Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Predictions for 2008

Will your home sell?

Pundits are predicting that 2008 will be the year when the party ends for rapidly rising house prices. Most experts are suggesting a gloomy year ahead for the property market after a decade of huge growth that has seen the cost of the average home rise from £70,000 to £195,000 See below for the predictions for 2008

Posted by little professor @ 09:07 AM (2582 views)
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7 thoughts on “Predictions for 2008

  • little professor says:
    Company |  2007 prediction |  2008 prediction
    
    RICS          +7%    0%
    
    Halifax        +4%    0%
    
    Nationwide   +3%   0%
    
    Hometrack   +4%  +1% 
    
    JohnCharcol  +4%  -2%
    
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  • Despite the predictions, it was interesting to note that on the reader poll of whether house prices will fall, stay the same or rise, some 85% of respondents chose FALL.

    Although the sampling is not perfect, that is an amazing reflection of sentiment – and one that I’ve not seen so starkly before.

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  • House prices need to rise by about 4% per year to offset the additional costs of buying vs renting. Over the past few years, they have of course done that, but as nobody is predicting that these rises will continue, there is no reason to buy at current prices, and therefore no reason to suppose that prices will move sideways as people are predicting here.

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  • Maybe the headline should be “Can anyone afford to buy your home ?” or “Who will loan you the money to buy a home ?”
    There, I have given the writers a helping hand for 2008.
    Happy New Year.

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  • it_is_going_with_a_bang says:

    Still the good old 0% prediction.
    Because as history shows house prices can hold at 0% …..
    Which is kind of funny since thats not a million miles away from -1%. RICS / Nationwide and Halifax just can’t bring themselves to say it.
    HNY!

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  • Its kind of funny – the price of a house is exactly what someone is willing to pay to acquire it. Price determination is a complex measure on a number of axis – the obvious supply and demand, expectations, the lending environment (both interest rates and general availability of credit and cost.) But clearly what’s been driving the prices ahead most has been the easy availability of credit married to the always upward expectation. Now the credit crunch is taking hold, the lending environment has changed markedly as will expectations. Those in themselves will push prices down – at least on those properties who realistically wish to sell – and until some other shock to the upside occurs (e.g. a massive deterioration in supply – unlikely in that those baby boomers who want to get as much equity out asap and more than likely to improve supply conditions by putting their properties on the market sooner.)

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  • Tayaramecanici says:

    A drop to 0% growth, when spread across the country could read as +5% in london where affordability is highest and -5% in rest of U.K. which will see a major impact of job losses and fall in the economy due to lower consumer confidence. In addition to the oversupply of city centre housing the issue of emigration also need to be taken into perspective. Myself am looking at moving to asia for a contracting job where there is a massive shortage of skilled manpower to manage present operations. Personally i am planning to rent my house in case i cannot sell it for the expected price, i don’t mind topping up the rent to payoff the mortgage. I am sure there are plenty of others thinking on similar lines.

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