Thursday, December 13, 2007

RICS: worst results in 8 years

House prices fall for fourth month in a row

House prices in the UK fell for the fourth month in a row in November, says RICS. Of the Chartered Surveyors questioned, 40.6% more reported a fall rather than a rise in house prices, up from a downwardly revised 23.4% in October. Unsold inventory meanwhile jumped another 8.7% following last month's rise of 9.7% - which means the ratio of completed sales compared to unsold property on the market fell to 33%

Posted by little professor @ 09:19 AM (1057 views)
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11 thoughts on “RICS: worst results in 8 years

  • David Smith's Sub Prime. . . says:

    At what point are we invited to the party at the Land Registry?

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  • It’s all going pear shaped and no-one can hide it any more.

    I hope Kirtsy Allslopp is busy chewing her hat.

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  • “The recent credit crunch continues to hit confidence in the market. However, while underlying economic fundamentals remain sound and the labour market remains strong, large falls in prices remain unlikely,”
    Said Jeremy Leaf, whilst preparing to go to Xmas lunch with Fionnula Early and Martin Ellis.
    After lunch they stopped off at M&S to buy a new hat for Kirsty, as a laugh.

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  • “Sales generally are looking very sick indeed,” said Trevor Kent, an estate agent from Gerrards Cross. “One expects this to be the case before Christmas, but this is unprecedented.”

    No Trevor, it is not unprecedented. But, then again, you are probably an 19-year old who doesn’t remember the early 90s and belong to the “house prices can only ever go up” generation.

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  • It’s worth following the link from the BBC site to RICS the November 2007 pdf market survey to read the surveyors market comments (http://www.rics.org/Newsroom/Economiccommentary/hms_r_131207.htm).
    Some predictable bullish remarks, but on the whole things are looking fragile. For example, “Major slowdown in the market and unlikely to improve until prices are probably 20% lower than at present. Hard time ahead.” Paul Morris Esq FRICS, Bill Jackson Estate Agents, Hereford.

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  • crash bandicoot says:

    “underlying economic fundamentals remain sound”

    This is with central banks shovelling in money by the £Bn. I would hate to see what his idea of unsound fundamentals are.

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  • “Sales generally are looking very sick indeed,” said Trevor Kent, an estate agent from Gerrards Cross.

    “One expects this to be the case before Christmas, but this is unprecedented.

    “It doesn’t look as if it is going to be very promising for the next few months – buyers have got no confidence, sellers have got no confidence,” he said.

    I thought that “unprecedented” meant it hadn’t happened before, silly me.

    Perhaps Mr Kent was still in nappies in the early 1990’s.

    And as for “next few month”, how about “next few years”?

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  • crash bandicoot:
    They’ll keep harping on about “strong fundamentals” until the unemployment rate starts to tick up. However unemployment is a lagging indicator – companies don’t shed staff until they are sure they won’t need them again because of the high cost of finding and training new staff. Also there’s a difference between joblessness and unemployment: in the past I’ve known people to be out of work for several months but never bother signing on the dole because of the stigma associated with it. Lastly of course, unemployment statistics can be cooked just like any other government statistics.
    When I look at the economic fundamentals, I see massive household debt, an economy reliant on a rocky (pun intended) banking sector and ever-rising house prices. Not exactly strong fundamentals!

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  • drewster – because of this falling off the page after 10 comments thing i wanted to reiterate what i said in response to your “disagreement” with me – the reason i say “disagreement” is because actually i think we concur…heres what i just posted:

    Drewster – i think either you or possibly i are not quite understanding this dead cat bounce thing. Having said that I think we are on the same page – more or less. Firstly i totally agree 2005 was a fall against the trend – but thats not a dead cat bounce. My belief is now we are in a prolonged fall where upblips will be against the trend. A dead cat bounce is a shallow rise against a previous fall (i’ll check wikipedia – :”A dead cat bounce is a term used by traders to describe a pattern wherein a moderate rise in the price of a stock follows a spectacular fall”)

    1. Falls as now and falling by around 20-30% (although realistically thats a guesstimate – if that makes any sense!).
    2. Rise or at least stopping the falls – the dead cat bounce. (PERCEPTION will be ahh that was a blip against the main upward trend so NOW is the time to invest) i.e. AFTER its been perceived that the fall has gone too far.
    3. Plunge as people finally realise this aint the same as before.

    In terms of timeframes its way too early to say, but my guess is this wont be a short sharp collapse. If it is then there wont be a point 2!! Relative to your point re mortgages – yes i agree but thats NOW – after 1. it may be a different story.

    Sorry for hi-jacking this news blog!! I just dont want anyone to think i’m anything other than an uber-bear!!!

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  • to clarify – point 2. will NOT take out the previous high. This is just a traders thing, a move against the trend because the market is “Oversold”.

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  • Not a mention on the BBC lunchtime news.

    Although the BBC website does quote ‘58% of members report a fall and only 2% report a rise’

    Hurrah

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