing transactions resume, will unearth real weakness." ahha hahha ahhahahh ahhahahhahah

Posted by confused76 @ 09:58 AM 26 Comments

Not like US 1930 and Japan 1990 - worse

financial sense: HOW DEBT MONEY GOES BROKE

The US in the early 1930s and Japan in the early 1990s had a liquidity buffer of domestic savings and a current account surplus. In both cases, mobilizing domestic savings to increase government debt reversed the decline in total debt outstanding in two to three years and interest rates stayed low because savings financed the new debt. As a result, interest charges no longer exceeded debt growth and the need for marginal debtors to liquidate disappeared.

The US is now in a fundamentally different position than it was in 1930 or Japan was in 1990. Once started, cascading cross-defaults consume all debt within an economy. The Fed has only two options: institute a new monetary system with a new currency or return monetary authority to the market and shut down.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:12 AM 14 Comments

Housing bubbles about to burst in the East

MoneyWeek: Why the Eastern European property bubble is set to burst

It's not just the UK in a property bubble. Investors should steer clear of Eastern Europe, unless of course they want the chance to lose their money in a new exotic location...

Posted by mary @ 08:14 AM 9 Comments

BRC figures up 1.2% in November - rate cut hopes dashed

BBC "News": Mixed signs on High Street sales

The BBC tries desperately to downplay the simple fact that the BRC figures are up to angle for a bung to the housing market. No chance matey.

Posted by paul @ 08:14 AM 1 Comments

I think LL TSB is missing the point. The 2006/07 recovery was fueled by the credit conditions which will not repeat. Yes, it was different that time!

Lloyds TSB: UK housing market will slow further in 2008

"This relatively low rate of interest will, in our view, mitigate the potential fall in house price inflation in 2008, even with the credit market turmoil in full swing. And this is a key reason for not panicking; there is ample room for monetary policy to respond to the coming slowdown." I would perhaps agree with this were not for the dominant role of speculative demand in the market, which will make the price swings much larger. At the end of the day the 3.5x salary price average needs to be restored

Posted by confused76 @ 08:13 AM 5 Comments

Wake up guys - this will happen sooner or later

financial sense: THE END OF MONEY

Mr. Lachance reveals the mathematical limit as being the moment that new debt creation falls short of existing interest charges. When that day comes, a wave of defaults will sweep through the system. Which is why our fiscal and monetary authorities are doing everything they can to keep money/debt creation robust.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:11 AM 16 Comments

But Tesco says that a rate cut is needed ... ?

BBC "News": Tesco bucking slower sales trend

Someone in Tesco's PR department should be shot for sending what is euphemistically called a "mixed message". In other words, cocking up press release dates. Or is it that Tesco is still not making enough money, and a rate cut is needed so that they can set up even more stores?

Posted by paul @ 08:11 AM 0 Comments

Lawsuit anyone?

NYTimes: The Long and Short of It at Goldman Sachs

So Goldman's was selling securities to investors and then turning round and shorting them!? What is this except fraud? How would you feel if you were sold something which was labelled one thing (in fact you are promised it is one thing) and then the salesperson goes and bets against you for being stupid enough to buy this thing? You'd want blood!

Posted by lvmreader @ 07:24 AM 5 Comments

It doesn't matter

guardian: Market interest rate jumps to nine-year high

BoE impotent. BTLers rolling off fixed rates - finished. Merry Xmas prudent savers!!

Posted by inbreda @ 07:14 AM 2 Comments

Tesco Petrol is up at 102.9

Reuters: Tesco calls for rate cut

Tesco Plc said on Tuesday that shoppers were being more cautious and the Bank of England should cut interest rates "sooner rather than later," as it saw little sign of inflation. "Our firm view is that we should be seeing a move down in interest rates sooner rather than later," Finance Director Andrew Higginson told Reuters.

Posted by alan @ 06:45 AM 28 Comments

High st Slump is just the strart..

Yahoo: Sir Philip Green Tells Business Expert Jeff Randall That High Street Faces Christmas Slump

Philip Green warns of christmas slump riight accross the high st. This does not bode well for homeowners.

Posted by doomberger @ 06:34 AM 1 Comments

Bartering Society getting closer? Your house for 2 Apples?

AP: Yahoo, EBay Team Up in Online Auction

I have put this article in as I see this has far reaching ramifications long term. I can see one day where you can buy and sell your home in an online auction at Yahoo or eBay. Furthermore, like with this housing market, I believe the same fall in share value will happen to Google too. I say this as the bankers that have given us the 2008 housing crash, have promoted Google tremendously, and on their track record for integrity, and accuracy. Google is a sure bet! (said with a pinch of sarcasm).

Posted by stevie dee @ 05:03 AM 0 Comments

How much did Garfield get paid for this mess?

FT: Treasury draws up Rock contingency plan

Northern Rock is thought to have drawn up plans if the bid process comes unstuck although a person familiar with the situation said the bank was concentrating its efforts on the bid process. One of the prerequisites of allowing the bank to fall into administration or nationalising it would be to pay depositors their money back as soon as possible.

Posted by stevie dee @ 04:41 AM 0 Comments

Don't worry folks! This pill is much better than the last one I sold you.

Wall Street Journal: Paulson Urges Congress To Act on Loan Woes

Sen. Chris Dodd (D., Conn.), a presidential hopeful and chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, reacted sharply to Mr. Paulson's putting the onus on Congress to act, saying in a written statement that the secretary "strained credulity" by claiming the administration has done enough to stop "predatory lending." "The administration has repeatedly failed to use the tools at its disposal to protect home buyers from abusive lending," said Mr. Dodd, who himself has been criticized for failing to act on a House-passed bill to expand eligibility for Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance.

Posted by stevie dee @ 04:22 AM 0 Comments

A question: Did they honestly not see this coming? As these Bankers & Financiers were selling this crap in the first place. 1989! more like 1929!

FT: Credit squeeze piles on the pain

Martin Allen, analyst at Morgan Stanley, said: We believe the sharp fall in confidence in the UK property market to levels only last seen in 1990 supports our view that the current downturn is more like 1989 than 1998.

Posted by stevie dee @ 04:11 AM 1 Comments

On the ground, the real economic factors are still very bad,

theaustralian.news.com.au: Rate rises hit borrowers on city fringes

Decrease Increase Print Page: Print Anthony Klan | November 29, 2007 AS many as 5 per cent of households in some southwest Sydney suburbs are more than one month behind in their mortgage payments as rising interest rates hit the hip pockets of lower income earners. A study of one million Australian home loans by Fitch Ratings has found households most likely to be in arrears on their mortgages were located in the outer suburbs of the capital cities, with six of the worst seven suburbs in Sydney's west and southwest.

Posted by chris @ 12:01 AM 0 Comments

Monday, December 3, 2007

Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

Prime London properties losing 5,500 per month

Firstrung: London house prices fall by 22K since August

The volume of prime London property for sale rises to record levels in October, up 54.6% on last year and up 12.9% on last month (looks like the sheeple have started panicking). Average prime London property prices fall for the third consecutive month, down 0.8%, wiping over 22,000 off the average sale price of a prime London home since August 2007. ***** Now if that continues, we are looking at nearly 70,000 over the year - pretty much wipes out the "1,600 per month rise" the press were bleating about last year. Ahhh - it's nice to be proved right. Sit back and enjoy the ride people.

Posted by uncle chris @ 08:33 PM 15 Comments

Debt burden creates mental instability.

IC Wales: How debt can effect mental health

The government will have to plough more momey into the natonal health service as half the nation suffer mental health problems when the property market crashes. Bring on those "little helpers" princes Diana would have said. The UK will be "pill popping" big time soon!

Posted by doomberger @ 08:27 PM 0 Comments

Armegeddon!

The Daily Reckoning: This is Gonna Hurt.

The future is looking bleak, house repossessions, spiraling debt, householders will be throwing themselves of buildings soon. The samaritans wont be able to cope.

Posted by doomberger @ 08:13 PM 0 Comments

"Missery" for Oxforshire home owners.

Oxford Mail: Warning over house market crash

Negative equity, repossessions and missery could face Oxforshire home owners says Vince Cable.

Posted by doomberger @ 06:29 PM 8 Comments

UK housing crash almost "certain" !

London Stock exchange.: UK "almost certainly" facing housing market crash

Its looking bleak for the UK economy if the UK housing sector crashes which will spread far and wide. Could be the start of the fear fear scenario when prices drop which creates fear and the snowball effect begins.

Posted by doomberger @ 06:24 PM 6 Comments

US woes could spread to the UK

yahoo: Stocks Fall on Economic, Mortgage Unease

Fear of more morgage missery in the US as the economy goes into decline. What starts in the US could spread to the UK. The tightening up of credit here is just the start.

Posted by doomberger @ 06:18 PM 0 Comments

eVersion of what was in the Daily Mail this morning

This is money: US recession would hit britain

Dr Nouriel Roubini, an economist at New York University, added to the gloom as he warned of a risk of 'generalised meltdown of the financial system of a severity and magnitude like we have never observed before'.

Posted by andy @ 04:55 PM 0 Comments

Uhuuuu... I smell BTLoser roast this Christmas, ho ho ho

ThisWasMoney: Surge in production dashes rate-cut hopes

Hopes of an interest-rate cut before Christmas were all but killed off today after a sharp rebound in output from British factories. Then also gas prices are set to rocket 15% this winter... a-haaaaaaa (this is not a laughter, but means fake surprise)

Posted by confused76 @ 04:15 PM 8 Comments

Keep building - Stack em high sell em cheap

Yorkshire Evening Post: Leeds at the crossroads

Andrew Wells, of Allsop, the country's biggest residential auctioneers, warned that the sale of around half the apartments in the heart of the city those completed and currently under construction would leave sellers thousands of pounds out of pocket. He said a two-bedroom flat in one of the earliest residential developments, Aspect 14, on the outskirts of the city centre, was bought for between 160,000 and 190,000 around three years ago but was recently auctioned for just 115,000.

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 03:45 PM 3 Comments

Agents just can't keep out of trouble

24dash.com: Estate agent prosecution first in fly-boarding crackdown

In a ground breaking case for Hackney, a local estate agent has been prosecuted for fly-boarding. Could this be the beginning of the end for the blight of the estate agent's board?

Posted by landedgentry @ 03:38 PM 0 Comments

More misery for mortgage sector but

FairInvest: Buy to Let continues to grow

Landlords are celebrating a tidy profit as the buy-to-let sector soars. According to Paragon's October Buy-to-let Index, strong demand for rented accommodation has pushed the average rental income generated by landlords to 10.2 per cent higher than a year ago.

Posted by little professor @ 03:23 PM 25 Comments

BoE won't be riding to the rescue this month for overstretched BTL landlords

FT: Expectations for rate cut fade

Manufacturing activity unexpectedly strengthened in November while higher commodity prices drove factory gate inflation to a near record rate, according to a survey that will dampen hopes of a cut in interest rates at this weeks meeting of the monetary policy committee.

Posted by richc @ 03:08 PM 0 Comments

Interesting graphs of property sales and prices

propertyladder.co.uk: House sold prices

This isn't an article but figures speak for themselves

Posted by waiting 4 a crash @ 03:07 PM 9 Comments

Soaring LIBOR rates to halt lending.

yahoo: Market lending rates soar!

LIBOR rates are going through the roof as the credit crunch bites. This will slow lending and force up mortgage rates.

Posted by doomberger @ 02:49 PM 0 Comments

even paypal & ebay are not immune

Yahoo: PayPal customers' cash exposed to illiquid assets

Will getting rid of unwanted xmas pressys be the same if paypal sink under the weight of SIVs??? Will you be able to sell that woolly jumper with santa on the front?

Posted by mark @ 01:07 PM 0 Comments

Market completely swamped by supply

CityWire: Housing starts growth offers bargains for buy-to-let investors

"There should be a raft of new apartments coming onto the market at knock-down prices offering buy-to-let investors plenty of opportunities to pick up a bargain." supply shortage, what supply shortage!?

Posted by confused76 @ 12:37 PM 17 Comments

Impending destruction of US economy from housing crisis

SOTT.net: Signs Economic Commentary for 3 December 2007

Encouraging week, in some ways, even if it is only a temporary pause on the death spiral. Not only did gold and oil drop sharply and stocks rise, but plans to help people avoid losing their houses in foreclosure were announced by U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson.It seems that the ruling groups are worried about political problems arising from the housing crisis. There has been so much neglect of the problem for so long that any acknowledgment is welcome.

Posted by cybervigilantes @ 12:31 PM 0 Comments

Builder dumps homes at 40% of book value

CNN: Builder dumps homes in Morgan Stanley deal

In another sign of the collapse of the market for new homes [in the USA], builder Lennar Corp. has dumped a portfolio of 11,000 properties for 40 percent of their previously-stated book value. It is selling the properties for $525 million, even though it said their book value as of Sept. 30 stood at $1.3 billion.

Posted by smc @ 12:18 PM 0 Comments

Vince Cable "... almost certainly on the point of a big crash"

BBC 5 Live wake-up to money: Vince Cable "...almost certainly on the point of a big crash

From today's (Monday) wake up to money. 14 mins 15 secs in. Vince Cable dicussus his proposal for a strategy for repossessions to avoid the misery of the last crash. He says "... almost certainly on the point of a big crash..." They then get some CML cheerleader to come on. Brilliant stuff. Looks like the Lib Dems have realised that the "miracle economy" is not what it seems, and has been propped up by cheap money, massive mortages with the underlying been an overpriced asset.

Posted by doomwatch @ 11:01 AM 3 Comments

More losers

Morningstar UK: Property Funds: Is the worst still to come?

"After posting strong gains for the past five years, property funds have stumbled badly of late and investors have started to pull their money out."

Posted by a womble @ 10:53 AM 0 Comments

Its too late to stop the housing crash

MoneyWeek: It's too late to stop the housing crash

So-called "experts" are pleading for a rate cut to halt a property crash. But it won't make any difference - the UK housing market is falling, and the Bank of England is powerless to stop it

Posted by mary @ 09:16 AM 23 Comments

Reality - for some it's far, far away

FT: Equity investors are still in denial

Quite a few people have been asking lately why on earth the equity market is so high, but I make no apology for joining them. If the Dow can rise 540 points in two days as it did last week something rather odd is going on.

Posted by wojtek @ 07:59 AM 0 Comments

More pleading, ugh, I can't watch! Some amazing comments at the end though, it shows the VIs are completely out-of-touch!

Scotsman: 'Dear Mervyn, you must cut rates now' - Scottish business

SCOTLAND'S leading independent economic development body has written to the head of the Bank of England demanding an immediate cut in interest rates. The Scottish Council for Development and Industry (SCDI), which represents some 1,200 members, is calling on a cut of "at least" a quarter point at this week's rate-setting meeting.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 07:52 AM 1 Comments

Cut and Paste Journalism & Desperation all rolled into one from the Telegraph ?

Telegraph: Pleas for rate cut as interbank loans dive

"Has the economy suddenly and totally fallen out of bed? We don't know yet, and it would be dangerous at this stage to bet it has. There is a risk rates will have to go up next year, not down," he said. - No the economy fell out of bed years ago ? Credit conditions have tightened abruptly since then, driving Libor back to crisis levels of 6.60pc. The Nationwide house price index dropped 0.8pc in November, the steepest fall in 12 years. - So what and good, that's what most people want ! Really, this article is all over the place, getting desperate now, Shadow MPC my @rse !

Posted by darren @ 06:54 AM 44 Comments

Into the Meat Grinder!!!

Telegraph: Credit crunch alert over UK economy

"We believe house prices will fall 10pc next year, with the possibility of further declines into 2009. Investors should beware those stocks exposed to a sharp slowdown in housing activity." "Morgan Stanley has advised clients to step back from Britain's debt-laden and badly managed economy."

Posted by sovietuk @ 06:28 AM 2 Comments

Come on someone, show some interest in this dead horse - have a heart!

BBC "News": Treasury 'wants Rock bidding war'

Chancellor Alistair Darling has asked troubled lender Northern Rock to consider rival bids, the Financial Times reports.

Posted by paul @ 06:21 AM 3 Comments

Quick everyone, PANIC!

BBC "News": London property market slowing

It's all going pear-shaped for those Property Porn Fiends at the BBC. London house prices dropped at their fastest rate in more than two years last month, according to the latest figures from the Land Registry.

Posted by paul @ 06:19 AM 4 Comments

Crash that 'won't happen here' looms large

The Guardian: Crash that 'won't happen here' looms large

Larry writes "The UK is facing at best a painful correction in the property market and at worst a full-blown crash that could wipe about 50,000 off the value of the average home over the next few years. Why? Because none of the explanations for the UK being a special case really stack up".

Posted by becky @ 06:14 AM 13 Comments

Indoctrinating the next generation of consumers

Times: Why house prices are of critical importance to the economy

Economic briefings to sixth formers on house prices. Apparently this articles idea of an (unlikely) severe correction is 10% ... Well that's this years increases taken care of, pity about the other nine years.

Posted by johnycoldears @ 06:12 AM 0 Comments

Credit crunch solves pension crisis

Independent: Pension deficits shrink by more than 90 per cent in a year

Absolutely fascinating. The credit boom did not only create an unsustainable housing boom but was a major cause of the country's pension crisis by making corporate bond yields unattractive. Apparently people are now investing in lower yield/less risky corporate bonds and pension fund deficits are as low as 1%. Wow.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 06:06 AM 0 Comments

Bootle puts the Boot in

telegraph: Housing market on brink

Good dissection of what is likely to happen by long time bear finally proved right.

Posted by andyh @ 01:00 AM 0 Comments

Sunday, December 2, 2007

The countryside is AWASHHH with property for sale. MWAUUU AHA HAH

Primelocation: God bless them for the most accurate and timely price index

Property sites ve got so much real-time info at their disposal and so nicely and innocently tell us that it is all gone pear shaped. "The prime country market is AWASH with properties for sale, with stock levels up 40.0% on last year and up 5.5% on last month. Average prime country property prices fall 0.3% in October, with no price growth reported since July 07. The South East is hit hardest, with prices falling by A RECORD 1.3% on last month."

Posted by confused76 @ 10:23 PM 10 Comments

Total meltdown

Rightmove: Welcome to the new Rightmove!

You couldn't make it up!!!!!!! I love this quote, funniest thing I've heard for years!!!: "Welcome to the new look Rightmove.co.uk. We hope you enjoy the new website as much as we enjoyed creating it!" Confused76? Up for a chuckle?!

Posted by planning4acrash @ 09:20 PM 2 Comments

An open letter to Mervyn King from the Editor

Scotsman: Vote for a rate cut or not at all

A massive squeeze is now under way. In these conditions it is hard to see how inflation concerns should override worries about the current economic downturn. There has been an astonishing drop in mortgage approvals, pointing to the possibility of a big house price fall. LIBOR has shot up to 6.6%. Yes, RPI is still uncomfortably high at 4.2%, but this includes housing. As prices cool, this will fall to below 2.5%. If you aren't planning to cut rates on Thursday, do the country a favour and take the day off.

Posted by little professor @ 09:18 PM 7 Comments

Property websh*tes in panick!

Primelocation: Try out the brand new primelocation.com!!!

Prime location wouldn't be worried about its share price now would it? The first revamp in years, no dear, this won't save you!!

Posted by planning4acrash @ 09:17 PM 0 Comments

Going, Going, Gone off a cliff

The Market Oracle: UK Housing Slump Gains Momentum as Properties Fail to Sell at Auction

Home owners failing to sell properties through the traditional estate agency route are increasingly opting for the chance of a quick sale offered by Auction houses up and down Britain. However the number of sales being achieved has plummeted, even after worried sellers rush to accept offers prior to the action. The resulting supply overhang will result in further sharp falls in the housing market that will accumulate over the coming year as home owners behind the housing curve are forced to repeatedly cut price expectations.

Posted by in the delhi @ 08:06 PM 11 Comments

OPEC - Actually we quite like Oil bloody expensive! No descending rope ladder for inflation then!

Bloomberg: OPEC Won't Boost Crude Output, Algeria's Khelil Says

OPEC won't increase crude-oil supply to world markets to meet rising demand for energy during the winter because stocks of fuel are already ``high,'' Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil said. ``We will not increase output unless there is a need in the market,'' Khelil told reporters during a mining conference in Algiers today. ``For the moment there is no need. Stocks are high.''

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:01 PM 1 Comments

I feel sorry for them... MWAUU AH HAHHA HAH HAHHAH

Times: The bonus bubble bursts

The Centre for Economics and Business Research has predicted payouts to drop by 20% and expects City firms to cut 6,500 jobs. Savills estate agency estimates that the amount of bonus cash flowing into prime London property and into second and third homes will fall by 60% to 2 billion in the coming year. UHUUUUU. The agency expects house prices in central London to drop 3% by the end of the year and 4% by next March. The Land Registry said last week that prices in the capital fell by 0.6% in October. AHAHHH

Posted by confused76 @ 06:07 PM 3 Comments

And we're still saying "It won't be too bad, honest"

Der Spiegel: Why America's Currency Is the World's Problem

Another article from Spiegel which takes a far deeper look at the issues. It's dated 30th November, but ECB observations have only just hit the UK mainstream press...

Posted by growler @ 04:47 PM 0 Comments

The Employers are speaking!

Bloomberg: Unemployment May Rise, Manufacturing Slow: U.S. Economy Preview

They say never listen what a person says, but judge them on their actions. Or simply put, "actions speak louder than words". Not a phrase shared with politicians.

Posted by stevie dee @ 04:30 PM 0 Comments

Forecasts changing the hour - in a southerly direction !!!!

Telegraph: The credit crunch could crush the euro

"The credit crunch is hammering the US, which now faces a likely recession. Things dont look great for the UK either; here growth could plunge to 1 per cent next year." "When buyers' access to credit is hobbled, it is right to ask just where the demand will come from to keep property prices firm." -"Yes Sir your house will soon be worth nothing more than a pile of bricks"

Posted by sovietuk @ 03:44 PM 18 Comments

Let's go to work at Debt slaves R us just to pay the mortgage

Firstrung: Rise in demand for part time work due to increased mortgage repayments

Curbing festive spending was the top choice for homeowners looking to find additional funds, with over three quarters of under 25's admitting they will be tightening the purse strings this Christmas. Some homeowners will be going to greater lengths to meet rising payments, as one in six re-mortgagers (18 per cent) plans to take on extra part time work to help meet increased costs, with this figure rising to one in four among under 35's

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:10 PM 3 Comments

Learn the future from the past: media coverage at the onset of the 90's crash

Oracle: UK Housing Market on Brink of Price Crash - Media Lessons from 1989!

"The UK Housing market is teetering on the brink of a crash led by the buy to let sector investors jumping ship. But the messages coming from the major banks and UK central bank are still benign. In many ways the situation is reminiscent of the initial stages of the the early 1990's property bust, which was also accompanied by soothing statements that ignored the facts on the ground as this article will illustrate."

Posted by confused76 @ 12:52 PM 7 Comments

Another week of apocalyptic news

Firstrung: Firstrung, first time buyers, the week in focus

The biggest news the Firstrung team sifted through this past week was the news that mortgage approvals (for house purchases) have fallen by 30% vis a vis last year. This was simply stunning news. It must be acknowledged that this dramatic fall is as a direct result of five interest rate increases and does not take into account the credit crunch and the follow on disappearance of up to 90% of specific BTL mortgage product, 75% non conforming and 40% of mortgage product in total. The figures available for next month will be abysmal for the mortgage industry. If the 'trend' is continuous we could possibly witness the worst monthly approval figures for a decade.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:47 PM 0 Comments

Measured views on credit crunch and housing

Observer: Crunch homes in on the housing market

Some thoughtful and realistic observations on the credit crunch, challenging some of the cliches trotted out by estate agents and GCSE economists.

Posted by letthemfall @ 12:25 PM 0 Comments

Slash, slash rates... this time it will not save you, dumb property believers!!

Times: Locked in the property fund trap

THOUSANDS of investors could find themselves trapped in poorly performing commercial property funds as investment companies are forced to freeze withdrawals and impose punitive exit penalties, experts have warned. And next are the BTLosers, roast for Xmas... Ho, ho, ho!

Posted by confused76 @ 12:01 PM 34 Comments

Please cut rates screams the Express.

Express: 100 DAYS TO HALT HOUSING CRASH

BRITAIN has just 100 days to avoid a catastrophic fall in house prices, with effects that will last for years. Unless interest rates come down in the next three months, home owners face seeing the value of their homes plunge on a scale not seen since the property recession of the early Nineties Leading financial commentators fear that any crash could create a crisis like the one that has paralysed the United States property market, with homes being repossessed as mortgage borrowers fail to repay loans. Ray Boulger, of mortgage broker John Charcol, said that if the Bank of England failed to deal with the situation, any small early-year blip could spiral into a full-blown property crash.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 09:57 AM 20 Comments

Crash Gordon - Failure of the Universe

Sunday Express: 100 DAYS TO HALT HOUSING CRASH

Dr. Hans Zarkov: "Crash there are only 100 days left to Save the Earth" Dale Arden: "Go Crash Go!" But Crash can't leap into action having slipped a disk.

Posted by mike livingstone @ 09:55 AM 0 Comments

Ireland does not look like a buy anymore!

Yahoo: Ireland sees bigger 2007 & 2008 exchequer deficits

An end to Ireland's decade long property boom during which house prices more than quadrupled, and the associated slowing in housing output, is expected to not only dampen economic expansion but also cap years of rapid growth in tax revenue

Posted by mark @ 09:35 AM 0 Comments

So is Jonathan Hunt of Foxtons in the gunsights?

Times: US says it has right to kidnap British citizens

AMERICA has told Britain that it can kidnap British citizens if they are wanted for crimes in the United States. A senior lawyer for the American government has told the Court of Appeal in London that kidnapping foreign citizens is permissible under American law because the US Supreme Court has sanctioned it. The admission will alarm the British business community after the case of the so-called NatWest Three, bankers who were extradited to America on fraud charges. More than a dozen other British executives, including senior managers at British Airways and BAE Systems, are under investigation by the US authorities and could face criminal charges in America.

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:33 AM 6 Comments

Pleasssse cut interest rates

Sunday Express: 100 Days To Stop Housing Crash

The squeeze is really on now - talk of possible higher IR has got through to the mainstream. Express says - unless IRs are reduced in next 100 days the housing market will go into meltdown. They acknowledge that BoE is under presssure on numerous fronts where prices are rising. Real classic of a frontpage - don't worry they didn't forget Maddie! The worlds greatest newspaper - hmmm!!

Posted by flapjack @ 09:01 AM 0 Comments

On the Rocks

Telegraph: Deutsche threat on Virgin Rock bid

Deutsche Bank, one of the three institutions lined up to back Virgin's bid for Northern Rock, is threatening to walk away from the deal amid claims that the bank has "serious issues" with the takeover proposal from Sir Richard Branson's group.

Posted by sovietuk @ 08:55 AM 1 Comments

Sensible comments: expect base rate to rise not to go down

Herald: Bank likely to increase rates despite signs of a downturn

King warned of "rather uncomfortable" times ahead, with a "big risk" the credit squeeze could intensify. He said the "sheer uncertainty" and fear of what might still be found on the balance sheets of US banks is driving inter-bank lending back up to rates not seen since the height of the crunch. But his key words were: "In recent months, the near-term outlook for both inflation and growth has become less benign." King will not be outvoted again this time!

Posted by confused76 @ 07:37 AM 6 Comments

Saturday, December 1, 2007

David Smith is a disgrace

Times: Rate cut urged to end the gloom

"Minford former adviser to Margaret Thatcher called for an urgent 0.75% cut" Three of Londons busiest shopping streets Oxford, Regent and Bond streets staged a Super Saturday yesterday, banning vehicles in an effort to attract more customers."The Engineering Employers Federation will report tomorrow that industry is still enjoying good demand, but that members are concerned" AHHHHAHHH AHHAHH HAHHAH

Posted by confused76 @ 10:07 PM 13 Comments

Rate cut ?? Desperation !!

Times Online: Rate Cut Urged To End Gloom

Not an untypical David Smith piece !! "PRESSURE is growing on the Bank of England to cut interest rates this week as gloom over the economy intensifies. Two of Britains best-known economists, Patrick Minford and Tim Congdon, say the Banks monetary policy committee (MPC) needs to slash rates to get the banking system working and head off a sharp downturn." Demonstrates that we really do have NOTHING else to save our economy !!

Posted by renting&waiting @ 10:02 PM 0 Comments

Sit back, relax and watch the show... a perfect storm is hitting the UK house market

Times: Get set for the big mortgage freeze

Lenders have declared a mortgage freeze as soon as they found out (surprise, surprise!!) that house prices can go down as well as up. Banks ask for bigger deposits and subject customers to stringent income checks as they became cautious about whom they give money to (uuhuuuh, about time!) Banks raised tracker for new borrowers and economists (ahahahha) warned the deals are unlikely to get cheaper even if the BoE chops interest rates. Nationwide will put up its headline two-year tracker from 5.68% to 5.83% on Tuesday. Ho! ho! ho!

Posted by confused76 @ 09:53 PM 4 Comments

Credit crunch far reaching implications.

Financial Post: Credit woes expand worldwide

More on the investment pool freeze in the US. As the credit crunch expands worldwide two more UK banks could be in trouble.

Posted by doomberger @ 04:35 PM 0 Comments

Scotlands Empty Houses

Press and Journal: 18000 empty homes in highlands

Its not just in the south that there are thousands of empty homes 'WHAT IS THE REAL STORY'???

Posted by johnnyp @ 01:58 PM 12 Comments

US schools fund "frozen" update.

Realestatetalk.: Florida Schools Struggle to Pay Teachers Amid Freeze

A more in depth article on the freezing of the schools funds as a consequence of investing in SIV's !

Posted by doomberger @ 01:00 PM 0 Comments

Property bubble - stagnation or burst?

The Times: Question of the Week: should I sell my house now?

Anne Ashworth repeating the unsupported assertion that this time the bubble will stagnate, not burst

Posted by monty032 @ 12:32 PM 10 Comments

US debt has far reaching implications..

Bloomberg news.: Florida schools struggle to pay teachers amid freeze.

The crisis in the US has far reaching implications and is set to get worse before it gets better. A florida schools fund had to be frozen yesterday following a run on the fund when it became clear that "The Florida fund had invested $2 billion in structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, " ! "The Jefferson County school district was forced to take out a short-term loan to cover payroll for the 220 teachers and other employees in the system after $2.7 million it held in the pool was frozen yesterday"

Posted by doomberger @ 12:28 PM 2 Comments

House supply shortage... balooney!!

ThisWasMoney: Empty houses outstrip new-homes targets

"A report by Halifax bank says although figures show 289,000 homes sitting empty for six months or longer, just half a dozen orders have been granted to take control of empty properties since new rules were introduced in July 2006. The number of homes empty for longer than six months far outstrips the Government's revised housebuilding targets of 240,000 new properties per year" Gordon, Ivette, and other pathetic incompetent politicians, TAKE NOTICE!

Posted by confused76 @ 11:31 AM 25 Comments

Now betting "surge" on a fall

FT: Hedge your bets on the price of a des res

Private investors are hunting for ways to hedge their exposure to residential property, as a decade of strong house price growth rapidly draws to a close. Banks are reporting a surge in interest from wealthy investors wanting to bet on property prices falling in the next one or two years.

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:50 AM 9 Comments

Where has all our money gone?

BBC: Rock borrowing - the facts

Robert Prestons blog which is factually based for a change, and contains links to some interesting info I have not seen before, but someone should be asking where taxpayers money is being spent and how much we're earning for it and what the real quality of the security is?

Posted by enuii @ 10:46 AM 3 Comments

How low will this man go?

BBC News: PM's wife urges children to read

Article itself has nothing to do with HPC - obviously! But I thought it odd that his wife has an article out at the end of his worst week in politics... ever. Especially since I haven't seen or heard Sarah Brown do any other media stuff [but maybe I'm just not very observant]. I heard the item on the news and when I looked it up on the net I was flabberghasted. Just look at that smile on his face!

Posted by cornishman @ 07:57 AM 6 Comments

BTL, the UK subprime, is dead in the water

Times: Buy-to-let landlords fear they may have to sell as sub-prime mortgage deals dry up

1,383 sub-prime buy-to-let deals available in July, now 149. Only four unknown lenders remain in the market. investors who need to remortgage may no longer be offered attractive rates and will be forced to pay the standard variable rate, pushing up their monthly outgoings by hundreds of pounds when rental yields are flat. The EA Savills: Novice landlords might sell up when the going gets tough and if the cost of mortgages rise. Without a similar increase in rents they might not be able to make it pay" Yeah, tell me something new!!

Posted by confused76 @ 07:51 AM 3 Comments

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