Saturday, December 15, 2007
Ramping, after a quick buy?
Fidelity manager puts faith in property stocks as he says share values will build
There will always be people who think they can influence the market...so this guy has just bought and is now trying to stimulate growth: ''Anthony Bolton, the veteran fund manager at Fidelity International, is calling the bottom for property stocks and considering buying battered-down shares in housebuilders and retail companies. ...Mr Bolton said that he had bought into a number of well-known UK property stocks in recent weeks. News of Mr Bolton’s strategy came as a report revealed that prices of commercial property buildings had suffered a record one-month fall in November, twice as steep as the worst monthly price declines felt in 1990, at the depth of the last commercial property recession.'
Posted by hpwatcher @ 07:05 AM (835 views)
7 thoughts on “Ramping, after a quick buy?”
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confused76 says:
Property stocks and banking stocks will eventually go up, but it is dangerous to call the bottom
In any case nothing to do with the residential house prices which have yet to start their plunge
But you d expect so, since house prices are far “stickier”
techieman says:
i agree with confused – particularly in the US. Remember when there’s blood on the streets thats the time to get in – I saw an overlay of the dollar index and the ETF housebuilders charts they both look temporarily bottomy. Expect intervention at times like this to squeeze shorts (talking about the dollar obviously) . Fundamentally the outlook may be unchanged i.e. bearish but these markets never fall in a straight line.
Ntone606 says:
Trying to hit the bottom in any market is a very expensive habit. It’s much safer to wait for the trend to change and then buy, rather than potentially catching a falling knife.
Bootstrap says:
Ahh it is this very kind of sporadic optimism that initiates the occasional ‘dead cat bounce’ during a fall!
Jimmy_joe says:
Anthony Bolton is no idiot, he called the recent top of the equities market at about the right time (and I don’t think he’s one of those who continually called it) so if he says it’s the bottom for commercial property then don’t expect it to fall more than another few per cent.
planning4acrash says:
Ntone, you are so right. There is little point buying as an investment until property prices start rising in line with inflation once more. (In reality, they should rise much more because you have interest charges on-top!). So even when property prices stop falling, they are still falling so long as inflation is still here!! (If we have a deflationary spiral? Well, then falling house prices may be ok, so long as house prices do not fall more than inflation!!). It is far too early to call a good buying condition now, because we don’t know for sure whether this bubble will be resolved by inflation or deflation.
techieman says:
Bootstrap everytime i mention dead cat bounce euro bear and drewster say the DCB was in 2005!!! [whereas im saying to expect a fall -i.e. now in residential and commercial and then expect a DCB, as a brief restbite before a plunge – and i keep explaining you cant have a DCB as a correction to an uptrend as 2005 was as i understand it ]. Im glad someone else knows what i mean by DCB – i was starting to question my definition!