Monday, December 31, 2007
Evening Standard today:
Ten years ago I forecast what would happen to the economy in 2008: a house-price crash ahead of a wider recession. People are being lulled into thinking Britain will still manage a 'soft landing'. House prices may turn down over the next six months, according to the consensus, but they will pick up again towards the end of 2008. These assurances are irresponsible. In my view, the decline in house prices will exceed 20% over the next two years. oOver the past 200 years, housing booms have always been followed by economic recessions.