Friday, November 23, 2007

Reposting this brilliant piece (with working link)

Housing slump fears rise as new mortgages fall

it s the HIPs fault... sure. "The rate of UK mortgages approvals fell by 16 per cent in October as the Government's controversial Home Information Packs discouraged sellers from putting their homes up for sale and higher interest rates put off buyers taking out home loans" "The total value of mortgages approved fell from £18.5 billion in September to £15.1 billion in October and 25 per cent below the same month last year" WOOOOOOW! DEAD LIKE A DEAD DUCK

Posted by confused76 @ 01:50 PM (1307 views)
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10 thoughts on “Reposting this brilliant piece (with working link)

  • So let me see, a 500 quid report on a £200k house is going to prevent me putting my house on the market. About time this canard was nailed permanently, I’m amazed that even the half-witted journos they get on The Times nowadays put their name to this sort of twaddle.

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  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    I am starting to believe that this is a massive and fatal heart attack.

    The sheer size of decreases in mortgage lending, decrease in product ranges, withdrawal of adverse ranges and the rest.

    It may be that the market will virtually cease by early 2008.

    I seem to remember in the 80s/90s my parents put their place up for sale when everything was hyper and it literally stopped dead at that very moment. We never sold the house. We also didn’t really seem to care about the value of it. It was just a notional figure that had no impact on our lives.

    How times have changed 🙂

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  • ‘I’m amazed that even the half-witted journos they get on The Times nowadays put their name to this sort of twaddle.’
    one of them was saying t’other day that if prices dropped sheeple would just not sell and therefore,logically,house prices would stay where they are..so it’s no real surprise is it.

    by the way confused76,hope you’ve not retired the muhahah,because,truly,it brings joy to my life.One day there’ll be playing it in the banks as the keys are dropped through the door

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  • MUAHAHHH AHHHHH AHHAHHAH HAHAH HAHHAH HA HAAHHHAHHAHA

    Howard Archer, the chief UK and European economist at Global Insight, said: “Slowing housing demand is expected to steadily feed through to dampen house prices over the coming months. Indeed, there is undeniably a very real risk that the housing market could see a sharp correction.”

    Howard had to eat humble pie for two years after saying HPC in 2005, now it is vindication time
    MUAHAHHH AHHHHH AHHAHHAH HAHAH HAHHAH HA HAAHHHAHHAHAMUAHAHHH AHHHHH AHHAHHAH HAHAH HAHHAH HA HAAHHHAHHAHAMUAHAHHH AHHHHH AHHAHHAH HAHAH HAHHAH HA HAAHHHAHHAHAMUAHAHHH AHHHHH AHHAHHAH HAHAH HAHHAH HA HAAHHHAHHAHAMUAHAHHH AHHHHH AHHAHHAH HAHAH HAHHAH HA HAAHHHAHHAHAMUAHAHHH AHHHHH AHHAHHAH HAHAH HAHHAH HA HAAHHHAHHAHAMUAHAHHH AHHHHH AHHAHHAH HAHAH HAHHAH HA HAAHHHAHHAHAMUAHAHHH AHHHHH AHHAHHAH HAHAH HAHHAH HA HAAHHHAHHAHA

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  • I just had an email from estateangels i believe they are estate agents or morgage brokers, anyway they said in their email “The current UK property market is experiencing an uncertain future. House prices may fall, making them more affordable. But the ability to get a mortgage may decrease. This means that some people may not be able to take their first step onto the property ladder, while others may not be able to upscale and move to pastures new.”
    It seems that within a matter of weeks VI’s have gone from “no crash” to “0% house price rises” to finally actually saying “house prices may fall”.
    As for HIPS there introduction has if anything, helped to restrict supply.I am sure there influence will be insignificant once the full force of the Financial tsunami hits the UK.
    I strongly believe we will see 15 to 20% falls next year and then further smaller falls during 2009/2010,levelling of in 2011.

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  • Sold out.

    As a potential buyer I’ve spoken to an estate agent who actually admitted house prices were falling. Some EAs have been very helpful, even suggesting I could offer under the fixed price.

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  • Leave it Su. If the prices are decreasing by say £400 a week then I would leave it for another 18 months for the whole pack of cards to hit the bottom…

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  • Ihopeitgoeswithabang says:

    Well I could see how HIPS might slow the number of housing coming onto the market since the seller has to front the cost. But since there are evermore houses going onto the market that theory seems a little odd. Since the buyer is paying for the HIPS how come they are staying away?
    Simple answer being of course that HIPS has nothing to do with the state of the market whatsoever.

    But then it’s always nice to have someone or something to blame. Instead of just accepting the fact that houses are unafforadable and will in the medium to long term return to the figure which is afforable.

    EA / Economist / Journalist Dictionary:-

    “Slowing housing demand” = nobody wants to buy a property at these inflated prices
    “dampen house prices” = houses prices are going down .. oh sorry… they are losing value
    “Home Information Packs discouraged sellers from putting their homes up for sale” = scapegoat

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  • Sold out – don’t settle for 15 – 20% – my money’s on 40 – 50% before this thing’s finished.

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  • Of course the market is about to fall.

    Lets say the average mortgage nowadays is 6 times salary- thats 25K * 6 – 150K. Now lets say the funds market is very risk averse so lending criteria needs to be say 4 * salary, thats only 100K available, and with 40% of applications turned down as well, it s absolutely clear that there is around 50K being cut of the AVERAGE house price- so around £180K- £130K.

    PLUS credit is getting harder to get in general, so buyers will have to FIND the extra fees, removal costs and all the rest of the costs of buying a house. another 5K

    PLUS LTV is likely to be increased to from 90% to 80% so a deposit of 36K now instead of 18K. This also has to be found.

    This means a total drop on your 180K house will now be around 73K before the average buyer can move in- WOW £107,000 for your “average house”

    I think also that the Average house will inflate from being a two bed den made of ticky tacky in a town centre to a three bed semi- you can factor that in yourselves

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