November 2007 Archive

Friday, November 30, 2007

This is the end. My only friend the end.

The Times: Buy-to-let landlords fear they may have to sell as sub-prime mortgage deals dry up

The exodus means that investors who need to remortgage may no longer be offered attractive rates and will be forced to pay the standard variable rate, pushing up their monthly outgoings by hundreds of pounds when rental yields are relatively flat.

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 10:19 PM 1 Comments

Told you they built too many !!!

Daily Milf: New Use for City Centre Apartments

"I'm a classy sophisticated escort available for INCALLS in my discreet and luxurious Leeds city centre apartment and OUTCALLS across the whole Yorkshire area. I can also visit other areas the UK with notice." And there's many more adverts like this! Maybe they could also be used canabis factorys, there light and airy and nobody can see through the windows 10 floors up.

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 07:48 PM 3 Comments

"buy-to-let market virtually destroyed"

MoneyExtra: The incredible vanishing sub prime mortgage

Not a great article but it makes an interesting point: the housing market is dead for a looonnggg loooooooonnnnnnngggg time. "If the [credit] market fails to recover in the longer term, borrowers coming off a sub prime fixed term deal in the next year or two could be placed in a difficult position, especially if their financial position has not improved sufficiently to allow them back into the prime market" but there is no chance the credit market "improves" since the cheap credit of the past was a one-off aberration

Posted by confused76 @ 05:24 PM 2 Comments

Will this happen here in the UK?

The Wall Street Journal online: U.S., Banks Near A Plan to Freeze Subprime Rates

WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration and major financial institutions are close to agreeing on a plan that would temporarily freeze interest rates on certain troubled subprime home loans, according to people familiar with the negotiations.

Posted by novice @ 04:26 PM 6 Comments

May offend some (Adult Language)


WORRIED homeowners were cheered last night as economists revealed that next year's house price collapse will lead to widespread starvation and prostitution among Britain's estate agents.

Posted by landedgentry @ 03:51 PM 26 Comments

America faces up to recession

MoneyWeek: Shopping spree ends as US recession looms large

As the bad news from the US piles up, the mainstream press is now buzzing with the prospect of an American recession. Investors are counting on the Fed coming to the rescue by slashing rates - but inflation pressures and the falling dollar could scupper their hopes.

Posted by mary @ 03:28 PM 0 Comments

Dump commercial property before it's too late

MoneyWeek: Time to bail out of commercial property

"Once awash with cash, the commercial property sector now looks decidedly peaky and those invested in it would do well to minimise their exposure." In other words, sell sell sell!

Posted by mary @ 03:12 PM 1 Comments

BTLers' confidence has plunged

IFAonline: Investor confidence lowest since 2005 - Standard Life

"Buy to let property confidence has dipped more significantly, sinking from 23 points in July to 0" BTLers wish they had not grown their portfolios during the past year: rental income s@cks and assetz prices are gonna fall. What is the silver lining for them? NONE!!

Posted by confused76 @ 01:58 PM 10 Comments

A Good Synopsis Of a Very Interesting Week

Telegraph TV: Business Round Up Of The Week

A good summary that shows a real change in the way the papers are now viewing the current situation, quite Bearish!

Posted by wdbeast @ 01:42 PM 1 Comments

Not so many people spending money on 'their' property B&Q's profit blues

The DIY giant also admitted higher interest rates and the housing slowdown were taking their toll. B&Q's profits fell nearly 9million to 38m in the three months to November.

Posted by disillusioned @ 11:53 AM 2 Comments

Homebuyers duped yeat again

BBC News Online: Homebuyers duped by DIY cover ups

Encouraged by the many makeover and how to be a property developer (duper), is it any wonder that this has happened. You can only paper over the cracks so much before it all turns to dust! It is not just a case of fool some of the people some of the time, it is fool all the people all the time, get you money and get out. The house of cards is crumbling. Yipeeeeee!

Posted by lloyd @ 11:53 AM 0 Comments

Unskilled workers set to flood job market

The Daily Mash: Estate Agents Will Starve To Death After House Price Crash, Says Upbeat Report

Professor Wayne Hayes, the Van Hoogstraten chair of prices at the House Institute, said: "Great news, the pin-striped tit-cockers are all going to starve to death. Slowly." It's not gold prices or economic high brow, but I fell about laughing.

Posted by hitmanht @ 11:47 AM 0 Comments

Depression here we come: soup kitchens running out in the USA

NY Times: Food Banks, In a Squeeze, Tighten Belts

It's like a story from the 1930s: food kitchens for the hard-up in the USA are running out of supplies. Partly due to the bad harvest and supermarket inventory monitoring but also due to increased demand and straitened circumstances among the usual middle-class donors. "Ms. Gosselin said household budget squeezes had led to a drop in donations and greater demand. This is not the old only the homeless are hungry, she said. Its working people. "

Posted by an bearin bui @ 11:42 AM 0 Comments

EAs getting desperate

London Evening Standard: Fewer buyers and falling prices halt house boom

The EAs are getting desperate. Beans on toast for Poxtons Xmas dinner ? "Frenzied "open house" viewings and sealed bid auctions that marked the peak of the London property boom have all but disappeared."

Posted by doomwatch @ 11:38 AM 6 Comments

US Foreclosure Filings Up 94 Pct in Oct.

Yahoo! Finance: US Foreclosure Filings Nearly Double

With thanks to for spotting this. Coming here soon: A total of 224,451 foreclosure filings were reported in October, up 94 percent from 115,568 in the same month a year ago, according to Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc. The number of filings in October rose 2 percent from September's 219,850. The U.S. had one foreclosure filing for every 555 households in October, RealtyTrac said. The filings include default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. Some properties might have received more than one notice if the owners have multiple mortgages.

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 11:04 AM 1 Comments

25% Increase for M6 Toll Road Users.

ICBirmingham: M6 Toll near Birmingham set to increase charges

In the new year prices for the M6 Toll will rise 25% from 4 to 5. Surely sum mistake, inflation is running at 2%.

Posted by doggadogdog @ 11:01 AM 0 Comments

Inflation Up

Bloomberg: Europe's Inflation Rate Soars, Putting ECB in a Bind

European inflation accelerated in November to the fastest in more than six years, adding pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates even as economic expansion cools. The inflation rate in the 13-nation euro area rose to 3 percent this month from 2.6 percent in October.

Posted by alan @ 10:44 AM 15 Comments

I want to post this again

Primelocation: The best report on the London housing market

Let me post this brilliant report once again. It focuses on London, it is short and factual (not like the Azzetz reportz) and shows that both sales and rentals are pear shaped. So, just in case you reader of this blog are a keen BTLetter, just be aware what your mounting losses next year will look like. MWUAUHH AHHHHH AHHAHAHH. Let us hope Primelocation does not stop publishing its monthly report.

Posted by confused76 @ 10:10 AM 41 Comments

The stagflation nightmare looms

MoneyWeek: Why rising skylines can lead to falling markets

Research suggests that the tallest buildings in the world tend to pop up just before an economic slump. And today, rising skylines across the world could be warning that were heading for the same fate

Posted by mary @ 10:05 AM 3 Comments

James Harding on the moon

Times: Correction, not crash

"banks and building societies have been more conservative in managing loan-to-value ratios than they were in the late-1980s" AHH AHHHHHA HHHHH MWUAAAHHHHHHA HHHHH AHHH A MWUAUUUUUUUUAHHAHAAHH

Posted by confused76 @ 10:05 AM 4 Comments

The BBC's own amateur buy-to-let landlords (turned amateur journalists) put in their collective bid to save their skins

BBC "News": Lenders plead for rate cut help

"Its members may feel that the challenges presented by the credit crisis in financial markets and the problems at Northern Rock mean that it is time to cut interest rates from their present level of 5.75%."

Dream on, dream on ...

Posted by paul @ 08:15 AM 32 Comments

House prices fall 'fastest for 12 years'

Daily Mail: House prices fall 'fastest for 12 years'

One of the comments: I read the articles on this site and then go to work and listen to colleagues who are continuing to buy property, completely oblivious it seems to the crash that is taking place around them. How strange I think, are they insane? Do I work in a supermarket with people of limited financancial sophistication. No I work in the City of London, they're still buying and as long as they do, I can't see this 30% fall in London and the south east. Personally, I wish they would as I want to upgrade and my salary would go further if prices were cheaper.......

Posted by eagle @ 08:02 AM 1 Comments

Mortgage market closed for business, Come back in 2011?

Firstrung: The residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) market remains closed - CML

The residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) market remains effectively closed, with no imminent sign of re-opening. In the wake of the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, many investors are showing an aversion to RMBS markets globally. While some larger firms have been able to obtain funds via private placements and the covered bonds market, this latter option remains an uncertain one. Responding to deteriorating market liquidity, the European Covered Bond Council recently had to recommend a temporary suspension of covered bond inter-bank market-making. While market making has since restarted, bid offer spreads are much higher than normal.

Posted by converted lurker @ 07:53 AM 0 Comments

Even the gutter press are reporting it

The Mirror: House prices down 65 a day.

House prices dropped by an average 65 a day this month, the fastest rate for 12 years. Further fuelling fears of a property slump, mortgage approvals in October also crashed to just 88,000.

Posted by little professor @ 07:20 AM 6 Comments

It's all gone Pete Tong!

Telegraph: ECB rate cut pleas grow as Euribor goes mad

The concerns came as one-month Euribor spiked violently by 60 basis points to 4.87pc today, the sharpest move ever recorded. Italy's financial daily Il Sole splashed on its website that the Euribor had "gone mad".

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 07:08 AM 0 Comments


The Telegraph: BoE Governor's stark picture of UK economy

""There is certainly a risk, particularly given the elevated level of inflation expectations, that [the BoE Monetary Policy Committee] will not be able to keep inflation close to the target in the wake of these further increases in commodity and energy prices," Mr King said."

Is he paving the way for inflation like in the US? Get ready for GBP to tumble

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 05:41 AM 7 Comments

BTL in for a rough ride as yield is low and capital gains is also declining

Times: House price plunge heralds fears of double whammy for investors

Some fear the BTL may be in for a rough ride as the rental income does not pay the mortgage and capital gains are declining. In recent weeks BTL have been trying to get out before the market gets worse. TFS Brokers are predicting a 7% fall in house prices next year. Here comes the crash!

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 04:27 AM 12 Comments

Christmas is coming early for the banks

Times: Alliance & Leicester gets 4bn cash boost from Swiss bank

A&L has secured a 4bn cash injection over 2 years from Credit Suisse. However, some question what interest rate A&L is paying above LIBOR.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 04:19 AM 2 Comments

Sterling as well as house prices is falling

FT: Housing data hit sterling

Sterling fell yesterday against the Euro, Dollar and Yen after (a) the Nationwide released its housing price data (0.8% drop) and the UK mortgage approvals slumped was confirmed. This is becoming a perfect storm.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 04:07 AM 0 Comments

The papers fall into line

Independent: Is the roof falling in on the housing market

Nowhere in this article is the word "underpin" - the housing market is recognised as what it is - a speculation driven bubble, with talk now of a 10% decline.

Posted by van hoogstraten @ 02:27 AM 0 Comments

Household debt now exceeds 150% of disposable income (a historical high)

Economist: Bleak House: The worst is yet to come for Britain's housing market

UK house prices have become unaffordable to an increasing number of the population, given that household debt now exceeds 150% of disposable income (a historical high), and that the mortgage interest burden stands at 20% of gross income (up from 11% in 2003). Even if demand were strong enough to continue to push up house prices, the recent credit crunch has reduced the funds available to potential house buyers as lenders have reined in borrowing.

Posted by drewster @ 12:02 AM 1 Comments

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Nearly there - only the Sun to report this shocking story!!

Express: Shock fall in house prices

Nearly there - the red tops get the message! The Sun will report it soon! House Price Crash is my guess at a title. Any other guesses?

Posted by flapjack @ 10:46 PM 2 Comments

Don't panic! Don't panic!

The Times: Gloom not doom. Correction not crash.

Are we talking down the housing market? In a word, yes. The shrill headlines are far more alarming than the actual prospects for house prices. Interest rates now look certain to fall, easing mortgage costs. A repeat of the negative equity blight is unlikely.

Posted by little professor @ 10:08 PM 10 Comments

Grim faces on the tube tonight as the penny drops

London Evening Standard: Fears of House price crash grow

"Fears of a housing crash dramatically increased as figures showed the biggest monthly fall in property prices for more than 12 years."

Posted by doomwatch @ 06:26 PM 4 Comments

World economy heading for 'perfect storm'

This is Money: World economy heading for 'perfect storm'

I like one of the comments (as I am no longer invited to any parties): "I'll bet he's the life and soul of a party !! What a cheery outlook."

Posted by eagle @ 06:09 PM 0 Comments

Our party looks more and more certain

Times: Mervyn King in stark housing warning as prices slide

"the Bank Governor says first signs of credit crunch contagion will be in property" "House purchase approvals, a strong indicator of demand, slumped more than 20 per cent to 102,000 between the end of last year and September, Ms Earley said. She added: "We expect this activity to continue to fall back throughout the rest of this year, and into the next."

Posted by confused76 @ 04:47 PM 3 Comments

Scary reading on the tube tonight

Evening Standard: House Prices Show Further Slump

The front page of the print version is more stark - 'House price crash fears'. Great news for us London bears

Posted by bricksnmortarhaha @ 03:12 PM 0 Comments

The worst is yet to come . . .

Economist: Bleak House

Bear food is coming at us from all angles today.

Posted by bricksnmortarhaha @ 03:10 PM 0 Comments

Where has all the cash gone?

BBC: Personal loan market 'shrinking'

More lenders have stopped offering unsecured personal loans, a move that financial information firm Moneyfacts has called a "worrying" trend. Hanley Economic Building Society and Eskimo Loans, which is funded by Northern Rock, have both withdrawn their products with immediate effect. Before the latest withdrawals, GE Money, Leeds Building Society and LV= had already stopped offering unsecured personal loans in the past few weeks.

Posted by alan @ 02:48 PM 4 Comments

Rich Mans Game

rics: rich mans game

Why Do You Poeple Want A Housing Crash Anyway - Are You All Living On The Streets With Your Money In The Bank?

Posted by me @ 01:15 PM 0 Comments

Ignore Wall Street's tantrums

The Times: Ignore Wall Street's tantrums

Talking about Flip flopping!!!

Posted by eagle @ 12:58 PM 3 Comments

Renting is horrible so buy a house NOW say desperate BBC

BBC "News": Who'd live in a house like this?

One-sided op-editorial attempt by the BBC to spur people into buying houses. Things have turned desperate for the amateur buy-to-let turned amateur news editors at White City.

Posted by paul @ 12:49 PM 9 Comments

IR positioning

Reuters: Blanchflower wants rate cut now

Interest rates need to come down now, Bank of England policymaker David Blanchflower was quoted as saying on Thursday, though he admitted the central bank faced a delicate balancing act....."It is certainly a situation we have not had for quite a long time. It will be a delicate balancing act," he told the Birmingham Post.

Posted by alan @ 12:36 PM 20 Comments

Obituary for the housing market

Times: Analysis: Dire data

Are we there? YEESSSS: 1. all the surveys - Rightmove, RICS, Halifax, Hometrack and now Nationwide, have reported price falls over the past two months. 2. Mervyn explicitly warning on the risks to the housing market from the credit crisis. 3. Barker said the market hinges on confidence and could turn down very sharply if the arithmetic of buy-to-let gets worse (and it has done). 4. HSBC said yesterday that their models implied house prices were 30 per cent above true value. Those who have built up mini-property empires should think carefully. Any plans that rely on household equity rising to offset shortfalls in mortgage repayments are simply no longer sustainable. In other words BTL is in the poo poo.

Posted by confused76 @ 11:40 AM 26 Comments

Add Your Comments

BBC: Have house prices fallen in your area?

UK house prices saw their biggest fall in 12 years during November, according to the Nationwide. Are you affected?

Posted by seanb303 @ 11:20 AM 4 Comments

The End of Materialism

Gold Eagle: Real price of silver has been falling for 500 years

This author concludes that a falling price of silver for 500 years should reach zero around 2012.
He also concludes that gold bugs who want a return to the gold standard are just as greedy as the bankers creating fiat money; they just want to change the rules in their favour.

Quote "The game of Materialism is coming to an end. I know this for a certainty, because there are no longer any significant assets of value available for acquisition, and if you don't believe me on that one, just ask Mr Warren Buffett. And no, it's not just a cyclical phenomenon in the sense that we are used to thinking about."

Food for thought.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:44 AM 12 Comments

Mr King tells it as it is

BBC News: King says outlook 'uncomfortable'

Bank of England governor Mervyn King has sounded a downbeat note about the UK economy, warning that growth may slow and inflation was likely to rise.

Posted by mrmickey @ 09:28 AM 26 Comments

Stock market rally won't last

MoneyWeek: Don't be fooled by the stock market rally

"Given the choice between recession right now, or inflation now and a worse recession later, Ben Bernanke will always sacrifice the dollar and US citizens purchasing power in favour of trying to squeeze just one more bubble out of the economy before the day of reckoning arrives."

Posted by mary @ 09:17 AM 5 Comments

Does this article really need any more explanation?

Yahoo: House price drop biggest since 1995

As if we didn't know, but... it's over folks

Posted by meow @ 08:30 AM 4 Comments

Nationwide says the housing market is cooling rapidly

Times Online: House price fall is steepest in 12 years

The cost of an average home fell 0.8 per cent this month, according to a survey by Nationwide. It is the first decline since last February and the largest drop since June 1995. The average cost of a home is now 184,099, according to the bulding society.

Posted by peter @ 08:20 AM 1 Comments

CDO cracks showing

Bloomberg: S&P May Cut Six CDO Credit Ratings in Europe on Subprime Losses

Standard & Poor's said it may cut its credit ratings on six collateralized debt obligations in Europe because of losses on securities backed by U.S. subprime mortgages. S&P placed the ratings of 17 portions of CDOs on CreditWatch with negative implications, according to a statement

Posted by alan @ 07:58 AM 0 Comments

I can hear confused76 laughing

guardian: UK mortgage approvals fall sharply in Oct

British mortgage approvals for house purchase fell in October to their lowest in nearly three years and mortgage lending also slowed sharply, Bank of England data showed on Thursday.

Posted by inbreda @ 07:54 AM 5 Comments

Even the VI's are admitting that a HPC will happen!!!

Times Online: HSBC predicts property slump next year

House prices in Britain are overvalued by about 30 per cent, HSBC said yesterday, sounding the alarm that the property market could suffer a similar slump next year to that experienced in the United States.

Posted by rollonapril2008 @ 07:49 AM 3 Comments

Couldn't see this coming!!!

guardian: Alliance & Leicester admits credit crunch damage

"Alliance & Leicester today became the latest bank to admit that its profits have been damaged by the credit crunch. In an unexpected trading update this morning..." Personally I wouldn't use the word "unexpected" and "A&L losses" in the same sentence.

Posted by inbreda @ 07:45 AM 4 Comments

HPC is underway

The Telegraph: House prices suffer sharpest fall since 1995

November has seen the steepest monthly fall in UK house prices for 12 years, according to the latest survey from mortgage lender Nationwide.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 07:19 AM 12 Comments

sudden change of tone by the bbc

bbc: UK house prices see sharp tumble

UK house prices saw their biggest fall in 12 years during November, mortgage lender Nationwide has said.

Posted by seanb303 @ 06:08 AM 10 Comments

LIBOR rate highest since Northern Crock broke

FT: New fears for UK housing in credit collapse

The LIBOR rate hit 6.59% and banks are now struggling to find money to lend for mortgages. CML states it is an illusion to think savers deposits can make up for shortfall in wholesale funding (shortfall is 3.5billion per month). Bankers say there is nothing they can do.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 04:40 AM 8 Comments

High oil and food prices are increasing Euro zone inflation

FT: Inflation fears hit eurozone

Inflation is threatening fresh difficulties for the European Central Bank as it fights to calm financial markets that are casting a shadow over economic growth. Energy and food prices pushed inflation in Germany to the highest level since 1995, leading economists to forecast the annual eurozone figure, would reach 3 per cent or above and would pose a serious challenge to the ECB, which pledges to keep inflation below but close to 2 per cent. The Fed faces a similar dilemma in the US, where consumer price inflation hit an annual rate of 3.5 per cent last month, and could approach 4 per cent in the coming months, in spite of sharply slowing growth

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 04:17 AM 0 Comments

IMF is gloomy on world economy

BBC: IMF forecasts money down turn

The IMF chief economist is gloomy on the world economic prospects. He thought that there were signs in summer that the credit crunch would resolve itself however, he now admits that it is entering a second wave. With high oil prices and inflation interest rates cannot be cut and no country is strong enough to withstand the shock. This is a podcast that lasts one minute

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 03:55 AM 0 Comments

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

It's Grim Up North

International Herald Tribune: As towns go broke, subprime crisis hits Arctic Circle

The municipalities of Rana, Hemnes, Hattfjelldal and Narvik lost about 350 million kroner, or $64 million, from investments that fell to less than 55 percent of their original value. The towns invested a total of 451 million kroner in collateralized debt obligations created by Citigroup and sold to them by Terra Securities. They backed their investments with money from hydropower.

Posted by quiet guy @ 11:36 PM 0 Comments

After paying the bills, middle-class pockets are emptier now than in the 1970s (in America)

MSNBC: Life is harder now, some experts say

Despite the long lines at Starbucks, consumers are actually spending much less of their income on discretionary items like clothing, entertainment and food than their parents did. In fact, after essentials like housing and health care, todays middle class has only half as much spending money as their parents did in the early 1970s. Four in 10 Americans don't have even one month's worth of savings for use in case of an emergency. Household incomes have largely stagnated in recent years, even shrinking 2.8% from 2000 to 2006. Housing costs skyrocketed 32 percent in that time. Banks used to refuse mortgages if the monthly payment was above 25% of the buyers income. That limitation clearly is long gone. That means mortgages, more than lattes, are the source of middle-class anxiety.

Posted by drewster @ 10:32 PM 3 Comments

Alliance & Leicester Now Quadded & Rammed

Guardian Online: City fears A&L may need Bank rescue

Fears that Alliance & Leicester may have to seek emergency funds from the Bank of England circulated in the City last night as ratings agency Standard & Poor's said the bank could suffer from the lending freeze that triggered Northern Rock's downfall. S&P said Alliance & Leicester could be in trouble if wholesale markets failed to open up in the near future, and it downgraded the outlook for the bank from stable to negative. Analysts said the bank was struggling to cope amid turbulence on international money markets that has in effect put a freeze on banks lending to each other.

Posted by pacific state @ 08:14 PM 0 Comments

Here! Here! HSBC says UK houses are 30% overvalued!!

Times: Bubble to burst for 30% overvalued homes

"The alarming report from the banks chief UK economist, which gave warning that the coming property downturn would cause sterling to plummet and force the Bank of England to slash interest rates aggressively, came as official data revealed the fastest fall in London house prices for more than two years." My my my... we have been saying that for 2 years!! Actually, the journalist missed the "causality" link between slashing rates and currency collapse. But who cares...

Posted by confused76 @ 06:49 PM 18 Comments

This beggars belief! The US economy is mired in debt and Wall Street ignores this and focuses on thoughts of yet another deep IR cut in a few weeks time.

Bloomberg: Stocks Rally for Second Day; Citigroup, Ebay, Amazon Gain

U.S. stocks staged the biggest two- day rally in five years, led by financial shares, after Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn reinforced expectations for another interest rate cut.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 06:33 PM 6 Comments

Smell the Horse Poo as the FSA tries to shut the Stable Door

Fairinvestment: FSA crackdown on mortgage lenders' advice which could cause thousands of repossessions

To little to late as the Financial Services Authority carries out a review and subsequent 'crackdown' in order to bring justice to mortgage providers which have misled customers and encouraged them to take out "unaffordable" loans.

Posted by enuii @ 03:26 PM 11 Comments

HIPS cause repossessions ?

Clickpress: Too many energy assessors leads to repossessions, says National Homebuyers

Too many people are qualifying as energy assessors and now many are running into financial difficulty because there is no work for them to do!

Posted by enuii @ 03:21 PM 5 Comments

London crashing

Times: London house price slump sparks UK market fears

The capital's house prices fell at the fatest rate in two years, raising the prospect a slowdown will spread to the rest of the UK

Posted by confused76 @ 03:15 PM 10 Comments

Economy on the rocks as discretionary spending tumbles

Telegraph: Rough ride ahead as Winnebago in downturn

"Forget inflation and the manufacturing figures. Buying a motor home is seen as the ultimate discretionary item, and over the past three decades, declines have always heralded a rapid slowdown in the US economy. Now Winnebago is expected to post a decline in sales this year for the first time in six years." Also scroll to the end: "Other recession signals: In New York, you can measure the economy by the size of the buildings. More skyscrapers mean economic hardship ahead. The Empire State and Chrysler buildings were both completed in 1931 at the height of the Great Depression after being commissioned during a boom." Hmmm, isn't somebody building a giant Shard of Glass in central London? It'll be ready just in time for the coming depression!

Posted by drewster @ 02:53 PM 1 Comments

The Fed Fails

Safe Haven: No Market Bottom in Sight Yet as the Fed Fails

This correction is not over and it is a sign that the Fed policy of lowering interest rates to try to force a stock market rally and bailout the US banking system is failing.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 02:39 PM 2 Comments

Prices in London start to dropping

Times Online: London house price slump sparks UK market fears

House prices in London dropped at their fastest pace in more than two years in October sparking fears that a serious housing slowdown will spread from the nation's capital in the year ahead.

Posted by peter @ 01:54 PM 0 Comments

Black and white offices raided by police and fsa

Firstrung: Police and FSA raid leading mortgage brokers head office

According to the editorial team at Mortgage Strategy the Financial Services Authority and police swept into the offices of this morning looking for past case documents. The FSA arrived at the brokerage's head office in Staffordshire at 8am without specifying which areas of the business they were investigating.

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:28 PM 4 Comments

London prices won't fall ?

Guardian: London house prices fall

"House prices in London fell by 0.6% in October, the Land Registry said today, suggesting the capital's previously buoyant market may finally be following the slowdown in the rest of the UK. Don't worry though, as apparently this data could be "noise"

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:32 PM 4 Comments

developers and Speculators holding land.

BBC London News: City faces housing crisis

High property prices have resulted in huge increases in waiting lists for social housing and could lead to a crisis according to new research by the London Housing Federation.

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:05 PM 3 Comments

And it can only get worse!

ThisWasMoney: London house prices fall as slowdown hits

"the cost of the average home in London dipping by more than 2,000, according to the Land Registry." Why? " tighter lending practices and the heightened affordability pressure on house buyers coming from higher interest rates, elevated house prices and muted real disposable income growth" and what is next? "'These factors are expected to increasingly bite over the coming months. In addition, house prices in London could be markedly hit by City job losses and reduced bonuses" Ho! ho! ho!

Posted by confused76 @ 11:58 AM 0 Comments

Federal Reserve will have to slash interest rates to 3pc

The Telegraph: Goldman says US rates must be slashed

The banks chief economist, Jan Hatzius, said US house prices were likely to fall 15pc from peak to trough, leaving a fifth of the countrys homeowners with $3,000bn in negative equity.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:07 AM 13 Comments

Similar to 1929

The Telegraph: China wins from credit crunch fallout

In the 1920s, individual Americans went on a binge, buying shares on margin - that is, borrowing as much as 90 per cent of their cost. In October 1929, when the US stock market started to fall, these investors were forced to liquidate their holdings to pay back what they owed. The downward financial spiral helped to precipitate the Great Depression.

Between 2002 and 2007, banks were buying bonds on margin - borrowing more than 90 per cent of the cost to pay for their investments. In August, when parts of the bond market collapsed, the spectre of 1929 began to haunt the world's major banks.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:00 AM 3 Comments

Deal values citi less than junk bonds

The Telegraph: Citigroups Abu Dhabi deal is 'desperate'

Each unit will pay interest quarterly, a fixed rate of 11pc per annum. That compares unfavourably with the average yield for US junk bonds, which stands at 9.4pc according to Merrill Lynch data

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:12 AM 1 Comments

Computer will be saying "no" in 2008

Firstrung: 2008 could spell disaster for credit impaired customers needing mortgages

Moneynet's chief executive, Richard Brown: "There is no question that the current climate is tough for those who don't fit the criteria for standard mortgages. "There are deals to be had but the rates can be extremely high, as much as 9.99 per cent fixed until November 2009 from Alliance & Leicester in order to offset the allowances made for unlimited CCJs, unlimited mortgage arrears and a blind eye turned to defaults on credit card payments."

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:56 AM 4 Comments

FTBs priced out of

Firstrung: First time buyers need an income of 100,000+ to buy average price homes in 25% of London boroughs

First time buyers need an income of more than 100,000 to buy an average-price home in a quarter of all London boroughs, a report from the London Housing Federation has shown. Soaring house prices have left the average property in the capital costing 318,000 and have created a "social crisis", with increasing numbers of people struggling to find a home of their own, according to the London Housing Federation.

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:54 AM 0 Comments

House price drops in Londonium

Firstrung: London house prices fall 0.6% in October - Land Registry

For the first time in ten months the monthly rate of price change for London drops below the monthly rate for England and Wales as a whole. This month's 0.6 per cent fall in London prices is greater than any other region. However as it is on the back of a 12 month period of strong growth, the annual change in the capital's house prices remains a high 14.7 per cent.

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:52 AM 0 Comments

Breaking News: London Falling... ho, ho, ho

LandReg: House prices Oct 2007

Land Registry data for October are out: "London experienced the largest negative price movement this month with a change of -0.6 per cent"

Posted by confused76 @ 09:14 AM 4 Comments

Big Mortgage Increases

Times Online: One in three faces big mortgage increases

A third of mortgage borrowers are facing severe financial difficulties as a result of the credit crunch, according to a report published yesterday.

Posted by peter @ 09:09 AM 0 Comments

Institutions hoarding cash

Independent: ECB to pump 30bn into money markets

The European Central Bank has promised to supply the money markets with an extra 30bn (22bn) in one-week funds, in another indication that the credit crisis is far from over. The ECB sold 178bn of these funds to eurozone financial institutions, compared with the 148bn it had previously said the banks would need for routine business. The New York Federal Reserve announced on Monday it was implementing several measures to increase liquidity in the parched credit markets. The Fed and ECB actions are designed to quell fears that there will not be enough money available to the markets, as financial institutions "hoard cash".

Posted by alan @ 08:42 AM 2 Comments

9% of UK mortgages are "sub-prime"

MSN: Trouble looms for a third of mortgages

LONDON (Reuters) - Up to one in three or 5.5 million mortgage holders in Britain could face serious financial difficulties as a result of the U.S. subprime crisis and the tougher lending climate it has created, a study showed. Mintel said 9 percent of British mortgage holders were classed as sub-prime, while a further 24 percent were "non-standard" and relatively high risk because they had irregular incomes.

Posted by uncle chris @ 08:41 AM 12 Comments

This is going to beat US subprime big time

ThisWasMoney: 10m Britons falling into black hole of debt

"About 3% even fear they are about to lose their home." I think mortgage banks are still hiding these figures

Posted by confused76 @ 08:31 AM 3 Comments

Gold is correcting nicely

Gold Price: Gold Price Wave 3 Begins - Gold Shares will Catapult Higher

Gold is down from 835 to 790 in 2 days. The HUI (gold stocks) will tumble today too. Once this correction has finished, and it could be very soon, there is an excellent chance to buy gold stocks and see 50pc gain in 6 months.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:07 AM 9 Comments

How to sell during a slump

MoneyWeek: How to shift your house in hard times

"...if your home has been on the market for three months, then reassess the asking price. Even if the initial price was perfectly reasonable, the market is not what it was in August."

Posted by mary @ 07:59 AM 4 Comments

What's that gurgling noise? Ahhh, it's Ireland, Spain and Italy going down the pan!

Bloomberg: European Money-Supply Growth Accelerated in October

Money-supply growth in the euro region accelerated more than economists forecast in October to the fastest pace in more than 28 years, adding to the European Central Bank's inflation concerns. M3 money supply, which the ECB uses as a gauge of future inflation, grew 12.3 percent from a year earlier, after gaining 11.3 percent in September, the Frankfurt-based bank said today. That's the highest rate since July 1979. Economists expected growth of 11.5 percent, according to the median of 35 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 07:51 AM 0 Comments

About inflation

Tgraph: School fee plans face toughest test

"School fees typically rise at twice the rate of inflation, increasing by a total of 41 per cent over the past five years." beg your pardon what was the rate of inflation, 2% in the BoE dreams! But no worries "Next year buy-to-let could look a steal as stretched landlords dump houses and flats and repossessions appear. Such property could provide an income stream."

Posted by confused76 @ 07:29 AM 11 Comments

Official data on inflation is now irrelevant - Official Interest Rates are now irrelevant. Market fundamentals have detached from the official monetary policy

telegraph: Commuters facing 14pc rail fares rise

Rail passengers will be hit by fare increases of up to seven times the current rate of inflation in the new year. Some commuters face rises of up to 14 per cent when train companies bring in the rises in early January, while the average rise will be 6.8 per cent.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 07:07 AM 2 Comments

At last someone is telling it like it is

MSN Money: Greedy bankers and the banking crisis

This article hits the spot. A little flaky on any detail, but everyone gets a swipe - the bankers, the regulators, the Crock, Applejuice. Merv is the only one spared.

Posted by dazednconfused @ 06:48 AM 1 Comments

A possible way forward

BBC: What happens when banks go bust?

The Northern Rock bank has said it favours an offer from the Virgin consortium as the preferred way out of its deep financial problems. But if that and any other offers were to fail, then declaring the bank insolvent and bringing in administrators would be a strong alternative solution.

Posted by alan @ 06:23 AM 2 Comments

Is $6bn a lot of money these days?

BBC: Freddie Mac in $6bn share issue

"The record defaults over the past year have been sparked by higher US mortgage rates." That could never happen in the UK though. The market is underpinned by, what was it again? Something the Americans didn't have... speculation, high demand, loose lending, hot air etc. etc. etc. Nothing to see at the BBC.

Posted by tony lewis @ 05:37 AM 0 Comments

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Ho! Ho! Ho!

Times: Homeowners warned of more forced sales

"As many as one in three borrowers, or 5.5m people, will see their annual mortgage bills leap as lenders hike costs for customers deemed high risk This s got nothing to do with the BoE base rate... it is just risk right-pricing... I mean BoE can't do anything about it

Posted by confused76 @ 09:27 PM 5 Comments

"Just the beginning of a downward trend"

BLOOMBERG: Home Prices in U.S. Fell Record 4.5% in Third Quarter

Home prices in the U.S. fell in the third quarter by the most in at least two decades as the subprime lending crisis caused sales to slump.

Posted by alan @ 08:48 PM 5 Comments

But... I thought there was no sub-prime in the UK!

London Evening Standard: Shaming of brokers who encourage house buyers to take on 'unrepayable' mortgages

"One London couple were encouraged to inflate their joint income of around 24,000 to an imaginary 43,500 in order to qualify for a mortgage of 200,000. They found it impossible to meet the repayments."

Posted by papabear @ 05:12 PM 0 Comments

Tighter Monetary Policy to come

Reuters, Der Spiegel: Bank of England sees more market jitters

With concern about the property market in the UK and US the focus of Germanys "Der Spiegel" (who write interest rates could rise to 10%), is the latest announcement by the BofE an indication of times to come? Spiegel source article 25th November,,1518,519517,00.html

Posted by growler @ 04:30 PM 8 Comments

All bets on a FALL Hedge Funds Make The Most Profitable Single Trade Of All Time

The Financial Times reports that Lahde Capital, a California hedge fund, is the latest firm to be identified in the small group of US funds which have made the single most profitable trade ever by using derivatives to short subprime-linked securities.

Posted by doomwatch @ 04:05 PM 6 Comments


times online: Homeowners warned of more forced sales

The repayment blow has added to fears of a sharp slowdown in the housing market next year. Figures from the British Bankers' Association ( already suggest that the slowdown in house prices is on course to be the most severe in at least a decade

Posted by sold out @ 03:43 PM 2 Comments

Forecast:: U.S. dollar could fall 90%

United Press International: Forecast:: U.S. dollar could fall 90%

financial crisis will likely send the U.S. dollar into a free fall of as much as 90 percent and gold soaring to $2,000 an ounce, a trends researcher said. "We are going to see economic times the likes of which no living person has seen," Trends Research Institute Director Gerald Celente said, forecasting a "Panic of 2008."

Posted by cybervigilantes @ 02:58 PM 2 Comments

A Fool's Guide To Pocket Money

Sky News: A Fool's Guide To Pocket Money

Some Prudent Advise For The Btl Brigade It's All Their Parents Fault!!!!!

Posted by wdbeast @ 02:57 PM 1 Comments

Government U-turn

Times Online: Planning rethink will ease new restrictions on loft conversions

Home improvers will be able to build bigger loft conversions without planning permission from next year after a Government U-turn to be announced today.

Posted by peter @ 01:53 PM 1 Comments

Trying to inflate rental yields! Anything is possible I suppose!

BBC News: Tenant demand at 'five year high'

The level of tenants seeking to rent property privately has hit a five year high in the UK, the Association of Residential Letting Agents (Arla) says. A number of factors have combined to push up demand including an increase in immigration, more people living alone, and a weakening of the housing market.

Posted by pmaupoil @ 12:04 PM 3 Comments

Quick, look over there!

BBC "News": BREAKING NEWS - UK population to 'double by 2081' (perhaps)

Why this is breaking news is beyond me, but looks very much like thegovernment has gone to plan B and invoked weapons off mass distraction against its own population. The article states "population could hit 110m in 2081 if there are high rates of immigration and fertility". Well if there are high enough rates of fertility, it could double again etc. etc.

Do the BBC have no integrity at all any more?

Posted by paul @ 12:04 PM 14 Comments

Surely it's the sellers who are panicking?

AboutProperty: Buyers urged to avoid panic as house prices fall

Brits are being warned not to panic as house prices slow and begin to fall in some areas. Property is still a sound long-term investment, according to Miller Homes. "It is a solid investment for the future and will not only help you move up the property ladder, it will also provide security and peace of mind for your family. " "So in fact, there is actually a fantastic opportunity at the moment"

Posted by little professor @ 11:12 AM 21 Comments

Reposession threatens hundreds of thousands

Der Spiegel: Hunderttausenden Familien droht Zwangsversteigerung

It's not just the UK media that are watching the markets: Der Spiegel Headline: "Hunderttausenden Familien droht Zwangsversteigerung. Hausbesitzer in Sorge, Brsen in Aufruhr: Die Krise an den Finanzmrkten geht in die zweite Runde - und die knnte schlimmer werden als die erste. In Grobritannien frchten Zehntausende, in den USA Hunderttausende Familien die Zwangsversteigerung. Auch Aktionren blhen schwierige Wochen." Summarized: Homeowners concerned, markets uneasy. The crisis in the financial markets enters a second stage that could be worse than the first The message is that whilst mortgage rates are around currently 6.6%, these will be "up to around 10% in the coming months". "A mortgage of approximately 150,000 will have monthly interest dues increase by about 300.

Posted by growler @ 11:07 AM 0 Comments just can't convince some people

Real Estate TV: UK house prices 'will increase next year'

"David Bexon, managing director of, said: "I believe that 2008 will be a more positive year for the new homes market.""

Posted by rubberneck @ 11:01 AM 1 Comments

London falling... remember that song by the Clash?

Primelocation: Record stock levels of prime London and prime country property

"The volume of prime London property for sale rises to record levels in October, up 54.6% on last year and up 12.9% on last month. Average prime London property prices fall for the third consecutive month, down 0.8%, wiping over 22,000 off the average sale price of a prime London home since August 2007. Annual price growth for prime London rental property halves from 11.8% in August 2007 to 5.8% in October 2007, with monthly rental price growth this month limited to just 0.2%." London falling... ahahh hahh... ahhahh hahahhah

Posted by confused76 @ 09:53 AM 18 Comments

increase the value of your property

Times Online: How to increase the value of your property

IF YOU are looking to increase the value of your home significantly, your best option is to build an extension. Halifax says that a substantial extension can add more to a homes value than any other home improvement. Creating an extra room should be the objective, although extending a room such as the kitchen may change the use of other rooms, thus having the same effect.

Posted by peter @ 09:48 AM 0 Comments

Credit crunch hits Barclays

Times Online: Credit crunch stalls Barclays' profits growth

Barclays reassured its nervous investors for the second time in a month today as it predicted that profits from the high street and at its Barclaycard credit card arm would offset a 1.3 billion credit writedown at Barclays Capital, its investment bank.

Posted by peter @ 09:19 AM 0 Comments

Bad news for buy to let will impact the whole market

MoneyWeek: Why buy-to-let will be the British subprime

Last week's crisis at buy-to-let lender Paragon was the latest in a slew of bad news for landlords. And since they've been driving house prices higher for some time, it's bad news for the market as a whole.

Posted by mary @ 09:00 AM 18 Comments

Is this why M3 in the US is exploding at 18pc

Bloomberg: Dollar Displaces Yen, Franc as Carry Trade Favorite

"Using the dollar to pay for purchases of currencies with higher yields is proving to be the most profitable trade in the foreign-exchange market."

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:36 AM 3 Comments

Handbags at ten paces

Business: Darling and King fell out over Northern Rock

A long but very interesting article which gives an insight into the degree of government meddling in the NR fiasco. "Mr King stood firm, and it was rumoured he would resign rather than cave in to the Treasury. Mr Darling lost his temper with King, at an explosive meeting, and insisted he must inject money into the system to save the banking industry as a whole"

Posted by little professor @ 07:42 AM 6 Comments

Oil to go to $400 by 2010???

Market Oracle: Hyper Inflation: Crude Oil and Gas The Next Fed Made Bubble To Come In 2008

"Do you expect oil to have spent 24 years from 1980 to 2004 within a trading range from $ 10 to $ 40 just for a short term rally ? ... It was and it is much safer to keep in mind that the breakout above $ 40 in 2004 was most likely the early stage of a ONE DECADE BULL for oil prices"

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 07:16 AM 2 Comments

Brown & co. are in the brown stuff

BBC News: Brown to answer 'crisis' claims

"The Conservatives have accused the government of being "in crisis" after Labour's general secretary resigned in a new row about party funding. Peter Watt stood down after it emerged that *property developer* David Abrahams donated nearly 600,000 to the party, over four years, via three associates." Perhaps this is why Labour allow house prices to soar? - it's their prime source of party funding!

Posted by jeremy @ 07:03 AM 0 Comments

"Gimme More, Gimme Gimme-More!" Britney Spears explains the subprime Housing Bubble Crash Britney Spears explains the Subprime Housing Bubble Crash

Video on Youtube that tells of a little story currently going on in the USA..... Won't happen here, as we dont have subprime in the UK, or do we.......

Posted by a fool & his borrowed money @ 06:29 AM 0 Comments

Inflation to peak in early 2008

Safe Haven: UK Inflation Forecast 2008 (RPI and CPI)

"The anticipated trend in Money supply growth continues to moderate from the high levels of 14% plus towards a trend to below 10% as per the analysis of 18th Sept 07. Money supply is an important contributory indicator for future inflation between 6 and 12 months forward. Hence money supply growth near 14% during mid 2007 was expected to result in higher inflation in the immediate future going into 2008 (22nd August 07). "

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 06:19 AM 9 Comments

Gordon hand bagged by farmer!

Telegraph: Gordon Brown harangued for farming 'fiasco'

Oh Gordon, you and Darling had better get used to this as there is plenty more to come!!

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 04:14 AM 3 Comments

Monday, November 26, 2007

Money to be made still?

Telegraph: Home, sweet home

A slowdown in the buy-to-let market could provide a much-needed fillip to first-time buyers, says Paul Farrow. One of the reasons cited for our pension-saving malaise has been our love for all things property. Property never used to be viewed as a way to riches or even a substitute for retirement savings - well, not among Joe Public that is. Property investing was the domain of the wealthy.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 07:35 PM 6 Comments

BOE turns bear on credit crunch and inflation

Telegraph: Bank of England warns credit crisis to worsen

The Bank of England warns that banks have so far only reported a relatively small fraction of the likely losses associated with the US sub-prime market. Further down the article the BOE warns that interest rates may have to increase to keep inflation under control due to China exports costing more. Oh thats okay then, for a minute I thought they were going to say that due to increasing oil and food prices interest rates would have to go up significantly. Only China is the problem so we can sleep easy!

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 05:13 PM 9 Comments

Beggars can't be choosers

BBC: Virgin's Rock bid 'to be blocked'

A main investor in troubled lender Northern Rock says that it will block a bid for the bank from Richard Branson's Virgin Group because it is too low.

Posted by george monsoon @ 04:05 PM 12 Comments

UK Property derivs

BBC Five Live: Banks betting and price drops in 08

Just been on 5 live. A property derivatives broker reckons the Oct07-Oct08 bets are currently running at a 7% drop in average residential prices. Interesting that this product is only available to banks and institutions, only the end of month figures are available to the public; something that should may be listed on HPC as a permanent indicator ?

Posted by doomwatch @ 03:26 PM 3 Comments

Not all debt is the same

The Edge: It's the type of debt that matters

The latest PwC survey led to alarming headlines that the average Briton is in debt to the tune of 33,000. But this lumps together all debt, including mortgages. The person with 33,000 in credit card debt should be worried; the person with only 33,000 in mortgage debt is the most prudent borrower in the street.

Posted by little professor @ 02:16 PM 10 Comments

Latest offer (or go to eBay)

Investor's Chronicle: Virgin territory for Northern Rock

The consortium is proposing to repay 11bn to the Bank of England, leaving the central bank with a "clear path towards repayment in full," says Northern Rock, which presently owes the Bank of England roughly 25bn. The consortium also plans to inject 1.3bn into Northern Rock, with half of the funds coming from the consortium and the remainder coming from an offer of new shares in Northern Rock, at 25p each, to existing shareholders. That will leave 55 per cent of Northern in the consortium's hands, and the bank would be rebranded under the Virgin banner.

Posted by alan @ 01:47 PM 0 Comments

Shutting the stable door or chickens coming home....

BBC Business: FSA threatens mortgage brokers

"An unnaceptable number of firms are unwilling to change" and some are "willing to offer mortgages they know to be unaffordable and to accept self-cert business even where they had concerns that the financial information provided by the customer was implausible" Were the FSA aware or are they just innefective ? - You decide

Posted by yorkshireman @ 01:21 PM 3 Comments

Is US money supply peaking?

Safe Haven: The Event Horizon For Credit

St Louis Fed Monetary base has been almost flat for months and is now showing declines.

Consumer and revolving credit roar on though.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:20 PM 4 Comments

Massive banking job losses coming

yahoo news: Citigroup planning major job cuts

Citigroup ... no exact number had yet been set, though some jobs were already being eliminated. It estimated that the cuts could total anywhere between 17,000 and 45,000.

Posted by genie @ 12:37 PM 0 Comments

The penny drops ?

BBC Ploitics Show (South): End of the housing boom?

The bigger they come, the harder they fall. And in the South of England there certainly are some very big prices in the estate agents windows. So big, many believe, they are going to go down with a bang. At they are replaying a video from the 80s comedy show "Spitting Image".

Posted by doomwatch @ 11:51 AM 6 Comments

Hedgy makes 10x profit betting against US subprime

FT: Hedge funds 1000% subprime return

Short article here it is "Californian hedge fund Lahde Capital has made more than 1,000 per cent return this year by betting against US subprime home loans, making it one of the worlds best-performing funds of all time. Mr Lahde, whose fund is one of the smallest specialists shorting subprime, has now begun to return money to investors, telling them in a letter that he expected the collapse in value of subprime mortgage-linked securities to be repeated for bonds backed by commercial property loans in a deep recession. Our entire banking system is a complete disaster, he wrote. In my opinion, nearly every major bank would be insolvent if they marked their assets to market. He also said he would be putting some of his own profits into gold and other precious metals."

Posted by happyrenterz @ 11:13 AM 1 Comments

Is living within means impossible for the retired?

Firstrung: Mortgage equity release sector shows alarming increase

Most other lending areas are tightening their belts, with stricter conditions, restricted availability and in some cases inflated rates, it is surprising to see the equity release sector beginning to broaden its horizons by way of lowering minimum ages and increasing maximum loan to values...

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:06 AM 4 Comments

House Prices to fall 7% next year

FT: City bets on 7% fall in house prices

This sounds more realistic than the headlines predicting a 0% change. When in history has a bubble ever been followed by a plateau? "The City is betting on UK house prices falling by 7 per cent next year in new tradeable derivatives contracts, which some bankers say is the best indicator of the markets direction as millions of pounds are riding on the outcome."

Posted by happyrenterz @ 11:03 AM 2 Comments

Hand to mouth culture about to run dry

Firstrung: 29 million people have to make sacrifices over coming days to 'get through' Christmas

Millions of Brits will issue a "payday mayday" this month, as they run out of cash in their current accounts. According to a new report from Abbey Banking, 64 per cent of Brits regularly have to make sacrifices in the days preceding their pay packet due to bad budgeting. On average, these poor planners run out of money five days before they receive their pay cheque - this month that will most likely happen on or around the 25th November, as most people get paid on the last day of the month...

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:02 AM 0 Comments

You wont believe this. Comical Ali was an amateur by comparison

CityWire: IMLA in denial on the state of the buy to let market

"Just because you've ridiculed an organisation before doesn't mean you can't do it again. So step forward the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (Imla) who continue to be in denial about the state of the UK housing market that they should rename themselves Tiger fish (in the Nile ... in denial .. sorry)." UAAHHH AHHH AHHHH UAAAAAHHHHHA

Posted by confused76 @ 10:03 AM 1 Comments

Malthus may have been right after all

The Telegraph: Biofuel and diet sow seeds of farm crunch

Mankind is outrunning its food supplies. Hunger - if not yet famine - is a looming danger for a long list of countries that are both poor and heavily reliant on farm imports, according to the Food Outlook of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:52 AM 4 Comments

BEEB needs its own watchdog investigation House prices gloom, but BBC still misses the point

The BBC, with its glut of programs on the housing market, all of which seem to be based on the implicit belief that house prices only ever go up (we have actually heard a BBC reporter say those exact words), has sat at the vanguard of creating what to our way of thinking is an unsustainable property bubble. The media is quick to criticise when things go wrong. Quick to call for tighter regulation, quick to point out irresponsible lending and selling. So when will the BBC launch a watchdog investigation into its coverage of the property market?

Posted by michael baxter @ 09:26 AM 1 Comments

Retailers might get lucky this Christmas

MoneyWeek: Why Christmas is a poor recession indicator

There's a lot of tension in the retail sector ahead of Christmas, which is unsurprising considering what a make-or-break time it is for the trade. And of course, their lobby group, the British Retail Consortium, is always on the lookout for a chance to paint as bleak a picture as possible, in the vain hope of twisting the Bank of Englands arm into an interest rate cut or two. But is it really going to be the calamity the pundits have predicted?

Posted by mary @ 08:34 AM 4 Comments

HIPS extends to 1 and 2 Bedrooms

Times Online: Hips extension to hit flat and small house sales

Owners of flats may struggle to sell their homes next year after the extension of the compulsory home information pack (Hip) scheme to one and two-bedroom properties from December 14.

Posted by peter @ 08:06 AM 2 Comments

The inflation rate con gains pace!

Telegraph: Christmas food prices set to rise, say retailers

'Last week it emerged eggs, bacon, butter, milk and bread were all rising in price far faster than the official food inflation figures.' Tell us something we don't know!

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 07:04 AM 0 Comments

Hometrack Research

Bloomberg: U.K. House Prices Fall for a Second Month

"The average cost of a home in England and Wales fell 0.2 percent from October to 175,700 pounds ($361,000) following a 0.1 percent drop the previous month, the London-based research group said today. From a year earlier, prices increased 3.6 percent, the least since July 2006". The Hometrack link on the HPC home page gives the report.

Posted by alan @ 06:58 AM 13 Comments

Smith admits he was wrong on economy

The Times: Darling sups from poisoned chalice

"Well, I was wrong"

Let's wait for the backtrack on HP - I'll give him 6 months

The longer he leaves his admission on HP the more of a plonker he will look

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 06:33 AM 8 Comments

Families are stretched to the limit of their borrowing capacity

The Telegraph: Average Briton is now 33,000 in debt

"After many years of rapid growth the consumer credit market has well and truly stalled. We believe that consumer credit borrowing levels have reached a natural ceiling."

The Council of Mortgage Lenders also warned recently that the number of homes repossessed during 2008 looked likely to reach levels last seen during the 1990s house price crash.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 06:06 AM 7 Comments

I'm only just a property developer!

BBC News: Labour to hold donations inquiry

Property developer David Abrahams gave more than 400,000 to Labour through Janet Kidd and Ray Ruddick as, he said, he did not want to "seek publicity".

Posted by stevie dee @ 05:47 AM 4 Comments

New Year Hangover

BBC News: Fuel bill warnings 'boost prices'

Steadfast, I still believe that inflation will reach 3% January, followed by imediate, then progressive base rate tightening on the basis of pipeline inflation such as this. "Domestic gas and electricity bills could rise by up to 10% by January, an independent energy broker said earlier"

Posted by planning4acrash @ 05:05 AM 0 Comments

Sunday, November 25, 2007

The coffee beans have arrived.

Yorkshire Evening Post: 100m flats plan axed

I have driven past this development with its purpose built marketiing suit for over a year now. I must admit I'm quite disappointed it isn't going ahead because this would have saturated an already saturated market in Leeds and fullfilled Gordon Brownstuff's policy for more affordable housing, just goes to show he was just bullsh!tting as usual.

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 09:43 PM 3 Comments

I'll take that bet ....

FT: City bets on 7% fall in house prices

The City is betting on UK house prices falling by 7 per cent next year in new tradeable derivatives contracts, which some bankers say is the best indicator of the markets direction as millions of pounds are riding on the outcome. These future housing contracts, which were published for the first time this year and have seen a surge in trading volumes in the past few months, are predicting much bigger falls in property values than other non-tradeable forecasts.

Posted by uncle chris @ 09:05 PM 15 Comments

Breaking News: the crash is here!!

Times: House prices in Britain tumble at fastest rate since 2005

"House prices fell this month at the fastest rate since July 2005 as the number of new buyers declined more swiftly even than the faltering supply of homes for sale." HAHHAH, Judith, what a prize i@iot!! She cannot avoid the "supply shortage" mantra. Game over folks!! there is no supply shortage there is DEMAND SHORTAGE now. "Prices are dropping in one in five postal districts, with the pain concentrated in areas such as Avon, Buckinghamshire..." She wants to make the point that poor areas feel the pain but... Bucks is the poshest shire. "but falls of as much as 0.5 per cent have been recorded in Central London" YEEEEEESSSS!!

Posted by confused76 @ 08:51 PM 3 Comments

12.5%discount to NAV if you want the money now

FT: Schroders cuts value of unit in 2 bln trust

Schroders for the first time since 91 are forcing those who wish to with draw money now to take a 12.5% discount to NAV

Posted by the reaper @ 08:01 PM 0 Comments

Meanwhile the BBC is claiming that Virgin will "snap up" Northern Crock

Rober Peston's blog and BBC "News": Virgin is preferred Rock bidder

Another example of the heavily pro-property-porn BBC trying to create a story of little substance. None of the major shareholders have accepted the Virgin bid, but the BBC proclaims it a foregone conclusion.

Posted by paul @ 07:00 PM 4 Comments

Alliance & Leicester set to make hugh write off

Guardian: A&L set to make huge 'toxic loan' write-offs

More losses at U.K. Banks. Darling here comes the next one!

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:01 PM 2 Comments

Uhm perhaps they will no longer cut rates

Observer: Rate cuts threaten to send pound sliding

If sterling slides interest rates will have to go up to support it!

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 05:51 PM 2 Comments

BBC blames interest rates, HIPs and the media (sic!) for lowering confidence in the market

BBC video: Property market uncertain

"The credit crunch and higher interest rates are among the factors that are making the property market uncertain". Then BBC makes a big Freudian slip "in the housing market it is all about confidence. It is not important what it is happening out in the market but what buyers and seller think it is happening. If confidence takes a hit the market can tumble" Good Lord, this is what I call a market with rock-solid fundamentals, like immigration, divorces and a growing student population. Another great comment was " we need an interest rate cut to put some positive news in the media" (which are accused to be talking down the market). WOW!!

Posted by confused76 @ 05:29 PM 5 Comments

Commecial propert is falling expect the same from residential

The Times: A zero year for property

Property companies and funds have suffered major declines in asset values and share prices. Commerial property is in free fall and residential will soon follow.

Posted by mike livingstone @ 10:19 AM 4 Comments

The Life and Times of TweedleDumb and TweedleDumber

The Independent: Government in Crisis (II): Captains of calamity: PM and Darling hit by triple whammy

Gordon Brown has barely had time to unpack his boxes since being chosen by the Labour party to be the Prime Minister but already many within the party must surely be wondering whether they stand any chance whatsoever of winning the next General Election under his leadership. It can be argued that every PM will encounter problems but Gordon Brown seems to lurch like a drunk from one disaster to the next whilst doing little to persuade the public that he control of either his party or the Country. Is this a blip or the chickens of Brown's years as chancellor finally coming home to roost? Brown must rapidly turn around the growing public dissatisfaction in his ability to Govern the country. Will Darling become the first casuality of Brown's attempt to show authority?

Posted by denzil @ 09:48 AM 1 Comments

Five Years Too Late?

Guardian: Any more mistakes and we follow the US into crisis

Everybody knows that house and flat prices are very high in relation to salaries and wages, and that buyers have overstretched themselves with daft mortgages.

Posted by quiet guy @ 09:41 AM 4 Comments

Crash Gordon still thinks he made the right decisions - time will tell.

BBC News: Brown defends record amid polls

"Brown insists the economy is not in for a rough ride -- which could torpedo his long-term electoral prospects." and to top it off.... "What I'm saying about Britain is that it's possible for us, having taken the right decisions on monetary policy ... to steer a course of stability through these difficult times." The right decisions for who exactly? Not if you want to buy a house they weren't.

Posted by ihopeitgoeswithabang @ 08:53 AM 2 Comments

Fascinating insight into life in the Square Mile - and how it's all about to get nasty!

Times: This little piggy left the stock market

If you speak to any serious divorce lawyer, they will tell you their best clients are the City folk who have had the golden handshake in their fifties. They go home, look across the breakfast table, and say, Weve nothing in common. Its very sad.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:06 AM 2 Comments

Thousand good reasons the crash is now!!

Guardian: Buy-to-let brings the global credit crunch home to roost

1. UK property longer-lasting and more extreme than US + evidence rapidly accumulating that it has passed its peak. Been given an extra boost in recent years by a borrowing binge, as banks cut-throat competition caused interest rates unusually low. 2. BTL investors have been relying on hefty capital gains to generate their profits, but confidence in ever-rising starts to fall away, they are left with little rationale to hang on to their portfolios. 3. Premiums between prime locations and shabbier neighbours narrow in fast-rising markets and reopen when normality returns." How many reasons have now replaced the "immigration, divorces, single household" mantras for a good, 90's style crash!! AHAH

Posted by confused76 @ 07:50 AM 7 Comments

Can beggars be choosers ?

BBC Business News: Rock shareholder sell-off warning

RAB capital which "controls" almost 7% of NortherN Rock will vote against any take over that did not properly value its shares. Mr Phil Richards goes on to claim NR is basically sound and blames everyone but the ex-management of the institution. I do not know whether to laugh or cry. C76, please help me out.

Posted by yorkshireman @ 05:58 AM 1 Comments

Fire sale starts - need cash now!

Telegraph: Paragon plans to sell book of car

Paragon is selling its car loan in an attempt to avoid an emergency rights issue.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 04:19 AM 1 Comments

Saturday, November 24, 2007

Banks are in deep problems and house prices will tumble

Guardian: More banks face being bowled over

"If you did not have a savings account at Northern Rock, you probably think you have escaped any damage from the credit crunch. Think again: the fall-out from the crisis has only just started. By the time it's finished, if the gloomiest predictions prove accurate, house prices could be sharply lower, repossessions much higher, borrowing more expensive and harder to get - and a number of our leading banks could have slashed their dividends and tapped their investors for extra capital" Oh, oh, oh...

Posted by confused76 @ 10:25 PM 3 Comments

Merryn is good!!

Times: A plague on houses

"This is all horrible news for buy-to-let investors. Back in 1999, 73,200 buy-to-let mortgages were approved. Last year 850,000 were. Even more amazingly, a quarter of net new mortgages in the first half of this year went to buy-to-let investors. Clearly, a lot of people were convinced they were going to make a lot of money. Unfortunately, they are probably wrong. Why? Because the numbers dont add up. The rental yield on property is 3.5%-4%. The base rate is 5.75% and many buy-to-let mortgage rates are much higher than that." Please, tell that b@stard butch of Rosie Millard. UAA HHA HHAHH AH AHHA AH MWAUUA AUUAUAUUAUU

Posted by confused76 @ 10:18 PM 15 Comments

The b@stard b|tch is back!!

Times: Houses up by 5% this quarter! Greed is good!

"After all, we are not only avaricious but a nation of sad property bores, never happier than when pathetically working out our capital gain or settling down before Location, Location, Location, a television programme so dull, its main attraction is that it is fronted by the daughter of an aristocrat, thus helping class envy mate with property envy." who? Krusty?

Posted by confused76 @ 10:11 PM 2 Comments

Spanish house prices falling too..... Spanish house prices under the microscope

Spanish house prices fall 1.2% in the last quarter according to the biggest independent survey. Where the US and Ireland lead the way, Spain, the UK and the rest will surely follow.

Posted by andyh @ 08:21 PM 0 Comments

Irish house prices point the way - DOWN. Outlook described as dire.

Finfacts: Irish property prices - fall 1.3% in October

Article says it all, down nearly 5% this year already, and falls accelerating, with Nov and Dec to come looks like falls for 2007 will be 6-7% in total

Posted by andyh @ 07:22 PM 2 Comments

Proof if needed that 'executive' flats are tanking

Allsop: Residential Auctions

Check out Lot 353 (enter in online catalogue) at the forthcoming Allsop residential auction. It's a repossessed 2-bed flat in the Albert Dock (Liverpool) at a guide price of 235,000. Now check this link. Sold in August 2004 for 295,000. Assuming they get the asking price, that's a 20% fall over the past 3 years. Many more examples in this auction. House prices can only go up Krusty ....... really?

Posted by uncle chris @ 07:13 PM 3 Comments

1 in 5 BTL cannot cover costs with rent

Guardian: Vultures circle novice landlords

Britain's 116bn buy-to-let mortgage market is facing a tough six months that could end in thousands of novice landlords having their second homes repossessed, it was claimed yesterday. A survey due to be published next week by one broker is expected to show that 19% of landlords are failing to obtain enough rent to cover their mortgage payments. ***** My goodness, were they telling porkies to us again - why on Earth does anyone trust anything the VIs say.

Posted by uncle chris @ 06:40 PM 0 Comments

Forecast for 2008 - Thunder storms

FT: Postcodes show which properties will do worst

Across the country the outlook is now bleak for property owners. New builds will suffer more than period homes. Quality always outperforms in a difficult market; bad news for the BTL then.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:36 PM 1 Comments

How Europe will defend itself in the currency war .. bad news for London

The Telegraph: Will Europe impose exchange controls to head off disaster?

Excellent piece from Ambrose:
"Spanish, French, South Italian, and Irish house prices are already all falling."
"The measures are of course exchange controls. This is the nuclear option,..."
"...the effects of such a move on the City of London would be catastrophic ..."

Posted by voiceofreason @ 06:19 PM 5 Comments

Brown sees a Rosy future for the UK while the US crashes and burns

Reuters: UK economy to remain stable - Brown

Self appointed conomics expert Gordo Broon reckons that 'the first quarter of next year that will see the biggest impact on the American economy, particularly house-building and the housing market' and the UK will steer "a course of growth over the next period of time and that the British economy will continue to show itself, even faced with these difficult challenges, able to steer a course of stability."

Wool, pullover, sheeps eyes, nuff said.

Posted by enuii @ 06:16 PM 2 Comments

"Out of his depth"

Independent: Business leaders lose confidence in Chancellor

"The reputation of the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, among business leaders has slumped in the wake of the Northern Rock crisis, according to a survey. Fewer leading businessmen think Mr Darling understands business than last month and fewer believe that he is well-equipped to steer the economy through problems, while more of them feel he is out of his depth". Osborne said: "Alistair Darling's inept handling of the Northern Rock crisis has contributed to the collapse in public confidence in his ability to do his job."

Posted by alan @ 05:52 PM 0 Comments

The Canadian oildrum finance rundown. The Finance Round-Up: November 23rd 2007

Those Canadian Bears are at it again!! "Want an opinion after all? Here goes: We dont see how this finance pyramid can be left upright for much longer. We realize theres players out there with plenty of clout to squeeze some more out of it. Still, its an ex-pyramid. Its not just sleeping. Its a goner. Keyword until New Years: Freeze. ABCP in Canada, covered bonds in Europe, teaser rates in California, bank loans in China, theyre all as frozen as the turkey. And, happy Black Friday to you too"

Posted by planning4acrash @ 05:15 PM 0 Comments


Telegraph: Slowdown fuels hopes for rate cut

Quote fro article: 'Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, urged the Bank of England to address "the pressures on the housing market", saying: "A troubled housing market is likely to strengthen the case for an early response."' Erghh, I thought house prices are not supposed to be a factor in the interest rates? After all, we've had raging HPI over the last five years or so and nobody seemed to think that was a problem so why can't the market be allowed to correct itself? Hopefully, the price of credit and interest rates will disconnect but this article really hacked me off.

Posted by quiet guy @ 03:35 PM 0 Comments

Just how reliable are house price statistics if this is happening?

The Times: Buyers can benefit from a flagging market

The title is pretty obvious but the implications for house price statistics are intriguing. "The deal saved her just over 2,000, but North was also able to negotiate a private parking space that would normally have cost her 8,000." "At the Embankment development in Gravesend, Kent, the developer is offering a mortgage subsidy of 1,000 a month for two years on a 205,000 two-bedroom flat and 750 a month on a 172,5000 one-bed." I wonder how often this happens now? If it's a common thing, then the house price statistics we're being fed are false.

Posted by quiet guy @ 03:22 PM 0 Comments

Learning to do without

The Times: Revving up Americans to drop their obsession with shopping

Aplogies for being a little off topic but I think the questions asked in this article about spending and saving habits in the US will soon be quite pertinent here in the UK. During the credit binge of the last five years or so I have seen some evidence of consumer excess financed by MEWing or just racking up bit debts on the plastic. It's gonna be tough for some people dealing with nasty bailiffs and learning to do without.

Posted by quiet guy @ 03:15 PM 0 Comments

Just say "No"

Telegraph: Mortgage approvals hit record low

Mortgage approvals for home buyers fell to a record low last month, according to latest data from the British Bankers' Association, providing further signs that Britain's property boom is slowing.

Posted by bloke111 @ 10:36 AM 0 Comments

Vultures bitten off more than they can chew?

Firstrung: Hedge fund vulture firms circle wagons and attempt to blackmail government over Northern Rock - Cable

Philip Richards, chief executive of hedge fund company RAB Capital, said it would be "totally inexcusable" to deliberately force the company into administration by rejecting potential offers from Sir Richard Branson's Virgin and Luqman Arnold's Olivant. Richards, who bought into Northern Rock only after it fell into crisis this summer, said that either of the bids could result in the Government eventually getting back its 25 billion loan and allow the rebuilding of the bank.

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:47 AM 0 Comments

Subprime? Here? Noooo!! Impossible, It is different here, But... I thought... short supply... immigrants... divorces... all gone?

Times: Sub-prime time bomb is set to explode in Britain

"In the past, heavy sub-prime borrowers could find a cheap deal if their loan was equivalent to 95 per cent of the value of their home but the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio has dropped significantly." That was unsustainable madness, do you folks agree? Then there should be no doubt that a heavy correction is coming... regardless what BoE can or cannot cut next month (David, take notice)

Posted by confused76 @ 07:39 AM 25 Comments

No Sub-Prime in the UK then !

The Times: Sub-prime time bomb is set to explode in Britain

Apologies if this has been posted before i missed it, a good article though explaining why the most stretched will be hardest hit, i havent seen any real graphs or quotes to show how many 100% mortgages there are but this will have a serious affect on the market - Enjoy the read.

Posted by rimmer @ 06:55 AM 0 Comments

Friday, November 23, 2007

This should be worth a watch on Sunday

BBC Politics Show: End of the housing boom?

The bigger they come, the harder they fall. And in the South of England there certainly are some very big prices in the estate agents windows. So big, many believe, they are going to go down with a bang. At they are replaying a video from the 80s comedy show "Spitting Image".

Posted by hoyo @ 10:12 PM 11 Comments

Lenders factor in 30% fall in 'executive' flat prices

FT: UK lenders retighten rules for new flats

Mortgage lenders have further tightened their criteria for loans on all new-build flats in the latest sign of growing nervousness about the housing market as new figures showed a stunning slump in mortgage lending in the autumn. Alliance & Leicester has told mortgage brokers it will tighten its loan-to-value on new flats to 70 per cent amid reports of falling prices in many regional cities. ***** Hmmm - how many years have we been saying that new-build flats will become the slums of the future?

Posted by uncle chris @ 09:01 PM 6 Comments

Household Energy Costs to Rise

Times: Gazprom tells Europes consumers to prepare for gas price increases

Gazprom warns Europe that it should expect a 15-20% increase in natural gas prices as the soaring cost of oil feeds through into Russian gas contracts.

More inflation for the UK economic bonfire.

Posted by enuii @ 08:58 PM 0 Comments

The Penny has dropped!!!

BBC News: Private data 'also given to firm'

You may think this mad, but with all these hundreds of new laws, and a terrorist threat, that threaten the lives of all UK residence., why this Government would make all these protection measures. I put it to you, that, when the housing market as well as most financial sectors go belly-up, these individual aka the govt/establishment, will try anything including the existing legislation to quell any uprising should or if it were to occur. Thus the terror threat is not to protect the society, ityis or was merely a 'safeguard' to protect the government & their associates from the impending catastrophe, which we are all in agreement is going to borne on us.

Posted by stevie dee @ 08:56 PM 0 Comments

The Housing Bear Shows His Claws

New Statesman: UK house prices set to tumble

Sobering words from Jonathon Davis.

Posted by quiet guy @ 06:58 PM 0 Comments

Problems with ownership and mortgage backed securities

Foreclosure blog USA: Deutsch Bank foreclosures thrown out

This article suggests that some of the banks' problems are worse than announced. A judge has decided that the owners of mortage backed securities cannot foreclose. Therefore the securities are worth 'less' since they are not backed by onwership and resale of the properties.

Posted by hugh barnard @ 04:55 PM 0 Comments

UK Taxpayer expected to pay for liar loans?!

The Guardian: massive hole in Northern Rock's assets

Northern Rocks finances Loans have exceeded the value of the property on nearly 2,500 mortgages, with a value of 263m. Three years ago, the figure was just 13m on 158 properties. 10,000 Northern Rock customers are a month or more in arrears on their mortgages, on loans worth nearly 1.2bn. At the end of 2003, there were only 2,500 in the same difficulties, with mortgages worth 168.8m. In 2003 Northern Rock repossessed 80 properties. Last year more than 1,000 properties were repossessed. By the end of September this year 912 properties had already been repossessed.

Posted by smurf @ 04:02 PM 0 Comments

John Stepek wrote a real masterpiece

Firstrung: A brilliant article from Moneyweek

"So if you wanted to slow the market up, you might do things like making it harder for people to sell, by extending Hips across the entire market. And you might also promise to drop capital gains tax on second properties - if you just hold onto them until April. A cynic might even go so far as to suggest that the government might announce a re-think or a U-turn on CGT just before April, to avoid a glut of buy-to-let properties hitting the market. Perhaps Alistair Darling (or whoever's Chancellor by then - it's all up to Gordon Brown anyway) will say that the government needs more time to consult with the business world. All idle speculation of course, but you've got to think sneaky when there's someone as mendacious as Mr Brown in charge." MWUAUAUUHHHH

Posted by confused76 @ 03:23 PM 4 Comments

Another lender pulling out of the subprime market""""""

mortgage strategy: Bank of Ireland pulls sub prime range

The bank of Ireland is pulling it's range of subprime mortgage at 5pm today. It has emailed broker according to mortgage strategy.

Posted by moley20 @ 02:28 PM 11 Comments

Reposting this brilliant piece (with working link)

Times: Housing slump fears rise as new mortgages fall

it s the HIPs fault... sure. "The rate of UK mortgages approvals fell by 16 per cent in October as the Government's controversial Home Information Packs discouraged sellers from putting their homes up for sale and higher interest rates put off buyers taking out home loans" "The total value of mortgages approved fell from 18.5 billion in September to 15.1 billion in October and 25 per cent below the same month last year" WOOOOOOW! DEAD LIKE A DEAD DUCK

Posted by confused76 @ 01:50 PM 10 Comments

Vince Cable challenges banks to find solutions (or else) How Britain can avoid a subprime disaster

One possibility is allowing those in arrears because of circumstances beyond their control to move to shared ownership arrangements. Another is to move to active management by the Bank of England of bank reserves so that requirements are tightened in periods of boom and relaxed in recession. There is also the question of whether light touch regulation can survive when banks depend for their survival on lender of last resort privileges rather than the more brutal disciplines facing other companies.

Posted by tick tock @ 01:43 PM 5 Comments

Homes just aren't selling as like they used to!

Times Online: How to Sell Your Home

This couple in West Sussex are asking for 825k for their clapboard - ahem - sorry, New England style house in West Sussex. They're amazed that it's not selling after 2 months on the market and just don't know what to do. We know that the right buyers are out there its just a question of finding them, says Jane. They are going to be younger, probably City-based, with enough imagination to appreciate the Marrakesh influences of our interiors. Yes, that's right, younger and working in the City. I love that they are your typical 2nd / 3rd home on the rung couple trying to sell to a first or second-time buyer but their house is so ridiculoulsy over-priced that no-one in that age-group could ever afford or want it. Sellers are still living in dreamland.

Posted by an bearin bui @ 11:57 AM 15 Comments

Inflation figures fixed, no, surely not ?

BBC: Question Time

Looking back at a question time from 20th Sep. Very interesting for the number of resons. The 1st question was about Northern Rock, and it's intesting to see the attitude at the time from Hoon. Both Paddy Ashdown and Janet Street Porter alluded to a coming house price crash and blamed to fact on the bubble been created by a cetain chancellor allowing lenders to give out cheap credit. There is also a classic from John Redwood, accusing the government of fiddling the inflation figures before the 2005 election.

Posted by doomwatch @ 11:11 AM 14 Comments

Lomax states the obvious to dampen rate cut speculation

BBC News: Oil clouds rate cuts, Bank says

Rising energy prices are making it tricky to justify a cut in interest rates, the Bank of England's deputy governor Rachel Lomax has said.

Posted by tick tock @ 10:42 AM 6 Comments

Mortgage approvals at lowest figure since records began!

The Guardian: Mortgage approvals hit record low

The number of mortgages approved by banks for house purchases fell to a record low last month, figures showed today, in further evidence that the housing market is slowing down. The British Bankers' Association (BBA) said 44,105 mortgages had been approved for purchases during the month, down from 53,997 in September and 37.4% lower than the number in October 2006. This is the lowest figure since records began 10 years ago.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 10:03 AM 2 Comments


The Times: Housing Slump Fears as Mortgages Fall

David Dooks, the head of statistics at the BBA, said: Octobers data provide evidence of a rapidly slowing mortgage market and of consumers limiting their personal borrowing.

Posted by lukeskywalker @ 09:51 AM 0 Comments

Wheels coming off UK PLC!

Bloomberg: U.K. Third Quarter Economic Growth Unexpectedly Slows

U.K. economic growth unexpectedly slowed to the weakest pace in a year during the third quarter as service industries cooled and factory production stalled

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:28 AM 3 Comments

The UKs sub-prime market has shut down

MoneyWeek: Forget Hips here's the real threat to the housing market

Pundits are warning that the extension of Hips to all homes will see the housing market 'grind to a halt'. But first-time buyers shouldn't worry too much: news from elsewhere suggests prices are about to tumble.

Posted by mary @ 08:47 AM 13 Comments

The investors are getting out of UK property funds already!

Financial News: M&G imposes three-month wait on redemptions

M&G, the asset management subsidiary of UK insurer Prudential, has applied a three-month notice period for investors to redeem funds from an offshore property vehicle in the face of torrid UK property markets.

Posted by rollonapril2008 @ 08:41 AM 1 Comments

This is before the effects of the 'Le Crunch'

Firstrung: Mortgage approvals crash by 40% year on year

The approval figures, seen as the leading indicator of future demand, suggests that the UK housing market is starting to slow in response to the Bank of England's five interest rate hikes. These figures are too early to gauge the effects of the greater uncertainty created by the recent financial market 'turbulence'. Underlying net mortgage lending slowed to 5.0 bln stg, from 5.9 bln in September, though this is above the recent average of 5.6 bln, bringing annual growth down to around 13.4 pct. The BBA also said that gross mortgage lending rose slightly to 18.9 bln stg from 18.8 bln in September.

Posted by converted lurker @ 08:08 AM 5 Comments

From Friday 23rd funds into the housing markets will be even shorter

Guardian: UK sub-prime specialist stops mortgages for risky buyers

"As a result of the recent further tightening in the global capital markets, Kensington is increasing its focus on lower risk products by temporarily withdrawing its Adverse range until market conditions improve."The entire Kensington Adverse range will be withdrawn from close of business on Friday 23rd November 2007."Several high loan-to-value buy-to-let mortgages and self certification mortgages to self-employed workers will also be scrapped." YES YES YES YES YES THE MARKET IS DEAD

Posted by confused76 @ 08:04 AM 3 Comments

Europe beginning to crack

The Telegraph: Eurozone split as bond spreads hit 6-year high

Investors in Europe have suddenly become wary of Italian, Greek, Spanish, and Belgian sovereign bonds, driving spreads over German government bonds to the highest level in six years.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:00 AM 4 Comments

Say goodbye to your tax money

Guardian: Revealed: massive hole in Northern Rock's assets

A Guardian investigation of Northern Rock's books has found that 53bn of mortgages (over 70% of its mortgage assets) is not owned by the beleaguered bank, but by a separate offshore company. It means the pool of assets available to provide collateral for Northern Rock's creditors, including the BoE, is dramatically reduced, calling into question government claims that taxpayers' money is safe.

Posted by little professor @ 05:38 AM 13 Comments

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Home truths... finally

Times: If your house isnt selling, "do a Madonna" and beware agents desperately seeking business

The desperate need of EAs for business could have an adverse effect on sentiment and on property prices. UAUUUAHHH AHHAHHA An agent determined to secure an instruction will produce the most optimistic valuation. Certain estate agencies are notorious for this practice, but it is most dangerous when the mood has turned from exuberant to reflective. The inflated price will have to be cut when buyers fail to materialise. Such reductions send out the misleading message that the market is falling sharply, rather than merely proving that the initial valuation was unrealistic. MISLEADING MY @RSE!! ITS CRASHING

Posted by confused76 @ 08:49 PM 6 Comments

BTL is doomed

Times: Problems at Paragon Mortgages

"ARE WE LIKELY TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DEMAND FROM PROPERTY INVESTORS? Some commentators are predicting a drop in demand of as much as 20 per cent, while the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors predicts that buy-to-let is set to become the preserve of the wealthy. It has released figures suggesting that to purchase a buy-to-let property you would need to stump up a deposit of about 65,000 effectively 30 per cent of the propertys value." Dead in the water, dead in the water UAUUUU AUAUUAAUUAU

Posted by confused76 @ 08:44 PM 4 Comments

Rate cut all but decided

Times: Rate-setters split over cost of borrowing

Jonathan Loynes, of Capital Economics, said: Gieves vote may have been partly motivated by his extra interest in the financial markets in his role as Deputy Governor for financial stability and the criticism he received in the wake of the Northern Rock debacle.

Posted by confused76 @ 08:12 PM 5 Comments

Great article on but-to-lose

ThisWasMoney: The buy-to-let bubble bursts

So could buy-to-let be Britain's sub-prime? Certainly, the economics no longer stack up. Rental yields have fallen to the point that they no longer cover mortgage and maintenance costs. But not everyone will be able to carry the burden for long. The selftaught landlords, who came late to the market, might well seek to dump property, driving prices and rental values down further causing a downward spiral. YES YES AHAHAH HAHHAHH AHAHH

Posted by confused76 @ 03:32 PM 3 Comments

UK lender pulls sub-prime range

BBC News: UK lender pulls sub-prime range

Kensington Mortgages is pulling out of the sub-prime mortgage market because of current market conditions !

Posted by frustrated gardener @ 02:29 PM 11 Comments

The failure of England to qualify for Euro 2008 could hit economy

BBC: England failure 'may hit economy'

Phew, I was getting really concerned that a slowdown may be something to do with financial mismanagement and lack of House Price Inflation and associated MEWing but the good old BEEB have eased my worries by saying that a slowdown is do with the nation not buying England kit and merchandise. Thanks heavens.

Posted by denzil @ 02:04 PM 7 Comments

Another tremor in finance Banks bail out bond insurer CIFG

Caisse dEpargne and Banque Populaire, two French mutual banks, have pledged to inject $1.5bn into CIFG, a bond insurer, to enable it to weather the collapse of the subprime mortgage debt market.

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 01:18 PM 0 Comments

Interest rates to drop following McClaren

BBC: McClaren sacked as England coach

Steve McClaren has been sacked as England coach following his side's failure to qualify for Euro 2008. It is widely accepted that interest rates will be dropped in December along with a surge to buy over priced junk propery by buy-to-sweat investors and first-time-fibbers.

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:17 PM 4 Comments

Nationwide lets share of new mortgage business slip to 5.7% from 10%

Firstrung: Nationwide benefits from Northern Rock debacle as prime mortgage lending shrinks by 40%

Reading through the coded spin N-Wide only made 300mil, nothing in these days when you can burn through 25-30bil inside weeks. Also their share of the mortgage market has fallen from 10% to 5.7%, clever positioning? Its share of net mortgage lending fell to about 5.7% in the period, down from its typical market share of more than 10%. Nationwide revealed a conservative and sustainable approach to lending and focus on quality delivered prime net lending of 3.3 billion (September 2006: 5.6 billion) and total group net lending of 3.6 billion (September 2006: 5.9 billion), while ensuring asset quality remains much stronger than industry averages

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:49 PM 1 Comments

Update to the Real House Price Graph

Nationwide: UK House Prices Adjusted for Inflation STILL climbing

Well, looks like we ain't listening. For those of you waiting for the real house price graph to be updated, if you go the Nationwide website, it shows prices are STILL going up beyond the trend rate.

Posted by bob the builder @ 11:55 AM 3 Comments

Next Phase of Money Drying up

Times: Banks feel the pinch as covered bond trading is suspended

Banks won't lend to each other because they worried another one of them is broken. We will be going back to a barter economy soon! One place I read recons this "covered bond market" (anyone understand these?) might be shut till the end of the year. "A key source of liquidity for cash-strapped banks the covered bond market appeared to be closed off yesterday after trading between banks in the secondary market was officially suspended and the mortgage bank Abbey was forced to abandon a new issue of bonds."

Posted by happyrenterz @ 11:25 AM 9 Comments

Lending Becoming More Expensive

FT Alphaville: Securitisation Headaches for UK Mortgage Lenders

Securitising mortgages has become too expensive for HBOS. If the UK's biggest mortgage bank thinks securitisation is too expensive where does it leave the rest of them?!

Posted by the emperors new clothes @ 11:22 AM 0 Comments

As Predicted...

BBC News: Hips home packs get full roll-out

Home information packs (Hips) will be required for all properties being sold in England and Wales from 14 December, the government has announced.

Posted by si @ 10:57 AM 1 Comments

HIPS across the board in Dec

Guardian: HIPs to be extended to all properties

Woohoo! The government's controversial home information pack (Hip) scheme will be rolled out to all properties from December 14, it was announced today. The packs, which are already compulsory for all homes on the market with three bedrooms or more, are designed to speed up the selling process and reduce the number of sales that fall through.

Posted by pelethar @ 10:23 AM 1 Comments

Wall Street's black hole is getting bigger

CNN Money: Wall Street playing with more funny money

For the seven banks Fortune surveyed, level three assets totaled over $430 billion, equivalent to 110% of the banks' combined equity. That number will likely increase in the fourth quarter, making bank balance sheets even harder to read

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:20 AM 0 Comments

No room for IR cuts!

FT: Steady output eases pressure for rates cut

Manufacturers will increase prices over the next three months, according to a survey published on Tuesday by the CBI employers body. An unexpectedly resilient set of output figures and the evidence of pricing pressure revealed in the survey made it more likely that the Bank of England would postpone cutting rates, economists said.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:11 AM 0 Comments

Getting pwned

This is Money: Paragon sparks fear of meltfown in buy-to-let

Paragon shares have crashed by about 90% this year, making it worth just 90m. It needs to raise 280m by Feb to repay its obligations to the banks. In a matter of months, buy-to-let has gone from a great source of income to a potential disaster area.

Posted by little professor @ 09:02 AM 6 Comments

House prices only ever go up!

This Is Money: Boom but no bust for housing

Stephen Nickell is chair of the National Housing and Planning Advice Unit, a quango which advises the government on property prices. He is a former member of the BoE Monetary Policy Committee, which sets interest rates. He says: "I wouldn't be all gloom and doom about the housing market. Any hint of a slowdown and there are people who will come forward - there are queues of people waitingto get a share of the action. The housing market has this fundamental support." It all boils down to the basic law of supply and demand. Houses are too scarce, so prices will carry on rising, he explains. "It is not a bubble phenomenon, but based on fundamentals."

Posted by little professor @ 08:50 AM 25 Comments

Have we reached a turning point?

MoneyWeek: The real reason why people lose confidence in markets

Whilst pundits like to blame media scaremongering, it is the sudden realisation of just how much we now spend on petrol - or the collapse of Paragon or Northern Rock - that really rattles us.

Posted by mary @ 08:46 AM 2 Comments

Banana Britain Storm worsens over UK Revenues data loss

If you still believe in "economic stability", "no more boom ..." and the rest of the spin, welcome to the western hemisphere's favourite recently-discovered banana republic. Rampant HPI, debt out of control, a run on a bank, massive and ineffective public sector, faked statistics and staggering incompetence from a government that would like to know everything about you and watch your every move. What happens when the ID card database winds up in the hands of some jihad-oid death brigade? Thanks guys - "the innocent have nothing to fear"?

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 06:47 AM 26 Comments

Git Rock chief could get 380,000 pay-off

Adam Applegarth, the chief of Northern Rock, looks set to get as much as 380,000 when he leaves the embattled bank next year, in spite of claims that any payment would be an insult to the millions who have suffered from the lenders turmoil.

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 06:40 AM 6 Comments

Somebody smelt the coffee Fears of slowdown in US hit markets

A growing realisation that the global economy will not escape a US slowdown saw stocks around the world tumble on Wednesday while investors sought safety in government bonds. Fears intensified amid concerns that more bad news from banks could emerge while US markets are closed for Thursdays Thanksgiving holiday.

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 06:39 AM 0 Comments

Check your rating of your brokerage account

The Street: E*Trade in Free Fall

I have an account with interactive brokers and it has a rating of BBB which is slightly concerning.
I have yet to check other brokers that trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange and compare.
Anyone one with any recommendations of what broker to switch to?

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 06:09 AM 2 Comments

select brokerage firms that are financially healthy

Safe Haven: Three Steps To Protect Your Funds Now

Short piece summing up how to keep your money safe. Lots of good links to other articles.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 05:55 AM 1 Comments

What's a derivative???

Telegraph: FTSE battered as Northern Rock faces relegation

Beleaguered Northern Rock is facing the humiliating prospect of being relegated from the FTSE 100 straight to the Smallcap index. Such a dramatic decline has not been seen since the dotcom bust. Sub-prime worries affected other lenders and homebuilders, and derivatives are now pricing in a 7% fall in house prices next year.

Posted by little professor @ 12:07 AM 7 Comments

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

HIP assessors plead poverty

BBC News: Hip assessors claim lack of work

Another example of inflated Government stats, 'It's quite clear... there are far too many people now qualified to become home inspectors and energy assessors compared to the government's statistics of what they need'. The problem apparently is that 'too few homes are being put on the market to make a living' - Oh Dear

Posted by enuii @ 08:38 PM 4 Comments

Don't Bank On Interest Rate Cuts

Fool: Don't Bank On Interest Rate Cuts

The November industrial trends survey from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) shows that the 21% net balance of manufacturers saying that prices will rise next quarter is the joint-second highest since 1995. Uhuuhhhhuuuuuuuuuuuuuhuuuhuhuhu

Posted by confused76 @ 07:53 PM 4 Comments

This sounds like a finance industry wheeze (a bit like the super SIV) - Can anyone explain to me what's happening here?

Bloomberg: Europe Suspends Mortgage Bond Trading Between Banks

Are banks taking away their toys until people start to play 'fairly'? European banks agreed to suspend trading in the $2.8 trillion market for mortgage debt known as covered bonds to halt a slump that has closed the region's main source of financing for home lenders.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 05:31 PM 11 Comments

Tick, Tick, Tick

FT: The $25bn Citi CDO liquidity put and who else has one

Several CDOs were created by Citi in 2005 that borrowed from technology used in designing SIVs- another market in which Citi was a leader. The rationale was that a CDO which could issue short-term commercial debt (alongside its traditional issuance) would have access to a broader funding market and would be able to more dynamically manage its funding portfolio. To mitigate any CP rollover risk, Citi entered into a series of agreements which forced it to buy the CDO CP if no one else would. As Mr Rubin calls them, liquidity puts.

Posted by alan @ 05:27 PM 0 Comments

Whatever they've done, demand the other, then offer less Selling houses: Purchasers put off by perfection

Fully renovated properties are not selling, as buyers seek out unmodernised homes to 'do up' as a way of adding value in a slow market. Zoe Dare Hall reports

Posted by saintjay @ 05:05 PM 2 Comments

Opinion from TV gimp - Phil Spencer - 20/11/07: Property market: Sell in the new year

Television property expert Phil Spencer tells Graham Norwood why the market will be better in 2008 Phil Spencer has a simple message for owners wanting to sell their homes despite the market downturn and the approach of Christmas: don't do it.

Posted by saintjay @ 05:02 PM 0 Comments

BoE determined to cut rates. Balls :( It's like 2005 all over again :(

Telegraph: Rate Cut is a "Real Possibility" next month

The Bank of England appears to be going to lower rates even though inflation is rising and oil is near $100 USD a barrel. It's like 2005 all over again. And just to keep the housing market going. BALLS :(

Posted by david20040_0 @ 04:09 PM 18 Comments

BTL to the cleaners

FT: If housing affordability is such a big issue in the UK, why does every man and his dog seem to be a landlord these days?

Buoyed by rising prices and low interest rates, the growth in private residential investment has been extraordinary. But the party could be over. For starters, the numbers no longer add up. Net rental yields are now below financing costs and are likely to stay there. That means landlords have to support their investment from other sources of income while praying that capital values rise. Already demand for buy-to-let mortgages is slowing, and in the third quarter 6 per cent of landlords with tenancies up for renewal chose to sell instead, A THIRD MORE THAN A YEAR AGO AUUUUUUHHHHAHAHHAHHA

Posted by confused76 @ 03:37 PM 1 Comments

The system isn't unwinding of its own accord

Bloomberg: Europe Suspends Mortgage Bond Trading Between Banks

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- European banks agreed to suspend trading in the $2.8 trillion market for mortgage debt known as covered bonds to halt a slump that has ***closed the region's main source of financing for home lenders***.

Posted by lukeskywalker @ 03:30 PM 0 Comments

Propertysnake being used by EAs

The Independent: A hagglers market

Chris Wood, vice-president of the National Association of Estate Agents, says that the Naea itself uses the Propertysnaketo figure out who these bad estate agents (who overvalue properties in order to get attract business) are. British buyers are now going to have to involve themselves in a famously un-British pastime: haggling. Is it time for buyers to start making those famous cheeky offers?

Posted by little professor @ 12:56 PM 10 Comments

Forget London - the next boom will be in born-again mining towns

Times Online: Tin revival drives delighted men back down derelict Cornish mine

"The last working tin mine in Cornwall has been given a new lease of life, nine years after it closed, thanks to demand for metal in China and the developing world. South Crofty is expected to employ 400 people and help to regenerate one of the poorest regions in Britain." --- Could this start happing all across the former coal-mining regions of northern England and south Wales? What could this mean for the relative property values of the south Wales valleys compared to London?

Posted by drewster @ 12:11 PM 8 Comments

Dump property - invest in mining stocks and gold

MoneyWeek: Why now's the best time of year to buy Canadian miners

Commodities expert Dominic Frisby reports on why Canadian mining stocks present some fantastic buying opportunities, plus the outlook for gold and the UK property market.

Posted by damien @ 11:47 AM 0 Comments

BTL is over

Independent: Is the buy-to-let boom over?

Britain's biggest buy-to-let lender crashed yesterday. The game may be up for property investors

Posted by confused76 @ 10:43 AM 9 Comments

Trouble in America

The Wall Street Journal: Mortgage Giant Fuels Worries With Steep Loss

The hoped-for saviors of the U.S. housing market could use some first aid themselves. The wider-than-expected $2.03 billion loss posted yesterday by Freddie Mac for the third quarter makes clear that the mortgage giant and its rival Fannie Mae -- government-chartered companies that buy and guarantee mortgages -- have less power to prop up the housing market than some politicians hoped. Freddie Mac said it recently has been forced to sell mortgages to ease its financial woes, and it is rushing to raise capital through a sale of preferred stock likely to be launched next week.

Posted by the emperors new clothes @ 10:38 AM 0 Comments

Meltdown Coming

FT: standby for generalised systemic financial meltdown

Gold is for optimists. Im diversifying into canned goods. Yes this guy really sees things heading over a cliff.

Posted by happyrenterz @ 10:10 AM 7 Comments

Where's the net figures?

Firstrung: Is the CML trying to bury bad news by only releasing gross lending mortgage figures?

CML Director General Michael Coogan commented: "The next few months will be a testing time as ongoing pressures in financial markets feed through into the wider economy. Funding constraints will continue to restrict lending activity and make loans more expensive. The Bank of England's recent Quarterly Inflation Report reinforced the likelihood of a reduction in rates early next year, and that should provide some relief for borrowers sooner rather than later."

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:37 AM 3 Comments

Net advances were 1,124m in October 2007, versus 1,661m in October 2006

Firstrung: Building Society net advances down 30% year on year - BSA

"Although building society lending in October was greater than in previous months, activity is still subdued in comparison to last year, with gross advances amounting to 4,654m in October, compared to 4,936m in October 2006. The mortgage market looks set to cool further as the impact of the higher interest rates and tighter credit conditions more generally continue to feed through."

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:36 AM 1 Comments

Apparently it's due to pre Xmas couldn't make it up

Firstrung: Three-month sterling rate is the highest since 19 September

The strong demand for cash over the traditionally illiquid New Year period has pushed three-month sterling BBA LIBOR rates to a two-month high. Interbank lending rates rose during August and September as banks became more reluctant to lend to each other amid market volatility and worries stemming from the spread of the US sub-prime crisis into global markets. Rates reverted to historically more normal levels for shorter-term lending, before beginning to rise again in early November. Today's three-month sterling rate of 6.48625 is the highest since 19 September.

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:34 AM 0 Comments

Further evidence on the BTL squeeze

International Herald Tribune: British mortgage lender falls as it considers share sale

Shares of Paragon Group, the British mortgage lender that gets all its funding in capital markets, sank as much as 50 percent Tuesday after the company said profit had fallen and it might need to raise 280 million in a share sale. "The future for Paragon hinges on the reopening of the securitization market," said Simon Willis, an analyst at NCB Group in London. If the market does not loosen by February, he said, Paragon might be forced to look for a buyer.

Posted by joe le taxi @ 08:57 AM 0 Comments

Distrubing common signs

BBC News: What caused Japans recession?

Worried? you bet. This report shares a lot of what is happening now with what happened to Japan - and they are STILL suffering. It's only unemployment that is different - or is it? maybe the figures we see aren't all we should believe?

Posted by steve neale @ 08:52 AM 7 Comments

Merryn takes on Inside Track

MoneyWeek: Who wants to be a property millionaire?

Is it really possible to become a property millionaire in a matter of years? Even when property prices across the board are falling? A good many people would have you think so. According to Brad Rosser of Inside Track it 'just depends where you buy and what you buy'. So Merryn went along to one of their free seminars to find out what they knew that she didn't.

Posted by mary @ 08:37 AM 7 Comments

Are we seeing tech advancement to change our lives

The Telegraph: Surfer dude stuns physicists with theory of everything

"It may even be possible to test his theory, which predicts a host of new particles, perhaps even using the new Large Hadron Collider atom smasher that will go into action near Geneva next year."

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:37 AM 19 Comments

Rates stay the same

Times Online: Bank votes 7-2 to keep interest rate unchanged

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7 to 2 in favour of holding the UK interest rate at 5.75 per cent as it emerged deputy Governor Sir John Gieve voted for a quarter-point reduction to borrowing costs.

Posted by peter @ 08:33 AM 0 Comments

What will happen to my mortgage?

Times Online: What will happen to my mortgage and my hard-won savings?

Northern Rock and Paragon shareholders should sell now...Paragon may increase mortgage rates...the banks' future is uncertain, where all this leads to?

Posted by peter @ 08:32 AM 0 Comments

LOL! Blanchflower again! This guy is so dovish I'm surprised he doesn't just take off...

BBC: Bank voted 7-2 to hold UK rates

Policymakers at the Bank of England voted 7-2 to keep UK interest rates at 5.75% earlier this month, minutes show. The two policymakers who did not vote to hold rates were David Blanchflower as well as deputy governor John Gieve.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:08 AM 0 Comments

Bye bye buy to let

ThisWasMoney: Buy-to-let faces meltdown threat

"The rug has been pulled out from underneath Britain's buy-to-let mortgage boom, threatening a meltdown in the property market. Paragon plans to slash the number of buy-to-let mortgages it offers by 50% in 2008 - a lead which other lenders are expected to follow. Concerns about the future of buy-to-let mortgages were fuelled by a separate announcement from Bradford & Bingley - the UK's biggest buy-to-let mortgage lender - that it has taken urgent measures to raise ready cash." Bye bye

Posted by confused76 @ 07:34 AM 7 Comments

Flashback: Dorothy, Kansas, Bye Bye.

House Price Crash NewsBlog: Mewing like a cat on LSD.......

From 9 months ago: Feb 27th 2007

Some friends of mine keep asking me "So when is this big crash going to happen then". I tell them, be patient, you'll see the first creaks soon enough. THEM: "Yeah, but you've been saying that for the last 5 years - and my house is now worth 5 times what it was 5 years ago, so you're the mug" ME: "True enough, but tell me, have you actually sold and realised that profit or are you just mewing like a cat on LSD? When the stock market tightens credit, your house may resemble an engine block strapped to your body as you are thrown into the River of Financial Despair"

Posted by lvmreader @ 07:01 AM 0 Comments

Food, Shelter, Transport or.....vanity?

Shanghai Daily: Ethanol, touted as an option to oil, turns out be hot air

ETHANOL, the centerpiece of President George W. Bush's plan to wean the United States from oil, is 2007's worst energy investment. The corn-based fuel tumbled 57 percent from last year's record of US$4.33 a gallon and drove crop prices to a 10-year high. Output in the US tripled after Morgan Stanley, hedge fund firm D.E. Shaw & Co and venture capitalist Vinod Khosla helped finance a building boom. Even worse for investors and the Bush administration, energy experts contend ethanol isn't reducing oil demand. Scientists at Cornell University say making the fuel uses more energy than it creates, while the National Research Council warns ethanol production threatens scarce water supplies.

Posted by lvmreader @ 06:14 AM 4 Comments

The smell of coffee gets stronger everyday

Bangkok Post: Nikkei falls below 15,000 on US losses

Tokyo stocks fell in Tuesday morning trading, sending the benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average below 15,000. Lingering worries about the US mortgage crisis kept Tokyo market players away from buying as the stronger yen, which makes Japanese goods more expensive abroad

Posted by stevie dee @ 05:09 AM 0 Comments

last week, though credit markets have deteriorated dramatically since Worse to come, warns Bank chief

The Bank of England deputy governor has warned that money markets may be set for an even bigger squeeze before the end of the year, as wholesale borrowing rates soared yet higher.Sir John Gieve, the Bank's deputy governor for financial stability, told a hedge fund conference that "there still may be more bad news to come".His words echo those of the Governor, Mervyn King, The three-month London interbank offered rate for sterling, known as BBA Libor, rose to a two-month high of 6.49pc, indicating that banks are unwilling or unable to lend to each other.

Posted by chris @ 03:06 AM 0 Comments

The crisis has escalated from the mortgage providers to the investment banks, and fund managers trading in bonds benign D&O market was about to turn as the credit crunch is

The insurance industry could face a $6bn (3bn) bill for claims against directors relating to the sub-prime mortgage lending crisis.William Sturge, a partner at law firm LG, said legal action is expected to trigger many directors and officers' (D&O) insurance policies.He said the ".Markel - one of the largest underwriters of non-US policies in Lloyd's - said the potential for claims was "enormous". David Jones, managing director of its PI division, said: "There will be class actions, mainly in the US, although there could be repercussions in the UK." "

Posted by chris @ 03:00 AM 0 Comments

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

More than one in 10 of all hedge funds will go out of business this year as the rate of failure doubles, the head of Man Group, the worlds biggest listed hedge fund manager, has predicted. Man Grp Chief Exec: One Hedge Fund In 10 To Go Bust

The market turmoil this year has claimed a large number of hedge fund scalps, with notable collapses including funds from Bear Stearns, Australia's Basis Capital and Sowood Capital. UBS closed its Dillon Read Capital after subprime losses, and many other funds have closed to withdrawals and are struggling to survive, including some from Mallorca-based Absolute Capital and London's Cambridge Place Investment Management and Wharton Asset Management.

Posted by chris @ 10:56 PM 0 Comments

Paragon warns of collapse

The Times: Business News Article

Oh dear oh dear... What tangled webs they have weaved...

Posted by orwell @ 08:51 PM 0 Comments

A joy to read

FT: Rightmove forecasts house price decrease in November

Sorry I am posting old news, music to my ears: "average UK house price is 239,986 in November down from 241,642 in October" expect more price falls in December and in the first part of next year" seriously consider dropping your price and taking an offer now rather than holding out, and offered even less in a few months time," "motivated sellers are starting to cut their prices and will need to be the cheapest on the street to sell" "major conurbations"

Posted by confused76 @ 08:28 PM 3 Comments

This isn't an "I'm a celebrity" party

Bloomberg: At Subprime Event Too Early to Tell Who'll Survive

They dubbed it ``The Survivors' Conference.'' In early November, 2,000 people who handle asset- backed securities for a living crowded into a ballroom at the JW Marriott hotel in Orlando, Florida, just 3 miles from Disney World, to hear speaker after speaker explain why 2008 may be their worst year ever.

Posted by alan @ 07:16 PM 0 Comments

Pass the parcel - hey, it's Christmas

Bloomberg: Bradford & Bingley Sells $8.7 Billion Loan Portfolios

Bradford & Bingley Plc, the U.K.'s biggest lender to landlords, sold 4.2 billion pounds ($8.7 billion) of home and commercial property loans to improve cash flow as credit costs increase.

Posted by alan @ 07:07 PM 7 Comments

anything about property slowdowns is a 'pack of lies'

This is Money: My experience of an Inside Track seminar

The Money Week Editor gives a great account of a property seminar where she's told the subprime crisis is not an issue, it's a 'cracking' time to buy in Florida and that anything about property slowdowns - especially in the newspapers - is a 'pack of lies'. Of course!

Posted by sappy @ 03:54 PM 0 Comments

How John Prescott wasted 2.2bn

MoneyWeek: Prescotts pointless housing policy

Why has the government been turfing people out of their homes and knocking down perfectly sound houses? It's all down to the Pathfinder scheme - possibly the most ill-thought-out policy this Government has ever introduced.

Posted by mary @ 03:29 PM 20 Comments

More credit crunchy nut

Times Online: Brokers predict the end of ultra-low rate mortgages

confused76 posted this in a comment on another article, I felt it was worth sharing on the main blog. "The best two-year fixed rate you can get is 5.48% from Giraffe Money. Lenders are becoming more cautious in light of the credit crunch and many will look to widen their margins and add an extra layer of protection in the coming months."

Posted by drewster @ 02:14 PM 11 Comments

Mwhauauuuu auuuuuauuhhhhhahhhh

Guardian: Lender's woes send chill through 'try-to-let' market

"It shouldn't be called buy-to-let, it should be called try-to-let. The whole industry needs a rethink.' The buy-to-let market has grown strongly in recent years on the back of hundreds of thousands of private investors snapping up flats and houses to rent. However, there are increasing signs that rents are falling and many buy-to-let investors are not making enough money from their tenants to cover their mortgages

Posted by confused76 @ 02:08 PM 10 Comments

Forecast for the housing market

Times Online: Property market: your questions answered

Experts are predicting that the property market next year will be stagnant rather than suffering any significant falls. Owners will simply hold off selling, if they cant secure a price they are happy with, and the reduced number of homes for sale should keep prices high.

Posted by peter @ 02:06 PM 6 Comments

US housing market collapse

Times Online: Rumsfeld logic serves as guide to direction of US economy

There are, in principle, three ways that a housing collapse can affect the broader economy and financial markets: 1. Directly, through a cutback in construction activity. 2. Indirectly, through a negative wealth effect on consumer confidence and demand for credit. 3. Indirectly, through damage to bank capital and, thus, the supply of credit.

Posted by peter @ 12:55 PM 2 Comments

the 4 pint has arrived

Guardian Unlimited: Price of a pint could rise 60%

Apparently the bad weather has caused an increase in the price of hops. Yeah right.

Posted by cyril @ 11:47 AM 8 Comments

Of course, this isn't great news for the US. But it could be very bad news for the rest of us too...

MSN Money: Has the US recession already begun?

Sorry if this has been posted already.

Posted by disillusioned @ 10:17 AM 6 Comments

Northern Rock Shares Take a Fresh Battering!

Guardian: Business Article

34 minutes ago they were reporoting that Northern Rock Shares have slumped to 60 pence valuing the company at 250 squillion!!!!!! That is 1% of the value that Swervyn Mervyn allowed to be put on it.... Nice to know that the economies in good hands...

Posted by orwell @ 10:00 AM 1 Comments

The auction houses are going to be busy !

Daily Mail: One million homeowners face a 60 per cent jump in mortgage rates

More than a million homeowners face a jump in mortgage payments of up to 60 per cent when their cheap fixed-rate deals end. Analysts fear the impact will result in a surge in repossessions. The Council of Mortgage Lenders is so concerned that it has taken the extraordinary step of suggesting that some homeowners should sell their property rather than risk losing it.

Posted by bearshare1616 @ 09:44 AM 17 Comments

Buy to Let - alive and well, hmmm okay if you say so.

Telegraph: Buy-to-let specialist Paragon crashes

In a clear warning that the bank could be forced into run-off, Paragon said that, although the value of its existing mortgage assets "remains strong", "if we are unable to secure new warehouse facilities... we will have to scale back new lending activities significantly and manage costs accordingly". Any counter arguments - anyone ?

Posted by darren @ 09:34 AM 3 Comments

Paragon hit by finance problems

BBC News: Paragon hit by finance problems

Another one bites the dust !!

Posted by bearshare1616 @ 09:27 AM 18 Comments

Is it possible for this to hit zero ???

EuroInvestor: Northern Rock

Any experts out there that can explain what could happen to Northern Rock if the share price is valued at next to nothing ? Quite dramatic stuff, looking at the graph, it can only go one way - - - - down.

Posted by darren @ 09:26 AM 0 Comments

Stockmarkets set to get worse

MoneyWeek: Why the market turmoil is far from over

Even by this years volatile standards, yesterday was a horrendous day for global stock markets. The FTSE had its worst day since the big credit squeeze in August and the Dow slumped below 13,000. So what happened?

Posted by mary @ 09:08 AM 0 Comments

Paragon Shares Plunge After Lender Plans Rights Offer

Bloomberg: Paragon Shares Plunge After Lender Plans Rights Offer

Paragon Group shares sank as much as 50 percent in London trading after profit fell more than analysts estimated at the U.K. mortgage lender, which may need to raise as much as 280 million pounds ($547 million) by selling new shares. Paragon said it slowed lending to new customers and withdrew certain mortgage products to limit the risk of writing unprofitable business.

Posted by sag3000 @ 08:35 AM 0 Comments

BTL VI Uber-scum looking to go the way of NRK

Telegraph: Buy-to-let group Paragon crashes on crisis

Shares in buy-to-let specialist Paragon crashed this morning (down 50%) after the company warned that it may have to launch an emergency rights issue as the credit crisis begins to dry up alternative sources of funding. Yes! This may mean I won't have to read anymore BTL advertising masquerading as a 'news article' on the BBC website

Posted by surfgatinho @ 07:56 AM 1 Comments

Banks hit the new low

Times Online: Credit jitters send UK bank shares tumbling

Jitters over the credit crunch inflicted fresh pain on investors yesterday as shares in Alliance & Leicester, Bradford & Bingley and other banks fell heavily and the wider stock market lurched lower.

Posted by peter @ 07:55 AM 0 Comments

The end of Paragon - certainly looks that way

Times: Paragons future in doubt

Paragon shares in free fall today; where Paragon leads the Buy to Let market surely follows.

Posted by andyh @ 07:46 AM 0 Comments

Re takes $1 billion subprime hit Swiss Reinsurance, the biggest reinsurer in the world

Swiss Re takes $1 billion subprime hit as crisis spreads beyond banks Swiss Reinsurance, the biggest reinsurer in the world, said Monday that it had taken a $1.07 billion write-down for the value of some derivatives, making it the latest casualty of the U.S. subprime crisis that is now spreading beyond lenders and investment banks

Posted by chris @ 06:57 AM 0 Comments

It would be hard to imagine a worse moment for the Federal Reserve and the market to collide over an interest rate cut Fed and markets squaring up for rate-cut showdown

It would be hard to imagine a worse moment for the Federal Reserve and the market to collide over an interest rate cut that the market wants and expects, but the US central bank is not prepared to deliver. Yet the risks of such a collision appear to be increasing by the day. Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, says the Fed and the markets are locked in an "increasingly rigid standoff" over the likelihood of an interest rate cut at the next Fed policy meeting in December.

Posted by chris @ 06:07 AM 0 Comments

How long before desperate housebuilders will be forced to start slashing prices?

times online: Barratt chief calls for cut in interest rates to stem falling sales

Shares in Barratt fell yesterday to a four-year low, down 5 per cent to 480p, part of a wider sell-off in both housebuilding and commercial property stocks as fears intensified that both property markets were heading for a repeat of the 1990s recession.

Posted by sold out @ 05:39 AM 13 Comments

AUSTRALIA could go to the polls again within 18 months Greens warns of double-dissolution

AUSTRALIA could go to the polls again within 18 months if Labor wins Saturday's election but not a Senate majority, the Greens say. The coalition is fighting to retain a wafer-thin majority of 39-37 in the upper house. The Greens, Australian Democrats, Family First and independent candidates Nick Xenophon and Pauline Hanson are vying for the balance of power when the new Senate sits from July 1, 2008.

Posted by chris @ 05:27 AM 1 Comments

Monday, November 19, 2007

Darling the Illustrious wont be drawn on full loan repayment

Times: Taxpayers to foot the Northern Rock bill

In the last few weeks this Government has provided the equivalent of 30 Millennium Domes to this bank without even the prospect of a decent pop concert at the end of it.

Posted by enuii @ 08:32 PM 11 Comments

London price madness grinds to a halt

London Evening Standard: Housing market logjam could see prices fall

"The London property market is stuck in a logjam that could lead to a sharp fall in prices, estate agents warned today. Ed Mead, sales director at Douglas & Gordon, said prices in central London were already down about five per cent." Chris Brown, president-elect of the National Association of Estate Agents cites lots of muffled excuses, apart from the main reason; PROPERTY IS OVER-PRICED Poxtons minis seen at car auctions.

Posted by doomwatch @ 07:45 PM 2 Comments

Profits will fall as Barratt feels the Cold

Times: Barratt sees sharp fall in sales of private homes

Private buyers down 14 percent as punters stay away from Barratt developments as housing market falters at the start of a long and economically cold winter for the housing biz.

Posted by enuii @ 06:20 PM 6 Comments

Darling on the Rack over the Rock

In The News: Darling defends Rock decisions

Rock now has government backed loans totalling 24BN Pounds yet its share price falls 21% further today as Darling insists that the lending was all guaranteed against "quality assets" including mortgages!

Posted by enuii @ 05:10 PM 15 Comments

Crash confirmed ?

Thomson Financial News Limited: UK social housing likely to keep strong government support - S&P

MUMBAI, Nov. 19, 2007 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- Standard & Poor's (NYSE:MHP) Ratings Services said the UK government's announcement of planned changes to the social housing sector is unlikely to result in any change to the already-strong support to the sector

Posted by ash4781 @ 04:11 PM 0 Comments

Markets Drops Again

Reuters: FTSE skids as credit woes hit banks

Going down, down, dooooooooown.

Posted by speculatorone @ 03:58 PM 1 Comments

Do we really want this? Year Zero in USA working-class neighbourhoods

CNN: Cleveland's mortgage meltdown has sparked a crime wave in the nation's hardest hit area for troubled homeowners.

Most of us who read this blog secretly or openly hope prices will crash here like they are in the USA at the moment. Read this and be careful what you wish for !

Posted by happyrenterz @ 03:35 PM 17 Comments

Is the rollercoaster about to drop precipitously? The nervous wait before the plunge

The US experience shows what should have been obvious: house prices can fall without a recession as a trigger. Dizzying height and a rise in interest rates to modest levels are enough. The UK has both those attributes in spades. ......That is a lesson easily learned from a look at the US. (Part of the excitement of a rollercoaster ride is to stand in the queue listening to the screams of those whose ride began earlier.) US house buyers were told that a national fall in house prices would not happen. It has.

Posted by ticktock @ 03:32 PM 1 Comments

No rate cuts, you'd think ?

BBC: Oil prices rise after Opec summit

Or will we still see the press pig VIs flogging their dead horses as they now clearly think the sole purpose of the MPC is to control UK house prices (UK economy ?) as opposed to inflation ?

Posted by doomwatch @ 03:23 PM 0 Comments

Is this what bush, blair and brown mean by stability!!

CNN: Crime scene: foreclosure

Cleveland's mortgage meltdown has sparked a crime wave in the nation's hardest hit area for troubled homeowners. The first thing that happened after owners moved out of foreclosed homes in Slavic Village was that squatters and looters moved in, according to Mark Wiseman, director of the Cuyahoga County Foreclosure Prevention Program. "In the inner city, it takes about 72 hours for a house to be looted after it is vacant," he said. Putting a house back together takes money, more money than the restored home could bring on the market. And stopgap programs, such as razing derelict houses, aren't feasible - Cuyahoga County only has a few million dollars available for demolition work, and Wiseman estimates at least $100 million is needed.

Posted by mark @ 02:59 PM 0 Comments

We are in full crash swing

Bloomberg: U.K. Home Prices Fall; Sellers Told to Ask for Less

The average asking price dropped 0.7 percent to 239,986 pounds ($491,000) from October, Britain's most-used property Web site said in a statement today. From a year earlier, the cost of a home rose 7.9 percent, the least in 17 months. Rightmove conducted its survey from Oct. 7 to Nov. 10.

Posted by confused76 @ 02:58 PM 9 Comments


Daily Mail: Logjam may force down property prices

The London property market is stuck in a logjam that could lead to a sharp fall in prices, estate agents have warned. Over-optimistic sellers are refusing to accept 'too-low' offers, creating a massive gap between asking prices and actual sale values.

Posted by bunnykins @ 02:12 PM 0 Comments

London property market under threat

Evening Standard: Housing market logjam could see prices fall

The London property market is stuck in a logjam that could lead to a sharp fall in prices, estate agents warned today.

Posted by joel @ 02:11 PM 0 Comments

Same old same old

New Statesman: Will UK house prices crash?

No, says CML's Paul Samter. Prices realised may have dropped relative to asking prices, but this is a long way from a full blown house price crash. The balance between supply and demand, the strong UK economy, predicted falls in interest rates next year and a shortage of housing supply will help to support prices.

Posted by little professor @ 01:57 PM 3 Comments

US reconstructed M3 growing at 17.9pc

Market Oracle: US Dollar Devaluation is a Supply and Demand Problem

17.9pc growth means a doubling rate of 4 years.

With wages and inflation less than 5pc this newly created money (which is debt) is not being eroded away. The final blow-off debt spkie continues.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:28 PM 3 Comments

First of many?

BBC News: Broker closed for sub-prime loans

A mortgage broker has been closed down and two others fined for mis-selling sub-prime mortgages. The Financial Services Authority (FSA) took the action against the three small firms after investigating the sale of sub-prime mortgages earlier this year.

Posted by Webmaster @ 01:17 PM 4 Comments

David, go to hollywood!

Times: Home economics: a loss of market confidence

"Sometimes, though, Rics is in danger of creating a situation that its members are keen to avoid and its head-office economists do not expect: a loss of market confidence, leading to a sharp fall in house prices." "A report by Michael Saunders, of Citigroup, called Bye-Bye, Buy to Let, argues that the economic fundamentals have turned firmly against buy-to-let. Rental yields are below mortgage rates, in some cases, decisively so � the number of available buy-to-let mortgage products has fallen by 40% since July, and many landlords will fear the days of easy capital gains are now over." David, listen to the economists, the professional ones, not the clowns forced to write in mainstream papers for a living

Posted by confused76 @ 12:03 PM 3 Comments

The amateurs flee, yeah but the pros stay in... actually they exited a year ago (remember Tgzenicy, whatever his name)

FT: Amateur buy-to-let investors flee

In particular, we have seen the amateur buy-to-let investor drop out, while there are now more negotiations over price than a few months ago, which is actually helping the professionals. It is basic economics that the release of land will match the demand. So demand and supply means that prices are falling... but I thought immmmmigrants, diiiivorces, plaaanning peeermissions... wuaauhahahhahahh

Posted by confused76 @ 11:55 AM 5 Comments

US Dollar about to implode! Inflation to let rip... I just can't see how this will end as a 'soft landing'

Bloomberg: Bond Market to Fed: Recession Threat Means More Cuts

'The economy is so bad the central bank will have to lower interest rates at least three-quarters of a percentage point to avoid a recession.' Hunt predicts the Fed may lower its target to 2 percent in the next few years.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 11:16 AM 0 Comments

As Owners Feel Mortgage Pain, So Do Renters

NY Times: As Owners Feel Mortgage Pain, So Do Renters

In the foreclosure crisis of 2007, thousands of American families are losing their homes without ever missing a payment. They are renters in houses whose owners default on their mortgages a large but little noticed class of casualties. Many renters say they never even knew their buildings were heading for foreclosure.

Posted by global citizen @ 11:12 AM 1 Comments

Northern Rock hits new low

Times Online: Northern Rock plunges after 'cut-price' bids

Shares in Northern Rock plunged 16.2 per cent to an all-time low today after the beleaguered mortgage lender admitted that the proposals it received last Friday to rescue the heavily indebted business were "materially below" its market value.

Posted by peter @ 10:49 AM 4 Comments

Pan-European FTSEurofirst Index Goes Negative For The Year

Reuters: European stocks extend fall, index negative on year

LONDON, Nov 19 (Reuters) - European equities fell across the board on Monday and hit the day's lowest levels as banks again topped losers in a market still worried about the impact of exposure to the risky U.S. mortgage market. By 1115 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst index (.FTEU3: Quote, Profile, Research) was 0.6 percent weaker at 1,485.2 and sharply below the day's highs of 1,502.8. At its lows, the index turned negative on the year compared with a 15 percent gain at the same time last year.

Posted by cr4shw4tcher @ 10:41 AM 0 Comments

Rising Electricity Prices

Times Online: Big energy users eager to invest in nuclear stations

Big British energy users, including manufacturers and transport groups, are so concerned by the threat of rising electricity prices that they are considering investing in new nuclear power stations

Posted by peter @ 10:39 AM 0 Comments

Southern house prices could be hit worst by credit crunch fall-out

MoneyWeek: Why 0% house price growth for 2008 is optimistic

Nationwide has predicted 0% movement for the property market next year, whilst estate agents Savills have announced that things will be worst for those in the North. In London and the South East (where most of these big agents make all their money), life wont be quite as bad, they reckon. But they would say that, of course... and it could actually be a lot worse, says MoneyWeek's John Stepek.

Posted by mary @ 10:25 AM 0 Comments

Dead duck?

BBC market news: Barratt Share Price

Don't know much about share prices, but can anyone explain to me why Barratt Developments have lost over 60% of their value since February? I thought there was a housing shortage and the government was promising to build lots of houses??

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 10:13 AM 6 Comments

Have it

Telegraph: Lloyd's braced for wave of credit crunch claims


Lloyd's of London, the world's largest insurance market, is bracing itself for hundreds of claims from company directors as fears mount that the credit crisis will unleash a wave of lawsuits. Sources said that up to 30 notifications had already been received. The chief executive of one syndicate said: "There is always going to be a delay before the insurers feel the pain. " A fortnight ago, a class action lawsuit was filed in New York by investors who had bought shares in Citigroup, alleging the investment bank misled them by falsely reporting financial statements.

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:35 AM 7 Comments

Office prices suffer in London

Times Online: London office prices suffer as big banks put lettings on hold

The multi-billion-pound London offices market is set for further price falls as evidence emerges that big banks have put their requirements for large new lettings on hold for up to a year and are opting for short-term flexible leases.

Posted by peter @ 09:14 AM 0 Comments

What a joke! This bank is bankrupt to the tune of about 20,000,000,000 and they have the nerve to quibble.

BBC: Rock offers 'undervalue the bank'

Northern Rock has said the proposals received so far from potential investors were "materially below" the stricken bank's current share price.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:47 AM 11 Comments

Here we go again?

BBC: The Pound In Your Pocket - 18 November

"It does not mean that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket, in your purse or bank has been devalued."

Posted by cornishman @ 08:44 AM 8 Comments

Engine of UK economy being systematically shut down - Simply no escape from severe downturn now IMHO.

Telegraph: Credit limits cut by wary lenders

Credit card holders are having their borrowing limits slashed as lenders try to protect themselves from potential exposure to bad debts. The tightening of limits is even affecting customers with good repayment records and comes on top of a stricter attitude to issuing cards to new borrowers.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:27 AM 4 Comments

Tipping point has passed

Frstrung: Average national house prices drop by 0.7% (1,656), with all regions bar London falling - Rightmove

The depressed state of the housing market has resulted in sellers dropping their asking prices by an average of 0.7% (1,656) this month. The net effect is that prices have remained at a standstill for the last 4 months, reducing the annual rate of increase to just 7.9%. Rightmove expects this slowdown to continue, and forecasts that overall prices will be flat at 0% in 2008. We expect more price falls in December and in the first part of next year, before a more stable financial environment and underlying demand lead to some minor price gains later in the year.

Posted by converted lurker @ 06:43 AM 14 Comments

Rightmove joins the party - 0.7% fall in asking prices

Rightmove press release: Rightmove November report

All regions bar London falling; usual flim-flam about stagnation next year (no falls), but there is a plea for IR cut.

Posted by andyh @ 04:56 AM 0 Comments

Bracing itself for hundreds of claims from company directors as fears mount that the credit crisis will unleash a wave of lawsuits. Lloyd's braced for wave of credit crunch claims

Lloyd's of London, the world's largest insurance market, is bracing itself for hundreds of claims from company directors as fears mount that the credit crisis will unleash a wave of lawsuits.

Posted by chris @ 12:00 AM 0 Comments

Sunday, November 18, 2007

All down hill from here! The nervous wait before the plunge

Is the rollercoaster about to drop precipitously?

Posted by t miller @ 09:15 PM 0 Comments

Mwaahhha hahahhah uahah ahhhahah

FT: Buy-to-let crisis hits UK housing plans

Uuuuuuuuuuuu... cannot believe the blackest weekend for the BTL crowd (to date, only to date) ends with this great news: there is no supply shortage! on the contrary, it is a true supply glut of "luxury apartments" and the only minor tiny tiny problem is that The recent tightening of lending criteria by the major building societies has had a material impact on the buy-to-let market". But of course there is not enough "affordable" properties. Stuart Law, dont worry, there'll be plenty affordable after the crash!

Posted by confused76 @ 08:50 PM 13 Comments

Scores of wealthy foreigners are meeting advisers Non-doms look again at staying in UK

Scores of wealthy foreigners are meeting advisers to review their assets and weigh up whether pending tax changes for non-domiciled residents will force them to leave the UK. Foreigners and their employers are increasingly worried that the new tax treatment they face will be so expensive it will not justify staying, say accountants and solicitors.

Posted by chris @ 08:22 PM 1 Comments

As the air came out of the technology and telecommunications bubble this decade, the stock market found a new champion in the financial sector. Stock Market Likely to Stay Under Pressure

Now, as problems in the credit markets are cutting into profits at banks, brokerage firms and insurance companies, that growth engine is looking more like a millstone. Financial stocks are down 17.6 percent for the year, and many market specialists expect that they will remain under pressure in the coming year, making it harder for the broader market to regain its footing.

Posted by chris @ 08:05 PM 0 Comments

A Nice bit of Anecdotal Evidence for a HPC

Telegraph Blogs: When estate agents turn desperate

To my mind, the clearest sign yet that things are taking a turn for the worst arrived this morning in the shape of a surprise text to my phone from an estate agent. Hi. This one is just on the market, 5 bed detached house with 3 receps and en-suite in Langshott. Are you able to view? I nearly fell off my chair. Contact from an estate agent!

Posted by quiet guy @ 07:01 PM 7 Comments

Northern Rock to Receive Government Restructuring Aid

Reuters: Northern Rock to have government loan extended: report

The UK's illustrious chancellor Darling has bowed to pressure from Northern Rock and is working on a plan to change the status of the funding to 'restructuring aid' in order to circumvent EU guidelines in state aid.

Posted by enuii @ 01:49 PM 21 Comments

Listen to the experts

Mirror: So are house prices set to crash?

"LOUISA, 33, has made millions knowing when to buy and sell property. With Kirstie Allsopp she presents Inside Property on London Tonight on Mondays at 6pm. She says: I WILL stake my house on the fact there will not be a property crash like the one in the late 1990s. The economic situation is completely different. When I bought my first property then, interest rates were 11 per cent as opposed to 5.75 per cent today. There was high unemployment and we didnt have the Financial Services Authority a buffer between lenders and the Bank of England. They are acting as underwriters in the Northern Rock fiasco, making money there safer than ever. We didnt have that sort of security in the 1990s." Ah ahha ahhah ahahha

Posted by confused76 @ 09:43 AM 41 Comments

A tour de-force of current financial issues

The Oil Drum: Canada: The Finance Round-Up: November 16th 2007

Oil people are interested in this because it impacts upon oil prices. It is all just as relevant for the study of house prices and the soundness of the economy in general. The headline article says the following: According to Gregory Peters, head of credit strategy at Morgan Stanley: There's a greater than 50 percent probability that the financial system will come to a grinding halt. You have the SIVs, you have the conduits, you have the money-market funds, you have future losses still in the dealer's balance sheet in the banks [..] That's all toppling at once. Enjoy!

Posted by planning4acrash @ 09:40 AM 3 Comments

Miller Group calling the top?

TimesOnline: Housebuilder sale sparks family feud

A FAMILY feud is brewing at one of Britains largest private companies after a group of shareholders at Miller Group, the housebuilding and construction empire, put its majority stake up for sale.

Posted by ash4781 @ 06:57 AM 0 Comments

Sunnyvale & Cupertino, CA oasis for property investors

Zirana: Real Estate Broker Bobbie Lemberg Interview

Bobbie Lemberg is a former Director of the California Association of Realtors. She sees Sunnyvale and Cupertino home and property prices remaining stable and a good bet for investors, inspite of a real estate crash in the neighbouring areas and in the rest of California.

Posted by p ling @ 03:47 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, November 17, 2007

Amazing how fast David Smith's tune has changed

Times: UK heads for worst growth in 15 years

This is a very difficult time to interpret the economic tea leaves, said Graeme Leach, chief economist at the Institute of Directors. The evidence to date suggests we shouldnt be too pessimistic, but my instinct suggests were entering the most difficult period for 15 years. Overreliance on debt and house price inflation to sustain the growth... does this ring any bell? Or are these oracles just begging for IR cuts?

Posted by confused76 @ 10:25 PM 1 Comments

Daisy makes sense

Times: Why bother buying?

Why waste your cash on buying a property when you could rent instead and splash out on frocks and handbags?

Posted by confused76 @ 10:21 PM 3 Comments

Further negative momentum

Times: British Land set to pounce if property prices wobble

"Mr Hester said that commercial property prices generally were falling. Further sharp drops were expected as the sector struggled with wider macro-economic uncertainties. I cannot say definitively where or when it will end, he added" C'mon BTLers, exit now before the market across the board becomes a falling knife

Posted by confused76 @ 09:07 PM 3 Comments

Ode to Cornishman

Market Oracle: Gold and Silver Correction is Normal and Necessary for the Bull Market to Continue

Just a quickie about the "expected" fall in the gold price. Conclusion - although servere (corrections to a bull trend often are servere and brief - particularly when the RSI is way overbought) corrections provide an opportunity to accumulate more.

Posted by techieman @ 08:42 PM 1 Comments

UK agent hit by cancelled home sales

FT: UK agent hit by cancelled home sales

Britains biggest chain of estate agents, Countrywide, is to close down branches after being hit by a spate of cancelled sales amid the gloomiest outlook for the housing market since the early 1990s.

Posted by katia @ 06:14 PM 9 Comments

Sell US shares short on Monday

Bloomberg: Goldman Sees Subprime Cutting $2 Trillion in Lending

The slump in global credit markets may force banks, brokerages and hedge funds to cut lending by $2 trillion and trigger a ``substantial recession'' in the U.S., according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman's forecast reduction in lending is equivalent to 7 percent of total U.S. household, corporate and government debt, hurting an economy already beset by the slowing housing market."What it all comes down to is that Joe Six-Pack has been taking equity out of his house and supporting the U.S. economy,''

Posted by alan @ 05:35 PM 1 Comments

Old turkeys too celebrate Christmas

Times' Anne Ashworth: Is it Christmas already? Tell Santa to break out a rate cut without further delay?

"Even the most downhearted RICS members do not report any panic selling, confirming the suspicion that there lies ahead not a price slump but a period of stagnation, with the number of transactions subsiding. Meanwhile, after the signal from the Bank of England that interest rates could be cut next year, some people are already looking beyond the slowdown, trying to spy out the locations that could be the first to start moving upwards again or become the next hotspots" ... and of course the American "infidels" are killing themselves on the road to Bagdad

Posted by confused76 @ 02:46 PM 6 Comments

Sounds familiar to today...

Firstrung: Yuppie dreams lie in tatters

"We remember Yuppies for their power suits, lavish lunches and a live for today spirit, and many may well have thought the champagne lifestyle would never go flat. But at least the original Yuppie generation tended to have their parents to fall back on when financial difficulty struck. The next generation of young professionals no longer have the same level of family safety net, as their parents are likely to be equally financially stretched - but the older generation can at least play a vital role in encouraging their children to save more for the future."

Posted by converted lurker @ 02:25 PM 5 Comments

Are BOE rates increasingly irrelevant?

Firstrung: Lenders mortgage rates not influenced by MPC rates anymore

"Our advice to homeowners is sit tight and watch this space, as it provides increasing evidence that the mortgage industry is moving away from being influenced by movements in base rates by the MPC."

Posted by converted lurker @ 02:23 PM 0 Comments

Well at least the shareholders of NR can afford a dentist

THE AUSTRALIAN: Audacity of the Northern Rock game

Anatole Kaletsky | November 16, 2007 LAST week I asked, perhaps a little hyperbolically, whether tens of billions of pounds of taxpayers' money should be diverted from health, education and social services to subsidise the bonuses of stockbrokers and salaries of bankers.

Posted by acetip @ 01:12 PM 2 Comments

Only OPEC not dumping US bonds

Safe Haven: More Declines in Asian Holdings of US Tsrys

Foreigners were net sellers of US long term securities in September at $14.7b after $150.7b in net selling in August.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:45 AM 1 Comments

Very Good News (for some of us)

The Times: Property prices slip in suburbs

This is one the clearest and spin free articles I've seen in a while. No only are prices sliping but in the words of the article "Several big lenders said that they could not guarantee that they would cut their standard variable rates if the base rate fell."

Posted by quiet guy @ 08:55 AM 0 Comments

But ... immigration, demographics, shortages ...?

BBC: House Prices "face slowdown"

Amazing how the BBC and Fionnullla change their tune on a sixpence.
Not two weeks ago house prices were going up up and away driven by immigration, population growth, divorce, demographics, lack of building ...

Posted by voiceofreason @ 07:48 AM 18 Comments

Forget that inheritance!

Telegraph: Elderly sell homes to cover care bills

Nearly one in five people has to sell all their assets, including the family home, to fund their place in a care home, according to new research. Amid the ongoing scandal of people who have worked and saved all their lives giving up everything when they go into a home, it found a chronic lack of awareness of the cost of care. Six in 10 adults over the age of 50 have no idea how much care homes charge until they are faced with the reality - which is around 25,000 to 30,000 a year.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 07:40 AM 8 Comments

Phenominal using the word 'devious', these lenders are running a business what do these commentators expect?

Telegraph: Warning over rate rise by 'devious' lenders

Nearly five million home owners are facing dramatic increases in their monthly mortgage bill next year, as "devious" lenders raise their rates despite the Bank of England signalling that it will cut interest rates. On a fixed-rate deal of 4.95 per cent taken out two years ago, the monthly repayment was 1,031 a month on a 250,000 interest-only mortgage. These payments will shoot up to 1,583 when the deal ends....Some serious pain on the way!

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 07:32 AM 15 Comments

Friday, November 16, 2007

Place your bets... The Future of House Prices

We figured it was high time we rounded up some of these predictions for house price growth in 2008. Nationwide: 0% Hometrack: +1% Assetz: +5%

Posted by little professor @ 11:26 PM 3 Comments

Time to buy a house?

BBC News: The Pound In Your Pocket - 18 November

BBC trying again to make it palatable

Posted by inflation is eating my savings @ 11:16 PM 0 Comments

Even if crash gordon and BOE where to cut rates next year there will be know reprieve for BTL "investors".

times online: Lenders may not pass on rate cuts

Major lenders including Halifax, RBS, Lloyds TSB and Barclays said yesterday that they could not guarantee that borrowers would benefit from any base rate cuts next year.

Posted by sold out @ 08:55 PM 6 Comments

This is going to be the BTLoser "black weekend", oh I am so soooorry

Times: Homeowners brace themselves for a cold front on the property market

Anne Ashworth and Judith Heywood, who just 2 WEEKS AGO were adoring the landbitch Rosie Miller, now write: "The pain of the property market slowdown of 2008 will not be equally shared. The rich, in homes of 2 million-plus, may barely notice the downturn and could become richer, while the relatively poor could become even poorer. Most economists and estate agents are forecasting that homes worth 350,000 or less in all areas will be those hardest hit in the slowdown." OK, this defies any logic but what do you expect. I post more links about the BTL black weekend in the comments

Posted by confused76 @ 08:22 PM 11 Comments

Kiss Goodbye to The Rock Time to nationalise Northern Rock?

If current proposals for the Rock are unattractive it should be nationalised, run down and sold off a bit at a time over six or seven years.

A bit like the 1970's and 80's really.

Posted by enuii @ 07:56 PM 4 Comments

What do you call a bubble? I call it a bubble

Times: Commercial property confidence worst since 2003

No laughs, no shadeufreude (is the spelling correct?) but I have heard of people who really lost big money in property funds this year. and no hope of any rebound, this century at least. "The findings from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors are likely to stoke fears that the commercial property market is heading for a collapse not seen since the early 1990s." One thing about the RICS is that they guessed the timing of the last crash right (months before others had any clue)

Posted by confused76 @ 07:22 PM 1 Comments

State sanctioned robbery

World Net Daily: Feds raid Liberty Dollar offices

Apologies for being a bit off topic but the house price mess we have today is very much linked to speculation with fiat currency. Have you ever considered trying to set up your own private currency to escape inflation? Here's what happened to a company that tried.

Posted by quiet guy @ 06:34 PM 0 Comments

The Hood retreats to the planet Planck

Is the waistband line the new hemline for the financial markets?

BBC News: Is this the end of the muffin top?

From the catwalk and into M&S, high-waisted trousers are now firmly part of the fashion mainstream. Is this farewell to the fleshy overspill inevitable when wearing hipsters? Tenuous, I know!

Posted by disillusioned @ 11:26 AM 9 Comments

Please cut rates pleads all banks and building socities.

BBC: House prices 'face 2008 slowdown'

House price growth is set to stall next year as the market witnesses a "significant slowdown", building society Nationwide has warned. There is no evidence that house price growth has completely stopped and if the BoE starts cutting rates it is 2005 all over again! SH*T!!!!

Posted by david20040_0 @ 11:16 AM 30 Comments

A&L down 4.5%; Barclays down 2%; Interbank rate UP; Property groups tanking

Times Online: A&L dives on credit worries

Property groups were also on the slide as RICS data showed demand from tenants had fallen dramatically. British Land was down 5 per cent at 867p, driven by Lehman Brothers cutting from overweight to equal weight and warning that the market was fearful of a further writedown of the unsold Meadowhall shopping centre and risky further City developments. Land Securities lost 4 per cent to 14.39 thanks to Citigroup cutting its price target. UK Commercial Property Trust was down 5 per cent to a new low of 68p.

Posted by disillusioned @ 11:07 AM 1 Comments

Sale starts Monday

Gold Eagle: November 19th, 2007

Written in 2004, this article is about the Mayan Calendar and the tensions between east and west civilizations. Food for thought.

Unfortunately, precisely on November 19th 2007 (according to the Mayan Calendar) forces will kick in which will cause the economic infrastructure to start unravelling. It is on that day (according to Calleman's interpretation) that the collapse of the financial infrastructure will manifest.

Anyone for shorting the FTSE100?

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:04 AM 11 Comments

The BOE's Rates No Longer Matter

BBC News: Credit squeeze forces rate rise

Like all lenders Standard Life has seen its costs rise in recent months. Borrowers have been warned that they could face higher mortgage rates amid signs that lenders are feeling the effects of the global credit crunch. Standard Life said its standard variable rate (SVR) will rise by 0.15 percentage points to 7.46% on Monday. Other lenders could now follow suit, analysts said.

Posted by lukeskywalker @ 10:59 AM 0 Comments

Any Takers for the Rock

BBC: D-day for Northern Rock bidders

Potential buyers for Northern Rock have until Friday to submit their offers. I can just imagine Applegarth submitting his business model to Dragons Den. I think he would hear "I'm out" from all 5 dragons in record time. On to more serious matters I'll organise a cooperative if anyone wants to join me. After careful consideration an much research I will invest thirty quid. Anyone fancy a punt? I don't think NR would get much more than 100 on Ebay

Posted by denzil @ 09:41 AM 5 Comments

That gleaming bodywork is in fact coated rust! Bad debt trashes a myriad of US institutions...

Bloomberg: MBIA, Ambac Downgrades May Cost Market $200 Billion

``We shudder to think of the ramifications,'' said Greg Peters, head of credit strategy at New York-based Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm by market value. ``You have politicians, taxpayers, municipalities, states. It just opens up a Pandora's box. That is a huge destabilizing force.''

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:26 AM 1 Comments

Credit crunch is back

The Telegraph: Market freeze to sour festivities

"Federal Reserve was last night forced to pump its biggest combined cash injection into the financial system since just after the September 11 attacks in 2001."

"London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) surged beyond the 6.3pc level for the first time since mid-September"

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:12 AM 2 Comments

Stocks crash coming very soon

The Telegraph: The Stock Market and the Yen

If the EUR YEN breaks through the 1.59 (last hit on 12 Nov) barrier in the next fews days then IMHO the carry trade will implode and stocks tumble to below August's lows It is at 160.99 ad 10:10 AM The UK IR cuts have been signalled for early next year. Get your savings out of GBP and into gold or yen. The GBP has only one way to go - down.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:26 AM 8 Comments

Gold mining stocks to surge on rising gold

The Telegraph: A perfect storm for gold as mines left empty

At $1000 an ounce, it forecasts a share feast: Barrick up 65pc, Newmont 80pc, IAMGOLD 90pc, NovaGold 90pc, and Centerra 100pc.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:11 AM 7 Comments

Even Nationwide is predicting a slump now

Reuters: House price growth to hit zero in 2008

Even the VIs are talking about 2008 being the weakest year in more than a decade. But I love the way we're still all talking about 'growth', even zero growth . . .

Posted by bricksnmortarhaha @ 07:33 AM 3 Comments

Will this be like bank charges....?

Telegraph: Deutsche Bank in ownership court row

If banks cannot prove ownership and eviction cannot take place, will people eventually get to keep their homes with their debt written off? Please tell me i'm being totally naive!

Posted by tom101 @ 06:52 AM 2 Comments

Nationwide come clean

Times: House price growth to collapse next year

Better late than never Fifi. The property market is due to suffer its worst year since the mid-1990s as houses fall in value across the country, Britain's biggest building society gives warning today. Nationwide said that house price inflation would collapse from 9.7 per cent at present to precisely 0 per cent next year - below the expected inflation rate of around 2 per cent, meaning that prices will fall in real terms.

Posted by realist @ 06:40 AM 8 Comments

House Price Rises 'Set To End'

sky news: house prices set to end

The UK's house prices boom will soon be well and truly over, according to one of the most respected property market commentators.

Posted by it will happen @ 05:34 AM 5 Comments

Northern Rock win High Court battle to prevent publication of investment memorandum

Guido Fawkes' blog: 24,000,000,000 of Public Money is a Matter of Public Interest

Yesterday the FT lost a High Court battle to publish the investment memorandum being circulated in the City for Northern Rock. In it was revealed that by the end of this year 24 billion will have been borrowed from the Bank of England by Northern Rock ... Everybody in the City already knows what is in the memo. The government just doesn't want the political embarrassment.

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:02 AM 0 Comments

Thursday, November 15, 2007

my personal record of reduced properties Reduced properties

Just though to post my record of the number of reduced price propertyes on property snake: 13 OCT--> 86,097 14 OCT--> 91,997 16 OCT--> 94,484 19 OCT--> 95,606 21 OCT--> 103,531 26 OCT--> 107,403 01 NOV--> 113,835 07 NOV--> 117,145 13 NOV--> 126,232 15 NOV--> 129,055

Posted by luigi @ 09:56 PM 3 Comments

Emigration, I wonder if the EAs mention it in their mantra

Tgraph: Emigration soars as Britons desert the UK

"Last year, 207,000 British citizens - one every three minutes - left the country while 510,000 foreigners arrived to stay for a year or more. The majority of people leaving the UK go to New Zealand, France, Spain or Australia. The British made up more than half of the 400,000 moving abroad" 400k moved out! so only 110k net influx... yet another nail in the coffin of the housing market!

Posted by confused76 @ 09:18 PM 11 Comments

The Government faces having millions of pounds extorted by City financiers cashing in on Northern Rock

Times: How to deal with blatant blackmail

The Government and the UK Taxpayer faces being milked of multi-millions of pounds as City financiers cash in on the Northern Rock debarcle.

Posted by enuii @ 09:16 PM 2 Comments

Britain is experiencing the greatest exodus of its own nationals in recent history while immigration is at unprecedented levels, new figures show. Emigration soars as Britons desert the UK

More than 50 per cent of the British emigrants moved to just four countries in 2006 - Australia, New Zealand, France and Spain. Eight in every 100 went to the USA.

Posted by chris @ 07:21 PM 0 Comments

Even if BoE drops rates IT WILL NOT MATTER

Times: Standard Life increases SVR

It is credit risk repricing that has made mortgages more expensive. Mervyn is powerless, unless... unless he decides to fund the lending a la Northern Rock for all the other lenders. Painted in a corner, the UK house market has nowhere to hide. God bless the Pound. I spare you my usual laugh, but I am laughing... this time at Mervyn.

Posted by confused76 @ 06:53 PM 5 Comments

Pound starting to crumble - and with rates at 5.75%!!!!

Reuters: Weak data, BoE send pound to 4-1/2 yr low vs euro

LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Sterling fell to a 4-1/2 year low against the euro on Thursday as weak UK retail sales data fanned speculation of an early rate cut with more to follow.

Posted by sovietuk @ 06:18 PM 9 Comments

The honest Mr Applegarth

guardian: Northern Rock boss sold 2.6m of shares while urging employees to keep buying

Why do we always let these crooks get away with it?

Posted by inbreda @ 01:48 PM 16 Comments

This is begining to sound desperate.

The Times: Rate cut nears as retail sales drop sharply

"The first fall in high street spending for ten months has increased the likelihood of a pre-Christmas rate cut" Why has it ? All complete b****cks from the Times.

Posted by darren @ 12:12 PM 3 Comments

Good summary of k-cycle

theroxylandr: Kondratieff wave

The current Kondratieff wave will be completed when the mortgage debt will collapse back to historic levels of the start of new wave, i.e. 10%-15% of GDP. Obviously, it means that $4-$6 trillion of outstanding mortgage debt will end up in default, which means many millions of homes will foreclose and losses will devastate the banking sector.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:38 AM 14 Comments

Debt to sky rocket.

This is money: Plans made to 'nationalise' Northern Rock

Treasury insiders have calculated that the loan means that every British taxpayer is in effect lending 730 to the Newcastle-based bank.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:49 AM 29 Comments

Recession and US interest rates heading for 2%

FT: Insight: All signals are pointing in the direction of a US slowdown

This article in the FT written by an Economist working for Merrill Lynch. Amongst other things he thinks interest rates are heading for 2%. Bring on the next housing bubble...

Posted by happyrenterz @ 09:42 AM 2 Comments

Official inflation figures questioned

Firstrung: All age groups suffering inflation above the official rate - Alliance Trust Research

Not only did the official rate of inflation rise more than expected to 2.1% in October, but Alliance Trust's independent study found that, for the first time since June 2007, all age groups are suffering inflation at above the official rate. Inflation is hitting the over 75s and the under 30s hardest - these two groups are suffering the highest rate of inflation, at 2.5%. Alliance Trust Research Centre's headline findings, based on the updated spending patterns of different age groups and analysis of official October inflation figures are:

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:07 AM 0 Comments

Abbey admit renting is a viable option

Firstrung: First time buyers see financial benefits of buying shrink dramatically

It's still better for first time buyers to buy rather than rent in the UK - but only just. The latest results from the annual UK Rent Versus Buy Index from Abbey Mortgages shows that the average monthly cost of a mortgage for 25 years and the average monthly cost of rent for the same period are converging. Last year, the saving made from buying over renting was over 24,000, whereas this year it's 5,811. That's a massive fall of 76 per cent...

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:05 AM 0 Comments

Another bank discloses credit crunch hit

Times Online: Barclays discloses 1.3bn credit crunch hit

Britain's third-largest bank says it still has 2.6bn of exposure to the US mortgage market and has 7.3bn of unsold leveraged loans

Posted by peter @ 08:30 AM 2 Comments

It's the credit crunch, stupid

MoneyWeek: Why cutting interest rates won't save the housing market

The problems presented by the credit crunch mean that even if interest rates do fall in the New Year, were unlikely to see cheaper mortgages with them. The average mortgage rate stood at 6.02% in September against 5.91% in August and it looks like its already having an effect on the highly inflated housing market. But because of the Northern Rock debacle, the one that so embarrassed Mr King over a month ago, its an above evens bet that the banks have learnt their lessons when it comes to offering mortgages to the poor and insolvent. Now theyre likely to swing the other way, withholding mortgages from all but the most credit-worthy.

Posted by drewster @ 08:26 AM 7 Comments

Getting ready for the fall ... How to Design Your Own House

"You can save money if you build yourself, but you must be prepared for a long and stressful process. You have to find and buy your plot, often beating established house builders and developers in the race, negotiate planning departments and find an architect you trust."

Ok, so were heading for a crash (or a re-alignment of the markets !!!), that means construction costs will drop, land prices should drop, anyone paid on commission for professional services (Architects, Engineers, etc,.) will find their % of the construction cost will drop. All in all, construction is heading for a recession and there will be some bargains to be had.

Posted by fahrenheit451 @ 08:16 AM 10 Comments

2008:Back on track?I don't think so.

Times Online: Mortgage relief as bank rates set to fall

In its gloomiest view of prospects since 2001, the Bank sounded a warning that, even after these likely cuts in rates, growth is still set to suffer a severe setback next year, triggered by past rate increases and the mounting impact of the global credit crunch

Posted by peter @ 08:04 AM 1 Comments

Investors and analysts believe that Citigroup Inc. may face more pain after announcing Expectations are growing that UBS AG may face fourth-quarter write-downs of as much as eight billion Swiss francs, or $7.11 billion

Just weeks after some of the world's largest banks took tens of billions of dollars in losses on their holdings of debt linked to tainted mortgages, a new concern is emerging: It might not have been enough.

Posted by chris @ 07:38 AM 0 Comments

Why is he saying this?

The Telegraph: Markets poised for severe fall, says King

We were set for a good 20pc correction in October but the markets went to early in August. The latter part of November could be the real stocks shake out.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 07:22 AM 5 Comments

We're finished if this comes true!

Telegraph: Bank of England hints at interest rate cuts

Home owners are likely to see their mortgage bills slashed next year after the Bank of England indicated that it is primed to substantially cut interest rates. Alan Clarke, economist at investment bank BNP Paribas, said: "We now believe the Monetary Policy Committee will deliver the first interest rate cut at the December meeting. "We expect substantial interest rate cuts throughout 2008, taking the Bank rate to slightly below neutral - to a level of 4.5 per cent in our view."

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 07:08 AM 21 Comments

I seem to remember both Citi and Merrill only having a few begin with

Press Association: Barclays announces 1.3billion in losses 2 weeks early

Really, Mr Varley? Really Mr Diamond? Are you sure? Chuck and Stan only had small losses, or so they said. And then these losses turned out to be $15bn+. Each. You wouldn't lie to us would you Mssr Diamond and Varley? You wouldn't let your egos get in the way of truth?

Posted by lvmreader @ 06:57 AM 0 Comments

Yes, Virginia, there are unforseen linkages......

MarketWatch: Toxic Export:How America's risky subprime mortgages fouled the world's markets

by DUTCHDAVEY 13 minutes ago Okay the BBC answered my question. Accoring to Moodys) there are still around $1.3trillion in unsteady mortgages in the US which are going to face worsening terms in the years to come. Around half of these will be foreclosed ($600bn) and the properties sold. The sale proceeds, however, will only relieve the bad debt by around $400bn, leaving a shortfall of $200bn. Assuming, optimistically, that house prices dont go into a nose dive, which is quite likely to happen if people can't get new mortgages. Don't forget: that $200bn is still out there!

Posted by lvmreader @ 06:40 AM 0 Comments

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Sell your house and leave the UK now

Times: Bags to be screened on trains in plan to create fortress Britain

Does Gordon know something we don't, should we sell up and leave?

If your read to the bottom of this you may want to!

Posted by enuii @ 08:36 PM 6 Comments

So the chancellor has a meeting with 3 financial sector leaders and they decide that there is no rush to change financial regulation.

Reuters: Darling says no rush to change financial regulation

"It was agreed to establish an experts group of financial services representatives to inform the Government's approach to international discussions affecting the financial services industry." Wednesday's meeting was the third of its kind where financial sector leaders such as Morgan Stanley International Chairman Jonathan Chenevix-Trench and Barclays Group Chief Executive John Varley meet alongside politicians such as London Mayor Ken Livingstone. I'm speechless !!!!

Posted by jj @ 07:53 PM 5 Comments

Another result you may have missed

Bloomberg: Bear Stearns Cuts Subprime Assets, Limits Writedown

"Bear Stearns Cos., after posting its biggest earnings decline in more than a decade, reduced subprime holdings by 50 percent in the past two months, limiting writedowns in the fourth quarter to $1.2 billion". "Bear reduced its CDO holdings to $884 million as of Nov. 9 from $2.07 billion at the end of August".

Posted by alan @ 05:45 PM 6 Comments

Bank of England: Lower consumer spending next year

Times Online: Bank signals at least two rate cuts next year

The Bank of England today delivered a clear signal that interest rates will fall next year, despite a barrage of data suggesting inflationary pressures are building.

Posted by peter @ 03:33 PM 4 Comments

Financial Market and characteristic of human reactions to loss or bereavement

FT: Words of comfort for the grieving investor

Elizabeth Kbler-Ross, a Swiss doctor who worked with the terminally ill, analysed characteristic human reactions to loss or bereavement. Her approach, used today by counsellors around the world, also describes how people behave when dumped by their partner, when they are fired and when they lose their wallets.

Posted by wojtek @ 03:18 PM 0 Comments

Time to start growing piggies!

BBC: China inflation up on food costs

The Chinese government said the latest inflation figures were largely explained by higher food prices - particularly for pork, a key Chinese ingredient, which climbed by nearly 55%. "We believe the central bank will likely respond with tightening measures including strict controls on bank lending two more rate hikes before the end of the year" said Yu Song, an economist at Goldman Sachs.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 02:26 PM 1 Comments

Contagion, contagion, contagion HSBC warns loan problems are spreading

The UK-based bank warned that problems associated with the subprime mortgage market in the US were spreading to other areas like credit cards and car loans as it reported a higher than expected third quarter writedown of $3.4bn

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 12:53 PM 2 Comments

Great debt graphs comparing developed countries

AMP Capital: Household debt and wealth

The first graph shows debt levels are above Japan's in 1990. It is a shame the author then draws a way too optimiastic conclusion

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:49 PM 9 Comments

Uaaha hahh aahhha ahhahah

ThisWasMoney: Benefit of buying a home tumbles by 75%

And this is what a top lender says... "The financial benefit of buying a home rather than renting over a 25-year period has tumbled by 75% over the past year with tenants better off than owners in half the UK's regions. The latest annual Rent vs Buy index compiled by High Street bank Abbey shows the 25-year saving from buying rather than renting has fallen from 24,000 last year to just 5,811 today." Am I allowed to laugh? we are taking about "benefits" not shaudenfreunde

Posted by confused76 @ 12:13 PM 23 Comments

Massive rental shortfall on Ireland's BTL nightmare

RTE News: Irish banking system robust - Hurley

"By the middle of this year, investors faced a 36% shortfall between their annual rental income and their annual mortgage repayments on new houses. This is a significant deterioration since 2005 when it was just a 16% shortfall. It added that the rental shortfall for those investing in second hand houses is more pronounced at 43%." This is against a background of BTL surging to 26.1% of outstanding mortgages up from 16.7% in 2006 !!! And now prices are falling ..... OUCH !!!!! Numbers are from Irish Central Bank so no vested interest..just the facts.

Posted by genie @ 12:11 PM 0 Comments

Good article about debt in Australia (12 months old) Economist says debt levels more dangerous than inflation

Dr Steve Keene, Associate Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of Western Sydney, with that dire prediction of a deflationary bust 12 months ago.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:10 PM 1 Comments

A bit more detail on that amazing MPC announcement.

Bloomberg: Bank of England Signals Need for Rate Cut in 2008

``The report gives a clear signal that a series of interest rate cuts lies ahead,'' said Vicky Redwood, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. ``The MPC will wait until early next year to cut.''

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 11:12 AM 19 Comments


BBC: Bank 'signals' interest rate fall

Interest rates could fall in coming months, the Bank of England has signalled on Wednesday. In its quarterly Inflation Report, the Bank has predicted that inflation will meet its 2% target next year even if rates fall by half a percentage point. Is this wishful thinking or the ideas of lunatics?

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:29 AM 31 Comments

They'll still owe taxpayer billions in 2010

BBC: Northern Rock tries to block leaked document

Northern Rock has won an injunction preventing the further publication of a sales document that was sent to potential bidders for the ailing bank. The memo shows that Northern Rock expects to borrow 24B by the end of the year, and the Bank of England will still be waiting for repayment in 2010. The document was posted on the Financial Times' Alphaville website

Posted by little professor @ 10:27 AM 1 Comments

A VI said recently (eyes roll skywards): End of speculation set to help landlords

The credit crunch will help buy to let landlords because it will help remove short-term speculators from the market. Property Hawk has said that more restrictive barriers to entry would ensure that people could no longer 'run blindly' into the market.

Posted by ian @ 10:26 AM 1 Comments

"Trouble at t'mill"

CNN Money: Citi's giant write-downs: What did it know, and when did it know it?

Someone is going to jail for this
(Fortune) -- Facts coming out in the media, including those in the Fortune article, "Robert Rubin on the job he never wanted," make it clear that Citigroup delayed for more than a week - from Saturday, October 27th until Sunday, November 4th - in announcing material information about the multi-billion-dollar write-downs it expects to record in this quarter. In the more than a week that passed, there were five trading days - October 29th through November 2nd - in which investors buying and selling Citigroup (Charts, Fortune 500) stock did not know that the write-downs were coming.

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:48 AM 0 Comments

Forget buy to let - is gold a safer bet?

MoneyWeek: Buy gold - not buy-to-let

With property on the verge of tipping into the 'capitulation' stage of its bull market, gold and silver stocks look much better long-term prospects - though be sure to play the current correction properly.

Posted by mary @ 09:07 AM 2 Comments

Is it time to buy shares now?

Times Online: What to do with your bank shares

MILLIONS of investors in bank shares are suffering the worst turbulence for five years as the global credit crunch spreads from Wall Street to the Square Mile.

Posted by peter @ 08:24 AM 1 Comments

what are the other 800,000 people living on?

bbc: UK unemployment total increases

if there are 1.67 million people unemployed... only 824,000 claiming benefits... what are the others living on? Something does not add up, they cant be all sick???Can they??? Or is this how they fiddle the figures???

Posted by mark @ 08:22 AM 4 Comments

Interest rates are now beginning to slow the housing market

Times Online: Further slide in mortgage applications

Further evidence of a slowdown in the housing market has emerged yesterday after the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) revealed that the number of mortgages advanced for house purchases continues to fall.

Posted by peter @ 08:18 AM 5 Comments

Restoring the faith

Guardian: Taxpayer may lose 2bn in bank rescue

Thank goodness politicians are restoring my faith in the social system where our hard earned taxes goes to important needy aspects of life like the Health Service, Transport . For one minute I was thinking they are all a bunch of incompetent inbreed hillbillies that couldnt cut the grade as success businessmen producing something of use.

Posted by paul @ 08:15 AM 1 Comments

Cornerstone of London house prices crumbling

The Telegraph: City bankers face bonus and job cuts

London house prices, the last part of the UK still to be rising, will fall in the new year.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 07:58 AM 10 Comments

HSBC Today Disclosed More Wounds

Times Online: HSBC discloses $3.4bn credit crunch hit

HSBC, Europe's biggest bank revealed this morning that it had suffered $3.4 billion (1.6 billion) in bad debts linked to the sub-prime lending crisis in the third quarter.

Posted by peter @ 07:52 AM 0 Comments

17 years and still no end in sight.

The Telegraph: Japan battered by credit whirlwind

This is what the UK, US et al have to look forward to. In order to emerge from a k-winter the debt has to be crushed out of the system. Until that is done there can be no k-spring.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 07:50 AM 1 Comments

The American Perspective

Forbes: Credit Crunch Hits U.K. House Market

LONDON - The impact of the global crunch is being felt by the British housing market. House prices in the country have fallen at their fastest rate in nearly two and a half years, according to data from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors released Tuesday.

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 07:15 AM 0 Comments

"Ooooh, yer b*stard" - said in a wincing, hard edged Northern accent

Bloomberg: Subprime Losses May Reach $400 Billion, Analysts Say (Update5)

Morgan Stanley analyst Anil Agarwal in Hong Kong today cut his rating on the stock of HSBC Holdings Plc to ``equal-weight'' from ``overweight.'' The London-based lender's $2.1 billion of provisions against its $45 billion mortgage services business may be insufficient, he said. Deutsche Bank's Mayo expects writedowns at HSBC, UBS AG, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Barclays Plc to be ``ballpark $5 billion or so'' each, he said.

Posted by lvmreader @ 06:45 AM 3 Comments

Come in housing market... Your time is up...

Daily Telegraph: Drop in house prices fastest for two years

House prices are falling at the fastest rate for more than two years, as high interest rates and unaffordable property freeze the market, new research has shown.

Posted by in the delhi @ 12:43 AM 0 Comments

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

New year hangover

The Times: Northern Foods says price rises will bite in the new year

So now its official, inflation up to horrid levels starting January.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 10:52 PM 3 Comments

Gridlock or car wreck?

Firstrung: Snakes, black swans, bird flu and turkeys voting for Christmas

An odd thing happened the other day, we published a press release suggesting the housing market was headed for gridlock and cited the various data sources and where they are headed in support of our theory. No less than two major house sales websites commented on the release, actually published a rebuttal, of sorts. This lead to a very brief off-line discussion between myself and the editor of the site which, similar to and, is a superb resource. Despite the fact that all these sites are experiencing increased traffic and a huge rise in listings, we're not entirely sure all is well in that micro industry. RM shares have moved up spectacularly in recent months to be way ahead of their issue price.

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:29 PM 0 Comments

Living in one room in homes they can't afford to heat

BBC News: OAPs 'struggle to pay fuel bills

This is the otherside of the current housing trap in the UK. There are many old people hanging on in homes they can't afford to heat or maintain. Were there more suitable accommodation for them and perhaps some incentive to move, it would free up the house they are living in for younger families. At present it seems that in Brown's Britain that they have to die before housing is efficiently allocated by the market. The real problem is that Brown has broken the housing market by removing MIRAS and introducing stamp duty.

Posted by @ 09:23 PM 0 Comments

Bank merica the lastest to issue sub prime write downs

Reuters: Bank of America sees $3 billion debt write-down

Bank of America Corp, the second-largest U.S. bank, said on Tuesday it expects to write down $3 billion of debt in the fourth quarter, as fallout from the nation's housing slump deepens. The pretax loss stemmed from collateralized debt obligations, including those tied to riskier subprime mortgages, and could grow if market conditions worsened, Chief Financial Officer Joe Price said at a Merrill Lynch & Co banking and financial services conference. Price said Bank of America is setting aside more money for housing-related losses, including to homebuilders, and to money market mutual funds that may be exposed to risky debt. The bank nevertheless considers the losses "manageable," he said.

Posted by john k @ 06:44 PM 0 Comments

Irish economy at risk

Irish Independent: Irish economy 'most at risk' from global credit crisis

Homebuyers will find it harder to get mortgages and house prices will fall further as the global credit crisis continues. Ireland was singled out yesterday by a top international think-tank as one of the most vulnerable economies in Europe to the ongoing international banking crisis. The scale of the property price boom now puts the country at greater risk from the fallout in the financial markets, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Posted by john k @ 06:41 PM 0 Comments

Like BTL Investors the B of E are in it for the Long Haul

Reuters: Northern Rock May Still Owe BoE in 2010 -Memo

Memo from Bankers handling Rock sale reckon shareholders in ailing British bank Northern Rock could be left with nothing and the Bank of England could still be funding the lender in 2010.

Posted by enuii @ 06:10 PM 3 Comments

Retail Property Drop Proven

Times Online: Multiplex buy proves retail property drop

Multiplex UK, the construction and development company, has bought a regional UK shopping centre providing the first hard evidence that prices of retail property have fallen by at least 10 per cent since the start of the year.

Posted by peter @ 04:05 PM 0 Comments

Evan Davies - The Economy is at a Turning Point

BBC News: Why Inflation Matters

Evan Points out the blindingly obvious, 'falling house prices and declining consumer spending do become a real problem if they leave the economy with too little spending to keep everybody employed.'

Posted by enuii @ 03:58 PM 16 Comments

The Great Ratings Debacle

Market Oracle: Next Phase of the Financial Markets Credit Crunch Crisis

The big three rating agencies have forever issued stellar, triple-A ratings to four specialized insurance companies Ambac, MBIA, CIFG, and FGIC.
As long as bond insurers like Ambac or MBIA were triple-A then the thousands of tax-exempt bonds and CDOs they insured were also triple-A.
If the insurance companies get downgraded from AAA then so do the bonds they insure - phase II of the credit crunch

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 02:23 PM 2 Comments

All poor news on the eastern front. Poor enquiries, poor stocks, poor prospects.

FT: Housing market faces big slowdown

"Even in London, surveyors have lost their gung-ho attitude after the global credit squeeze" "now the first signs are emerging that home owners are rushing to try to sell before the market tumbles. New stock on estate agents books leapt 8.8 per cent in October at the same time as newly agreed sales were lower that at any time since April 1999"... two thoughts: (1) you will see that RICS is going to discontinue this survey soon, and (2) ah ahahh ahahha hahhah ahhaah hahahha

Posted by confused76 @ 12:12 PM 16 Comments

Average first-time buyer spending 20.4% of monthly income on mortgage.

BBC News: First-time home costs 'up again'

First-time buyers are finding it increasingly expensive to get onto the property ladder, says the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).

Posted by garyb @ 12:04 PM 9 Comments

Bovis offering enticement of a 55000 interest free loan for five years

Bovis Homes: Own 100% of your property for just 75% of the price upfront

This sounds like last-ditch desperation from the homebuilders. This is a shared equity scheme (should be shared liability surely?) where Bovis sells you a new property at 75% of the price. They retain 25% of the ownership which has to be purchased within 10 years. There is no interest to pay for 5 years and then very low (3%) after that. One example given is a Townhouse "worth" 220K but it's yours for only 165K. Just pay the extra 55K in five years and pay no interest. Assuming Bovis foregoes 6% of interest on that amount, it is costing them 18.6K if balance is paid for after 5 years or 34.7K if balance is paid after 10 years. And I didn't even include the loss of equity (you pay 25% of the value at the time the balance is purchased).

Posted by s2rjuly07 @ 11:34 AM 0 Comments

Asset value - ZERO

I am facing foreclosure: Deutsche Bank Foreclosures Tossed Out of Ohio Federal Court - "They Own Nothing!"

It appears that the holders of CDO's do not have legal title to the properties that have been defaulted on, so they cannot foreclose, so they get a big fat NOTHING

Posted by bleakhouse @ 10:14 AM 20 Comments

inflation above Bank of England's 2% target

Times Online: Inflation spike breaches Bank target

Soaring oil and food prices have driven inflation above the Bank of Englands 2 per cent target, all but ruling out an interest rate cut this year.

Posted by peter @ 09:29 AM 4 Comments


Firstrung: Mortgage lending for house purchase falls over 20% in a month - CML

September's total of 30.6 billion was lower than August's (34 billion) but higher than a year ago (29.2 billion in September 2006). At 12.7 billion, house purchase borrowing was lower than in both the preceding month (16.2 billion) and in September last year (13.9 billion).

Posted by converted lurker @ 08:51 AM 2 Comments

Weekly pay up 2.9% to 457

ONS: Earnings

The trend in wage inflation is down from 4.6% in 2000 to 2.9% today. Prices of goods a services are going up (RPI up to 4.2% today)

There will be no wage-price spiral. These price rises will act like an IR rise or tax. Once housing and stocks begin their secular decline, all the deflationary forces will be in place for a depression by 2011.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:50 AM 6 Comments

Your remit is clear Mr. King.

The Times: Inflation dilemma for Governor Mervyn King

With the housing boom clearly spent, wary consumers in retreat, the credit squeeze turning the screws still tighter on lending conditions and scary scenarios for the global economy looking ever more plausible, the hopes of many are pinned on the Governor delivering the gift of lower interest rates. Most would like to see these soon after Christmas at the latest, and preferably before.

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 08:10 AM 0 Comments

Outlook more gloomy than post-9/11

Times Online: IoD warning over slump in confidence

THE credit crisis has led to a sharper fall in business confidence than in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks on America, according to the Institute of Directors.

Posted by peter @ 08:03 AM 4 Comments

CPI upto 2.1 RPI to 4.2

ONS: Petrol drives up inflation

Figures from the Office for National Statistics today show that consumer prices index (CPI) annual inflation the Governments target measure was 2.1 per cent in October, up from Septembers figure of 1.8 per cent.

Posted by holding out @ 07:53 AM 12 Comments

The Sharp Fall in House Prices

Times Online: House prices falling at fastest for over 2 years

"House prices are falling at their fastest pace for more than two years as stocks of unsold houses pile up on estate agents books, a leading survey of the property market suggests today."

Posted by peter @ 07:44 AM 1 Comments

Carnage on Wall Street

BBC News: Carnage on Wall Street as loans go bad

A comprehensive article from the Beeb about the scale of the subprime problems: "The scale of the losses that will hit Wall Street banks could approach half a trillion dollars as large numbers of sub-prime home loans go bad." From the note at the bottom of the page, this is the first of many articles. Still very much about the US rather than the UK though.

Posted by night @ 06:55 AM 4 Comments

Ta-dah! Housing market faces big slowdown

The property market is set for a more severe slowdown than in 2005, according to the most authoritative survey of estate agents, which shows they believe house prices are already falling in almost all areas of the UK and even the rampant London market has recently hit the buffers.

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 06:21 AM 23 Comments

half trillion dollars of losses

BBC: Carnage on Wall Street as loans go bad

"But experts estimate that the total losses facing the financial sector could amount to between $150bn and $450bn, and that many of the banks have hidden losses that have been concealed in off-balance sheet instruments like "special investment vehicles". "The gargantuan scale of potential losses is terrifying investors in banking stocks - which have fallen by 30% - as well as mortgage-bond investors." "The reality is that most financial institutions have barely started to recognize the lower 'fair value' of their impaired securities," "The credit crunch is getting much worse and its financial and real fallout will be severe." "One look at Citigroup, using SEC data, suggested that their potential liability could be $343bn rather than the $55bn they declared. "

Posted by vfr @ 06:17 AM 0 Comments

The fast-inflating economies of China, emerging Asia and Eastern Europe will be reminded globalisation cuts both ways. Jobs can flow from Shanghai to Los Angeles US will retake economic superpower crown

Like a great battleship at sea, the US industrial and export machine is slowly turning around. Within a couple of years, its big guns will be sweeping the world again, ready to silence pious talk about America's trade deficit - and to menace chunks of Europe's manufacturing base.

Posted by chris @ 05:19 AM 1 Comments

Monday, November 12, 2007

Bring it on!!! House prices falling at fastest for over 2 years

House prices are falling at their fastest pace for more than two years as stocks of unsold houses pile up on estate agents books, a leading survey of the property market suggests today.

Posted by hawk @ 11:52 PM 0 Comments

That would scare those who have already taken carry trade money out of Japan, forcing them to reverse course, unwind their trades Insight: Forget the falling dollar but fear a rising yen

If you like rising stocks, you do not want to see a rising yen. If the Bank of Japan envisions Japans economy as adequately strong and suddenly changes policy, increasing interest rates materially pushing the yen up it would kill the carry trade. That would scare those who have already taken carry trade money out of Japan, forcing them to reverse course, unwind their trades, sell stocks, and flood the money back into Japan. In the process, global stocks would suffer, as would the high-yielding countries currencies relative to the yen. With the correlation this high, do not fear a weak dollar; fear a strong yen. Any material sign of Bank of Japan tightening would be very bearish.

Posted by chris @ 11:18 PM 0 Comments

House prices drop say surveyors

BBC news: House prices drop say surveyors

The slowdown in the housing market is becoming more pronounced, says the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics). Its latest survey of members in England and Wales suggests prices in October fell for the third month in a row, and at the fastest pace since July 2005. London was the only part of the country where prices did not fall, according to the Rics survey

Posted by nooneo @ 11:13 PM 1 Comments

Please give me a break House price crash won't affect spending

I am not one of these cynics who spend time waiting for an inevitable crash to happen. I actually made money on property. What gets me is that this should have all ended in 2003 to 2005. The bank of England and the government and the media have made this monster. What gets me is the spin, the surveys, the experts involved???. If I write a paper in science I have to quote all references. I also have to explain my arguments. This does not happen in any articles I read. My estate agent tells me I should not sell my property because it will keep going up in value and should rent????. I am being told this by a guy in his 20's who then walks away when I want to sell. I know I can sell it and still make money but what gets me is the arrogance and strange beliefs of these types of people.

Posted by sasa1502 @ 10:45 PM 0 Comments

The truth is out there!

ThisWasMoney: House prices inch up as slowdown begins

"David Stubbs, senior economist for the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, said a steeper fall in house price inflation was imminent. 'Although today's numbers show annual house price growth remaining in double digits, the slowdown in the UK housing market can clearly be seen,' he said. 'This is the smallest rise for seven months and is the prelude to a sharper reduction in house price growth, which is happening right now."

Posted by confused76 @ 05:58 PM 3 Comments

The hot oil balloon could rise to $100 a barrel Why Wall Street May Let Air Out Of Oil Balloon

This is shaping up to be a hugely important week in energy markets. The hot oil balloon could rise to $100 a barrel. But don't be surprised if Wall Street -- driven by a mountain of expiring futures and options contracts -- steps up and pricks it. The sheer speed with which oil has risen could intensify second-guessing as its price hovers near three digits. "Holding that number is going to require a lot more than just a belief in a momentum trade," says Ben Dell, energy analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. He says the market is hardly ...

Posted by chris @ 04:44 PM 0 Comments

How big is the real damage?

Times Online: Goldman Sachs rebuffs sub-prime skeleton claims

Goldman's $72 billion of obscurely-valued assets stoked speculation that the investment bank had withheld the true extent of its exposure to turmoil in the credit markets.

Posted by peter @ 04:10 PM 0 Comments

10 indestructible jobs : some of which are probably recession proof...

MSN: 10 indestructible jobs

Society is changing but some jobs will always stand the test of time no matter how fast technology evolves and however many machines are invented to do the jobs our great-grand parents once undertook. No matter how much info you can find out on Google and Wikipedia, we will always need people to take care of the sick, teach our children, maintain our cars and keep the tax man at bay! Here are 10 jobs that do just that:

Posted by disillusioned @ 03:48 PM 19 Comments

Another interesting nail in the coffin for the US sub prime market How long till this happens here?

NPR: Homes Left Vacant in Slump Mar Neighborhoods

A vacant home in a decent neighborhood used to be a rarity. But in cities around the country, homeowners and investors unable to afford the homes they bought are abandoning their properties, marring the neighborhoods they leave behind. In Phoenix, once one of the nation's hottest markets, tens of thousands of homes are vacant. The bulk of the homes were owned by investors who hoped to profit from booming housing prices.

Posted by nopensionnohouse @ 03:42 PM 0 Comments

Factory gate price inflation surged to a 12-year high

Times Online: Factory gate inflation hits 12-year high

An immediate cut in interest rates look unlikely as oil and food costs fuel sharpest hike in output costs since December 1995."In a blow to mortgage holders, the figures discount the possibility of an interest rate cut before next spring, analysts said."

Posted by peter @ 02:32 PM 0 Comments

Just another piece of VI trash

Mortgage Solutions: Dancing in the Dark

It's the same old story. The end of the buy-to-let world is nigh, as it has been for the last six years, so the mainstream media say. Despite all of this, buy to let in 2008 will be seen as a safe haven. Why the optimism? The same factors that have always been present. High rental demand and a shortage of housing supply. A third factor is the army of experienced BTL investors who will jump back into the market as soon as it softens.

Posted by little professor @ 12:50 PM 3 Comments

Screwing those who can least afford it.

Belfast Telegraph: 'It's a first-time buyers' market'

Everybody knows the Market is falling in Northern Ireland. Terrible time to buy. Especially for a first time buyer. This is the most immoral article I've read yet. The "Journalist" must have invested a lot in property.

Posted by thetrashheap @ 11:04 AM 8 Comments

OOOooo not crashing at all, no way!

BBC News: House prices 'continue to cool'

Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at Global Insight said the DCLG data "added to the overall impression that housing market activity and prices are now losing significant momentum". He blamed slowing activity, increased affordability pressures and tightening lending practices. "We expect these factors to increasingly bite over the coming months, leading to further marked cooling in the housing sector," he added. Yeah and cooling becoming freezing, followed by absolute zero. Still nice to see that the BBC refuse to admit any form of crash possibly occuring after their years of property ramping articles. Well done UK sheeple you priced out the bottom rung who may now profit whilst your greed becomes misery. Lots of love to Rosie too!

Posted by symo @ 11:04 AM 2 Comments

Loud Resounding Klaxxon Sounds!!!

BBC: Jump in UK factory gate inflation

'Rising petrol, chemicals and food prices sent factory gate inflation soaring to a 12-year high in October. Output price annual inflation rose 3.8% last month, the highest rate since December 1995, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).' Kiss goodbye to the idea of rate cuts!

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:51 AM 39 Comments

Americas housing crisis is far from over.

Times Online: HSBC expected to write down an extra $1bn

"HSBC is expected to report another huge writedown, of more than $1 billion (480 million) by some estimates, on its portfolio of high-risk sub-prime mortgages in the United States, escalating fears that the fallout from Americas housing crisis is far from over."

Posted by peter @ 08:30 AM 0 Comments

Confusing Times

Times Online: Home economics - the property market

"Let us start with the basics. By how much are houses overvalued, in Britain compared with their long-run average? PWCs first answer, based on its housing model, is that prices are 20% higher than they should be. Bring in other factors, such as supply constraints the lack of new houses relative to the rise in the number of households and this figure drops to 10%."

Posted by peter @ 08:25 AM 2 Comments

Fears have risen of a mass unwinding of the yen Yen shock may prompt next wave of market crisis

Just as renewed waves of forced asset sales and bank write-downs risk turning this year's credit market turmoil into a vicious circle, the Japanese yen looks set to deliver another shock to global markets.And as dollar losses against the yen started to spiral on Friday, fears have risen of a mass unwinding of the yen "carry trade" -- currency trades funded by cheap, low interest rate yen and estimated to be worth up to $200 billion.

Posted by chris @ 07:33 AM 1 Comments

Could be another bad week for the banks

The Daily Telegraph: Rule change sounds alarm on Wall Street

Level 3 assets in USA to be 'marked to market' rather than 'marked to make-believe' from Thursday this week.

Posted by hotairmail @ 06:32 AM 0 Comments

VIs ask thisismoney to remove house price crash-ometer

thisismoney: The house price crash-ometer that has lenders worried

The Council of Mortgage Lenders has written to the editor of thisismoney website asking for the removal of the house price crash-ometer complaining that 'tool seems specifically designed to cause maximum alarm' and that they have 'alerted the Nationwide to the way in which their data is being used'. Ohhhhhhh, look who's scared now!!!

Posted by koala bear @ 06:22 AM 9 Comments

Inflation Inflation data to reveal effects of high oil prices

With oil prices rising towards $100 a barrel and gold challenging its record of $850 a troy ounce set in 1980, there are mounting fears over the implications for the global economy. This week brings vital inflation data, expected to reflect the impact of record oil prices, as well as retail spending data as concern grows over the outlook for consumers.

Posted by jason @ 05:39 AM 5 Comments

Public pay up

Independent: Pay for public sector bosses rises by 12.8 per cent

Gordon Brown is facing a major row about the salaries of public sector executives after a report from the Taxpayer's Alliance highlighted pay rises that were six times the rate of inflation. The highest-earning 300 bosses in the public sector saw their salaries increase by 12.8 per cent last year, raising their average to 237,564. Seventeen of the top bosses earned more than 500,000, according to the pressure group's second annual Public Sector Rich List.

Posted by jason @ 05:36 AM 0 Comments

The Yakuza responsible for the Japan property boom?

Independent: Blood ties: Yakuza daughter lifts lid on hidden hell of gangsters' families

I think when people are sifting through the rubble of UK PLC, we will find plenty of gangsters involved in mortgage fraud. We need to hold Estate Agents personally accountable. Yakuza income has shrunk along with the rest of the economy, but some groups have moved out of traditional business such as prostitution and loan-sharking into real estate. A government-funded study in the late-1990s found that as much as 42 per cent of bad loans from banks involved organised crime. Guardian Article on Shoko Tendo

Posted by lvmreader @ 04:18 AM 2 Comments

Now you have some!

Globe and Mail: Thought the subprime mess was bad? Wait till the accountants get involved

"There's already plenty of chatter about dealers' Level 3 exposure. Take Citigroup, for instance. In a recent SEC filing, they said they had $135-billion (U.S.) in Level 3 assets. They have an equity base of $128-billion, so their Level 3 exposure is 105 per cent of equity. Goldman has $72-billion in Level 3, or 185 per cent of their $35-billion in equity." "And a report from the Royal Bank of Scotland this week predicted the total losses from Level 3 writedowns will be somewhere between $250-billion and $500-billion."

Oh my, oh my!

Posted by lvmreader @ 04:10 AM 5 Comments

Being the chief executive of a Wall Street bank is not much fun these days, thanks to the sub-prime crisis. They are dropping like flies. What lurks beneath the surface for banks?

What lurks beneath the surface for banks? Wall Street has already been hit hard by the sub-prime crisis and no one believes that British banks will escape unscathed. But there is huge uncertainty about how severe the pain will be, says Iain Dey

Posted by chris @ 03:14 AM 0 Comments

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Mervyn Christmas!!


"Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its nerve and decided to hold interest rates at 5.75% this week. This gave us a fascinating insight into the currently divergent interests of retailers and the rest of the economy. While the former want you to splurge like never before this Christmas, giving in to every indulgent desire as they seek to maximise profits, the MPC would prefer you kept your stockings on your thighs and anywhere but the mantelpiece."... this is what I call profound commentary

Posted by confused76 @ 09:04 PM 1 Comments

"This is going to be the largest repayment shock on record"

ThisWasMoney: Millions braced for mortgage rate leap

"Monthly payments agreed last month on two-year, 150,000 loans were nearly 200 higher than in 2005"... but rates only go down and prices up, and migrants migrate here to breed and then divorce... UAAAAAAAA AHAHHHH... sorry I forgot the students... AHHHHHHA HHAHHAHHA. Here we go the "security" of brick and mortar pensions... EAT YOUR BRICKS when you retire, but in the meanwhile pay more to your true landlord: the bank! UAHHHAHHA HAHAHHAHH AHHHHA

Posted by confused76 @ 06:06 PM 17 Comments

More truths behind the great property swindle

thisismoney: We've lost thousands with Inside Track

Brenda Davies responded to an advert by property investment company Inside Track in August 2004, attended a free workshop and then spent 2,495 to attend a two-day seminar. But now Brenda says the mortgage shortfalls, capital loss, and fees paid to Inside Track and other firms left her out of pocket by more than 100,000 ...... Oh, the high price of greed!

Posted by uncle chris @ 04:07 PM 12 Comments

Another One to Bite the Dust !!

Independent on Sunday: Banks hit again as HSBC prepares to reveal more sub-prime losses

HSBC are due to announce writedowns this coming week, could we be in for another dramatic share drop and possibly another run on the banks. This may give us some idea of how much Barclay's may have to write down. Things are not looking rosy at all in the banking sector.

Posted by jj @ 03:17 PM 0 Comments

Remember, it couldn't happen here.

Times: Recession talk could remain just that

With the US heading into recession, and the oil prices at $100 what next for the global economy? Thankfully, it couldn't happen here could it?

Posted by davros @ 01:57 PM 0 Comments

Properties are hard to sell

Times: Will the value of your property fall next year?

"If there is the slightest problem with a property, people will walk away. The only exception is with very desirable properties, which are still selling well and seeing competitive bidding. Properties spoiled in any way, by say road noise, are very hard to sell."

Posted by confused76 @ 11:08 AM 13 Comments

Buy to Let TAX dodge

Money Week: Buy to Let TAX dodge

Just reading Money Week, November issue, Buy to Letters, if they sale now they will have to pay 40% capital gains tax, if they wait until April they only have to pay 18% CGT Does that mean the big falls will start in April?

Posted by gatwick1990 @ 10:11 AM 0 Comments

If the BOE cut rates, look what we'll be importing more of!

BBC News: China moves to cool its inflation

Chinese inflation hit 6.5% in August, its highest level since 1997, before declining slightly to 6.2% in September. October's data, which is out on Tuesday, is expected to show that inflation has risen again to 6.4%. The UK and USA are painted into a corner. Stagflation, stagflation, stagflation !

Posted by c'mon correction @ 09:27 AM 1 Comments

Rip Btl

Firstrung: Firstrung, first time buyers, the week in focus

The past week saw the buy to let industry battered with more negative comment. When an organisation, with the perceived authortiy of RICS, finally calls time on this harmful practice then the so called 'investors' really need to; buy the coffee, get it home and open the bag. However, for most of them it's simply too late...

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:23 AM 2 Comments

Market close to gridlock ....

Telegraph: House buyers back out of property deals

Falling house prices are causing buyers to pull out of property transactions in large numbers. Estate agents and mortgage brokers warn that the market is close to gridlock, with chains collapsing through buyers taking fright. With prices falling for the second month running, Britain's biggest broker, Charcol, has seen a rise of more than 50 per cent in the past six months of purchasers dropping out even though a mortgage had been agreed.

Posted by uncle chris @ 08:05 AM 13 Comments

A Black Hole At Barclays?

Sunday Times: Business Article

Nonsense! I have been speakin to Adam Applegarth and he assures me that there is no blackhole at Barclays...

Posted by orwell @ 07:45 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Let's hope Poxtons will close for good

Independent: Property websites: Is this the end of the estate-agent rip-off?

A new generation of home-sales websites claim to offer better service than their high-street rivals, for a fraction of the fee. Helen Brown meets one of the trailblazers and a satisfied customer

Posted by doomwatch @ 07:01 PM 1 Comments

YEEEESSSSSSSSSSS.... It's a meltdown... 20% fall in BTL deals

Herald: Credit crunch begins to hit home as rising numbers turned down for cards and mortgages

"Lenders are also pulling mortgage deals from the market. Moneyfacts calculates that the number of homeloans has fallen by 40% over the past few months. The biggest drop is in so-called sub-prime loans - mortgages for people with poor credit histories. But there has also been a 16% fall in the number of prime residential deals and a 20% decline in numbers of prime buy-to-let mortgages."

Posted by confused76 @ 06:28 PM 17 Comments

BTL on the rocks

Times: Buy-to-let will come to be seen less as a one-way bet than a rich mans game

A BTLer wrote: "I put 3 of my BTL houses on the market. By the autumn they had sold but not without serious price reductions from the asking prices advised by the various Agents I went to. I wish I had put all 6 up for sale in the Spring!! I put the remaining 3 BTL properties on the market in the Autumn to realise as much profit as I can. Like many other BTL'ers I need to do this before all the capital appreciation profit evapourates. There is not much interest out there and it is necessary to reduce prices drastically to get the interest and potential of an actual sale" MWAAY AUAUUAU AAAHHHHA HAHHAHHHA HAHAHHH

Posted by confused76 @ 05:57 PM 4 Comments


Times: The house partys over for buy-to-let investorsThe house partys over for buy-to-let investors

"It is not just borrowers who need to adapt to changing economic circumstances. Investors must also choose carefully. The one market where a reappraisal is required more than most is buy-to-let. Over the past ten years it has been difficult not to make money as a landlord. Capital gains have been impressive as house prices have rocketed skywards while strong rental demand has provided a decent and reliable income. But the party is now well and truly over." UAAHHHAHHA AHHAHHAH AHHAHAHHH AHAHHAHHA

Posted by confused76 @ 05:52 PM 0 Comments

The people aint getting the loans they want

Metro: 'Growing number' rejected for loans

Growing numbers of consumers are having loan applications turned down, while a number of providers are pulling out of the market altogether. The proportion of people being accepted for a personal loan has fallen every month since April as lenders tighten their lending criteria, according to financial website

Posted by jason @ 06:35 AM 0 Comments

Citigroup call the top!

Times Online: Toxic mix to drive down house prices

House prices are at risk of falling next year as a "toxic mix" of rising interest rates, overvaluation and debt weighs on the market, investment bank Citigroup has warned. Michael Saunders, the bank's chief European economist, is predicting a fall of 1pc-2pc with a "sizeable risk the outturn will be worse". He believes the decline will be led by a collapse in the buy-to-let market as rising mortgage rates and falling rental yields deter investors after a decade in which house prices have tripled.

Posted by jason @ 06:28 AM 3 Comments

Friday, November 9, 2007

At last it's arrived in the smart media

Financial Times: House price correction threatens EU growth

Among the threats it identifies is a worsening of the financial turmoil that could hit housing markets in Europe as well as the US thereby deepening and prolonging the ongoing corrections.

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 09:57 PM 1 Comments

Thank you for subsidizing the tenants

ThisIsMoney: Buy-to-let has become a 'rich man's game'

'Would-be investors who have missed out on the impressive returns of previous years are now finding the hurdles to property investment are higher than they imagined. 'However, existing landlords should be able to use the equity in their past investment properties to fund the deposit needed for new ones, and this should ensure that demand from the buy-to-let sector does not dry up entirely.' Mwaaauuuauuuuuuhhhhahhhhhhhhh

Posted by confused76 @ 09:50 PM 4 Comments

That cooling word again

FT: FT index confirms housing market cooling

House price inflation peaked in June , with the market slowing ever since, the November FT house price index shows. Half of the regional markets in England and Wales have experienced falling house prices since the June peak.

Posted by doomwatch @ 09:49 PM 2 Comments

Take The Money And Run 30 percent of prime property sales 'are for downsizing purposes'

The race for the exits has started as Savills reckon that loads of people are taking the money and running as fast as they can while they still can.

Posted by enuii @ 07:39 PM 1 Comments


FT Alphaville: Banks Hammered as CDO Defaults Spike

First CDO liquidation, it means the banks won't be able to mark to myth. Check out for a better explanation than I can give.

Posted by the emperors new clothes @ 05:06 PM 0 Comments

Rent or Buy calculation

The Daily Reconing: Obsessed About Owning A House

Guest contributor Andrew Lees, mulls whether hes better off as a buyer or renter of his home Its lonely being a thirty-something couple not owning a house. There arent many of us around. When I mentioned to a colleague last week that wed sold and are now renting, she gave me that patronising Aah, bless! look. Im still amazed at the number of supposedly rational people who are obsessed with owning a house

Posted by ticktock @ 04:55 PM 0 Comments

House Prices Fall for Two Consecutive Months

Market Oracle: UK Housing Bear Market Has Begun

The Market Oracle's New enhanced affordability index indicates that UK house prices are now at extreme levels of unaffordability not seen since 1989. The indicator also clearly shows why house prices were extremely under valued for nearly 8 years right into 2002, when many housing pundits were prematurely calling for a UK house price crash without doing the sums on affordability.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 03:52 PM 9 Comments

They're certainly not denying it, because that would be lying

Telegraph: Barclays denies $10bn rumour as shares slide

Time to walk very calmly to your nearest branch and kindly request to have your savings back ...

Posted by paul @ 03:05 PM 13 Comments

UK Journos take note

BBC: Housing meltdown hits US economy

The arguments for no crash in UK property hot spots such as London trotted out by the bullish journos are currently low unemplyment and expanding population (demand). However, take not journo dummies "And the housing crash is now extending to the formerly "hot" housing markets in Southern California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida, where expanding populations and a strong economy were expected to keep prices high."

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:51 PM 7 Comments

Stocks crash coming soon

Mclaren report: November 09 2007 CNBC Squawkbox Europe

We have had the secondary high. Now for the crash.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:47 PM 3 Comments

"Busting a cap in the Greenback's a***" - literal excerpt

Urban Dirt - Timesonline Blog: Is the US dollar a load of old rap?

"Jay-Z says sell dollar-euro!" was the excitable scream in certain dark corners of Tokyo's currency floors this morning as the clip did the rounds on the message-boards and trader chat-rooms.
Which is all very well, but does rather depend on where you think Jay-Z (or any other rich rapper, for that matter) features in the wider currency cycle. Are these artists leading or lagging indicators? Are the forex decisions made in Brooklyn and West Compton ahead or behind Wall Street and the City? Is it like the story of John Pierpont Morgan and the shoe-shine boy? Does Jay-Z's coded bull-call on the euro mark the bottom for the dollar, or will the market "pop another cap" in the greenback's a***?

Posted by lvmreader @ 01:01 PM 5 Comments

Enough to head off peak oil?

Just like in the US the building companies share price was a pre cursor to the inevitable crash.Interesting to read the comments on this article especially the bloke from Manchester.BTL by any chance?

times online: Quietening down on the building sites

Potential customers are adopting that most frustrating of tactics to sellers doing nothing. They are sitting on their hands and waiting waiting to see if asking prices come down, waiting in the hopes of bigger and better perks like part exchange offers on existing homes, waiting to see if better mortgage offers come along. Visits to show homes are down. Sales volumes are falling. And selling prices are becalmed

Posted by sold out @ 12:09 PM 5 Comments


Times Online: Decision over Mervyn Kings future put on hold until new year

"There was irritation within the Treasury that he had confirmed publicly that Mr Darling had decided, with the Bank, that it should not sanction the loan of up to 30 billion to help Northern Rocks takeover by Lloyds TSB."

I bet there was irritation - it blows a hole through any notion of independence of the Bank of England!

Posted by paul @ 11:58 AM 0 Comments

even the bbc are calling it nothern crock

bbc: Run on the Bank: Northern Crock

Northern Rock is Britain's eighth largest high street bank and until recently was the darling of the City of London. Now it's in crisis, struggling for its very survival, propped up by the Bank of England, and waiting as potential buyers circle.

Posted by seanb303 @ 11:51 AM 2 Comments

Merrill Lynched - 27bn up the aisle....

Timesonline: New wave of debt pain hits Merrill and Dresdner

I promise that Morgan Stanley's $3.7bn is just a small downpayment on the blood and tears. If Merrill is on the hook for $27bn, Morgan Stanley, Citi, JPMorgan, Barclays all have losses at least as big. Watch out for merger announcements and jail terms. Think the US Economy cannot fail, think again. Muhuhahahahaha!

Posted by lvmreader @ 11:41 AM 5 Comments

Thank heavens for the knowledge economy

BBC: UK trade gap widens in September

The UK's monthly trade deficit widened to a record in September, following a rise in imports of consumer goods, according to official figures.

Posted by holding out @ 11:22 AM 4 Comments

a fine bouquet..vintage 1987

Telegraph: The witches' brew of 1987 is back again

We forget now, but the triple backdrop to the Wall Street crash in October 1987 was a tumbling dollar, record oil prices, and an inflation mini-scare across the world.

Posted by mark @ 10:50 AM 0 Comments

Nothing new.

The crash is officially underway

Bloomberg: U.K. House Prices Fall for Second Month

The single monthly decline in September was dismissed as a blip. But this second monthly decline in October almost certainly exposes a trend.

Posted by paul @ 10:17 AM 5 Comments

Acadametrics admit their figures are dross

Acadametrics: Acadametrics October figures

October HPI up to 0.7% "Monthly rates are subject to fluctuations and we would see the October figure as something of a blip set against the continuing fall in the annual inflation rate"

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 10:05 AM 0 Comments

A Balancing act

FT.COM: Mixed hopes for investors as housing market signs go to amber

Make what you will of it, but the article is indicating the BTL market might not be in that much trouble. Seems for every doomsayer story there is a positive outcome.

Posted by damagesmith @ 09:58 AM 0 Comments

2nd consecutive monthly fall!

HBOS Website: 08.11.07 Halifax House Price Index - October

How long can the Nationwide continue showing m-o-m gains?

Posted by neither here nor there @ 09:34 AM 0 Comments

Borrowing to pay off your debts! Mmmmm, that's not too clever...

Telegraph: Banks end the era of easy loan cash

'Loans have become increasingly popular with families trying to juggle different debts, with two thirds of loans used to pay off other debts. With rates going up and lending criteria getting stricter, it could trigger a major financial headache for many stretched families.'

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:30 AM 4 Comments

How prepared is the UK for Economic collapse

Energy Bulletin: Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US

Slide [7] I've described what happened to Russia in some detail in one of my articles, which is available on I don't see why what happens to the United States should be entirely dissimilar, at least in general terms. The specifics will be different, and we will get to them in a moment. We should certainly expect shortages of fuel, food, medicine, and countless consumer items, outages of electricity, gas, and water, breakdowns in transportation systems and other infrastructure, hyperinflation, widespread shutdowns and mass layoffs, along with a lot of despair, confusion, violence, and lawlessness. We definitely should not expect any grand rescue plans, innovative technology programs, or miracles of social cohesion.

Posted by lvmreader @ 06:21 AM 23 Comments

These thresholds are not only psychological, they cause mainstream awareness.

BBC News: 1 per Litre Petrol Drives Peak Oil on Mainstream TV

On Wednesday 7th November 2007 the mainstream 10:30pm ITV news in the UK discusses the "peak oil" documentary Crude Awakening, hears the IEA warning of much higher oil prices, shows how many countries have already peaked and speaks to David Strahan ( This and passing the $100/barrel oil price will turn focus on peak oil and inflation and put huge pressure on central banks to increase interest rates, putting further pressure on asset classes such as houses.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 12:59 AM 0 Comments

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Comical Ali

Assetz: Landlords 'maintaining faith in the UK buy-to-let market'

Sorry I feel compelled to post Assetz, it is so entertaining. "Perhaps the only certainty amid all the speculation is that those UK property investors who remain focused on medium and long-term investment will continue to seek advantages where they can, as market conditions continue to evolve." So what is the certainty? say it again...

Posted by confused76 @ 10:22 PM 7 Comments

A new scenario born in the USA. Surging inflation+sliding interest rates.

The Fed: U.S. faces risks of downturn, inflation: Bernanke

"Quite frankly, I think we are at a moment of economic crisis stemming from four key areas: falling housing prices, lack of confidence in creditworthiness, the weak dollar and high oil prices," said Schumer, D-N.Y. "Each of these problems alone would be enough of a threat to our economic well-being. But taken together, they are essentially the four horsemen of economic crisis."

Posted by yoyo1 @ 10:10 PM 7 Comments

Amatuer BTL is a Dead Duck

Reuters: Buy-to-let is now only for the rich

RICS say that the buy-to-let market is officially stagnant as would-be-investors now need 500 percent more capital to put down as a deposit than they did five years ago which makes BTL investments an unattractive proposition for vast swathes of the population.

Posted by enuii @ 08:38 PM 2 Comments

Sanity returns to the credit market ....

Firstrung: Buy to Let investment a 'dead duck' unless you have a 65K deposit - RICS

The buy-to-let market is now so inaccessible to the average investor that only the wealthy can afford to be become landlords, says an RICS report published today. Barriers to entering the buy-to-let market, driven by interest rates and levels of rental cover ratios for mortgages; have made investment an unattractive proposition for vast swathes of the population. In the current climate, would-be-investors need to lay down a deposit of 65,600 (30 percent of a property's value) for the average UK house in order to get a foothold on the buy-to-let ladder. This compares dramatically with the 10,100 (only eight percent of a property's value) required in Q1 2002 - a deterioration of over 500 percent in 5 years.

Posted by uncle chris @ 07:35 PM 5 Comments

Hmmmm - not a good time to lose your job ....

Times: BT to shed 5,000 in white-collar cull

BT has revealed that 2,000 managers have left the telecoms giant since May, as part of the first wave of a restructuring that is likely to entail the departure of 5,000 managers. "We are seeing a move away from managers to hire 2,500 engineers and front line staff," a spokesman said.

Posted by uncle chris @ 07:22 PM 0 Comments

Prices drop second month in row ....

Halifax: House Price Index

House prices fell by 0.5% in October. Overall, house prices in the three months to October were 0.3% higher than in the previous quarter. This continues the steady downward trend experienced since the end of 2006 ..... but then comes the usual "strong economy, lack of houses, prices can't possibly fall" line.

Posted by uncle chris @ 07:15 PM 2 Comments

Looks as though the tide has turned House prices fall for second month

The property market is "deteriorating faster than expected" and homeowners should brace themselves for a prolonged dip in house prices, analysts have said.

Posted by frank @ 05:42 PM 0 Comments

Gold price and The Economist Gold's Infallible Indicator - Six Months Later

Article about the time lag between The Economist's bearish articles on gold and the gold price taking off six months later.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 02:55 PM 3 Comments

Another more pressing issue....

Times: US fears Israeli strike against Iran over latest nuclear claim

Time to pack or decide to stay....

Posted by @ 01:33 PM 0 Comments

Why UK Houspricecrash is inevitable

FT: Banks writedowns arent big enough

The whole insane credit game has a tsunami approaching. Big banks have admitted to $28bn losses from subprime so far. This article produces estimates from various places that the total figure is more likely to be $200bn when this is done and dusted. UK Banks will suffer some of this. When they turn off the taps of money how many billions of GBP will it be when our UK house of cards crashes next?

Posted by happyrenterz @ 01:13 PM 0 Comments

London to remain unscathed! Cor blimey, who'd have 'thunk' it?

Firstrung: House prices in the South West and Midlands will see steepest price correction - Experian

Report predicts that Greater London will remain unscathed and indeed out perform the rest of the UK when the evidence from, for example, who are arguably better placed to report on such matters, proves otherwise. The Experian report predicts a modest 'tail off' in house price growth for London to finish in 2009 with 6% growth, this is completely contrary to the primelocation report and in that context alone the Experian report lacks credibility. Average 'Greater' London prices are currently eight times average London household income, that marks London and its boroughs as not only the epicentre of the credit crunch but ironically, given the reach of global markets, the epicentre of a potential severe house price correction.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:23 PM 11 Comments

Are they seriously blaming an impending collapse on a 300 quid survey?

Firstrung: NAEA survey claims HIPS having adverse affect on house sales

A survey of members conducted by the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) has produced the largest response ever to one of its surveys with over 1000 replies indicating what a contentious issue HIPs still are.Over the past 10 days members were asked to compare the market this October to the same time last year. The results show that 83% of agents have found that requests for market appraisals have dropped with 9% of respondents finding a reduction of more than 50%. When asked about the change in the number of instructions for 3 or more bedroom properties, a staggering 76% stated that they had seen decreases in excess of 10% of which 46% had seen a drop in excess of 30%. This compares with a much smaller reduction for 1 or 2 bedroom properties with 37% of respondents finding a dr

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:19 PM 15 Comments

Did you believe the Government, when it repeatedly told us that the days of "boom and bust" are over? If so, think again.

Daily Mail: So just how worried should we be?

"The nice decade of noninflationary growth, cheap mortgages, soaring house prices and easy credit looks as if it is coming to a juddering halt."

Posted by disillusioned @ 12:06 PM 3 Comments

As expected

BBC: UK rates stay unchanged at 5.75%

The Bank of England has kept UK interest rates unchanged at 5.75% for the fourth month in a row in a widely expected move.

Posted by holding out @ 12:03 PM 9 Comments

Gordon Browns gold sales in 1999

Safe Haven: Gold as an Alternative Investment

Gordon Brown (now Prime Minister) of Britain sold 415 tonnes of gold, almost 60% of its total reserves, leaving Britain with only 300 tonnes. 11 days earlier, Brown had requested the IMF to sell $10 billion of its gold on the open market too. So far no real reason has been officially offered for selling gold in such a hurry.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:30 AM 10 Comments

Will somebody pleeease just put them out of their misery....

FT: Lombard; Northern Flyer

basic marketing 101... send out flyers.... "Given the publicity for the Rocks plight, recipients first reaction is hardly likely to be: Hmm, Northern Rock - I havent heard of them: better take a look. On this matter, how long will the management of RBS and Barclays fiddle while their stocks bomb??? Isn't time to just 'fess up'???

Posted by bingo @ 10:34 AM 0 Comments

More ramping from RICS

Channel4 News: Buy-to-Let 'a rich man's game'

A rise in the size of the deposit people need to put down, as well as higher interest rates, means only the wealthy can afford to become landlords, says RICS. David Stubbs, RICS economist, said: "It takes more capital than ever to set up a BTL investment. Would-be investors who have missed out on the impressive returns of previous years are now finding the hurdles to property investment are higher than they imagined. "However, existing landlords should be able to use the equity in their past properties to fund the deposit needed for new ones, and this should ensure that demand from the buy-to-let sector does not dry up."

Posted by little professor @ 10:06 AM 8 Comments

Morgan Stanley takes $3.7bn hit

BBC News: Morgan Stanley takes $3.7bn hit

Apparently MS can afford to lose this kind of money without too much of an impact!

Posted by treeza @ 09:50 AM 0 Comments

Race to the bottom

The Telegraph: Sarkozy fears 'economic war as dollar slides

"French president warns US it cannot allow currency to collapse as Europe suffers from euro's rise"

The race to the bottom for currencies/IRs has started.

The GBP will be next as our housing bubble bursts and consumers pull back.

The EUR will be last out of the starting blocks as it is not even clear that its IR tightening cycle has finished

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:33 AM 5 Comments

0.5% down in October

BBC: Halifax sees house price slowdown

"...prices fell by 0.5% in October..."
Full report here .
The last 6 months has seen wait for it ... 0.6% growth in prices (i.e. a fall because this is below RPI).

Posted by voiceofreason @ 09:26 AM 12 Comments

Watch the buggers go

Halifax: Halifax - monthly national index

Halifax - down 0.5% for October

Posted by phdinbubbles @ 08:58 AM 1 Comments

We are all getting scared now

Motley Fool: Low Confidence Hits House Prices And High Street

How confident are you feeling about your financial future? Not very....

Posted by microbe @ 08:07 AM 1 Comments

This should put rates on hold

BBC News: Average petrol cost at 1 a litre

And remember, crack spreads are yet to catch up with eye watering oil prices, which see's no abating. I still think that when rates move next, they will move up.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 12:27 AM 14 Comments

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Still any doubt ?

Mail: 'Half the country' to see house prices fall

Half the country will see house price falls in the next 18 months driven by the knock-on effects of the worldwide squeeze on credit, according to a study out today

Posted by confused76 @ 07:04 PM 10 Comments

Property blackspot in the Black Country

Birmingham Mail: Birmingham housing market facing

BIRMINGHAM families are set to see thousands of pounds wiped off the value of their homes in a new house price crisis, a new report claimed this afternoon. The city was tipped to bear the brunt of the property downturn as analysts predicted higher interest rates and the credit crunch would bite hard over the next 18 months. New figures suggested the West Midlands would be the country's worst hit area for falling house prices. Information group Experian said up to four per cent could be wiped from the value of properties in the region.

Posted by uncle chris @ 06:47 PM 4 Comments

25 real estate markets poised to fall

CNN: 25 real estate markets poised to fall

One way to know where housing prices are headed is to look at their relationship to rents. As Fortune's data show, big declines are needed to bring prices and rents back in line.................

Posted by mark @ 06:27 PM 0 Comments

The crisis has only begun

Bloomberg: Bank face $100bn writedowns

Even UK banks will take a hit: "U.S. banks and brokers face as much as $100 billion of writedowns because of Level 3 accounting rules, in addition to the losses caused by the subprime credit slump, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc."

Posted by yes @ 06:02 PM 0 Comments

The next downturn will turn into a depression

MoneyWeek: House prices: expect the worst

In August 2005, Fred Harrison told MoneyWeek that the UK property boom would last for another three years, before ending in 2008. Here he updates his forecast.

Posted by mary @ 05:24 PM 5 Comments

Barclays Teeters....

The Times: Business Article

Is it just an Autumn sneeze?

Posted by orwell @ 04:55 PM 0 Comments

Does anyone believe national statistics any more?

Welling @ Weeden and Shadowing Reality - Economist Keeps Tabs On Governments Creative Statistical Reports

You have been a practicing economist for a long time, as I understand itand one of these days you hope to get a forecast right. Isnt that the line? [...] I started out specializing in econometric forecasting, particularly of the U.S. economy and interest rates. [...] We did very well with our economic and interest rate forecasting but early on I noticed that something seemed to be askew with the GNP forecast. As I looked into it, I found that there were some problems with the governments GNP reports, tied to to misreporting of the trade deficit See for more.

Posted by president d szvaselinovic @ 04:47 PM 0 Comments

It's their pension, not a get rich quick scheme

Firstrung: Buy to let landlords still bullish

"Residential property investment is not a means of getting rich quick." - David Salusbury NLA. Erm, can we respectfully ask then "what's the point"? We thought that was the whole point. Oh sorry we get it, buy to let landlords are in it for their pension (yawn) and to put back into society the much needed 'bridge' for those in between; jobs, decisions, life changes and to plug a gap that only the private sector could....What's next, landlords asking for charitable status?

Posted by converted lurker @ 04:30 PM 5 Comments

Call for health warnings on BTL

Channel4 News: Buy-to-Let investors to be warned

Buy-to-let mortgages should carry investment-style warnings as rising interest rates and the threat of house price falls put landlords at risk of losing money, according to law firm Moore Blatch. Investments regulated by the FSA must carry a warning that their value can go down as well as up. The group said that as a buy-to-let property is also an investment, people may seek legal redress if they think they were not warned that their returns could fluctuate. "Many will have seen buy-to-let as a guaranteed investment."

Posted by little professor @ 04:21 PM 4 Comments

2.10 the the greenback Dollar Sinks to new lows

The dollar sank to new lows against sterling and the euro on Wednesday after comments about Chinas foreign reserves from one of the countrys senior politicians.

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 03:58 PM 1 Comments

Six-figure salary and still renting.

Fairfax Australia: Six-figure salary and still renting.

"Having got my specialty qualification as an anaesthetist [last year], my income had risen quite significantly," Cox says. "Despite that, I decided not to buy a house because I could rent one much better."

Posted by killer_bob @ 01:12 PM 0 Comments

Economic Confidence

Safe Haven: The Stock Market and the Business Cycle

Article about 8.6-year global business cycle. This ties in nicely with the 17-18 year secular cycles seen in property, stocks and commodities.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:46 PM 6 Comments

Instant Negative Equity

Money Week: Don't sign away your freedom for a purple Audi

Another excellent article from Merry (similar to the one last night in the London Evening Standard). This got me thinking, has anybody taken out a mortgage over recent (5) years than can not be classed as "sub prime". By NOT sub prime I mean a multiple < 3.5 REAL salary and deposit > 10%.

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:21 PM 7 Comments

Is King getting his say in before he's pushed out?

Telegraph: Rift with Darling puts King's job on the line

Good section at end listing possible candidates for his replacement. "The Governor of the Bank of England is appointed by the Queen, who acts on the advice of the Prime Minister. Gordon Brown will receive a shortlist of potential candidates from the Treasury. Following the crisis at Northern Rock, he is likely to take discreet soundings from the City. Mervyn King was expected to be reappointed for a second five year term but the Government is thought to be considering other candidates."

Posted by nelson @ 09:14 AM 17 Comments

American disaster

BB News: US mortgage crisis: Readers' stories

"I am a realtor ... Now our adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) is due to adjust in November." I'm not sure what to say here! This is the best example I have ever seen of house price hubris and stupidity.

Posted by quiet guy @ 08:58 AM 10 Comments

Interesting Stats

BBC News: The UK Family in Statistics

"Families are changing shape and facing up to new lifestyle challenges. The facts and figures below give an idea of what the typical UK family looks like in the early 21st century." Read down to the bottom: Average weekly expenditure = 601.20 Therefore average annual expenditure = 31,262.40 BUT average household income BEFORE tax is 32,779. So the "average" family is eating into savings / taking on more debt every week.

Posted by paulos @ 08:31 AM 5 Comments

so much for supply and demand

the times: Sharp decline in confidence knocks sales of new houses

The fallout from the global credit squeeze claimed another victim on this side of the Atlantic as one of Britains biggest housebuilders yesterday blamed an abrupt turnaround in consumer confidence for a drop in house sales.

Posted by seanb303 @ 08:06 AM 7 Comments

Gold heading for $3000 by 2012

The Telegraph: Oil, gold and euro surge to record prices

"Gold has surged $180 an ounce since mid-August. The last time it moved in this fashion, in May 2006, it gave up almost all the gains in a matter of weeks. The concern is that buyers for the jewellery industry will hold back until the price falls, while European central banks are likely to take advantage of the spike to offload bullion."

When gold corrects sharply, this is the time to add to positions. This upleg is going into spring of 2008 before a major consolidation phase.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 07:28 AM 16 Comments

Front Page News - and not before time!

The Independent: A financial crisis that began in the US is coming to a home near you

As American banks admit the billion-dollar scale of their losses, Bank of England Governor warns that the worst is still to come in Britain

Posted by wiltshire @ 12:28 AM 0 Comments

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Siv's ... CDO's ... get them while they're cheap, their lovely ...

FT: Risk of securities fire sale mounts

The risk of fire sales of securities was rising on Tuesday after rating agencies declared that a clutch of complex debt vehicles had defaulted and signs emerged that the superfund plan backed by the US Treasury had stalled. There is also a mounting threat of fire sales by collateralised debt obligations, as rating downgrades puts more of the vehicles in technical default. Such sales would drive down prices, putting more pressure on banks with subprime exposure.

Posted by uncle chris @ 09:23 PM 0 Comments

All bet's on Soros. BOE not exactly what i mean!!!!

Times: George Soros warns of 'serious' US correction

CORRECTION!!!!! Dont you mean CRASH. I say 99% chance of recession in the USA and a property and stock market crash in the UK. we will be making room for China, India and Russia. Well done Gordon Brown you loose

Posted by lee @ 08:38 PM 0 Comments

House prices to 'slow not crash'

Guardian: House prices to 'slow not crash'

The UK housing market is heading for a slowdown rather than a crash, it was predicted today. etc. My rse

Posted by buddleia @ 07:26 PM 3 Comments

Is Greenspan making a VI appeal ?

Bloomberg: Greenspan Says Dollar Won't Fall More Against Euro

"Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the U.S. currency is unlikely to weaken further against the euro". but "over the long term it will fall against Asian currencies". "The U.S. currency has also fallen this year against nine of the 10 most traded currencies in Asia outside Japan, losing 11.1 percent against the Indian rupee and 10.6 percent versus the Philippine peso". "Greenspan said there was an ``overhang of supply'' and that US home prices would have to fall further"

Posted by alan @ 07:22 PM 6 Comments

Oil ..... $97 and rising .....

BBC: Oil races to fresh high above $97

Oil prices have risen to a record high of $97 a barrel, amid concerns over tight fuel stocks and a weak US dollar. US crude oil rose a further $3 in trading on Tuesday, while the price of London Brent crude climbed to a record level of $93.10 a barrel.

Posted by uncle chris @ 06:52 PM 5 Comments

US housing in freefall Fear and Loathing have returned to credit markets

Futures index showing expectation of US housing to continue falling until after 2010. Although it's not a very liquid market, the index is a good indication of the fear in credit markets.

Posted by umisenyamasen @ 06:37 PM 0 Comments

Realism from Chartered Surveyor

Property Week: "values have fallen 10% since July"

Robert Peto, the chairman of DTZ UK, told delegates at the RICS International Valuation Conference today that valuers should be braver about writing down property values in the wake of the market slowdown and the credit crunch. The latest Investment Property Databank valuation figures massively underestimate the slump in the market, according to the RICS valuation faculty head.

Posted by thf andrew @ 05:44 PM 0 Comments

Alan's big plan

Cnn Money: Greenspan: Cutting home inventories

"The critical issue on the whole subprime, and by extension, the international financial system rests very narrowly on getting rid of probably 200,000-300,000 excess units in inventory," Greenspan told a business leaders' forum

Posted by max @ 05:38 PM 1 Comments

contagion from Wall Street to Main Street still seems illusory

The Times: Crisis, what crisis? America carries on

" .....Then there is a third group the muddling-through crowd. They continue to think that, despite everything, the fundamentals of the modern US economy really are sound; inflation is under control; global demand is booming; wages are growing, and all will be able to withstand the current nastiness. Whether they are right or wrong, it is the people in this third group that still seem to have the ear of investors. " For how long?

Posted by jonathan @ 05:11 PM 0 Comments

Talk about closing the stable door after the horse has bolted!

BBC News: New bank protection laws imminent

A new law will be introduced in the coming year to improve safeguards for banks in danger of going bust, and to protect savers' money. The government wants to reform the current system which has been widely criticised in the wake of the near collapse of the Northern Rock bank. The new laws may include a higher level of protection for depositors and a new legal regime to rescue insolvent banks.

Posted by dave the box @ 03:40 PM 2 Comments

Oh Dear - Tenants Trashed Her Flat

Southend Evening Echo: Tenants Trashed My Flat

BTL having problems with bad tenants.

Posted by leigh on sea - overpriced @ 02:01 PM 9 Comments

Mixed message from the CML on income support help for defaulting mrotgage holders

Firstrung: The Council of Mortgage Lenders urges government to review income support for mortgage holders

The Council of Mortgage Lenders is asking the government to review income support for mortgage interest in order to increase home ownership. In its latest news & views newsletter, the CML says that aspirations of home ownership are unlikely to be affected by the predicted slowdown in the housing market in 2008. With arrears and repossession likely to increase further in 2008, the government must decide now on what consequences it is prepared to accept to offset the greater risk of lending to marginal borrowers. The CML warns that affordability represents a significant barrier to the government's objective of extending home ownership to three-quarters of the population.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:59 AM 16 Comments

Problems Facing The US Economy: A Doomsday Primer The Catastrophist View

Duff McDonald offers a brilliantly simplified overview of the 5 major crises facing the US - and therefore global - economy, concentrating on the ongoing housing crash. 'Peter Schiff is laughing at me. Ive just asked him to entertain the following notion: that we dodged a bullet during Augusts financial-market turmoil and, with the stock market bouncing right back from every dip, things might be okay. So why worry? He stops laughing. Why worry? he asks. Because we dodged a bullet but are about to step on a hand grenade. '

Posted by lierbag @ 11:20 AM 10 Comments

The builders are getting worried

Times: Bovis forecasts fall in house prices

Bovis said that it expected the average sales price for one of its own homes this year to be down 3% from 2006. That would mean a real price fall of 5,511, which would mark a dramatic reversal for Bovis and the market.

Posted by little professor @ 10:00 AM 6 Comments

London prices down in October

PropertyNews: House prices up 0.3 per cent in October

Chesterton publishes an average of all indexes: "London saw prices fall slightly. Prices were down by 0.1 per cent in the capital during October"

Posted by confused76 @ 09:40 AM 3 Comments

Nigel, st@ff yourself!

Firstrung: Paragon reveals 25% of workfoce may be let go

YEEESSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!! Paragon go away!!!

Posted by confused76 @ 09:31 AM 20 Comments

Bundchen misquoted? Supermodel Gisele Not in Buffett's Bear Camp on Dollar After All, Manager Tells CNBC

It turns out that supermodel Gisele Bundchen isn't siding with Warren Buffett as a U.S. dollar bear after all, her manager tells CNBC. This morning a Bloomberg story got picked up by several news outlets, including Warren Buffett Watch, reporting that Bundchen had asking to be paid in euros rather than dollars due to uncertainty about the U.S. currency's future. That would have put her in the same camp as Buffett, who's been bearish on the dollar for awhile now. But just a few minutes ago, CNBC Squawk Box producer Stephanie Landsman spoke by telephone with Anne Nelson, Bundchen's manager. Nelson tells us reports that Gisele wants to be paid in euros are "false

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:09 AM 3 Comments

I said to the chancellor: 'This is not something which a central bank can do ... they don't normally finance takeovers by one company for another, let along to the tune of 30bn, which is rather a large amount of money'

BBC "News": Darling 'blocked' Rock rescue bid

Well, Corporal Jones jokes aside, and the culpability for the Bank of England's past failings aside, Mervyn King does actually come out of this rather well. He's at least finally recognised that you can't have "light touch" financial regulation but then rush in to aid banks that have miscalculated the downside risks of their business model. Still think that with the Chancellor's help, he should show Applegarth the door though ...

Posted by paul @ 09:05 AM 3 Comments

Subprime - $250 billion losses to come

Telegraph: Plunging markets fear a meltdown

"The Fed is hemmed in. This is the price America must now pay for mortgaging the nation." Enough said.

Posted by darren @ 08:24 AM 6 Comments

Down she goes.....

Irish Independent: Irish House price Crash

Irish property crash well underway. Irish estate agents calling for government intervention to shore up the industry.....Its about 9 months-1 year ahead of the UK. But Irish house prices will drop much much further....

Posted by european-bear @ 06:38 AM 4 Comments

"buy-to-let is a force for stability in housing and 2008 may prove a year of opportunity for landlords as they respond to this additional demand"

Mail & Nigel Terrington: Migrant boost for buy-to-let

Nice try, Nigel! I would be very surprise if Paragon lasts until Xmas. And thank you for reminding us that btl growth is a precursor of house price crash "As readers with fairly long memories will recall, that coincided with the last major collapse in the housing market: the average home fell in value by 13% between autumn 1989 and early 1993, only regaining pre-crash levels in 1998." See you folks in 2018!

Posted by confused76 @ 12:45 AM 5 Comments

Monday, November 5, 2007

Credit Card Reality Check to hit UK Spending Binge

Times: Credit card users hurt by squeeze

Apparently nearly half of all shoppers seeking new credit cards are currently being refused, the number of applications refused by card providers has risen 17 per cent to an estimated 3.27 million in the past six months as credit companies take a reality check and become a bit picky about who they lend to.

Posted by enuii @ 11:17 PM 2 Comments

Top 10 Banks to issue CDO's

New York Times: Bankers Lesson From Mortgage Mess: Sell, Dont Hold

"Bankers on Wall Street frequently describe themselves as being in the moving and not the storage business. They make money by trading stocks and bonds, not by owning them. In the last week, top executives at two of the worlds largest banks, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, have come under scrutiny for ignoring that fundamental principle". See table for who else is sweating!

Posted by alan @ 10:39 PM 1 Comments

Surely if an Estate Agent says this it's CRASH TIME! :)

Scotsman: Prospect of a house price crash branded 'ridiculous'

THE prospect of a house price crash in Scotland has been dismissed as "completely ridiculous" by a leading estate agent.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 07:41 PM 11 Comments

What is going on? Boom / Crash / No Movement

BBC: House prices to 'cool not fall'

Boom? Crash? Overvalued? Undervalued? WHAT'S GOING ON?????????

Posted by david20040_0 @ 06:22 PM 25 Comments

Taking an Advantage...

Times Online: How to play the currency markets

With the pound at its highest level against the dollar for a generation, now is the perfect time to bet on foreign exchange.

Posted by peter @ 05:31 PM 0 Comments

Wallet Squeez

Times Online: Debt forecast to rise as shoppers head for a credit card Christmas

An increasing number of shoppers will pay for Christmas on their credit cards, as the number of people struggling to meet their everyday expenses continues to soar.

Posted by peter @ 05:04 PM 0 Comments

Not this year...

Times Online: A rate cut must come but in troubled times it wont be this side of Christmas

"More than a month on from the unravelling of Northern Rock, and with money markets no longer in a state of permanent seizure, it ought to be easier for the MPC to make its decision on interest rates at its two-day meeting this week.....(...)but the deflationary international climate has passed and it is not as easy to cut rates as it was a few years back.

Posted by peter @ 03:58 PM 0 Comments

This is gonna hurt!

BBC: 'Sharp rise' in credit card fees

"It seems as if the credit crunch is beginning to cause credit card chaos" said Esther James, credit card analyst at Moneyfacts. "One hundred and twenty five fee and rate increases inside two months is quite staggering."

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 03:53 PM 5 Comments

THE prospect of a house price crash in Scotland has been dismissed as "completely ridiculous" by a leading estate agent.

The Scotsman: Prospect of a house price crash branded 'ridiculous' a leading estate agent? Oh well, it must be true then! "Nothing could be further from the truth. The conditions which led to a slowdown of the Scottish market in the 1990s simply do not exist today." ...spokesman for the Bank of Scotland said: "Scotland has never had this boom/bust cycle that you have seen elsewhere. So they're contradicting each other in the same article!

Posted by disillusioned @ 03:49 PM 0 Comments

They claim that the poll is on an unbiased website! Hahahahahaha!

Landlord Expert: House price poll reveals a confident market

Just look at the web-design of LL Expert and HousePriceDebate - It's very similar. Plus - big advert for LL Expert on all pages! Then, for another laugh, look at the second post on the thread, by an (apparently unbiased) administrator: "I think house prices will continue to out-price and out-pace first time buyers. Growth will likely reach 7% this year will that reducing to 5% year on year for the next 3 years." - but his stance is labelled as neutral. HMMMMMM.

Posted by disillusioned @ 03:44 PM 1 Comments

Another day, another reports findings....

BBC News: House prices to 'cool not fall'

A new economic forecast says there is a one-in-three chance of UK houses prices being lower in real terms in 2010 than they are now.

Posted by baffled ftb @ 03:43 PM 0 Comments

More signs of the flight from the dollar.

BBC News: Supermodel 'rejects dollar pay'

The world's richest model has reportedly reacted in her own way to the sliding value of the US dollar - by refusing to be paid in the currency. Gisele Bndchen is said to be keen to avoid the US currency because of uncertainty over its strength. Last month, billionaire investor Warren Buffett said that he was not confident about the strength of the dollar. And last week, Jim Rogers, a former investor partner of George Soros, said that he was selling his home and all his possessions to buy Chinese currency, the yuan.

Posted by little professor @ 01:17 PM 5 Comments

Long Way Down

BBC: Long Way Down

After watching this excellent programme last night, I walked to the tube this morning thinking (and LOL) this site's owner(s) should embrace the title track to reflect this sites collective wish.

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:26 PM 5 Comments

A crunch, or obliteration?

Firstrung: Computer says no to over 3 million credit card applications

Credit card companies are clamping down with up to 3.27 million people seeing applications for plastic turned down in the past six months, new research* from reveals...The independent financial comparison website's research shows rejections are up by 17 per cent in the last six months compared to the six months to March 2007, when around 2.7 million credit card applications were turned down.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:57 AM 1 Comments

A weekly round up of house price stats

Times Online: Home economics - the property market

Will we follow America?The economics do not look supportive of buying houses as investments currently."The storm clouds are gathering, the forecasters are slashing their house-price predictions and talk of crashes and negative equity is back"

Posted by peter @ 10:19 AM 3 Comments

Weaker property prices fuel derivatives

FT: Weaker property prices fuel derivatives

"In the UK, which has the biggest market in the world, property derivatives volumes rose above 10bn in the third quarter, double the level seen in the same period last year." - This is the result of the finance market increasing it's bet on a fall in UK property prices (although the figure doesn't distinguish between commercial and private).

Posted by rollonapril2008 @ 09:16 AM 4 Comments

The curtain has just fallen away to reveal man in a grey suit with bright red braces and an Excel spreadsheet! - These financial 'wizards' are in fact morons!

Telegraph - front page: Citigroup boss quits as sub-prime crisis grows

Prof Peter Spencer, of York University and one of the country's leading economists, said: "Citigroup is a microcosm of the whole financial system. The reason it can't work out what its losses are, is because there is no way of measuring these financial instruments."

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:52 AM 28 Comments

Cheaper to Rent - even if house prices plateau

The Market Oracle: Buy Or Rent A House in the UK - Five Scenarios of Gains or Losses's over the Next Five Years

This analysis presents five scenarios that prospective home buyers can use to evaluate whether today is a good or bad time to buy depending on the scenario's that they deem to be the most probable. The analysis is especially geared towards first time buyers seeking to buy an average priced property of 200,000.

Posted by happyrentingz @ 08:29 AM 2 Comments

is the bubble about to burst

channel4: the housing trap

Will Britain's house-price boom create a new generation unable ever to afford a home of their own? watch it tonight 8pm

Posted by seanb303 @ 07:54 AM 7 Comments


bbc: Foreclosure wave sweeps America

A wave of foreclosures and evictions is about to sweep the United States in the wake of the sub-prime mortgage lending crisis.

Posted by seanb303 @ 07:42 AM 0 Comments

Prices in Winchester fell 2% in October

The Guardian: Boom town becomes blackspot as house price growth stalls

Winchester is a city that is often regarded as one of the most desirable in Britain. But residents are facing up to an uncomfortable truth: it is the country's worst property blackspot. A blaze of autumn colour, once so vivid it inspired John Keats to write an ode, cannot obscure a 2% fall in the value of their homes in October - the latest evidence that the British property ladder is being replaced by a property snake.

Posted by timelash @ 06:41 AM 4 Comments

Heads continue to roll

BBC News: Citigroup bank chief steps down

"Given the size of the recent losses in our mortgage- backed securities business, the only honourable course for me to take as chief executive officer is to step down," Mr Prince said on Sunday.

Posted by nelson @ 04:50 AM 0 Comments

excessive financial behavior'' that led to the U.S. home-loan crisis Some BOJ Members Said Subprime Crisis Was Caused by Low Rates

Some Bank of Japan board members said the U.S. subprime mortgage collapse was caused by keeping interest rates too low for too long, September policy meeting minutes show.

Posted by chris @ 12:55 AM 2 Comments

Sunday, November 4, 2007

The government will take measures to prevent asset bubbles and avoid huge fluctuations in the stock market, Premier Wen Jiabao told reporters on Saturday. Govt to watch stock market closely

Preventing asset bubbles is like preventing inflation and it is the government's responsibility to ensure a fair, healthy and transparent stock market, Wen said in Uzbekistan where he was attending the Sixth Meeting of Prime Ministers of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Posted by chris @ 11:50 PM 1 Comments

We ought to start thinking out of the box...

Times: Looking up

"If our buildings are taller, our green spaces will be safer". Well-made blocks are staples in beautiful cities like Paris, Berlin, Rome and Madrid. The quality of high rise buildings can be that of 5-star hotels like in NYC. With much higher population densities these cities have very efficient services and infrastructure (at a fraction of the fare we pay in London). Why cannot this work here too? Why are our architects so behind times? Our planners? Our state capitalists? Our "strategic outsourcers" of public services to private sharks? The money squanderers of the PPPs and PPIs (see the Jarvis and Metronet great examples)?

Posted by confused76 @ 05:32 PM 12 Comments

Buy to Let will exit if yields are low

The Week: How wobbly are house prices?

An article from The Week magazine that is worth a read

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 01:46 PM 9 Comments

As if!!! 100,00 Turks vs 3,000 PKK

CBS 11: Kurds Vow To Teach Turkey 'Unforgettable Lesson'

Like everything these days, the sums simply don't add up. Unless you own an oil company. It's funny how history repeats itself.

Posted by stevie dee @ 12:52 PM 4 Comments

Revoke on $13 Billion. I say "that's good of you!"

The New York Times: Iraq, With U.S. Support, Voids a Russian Oil Contract

Guided by American legal advisers, the Iraqi government has canceled a controversial development contract with the Russian company Lukoil..... In response, Russian authorities have threatened to revoke a 2004 deal under the Paris Club of creditor nations to forgive $13 billion in Iraqi debt, a senior Iraqi official said The field, West Qurna, has estimated reserves of 11 billion barrels, the equivalent of the worldwide proven oil reserves of Exxon Mobil, Americas largest oil company.

Posted by stevie dee @ 12:46 PM 1 Comments

What the politicians should be saying.

The Sunday Business Post Online (Ireland): A sudden snapshot of reality

The article says it : 'The pinnacle of our economic development cannot be to condemn a generation of workers to paying 15 times their annual salary for a shoebox in the commuter belt. This is a sign of economic failure, not economic success, and the sooner it unravels the better.'

Posted by frustratedftb @ 12:20 PM 2 Comments

Landlords crying on the phone on the phone to me regularly ...

The Times: A survivors guide to buy to let

"Harry Dhaliwal at Belvoir Lettings in Manchester said: I have landlords crying on the phone to me regularly. They are being forced to sell but because so many developments are still being built, they are struggling to find buyers. "
There si some great advice here like; Go interest only; re-mortgage your main home... and best of all
"Advisers recommend that investors who do not need to sell should sit out any property slow-down, especially as there could be a silver lining: rental demand is expected to go up as first-time buyers who are priced out of the market opt to rent instead."
Don't you just love BTL speculators. Fear and Greed is what is driving BTL.

Posted by voiceofreason @ 09:31 AM 26 Comments

State Investment Manager Warning of Sharemarket Meltdown

The Age Newspaper; Melbourne, Australia: Crash Is Coming Warns Top Investor

A story from the Australian 'Age' newspaper today (Sunday). Leo De Bever is the Chief Investment Officer for the state of Victoria (capital city: Melbourne). 'THE man responsible for investing $41 billion of the State's money has warned mum-and-dad investors to prepare for a massive sharemarket crash. He says a dramatic downturn is inevitable as the rapid rate of investment is unsustainable, and the repercussions of the $300 billion subprime lending crisis in the US are yet to be felt fully.'

Posted by lierbag @ 08:19 AM 0 Comments

How much did GS know about the future the market trends?

BBC News: A new PR man for the US economy

Or was it just a lucky guess? What is that expression again.... Familiarity breeds...... But for whom?

Posted by stevie dee @ 07:46 AM 0 Comments

Goldman Sachs the new Gold Standard?

BBC News: Goldman Sachs' bets lift profits

I was thinking of Goldman last night (strange but true), what with all these names flying about in the financial press (But no real mention of GS). I found this article from the 20th September 2007, whilst researxhing this morning. The other interesting thing as I recall about Goldman, was it wasn't to long ago (April 2005) that Goldman predicted an oil spike. As you can see in the article, GS sold off wind energy company Horizon. So forget about renewables for the time being then, what about Gold? Goldman Sachs = Gold Standard Well at least some financial guys have got their heads screwed on.

Posted by stevie dee @ 07:31 AM 6 Comments

Is not the credit crunch a major economic shock?

This is money: Is there going to be a house price crash?

A long article that concludes that providing there is not a major economic shock then house prices will continue to rise 2-3% per year. Is not the run on the Northern Rock (requiring a 23billion bail out) and the Credit Crunch not a major economic shock?

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 07:30 AM 2 Comments

Survivors of the last crash dispense advice

The Observer: Act now to avoid misery of housing market slump

The number of people having their homes repossessed by their mortgage lender is set to double next year to 45,000, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), while economics researchers Capital Economics are predicting that house prices could fall by as much as 6 per cent in some areas of the UK during 2008. If these predictions come true it would be the first time UK repossessions have risen and house prices fallen so significantly since the early 1990s. The threat of an economic downturn on this scale has sent shivers down the spines of nervous UK homeowners who have pushed themselves to their financial limit in the last few years, as well as prompting memories from those who were there last time around.

Posted by not amewsed @ 07:30 AM 1 Comments

Banks accused of using surveyors who inflate house prices

FT: First American in mortgage fraud probe

First American has been accused by the New York Attorney General of using surveyors to give inflated valuations thus allowing it to lend more.

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 07:17 AM 5 Comments

$90 Oil is just 13.4c/cup

CNBC: Crude Realities

As we enter another week of the Oil Bull market, where are things going? You can't buy coffee for 13.4c/cup, there is little else we sell of any value at that price, so why not $300/barrel? Well, that is the argument put forward by Matt Symonds, the International Chairman of Symond & Company. "Oil is still rediculously underpriced". Matt see's no ceiling to prices in the future and neither do I. $125/barrel by X-mas & 6% interest rates? 6.25% interest rates by Valentines day?

Posted by planning4acrash @ 03:49 AM 0 Comments

We will soon know anyhow

Independent: A downturn is inevitable. Next year would be tough, but postponing it until 2010 would be even tougher

Oil prices, the credit crunch and the housing market all point one way, but any attempt to prolong the boom will make the crash far worse

Posted by confused76 @ 01:18 AM 3 Comments

The most bearish piece appeared in the Times ( date)

Times: The harder they fall

"Many frustrated top-end sellers are slashing prices as they struggle to cash in their paper profits"

Posted by confused76 @ 12:19 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, November 3, 2007

Growing debate on immigration... not sure where we are heading...

Herald: Honest broker needed to quell immigration fears

"The only way to resolve this is for the government to start being honest, and return to policies that boost social capital: more houses, council and private; an end to tax breaks for buy-to-let; stronger unions; better education of immigrants; an end to casualised work. In the past decade, the wealthy have done well out of cheap plumbers, nannies and high house prices. It's time they put something back."

Posted by confused76 @ 11:13 PM 0 Comments

All that glitters is not Gold-man!

Asia Times: Level 3 storm about to hit Wall Street

There's a mystery on Wall Street. Merrill Lynch wrote off $8.4 billion in its subprime mortgage business, a figure revised up from $4.9 billion, yet Goldman Sachs reported an excellent quarter and didn't feel the need for any write-offs. The real secret of the difference is likely to be in the details of their accounting, and in particular in the murky world, shortly to be revealed, of their "Level 3 Asset Portfolios"

Posted by alan @ 10:51 PM 4 Comments

Banks Afraid of New Builds Avoid this property peril!!

Banks know that new build properties can depreciate rapidly. So they are limiting their exposure to that type of loan. Ties in with the current theme of credit being hard to come by - an extra pressure towards price reductions on property.

Posted by stillsinking @ 07:53 PM 0 Comments

US analyst gets death threats

timesonline: us analyst gets death threats

what can you say really...its long been my feeling that we have become a world of vested interest tells the truth in case it upsets someone

Posted by taffee @ 03:32 PM 4 Comments

Meet the Fokker

Tgraph: Buy-to-let: Meet the man with the 5 million mortgage

"Keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, and there is still money to be made, says Ross Clark" yes but "His monthly repayments are 30,000. His only consolation is that the monthly rental income on his 38 properties currently comes to a little more than this: about 37,000" ...and... "the fixed rates are staggered to expire at different times, in 2008, 2009 and 2010." Aha hhahhaa hahh ahh uaahhhahh ahhahahh

Posted by confused76 @ 11:45 AM 14 Comments

More Brainwashing of the Masses, The Sun Says Migrants = 'affordable home loans'

Sun: Get a grip, Prime Minister

According to the Political Editor of the Sun, 'HALF of Brits believe immigration is GOOD for the country', 'foreigners work HARDER than British citizens' and wait for it 'They have kept the lid on inflation for years by keeping wages low meaning affordable home loans for millions'.

Doh, affordable home loans i.e. low interest rates has little to do with migrants and does not mean affordable homes.

Posted by enuii @ 10:53 AM 6 Comments

Is Barclays, RBS or A&L now in trouble ?

Guardian: City fears second bank is heading for credit crisis

The City was swept by rumours yesterday that another British bank was in trouble after Northern Rock indicated it was not the only bank borrowing from the Bank of England's rescue fund. Barclays was yesterday the subject of intense speculation in the City after its share price sank by 6% as investors worried about its financial stability. Other banks, including Royal Bank of Scotland and Alliance & Leicester, also suffered large falls in their share prices as the City share dealers scouted around for the most likely candidates.

Posted by uncle chris @ 10:41 AM 8 Comments

Good for them ....

Times: National Trust to block green belt desecration for new homes

The National Trust is to put itself on a collision course with the Government over Gordon Browns plans to start the biggest house-building programme in 30 years. The trust is exasperated because ministers and senior civil servants appear ready to develop green fields without considering the quality of life offered to local communities by the presence of open spaces. As one of Britains largest landowners with 700 miles of coastline and 250,000 hectares of countryside, the trust has threatened to buy up greenfield land earmarked for development to stop new housing. It is also preparing to intervene in planning inquiries and challenge new developments, even if it has no direct involvement with the land under threat.

Posted by uncle chris @ 09:49 AM 29 Comments

cracks appear as bankruptcies rise

times online: cracks appear as bankruptcies rise

but don't worry...according to the VIs...there is a shortgage of supply as no-one needs to sell their house!!!! One thing is for certain though and that is that someone is lying.

Posted by taffee @ 08:04 AM 5 Comments

BTL is now a long term investment; who'd have thunk it

Firstrung: What is buy to let? - ARLA publish guide exploding some myths

ARLA have published a guide on buy to let, here's a snippet that caught the Firstrung teams' eye, given that most buy to let investors do not and cannot make this business model work;"Buy to Let is a medium to long-term investment, typically 15-20 years, and it is an investment that takes account of both capital appreciation and rental income." For every 100K borrowed (at on average 7% on an interest only buy to let mortgage) the buy to let landlord needs to re-coup 700 per month in rent, not allowing for repairs renewals and voids, to simply break even. This is for the most part an impossible goal. Firstrung stands by its statement in 2006, that buy to let broke as a business model when individual BTL rates reached 5%.

Posted by converted lurker @ 05:02 AM 1 Comments

Friday, November 2, 2007

Hmmmm - this can't be good ....

Telegraph: Citigroup calls emergency board meeting

Fears of more turmoil hitting world stock markets have grown after it emerged that Citigroup, the world's biggest bank, has called an emergency board meeting for this weekend amid concerns of escalating bad debts at the financial services giant. Citi's shares have already slumped 25pc over the past three weeks after the bank unveiled a $5.9bn (2.8 billion) write down, which is a reduction in the value of an asset because it is overvalued compared to the market.

Posted by uncle chris @ 10:21 PM 8 Comments

Typical Friday Story for the Weekend

Guardian: UK banks hit by credit fears

The City was swept by rumours today that another British bank was in trouble after Northern Rock indicated it was not the only bank borrowing from the Bank of England's rescue fund.

Posted by enuii @ 07:50 PM 23 Comments

Property Prices Down in October

Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents: Eiendomsmeglerbransjens Boligprisstatiskk Oktober 2007

(Main Article in Norwegian) Property prices came down 1.2% from September to October 2007 (down 0.6% allowing for seasonal adjustment). This represents the second consecutive monthly fall in Norwegian House Prices. House prices are now 5.4% higher than in October 2006. The average price of a property in Norway is now 25,000 NOK (~2500 per square meter).

Posted by anthony @ 06:02 PM 0 Comments

Theres something wrong in the city (from Channel 4 snowmail)

Channel 4 news (snowmail): SOMETHING AFOOT IN THE CITY

I Just got this in my mail: "SOMETHING AFOOT IN THE CITY There's something going on in the City. It's hard to divine precisely what it is, but it seems to centre on the banks' need for more liquidity. We know the Bank of England, despite its 23bn largesse with Northern Rock (so far), is reluctant to keep pumping more cash into the system. We also know that there was a meeting of senior bankers at the Bank of England yesterday. All my usual sources have gone to ground today, which is another surefire suggestion that something is afoot. The tangible facts relate to Barclays' loss, at one point, of 8 per cent on the stock market, and reports that the Citigroup has got capital problems.. "

Posted by pagaman @ 05:31 PM 0 Comments

I guess i would have thought this had already occurred... Probe Talk Pounds Merrill

Somewhat naively i would have thought this to have already occurred across these banks, UK banks and others. Obviously, given that the auditor in the past obviously accepted the "wizards" models (maybe correctly). I am not sure what the SEC is doing unless it has its own "wizards". Maybe we have arrived at the point where they can just ask for a simple justification of why something is valued at more than zero and work up?

Posted by whiteknight @ 04:18 PM 0 Comments

Second bout of credit correction looms

Financial News: Second bout of credit correction looms

"Concerns over a second phase in the credit correction that started in August intensified today as European equity markets opened down following the worst trading day since August 9 in the US yesterday." Another credit correction will lead to banks charging even more to lend each other money and the subsequent 'risk premium' will flow through to consumers in terms of higher interest rates on mortgages.

Posted by rollonapril2008 @ 02:57 PM 2 Comments

Mortgage Industry job losses mounting up

Firstrung: Credit crunch after shocks claim second wave of redundancies

It's been a sad week for the mortgage industry as three major companies have announced drastic cuts to their work force. Firstly mortgages plc, then Kensington and now edues. It must be noted that these are the high profile job losses, the length and breadth of the UK smaller organisations are making job cuts and the prospect of job creation in the industry has not looked so grim for some time. edeus has announced it will be making 15 per cent of its workforce redundant in the weeks ahead. The company has lower growth ratespencilled in for 2008.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:29 PM 6 Comments

FTBs paying twenty grand more than this time last year...

Firstrung: First time buyers now pay on average 167,070 which is an annual increase of 11.9%

The average house price in the UK in August 2007 for first time buyers now stands at 167,070 which is an annual increase of 11.9%. The Bank of England financial stability report said that recent first-time buyers are vulnerable as many have stretched themselves more than normal to get on the housing ladder because of the increase in house prices relative to income and the sharp increase in the proportion of new mortgages with high loan to income multiples.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:26 PM 1 Comments

Credit Crunch 2.0

BBC News: World markets hit by credit woes

When I first saw this I thought it was an article from a few weeks ago. I was amused to see that the interest rate change hasn't made a whole lot of impact on the markets: "While stocks in the US had risen on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve opted to cut rates to 4.5% from 4.75%, by Thursday fears about the credit crisis and the wider economy dominated markets." So they bought all of about 24 hours then.

Posted by night @ 12:20 PM 1 Comments

Belt Up people, its time to ride the waves.

Telegraph: Slowdown 'faster than MPC wants'

Its taken some time but here we have it, UK is on a downward spirall. It also looks like equities have given up on this false bull. bring on the bear!!!!

Posted by lee @ 11:52 AM 7 Comments

How much ?? My head hurts - why should I pay ?

BBC: Rock expects 30bn loan this year

That is roughly 730 for every UK taxpayer and marks a rise of 2.2bn from the week ended 31 October. "The Treasury has also indemnified a further 20bn odd of retail deposits," he explained. "So we are talking about total public-sector exposure to the Rock of 40bn - equivalent to around 3% of our entire economy. "And that exposure could become much bigger, as other loans to the Rock fall due for repayment. "

Posted by darren @ 11:44 AM 0 Comments

Boom? Crash? Slump?

Times Online: A guide to the housing market forecasts

It has been a week of conflicting housing market reports. Take a look at this house market guide for all confused.

Posted by peter @ 11:23 AM 2 Comments

The credit crunch returns with a vengeance

MoneyWeek: The credit crunch returns with a vengeance

Remember the credit crunch? I only ask, because for a moment there, it seemed like everyone had forgotten about it. Stocks were soaring, and investors were even getting excited about the financial sector again, in the vain belief that investment banks had kitchen sinked their results - getting all the bad news out in the open. But Merrill Lynchs results last week rattled Wall Street, with the bank announcing a $7.9bn write-down for the third quarter, far larger than expected. And now that fear has turned into full-blown panic as the Street has realised that maybe the other banks are still storing up little nasties for this quarter

Posted by mary @ 11:14 AM 2 Comments

Debt calls to CAB up 20% and yet ONS figure falling?

BBC: Fresh fall in insolvency numbers

The number of people being declared insolvent fell again in the third quarter of the year. The number of individual insolvencies in England and Wales fell by 3% to 26,072 from the previous three months and were 5% down on last year. Bankruptcies fell by 2.1% to 15,833, while Individual Voluntary Arrangements (IVAs) went down by 4.3% to 10,239. The number of home repossession orders made by courts also fell by 1% in the third quarter, to 23,806.

Posted by uncle chris @ 10:55 AM 6 Comments

Such a rollercoaster...up and down they go.

BBC news: World markets hit by credit woes

"World markets have fallen back on renewed fears about the full impact of the sub-prime crisis on the US economy, echoing heavy falls on Wall Street."

Posted by nelson @ 10:21 AM 0 Comments

Hometrack predicts prices to rise by 1% in 2008

Telegraph: Lack of supply will rescue house prices

Jittery house prices will be rescued by the lack of supply on the market next year, and should rise by an average of 1pc, according to the property website Hometrack. Hometrack does not anticipate widespread house price falls, as there is little evidence of any major increase in the number of homes coming to the market for sale.

Posted by little professor @ 12:26 AM 30 Comments

Thursday, November 1, 2007

BTL is ripe for a crash

Times: The property market: a bleak future?

"Demand from owner-occupiers has fallen. There are 10,000 flats due for construction in Leeds. I cant see them getting built now. He tells of one landlord forced to reduce a monthly rental from 1,200 to 800, and points out that the bigger the scheme, the more landlords (and therefore investors) will be squeezed."

Posted by confused76 @ 10:26 PM 5 Comments

US Foreclosures

Bloomberg: U.S. Home Foreclosures Doubled in the Third Quarter

"U.S. home foreclosures doubled in the third quarter from a year earlier as subprime borrowers failed to make higher payments on adjustable-rate mortgages", RealtyTrac Inc. said. UK foreclosures for the 3rd Quarter are due any day.

Posted by alan @ 09:21 PM 1 Comments

Work Out The Falls

This Is Money: House Price Crash Calculator

This Is Money have added a "House Price Crash Calculator" to their list of other calculators. If you want to know what your house would be worth if prices fall to 1992 levels (or any other year), this will tell you.

Posted by garyb @ 09:20 PM 1 Comments

I could not resist posting...

Times: Rosie and Pip on the couch

At least it confirms that money (alone) does not give happiness :)

Posted by confused76 @ 08:27 PM 2 Comments

Buuble bursting in NI?

Guardian Online: Belfast: crazy, crazy increases

Prices are falling back in NI after 'crazy, crazy increases' but where will they stop?

Posted by frustratedftb @ 06:25 PM 2 Comments

More sub prime loans

BBC: Bank 'loans Northern Rock 23bn'

That is roughly 730 for every UK taxpayer, and marks a rise of 2.2bn from the week ended 31 October

Posted by holding out @ 04:53 PM 38 Comments

Finally a good news!

Mail: Credit crisis 'could cripple UK economy'

"If households have to save more and borrow less, this could see less spending in the shops and a slower economy. The housing market could be particularly vulnerable as the supply of cheap mortgages reduces and banks become stricter with their lending." I do not have a problem with it.

Posted by confused76 @ 03:54 PM 4 Comments

Housing market heading for slow down

Mortgage Lender BM Solutions: Housing market heading for slow down

Mortgage brokers are struggling to maintain their income as the housing market starts to slow down. 80% of mortgage brokers are looking for ways to make more money as their primary source of income is under threat.

Posted by andysuth @ 03:44 PM 1 Comments

Cost of living / property / consumables needs to be put into perspective.

BBC News: Why are plumbers always in demand?

From article dated: 17 August 2007.

"In 50 years we won't get robots doing the plumbing so what we find is if we looked at the economy 50 years ago, something like plumbing wouldn't have really stood out. People didn't really have much money. "But now you can buy amazing televisions and cars that are cheaper and better than 20 years ago. "All this amazing stuff and yet plumbing has not really changed and so it looms large as a problem, as something expensive."

So I have a problem, why is the apparent cost of house building so expensive? Even when I allow for excess profits, which is hard to prove anyway, I still get a high cost for the building work. Must have made a mistake ?

Posted by fahrenheit451 @ 03:20 PM 8 Comments

This news blog is getting too crowded!

HPC News Blog: Let's cut out the dross

Guys, we have a glut of bearish news at the moment, so it's natural that the news blog is getting much busier. But there are so many articles being posted, many of them of limited value, that it is difficult to get any serious discussion going before it disappears off the front page. Drewster suggested we stick to posting high quality news stories (Reuters, BBC) and analysis (FT, Bloomberg, Fool) and make an effort to stop posting regional news stories, VI news sites, rehashed Firstrung stories, links to propertysnake examples, and articles with limited relevance to house prices e.g. about oil prices, war in Iran etc. Those stories can be left for the forums. This will probably get deleted soon, but I hope enough of you read it to make a difference. Cheers!

Posted by little professor @ 03:20 PM 26 Comments

Invest in gold now.. or wait?

MoneyWeek: Is gold set for a correction?

Gold - along with oil - has been testing record levels in recent days - and the Fed's decision to cut interest rates just gave it an extra boost. But is now the best time to buy into the yellow metal - or should you wait for a dip?

Posted by sha @ 02:46 PM 1 Comments

Yep i know its the US but....

Market Oracle: The Growth Recession and Early Stages of a Housing Depression

Unlike the UK the US has considered it an important enough segment of society to track house prices in some detail. Although an interesting article of itself the thing that really struck me was Chart 4. In real terms since 1890 [yes 1890] and until the late [19]90's prices have remained constant in real terms - excepting the odd blip. [sorry for referring to the depression as an odd blip - but if you look at the chart you will see what i mean]. In any case since the late 1990s the real price of housing has doubled! So its remained the same for 100 years and then doubled in 10!?!?!?! strikes me that that might just be classified as a bubble! If only we could go back to 1776!!! ;-). The chart is to 2Q07.

Posted by techieman @ 02:09 PM 1 Comments

Killing each other for petrol

Wall Street Journal: Fuel Shortages, Unrest Spur Beijing to Act; Market Turning Point?

One of the biggest forces behind the near-quadrupling of oil prices this decade has been voracious fuel demand in China and other developing nations. But with crude closing in on $100 a barrel, shortages and price spikes are sparking economic and social tensions from Beijing to Tehran. That stress could signal a turning point in the long-running energy boom. Yesterday, China announced an almost 10% increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices, in a dramatic move to tamp down demand. China's price move, reducing its need for subsidies to oil firms, was seen by analysts as an attempt by authorities to cope with an energy market run amok. Supply shortfalls have been triggered by the country's combination of subsidized energy prices and breakneck economic growth, which has led to demand.

Posted by lvmreader @ 02:02 PM 2 Comments

But, but, but it was all a storm in a teacup! Citi executives sacked over credit turmoil

Two weeks ago, Citi said that it had lost $1.6bn on mortgage and loan-backed securities as a result of the credit market turmoil during the third quarter. But Merrill Lynchs disclosure last week that it had suffered writedowns of $7.9bn on its similar holdings has raised fears that Citis losses have mounted significantly. Merrill ousted Stan ONeal as chairman and chief executive after revealing the losses that it suffered were almost double the figure it had estimated less than three weeks earlier. Citi was second only to Merrill last year as an underwriter of CDOs, structured investments created from bundles of mortgages. As demand for the securities dried up over the summer, the banks have been left with large inventories, which have fallen sharply in value.

Posted by lvmreader @ 01:45 PM 0 Comments

Website for Rosie???

Rosie Millard: Website for Rosie???

His this one been pointed out before? Not seen it. It's a scream.

Posted by lurker @ 01:01 PM 1 Comments

Still booming, 25k in one year

Lancashire Evening Post: House prices continue to rise

House prices in Lancashire have risen substantially in the last year with prices yet to be affected by the property slump in London. West Lancashire and Wyre are the fastest-growing property hotspots of Lancashire, according to new figures. The average house price has soared by more than 25,000 in the last year

Posted by david20040_0 @ 12:42 PM 13 Comments

House price crash ....... in the Republic

RTE: House prices down 3.6% this year

New figures show that house prices fell again last month and are down 3.6% since the start of this year.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 12:38 PM 4 Comments

Sour grapes and a sprinkle of opinion dressed as fact - the BBC's usual standards are maintained

BBC "News": House price falls 'don't matter'

Andrew Verity has shown the BBC's true colours on plummeting house prices. Apparently, they "don't matter" now. This presumably, explains why the BBC stopped commenting on Land Registry data showing falls last year.The best piece of opinion-editorial in the article? "Even if the government succeeds against the odds in hitting its target, that in itself would not be sufficient to bring prices down over time to an affordable level."

In other words, cheap credit has nothing to do with the house price boom! Laughably flawed thinking, given the coincidental

Careful BBC, your pro-housing boom bias is showing again!

Posted by paul @ 12:20 PM 17 Comments

House Prices fall for 7th Month in a row

Irish Times: House Prices fall for 7th Month in a row

"House prices, which more than quadrupled after a decade of economic boom from the mid 1990s, started falling in March for the first time in five years. "

Posted by damo @ 12:18 PM 1 Comments

Rate changes happen more in November - up or down

Firstrung: November the most popular month for the MPC to make interest rate change

Legal & General has revealed that more base interest rate changes have happened in November than in any other month. During the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC's) ten year reign over interest rates, November is the month where the largest proportion of rate changes have taken place. While this is likely to be a result of the fast-approaching year end it points to the fact that the much speculated November rate cut could well be on the horizon.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:02 AM 9 Comments

Hoemtrack are usually 'on the money'

Firstrung: House prices to rise by 1% in 2008 whilst transactions will fall by a fifth, says Hometrack

Hometrack is forecasting weaker market sentiment in 2008. Stretched affordability and dramatic changes in the lending sector will result in a pronounced slowdown in the rate of house price inflation and mortgage lending over 2008...Hometrack acknowledge there is risk in both the housing and mortgage sectors, however, they expect these to remain contained with limited adverse implications for the broader housing and mortgage markets.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:00 AM 6 Comments

Emirates get an early whiff of a Western bugbear - energy shortage

Times Online: Inflation is going to get another push ...

"The Emirates have an energy problem." Well, this is old news really and was always expected. See also: BP offers Abu Dhabi green solution to chronic gas shortages Add to this (i) the falling dollar, with (ii) interest rate cuts, and (iii) the suggestion that the Petro-Dollar may separate from the USA dollar, and everything gets more interesting.

Posted by fahrenheit451 @ 10:59 AM 0 Comments

More pressure on sterling

Times Online: Fed rate cut pushes oil above $96 a barrel

"Oil climbed above $96 a barrel today following the US Federal Reserve's quarter point rate cut to 4.5 per cent last night, which sent the dollar to 26-year lows against the pound. Gold hit a 28-year peak of close to $800 an ounce."

Posted by peter @ 09:27 AM 0 Comments

CRIKEY! (Didn't the economics guru David Smith say oil was going to drop back to $40 a barrel?)

Bloomberg: Oil Traders Increase Bets on $125 Crude as Options Trades Jump

Oil traders increased bets that December futures will reach $125 a barrel because of possible disruptions to Middle East supplies and rising demand. Traders held call options to buy 2,526 contracts, each representing the right to buy 1,000 barrels, of December oil at $125 in New York as of Oct. 29, from 1 lot on June 29, New York Mercantile Exchange data show. Bets on $100 oil are also surging: Traders held options to buy 49.7 million barrels of December oil at that price on Oct. 30, up from 30 million barrels on Jan. 2.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:02 AM 9 Comments

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