October 2007 Archive

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

The end of the US as a superpower?

thisismoney: Pound at new highs as rate-cut hopes fade

The pound soared to a fresh 26-year high against the dollar today as currency traders bet the Bank of England will leave interest rates on hold while the US Federal Reserve will vote for a cut. The Fed, however, is expected to cut rates from 4.75% to 4.5% tomorrow. The pound rose nearly half a cent against the greenback to $2.069, its highest since May 1981.

Posted by uncle chris @ 10:35 PM 9 Comments

Top EA forecasts slowdown

Bloomberg: London Luxury-Home Price Gains May Slow to 3% in 2008

Luxury-home prices in London will increase in 2008 at less than a tenth of this year's rate, as investment bankers and hedge-fund managers get smaller bonuses, Knight Frank LLC said.

Posted by alan @ 10:00 PM 0 Comments

houses built on sand

new scientist: oil meltdown

here some s...t from our scientific comunity..

Posted by big bad wolf @ 07:35 PM 0 Comments

Its going more Pete Tong by the day

CNN: Biggest home value plunge in 16 years

This is getting boring now...............

Posted by andyh @ 06:55 PM 0 Comments

Merrill Lynch Herds head trampled

Economist.com: Merrill Lynch

Chop Chop Chop, Timber.

Posted by sithclone7 @ 06:44 PM 1 Comments

Well, they do have a point.........

AbundantHope Blog: Preparing for the upcoming US Economic Collapse

Many of the problems that sank the Soviet Union now endanger the US. For instance, like the Soviet Union in the late 1980s, it has a huge, well-equipped and very expensive military bogged down fighting Muslim freedom fighters in foreign lands. Also, energy shortfalls linked to peaking oil production and horrendously unfavourable capital account and trade balances is resulting in runaway foreign debt. Add to that a delusional self-image, an inflexible ideology, and unresponsive, totally corrupt authoritarian judicial and political systems.

Posted by lvmreader @ 05:45 PM 8 Comments

They just want somewhere to live

Yorkshire Evening Post: Needy's six month wait for a Leeds council property

Not a house price crash issue here, but this relates to people who just want to have somewhere half decent to live with their family. There are no properties to rent or buy at a reasonable price for these people. There will be a lot more in this situation in the rental or house purchase system, unless the madness stops. Hopefully it will soon or we all may have to wait for 107 weeks.

Posted by yorkshireman @ 05:45 PM 4 Comments

VI Rubbish???????

Times: Property price crisis? Excuse my yawn

Are we living in a housebound society? Such is our property obsession that a Briton's home can now be his or her pension, passion or pet cause. The classical philosophical question How should a man live? has been bulldozed and replaced by a new, smaller one: Where should we live, and how much can we make on it? No wonder the prospect of falling house prices fills many with dread.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 05:42 PM 10 Comments

This is the real problem...

Bloomberg: U.S. Economy: Confidence weakens.

Certainly it's a hobby horse of mine, but this is the stat that shows us the nature of the problem the world economy now confronts. The US consumer has fuelled global growth for 10 years, but that's it. Asian demand will not fill the gap, so expect slashed US rates, much weaker USD, collapsing stock markets (eventually) and houses, as well as any other asset such as art, through the floor as manufacturing grinds to a halt, unemployment soars and we all understand the nature of the bubble that blew. Or something. *adjusts tin foil hat, buys rice and beans and moves to Michigan*

Posted by stoatgobbler @ 05:33 PM 0 Comments

Grass up tax avoiding BTL landlords

HMRC: HM Revenue & Customs Tax Evasion Hotline

HMRC is committed to targeting tax evasion. We know some people don't pay their fair share of tax, which is unfair for the rest of us. Now you can help us do something about it. The Tax Evasion hotline deals with income tax, corporation tax, capital gains tax, inheritance tax, VAT and National Insurance.

Posted by btl-comeuppance @ 04:31 PM 0 Comments

You really should see this

CNN Business: The $915B bomb in consumers' wallets

"Americans have record credit-card debt and banks are starting to sweat an uptick in default rates, reports Fortune's Peter Gumbel. Why some fear this could be the next subprime." You just couldn't make this stuff up, everyone thinks the credit crunch is blowing over, au contraire, it has just begun folks....!!!

Posted by bingo @ 04:29 PM 15 Comments

Taxman chasing up BTL unpaid taxes

Scottish Landlord: Taxmans sneaky tactics

If you own a Buy To Let and haven't paid your CGT or income taxes beware, HMRC is now using Section 19 of the Taxes Management Act 1970 to get landlord's details from letting agencies. Another nail in the coffin for BTL.

Posted by brownfield @ 04:27 PM 0 Comments

An alternative view of the oil price rise

The Daily Mash: Oil price rise caused by pixies

"We looked at every possible scenario and were left with one unavoidable conclusion: cheeky pixies."

Posted by ticktock @ 03:38 PM 0 Comments

Number of Repossessions is Growing

Times Online: Property repossessions to rise by 50 per cent next year, say lenders

Borrowers in the adverse credit sector" will be mostly hit."The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) predicted that there would be a 50 per cent increase in repossessions in 2008, as well as rising levels of arrears and a fall in house prices in real terms."

Posted by peter @ 02:21 PM 1 Comments

Credit Crunch not over yet..

Times Online: UBS fears credit crunch may last into 2008

Global banks fear over the future: "The Swiss bank's new chief executive Marcel Rohner is forced to admit that its troubles could be far from over"

Posted by peter @ 01:18 PM 2 Comments

Who are the real villains behind the property bubble?

MoneyWeek: Why you should sell out of buy-to-let now

With falling house prices and mortgage approvals, the bad news has been coming thick and fast for the UK property market. And its only set to get worse...

Posted by mary @ 12:45 PM 6 Comments

The timebomb is going to go bang.

This Is Money: The buy-to-let timebomb

Like so many young professionals hoping to cash in on Britain's property boom, Paula Collins, a 26-year-old recruitment consultant from London, thought her money would be safe.

Posted by garyb @ 12:11 PM 1 Comments

More downward pressure ...

Daily Mail: Negative equity warning for first-time buyers as repossessions set 'to jump 75%'

"Property economists at Capital Economics are predicting a fall in prices of 3 per cent in both 2008 and 2009" - And the rest! "Gordon Brown's decade at the Treasury was characterised by years of easy credit fuelling a house price boom and a mountain of personal debt. "But he has left a legacy of falling take-home pay and an increasingly ferocious credit squeeze - with homeowners and would-be homebuyers left to pick up the pieces."

Posted by jonathan @ 12:02 PM 0 Comments

The Hood leaves "upbeat" housebuilder firm

BBC "News": Rock boss resigns from Persimmon

Persimmon has cut Applegarth loose. Will Rock do the same? No, because even though he's been removed from messing things up in Persimmon, he's still running the show at the Bank of England's newly-acquired mortgage business. Earlier this year, Persimmon was remarkably upbeat about the prospects of the housing market in the coming months.

Posted by paul @ 12:00 PM 3 Comments

KERCHING! - INFLATION-TASTIC! Ignore this one at your peril Barker!!!

Telegraph: China's 20pc wages rise prompts inflation fears

Wages in China's cities have risen by almost 20 per cent since the start of the year, the government in Beijing said yesterday, adding to fears that the country's economy is overheating and might export inflation round the world.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:52 AM 19 Comments

Off Topic? - Maybe; but this quote is great!

Telegraph: Ipod generation crushed by tax, says report

''The Ipod generation has been reduced to galley slaves in the public spending empire of the baby boomers," Mr Bosanquet says. "The Government is in the process of mortgaging the future of a generation."

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:42 AM 6 Comments

A BTL landlord confesses his losses

BBC Radio 4: After 10 years of a housing boom, are we about to see a crash?

The IMF tell us that house prices in the UK are 40% overvalued. A BTL landlord tells us that his rents don't cover his mortgages, and that lots of his mates have it far worse. But Lombard St Research tell us that it's all gonna be OK: house prices will "stabilise". C'mon Confused76, give us a laugh... Listen Again facility, 7:50am.

Posted by slappyrick @ 08:34 AM 6 Comments

Shortage? What housing shortgage?

The Times: Why are they empty?

"[...] The Empty Homes Agency estimates that there are 840,000 empty homes in the UK. National Land Use Database figures indicate that a further 420,000 homes could be established in disused commercial properties in England, including former pubs and space above shops. This adds up to more than one million additional homes which would make up a third of the Governments three million target."

Posted by president d szvaselinovic @ 08:30 AM 10 Comments

Guess who's in control here...

Bloomberg: Bernanke reluctant to cut rates, may end up doing so anyway

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues sound as if they'd prefer to just say no to an interest-rate cut this week. The financial markets may not let them. Bernanke and his colleagues have avoided signaling they want to reduce benchmark lending rates at their Oct. 31 meeting, ever since lowering them by a larger-than-anticipated half percent in September. Traders don't agree. They consider the chances of a rate cut this week as a cinch.

Posted by little professor @ 07:58 AM 1 Comments

further falls expected in house prices

telegraph: house prices to fall further

of course these falls will be limited with a lack of supply?????which we know is likely to change BIG time.btl and forced sellers are about to flood the market

Posted by taffee @ 07:49 AM 1 Comments

Lunatic Barker talking about rate cuts!!! - I despair!

Reuters: BoE's Barker asks if rate cut needed

The question for policy-makers is whether things have changed so much in Britain's economy since August that interest rates need to come down, Monetary Policy Committee member Kate Barker was quoted as saying

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 12:33 AM 13 Comments

Monday, October 29, 2007

So thats where and why the FTB's have disappeared!

Times: Taxman to take almost half a new graduates starting salary

Reform points out in a report that property prices for first-time buyers are eight times the average earnings of those aged 22 to 29, up from five times in 1999. It is also indicated that a new graduate on an average starting salary of 27,155 would be left with only 13,862.26 a year to spend after student loan repayments, direct and indirect taxation, national insurance, pension contributions and council tax.

Posted by enuii @ 10:59 PM 15 Comments

Cardiff: Bargain BTL - Any takers

Rightmove: Bargain Buy to let

Cheap BTL in Cardiff. Gives the docklands a run for its money.

Posted by deepak @ 10:26 PM 7 Comments

On the front page as I logged in this evening

Yahoo News: House repossessions set to soar

The number of people whose homes are repossessed looks set to soar next year to levels not seen since the 1990s house price crash, it was predicted. The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) warned the five interest rate rises seen since the summer of 2006 would contribute to a 50% jump in the number of homes that are repossessed during 2008.

Posted by scumbag @ 06:54 PM 0 Comments

What goes up fastest...

Guardian: London and south-east show biggest falls in house prices

House prices have dropped for the first time in two years, a new survey shows today, adding to mounting evidence that higher interest rates have knocked the confidence of buyers.

Posted by garyb @ 06:42 PM 0 Comments

Come on guys vent in this

Yahoo: Are houseprices starting to crash in your area?

There is some guy in this chat who is still trying to talk market up... lets all have a LOL...

Posted by mark @ 06:21 PM 0 Comments

Repossessions to soar, say mortgage lenders

Guardian: Repossessions to soar, say mortgage lenders

The number of repossessed homes looks set to soar next year to levels not seen since the 1990s house price crash, it was claimed today. At the same time, house prices will edge ahead by just 1% in 2008 and property sales will fall by 15%, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML). The group expects the number of repossessions to rise by 50% during the year, rising from 30,000 this year to 45,000 in 2008. It said this would be the highest level of repossessions seen since the 1990s, although it added the number of mortgages had increased by 1.5m since then, and the level of repossessions still represented just 0.38% of all home loans.

Posted by value @ 06:07 PM 0 Comments

The UK housing market is trending towards at least 1 quarter of price action that could be termed as a crash. The most probable quarter is April to June 2008.

The Market Oracle: UK House Prices - Primary Reasons For a Sharp Fall

1. Buy to Lets Mass Selling 2. Foreclosures (Repossessions) 3. Home Owners Downsizing. 4. Credit Crunch 5. Affordability 6. Lack of First Time Buyers

Posted by disillusioned @ 03:12 PM 14 Comments


Firstrung.co.uk: London house prices fall by over 14K as new sales stock floods the market

- Average prices for prime London property for sale decline for the second month in succession, down 1.3% and wiping over 14,000 off the value of the average London home. - September sees a surge in the number of prime London properties for sale on the market, up 11.8% on last month and up 30.3% on last year. - Prices of prime country property for sale remain flat for the second consecutive month, with the South East and South West regions reporting the first monthly decline in prices since March 2006. - Stock levels of prime country property for sale reach new heights, with volumes up 3.8% on last month and up 32.6% on September 2006.

Posted by disillusioned @ 03:08 PM 2 Comments

Cooling effect

Times Online: Bank figures fuel housing market blues

Mortgage approvals are regarded as a quite good gauge of future market trend "Approvals of new home loans dropped last month to the lowest levels for two years, in the latest sign that the housing market is cooling rapidly. "

Posted by peter @ 02:48 PM 4 Comments

Gold Fever

Reuters: Gold zooms towards $800

Gold rallied to its highest level in 28 years on Monday and targeted $800 as oil surged to a record peak and the dollar tumbled on speculation over a U.S. interest-rate cut. Are gold prices pointing to something very nasty????

Posted by pecker @ 02:26 PM 7 Comments

American Nightmare - Subprime

BBC: american nightmare

The crisis in US subprime mortgages has fallen hard on the city of Cleveland, Ohio, where as many as one in six households have been affected.

Posted by seanb303 @ 01:13 PM 1 Comments

Surely this accounts for most of UK households?

Firstrung: Mortgage borrowers need to heed warning signs on debt and net worth

More insightful comment from the guys at Fool.co.uk. Their suggestion is that if you have two thirds of your mortgage outstanding and no savings you could be in financial danger. That surely must be over half of UK households...Fool.co.uk has highlighted that borrowers run the risk of hitting their 'danger threshold' if they do not take stock of their finances. The firm has drawn attention to the fact that those borrowers falling outside the Bank of England's defined 'danger thresholds' are some of the most likely to end up falling into arrears.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:56 PM 8 Comments

December figures should be revealing

Firstrung: Mortgage Lending falls dramatically as lenders nervously await the full impact of the 'credit crunch'

U.K. lenders approved the fewest mortgages in over two years in September as borrowing costs increased, adding to evidence the property market is slowing dramtically. These figures must be taken in the context that the September data is lower due to the affect of five interest rate increases and not as a consequence of nearly 40% less mortgage product, which has been 'stripped out' of the market due to the credit crunch turbulence which originated in the US in August

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:53 PM 1 Comments

2008 the rot really sets in

Reuters: House sales set to drop in tough 2008

House price growth is likely to slow to just 1 percent in 2008 from 7 percent this year, and there will be a 15 percent drop in property sales, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) has forecast.

Posted by flamepoint @ 12:05 PM 8 Comments

Is 2008 going to be so bad?

Times Online: Savers bail out of property funds

Many financial advisers are recommending selling your commercial property before 2008. "INVESTORS have pulled millions of pounds out of commercial property funds in the past few months as fears of a crash in the sector grow"

Posted by peter @ 11:26 AM 3 Comments

Fair play

CNN: Citigroup: 'Gimme shelter'

SIV's and M-LEC coming under the spotlight.

Posted by yoss @ 11:26 AM 0 Comments

Is the Fed's data wrong, or is something up?

Federal Reserve: Overnight Trading Rates

Not actually a news article as such, but the overnight interbank trading figures from the Fed. Ummm... Did someone really pay 15% for funds on 25/10? If the Fed's data is wrong, that's worrying in itself, but if someone really did it rather indicates a stressed bank borrowing without the collateral that would allow them to get to the discount window.

Posted by james @ 11:23 AM 1 Comments

UBS predicts further slide in housing market

Times Online: UBS braced for fresh credit crunch hit

"UBS, the world's biggest money manager, gave warning that the credit crunch could force it to make further writedowns, despite the fourth quarter getting off to a relatively healthy start."

Posted by peter @ 11:14 AM 0 Comments

Short article detailing irrational exuberance in UK HP's compared to Germany

FT: Germany is homing in on better times

"Compared with most capital cities in the western world, Berlin has almost unbelievably low house prices. For the price of one house in London, you get about five in Berlin. But in the medium term, Germany will benefit from having a housing depression behind it. In the UK, Spain and Ireland, it is only just starting. For the UK in particular, the next few years look pretty grim. "

Posted by sellsellsell @ 11:08 AM 0 Comments

More arguments against MPC rate cutting

FT: Official pay figures may underplay rise

Yet more evidence of cooking the books to hide the real inflationry picture.
"Average earnings may be rising faster than official statistics have reported, according to experimental pay figures published by the Office for National Statistics."
"The findings could have important implications for the Bank of Englands monetary policy committee"

Posted by voiceofreason @ 10:14 AM 1 Comments

Cheap houses coming to a town near you soon!

Weak new-build market

Times Online: The property market - October 28, 2007

"The latest monthly index from the website Smartnewhomes.com reveals the average price of a new-build in the UK fell 0.9% to 257,036 in September. It was the third drop in as many months; the average cost of a new home fell 1.2% last quarter. Prices rose only in Wales (up 3%) and the southwest (4%)". In meantime costs of development rise...

Posted by peter @ 09:30 AM 0 Comments

No profit taking this week then, $100 is only a matter of time now (WE ARE DOOMED!)

USA Today: Oil sets record, surpasses $93 a barrel

SINGAPORE (AP) Oil prices rose above $93 a barrel to a new trading high in Asia Monday on growing political tensions in the Middle East, a weak dollar and worries about the supply outlook ahead of the winter. "The strong price is due to supply concerns in general, on top of which we have the geopolitical news," said Victor Shum, a Singapore-based energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 08:46 AM 20 Comments

It's all happening now

The Times Online: House price gloom as the wealthy turn away

"House prices fell for the first time in two years this month, sending a shudder through millions of homeowners already hit by rising mortgage repayments and more expensive borrowing. The outlook for homeowners is likely to worsen with news that the wealthy are losing confidence in bricks and mortar as an investment."

Posted by onyerhike @ 07:39 AM 1 Comments

Its all going Pete Tong - even Savills now agree!

The Times: House price gloom as wealthy turn away

Looks like the housing market will now have to rely on the Northern Ireland figures to pull it along now even high end London is faltering, LOL.

Posted by andyh @ 04:55 AM 8 Comments

Hometrack survey shows prices down 0.1%

Daily Mail: House prices fall for the first time in 2 years

After 2 months of stagnation, house prices fell by 0.1% during October as higher interest rates and falling confidence continued to impact on the market, Hometrack said. House prices fell by between 0.1% and 0.2% across all regions of England and Wales except the West Midlands, where values remained unchanged. Only 1.3% of postcode areas showed price rises. The biggest were seen in London and the South East. A spokesman described the falls as not unexpected, but said further falls would be limited due to a shortage of homes being put up for sale.

Posted by little professor @ 12:40 AM 4 Comments

As safe as houses

The Mail: Thousands of families face ruin from the buy-to-let timebomb

"Many saw it as a get-rich- quick scheme in a buoyant market. But interest rates have risen, house prices are falling and people who have borrowed beyond their means, or didn't set aside money to cover periods when the property is empty, are finding themselves unable to pay the mortgage and being forced to hand back the keys to the bank."

Posted by sovietuk @ 12:15 AM 31 Comments

Sunday, October 28, 2007

Both sales and rentals softening

Primelocation.com: Prime London sale and rental prices decline for the second consecutive month

Average prices for prime London property for sale decline for the second month in succession, down 1.3% and wiping over 14,000 off the value of the average London home. The market for prime London property to rent witnesses a drop in average rental prices monthonmonth, down 0.8% in September 2007. However, stock levels have hit record levels, up 9.6% since August 2007. [Spotted this while looking for a new place to rent - looks like Assetzzz and the BTL brigade may be wrong with their forecasts of rising rents]

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 09:34 PM 4 Comments

UK House Prices - Primary Reasons For a Sharp Fall

Market Oracle: UK House Prices - Primary Reasons For a Sharp Fall

1. Buy to Lets Mass Selling

Posted by david20040_0 @ 08:23 PM 9 Comments

Fewer mortgages 'won't affect house prices'

MoneyHighStreet.com: Fewer mortgages 'won't affect house prices'

The reduction in the number of mortgage products available to consumers in the UK is unlikely to affect house prices in the UK, an industry expert has said.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 08:02 PM 22 Comments

It's getting tough out there, it's a black hole & we are all heading into the unknown.

Jubak's Journal10/26/2007 12:01 AM ET: Credit contagion infects your wallet

My worst nightmare about the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market is coming true. Even the moths have legged it.

Posted by acetip @ 06:55 PM 0 Comments

Weekly round up

Firstrung: Firstrung, first time buyers, the week in focus

First time buyers were treated to the usual mix of property news over the past week. NR is still a subject that simply won't go away, although with the Together Mortgage now priced at 7.69% with a 2K fee, we'd politely suggest that the product and their first time buyer initiatives are effectively dead. Irrespective of the 125% loan to value 'benefits' 769 for every 100K borrowed (on an interest only basis) will prove far too expensive for most first time buyers.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:30 PM 0 Comments

Is the slide is already bigger than it first appears?

Independent on Sunday: Lending slides as housing jitters take hold

Apologies if the BBA stats have already been commented on - the IoS article highlights the comparison to last Sept's lending values (big drop), but a quick trawl on the BBA website seems to show that the average per loan amounts have dropped 4.5% since July. Do buyers suddenly have bigger deposits? Are they only buying cheaper homes? Or are the stats showing that on 'average', house prices have been falling for the past 3 months? (Assuming LTV %ages are relatively static)

Posted by happyrenter @ 11:03 AM 3 Comments

Rosie's column scrapped

The times: Into the sunset

A sign of the times. Methinks Rosie's not quite convinced and wants to wait till april before throwing in the towel

Posted by camem' @ 10:58 AM 1 Comments

yuk - subprime

FT: Debt advisers warn of sharp rise in repossessions

John Charcol warns of increases in repros next year - hardly news or a unique spin. But interesting none the less "The subprime mortgage market is not as big as in the US nor is the lending considered as high-risk or irresponsible. UK subprime lending is thought to account for around 9 per cent of the total mortgage market, with "heavy adverse" - borrowers who have multiple court judgments or are recovering from bankruptcy - making up around 20 per cent. Nor has subprime lending in the UK been as aggressive as in the US. However, it has been cheap - most mortgage brokers say too cheap. Borrowers have therefore been able to obtain larger mortgages than they perhaps should have done, which have become unaffordable as rates have risen."

Posted by techieman @ 10:19 AM 1 Comments

another nu labour scandal

times online: buy to let barbie

no comment

Posted by sold out @ 09:24 AM 0 Comments

The Observer raises the black flag

Observer: UK prime target for a crash

The Observer joins the ranks of those who think there is something amiss in the Kingdom.......

Posted by andyh @ 08:31 AM 1 Comments

Darling says house prices will crash

BBC: Lenders reject Darling's attack

Chancellor Alistair Darling said that house price rises were "unsustainable" and lenders should ensure borrowers "have not overstretched themselves". Uhm did he check with his boss before saying this??

Posted by who stole my pension? @ 06:04 AM 19 Comments

Saturday, October 27, 2007

According to the BBC, J C Flowers are not interested. They are however "potentially interested"

BBC "News": US private equity firm eyes Rock

20 billion, and some more and no-one wants to touch The Crock. Still the BBC keeps going, trying to drum up interest from nowhere. They really should give it up because as the mouthpiece of the government, their bias is started to show like a flabby middle aged spread.

Posted by paul @ 05:04 PM 3 Comments

More oil for the Housebuilding Gravy Train Please!

Guardian: Building 3m new homes will not end crisis, adviser warns minister

Plans to build 3m new homes in England by 2020 will not be enough to meet the deepening housing crisis advises the National Housing and Planning Advice Unit which takes account of rising demand for larger family homes, an increase in second home ownership, and a rise in empty properties.

Posted by enuii @ 03:29 PM 28 Comments

ironic, co-incidence, or just plain funny?

Firstrung: Buy to let has boomed in Newcastle over the past six months

Let's hope most of these newbie BTL players don't work for the newly nationalised Northern Rock....Newcastle upon Tyne is the buy-to-let hotspot in England, Scotland and Wales, according to The Mortgage Works. In research of mortgage lending by 121 broker postcode areas, the lender found that in Q2 2007 Newcastle saw the greatest number of buy to let loans complete. Property investors in this region took out 3,545 buy-to-let mortgages in Q2 2007, 32% more than the next highest postal area - London eastern central where 2,676 loans completed.

Posted by converted lurker @ 02:51 PM 5 Comments

Irish Housing Bubble

Sunday Business Post: Housing Market Sailing into a Perfect Storm

Great analysis of the situation in Ireland by a professor of Economics. Although dated from April this year - it's great to see his predicitons coming through. Today another VI blamed the propersty slowdown on Stamp Duty and negative media stories.

Posted by tricky @ 02:39 PM 3 Comments

Wil gold correct now or run to $850

Gold Price: GOLD PRICE rise will ignite Wave 3 in shares..

For those of you who have realised the desperation of the situation and moved into gold/gold stocks. This is a tricky time for gold, will wave 1 correct now or run as high as $850?

If it does run to $850 then this sets the precedent for wave 2 and 3 to be absolutely massive.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:00 PM 2 Comments

Conquer the Crash

Book: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression

This link was posted by blogger: M2 this week. I found chapters 3 and 4 were great to understand Elliott waves from a beginners point of view.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:24 AM 6 Comments

Countrywide says that the worst is over now and everything will be alright sometime very soon now

BBC "News": US mortgage firm sees $1.2bn loss

The best quote: "the firm said it was through the worst of the slowdown that has dogged the US housing sector and expected to make a profit in the fourth quarter". Well, in the long term of course, I intend to become a millionaire and win the lottery and marry a supermodel.

Posted by paul @ 02:45 AM 26 Comments

Rants on the Irish Housing Bubble

Morgan Kelly: Professor of Economics: Rants on the Irish Housing Bubble

4 excellent papers which detail the crisis in Ireland on housing and how the banks are in it up to their necks. Brilliant stuff. "Pilots define a soft landing as one that you can walk away from. Looking at the price collapses in places like Finland and the Netherlands, and the building bust in Arizona, Ireland could be heading for something closer to what they call CDIT: controlled descent into terrain. You are happily descending through cloud, thinking yourself at a safe altitude, until suddenly you smack into a hillside.

Posted by tricky @ 12:19 AM 0 Comments

Lots of pain in California - coming our way

Bloomberg: California's Home-Loan Defaults Rise to Decade High

California mortgage defaults more than doubled in the third quarter to the highest level in more than a decade as the housing slump battered homeowners. Homeowners received 72,571 default notices, more than double the 27,218 filed a year ago.

Posted by alan @ 12:18 AM 4 Comments

US Defaults still going up (wait till we hit February).

Bloomberg: Subprime-Mortgage Defaults Rose Last Month, ABX Data Suggests

Subprime mortgage delinquencies rose in September as U.S. homeowners ran out of options to refinance into more affordable loans after their interest rates adjusted, UBS AG analysts said today

Posted by alan @ 12:13 AM 2 Comments

Friday, October 26, 2007

Looks as though the housebuilders shares are suffering

ft.com: On London: Cracks appearing in the housing sector

The recent fall in the Persimmon share price has prompted us to initiate a share buy-back. We remain confident of the growth opportunities available to us as a business notwithstanding the tougher macro-economic conditions currently in place.

Posted by frank @ 08:53 PM 2 Comments

Volumes down 12% on the year

LandReg: House prices Sept2007

Prices up 0.4% but volumes down 12% (15% in London). So is the small price increase statistically significative? The large volume drop has a considerable effect on the average price. Also, sales volume data is only up to August, I bet the full carnage will be evident in two / three months time (when they publish the post-august-crunch and post-northern-crock data).

Posted by confused76 @ 02:04 PM 22 Comments

The truth about the new Buy-to-Lose brigagde...

Firstrung: A third of buy to let investors struggle to make rent equal payments

Heritable Bank is warning that one in ten property investors cannot meet their mortgage payments from rent alone. A further third of today's property investors say they can only just cover their mortgage commitments from the rental income they receive. With the buoyant housing market of recent years, 43 per cent of respondents rely most on property price growth, compared to just 15 per cent who focus most on rental income. **** So in essence, 10% of BTL's are paying out for an investment that is falling in value ..... what smart cookies.

Posted by uncle chris @ 02:01 PM 10 Comments

gold hits $778 an ounce

business day: Gold scales 28-year peak

Gold climbed to a 28-year peak on Friday and platinum traded just below an all-time high, as a record low dollar and lifetime-high oil spurred buying.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:59 PM 5 Comments

2011-2012 or even longer

Safe Haven: When Will US Housing Bottom?

If Europe follows the US in its 2 year house price movements time lag then it will be 2013-2014 or even longer for the UK to bottom out. A fall of 40pc-60pc will probably take 6-8 years to work out.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:14 PM 9 Comments

For those of you who are invested in commercial property

MoneyWeek: Good reason to sell out of commercial property

Uhm, uhm, uhm (= muted laugh....)

Posted by confused76 @ 01:08 PM 1 Comments

3% Drop in 2008 and 2009

CheckMyFile: How are house prices moving in your area?

"Some Experts" are forecasting that the next two years will see a slump in prices predicting a 3% drop in both 2008 and 2009. And the rest!!

Posted by crutchley @ 11:47 AM 1 Comments

US median house prices down 18pc

The Telegraph: The sky has already fallen

The median price of US houses has crashed from a peak of $262,600 in March to $211,700 in September. This is an 18pc drop nationwide. Yes, the year-on-year slide is still just 4.2pc, but that will soon change as the base effect catches up.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:37 AM 7 Comments

The real impact of the credit crunch

www.find.co.uk: House prices don't panic says Item club, but maybe we should

One of the most absurd pieces of logic we have seen permeate the business media of late is that the housing market is safe from a crash because repossession levels remain low. This is a ridiculous argument for the following reason. Up until recently it was actually quite difficult to get yourself into so much financial trouble that your property ended up being repossessed. Why? Well, any time you had even a hint of financial problems, all you had to do was use the combination of soaring asset prices and easy availability of credit to top-up your mortgage. But this option has been removed

Posted by michael baxter @ 11:20 AM 3 Comments

What about one last debt splurge for Xmas?

Reuters: Credit crunch sees consumers reduce borrowing

Consumers will take on less unsecured debt this year as lenders raise their rates and reject a higher proportion of applicants, a report shows. Personal loan rates have increased by up to 4 percent, according to recent data from price comparison service Moneyfacts.co.uk. At the same time, lenders are tightening their criteria on both mortgage and other debt, as they respond to volatility in capital markets and higher perceived risk among borrowers. The number of rejected mortgage applications has surged by almost 60 percent over the past six months...

Posted by davethebox @ 10:24 AM 0 Comments

It's a bloodbath across the pond

The Times: US rate cut looks certain after new data

US house prices slumped yet further last month, while another steep drop in the numbers of homes being sold pushed the size of stockpile of properties on the market to a 22-year high. Another cut in interest rates from the Fed next week is now a racing certainty, with economists expecting that the US central bank will match Septembers half-point cut. "There is massive downward pressure on house prices, said Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. The credit crunch has clearly had a devastating impact on an already weak housing market. This is much worse than even housing bears like ourselves thought it would get.

Posted by little professor @ 10:18 AM 16 Comments

Times now talks about "decline"

Times: Approvals for mortgages fall as property market wanes

"A sharp drop in mortgage approvals, to their lowest level for any September for seven years, yesterday confirmed that the decline in the property market is gathering pace." Now expect BTLers to bail out en masse (I am sparing you my usual laugh but trust me I am laughing hard)

Posted by confused76 @ 09:51 AM 7 Comments

Bailout for US Lenders? Can you imagine this joker is even proposing this hair-brained scheme?!?

Times: Henry Paulson presses for aid to sub-prime lenders

Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, is seeking to persuade the White House to offer financial compensation to American mortgage lenders that try to help troubled homeowners by renegotiating the terms of their loans.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:37 AM 6 Comments

Oh well... The Bulls are back in town

BBC News: 3m extra homes 'still not enough'

Well apparently even tho there are 670,000 empty homes out there, building 240,000 new ones wont be enough to satisfy demand!! Wonder what EA/Building Company co-sponsored this one.

Posted by crutchley @ 08:24 AM 7 Comments

Proposed solution = Rate cut = Stagflation!?

Fool.co.uk: Sub-Prime Crisis Is Far From Over

A party of eminent bankers is climbing the Alps. After several hours it gets completely lost. One of the financial gurus studies his map, turns it upside down, consults his compass, trains his field glasses on distant landmarks, and finally measures the position of the sun. Finally he turns to his colleagues and says, "Do you see that big mountain in the distance?" "Sure do," reply the other sages. "Well, according to my calculations, we're standing on top of it..."

Posted by paranoia blue @ 08:05 AM 0 Comments

Disastrous auction results

Andrews Robertson: October auction results

Not exactly a news item, but I hope interesting nonetheless: the results from a London auction yesterday. Percentage of lots sold in auctions this year: 85%, 79%. 74%, 79%. Percentage sold yesterday: 53%. Lot 150 was a three-storey townhouse on a Barratt development 15 minutes' walk from the centre of Durham (and opposite my rented house). Bought new for 367,000 in March 2006. Previously on sale for 295,000. Sold at auction yesterday for 220,000. So in 19 months it lost 147,000, or 40%, or 246 a day. I think it is still overpriced. It will fetch 900 a month in rent, so for a 6% gross rental yield, it is worth no more than 180,000. We don't necessarily need predigested statistics reported by semi-numerate journalists to tell us what is happening in front of our eyes.

Posted by monty032 @ 05:30 AM 9 Comments

Crude oil briefly topped 91 dollars in Asian trade Friday (This week's bear trap was a lull without new data)

Forbes: Oil crosses 91 dollars in Asian trade - UPDATE 2

Pipeline inflation will begin to feed through with CPI and interest rates under pressure by new year if this is sustained for much longer. Unfortunately this will harm far more than just the housing market. We could be at the beginning of a protracted bull market now given that the quiet low demand period between the US driving season/hurricane season and the northern hemisphere winter is now at a close. How high it goes depends mainly on how cold the winter gets, geopolitical tensions and what happens to oil reserves. Prices could shoot up from here should more news about why OPEC cannot increase supplies become common knowledge, in combination with fears that non OPEC output could be in terminal decline now. Where from here? It could get to $115/barrel by New Year.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 05:07 AM 1 Comments

20.6 billion and counting. When is someone going to admit that the treasury has backed an utter loser at the taxpayers' expense?

Times Online: Chancellor Alistair Darling puts pressure on Northern Rock to resolve crisis

It's not as if this situation is unprecedented - Japan allowed this to happen years ago with the creation of "zombie banks" that the government would not let go under. The result was two decades of economic contraction and a massive bill for the taxpayer. So our esteemed leaders in the UK have decided that we will be paying for Applegarth's largesses for decades to come, and Northern Rock will get off scot-free. That's called "corruption" when it happens in foreign countries, and the ECB may yet call it so too.

Posted by paul @ 04:09 AM 13 Comments

American Disaster

Guardian: We are headed for billions in lost wealth

This is not really news to those of us who have been following the Charles Hugh Smith blog (http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html) or Dr. Housing Bubble (http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/). Although the article pertains to the American house market, I suspect that this *VERY* serious problem should concern all of us who are interested in our standard of living in the future.

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:43 AM 3 Comments

Asset rich doesn't mean cash rich

Telegraph: Property Market Watch

Excellent article summing up what I've felt for years. Unless you own an investment property, rising house prices don't make you richer.

Posted by panjang @ 01:30 AM 0 Comments

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Plunge Protection Team and the Federal Reserve saw it coming.


And in case you haven't noticed the Plunge Protectors - the real name of which is the President's Working Group on Financial Markets - are no longer secretive.

Posted by chris @ 09:58 PM 0 Comments

It might not be just houses that take a tumble

This Is Money: Britain 'on brink of credit crunch slump'

The UK economy is still at danger from the world credit crunch and faces its first recession for 16 years, according to the Bank of England and a leading investment bank.

Posted by garyb @ 07:59 PM 3 Comments

The Press are starting to believe!

Times: Tempus comment: Creaky housing

"But are prices set to fall? It's too early to say." Err.... is it? Surely they can't go up any more can they?

Posted by crutchley @ 05:45 PM 0 Comments

Average house price down 1,239 in September

IFAonline: House price growth falls 1% in September

Assetz said: "The average price of a UK property has also fallen, from 213,954 in August to 212,715 in September, a 0.5% drop in prices" Why do these i@iots still use the G-word (I mean growth) Uaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Posted by confused76 @ 04:23 PM 34 Comments

More home truths from Mr Verity

BBC Website: Few cash in on rising house prices

Three in four home owners believe they are better off as a consequence of rising house prices, but in most cases they are wrong.

Posted by bloke111 @ 04:17 PM 5 Comments

Lending drops 27% since last year

BBC Website: Bank mortgage lending sees slump

There was a slump in fresh mortgage lending by some of the UK's biggest banks last month.

Posted by bloke111 @ 04:09 PM 3 Comments

Bank of England warns

Times Online: UK financial system at risk from new shocks, says Bank

Bank of England issued a gloomy report today, saying: "Britains financial system is vulnerable to new shocks in the wake of its most severe challenge for decades, and banks and authorities must learn the lessons of the crisis."

Posted by peter @ 02:48 PM 0 Comments

Big fall in some apartment prices

bbcnews: The Truth About Property

Significant price falls in a number of new build apartments in Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds have been uncovered by a BBC series on property.

Posted by aqp @ 02:29 PM 1 Comments

U.K. Natural Gas for Winter Rises to Record as Flows Decline

bloomberg: U.K. Natural Gas for Winter Rises to Record as Flows Decline

U.K. Natural Gas for Winter Rises to Record as Flows Decline

Posted by heron @ 02:14 PM 3 Comments

A must listen !!!

BBC Five Live: Victoria Derbyshire Phone in on house prices

This is the best phone in discussion for a while. Andrew Verity argues the case that house prices increasing at the rates we've seen in the UK are not a good thing. Also features Gary McCausland and Sarah Beeny. Classic quote from the Gary McCausland "property is what you call inelastic" not only proving that he is an arrogant, but he knows nothing of fundamental economics. What an eedyet. From 25th Oct programme: 1hr 4 mins in (10:08am)

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:39 PM 4 Comments

BTL: Buy To Lose!

BBC Website: Big falls in some apartment prices

Significant price falls in a number of new build apartments in Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds have been uncovered by a BBC series on property.

Posted by bloke111 @ 01:26 PM 11 Comments

Gloom, gloom, gloom... aha hahahh ahhah... 27% lower than a year ago!!!

Times: Sharp drop in mortgages increases housing gloom

New September approvals fall to a seven-year low, are 14% down on August and 27% lower than a year ago. Let us prepare to see scores of EAs close their shops, and selling their stupid Mini's for cheap. Mr Newland said: "All in all, we expect mortgage demand, and other indicators of housing activity, to slow further in the coming months, consistent with quite a sharp slowdown in house price inflation in 2008." What sloowwdooowwwn? It's a crash!

Posted by confused76 @ 01:20 PM 5 Comments

Credit Crunch in pics clearly not over

Financial Times Alphaville: The Crunch - in pictures

Look at Figure 5 and 10, I recon 80% of those junk mortgages handed out in 2005 are still outstanding.

Posted by happyrentingz @ 01:02 PM 0 Comments

Open letter to Alan Greenspan "Shut Up"

Long or Short Capital: Dear Greenspan, Please Shut Up

Dear Alan, During your time at the Fed, you were famously circumspect. Now you cant shut up. Please do so.

Posted by happyrentingz @ 12:53 PM 0 Comments

The Bank of England today warned the commercial property sector could be set for more trouble due to turmoil in the financial markets.

Property Week: Bank of England warning for commercial property sector

In the Banks bi-annual Financial Stability Report, commercial property is identified as vulnerable because of the previous boom in the sector. It points out that lenders have already tried to tighten terms whose 9% share of major UK bank lending is now above the previous peak before the early 1990s market crash.The report said the the price of commercial property derivative contracts suggests further falls. Contacts are surprised at the speed of the slowdown, says the report. Which they expected to be more pronounced for secondary than prime commercial property. The impact could be more severe than in the past because of a lack of confidence and continued tightness in wholesale funding markets following Northern Rocks collapse.

Posted by thf andrew @ 12:51 PM 1 Comments

How Much?

Citywire: 7 in 10 homeowners con't do basic mortgage maths, says Experian

The need for financial education for adults becomes ever more pressing in the light of a survey from credit reference agency Experian which shows that 70% of homebuyers do not know what effect a 0.5% increase in mortgage interest would have on their monthly repayments.

Posted by su @ 11:31 AM 8 Comments

DOH! They ought to take a leaf out of the MPCs book and cook the inflation stats until we have NO inflation - simple!

BBC: Australia rate rise threat grows

Australia's underlying inflation surged in the three months to the end of September, rising from an annual rate of 2% to 3%, figures show. Analysts said this meant an interest rate rise was now almost inevitable, and this could worry the government ahead of next month's general election.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:47 AM 1 Comments

It's all about ROI for BTL Investors

The Times: Exclusive: My golden secret about property prices

If the return on investment plateaus, investors will sell and look for alternatives (if any can be found of course). In the housing market this will precipitate a crash through over supply, over inflated prices and current loss of confidence. Commentators use the supposed housing shortage as the saviour to prop up demand and prevent a US style crash. Wait until the BTL investors unload because they aren't seeing a return, causing the rest of the pack to panic. That should remove the housing supply shortage argument. Incidentaly, savvy investors sold their housing portfolios up to a year ago - it's the naive investors, as with any bubble, who're going to get caught.

Posted by jonathan @ 10:35 AM 4 Comments

Correction, its not a crash, its a correction

Telegraph.co.uk: MPC's top property expert warns of buy-to-let dangers

"The Bank of England's leading property expert has warned that problems in the buy-to-let sector could provide the trigger for a housing market correction." Someone best change the name of the site then :p

Posted by the haunted @ 09:22 AM 16 Comments

Estimates on losses still rising

NYT: Report Broader Losses From Mortgages

Full extent of losses now expected to be $400 Billion. I would expect that to keep rising, back in august it was on 100 Billion.

Posted by yoss @ 09:15 AM 0 Comments

Its a drop for the FTSE today then!!!!!

Telegraph: Investors warned of slide in shares

BOE warns shares are ready to fall off a cliff!!! nice, just as they warned the banks about property and to protect in case of a 40% decline, the shares look certain to do just that.

Posted by lee @ 02:36 AM 6 Comments

The credit crisis is far from over and British shareholders are at serious risk of becoming its next victims, the Bank of England warns.

telegraph.co.uk: Investors warned of slide in shares

The credit crisis is far from over and British shareholders are at serious risk of becoming its next victims, the Bank of England warns. In an unexpectedly downbeat report on the state of the British financial system, the bank warns that the UK stock market is "particularly vulnerable" to a downturn.

Posted by chris @ 02:10 AM 1 Comments

Costello warns recession if Labor wins

theaustralian.news.com.au: PETER Costello has warned voters that the election of a Labor government would trigger a wages breakout and plunge the nation into a recession.

The Treasurer issued his recession prediction yesterday in response to new Consumer Price Index figures showing an annual rise in the cost of living of 1.9 per cent, raising the likelihood of another interest rate rise. Mr Costello played down the need for a rate rise, stressing that inflation remained within the band agreed by the federal Government and the Reserve Bank. But he warned that voters risked an economic downturn if Kevin Rudd were elected.

Posted by chris @ 01:15 AM 2 Comments

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Merry Lynchers lost $7.9 BILLION on mortagages

ft.com: Merrill falls to loss on $7.9bn writedown

Merrill Lynch sparked fear that Wall Street could face further heavy losses from credit market turmoil, revealing $7.9bn in writedowns on mortgage-related securities during the third quarter? What's gonna happen here then? Who's next?

Posted by cynicalsoothsayer @ 11:00 PM 0 Comments

That's not going to happen, nor should it. A quarter-point cut is a closer call, though some officials don't think it's needed at this point.

bloomberg.com: Wall Street Wants 50, Fed May Give Zip for Now: John M. Berry

On balance, I would characterize the data we have received on the real economy since the last FOMC meeting as supporting our baseline forecast,'' Evans said. However, he did raise the question of whether policy makers might want to take out some ``insurance'' against a potentially costly possibility that even greater weakness in housing could undermine economic growth. Given what Fed officials were thinking on Sept. 18 and what has happened since, that is about the only argument that might cause the FOMC to decide to cut rates next week even by 25 basis points

Posted by chris @ 09:58 PM 0 Comments

Bremner & Bird on Northern Rock

YouTube.com: Its Credit & Its Crunchy!!

Thanks dohousescrashinthewoods, I thought I'd post this on the main page so everybody can see it. Another Bremner & Bird, this time on Northern Rock. As ever, the punch line is classic!

Posted by planning4acrash @ 08:26 PM 2 Comments

My God... it is FAAALLING!!!

MortgageSolutions: Average UK house prices fall

"The average price of a new home in the UK in September was 257,036, down 0.9% in the last month. Prices fell by 1.2% over the last three months but were still up by 0.5% on September 2006." I have no idea what statistics is that, but I found it funny that house prices (probably just new homes) have gone up just 0.5% in 12 months. Far less than the price of milk!

Posted by confused76 @ 06:33 PM 20 Comments

WHY does UK's ONS dream up population oom for 2080 while EuroStat states decrease from 2040???

The Independent: A portrait of Britain in 2031

'On current trends, the ONS now forecasts the numbers in Britain will grow to ... 85.3 million in 2081.' This squarely contradicts EuroStat's projections (e.g. in News Release 48/2005 - 8 April 2005) of a steady UK population decrease after 2040. They admit previous ONS statistics got it completely wrong by "extrapolat[ing] the effects of the post-war 'baby boom'". So how can the ONS develop a reliable projection by basing it on extrapolations of "current trends", rather than assuming less favorable economic conditions and deducting one-time effects (EU enlargement)! The sudden interest in talking up a population increase coincides with the leveling-off of house prices. Is the timely publishing of the ONS' latest facts merely a well-meant attempt of keeping house prices from plunging?

Posted by mikaskay @ 06:15 PM 0 Comments

Oh dear - they were the GUARANTOR of CDOs.....

Bloomberg: Ambac Posts First Loss as Subprime Bond Prices Drop (Update3)

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Ambac Financial Group Inc., the world's second-largest bond insurer, reported its first quarterly loss after reducing the value of subprime mortgage-linked securities the company guarantees by $743 million. The shares fell the most in 2 1/2 years after New York-based Ambac said it had a third-quarter net loss of $360.6 million, or $3.51 a share, compared with net income of $213 million, or $1.98, a year earlier, according to a company statement. Ambac guarantees payments on collateralized debt obligations, promising to pay CDO holders in the event of a default. The value of that insurance has tumbled in line with a slump in the price of CDOs backed by subprime mortgages. Ambac said Oct. 10 that it may report a loss after marking down the value of the securities.

Posted by lvmreader @ 05:38 PM 1 Comments

Jim Rogers -the Us Dollar Is 'doomed'


A great insightful video interview on big global finance issues. This old bird has very little good to say about the Fed, Paulson, Bernanke, and also has some great thoughts on where to put your money.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 04:42 PM 4 Comments

There's no denying it now!

BBC News: Sharp decline in US housing sales

Sales of existing US homes fell 8% to 5.04 million in September, the biggest year-on-year decline for 16 years, said the National Association of Realtors. The average sales price also fell in September, dropping 4.2% from a year earlier to $211,700 (103,000). [still cheaper than the UK]

Posted by little professor @ 04:03 PM 2 Comments

The manufacturing industry optimism shaken

Times Online: Industry confidence shaken by credit squeeze

The manufacturing industry optimism has plummeted in the wake of the Northern Rock crisis. "The Quarterly Industrial Trends report from the CBI shows a sharp drop in business confidence"

Posted by peter @ 03:38 PM 0 Comments

I feel sorry for the BTL'ers...

AboutProperty: Buy-to-let investments not covered by rent

They are really in deep s..t. Restructuring their mortgages is only way forward now that is clear that capital appreciation is history

Posted by confused76 @ 03:30 PM 11 Comments

The BoE's Opinion

This Is Money: Property 'vulnerable', warns Bank guru

Bank of England housing guru Kate Barker has warned that high house prices have left the UK vulnerable to a significant property downturn.

Posted by garyb @ 02:44 PM 0 Comments

Another Bank admitts to big profit lost

Times Online: Merrill Lynch stuns with an $8bn subprime hit

"The investment bank said it would write-down $7.9 billion the third quarter of the year to cover bad investments and the falling price of mortgage-backed collateral it usedto raise money."

Posted by peter @ 02:00 PM 0 Comments

NS&I cuts rates

Times Online: National Savings cuts rates across its range

National Savings and Investments, which has 80 billion in savings, cut today the interest rates on its savings accounts by up to 0.6 percentage points.

Posted by peter @ 01:56 PM 0 Comments

Poor lambs

Yahoo Finance: A Record Year for Layoffs in Finance

It's official. This is the worst year ever for layoffs in the U.S. financial-services industry -- and there's still more than two months to go. ADVERTISEMENT As of October, finance companies had announced 130,000 job cuts for the year to date

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 01:38 PM 2 Comments

More realisation of what Gordon Brown has done to our economy

MoneyWeek: The truth behind the British economic miracle

Its nice to see that someone else recognises that the Brown economic miracle has been nothing of the kind...The German authors of a new report into Britains economic miracle described themselves as disturbed by the state of the British economy... They point out that even as the rest of Europe is trying to cut taxes, the UK is relapsing into high tax and high-regulation sclerosis,... This backwards slide has only been masked by the housing boom, which has in turn fuelled a debt binge, leaving UK consumers with no savings (compared to an 8.3% savings rate in 1992), and personal debt of 1,343bn, which is higher than annual GDP for the first time ever... "The UK is now in worse fiscal shape than almost any other major Western country.

Posted by disillusioned @ 01:31 PM 0 Comments

From the US:: Doll-Housing Crisis Set To Worsen

The Onion: Doll-Housing Crisis Set To Worsen, Mean Older Brother Says

Some folks in the US still have a sense of humor

Posted by tezza @ 01:11 PM 0 Comments

Let it be

The Telegraph: MPC's top property expert warns of buy-to-let dangers

The Bank of England's leading property expert has warned that problems in the buy-to-let sector could provide the trigger for a housing market correction. Kate Barker, one of the Monetary Policy Committee's longest-serving members and an adviser to Gordon Brown on the property market, issued her sternest warning yet on the property market, saying people's expectations for house prices may be due a "major change".

Posted by onyerhike @ 12:33 PM 0 Comments

Some loans classified as prime when they were originated are now going bad at a rapid pace.

Wall Street Journal: Countrywide's New Scare

Subprime mortgages aren't the only challenge facing Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's biggest home-mortgage lender. Some loans classified as prime when they were originated are now going bad at a rapid pace.

Posted by chris @ 11:46 AM 0 Comments

one for us to get out teeth into

Yahoo: Are houseprices starting to crash in your area?

`Get posting on this one... Someone wants the truth..lol

Posted by mark @ 10:43 AM 0 Comments

Comparing mortgage deals

Times Online: Borrowers hit by mortgage deals which end early

"Borrowers risk paying hundreds of pounds in extra interest by signing up for mortgage deals which end sooner than expected."

Posted by peter @ 10:36 AM 0 Comments

Rising rents

Sydney Morning Herald: Rental squeeze horror tales

It isn't always a good thing for the property market to stagnate even for renters. Sydney has had a big boom followed by stagnation and falling prices in some areas. This has lead to an undersupply or rented property! It took a couple of years but it happened. Australia has a very similar housing market to the UK

Posted by maddison @ 10:22 AM 18 Comments

Well, now is this really a surprise

New York Times: Merrill Lynch Set to Report $2.5 Billion in Added Loss

I am listening to CNBC and the news is that the losses may be more like $10 BILLION. Here we now have the "confessionals". Merrill Lynch is expected to report today that it will add about $2.5 billion more to the $5 billion worth of write-downs it has already announced, according to a person briefed on the situation. Merrill reports its third-quarter earnings this morning. The bank announced earlier this month that it expected to write down $5 billion because of losses in its fixed-income unit. Most of the losses, the bank said, were tied to the decline in value of complex debt instruments called collateralized debt obligations, whose value has diminished in recent months as credit markets have been hit by a collapse in the subprime mortgage market.

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:20 AM 10 Comments

Turkey Says Military Raid on Iraq May Come Any Time

bloomberg.com: Turkey Says Military Raid on Iraq May Come Any Time

Turkey Says Military Raid on Iraq May Come Any Time (Update4) Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Turkey may order a military incursion into Iraq ``at any time'' and halt exports to the country, as tens of thousands of Turks joined funerals for soldiers killed near the border.

Posted by chris @ 08:45 AM 1 Comments

Oil and food prices, the bigger picture.

The Oil Drum: The Connection Between Food Supply and Energy: What Is the Role of Oil Price?

Peak oil represents a grave threat to our food supply. Few are aware of how important the petroleum industry is to the agricultural revolution in which we live. (Graphs in report show how use of fertilisers and oil/acre plummet with higher oil prices). Peak oil will do several bad things to the world's energy supply. It will force us to use coal, and the US turns its 200 year supply of coal into a 44 year supply. This implies that by the end of this century, we will NO LONGER have fossil fuels FOR ANYTHING. Going back to an animal-energy based economy means that approximately 5/6ths of us must die. The post fossil fuel world, lacking some new energy source, will consist of not many more than 750 million souls. What an ugly century this will be.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 08:18 AM 20 Comments

2008 predicted in 2005

moneyweek.com: Bust will follow boom - but when

Here is an Aug 2005 article by Fred Harrison, author of Boom, Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010. He theorises that boom-bust cycles are really driven by land prices or property cycles. Is he being proved right? This article (and many more indicators) has spooked me in 2006 to sell my house in 2007. Although I've cashed in on the sale, I hope Fred is wrong on his prediction about the depression in 2010 for all our sakes - now I am worried about my employment and financial future.

Posted by chris @ 01:19 AM 8 Comments

You must watch this!!

You Tube: Bird & Fortune CLASSIC!!

This 8 min. movie both explains subprime better most of us ever could and will have you rolling off your chair! The first bit mocks bankers in general and the show moves onto sub-prime after 3mins. ENJOY!!

Posted by planning4acrash @ 01:17 AM 17 Comments

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

As some investors fear the carry trade is beginning to unwind,

cnbc.com: Time to Buy the Swiss Franc?

CNBC's Guy Johnson asks Marcus Hettinger, vice president of global forex strategy at Credit Suisse, about whether now is the right time to buy into the Swiss Franc.

Posted by chris @ 10:37 PM 1 Comments

Steady as she goes - at least we've got Hedge Funds to keep us all...well, a few of us going...

BBC: UK manufacturing orders decline

'The data will fuel arguments about whether or not the Bank of England should cut interest rates. Analysts are predicting that the government is likely to leave interest rates on hold at 5.75% for the time being.' I love this Freudian slip about the Government setting IRs - Classic BBC like the Beeb reporter at the last general election who was on the news and said 'we're ahead in the exit polls'.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:44 PM 2 Comments

More doom and gloom from the States - No end in sight yet!

Bloomberg: Chicago-Area Homebuilder Will File for Bankruptcy After Default

Neumann Homes Inc. will file for bankruptcy, becoming the second-largest homebuilder to seek Chapter 11 protection from its creditors as the U.S. housing recession enters its third year.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:27 PM 5 Comments

Official stats will soon confirm this.

BBC Wales: Repossessions rise 'set to go on'

House repossessions are their highest level for eight years and the rise is expected to continue, a BBC Wales investigation has found. Mick McAteer, a former policy adviser for Which? and who now heads a think-tank on financial inclusion, said he expects repossessions to be fuelled by a "perfect storm" of high property prices and rising mortgage costs.

Posted by alan @ 08:49 PM 6 Comments

How can a house price crash happen under these condition? It can't.

BBC: UK population 'to hit 65m total'

The population of the UK is set to increase by 4.4 million to 65 million by 2016, according to new projections.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 05:29 PM 59 Comments

WOW - are they really this stupid?

guardian: MPC's Barker says housing market is resilient

"The crisis in financial markets is unlikely to prompt a property crash or even bring the upward trend in house prices to an end, a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee said today. Kate Barker, ..." ...who couldn't justify her wage if her life depended on it...

Posted by inbreda @ 02:44 PM 23 Comments

BTL causing slowdown in housing market

Times Online: Buy-to-let market could threaten house prices

"The buy-to-let market could be a "source of weakness" for property prices in the coming months, according to Gordon Brown's top expert on the housing market."

Posted by peter @ 02:26 PM 3 Comments

Among the "most viewed" links

Times online: Business comment: Personal debt could sink the good ship Great Britain

It's been plain sailing for the UK economy thanks to a constant reach of low interest rates. But things have got too easy, and we've steered ourselves into some choppy waters, with many on the good ship Great Britain starting to feel queasy and out of their depth. I refer to the swell of debt.

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 01:54 PM 2 Comments

What a surprise!

Daily Mail: 70,000 buyers could lose their homes in mortgage crisis

The quadrupling in the number repossessed last year would take the figure close to the peak seen during the property market collapse of the early 1990s... The crisis was triggered by rising unemployment and interest rates, which meant many could not afford to meet repayments. A resulting flood of cheap repossessed homes on to the market fuelled a price crash which left thousands of young buyers owing more on their homes than they were worth.... even if the Bank of England cuts the 5.75 per cent base rate in the next few months, this will be too late to stem the tide of homelessness.

Posted by disillusioned @ 01:30 PM 10 Comments

A nice selection of quotes regarding London house prices

Firstrung.com: London house prices being called in

...experts from the NAEA and RICS suggest that London has already fallen by an average of 10% per annum in some areas... but still it isn't enough to tempt buyers back to the market to buy... Robin Amlot, senior editor of moneyextra.com: "I expect prices to come to a standstill - which will feel like a crash"

Posted by disillusioned @ 01:24 PM 2 Comments

Even though it's true!

Mortgage Solutions: Institutes slammed for buy to let stance

Assetz has criticised the Chartered Institute of Housing (CIH) for supporting the argument that buy to let investors have forced first-time buyers out of the property market.

Posted by disillusioned @ 01:03 PM 6 Comments

American Homeowners Bankruptcy on Rise

Times Online: Bankruptcies surge among US homeowners

"According to the American Bankruptcy Institute, around 69,000 people applied for two types of bankruptcy, one of which protects homeowners from being evicted from their homes if they can present a feasible plan to keep on top of their debt repayments and have a regular income"

Posted by peter w. @ 11:13 AM 0 Comments

You guessed it: Housing is in there!

BBC News: Q&A: What's troubling the markets?

Housing and credit worries have beset the markets for most of the year and the outlook for 2008 is increasingly uncertain... The main fear is that weakness in the US housing market is now spreading to other areas of the economy... The housing market now faces an OVERSUPPLY of properties and acute problems in the sub-prime lending sector, where many low-income borrowers have defaulted on their payments because of high interest rates [sound familiar?]... The old saying, that "when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold", applies more than ever these days. In the globalised economy, the ripples from a downturn in the world's largest economy will be felt far and wide... The US's main trading partners are all LIKELY to be affected.

Posted by disillusioned @ 10:51 AM 2 Comments

Laugh, cry, sit on the sidelines and pick your moment...?

Firstrung: First time buyers in London boroughs face house prices of twelve times income

People in one part of the UK already face house prices of 16 times their income, with a further five areas having house prices at 10 times income or more - a level not predicted to be the average across the country until 2026. The figures are revealed in the CACI Housing Affordability Index, and come at a time when the Government is concluding its consultation on the UK's future housing needs in its Housing Green Paper. If the Government were to choose to increase housing supply in areas where houses are least affordable, the CACI Index highlights those areas in need of most urgent release of land for residential development.

Posted by converted lurker @ 10:41 AM 5 Comments

That 2% fall in disposable over the past decade income is starting to hurt

Firstrung: Families with mortgages cut back on spending and see savings fall

British families are feeling the effect of the five base rate rises since last summer, and are pulling in their horns, according to the latest Borrowing Monitor from Alliance & Leicester. Now that interest payments are consuming more household income, the Thermometer shows people are feeling less comfortable. However, with interest rates now unlikely to hit the 6% level widely predicted in the summer, and with borrowing slowing, we may see household budgets looking less stretched, especially if rates start to drop again.

Posted by converted lurker @ 10:39 AM 3 Comments

These guys are no better than Loan Sharks and need taming

Firstrung: Calls for the FSA to regulate house sale and leaseback schemes

The Council of Mortgage Lenders, Citizens Advice and Shelter are calling upon the Treasury to allow the FSA to regulate sale-and-leaseback schemes, in order to provide greater protection for consumers. In a letter to the Economic Secretary to the Treasury, Kitty Ussher, the organisations expressed concern that some of the schemes may not be treating consumers in a fair manner.

Posted by converted lurker @ 10:37 AM 5 Comments

Households finances not so strong

Times Online: UK's economic growth built on unsustainable foundations, new studies say

Two new reports suggest that UK econmic growth is not so healthy as some claimed before. "Policy Exchange, the centre-right think-tank, says today that the UKs unprecedented period of consistent growth and low inflation is more mirage than miracle. It argues that Britains record is worse than its rivals and is too reliant on erosion of savings and on rises in debt and immigration."

Posted by peter @ 10:26 AM 0 Comments

[Welsh] Repossessions rise 'set to go on'

BBC News: Repossessions rise 'set to go on'

House repossessions are their highest level for eight years and the rise is expected to continue, a BBC Wales investigation has found.

Posted by lukeskywalker @ 10:21 AM 2 Comments

CGT is a fiasco, of inept bad planning, etc

Fresh Business Thinking: Darling faces pressure on CGT changes

Slightly off-beat but BTL are not the only ones affected. "The tax system for small businesses in the UK is becoming significantly less competitive. The changes to capital gains tax announced in the 2007 pre-budget report will further undermine the attractiveness of the UK as a place to create and grow a business," the ESM said in today's report. By pre-announcing the CGT Darling & GBH have engineerred a property price crash when BTL's sell-up all together in April. >>> But its small business that will really suffer and since most people are either the proprietors or the employees of SME's, we are really looking at the edge of a recession here. <<<

Posted by fahrenheit451 @ 10:20 AM 9 Comments

Big layoffs ahead in the City

Times: Wary investors desert London IPOs

The outlook for London in the fourth quarter of this year is looking gloomy, with a number of companies having already postponed their plans to float in recent weeks. If uncertainties continue around the credit crunch and access to capital remains difficult, we are unlikely to see a marked shift in deal activity in the UK until the first half of 2008.

Posted by confused76 @ 10:03 AM 0 Comments

Three and counting!!

Times: Investors take fright with Paragon linked to new Rock horror show

After Victoria Mortgage and On The Rock, this is the turn of Paragon. Just want to mention the former Paragon company had to wind up its business in 1992 following the housing slump. That makes Paragon an excellent weather vane to judge present and future housing market trends.

Posted by confused76 @ 09:59 AM 2 Comments

Interest rates and oil prices

Times Online: Will soaring oil pump up inflation?

"IT is not often you get a combination of low inflation and record oil prices but that is what we have had in recent days. Not only that, but the Bank of Englands monetary policy committee (MPC) considered cutting interest rates earlier this month. Whats going on?"

Posted by peter @ 09:41 AM 0 Comments

We knew all this already

The Telegraph: German team damn UK economic 'miracle' as a sham

"From 2001 to 2006, a total of 256bn in equity was extracted from UK property values in this way. Dependent as it is on rising house prices, housing equity withdrawl cannot continue to prop up our consumer spending at its current level," said the report.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:19 AM 9 Comments

Official 16% inflation on food at Tesco - CPI just keeps falling! CPI figures are a con and a national scandal: WHERE ARE THE PRESS ON THIS?

Telegraph: Supermarkets 'raise food bill by 750 a year'

In recent weeks, some of the most dramatic signs of food inflation have hit supermarket shelves. According to price comparison website mySupermarket.com, the three biggest supermarkets Tesco, Asda and Sainsbury's are charging their shoppers 12 per cent more on average for a basket of 25 different goods compared with last year. Tesco has increased its prices by 16 per cent in the past year. A kilo of peas has gone up from 1.19 to 1.79 at Tesco, a dozen eggs at Sainsbury's has leapt from 1.62 to 2.35, while Asda has increased the price of its orange juice from 73 pence a litre to 88 pence.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:07 AM 13 Comments

There are concerns that a $75bn (37bn) rescue operation put together by US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to stabilise the sub-prime market is intended to mask the scale of the crisis.

telegraph.co.uk: new credit crunch looms

Fresh turmoil in the global debt markets has set off sharp falls in commodity prices and high-risk assets as investors scrambled for safety. The dollar soared as US investors liquidated foreign holdings, ending at $1.4129 against the euro and 2.0276 against the pound, in one of the most dramatic currency moves this year. Rescue plan: Henry Paulson aimed to stabilise the sub-prime market Libor spreads in Europe's interbank market jumped to 64 basis points, roughly the level that set off the credit crisis last summer and prompted a liquidity rescue by the European Central Bank. The iTraxx Crossover index that measures spreads on corporate bonds has jumped 100 basis since last week to 364 yesterday.

Posted by chris @ 08:22 AM 4 Comments

1yr in Oil prices plotted against most major currencies.

The Oil Drum: Europe: Oil Prices around the World: Do Exchange Rates Matter?

High oil prices will feed into inflation, causing interest rates to rise and asset (house) prices to fall. Many have suggested that the current bout of high prices is purely the result of a weaker dollar (given that oil is priced in dollars). This is a point that I have countered, but this link does the job far better, plotting the cost of oil against a number of major currencies. The picture it paints is that currency has little to do with the current bull market and all eyes are on supply and fear of it. If so, this is a structural or cyclical issue that will not simply go away, I personally think its a structural one, traders aware that peak oil is upon us, but that debate will only be solved a few years after the event when trends become clear.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 07:55 AM 6 Comments

Monday, October 22, 2007

Can Northern Ireland handle the truth from a VI?

Belfast Telegraph: Hype failing to convince buyers as housing market looks set for fall

I've been leafing through the local property papers on a regular basis, trying to gauge the neighbourhood mood and it seems to me that the housing market in my area has become distinctly chilly. by Stephen King managing director of economics at HSBC

Posted by belfast boy @ 11:11 PM 0 Comments

Same news from across the channel

Bloomberg: Danish House-Price Growth Slows for Fifth Quarter

Danish house-price growth slowed for a fifth consecutive quarter in the three months through September, suggesting higher interest rates and slower economic growth are crimping demand for housing.

Posted by alan @ 07:09 PM 2 Comments

Argentina - Another Economic Miracle Built on Dodgy Statistics

BBC News: Will Cristina head off another crisis?

Most Argentinians simply don't believe official figures published by the national statistics office, an independent report produced recently by five economists warned official statistics were being "manipulated", and this had led to a "great uncertainty" about the true health of the economy. It's about time we in the UK had an 'independent' report perhaps the German team below could investigate!

Posted by enuii @ 07:08 PM 0 Comments

Change in outlook and perceptions

Tgraph: German team damn UK economic 'miracle' as a sham

This is a damning report, and we all know it is true. "Just as private households have been living beyond their means, so has the state. The expansion of the public sector artificially inflates GDP growth data: it cannot continue much longer." "The economy has in effect been been 'bailed out' by housing inflation and debt,"

Posted by confused76 @ 06:27 PM 15 Comments

A few smart strategies..

Times Online: How to profit from a downturn

Some smart tips on how to capitalize on the downturn on the houssing market

Posted by peter @ 05:34 PM 0 Comments

'A false sense of wealth'

The Telegraph: German team damn UK economic 'miracle' as a sham

Britain's economic resurgence over the last fifteen years has been driven by record levels of household debt and a public spending spree that cannot continue, according a German-led team of economists.

Posted by timelash @ 05:08 PM 0 Comments

Media tune has now changed: "Snap the bargain!"

Times: Cash is king in a buyers market

This article is a funny nonsense "there are tales of individual sellers having to settle for less. Nevertheless, at this rate, 2008 is shaping up to be the best year for more than a decade to be buying a house,particularly if the Bank of England meets predictions of a lower Bank rate - and if you dont have to sell at the same time." but entertaining. The crash is shaping up!! "The trick is to organise your finances so that you are in a position to pounce when you reckon you have come across the unbeatable deal. Cash is fast becoming king once more, even if that does mean knocking on the door of the Bank of Mum and Dad." what a TOSH!!

Posted by confused76 @ 04:56 PM 1 Comments

Spin spin spin

Mirror: Is your house price about to plummet?

Nick Webster asked the experts what we can expect in the next 12 months... Yes says JASMINE BIRTLES, from moneymagpie.com and presenter of Homes Under The Hammer. "It's looking likely that we'll have a house-price crash next year. Certainly we will have a slowdown in prices and that has already started. Repossessions have been rising this year and are likely to rocket as people with poor credit ratings and little equity in their homes are refused a new mortgage when their current fixed rate finishes."

Posted by confused76 @ 04:44 PM 2 Comments

High oil prices can only put further downward pressure on house prices.

Money week: Oil & Housing: A Volatile Combination

Explores some interesting relationships between oil and housing, such as suggesting that the credit crunch caused by sub-prime will increase the cost of fuel by increasing the credit costs to fuel speculators, whilst high oil further reduces house prices by pushing up inflation, thus pushing up interest rates. Sounds like a race to the bottom to me.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 04:39 PM 0 Comments

This is great news, this is fantastic. End of the road for John Heron!!

MoneyMarket: Paragon could be forced to run its business down, says analyst KB&W

Specialist buy-to-let lender Paragon could be forced to run its business down if no new funding appears by quarter two 2008, says a report by investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

Posted by confused76 @ 03:22 PM 0 Comments

Where do these numbers come from?

Property Snake: Event History

Not wishing to put the mockers on all this talk of the ensuing crash, believe me I am keeping my fingers crossed for a 30% drop over the next few years. Where exactly does Propertysnake get these numbers from - they go up and down faster than a tarts knickers as my Grandpa used to say? Should we believe them?

Posted by rubberneck @ 02:44 PM 10 Comments

BTL repossessions, ah ahah ahhah ahhah

Tgraph: Over-sold, over-rated and over here

Andy Verity is the BBC journalist hero who s had the guts to unmask the housing market. Watch the second episode this week. "American-owned sub-prime mortgage lenders have been funding mortgage rescue schemes in the UK leaving people homeless when the schemes collapse. These schemes which offer people a means of escaping their mortgage debts are typically run by ordinary investors. They have been buying buy-to-let properties and building empires, some with the help of sub-prime lenders. But now, as a new BBC2 TV series, The Truth About Property, reveals, a growing number of the schemes are collapsing because the borrowers cannot afford to keep up the mortgage payments leaving their tenants facing the consequences when the properties are repossessed." Uaah ahhah ahhah uuuahhhah

Posted by confused76 @ 01:45 PM 17 Comments

Big Banks confess to lax lending practices

Times Online: Big banks accept blame for global credit turmoil

Are big banks only to be blame for the current global situation? "The worlds big investment banks accepted collective blame yesterday for lax lending and weak practices that triggered the present global credit market turmoil"

Posted by peter @ 11:07 AM 4 Comments

Horses...stable door...bolted!?!

BBC: Lenders reject Darling's attack

"Lenders do need to be clear when they are lending money, that... someone can afford to meet the repayments and they have not overstretched themselves." You couldn't make this stuff up!

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:46 AM 7 Comments

London shares slide...

Times Online: Market turmoil sends London stocks plummeting

Northern Rock, Britis Energy shares plunged this morning following bad Friday news from USA and Asia. Seems that global credit crunch is not over yet."The value of Britains biggest companies plunged this morning with 114 points wiped from the FTSE 100 as investors reacted to growing signs of global market turmoil."

Posted by peter @ 09:27 AM 2 Comments

The Bigger Picture Is, Always Was . . . Oil

The Guardian: Steep Decline In Oil Production Brings Risk of War & Unrest

The Energy Watch Group bases its findings on audited figures for oil production and consumption rates - not on projections of possible future discoveries. Hint: there haven't been very many.Once the markets start to factor in the ramifications of our transition from the oil age (and most of the things we make require oil as a basic raw material, in one form or another) to an as yet unknown future, expect the sort of turmoil that will make 1929 (when all the resources were actually still in place, ready to be used!) seem benign. Welcome to the new paradigm. Start making your plans.

Posted by lierbag @ 08:58 AM 2 Comments

Ah ah ahhhha hahahha ha hha aha ha hahah a ahhaha hahahh

BBC Spinmasters: Credit crunch 'to hit UK growth'

"The credit crunch is also expected to raise the interest rates that banks offer to mortgage customers, but the Item Club does not expect that to lead to a serious correction in house prices. The real victims will be among formerly fast-growing parts of the financial sector, which may be a good thing, according to the Item Club's Peter Spencer. "Having to reverse gear may not be such a bad thing," he said. The report cites over-exposed hedge funds, private equity businesses and property buyers who have borrowed a very high proportion of the value of their properties as groups most likely to be hit" Item Club, stop please ahah ahahh my sides are aching, stoooooppp ah ah

Posted by confused76 @ 12:46 AM 5 Comments

Anatole, Anatole, Anatole!

Times: Black clouds loom on horizon after years of plenty

"For the first time in 15 years, I am seriously worried about the outlook for the British economy, the housing market and sterling" Here we go. Sensible comments. It is basic common wisdom and nothing new, but you need courage to speak the truth in the media nowadays! Well done Anatole! Now, I could have written the same piece six months ago. But hey who cares, happy that the tide has turned eventually!

Posted by confused76 @ 12:35 AM 9 Comments

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Rude health, rude what? stop the spin! an iperinflated market is crashing!

Times: Its dire in the shires

After years of rude health, the country-house market is taking a battering. Allison and Andrew Johnson have just slashed 55,000 off the asking price of their Queen Anne country house in Staffordshire. Such a turnaround in the market has led Bidwells, a specialist rural agency in the east of England, to slash its price-growth forecast for 2007 by half, to 4%. It says prices of rural properties in Suffolk, Essex and Cambridgeshire have all dropped by as much as 3.9% since the summer. YIEEPPIEEEEEEEEEE!!!

Posted by confused76 @ 08:38 PM 8 Comments

Major UK banks seek emergency funding in the US

Telegraph: Barclays and RBS line up Fed for 15bn

Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland have lined up emergency funds of up to $30bn (15bn) from the US Federal Reserve to bail out American clients (yeah right!) caught up in the global credit crunch. Barclays has been given permission to borrow up to $20bn through the facility, while RBS can borrow up to $10bn. The banks would have to put up assets as collateral with the Fed to gain access to the cash.

Posted by uncle chris @ 08:28 PM 7 Comments

Economy is strong, there are no triggers, UK property can defeat gravity... forever!

Times: Housing will avoid crash

Item does not believe that the tighter lending conditions for homebuyers will lead to a serious correction in UK house prices, the report says. With the labour market strong, it is unlikely there will be a major housing recession. Of course not, house prices have been underpinned by hard cash savings of the UK households. We do not have 2tn in debt and UK public finances are not in the red. And of course interest rates have peaked and can only go down. Only problem, David has been saying that for 2 years and proven wrong every time. Personal debt has soared, mortgage rates have DOUBLED since 2004 and government spending is now a national emergency. Do not understand how this charlatan can still write in the Times.

Posted by confused76 @ 07:23 PM 4 Comments

What on Earth is Cameron thinking ???

Daily Mail: Tories hire queen of property TV Kirstie Allsopp to liven up policy

Property expert Kirstie "Eat my Hat" Allsopp is to use her specialist knowledge to lead a review by David Cameron into how buying and selling property could be simpified. The Location, Location, Location presenter is the latest celebrity to be hired by politicians keen on adding some glamour to their policies.

Posted by uncle chris @ 07:14 PM 20 Comments

A vast number of clippings on the credit crisis from the Canadian thread of theoildrum.

TheOilDrum.com: Canada: The Finance Round-Up:

October 17th 2007

Posted by planning4acrash @ 06:22 PM 0 Comments

The tune at the Times has definitely changed. Now prices will stay flat, but do you believe that?

Times: House pricesto stay flat for years

Fionnuala Earley, the group economist at Nationwide, said: As a result of slower economic growth and the impact of the credit crunch, we now think house-price inflation will be around 0% and there could be falls on an annual basis in some areas. We could then see a few years of flat growth. Can you believe that? soft landing like a jet plane that has run out of fuel. How about the one million BTLosers running for the exit?

Posted by confused76 @ 05:19 PM 3 Comments

This won't help!

BBC News: Big share falls feared on Monday

There are fears of sharp falls on European stock markets on Monday after Friday's hefty falls on Wall Street.

Posted by garyb @ 04:02 PM 3 Comments

The country-house market is losing its ground..

Times Online: Its dire in the shires

"The market for country houses alongside that in prime central London has been one of the most buoyant sectors of the British housing market in the past few years. Now, inevitably perhaps, it seems to be falling victim to the loss of confidence caused by the global credit crunch."

Posted by peter @ 03:47 PM 0 Comments

Theory behind a market fall

www.nakedcapitalism.com: Marc Faber of Liquidity, Leverage & Bubbles

This article by Marc Faber, although a few months old, provides the key information behind why house prices may fall. Faber explains that it is the financial flows, and not the real economy, that is determining asset prices. And he sees the money dynamic as unsustainable.

Posted by hotfoot @ 02:07 PM 0 Comments

Disaster looms

FT: IMF failure could cause global economic crisis

Problems to come.

Posted by david simmonds @ 01:32 PM 0 Comments

Affordable New Homes Show, what a joke

Guardian: Behind closed doors...

Welcome to 'affordable' Britain, 2007. All the homes pictured in our gallery were offered to us at the Affordable New Homes Show, aimed at key workers. All have price tags above 250,000 - except one bargain we found in Tilbury, Essex

Posted by nzyme @ 01:14 PM 0 Comments

Journalistic Confusion at the Top of the Market?

The Independant: House prices ready to stall, experts warn

This must rank as one of the worst pieces of journalism on the subject yet, a few little pieces on information thrown into the pot and spewed into the written word that concludes nothing. Its a bit like a roller coaster ride where everyone stops talking just before the top of the first big drop, other interesting point to note is the journo's email addresses as they appear to be freelancers padding column inches.

Posted by enuii @ 12:54 PM 5 Comments

Before it's too late

Times: Cash in on your biggest asset

Martin Kinney was staggered when an estate agent valued the six-bedroom house in Wimbledon, south-westLondon, where he has lived with his family for 31 years. He and his wife, Liz, 63, had just spent 35,000 doing it up and were curious as to what it would fetch. The answer was 2.75m quite a leap from the 48,000 they paid for it. We were surprised that it had gone up so much, says Martin, 68, a retired chartered accountant. So we just thought, Lets get on with it and do it.

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:51 PM 7 Comments

Lessons from across the pond

The Observer: How the roof fell in on America's property gamblers

If you want to know if Britain is heading for a housing market crash, just take a look at what has become of the American market. Over the past two decades it has become less a means of securing an place to live and more of get-rich-quick speculation. Since the 1990s many American homeowners have used their houses like virtual ATMs, withdrawing wads of cash every time prices rose another ten or twenty thousand dollars. Flipping became a national pastime.

Posted by little professor @ 12:07 PM 4 Comments

A market at turning point?

observer guardian: Housing market on the edge

"average home now worth an extraordinary nine times average earnings, and millions of borrowers facing rising repayments as their fixed-rate mortgage deals end"

Posted by djlammi @ 11:38 AM 0 Comments

I don't know what to say, really

More borrowing on the sly by the big UK banks, what's up folks need a loan on the quite, dont ask the BOE for though, the fed and the EU central bank, can keep the public in the dark.

Telegraph: Barclays and RBS line up Fed for 15bn

How does one clean up a mess by sweeping the dirt under the carpet, it is impossible to avoid a serious repricing of assets both stocks and housing. Crash coming right up in stocks this Monday.

Posted by lee @ 11:17 AM 0 Comments

sounds like an idea brown could copy!

Yahoo: Bangladesh bars foreigners from working beyond 5 years

lol lol lol.... i think this is one idea brown should copy... so in his eyes less immigrants = lower house prices...lol..lol..lol

Posted by mark @ 10:55 AM 0 Comments

Price to stagnate?

Guardian: Property prices not immune to disaster

"Demand is only meaningful if it is backed up by readiness and ability to purchase. I would quite like a townhouse in Belgravia, but that does not constitute demand, because I'm not rich enough. Even if I were able to buy, I might be less willing, since the prospect of making a large gain has receded."

Posted by confused76 @ 10:31 AM 5 Comments

Left wing spin but interesting

The Socialist 4 October 2007: Banking turmoil continues

A lot of truth in this article from The Socialist, banking worldwide in trouble. Well worth reading.

Posted by acetip @ 09:01 AM 0 Comments

Another article demolishing the supply & demand myth..

The Observer: Property prices not immune to disaster

When writing a recipe for a housing downturn, the ingredients have to include a big slowdown in the economy, increased unemployment and rising interest rates - don't they? Not necessarily. The conventional view is that house prices here have remained strong while markets in other countries, notably the US, have been falling like ninepins, because of the strength of the economy here coupled with the chronic shortage of supply on a small island.

Posted by thirdwave @ 02:30 AM 0 Comments

Nationwide still optimistic - predict flat year for houses in 2008

The Times: House prices to stay flat for several years

Still the worm is turning; if one of the principal cheerleaders for house prices predicts a flat year, liklihood is sustained falls....

Posted by andyh @ 02:30 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Not quite sure this is right. When unemployment rises we will have serious problems

Tgraph: UK 'will swell to 75m' as migrants raise births

"The impact of an additional 15 million people would obviously be considerable: economic, environmental, social and ethnic"The absent-minded commitment into which we have drifted, to house a further 15 million people, must be the biggest unintended consequence of government policy of almost any century. As it is by no means unavoidable, being almost entirely dependent upon continued immigration, it might be thought worthy of discussion. In official circles, there has been none." But is really anyone at the steering wheel??

Posted by confused76 @ 10:28 PM 7 Comments

no money, too many debts, now no water.

CNN: Parched Georgia declares drought emergency

I am pretty sure things like this will only pull the states further down..., put more strain on a dead economy

Posted by mark @ 07:10 PM 0 Comments

Listen to John Heron!

MortgageIntroducer: New build speculation is not buy-to-let

"John Heron looks at the differences between new build and buy-to-let and why the latter will continue to flourish. Established investors and that often means people whove been in the industry for a decade or more know pretty accurately what types of home will appeal to each type of tenant, where they want to live and how much they are prepared to pay. They also have a good idea of the number of other landlords with similar properties, so they can avoid being in a market that is swamped by over-supply." This is a cr@p!

Posted by confused76 @ 05:47 PM 2 Comments

Looks like prices are melting down in London

Primelocation: Prime London sale and rental prices decline for the second consecutive month, while prime country property prices remain flat.

When even property websites admit there is a problem - its time to bale out.

Posted by mike livingstone @ 05:12 PM 7 Comments

What planet are they on???

Assetz: House prices to rise by 27 - 40% over next 5 years

The average house price will rise to 302k in the next five years. This is equivalent to 7% p.a. The IMF recently stated UK property was overpriced by 40%; however we all know what would happen if prices dropped by this much - there simply wouldn't be enough property to go around. The rules of supply and demand would dictate that it is impossible for prices to fall to this low level before increased demand stabilizes prices. Property is not overvalued and we are likely to see significant growth in the years to come driven by the inability of housebuilders to build enough property due to planning restrictions.

Posted by little professor @ 05:03 PM 22 Comments

Why the Fed is corrupt

Safe Haven: America's Forgotten War Against the Central Banks

A note issued by a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve Note, is bank currency. These notes are given to the government in exchange for an interest-bearing government bond. The primary means to pay for the interest on these bonds is to borrow more bank notes, thus beginning a vicious cycle that ultimately ends with the complete destruction of the currency and bankruptcy of the nation. History is replete with such occurrences.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 04:31 PM 2 Comments

Quantity, not Quality

Watford Observer: Refunds for faulty Barratts flats

Prospective homeowners who bought flats in a town centre development have been offered their money back following substandard construction work. Building work on the Queensgate development, which will comprise of 91 flats, in Loates Lane, has stalled after construction firm Barratts took over the project from its sister company Kingsoak.

Posted by su @ 03:33 PM 2 Comments

Spin of a Landbitch: impact of Darling's budget for the BTL

Times: Tales of a landlady: Tax reforms

Spin, spin, spin. This bit*h did not understand consequence of the abolition of taper relief is short-term profiteering and market destabilization. "At the moment, when you come to sell your investment property, you could pay as much as 40% of the profits to the taxman. Thanks to what is known as taper relief, this can eventually fall to the equivalent of 24% (if you are a higher-rate taxpayer) or 12% (if you pay tax at the basic rate), but only if you keep the place for 10 years or more." There will be a glut of properties on the market before April, the millions btl'ers who are on 12% rate now.

Posted by confused76 @ 03:26 PM 2 Comments

Millions of Brits worry and lie about debts, says Fool.co.uk

London Stock exchange: Millions of Brits worry and lie about debts, says Fool.co.uk

One in five Brits "want to disappear" because of their financial situation, revealed a study by financial comparison site Fool.co.uk.

Posted by landedgentry @ 11:55 AM 0 Comments

If rising oil prices do not cause inflation, then what does?

The Market Oracle: US Inflation Understated in Official Statistics - Prices are the Cart, Money Supply is the Horse

Interesting article illustrating that fiddling of Inflation statistics is rampant in Western Economies, worth reading through as plenty of parallelisms can be drawn with the UK.

Posted by enuii @ 10:27 AM 3 Comments

US bank slump goes on

The Times: Business Article

This is becoming old news....

Posted by orwell @ 10:26 AM 2 Comments

Credit running out for the borrowers

thisismoney: Lenders pulling mortgages at last minute

Homebuyers are losing deposits worth thousands of pounds as lenders try to wriggle out of mortgage offers between exchange and completion. Convex claimed 10% of property deals in the past month had experienced problems with the lender between exchange and completion. The firm said it had never before experienced such widespread problems.

Posted by uncle chris @ 09:54 AM 8 Comments

Concerns about recession hit US markets

Telegraph: Wall St caught in a perfect storm

The Dow Jones plunged almost 370 points in a perfect storm of surging oil costs, a sliding dollar, and fresh fears of paralysis in the credit markets. Twenty years to the day since Black Monday, when the Dow slumped 508 points in a day, Wall Street was rocked by rumours of defaults and heightened fears that the US economy may be heading for a recession.

Posted by uncle chris @ 09:43 AM 0 Comments

Friday, October 19, 2007

Some go extreme length to put a spin on figures!!

aboutproperty: Halifax: House prices up 0.9 per cent

"Prices in Northern Ireland have increased by 29.1 per cent in the previous twelve months however prices in the region are down 3.2 per cent in the three months." Sounds like it s crashing to me!

Posted by confused76 @ 11:02 PM 6 Comments

Here comes the apocalypse, no more beer money.

BBC News: House prices blamed as pub closes

"It is unfortunate, but the pub trade generally has declined - especially in this area," he said. "With the very high cost of living, there is not much money left over at the end of the month for beer."

Posted by angel r louzan @ 09:36 PM 7 Comments

But Applesauce still remains...

BBC News: Northern Rock Chairman Steps Down

Northern Rock chairman Matt Ridley has stepped down over his role in the bank's near collapse last month.

Posted by dugmug @ 04:48 PM 0 Comments

Northern Rock's problems only going to get worse

Financial Times: Northern Rocks BoE debt hits 16bn

Last sentance caught my attention, although I'm sure people will make comments about the rest of the article: "Northern Rock appeared to classify some of the underpayments in its mortgage book as payment holidays rather than arrears, Mr Chen said."

Posted by night @ 04:10 PM 8 Comments

Rat infested filthy smelly hole, on the up; late

Southend Echo: Boom town Westcliff

Charming parts of Essex still on the rise. I wouldn't buy here four years ago on grounds of 'how much?', 'for THAT!?'. But more fool me. Its amazing what people will buy

Posted by robh @ 03:30 PM 3 Comments

More detail to add to earlier posting from Firstrung...

NAEA: Quiet September for UK Housing Market

NAEA president, Stewart Lilly, comments: The survey this month has been characterised by extremes, from unusually high stock levels to unusually low buyer levels." Now that's what I call supply and demand!

Posted by dugmug @ 03:28 PM 8 Comments

I'm changing my predictions, $120/barrel before any profit taking.

Yahoo: Oil prices hit record high $90.07

More of the same. But this psychological barrier, once breached could usher the beginning rather than the end of the bull market

Posted by planning4acrash @ 03:00 PM 2 Comments

Is Smoking Ban Good for You?

Times Online: Smoking ban: a drag on prices?

If you live near a pub, your property is worth 50K less than similar one somewhere else

Posted by peter @ 02:36 PM 0 Comments

40% slump in mortgage offers:fact not fiction!

citywire.co.uk: mortgage offers slump 40%

unbelievable ........this is gonna have a dramatic effect on the housing market especially when it seems half the population are bad credit risks!according to the papers

Posted by taffee @ 12:41 PM 9 Comments

AA warns motorists of oil price climb

Times Online: AA warns of more misery as diesel hits 1 a litre

The surge in oil prices means that we are spending daily 8mln more than at the beginning of this year."The motoring group says that diesel prices will continue to rise as record oil prices feed through to petrol forecourts across Britain"

Posted by peter @ 12:37 PM 1 Comments

Any more evidence needed that house prices are unaffordable therefore unsustainable?

Firstrung: First time buyers reach recorded lows at 8.8% of the market

First time buyers reduced their share of the market in September for the second month running, down to 8.8% compared with 9.7% in August and 11.1% in September 2006. With buyers at all levels currently demonstrating caution, first timers proved to be no exception this September. Inflated house prices combined with the rising cost of moving continues to be a barrier to entry for many. Meanwhile confidence in the mortgage market has also been shaken and the NAEA has recently urged the Bank of England to help improve the situation by maintaining or dropping interest rates for the remainder of 2007.The good news for first time buyers is that with the current oversupply of one and two bedroom properties there is more choice at the lower end of the market, which can potentially be taken advantag

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:56 AM 1 Comments

House price crash the least of our worries?

Firstrung: FTSE100 has risen by 584% since October 19th 1987 - 'Black Monday'

19th October 2007 marks the 20th anniversary of 'Black Monday', the day world stockmarkets crashed. In a single day, the FTSE 100 share Index plummeted by 11%, wiping billions of pounds from the London stockmarket. Halifax Financial Services examines how the stockmarkets around the world have performed since Black Monday. New research from Halifax Financial Services shows that UK stock prices are, on average, currently more than three times (223%) higher than on Black Monday (19th October 1987). On Black Monday the FTSE Index fell from 2302 to 2052 - a fall of 11%.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:53 AM 0 Comments

From last night on BBC2

BBC: The Truth About Property: Episode 1

What a shocking and depressing state of affairs this country has been conned into.

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:43 AM 14 Comments

Easy come, easy go

Sky News: Britain In Debt As Mortgages Paid By Credit Cards

There is new evidence of Britain's mounting debt crisis, with more than a million households resorting to using credit cards to pay their mortgages. Experts are warning of an ever-spiralling maze of debt.

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:30 AM 13 Comments

The sheeple do like to bury their heads in the sand!

Reuters: Public remain confident in house price growth

Consumers remain confident that property prices will continue to rise despite evidence to the contrary, research shows. Almost two-thirds (62 percent) of consumers believe the housing market will continue to prosper, a poll of 1,004 adults commission by the Association of Investment Companies (AIC) reveals. That is despite signs that five interest rate hikes since last August are starting to cool the property market.

Posted by davethebox @ 10:28 AM 2 Comments

Just thought you should know

Timesonline: Crude Oil Prices 1861 - 2006 (FY2006 US Dollars)

During Desert Storm invasion of Kuwait, oil was at $36 per barrel. And people panicked then. Even during the Asian currency crisis, oil was at $16 / barrel. What do you think is on the cards for US and European economic growth.

Posted by lvmreader @ 10:09 AM 0 Comments

Needing $70bn a month just to keep the lights on isn't so smart.

FT.com: A more competitive dollar is good for America

The dollar has finally begun its long overdue correction. The dollars decline in recent weeks is just a prelude to the much more substantial fall needed to shrink the US current account deficit, running at a nearly $800bn annual rate, about 6 per cent of gross domestic product.

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:49 AM 1 Comments

Well, duh?!

Forbes: A Weak Dollar Is Bad For America

Martin Feldstein, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Reagan, wrote an article for the Financial Times this week, which outlines why he believes that a more "competitive" or weaker U.S. dollar is good for America. Even though I am a rock-ribbed Reagan Republican, I cannot overstate how strongly I believe that this opinion is incorrect. "Strong Dollar, Strong Currency" is more than a mantra for me since economic history indicates that no country has ever achieved greatness nor maintained it by debasing its currency.

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:32 AM 0 Comments

New Oil Price Hit and US interest rates.

Times Online: Forecourt prices set to rise as oil breaches $90

This is leading to another US interest rate cut, which will help push the dollar down to another record low."Oil hit a new record overnight on tensions in Turkey and a falling dollar. The AA says forecourt prices are set to go much higher"

Posted by peter @ 09:30 AM 0 Comments

The highest oil prcie in history was $104 per barrel in 1864 (infl adjusted)

Telegraph: Oil hits $90 for first time as dollar fuels rally

Considering that during the Asian crisis, oil was at $12-$14 per barrel, this is going to be an "interesting" next 12-18 months. Of course, we will see real inflation drop by 50%, since people don't really need oil for anything anyway.

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:24 AM 1 Comments

A surprise to who? The criminally insane?

Telegraph: BoA takes surprise credit crunch hit

What is it with these clowns? This "credit crisis" has been obvious to me (and many others) since at least 2003 (and in some cases before).

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:20 AM 6 Comments

This country's finances are being run by extras from the Muppet show!

Telegraph: Rock calls on extra 3bn crisis funding

Darling shot his bullets too early - should have saved the "money" for Barclays. That's right people, I call that Barclays is at danger of default. Expect a (shotgun) "merger" announcement imminently.

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:19 AM 4 Comments

Doh! Someone put this lame company out of it's misery!

Telegraph: Rock calls on extra 3bn crisis funding

Northern Rock tapped the Bank of England for a further 3bn this month, taking the total amount of emergency funding it has drawn to 16bn. Analysts believe the troubled lender will access at least another 5bn before the end of the year after the Bank revealed that Lloyds TSB had last month demanded 30bn to cover Northern Rock's obligations as a condition of a rescue takeover.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:09 AM 2 Comments

watch it

bbc: the truth about property

everything dicussed on this website now on tv just a little more diplomatic

Posted by seanb303 @ 08:32 AM 0 Comments

Remember the media made sugar shortage?

Independent: We are a nation of hysterics

Remember the sugar shortage of 75 that never should have been but was caused by the media reporting there MAY be a shortage thus causing the public to panic and actually created a shortage. So the media was right afterall as they created the proof they needed for their breaking news! In the first weeks of 1975, British consumers faced with a sugar shortage regularly ransacked their local grocery stores. There were frequent accusations that some shoppers were hoarding the newly-prized foodstuff, stuffing their larders with supplies as if the country had returned to wartime conditions. The hoarders probably consoled themselves with the thought that it was better to be safe than sorry. So let's hope that the media don't start forecasting a housing crash!!!!!!

Posted by bnaz @ 08:07 AM 0 Comments

Are the British also frogs?

Lew Rockwell: The Boiling Frog Syndrome

I aIways thought of the French as being frogs, but now I read that the USA is full of frogs being boiled to death! Are we British millions of frogs in our expensive houses feeling the temperature rise?

Posted by bnaz @ 07:52 AM 0 Comments

Thursday, October 18, 2007

A few factors to consider

Times Online: Opening bids: Why the Government must do something about Britains empty properties

Sub-prime slime is oozing out everywhere from the US -where will it spread next?

Posted by peter @ 09:41 PM 23 Comments

Huh? No major changes in Credit Card delinquencies? Really?

Forbes: JPMorgan Comes Through, But Concerns Linger

"We do expect charge-offs to go up this quarter," said JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon in a conference call with reporters.So far, the company has benefited greatly since the Fed lowered rates: Results improved by $454 million from the widening of its credit spreads.Its provision for credit losses was $1.79 billion, and including credit card securitization, managed credit loss provisions came to $2.36 billion. JPMorgan's credit-loss provisions between January and September this year have totaled $4.32 billion, more than double the $2.14 billion in provisions it made in the first nine months of 2006. Dimon noted that while home equity loan delinquencies and charge-offs are rising, there were no major changes in delinquencies of other products like auto loans and credit cards

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:06 PM 1 Comments

Holy Macaroni

CNN: Oil finishes at all-time high above $89

This combines with the greenback falling to a new low against the Euro, but only part of this rise can be attributed to a fall in the dollar because the Euro has only risen about 2% against the dollar since about mid September, yet oil has risen by about 10% in the same period, so this has more about supply and fear of it than a falling greenback. I think that $100 a barrel will occur very soon, and it should be remembered that an inflation adjusted rate of $90-95 triggered recession in the US in the '80's, and whatever anybody says, that will effect us. The US doesn't go down without kicking and screaming and without bringing down others with it.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 08:56 PM 5 Comments

30% Rise in milk prices! Surely this will nudge CPI from it's 1.8% slumber?

Bloomberg: Nestle Pricing Allays Higher Milk Costs; Hershey Profit Falls

Nestle SA said it withstood soaring dairy costs by raising prices for Dreyer's ice cream and nutritional food. Hershey Co., focused on the less lucrative milk chocolate Nestle is moving away from, reported profit fell. ***Nestle said it will use cheaper packaging and ingredients to compensate for the cost of milk, which the company says will rise more than 30 percent this year. *** BOING! 30%

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:03 PM 8 Comments

anyone want to set this guy straight

Yahoo: Media hype about a slump

This guy is a prat, so comeon lets set him right..

Posted by mark @ 04:43 PM 3 Comments

Crisis in the sub-prime market drags on banks

Times Online: Bank of America plunges as credit crisis bites

Bank of America profits suffer from crisis in the sub-prime market: "Bank of America today admitted profits from corporate and investment banking fell 93 per cent from $1.43 billion (698.2 million) to just $100 million"

Posted by peter @ 04:19 PM 1 Comments

It's a race to the bottom!!

Bloomberg: Dollar Falls to Record Low Against Euro on Growth, Fed Outlook

The dollar fell to a record low against the euro after profit at the second-largest U.S. bank fell more than forecast because of trading losses, raising speculation the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs again. ``The dollar should be weaker,'' said Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy for the Global Markets group in Boston at Bank of New York Mellon, the world's largest custodian bank with more than $20 trillion in assets under administration. ``There will be some more pain coming from'' the housing sector.

Posted by dr. k @ 04:04 PM 0 Comments

This is all becoming predictable!

Bloomberg: Bank of America Earnings Drop on Loan Writedowns

Bank of America took a larger than expected hit in Q3 due to write downs and problems in the motgage backed securities sector. There are fears that the effects of these write downs will linger on into Q4 and Q1/08. As I understand it, US banks cultivated the mortgage fraud and exported it to Europe....surely the UK banks must be glowing with some toxic waste!! ?? Q3 results for British banks should make for interesting reading.

Posted by dr. k @ 04:01 PM 0 Comments

Food inflation on its way

Market Oracle: USDA Drops an Agricultural Bombshell!

"Sean Brodrick writes: The USDA dropped a bombshell last week reporting that U.S. wheat stockpiles may fall to the lowest level in 59 years! As disturbing as that is, it is 100% bullish for grain prices, especially given soaring worldwide demand for agricultural products."

"Global stockpiles have already fallen to 26-year lows. World stocks of grain that is, the food held in reserve for times of emergency are now sufficient for just over 50 days. This is already lighting a fire under prices on your grocer's shelves. But if you think you've seen high prices, just wait you ain't seen nothin' yet."

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 02:22 PM 7 Comments

HIPS continue to affect the market

Times Online: The property market: October 14, 2007

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors claims that 73% of its members report a drop in homes sale with 3+ bedrooms.

Posted by peter @ 01:25 PM 0 Comments

Evan analysis of IMF report

BBC: UK house prices 'at risk'

Evan is so blase about the fact so many people have been conned to pay over the odds mortgages for over priced property for the last 5-10 years.

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:21 PM 6 Comments

Maybe they are correct

BBC News: Property viewed 'safer than cash'

A 200K property will only fall to around 80-100K. 200K in the bank that goes bust will return you 35K under the current bail-out scheme

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:10 PM 11 Comments

Radio 1 running with this story today

BBC Radio 1: New mortgage fears

Newsbeat's found out growing numbers of people face losing their homes after taking out massive loans. So-called 'sub-prime' mortgages see people lent up to ten times their salary. 2000 homes are repossessed in the UK every month.

Posted by scumbag @ 12:55 PM 0 Comments

The poll took place in the aftermath of the Northern Rock crisis, the first run on a British bank in nearly 150 years.

BBC News: Property viewed 'safer than cash'

Asked which they thought was a safer investment at the moment, 53% of those surveyed said buying property was safer than cash. That belief is directly at odds with the view accepted by the overwhelming majority of investment professionals.

Posted by disillusioned @ 12:35 PM 0 Comments

End of Global Growth?

Times Online: Turmoil could cause a global credit crunch, IMF warns

"The world economy remains at serious risk of suffering deeper turmoil in financial markets that could trigger a severe global downturn, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said yesterday, as it sharply cut forecast growth in key economies next year." Simon Johnson, the IMFs chief economist insits: "The world economy has entered an uncertain and potentially difficult period. The financial turmoil of August and September threatens to derail what has been an excellent half decade of growth.

Posted by peter @ 11:46 AM 3 Comments

Today CML, yesterday IMF...

Times Online: New mortgage approvals plummet by 12%

"The rate of new UK mortgages being granted plunged by 12 per cent during September, adding to growing evidence that the booming housing market is finally running out of steam." Another warning after yesterday's announcement from IMF, that housing market was heading for a crash...

Posted by peter @ 11:30 AM 1 Comments

Oh my God!

Mail: Chancellor's warning to homeowners as IMF predicts devastating crash

"In an exclusive interview with the Daily Mail, Alistair Darling said banks and building societies must be more responsible with their lending." Ah aha ahaha hahhah ahaha ahahhah a hhhha hahahah ahhhh ahahhh hahhhah ahhhhhha... ahah ahhahh ahhahah. And look at the reader comments

Posted by confused76 @ 11:17 AM 28 Comments

Shanghai Composite Index explodes

Safe Haven: A Rare "Double Event"

I am interested in the second half of this article. Look at the Shanghai Composite Index graph. It has passed 6000. Back in the summer when it was 4000, I thought it had the capacity to double. There can only be 3-6 months left in this vertical lift-off.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:14 AM 1 Comments

Rising loan to values could trigger BTL panic selling

MoneyWeek: Could this be the ruin of the buy-to-letters?

One thing all buy to let investors must remember is this: property can turn nasty fast. And when it does, there's one little covenant in their mortgage agreement that could prompt panic selling...

Posted by mary @ 11:13 AM 17 Comments

40% of Mystery ..or Bubble

Times Online: Misery for the over-extended and over-indebted

The average price for a house has surged from 68,777 to 198,898 since 1997. The gurus of the International Monetary Fund contend that only 60 per cent of this increase can be explained by rising incomes and other fundamentals. The other 40 per cent is a mystery.

Posted by peter @ 11:05 AM 0 Comments

Soaring inflation across Central and Eastern Europe

The Telegraph: Eastern Europe to reap its own subprime crisis

Soaring inflation across Central and Eastern Europe has begun to derail the region's booming economy, setting off alarms bells at the IMF and raising the risk of a monetary crunch.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:55 AM 0 Comments

Oh dear, oh dear - inflation needs to go up again

BBC: Retail sales strongest since 2004

UK retail sales rose by the strongest annual rate in three years in September, official figures show. The Office for "Notional" Statistics (ONS) said sales were up 6.3% from the same month a year earlier, the biggest gain since September 2004. Sales increased 0.6% from August, above analysts' expectations of a 0.1% rise.

Posted by uncle chris @ 10:52 AM 4 Comments

If only you had a crystal ball!


This is a video on Youtube worth watching. The ghost of Christmas future. And there's more!

Posted by bnaz @ 10:24 AM 0 Comments

Test your knowledge of property prices with this guess the house price quiz.

BBC News: The Truth about Property quiz

8 questions about how much you think each property is worth. (Plug for the new show, starting on Thursday 18 October, 2000 BST on BBC Two.)

Posted by disillusioned @ 10:18 AM 2 Comments

Sky News Jump On The Bandwagon

SKY NEWS: Stranger Danger For First-Time Buyers

First-time buyers are teaming up with people they hardly know to get onto the housing ladder. 'Many arrangements break down'One in five who bought their first home with someone other than their spouse admitted they had known the person for less than 12 months, says Skipton Building Society. OOPS! What has my son done?

Posted by bnaz @ 10:16 AM 0 Comments

Many mentions of the depression...

guardian: Markets motor ahead - but never see the ice on the road

Could it happen again? Could stockmarkets plunge 25% in 48 hours, as they did in October 1987?

Posted by inbreda @ 09:44 AM 1 Comments

Waiting for the big crash...

Times Online: UK house market is heading for crash

How long before we have some mass panic? - "In a bleak warning, the IMF found that homes in Britain were overpriced by up to 40 per cent far more than the overpricing in the US before the current property slump began there. The finding will fuel fears over housing market prospects after growing evidence recently that prices have already begun to fall in some parts of Britain."

Posted by peter @ 09:10 AM 0 Comments

Chancellor's Passing the Buck

Dail Mail: Chancellor's warning to homeowners as IMF predicts devastating crash

The Chancellor rebuked mortgage lenders yesterday for fuelling an 'unsustainable' boom in house prices. In an exclusive interview with the Daily Mail, Alistair Darling said banks and building societies must be more responsible with their lending. Predicting a 'slowdown' in the property market, he urged them to be more cautious about how much they lend and take more account of whether the borrower is able to pay back the loan. 'An unsustainable house price inflation is not good for individuals, is not good for the economy, so I think it will slow down,' he said. In contrast to the IMF, the Chancellor is hopeful that even if house prices start to slow or even fall, we are not heading for an early 1990s style crash.

Posted by i should of banked it @ 09:03 AM 0 Comments

IMF states - UK Homes 40% overvalued -

thismoney: UK house-price bubble about to burst - IMF

Britain's housing market is overvalued and could face a spectacular slump, the world's leading economic institution warned yesterday. The International Monetary Fund said British property was overvalued by 40% and the growing credit crisis is likely to have a 'sizeable impact' on property prices. It said house-price rises in the UK, Ireland and Spain have been surging even faster than those in the US before the recent market collapse. The report does offer some hope to concerned homeowners by noting that housing markets in western Europe have generally avoided the 'sub-prime' mortgage market which has collapsed in the US. Other factors, such as strong immigration and lack of housing stock, are also likely to continue to support prices in Britain.

Posted by i should of banked it @ 08:54 AM 0 Comments

Yes It Will

SKY: Will US-Style Housing Slump Hit UK?

finally the media is starting to catch on to the reality of the british housing market

Posted by seanb303 @ 07:58 AM 0 Comments

Sky News start the panic

Sky News: Will US-Style Housing Slump Hit UK?

The run on the Northern Rock was continually shown to the masses by the media and helped to feed the frenzy. What is the media doing now? The International Monetary Fund said the property boom during the past 10 years has left current house prices unsustainable. It warned homes in Britain could be overpriced by up to 40%, which is more excessive than in the US before its current housing slump. Everyone will now be calculating what a 40% LOSS will mean to them! Then panic.

Posted by bnaz @ 06:29 AM 0 Comments

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Holy Smokes Batman this can't be true, can it?

Times: Bank will cut interest rates if international turmoil returns

MPC minutes suggest that the Bank has given itself room to slash rates as soon as next month if the turmoil in the financial markets returns and some members think that the UK economy is in a position of strength.

Have Gordon 'the penguin' Brown and Alastair 'the joker' Darling been using Orange Paralysing or their Lethal Mind Altering Laughing Gas?

You will have to wait until the next episode to find out more.

Posted by enuii @ 11:50 PM 9 Comments

Carry on Crunching

Bloomberg: S&P Cuts $23.4 Billion of 2007 Subprime, Alt-A Debt

"Standard & Poor's lowered ratings on $23.4 billion of subprime and Alternative-A mortgage securities that were created as recently as June. The cut covers 1,713 classes of bonds sold in the first half of 2007". Doh!

Posted by alan @ 10:35 PM 1 Comments

The Telegraph's take on the IMF news.

Telegraph: IMF raises spectre of UK house price correction

Britains housing market could be heading for a slump, with the credit crisis likely to have a sizeable impact on property prices, the worlds leading economic watchdog has warned.

Posted by garyb @ 09:53 PM 0 Comments

Fancy a barrel'o hundred dollar oil for ya X'mas present, u'all?!

Yahoo News: Oil reverses course, hits new record

Oil prices surged to a new record of $89 a barrel Wednesday after Turkey's parliament authorized an incursion into northern Iraq in search of Kurdish rebels. The vote overshadowed a U.S. government report that crude oil and gasoline inventories overall rose more than expected last week. But prices did draw some support from a 200,000 barrel decline in inventories at the closely-watched New York Mercantile Exchange delivery terminal in Cushing, Okla. Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose $1.09 to $88.69 a barrel on the Nymex after rising to a record $89 earlier.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 09:50 PM 7 Comments

Housing market transaction levels "lower than we had expected"

Company news: Trading update

... unexpected events in the banking market regarding credit availability have further reduced buyer demand and, as a result, transaction volumes during September and October to date have been significantly lower than we had expected. Consequently, we have lowered our assumptions for transaction volumes in our estate agency business for the remainder of this year and the first half of next year.

Posted by david boycott @ 09:42 PM 0 Comments

Where the US goes, we follow.

BBC News: UK house prices 'at risk of fall'

Britain may be facing a fall in house prices similar to that currently being endured in the US, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned. The IMF says there is evidence to suggest that the UK and a number of other European nations are also vulnerable to a price correction.

Posted by garyb @ 08:50 PM 0 Comments

OK. This is the way they play it...

www.thestreet.com: JPMorgan Gains Gore Citi

All kinds of explanations as to why this bank can be nimble against Citi. Of course one obvious explanation is always missing. Maybe rightly so. Maybe not. Personally i will wait a few more quarters.

Posted by whiteknight @ 07:41 PM 2 Comments

Conditions seem ripe for UK housing market slowdown - S&P

AFX News Limited: MUMBAI (Thomson Financial)

Improvements in funding conditions for mortgage-focused banks is less evident than those for large diversified banks, partly because 'conditions now appear ripe for the long-awaited slowdown in the UK housing market to begin', Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said. Wish I was a FTB with cash.

Posted by acetip @ 07:32 PM 2 Comments

Bye bye greenback

FT.com: IMF says dollar overvalued

Currency traders were given a green light to continue selling the US dollar on Wednesday, as the International Monetary Fund said the greenback remains overvalued and rejected claims the euro had risen too far.

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 06:52 PM 5 Comments

The new low in the US housing market

Times Online: US housing market plunges to 14-year low

Severe weakness in the US housing market and mortgage industry continues to prevail: "The US housing slump is set to worsen after the level of new houses under construction and building permits both fell to a 14-year low"

Posted by peter @ 05:57 PM 0 Comments

Another Warning for Housing Market

Times Online: Bleak warning of US-style British housing slump

IMF's findings will fuel fears over the housing markets prospects after recent evidence in a series of key surveys that house prices have begun to fall in some parts of the UK.

Posted by peter @ 04:17 PM 4 Comments

The IMF are worried!!

Guardian: IMF: Britain at risk of US-style house price crash

Britain risks the prospect of a US-style crash in its house prices as the credit crunch in the financial markets takes its toll of a heavily over-valued property market, the International Monetary Fund warned today

Posted by crutchley @ 03:54 PM 2 Comments

Why the government shouldn't help people on to the property ladder

MoneyWeek: Why the government shouldn't help people on to the property ladder

Whatever the arguments for changing the IHT rules, helping first-time buyers shouldn't be one of them, says Tom Bulford. If we really want to address the crisis of affordability, there's one key issue to address: the perception that houses are as much about investment as having a place to live...

Posted by mary @ 01:08 PM 5 Comments

Are stocks ready to fall?

The Telegraph: This bear is not capitulating

Ambrose hasn't given up on a 20% crash yet.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:33 PM 6 Comments

FTSE 100 stocks go up (11:00 AM BST)

The Telegraph: BoE leaves door open for rate cut

An overwhelming majority of the Bank of England's policy makers resisted pressure to cut interest rates this month because they need more time to judge the affect of the credit crisis on the broader economy.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:29 PM 0 Comments

US long term IRs will have to rise

The Telegraph: Japan and China lead flight from the dollar

Japan and China led a record withdrawl of foreign funds from the United States in August, heightening fears of a fresh slide in the dollar and a spike in US bond yields.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:25 PM 2 Comments

Desperate home owners using credit cards to fund mortgage payments

thisismoney.co.uk: 1m using plastic to pay their mortgage

'rob Peter to pay Paul tactics' to stay afloat

Posted by happyrentingz @ 12:17 PM 7 Comments

More of the same

BBC News: Lenders withdraw mortgage deals

UK lenders have withdrawn 40% of their mortgage deals in the past three months, according to the financial information company Moneyfacts.

Posted by nacho99 @ 11:47 AM 4 Comments

Behind the scenes it's all going very Pete Tong

Firstrung: Lenders pulling mortgage offers and scuppering deals at the last minute

Some 6.500 homebuyers, who have already exchanged on properties, could lose thousands of pounds as lenders use loopholes to try and pull out of mortgage offers before completion, according to Convex Conveyancing...The company states that lenders have been raising last minute questions and objections in an attempt to stop transactions from completing, this could be directly attributed to ensuing panic caused by the credit crunch. Research by Convex shows 10% of property deals last month experienced problems with the lender between exchange and completion. Convex says it has never experienced this problem in the past.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:10 AM 1 Comments

Desert of opportunity for sub prime

Firstrung: Mortgage product cull is far deeper than first thought

Overall, taking account of both prime and sub prime deals, the total number of buy-to-let and residential mortgage products available has fallen a staggering 40 per cent in just the last three months," said Harris. "While most of this change can be attributed to the sub prime market, seeing a 72 per cent reduction in the buy-to-let market and a 54 per cent cut in residential deals, the 16 per cent fall in prime residential products is worth noting.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:08 AM 0 Comments

Danny boy does it again

BBC: Bank voted 8-1 to hold UK rates

Policymakers at the Bank of England voted 8-1 to keep UK interest rates at 5.75% earlier this month, minutes show.

Posted by holding out @ 10:20 AM 6 Comments

Jones Lang LaSalle yesterday recorded its worst auction result for nine years.

Property Week: Worst Jones Lang auction result since 1998

The UKs second largest property auctioneer sold only 62% of the 86 properties offered in the room, its worst success rate since July 1998. The result will bring fresh uncertainty to the market

Posted by andrew bird @ 09:56 AM 2 Comments

Wonder how many more ostriches there are out there?

FT: Blame heaped on Northern Rock chiefs

Excellent in depth analysis of the select committee grilling of the NR board yesterday: MPs lambasted Northern Rock executives for alleged arrogance and incompetence, accusing the board of clinging to office after wrecking the bank, in a bruising three-hour hearing on Tuesday. Too little too late, but at least someone in administration is confronting them for the damage they have done in persuit of profit.

Posted by autopilotengage @ 08:47 AM 5 Comments

Swiss franc and the Norwegian krona verses the yen

cnbc.com: look at the charts for the pound verses the yen

Nicole Elliott, technical analyst at Mizuho Corporate Bank Limited, takes a look at the charts for the pound verses the yen, the euro verses the Swiss franc and the Norwegian krona verses the yen. CNBC's Guy Johnson reports.

Posted by chris @ 07:33 AM 0 Comments

people paying mortgage on credit cards!?


gosh....and this is happening with historically low interest rates and at the peak of the market....wonder whats around the corner?

Posted by taffee @ 06:27 AM 27 Comments

Immigrants are placing a huge strain on public services, Labour finally admitted last night.

dailymail.co.uk: 'Open door' immigration policy puts nation under a huge strain, Government admits

'Open door' immigration policy puts nation under a huge strain, Government admits

Posted by chris @ 03:11 AM 0 Comments

I dont often say 'wow'

Telegraph: Sir Christopher Ondaatje: 'I have always identified with predators'

The first sheet, written on his embossed, personalised taupe notepaper, says: "1. These are dangerous times. And, make no mistake about it, Northern Rock is only the tip of the iceberg. Recent government action [to guarantee investors' deposits] may indicate that this is the end of a seriously bad beginning, but it may be a warning that this is the beginning of the end!"

Posted by last avenue @ 01:35 AM 0 Comments

Sub-Prime UK now on Plastic

Metro - London Freesheet: 1m use plastic to pay mortgage

Seems that the UK house of cards is now held up with with plastic never-never threads. The article reads: "More than 1million people use high-interest credit cards to cover their mortgage or rent payments, debt experts say. Six per cent of householders have turned to plastic to pay for the roof over their heads during the past year, according to housing charity Shelter."

Posted by hyrax @ 01:27 AM 0 Comments

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Dollars coming home to roost

FT: Foreign investors flee US securities

"Foreign investors slashed their holdings of US securities by a record amount as the credit squeeze intensified, according to the latest Treasury figures. The Treasury International Capital report known as the Tic for August will be closely watched because it appears amid growing concerns about the weakness of the US dollar, which hit a record low recently against a basket of major currencies."

Posted by trough2010 @ 11:55 PM 3 Comments

Is $88 Oil Turkey's fault, or is this peak oil? See this monthly update report and weep.

The Oil Drum: World Oil Forecasts Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE - Update Oct 2007

"World total liquids production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in the middle of 2009. According to the IEA, the current peak production of 86.13 mbd occurred on July 2006 and only one year later, June 2007 total liquids production fell to an unexpectedly low 84.50 mbd. A good increase up to 85.10 mbd occurred for September 2007. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will also continue increasing" The Germans blamed the Jews, the US blame the Turks, this problem is geological, geopolitics has little to do with it and northern Iraq doesn't have much to do with oil in anycase, all lies!

Posted by planning4acrash @ 11:44 PM 16 Comments

See the future of U.K housing market in this crystal ball

patrick.net: US Housing Crash Continues

The differece between us and the U.S is that we are even more vunerable to what is about to happen and I doubt if HIPS will stave off this wave of catastrophe by starving supply. Now in the U.S. rents are cheaper than mortgages, shortage of first time buyers, fraud, bad lending/borrowing practices, baby boomers retiring, surplus of speculators etc. All of this and no unemployment or reccession. Did I say in the U.S.??

Posted by helena @ 11:41 PM 0 Comments

US: Running out of options on foreclosures

Bloomberg: HUD's Jackson Says Foreclosure Rescue Options Are `Exhausted'

The U.S. government has run out of options to stem foreclosures and must rely on Congress to enact legislation to prevent people from losing their homes, Alphonso Jackson, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development said today

Posted by alan @ 09:11 PM 6 Comments

has the fed got fedup

CNN: Wall St. worries about oil, rates

perhaps they are fedup with bailing out and reducing rates, as it simply does NOT work...

Posted by mark @ 04:53 PM 5 Comments

thats it now... no money is left

CNN: The consumer buying binge is over

No more new cars, no xmas for the kids, no new teeth, nose job will have to wait..........

Posted by mark @ 04:52 PM 2 Comments

Speculator burned hard

Irish Times: Solicitor's practice is shut after assets are frozen

and he didnt even pay interest on some of the deposits for his 105 properties Cause he "borrowed" the money from his clients. Looks like the 5.5m country pad may have to be sold. Awwwwwww

Posted by eugene @ 04:46 PM 1 Comments

1.8%? I don`t think so

BBC NEWS: UK pub lunch price soars to 20

Yet another indicator that prices are going up and away. I think an occasioal pub lunch is on most peoples menu in a month

Posted by vespasian @ 04:40 PM 4 Comments


BBC News: Oil reaches new records above $87

Oil prices have hit record levels above $87 a barrel amid tensions between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq and output concerns. "All the factors in the market are bullish. There are no bearish factors except maybe that the market looks like it has been overbought, technically."

Posted by planning4acrash @ 03:47 PM 12 Comments

More King Canute journalism

Belfast Telegraph: Viewpoint: House prices and the guessing game

This article gets interesting halfway through - apparently there is now no housing shortage in any area. Also apparently a thriving market 'keeps valuable young people from emigrating' and 'interest rates may have to fall to provide stablility'. Funny, I was just thinking the other day that unaffordable housing would be just the thing to stop emigration....err... In fact things are so great here that I have heard Eastern Europeans are now going back home becuase the cost of living here means that they can't actually save any money.

Posted by shipbuilder @ 01:29 PM 6 Comments

Growth forecast for next year has been revised downwards but is still pretty robust

BBC News: Credit crisis to shape IMF forecast

Despite the sub-prime mortgage & credit market problems that blew up in the US in the last couple of months, the IMF is likely to suggest things are still quite rosy. Certainly that is what is suggested in leaks about its new forecast, due out on Wednesday, with some saying it will revise down its estimate of 5.2% for annual economic global growth, but not as dramatically as many feared.They always throw in some comments about the how things might turn out differently to that central forecast. This time, they will say the risks have increased. There are at least four channels through which the US mortgage crisis could do wider economic damage & which the IMF is likely to be watching warily: banks & others sustaining losses, business credit drying up, American consumers & currency markets.

Posted by disillusioned @ 12:55 PM 0 Comments

What a crock

Guardian: MPs quiz Northern Rock - live

Chief executive Adam Applegarth and chairman Matt Ridley are likely to be savaged by MPs. The committee will want to know why Northern Rock reached a stage where it was forced to seek help from the Bank of England, a move which sent thousands of panicking savers rushing to withdraw their money.

Posted by inbreda @ 11:49 AM 3 Comments

It won't last

BBC: UK inflation rate stays at 1.8%

CPI remains at 1.8% and RPI drops to 3.9%

Posted by holding out @ 09:47 AM 19 Comments

Those mischievous Grannies are at it again!

Telegraph: Japan's grannies drive up gold prices

Gold has soared to a fresh 28-year high of $760 (372) an ounce on fears of global currency disorder and a surge of buying by Japanese investors using exotic trading signals. Traders report a sudden burst of activity on the TOCOM gold futures markets in Tokyo as the price breaks through the psychological barrier of 3,000 yen (12.52) per gramme, the measure used by the Japanese to trade gold.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:13 AM 10 Comments

HIP operation kicks away the market crutches

Telegraph online: Prices for flats may fall on HIPS

Buyers hunting for one and two bedroom properties could snap up a good deal over the next few months, experts have revealed, if the Government announces the next deadline for home information packs (HIPs) as is widely anticipated within the industry. Rightmove, the property website, expects to see a price fall of up to 5pc in a month, if one and two bedroom properties are given their own HIP deadline - which has yet to be announced.

Posted by bloke111 @ 08:40 AM 3 Comments

Demand is drying up

Telegraph online: Third of mortgage applications denied

Almost one in three mortgage applicants have been rejected by lenders in the past six months as the credit crunch takes its toll on home buyers. Banks and building societies are not only increasing the rates they charge home buyers, they are also tightening their lending, as they try to recover lost profits from the fall-out of the turmoil in the financial markets.

Posted by bloke111 @ 08:34 AM 3 Comments

BTL Enjoy Further Tax Benefits.

FT.com: Burden lifted from owners of second homes

Owners of buy-to-let properties and second homes are set to be big winners from the radical simplification of capital gains tax (CGT) announced in this weeks pre-Budget report. Capital Gains Tax will be cut from 40% 1o 18% for property speculators from April 2008, delaying the sale of second houses and BTL's until then is a "no brainer".

Posted by baudot @ 07:25 AM 3 Comments

It is a buyers market. Ah ah aha ha hah

Times: Held to ransom

Ruthless buyers are lowering offers at the last minute. sellers hands are tied. A reader: "I find the current system astonishing as we have had two sales fall through due to buyers poor behaviour. As a result we have incurred expense & anguish, as have others in the chain. The law needs to be changed so that, once an offer is made & agreed through survey, that offer is legally binding on the buyer & the seller" Ah ah aha haha hah ahah ahaha hha ah

Posted by confused76 @ 02:37 AM 8 Comments

Monday, October 15, 2007

October is a dangerous month for the stock market

MoneyWeek: Are we heading for another Black Monday?

Could we really be heading for a repeat of Black Monday? And perhaps more to the point, would it matter? After all, although in October 1987 the Dow Jones dropped 35% over the course of the ensuing falls, it was back to new highs less than two years later...

Posted by sha @ 11:03 PM 0 Comments

Wobble, Wobble at the top of the Bubble?

Financial Times: Reflection of reality? Fears are growing for the durability of Britains record house price boom

In the last Big crash unemployment doubled in 1990-92 from 1.5m to 3m and in 1991, one in 130 people lost their home. The big difference between then and now, however, is supposedly low inflation. In the 1980s it was out of control and, within the space of a year, the government had doubled interest rates from 7.5 per cent to 15 per cent after inflation almost trebled from 3.4 per cent in 1986 to 9.5 per cent in 1990.

Many juicy bits of info in the second half of the article.

Posted by enuii @ 10:59 PM 9 Comments

Ooooh, look $86 for a barrel of oil! - sustained inflationary pressure; this could get messy!

Bloomberg: Oil Rises Above $86 to a Record on Turkey-Iraq Border Tension

Crude oil rose above $86 a barrel for the first time in New York on concern Turkish forces may pursue Kurdish militants in Iraq, curbing shipments as refiners prepare for the peak-demand heating season.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:37 PM 9 Comments

Moral Hazard delayed is justice denied.

Wall Street Journal Deal Blog: A Bailout for Citigroup?

Good article followed by great comments. Suddenly, I understand how banks intend to get through the great unwinding without all those embarassing bankruptcies and criminal prosecutions. http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2007/10/14/a-bailout-for-citigroup/

Posted by braveheart @ 10:02 PM 2 Comments

Chinese export prices begin to creep up

ft.com: Heat in the workshop

Chinas era of exporting deflation to the world is coming to an end, says Jing Ulrich, Hong Kong-based chairman of JPMorgans China equities business. Manufacturers are raising their average selling prices and feel confident they can pass on any future [cost] increases. Pricing power has returned to a number of industries due to consolidation, the closure of smaller producers with poor environmental and safety records and natural attrition over the past half-decade, when many manufacturers faced severe margin compression.

Posted by chris @ 09:31 PM 1 Comments

Three part documentary on BBC2 starts Thu 18 Oct

BBC TV Listing: The Truth About Property

The Truth About Property Thu 18 Oct, 8:00 pm - 9:00 pm 60mins A Stretch Too Far? 1/3. Getting on and staying on the property ladder has never been so difficult. Whether you are buying, selling or trying to keep up with the mortgage payments no-one seems certain where the market is headed. In this the first of three programmes, Andrew Verity travels the country discovering just how far homebuyers stretch themselves to get on the ladder and questions if they are wise to do so now? And he meets those already there battling to keep their homes.

Posted by bloke111 @ 08:34 PM 1 Comments

Watch the VI spin unmasked

Telegraph: Crossrail price rises will be subject to delays

Following the Government's announcement that Crossrail, the long-awaited tunnel from Liverpool Street to Paddington, would finally go ahead, it took just half an hour for the first estate agent to respond. "Crossrail is just what London needs", declared Poncy Twit, a coffee-fetcher for Sir Spamalot residential development. For example Abbey Wood in Southeast London will be just four stops from Liverpool Street. The pleasant name Abbey Wood disguises the fact that half the suburb is a sprawling 1960s estate whose concrete houses are among the cheapest in London and unlikely to appeal to City bonus boys, however fast the trains.

Posted by drewster @ 06:27 PM 0 Comments

Today on ITV 1 from 8:00pm to 8:30pm

ITV: I've Lost My Home: Tonight

"A report into how some families have been left without a home after releasing equity from their properties, featuring interviews with those affected. The programme also looks at a looming financial scandal connected to a new product on the market." Let me guess... Errrm BTL? No self certified mortgages? No no overvaluation of BTL developments or 100% interest only mortgages? Or better still 5 x multiple income mortgages? Oh I give up best watch the programme I suppose.

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 05:55 PM 1 Comments

More jobs go

CNN: AOL to cut 2,000 jobs

Only last month the states revised their jobs... I wonder where they will hide these ??

Posted by mark @ 05:41 PM 0 Comments

But could they organise a night out in a brewery ?

BBC News: Americans win Nobel for economics

Theory which allows economists to distinguish where markets work well, from where they do not. Apparently offers the opportunity for improved social welfare or greater profits, but maybe not in that order.

Posted by yorkshireman @ 04:04 PM 6 Comments

Somebody needs to give Judith a very basic lesson in Economics!

Times Online: Property prices jump as owners rush to sell before Hips handicap their chances

Average property prices surged 2.7 per cent last month as owners of higher- value homes rushed to market to avoid compulsory home information packs (Hips). Experts are predicting more turbulence in the months ahead as the residential property market tries to absorb the effects of stalling buyer confidence, tighter mortgage terms and the probable extension of the Hips regime.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 01:41 PM 23 Comments

DCLG - average house price in UK stands at 219,528

BBC News: House Price inflation cooling off

What is the average income of a FTB? I hear 23k is approx the average wage in UK, let's say an average couple brings in 40k, that means both working full-time for 25 years to pay-off a mortgage almost 6 times their combined income to buy an average house! Sustainable - I think not.

Posted by c'mon correction @ 01:28 PM 8 Comments

Titanic Losses

WSJ: Rescue Readied By Banks Is Bet To Spur Market

The high-stakes plan to rescue banks from losses on mortgage securities amounts to a big bet that a consortium of financial giants -- at the prodding of the U.S. government -- can persuade investors to pour more money into the troubled credit market. Over the weekend, the Treasury hosted talks to help a group of banks set up a $100 billion fund. Oh the SIV iceberg looms on the horizon, Question is are there enough lifeboats?

Posted by yoss @ 01:16 PM 3 Comments

738,000 mortgage applications rejected in the past 6 months

Firstrung: Rejected mortgage applications increase by 60 per cent in last six months

Tighter lending conditions have seen rejected mortgage applications increase by 60 per cent. In the past six months, MoneyExpert.com figures showed that the number of rejected applications has risen from 463,000 to a shocking 738,000. The research showed that of the 738,000 people who had mortgage applications rejected in the six months to the beginning of October, applicants aged between 25 and 34 were worst affected. Around four per cent of people in this age bracket have had an application turned down - around 382,000 young mortgage applicants.

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:03 PM 10 Comments

That'll Teach 'em!!!!

guardian: Tesco considers estate agency launch

The EAs and VIs that put paid to Tescos perfectly legitimate private sale business could well regret it if Tesco decide to actually take them on at their own game.

Posted by inbreda @ 12:57 PM 11 Comments

Several (3) experts on the UK property market

BBC / Open University: Property slowdown ahead?

As part of 'Buy to Debt?', the Money Programme3 team filmed interviews with several experts on the UK property market. They talked about the risks of buy-to-let and the possibility of a housing downturn, amonst other topics. Here we provide extended versions of three of those interviews.

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:26 PM 0 Comments

This parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!

Telegraph: Northern Rock shares tumble on low bid fears

Shares in Northern Rock plunged in this morning as investors realised that they may have been overly optimistic about the price potential bidders may pay.

Posted by mrmickey @ 12:25 PM 2 Comments

a rise of 18k in a year, that's a few i-pods then =:(

Firstrung: First time buyers pay 167,070 for first home according to official govt. figures

18K a year equates to what; another 5k salary a year needed (15%), or 5k deposit on the average ftb salary - combined or single? Now if only you'd not bought the latest i-pod eh? Look what you could have won!

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:19 AM 1 Comments

I cannot afford my dump of a flat anymore

Yahoo: Message

How many of these are there in the UK...tip of the ice burg...brouight a flat two years ago, IOM and now cannot afford the repayments.

Posted by european-bear @ 10:14 AM 3 Comments

The two month measure is at standstill

Firstrung: UK house prices bounce back in September - Rightmove

House prices have rebounded by a strong 2.7 per cent during September to more than wipe out the previous month's fall 0f 2.6% new figures show...Property website Rightmove said the gain during the four weeks to October 6 was the strongest for six months and helped push the average price of a home in England and Wales up to 241,642. At the same time annual house price inflation rose to 10.4 per cent, compared with 9.6 per cent in the previous four week period.

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:30 AM 16 Comments

Still too nervous to make a prediction.

Telegraph: Enough humble pie, house prices will fall

Worth a read but Roger Bootle is being very cautious these days. He is appearing to favour the "house prices will stagnate" school of thought and say " ...the inhibitions to falling prices are quite severe. In the housing market, prices dribble lower rather than plunge."

Posted by talking rot @ 09:26 AM 13 Comments

Stephen King Says Hpc Close!

independent: edge of the abyss?

nice to see stephen king writing about hpc!....seriously though we are on the verge of something very very nasty imho when the plumber and bt engineer both have 2 buy-to-lets as does the newsagent down the road you have to worry. Like before dotcom crash taxi drivers talking about shares.

Posted by taffee @ 07:48 AM 6 Comments

Roger Bootle stands firm on house price fall

Daily Telegraph: Enough humble pie, house prices will fall

Top economist Roger Bootle was lambasted two years ago when he went against the tide of VI opinion and predicted falls of 20%. He was later forced to admit that he was wrong. Now he's back, bigger and better.

Posted by othello @ 07:26 AM 0 Comments

House price inflation picks up

Reuters UK: House price inflation picks up

LONDON (Reuters) - House price inflation in England and Wales accelerated to 10.4 percent year-on-year in the month to October 6 from 9.6 percent in the previous month, a survey by property Web site Rightmove showed on Monday. The survey also showed house prices rose 2.7 percent on the month, reversing the prior month's decline of 2.6 percent. The monthly figures, which are not adjusted for seasonal factors, take the average asking price for a home up to 241,642 pounds. Rightmove attributed the pick-up in prices to a rush of homeowners putting three-bedroom houses up for sale to avoid regulations obliging sellers to provide detailed Home Information Packs (HIPS) for such properties from September 10.

Posted by ukuser1 @ 05:55 AM 0 Comments

Sunday, October 14, 2007

Enter the Liquidity Enhancer (so we can go on partying for a bit longer)

FT: Banks line up $75bn mortgage debt fund

"Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan are on Monday expected to announce plans for a fund to buy mortgage-linked securities in an attempt to allay fears of a downward price-spiral that would hit the balance sheets of big banks. A person familiar with the discussions said that US banks collectively were expected to put up credit guarantees worth about $75bn for the fund, named the Single-Master Liquidity Enhancement."

Posted by trough2010 @ 11:05 PM 9 Comments

Will the media abandon Labour and the whole house prices charade ?

BBC: Ministers rally round for Brown

This is interesting.
The Tories have their biggest lead for 15 years. Labour donors are leaving.
The media will want to back the next election winners.
So, they could stop this vested interest propaganda about why house prices should keep going up overnight.

Posted by voiceofreason @ 07:12 PM 0 Comments

Obviously not worth the bother

BBC News: Tesco suspends its property sales

Tesco has suspended the private sales section of its property website and offered a full refund to customers.

Posted by sitting tight @ 07:01 PM 0 Comments

Time for a Land Value Tax?

Guardian: Time for a Land Value Tax?

A good article from the Guardian outling how a land value tax could resolve many of the problems with the housing market. I have started a discussion on this topic. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=58596

Posted by mike livingstone @ 06:55 PM 2 Comments

Gazundering is here.

Times Online: Held to ransom

What do a 700,000 flat in Mayfair, a 3m townhouse in Notting Hill and a similarly priced house in the country have in common? All are prime properties that have seen more than 10% price growth this year, but whose owners have recently fallen victim to the rather nasty practice of gazundering.

Posted by garyb @ 06:12 PM 12 Comments

BTL Receives Another Boost from NuLab.

Times Online: Business unites to fight tax sting

NuLab continues to favour BTL. This time it's a reduction in Capital Gains Tax from 40% to 18%, thus having the CGT tax bill for most BTL's. Why ?. Longer term inverstors in industry are not surprisingly unhappy. To quote the leader of the British Chamber of Commerce, People who buy and sell property will gain at the expense of genuine entrepreneurs".

Posted by baudot @ 12:03 PM 1 Comments

What future for the middle class?

Independent.ie: 'I am a good mother, worker and citizen, but I have no future here'

Are you one of Ireland's new poor middle class, living month to month with no reserves for emergencies? Are you penalised for earning 'too much'? Kerry Gordon feels that she is

Posted by ash4781 @ 11:17 AM 3 Comments

Well, I do declare. This website gets big hearing.

Indie on Sunday: Will house prices fall off a cliff?

Highlights: Mr Davis's prediction for the UK is bleak: a fall of 30 to 40 per cent over the next four to six years. This combination, he believes, could lead to up to a million homes being repossessed. Be warned the next few years are not going to be pretty.

Posted by financial planner @ 12:35 AM 49 Comments

Saturday, October 13, 2007

too much property built, falling tax revenues,

economist: Ailing Celtic tiger?

Ireland's economy may suffer from a property slump "Ireland's property market is already showing signs of a correction. Estate agents report prices down in some areas by around 10% this year, and shares in companies with property market exposure have also experienced falls." ...particularly interesting "Unlike in the UK, homeowners have not cashed in on the rising value of their properties to fund spending, so the affect of a downturn would be muted."

Posted by mken @ 10:09 PM 3 Comments

Speculative demand pushes up oil price

FT: Turkey fears send oil to record high

"Crude oil prices on Friday surged to a fresh high of $84 a barrel on concerns that Turkey might soon launch an invasion of northern Iraq in an attempt to hit Kurdish militants it accuses of attacking Turkish targets."

Posted by trough2010 @ 09:23 PM 6 Comments

Keep your eye on Gold... it's behind you!!!

Bullion Vault News: Gold & the end of history

The end of history never came in the '90s, and the death of gold has failed to hit this decade, too...

Posted by stevie dee @ 03:22 PM 0 Comments

86,097 and rising

propertysnake.co.uk: propertysnake.co.uk

Not an Article, just an observation. I looked last week and the number of sellers caught by propertysnake.co.uk as having reduced their asking prices was around 74000. Today it is 86,097. Could the HPC actually be happening before our eyes?

Posted by sirgoogle @ 01:03 PM 47 Comments

HPC well established in Shropshire

Shropshire Star: County house prices still falling

House prices are continuing to fall in Shropshire with supply and demand both diminishing, according to the latest RICS survey of the UK market. House price inflation fell once again in September, with 61 per cent (ouch!) of chartered surveyors in the county reporting a fall in prices. New buyer inquiries were down for the fourth consecutive month and at the fastest pace in the surveys history (ouch!).

Posted by uncle chris @ 10:53 AM 1 Comments

No wonder the propaganda campaign is targeting BTL

Firstrung: First time buyers drop by twenty percent over past six months

Moneysupermarket.com has revealed that first-time buyers (FTBs) are disappearing at an alarming rate. According to the firm's 'Mortgage Map' the number of first time buyers has dropped by one fifth over a period of just six months ... "First-time buyers are the lifeblood of the housing market and provide essential liquidity, so the fact this segment is getting smaller is worrying for the economy as a whole."

Posted by uncle chris @ 10:43 AM 4 Comments

They know what's coming ...

Independent: L&S seeks 200m to bet on property crash

A trio of long-time London property investors plan to raise up to 200m in a stock market listing to cash in on their expectations of a crash in the UK commercial property market. "The momentum has gone out of it. A lot of [high returns] were driven by cheap credit. But after the credit crunch, why would anybody borrow money at 6.5 or 7 per cent to buy a property that yields 4 per cent? The numbers don't add up."

Posted by uncle chris @ 10:34 AM 3 Comments

Friday, October 12, 2007

Selling prices now falling in half the regions ...

FT.com: UK housing market slows in September

The national housing market slowed significantly in September, hit by the credit squeeze and the delayed impact of interest rate rises, according to the FT house price index. Prices in England and Wales grew 0.3 per cent in September compared with 0.4 per cent in August. The annual growth rate fell to 8.8 per cent from 9.4 per cent in August, taking the cost of the average home to 225,826. House prices fell slightly in half the regions of England and Wales in the last three months.

Posted by uncle chris @ 11:12 PM 3 Comments

House Prices Rose In September

David Smith: Article

So nerrr nerr ne ne nerrrr nerrrr! I was right there is no Sub Prime....

Posted by orwell @ 05:13 PM 0 Comments

"Subprime" - it's all about the multiples

Wall Street Journal: The United States of Subprime

It used to be that high-rate borrowers weren't allowed to stretch as much as conventional borrowers on loan amounts, a reflection of their higher credit risk. But as home prices rose throughout the U.S. in the early 2000s, lenders grew more willing to let high-rate borrowers get bigger loans as measured against their annual incomes. In 2005, borrowers who got high-rate mortgages to buy one- to four-family homes were loaned 2.1 times their reported annual income, on average, according to the data. That was 4% higher than regular borrowers.Kristine McMahon has a six-figure income as a mortgage broker and lives in a four-bedroom home in East Hampton, N.Y., valued at more than $2.7 million. Yet Ms. McMahon, who works for Manhattan Mortgage, chose a subprime loan for herself when she refinanced

Posted by lvmreader @ 05:13 PM 3 Comments

the signs are there now, load and clear

Right move: Wordsworth at Chatsworth Gardens, Off Mill Lane, Liverpool, L15 8JX

anyone want a place with money back each month? what next an aston martin?

Posted by mark @ 04:11 PM 0 Comments

this video makes a good watch

CNN: U.S. economy woes

U might need to watch the advert first.. the interview is in the UK...

Posted by mark @ 04:02 PM 0 Comments

Ten percent mortgage rates; OUCH!

Firstrung: Sub prime rates for non-conforming mortgages have now breached the 10 per cent mark

John Charcol has noted that UK three month LIBOR has fallen back to 6.25 per cent, with more conservative product ranges entering the market - showing signs that the crisis is beginning to level off. Katie Tucker of John Charcol is however concerned that the non-conforming market is "growing into its new skin of lower LTVs and higher pricing" leaving borrowers stuck with rates edging into double figures...

Posted by converted lurker @ 03:19 PM 9 Comments

Anyone bought the re-released Bob Dylan cd? "The answer my friend is..."

Firstrung: House prices fall for second month by 0.6% - Home.co.uk

A further fall in the mix adjusted average house price for England and Wales confirms a dramatic change in UK housing market sentiment. Confidence amongst sellers is crumbling in many parts of the UK as the effect of five consecutive interest rate rises is felt. Sellers' problems have been further compounded owing to the knock-on effects of the credit-crunch, which has both reduced the availability of credit for homebuyers and shaken buyers' confidence in the housing market.

Posted by converted lurker @ 03:17 PM 0 Comments

BBC still trying hard to drum up interest in Northern Rock look attractive

BBC "News": Virgin eyeing Northern Rock deal

However hard the government's loud-little-lapdog BBC tries, the market still believes the Northern Rock is a Crock. Three previous suitors have looked, stared, shaken their heads and fled, but this is different now, no really it is. As of 12PM today, Northern Wreck has borrowed over 13bn and it's still out offering the same old mortgages like there's no tomorrow at the taxpayers' expense.

Posted by paul @ 03:00 PM 7 Comments

Oil Capital Property Prices see 2% quarterly fall


The warning comes on the back of new figures issued yesterday showing the average house price in Aberdeen has suffered its biggest drop in two years. Figures from the Aberdeen Solicitors Property Centre (ASPC) suggest that there has been a 2% drop in the average Aberdeen house price in the third quarter of 2007. In the last three months there has been a huge increase in the amount of properties on the market, while the number of homes for sale at a fixed price has risen by more than 170% from 154 to 410 since the summer.

Posted by anthony @ 02:57 PM 0 Comments

consumerism gone mad

sky news: Surgery More Attractive For Brits

Surgery More Attractive For Brits Looking good is more important to around a third of Brits, who say they would rather splash their savings on their appearance instead of keeping the cash for retirement, according to a survey

Posted by seanb303 @ 01:58 PM 6 Comments

A great video that sums up the real problems

You Tube: Corrupt Banking System

Posted in a thread last week. This 45 minute video sums up all that is wrong with the economics of mankind. A banking system that relies on ever increasing amounts of debt/money creation to survive. Unsustainable use of natural resouces. Failure to understand the exponential function (steady growth of 3% is not flat but exponential). Increasing population on a finite planet. An elite few controlling the wealth of the masses.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:31 PM 21 Comments

Fill this in to contribute to the national report.

propertyfinder.com: Consumer Housing Confidence Index - Sept07: Have Your Say!

One question is - How do you think house prices will change in the next 12 months? The options go as far as 20% either way but you can also choose the more than 20% option.

Posted by disillusioned @ 01:14 PM 1 Comments

Tonight 7pm: BBC2

BBC2: Buy to Debt

Fri 12 Oct, 19:00 - 19:30 30 mins Buy to Debt? The buy-to-let boom has transformed the property market and turned plenty of fledgling property tycoons into millionaires. But with confidence in the mortgage business shaken by the Northern Rock crisis and rising interest rates is the boom finally over? Reporter Libby Potter traces the rise of this 100 billion industry and tracks down investors The Money Programme has filmed in the past to discover whether their buy-to-let dreams have turned into a buy-to-debt nightmare. [S]

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:01 PM 9 Comments

Soft landing, rather than a crash?

Times Online: Heaven knows estate agents are miserable now; but do they have any right to complain?

How bad 2009 going to be? "ESTATE agents are a bit glum, for which they are blaming home information packs (Hips), Northern Rock and the media"

Posted by peter @ 12:34 PM 7 Comments

Inflation to be taxed at 18%

Citywire: Outcry as pre-Budget report taxes older investors on inflation

The new CGT rules effectively tax inflation at 18% as CGT will be charged on the nominal gains in value rather than the real gains in value after inflation is taken into account. This means that you can face a tax bill on investments that you have actually lost money on in real terms. Anyone who has held an asset since the 1970s will be particularly punished.

Posted by ah-so @ 11:00 AM 2 Comments

tulipmania,dotcomboom,blt housing boom

wikipedia: TULIPMANIA

Really worth a read to see just how lunatic human nature can become and look at how fast the whole thing can fall apart when people wake up and say 'I think prices are far too high'..DOH!

Posted by taffee @ 10:52 AM 1 Comments

House Price Fear Grips The Market

home.co.uk: House Price Fear Grips The Market

Press release: 12 October 2007 The UK housing market's troubles have worsened this month. The Home.co.uk Asking Price Index, a key indicator of market sentiment, released data showing that prices have fallen by a further 0.6% in the last month (England and Wales). Growing fears amongst sellers and dwindling numbers of buyers have driven asking prices down in 6 out of the 9 regions in England and Wales since September. The average lost value for homeowners in England and Wales equates to 1,511 in a single month. "Discounting of properties on the market is becoming more widespread," commented Doug Shephard from Home.co.uk. "Confidence amongst sellers has plummeted as genuine buyer enquiries have tapered off ...

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:01 AM 5 Comments

Why the need to say anything Peter ... Panic?

Firstrung: House price crash not on radar despite house prices dipping in September - IMLA

The Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA) has insisted that the dip in house prices growth does not signal an imminent crash. Peter Williams, executive director of IMLA has warned people against jumping to conclusions over the latest set of house price figures, saying that it does not necessarily mean a housing market crash is on the horizon.

Posted by uncle chris @ 08:45 AM 5 Comments

Taxpayer will take hit of NR sub-prime losses

Guardian: Treasury underwrites ailing bank's bailout

Economists estimate Northern Rock borrowings from the Bank have increased by 2.3bn in seven days and total about 12.9bn. It emerged yesterday that, after urgent requests from the ailing lender for a loosening in lending terms, Treasury officials earlier this week secured a deal that enabled the Bank to relax its collateral requirements - a move that governor Mervyn King had previously opposed. Terms on the Bank's replacement facility allowed Northern Rock to put up "all of its assets" as collateral, including its 7.8bn of unsecured loans.

Posted by uncle chris @ 08:39 AM 11 Comments

More lambs to the slaughter ...

thisismoney: Buy-to-let lending soars despite warnings

Buy-to-let investors are continuing to dive into property despite warnings the market may have peaked. CML figures released this week for August mortgage lending showed strong property investing was propping up the market with the 'other lending category' covering buy-to-let up by almost 40% on the same month last year.

Posted by uncle chris @ 08:32 AM 7 Comments

It's all downhill from here ....

Home.co.uk: House prices fall further

Prices of homes on the market in England and Wales have fallen for a second month by 0.6%. Asking Prices for homes in England and Wales have risen 5.9% year-on-year & 2.0% over the last 6months. Greater London Asking Prices fall again, 0.5% in a month. Asking prices in Wales fall 3.0% in one month. Prices fall again in 6 of the 9 regions in England and Wales.

Posted by uncle chris @ 08:11 AM 8 Comments

more on the buy to let tulips from amsterdam

bbc news: britain's deflating buy-to-let bubble

so much then for get rich quick squad...I mean a man in derby has 13 buy-to-lets but ftb's cannot afford a house.Tide is changing and this articl just about sums it up.

Posted by taffee @ 07:48 AM 7 Comments

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Darling wants to protect savers money

BBC: Plans for quicker bank bail-outs

Darling wants to insulate savers from Bank Collapse and maintain Critical Functions such as Direct Debits and Cash Machines. Darling also revealed a members interest as his mortgage is with Northern Rock, now is that Prime or Sub-Prime?

Posted by enuii @ 10:42 PM 28 Comments

The Credit Crunch - View 2

Reuters: JP Morgan says credit turmoil's worst yet to come

The current relative stability of credit markets may be the calm that precedes the storm as the worst of the credit markets turmoil is yet to come, investment bank JPMorgan says in a new research report.

Posted by alan @ 10:03 PM 2 Comments

The credit crunch - View 1

Reuters: Darling says credit crunch easing

Credit conditions have eased in the last few weeks but it is still too early to say when the current troubles in financial markets will end, Chancellor Alistair Darling said on Thursday

Posted by alan @ 10:01 PM 4 Comments

Digging Up The Dead For The Muslim Population What Next !!!

dailymail.co.uk: Anger over plan to dig up 350,000 bodies in historic London cemetery for Muslim burial site

It is a peaceful resting place for 350,000 souls - an historic graveyard which now serves as a nature reserve. But plans are afoot to dig up the ancient graves at Tower Hamlets Cemetery - and reopen it as a 21st century burial site.

Posted by chris @ 09:08 PM 3 Comments

Commercial Property not looking too hot!!

Times Online: RBS to offload 800m property portfolio

Royal Bank of Scotland is plotting to sell off 800 million of property, including the landmark Coutts building on London's Strand, in a sale and leaseback deal.

Posted by pecker @ 05:43 PM 8 Comments

Demand from property investors was blamed by 16.1 per cent of those questioned,

AboutProperty.co.uk: Public misunderstand causes of high house prices

"Ten years of low interest rates have brought about Britains high house prices, but this is poorly understood by most people,"

Posted by soldinjune @ 03:32 PM 16 Comments

Kerplunk! - more big numbers from the US...

Bloomberg: Home Foreclosures Doubled in September on Loan Rates

U.S. home foreclosures doubled in September from a year earlier as subprime borrowers struggled to make payments on their adjustable-rate mortgages, RealtyTrac Inc. said. There were 223,538 foreclosure filings last month, including default and auction notices and bank repossessions, the research company said today. California had the most with 51,259 and Florida was second with 33,354. The national foreclosure rate was one for every 557 households, according to RealtyTrac.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 12:55 PM 6 Comments

Rich home buyers feel squeeze as well.

Times Online: Feeling the squeeze?

The rich may be different, but that does not make them immune to a downturn in the UK property market

Posted by peter @ 12:24 PM 0 Comments

UK House prices continue to fall.

Times Online: Surveyors highlight deep cracks in housing market

From today's Times online - "Fresh evidence of a slowdown as the Royal Institute says that the market has fewer homes, falling prices and absent buyers"

Posted by peter @ 12:08 PM 0 Comments

The tide has turned

The Telegraph: Would-be new buyers turn backs on market

The housing market slowdown is deepening, with prospective homebuyers abandoning the market at the fastest rate in over four years, new figures show. House prices have fallen for the second month running and the market is showing worrying signs of a downturn, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). It says the number of new buyers is falling at the fastest rate since early 2003. If sentiment changes now and houses become homes instead of investment objects, then prices will drop.

Posted by onyerhike @ 11:18 AM 0 Comments

Buy-to-let investors need to learn their sums

MoneyWeek: Why tax changes won't save the UK property market

The latest stats from RICs are bad news for the property market, but could this week's other big economic news - the tax changes announced in the pre-budget report - help the buy-to-letters and, by extension, the market as a whole? John Stepek looks at why that's unlikely - and why buy-to-let investors need to learn their sums.

Posted by mary @ 11:16 AM 0 Comments

Can't put it better than the original article title

Citywire: Mortgages: Here comes the Repo Man

Brilliant 6 page article on Citywire today, makes very scary reading. Worth reading, if only for the sub-headline: "BUY-TO-LET SMALL FRY ON THE RUN" on page 2. "The property market appears to be unravelling at an increasing pace. Repossessions are on the up and a growing number of flash sale companies are waiting in the wings to prey on fears of negative equity. RICS reported a sharp rise in properties sold at auction in the second quarter of 2007 and warned that the figure will continue to rise as the impact of increased interest rates filters through. According to property website landlord.co.uk, some investors are panic-selling, trying to get out before the market crashes and leaves them with negative equity."

Posted by little professor @ 10:35 AM 17 Comments

more jobs to go

Yahoo: 500 Jobs Under Threat At Electrolux

All this talk about the UK and its healthy economy, if that is so true why are so many jobs going.. Does anyone have a running total of all jobs that have gone or are going from articles in the papers...I heard that famous chocolate company are shedding jobs too...taking them to Poland...

Posted by mark @ 10:34 AM 0 Comments

More media acknowledgement of the start of the crash

Guardian: House prices fall across UK

House prices across the UK tumbled last month at the fastest rate for two years, a leading industry survey shows today, while demand from first-time buyers plummeted sharply, adding to widespread evidence that the housing boom could be over.

Posted by autopilotengage @ 08:09 AM 25 Comments

Feel the pain

The Telegraph: This economic crisis is bound to hurt

The number of repossessions is rising rapidly; this will accelerate even further in the coming months. Many of the biggest losers will be poorer families and first-time buyers, who have taken out unaffordable mortgages to get on the property ladder. Some people will do well out of the situation, buying property at a knock-down price; others are already tightening their belts and stopping spending so much on their credit cards. For there's no guarantee that the economy won't slow by far more than the Chancellor has predicted. Ouuuchhhhh !

Posted by onyerhike @ 08:08 AM 1 Comments

Credit Card Receivables - Nuclear Weapons of Mass Destruction

Reuters: Americans charge it as Bank of Subprime closes

"If they had been financing their consumption on the basis of the equity of their homes and suddenly that is cut off then they will have to borrow more through traditional channels," said Stephen Lewis, economist at Insinger de Beaufort in London. And August was a very bad month for the substantial minority of Americans who have depended upon housing borrowing to finance ongoing consumption. Not only were house prices continuing their slow, steady march lower, but the world had woken up to the seriousness of the issue and the asset backed financing markets more or less shut.

Posted by lvmreader @ 07:35 AM 0 Comments

Here comes the Credit Card Tsunami

Baltimore Sun: Credit card debt is ready to blow

The next bomb from this chain reaction of bailouts and blowups will be credit-card debt. Hardly anybody is talking about it yet, but banks and consumers are laying the ground for a wave of credit-card defaults, bankruptcies and asset write-offs for 2009 or so. This can end only one way. The only question is how bad it will be.

Posted by lvmreader @ 07:34 AM 1 Comments


Telegraph: This economic crisis is bound to hurt

I cannot think of anything witty or funny to say about this. The hard truth is in the title.

Posted by quiet guy @ 01:32 AM 3 Comments

Surveyors see house price falls

BBC News: Surveyors see house price falls

House prices are continuing to turn down, says the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics). Its latest survey says UK house prices in September generally fell again, with more of its members reporting a fall in prices locally than an increase.

Posted by frustrated gardener @ 12:08 AM 1 Comments

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

The media have got this totally wrong - CGT change is going to bring a glut of properties to the market

Mail: Second home and buy-to-let tax gift

"But tax experts said it had inadvertently handed a major tax break to second home owners and will save them thousands of pounds when they sell." NOT A CHANCE! Home owners who are liable of a very small CGT today (10% or less b'se of taper relief) vastly outnumber the BTLers who are on 40% rate. The former will want offload properties before moving to 18% CGT, i.e. before April. Funny how the media were calling BTLrs "long-term" investors. Now all that has evaporated!!! Ah ah aha hahh ahh ahh ah ahh. Imagine the i@iotic BTLer knowing he will have to hand 18% of capital gains back to Treasury, and subsidizing the tenant at the same time!! Thank you Alistar! Thank you for copying ideas from the tories including the unintended consequences. ah ah ah ah

Posted by confused76 @ 11:04 PM 10 Comments

Inside Out Report - Yorks 10/10/07 7.30pm

BBC News: Student Housing

Thought you'd like to look at this article on the TV this evening. Looks like the VI's had a hand in this one. An investigation into what looks like being tantamount to corruption! Some BTLosers have well and truly lost out in the great Student heaven of Leeds. These stories just keep coming and coming...

Posted by sold my soul to the never never never @ 10:26 PM 1 Comments

Early casualties in the UK sub-prime market

Firstrung: Mortgage broker Black & White ask for voluntary redundancies

The Black and White Group has announced 50 of its staff are to be given voluntary redundancy, cutting its workforce by a quarter. "It's regrettable that we have to take this step, but like all intermediaries active in the non-conforming mortgage sector, revenues have been hammered. Lenders have upped their rates, increased arrangement fees, withdrawn lending criteria and reduced procuration fees; all of which have significant consequences to our business".

Posted by uncle chris @ 09:16 PM 0 Comments

Can anyone see the bottom?

Bloomberg: Existing US Home Sales May Drop to Five-Year Low

Existing home sales this year probably will fall to a five-year low, worse than forecast, signaling the U.S. housing market is far from hitting bottom.

Posted by alan @ 09:09 PM 1 Comments

Tax changes are going to impact the house market.

BBC: Coping with the new tax changes

"People who have owned assets for a long time may find that the new CGT rate could exceed their current potential charge, which would have been reduced by indexation and taper relief." ah aha ha ha hha hha aaaahahha There will be a huge number of homeowners who will rush to take profits out of their big houses bought for peanuts in the 90's. For them holding until after April is not an option anymore. "These changes may also impact on middle-range foreigners working in the UK, who use structures to ensure that their overseas funds escape the UK tax net." This will take care of the foreign property investors who have propped up the market in Chelsea too. aha hahhha ahhahahh

Posted by confused76 @ 08:13 PM 24 Comments

Falling!... at least the volumes are!

Times: Analysis: Mortgage lending

"Evidence suggests the housing market is slowing, but buy-to-let lending continues to be popular" yeah but what does popular mean?? means we have a greater proportion of btl in the mix. well we know that FTBs are diserting the market... so what?

Posted by confused76 @ 06:17 PM 0 Comments

Banks and drunk, an ex-con freed on a technicality - Both created money

MoneyWeek: How mortgage banks magically create money

I was searching for explanations of M1, M2, M3 and M4 money supplies and discovered this article. It supports the idea that the house price boom has been engineered by the Banks who have quietly made cheap credit easily available. Some answers to the question at the end would be appreciated ...

Posted by talking rot @ 04:23 PM 4 Comments

Tip of a very large iceberg

Yorkshire Evening Post: Two held as huge losses investigated by police

Only two arrests so far, but "many investors ended up having properties repossessed" How do "investors" fall for this sort of scam. Johnette Motler will have a long time to sit in her armchair, if that is not reposessed as well. How many more schemes like this are there ?

Posted by yorkshireman @ 02:51 PM 13 Comments

Another wheel has definitely come off the "long term" wagon!!

MoneyMarket: PBR: Fears CGT changes could prompt buy-to-let sell off

There have already been warnings that buy to let is propping up the housing market with CML figures showing that lending to buy-to-let investors rose by 37 per cent in the year to August. Standard Life head of pensions policy John Lawson says: "The changes to capital gains tax will encourage people to turnover their buy-to-let properties quicker. People will not take the long view with buy-to-let. Investors will take the speculative view."

Posted by confused76 @ 02:21 PM 19 Comments

Capital Giains not looking too tax efficient anymore David ?

Economicsuk.com: Held at 5.75%

Poor David is running out of bullets.

Posted by doomwatch @ 02:05 PM 3 Comments

4000 mortgages not enough obviously

Firstrung: Mortgage intermediaries attack lenders' lack of product innovation

I loved this press release, now mortgage brokers are blaming lenders for not enough innovation..what, other than lending to anyone with a pulse/passport/NI number?...actually scratch that, those three aren't needed. Stop laughing at the back at the fact that brokers named Northern Rock's Together mortgage as innovation at the 'cutting edge'...

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:38 PM 6 Comments

Time to smell the coffee...

Firstrung: Buy to let still attractive for second home 'wanabees' - Nationwide

According to a recent study* by Nationwide Building Society, 10% of those questioned own a second property in the UK and a further 14% would consider buying a second property here. Based on this research, if all these people owned a second property, almost 1 in 4 people in the UK would have a second home. The most popular reason for owning a second property was for buy to let purposes (55%). Almost one third (32%) of people purchased their second home for personal use and 7% let out their second property as a holiday home...

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:34 PM 5 Comments

Nice solid HPC article...

Telegraph: Monthly mortgage repayments hit 15-year high

Home owners are paying more on their monthly mortgage repayments than at any time since the property crash in 1992, according to official figures. The figures come as increasing evidence emerges that the property market is heading for a sharp slow-down, as mortgage rates increase and people find it increasingly difficult to get on the housing ladder.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:03 AM 5 Comments

Where will this money go? Some into Gold?

The FT: 'Hedge fund collapse is on the way'

Investors will withdraw $500bn (245bn, 355bn) a quarter of the asset base from hedge funds in the next year, leading to the collapse of a "large number" of hedge funds.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:22 AM 5 Comments

An alternative view, but not one based upon Supply vs Demand

MoneyWeek (Online): Where Next For House Prices

The article explores the future of house prices will not be determined by the credit crunch, by interest rates, etc etc, but by what happens to the UK economy. If it continues to grow, house prices will not fall. If the economy stagnates or shrinks, house prices will fall. I like " .... for mainstream borrowers on low loan-to-value ratios, credit conditions have not deteriorated as much as the headlines suggest." This means, to my mind, that a repetition of the early 1990s is unlikely. (If it is accurate!)

Posted by talking rot @ 08:06 AM 15 Comments

Merv is wheeled out to talk tough

Bloomberg: King Suggests He Won't Reduce Rate to Shield Banks

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King suggested he's reluctant to cut interest rates to shield lenders from increased credit costs and predicted more ``turmoil'' in financial markets. If you look closely at the picture you can almost see the strings ;-)

Posted by autopilotengage @ 07:55 AM 9 Comments

Government Props Up Owners Of Multiple Homes

Daily Telegraph (Online): Pre-Budget: The winners and losers

A short article which demonstrates my belief that the Government will prop up the housing market AT ANY COST. Labour fears the loss of the "feel-good" factor, something which adversely affected John Major's Government. See the comment " Second home owners: they will pay lower rates of tax (18 per cent) on the profits from selling their second homes." So our BTL-ers are getting another break if they sell their portfolio.

Posted by talking rot @ 07:54 AM 14 Comments

Markets topping???

The Telegraph: Soothsayers dont like this deranged bull

My learned colleague at Naked Capitalism likens technical analysis to astrology, so with that cautionary thought I offer a few charts. Together the graphs scream non-confirmation, warning us that the blistering rally on Wall Street and global bourses since the summer crunch may well be a bear trap.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 07:43 AM 0 Comments

Tuesday, October 9, 2007

US mortgage crisis predicted to get worse as home loan defaults soar

The Times: Business Article

Is this before it gets worse next year (Bernake, Darling, King and Broone) or afterwards?

Posted by orwell @ 11:13 PM 1 Comments

Those hoping for a interest rate cut to bail them out are going to be disappointed.

Telegraph: King dashes hops of emergency rate cut

Mervyn King has poured cold water on hopes that the Bank of England is gearing up for an emergency interest rate cut, saying it will not set rates to "insulate the banking system from the repricing of risk".

Posted by jonathan @ 11:01 PM 3 Comments

GLG Partners hedgefund caught with fingers in the northern rock till

Times: Confusion leads hedge fund to reveal its shorting of Northern Rock

Hedge fund inadvertently admits shorting the rock to the Northern Rock takeover panel with a bit of spivvery when it didn't really need to admit anything.

Posted by enuii @ 10:36 PM 3 Comments

America for Sale

thetrumpet.com: European, Asian and Middle Eastern corporations are taking advantage of a weak dollar to grab technology and wipe out American competition.

The dollar is taking a pounding. It is sharply down against the euro, pound, Swiss franc, and the yuanalmost every major currency. The dollar is also down against gold and silver, as well as against wheat, corn, cotton and many other commodities.

Posted by chris @ 09:05 PM 0 Comments

Woolwich to be next sub-prime casualty?

Firstrung: Woolwich announces confidence in buy to let mortgage market

Perhaps buoyed on by the bail-out of Northern Rock, the Woolwich has announced that it is relaxing its lending criteria on BTL (aka sub-prime) mortgages. Key features of their new "product" ..... (1) Rental cover to reduce from 125% of mortgage payment (2) Proof of income not required on loans upto 500k (3) 75% loan-to-value (which suggests they are factoring a 25% price crash), (4) remove requirement for minimum income of 20,000. Sub-prime, sub-prime, sub-prime .....

Posted by uncle chris @ 08:41 PM 25 Comments

Could this captial gains relief invite more speculators in property

BBC: A speculator's budget?

As the captial gains has now been reduced from 40% to 18%. Could this give more leverage to property speculators. As now they have to pay less tax on these homes held as investment. Oh! my God Law of un intended consequences.

Posted by deepak @ 07:15 PM 17 Comments

BTL is set to crash the market

Times: Analysis: Mortgage lending

"The slowdown in the residential markets is one of the reasons behind the continued strength in buy-to-let. Thousands of people cannot afford to buy and many are reluctant to take the plunge now, in case prices fall. Demand for rental property is therefore strong which helps explain why buy-to-let lending is still on the up." Obvious conclusion: brainless BTLetters are subsidizing the tenants. if people CAN afford to pay the rent, but CANNOT afford to buy, it means that renting IS CHEAPER. But "In recent weeks, a number of buy-to-let lenders have tightened their criteria." So, who will prop up the market after the BTL are gone? The BTLs are the "last fool"!!! Ah ahah ahhha ahhahha ahahhah

Posted by confused76 @ 06:07 PM 3 Comments

Be careful what you wish for...

FT.com: China resists European pressure on currency

I would imagine this is inevitable. After the trade imbalances are sorted out (which Europeans and Americans think benefit them) this will ultimately be in China and Asias favour. They will be the new places for global investment and the new reserve currencies. Lets see how quickly it occurs and how easy it is to suddenly replace cheap overseas goods (which are efficiently manufactured) with homemade goods once more.

Posted by whiteknight @ 03:24 PM 5 Comments

Who takes the blame for the rook

BBC: Peston pick FSA v Bank of England

The chief executive of the Financial Services Authority, Hector Sants, has just dumped on the Bank of England in an extraordinary way. It's like blaming someone for not clearing up your mess.

Posted by holding out @ 03:15 PM 2 Comments

comment on last night's Panaroma

Firstrung: BBC's pantomime season comes early with sub prime tales of woe

The only phrase missing from last night's Panaroma programme was surely; "He's behind you". In fact that's probably as good a place as any to start with this comment on the programme - he's not the 'bogey man' he's a mortgage broker..OK here goes, two words in relation to last night's programme; "personal responsibility"...Let's get one thing straight at the outset, it's just plain wrong to offer (for example) the disabled married couple interviewed last night who were on a variety of benefits, a mortgage to replace their rent.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:46 PM 21 Comments

The housing market from a neutral perspective

UKPRwire: Fears that prices could fall by 50 per cent

The UK housing market could see prices fall by 50 per cent, according to the Debt Advice Bureau The not-for-profit organisation looked at house price growth against Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures since 1952, reports City Wire. It found that whenever house price growth reached more than 15 per cent of GDP there was a subsequent fall, which saw price growth cool by between 62 per cent and 80 per cent of economic growth. Further to this, in the 1970s house price growth hit 120 per cent of GDP growth and this was followed by a huge crash.

Posted by herrbbiiee @ 12:30 PM 3 Comments


BBC: Northern Rock gets new guarantee

The Treasury has agreed to protect new savings deposited at the troubled Northern Rock bank

Posted by mrmickey @ 11:56 AM 8 Comments

Sub prime doesn't exist in Ireland....

RTE News: Judge Warns Over Repossesion Costs

Recently, there have been a large number of cases taken by sub-prime lenders after their customers got into difficulty

Posted by lem @ 10:38 AM 0 Comments

Only 3% per year!

Daily Mail/thisismoney: House prices 'set to fall by thousands'

House prices are likely to fall in the next two years, wiping thousands off prices, while a full-blown bust is possible, claim economists. They believe the impact of higher interest rates and the global credit crunch will fuel a property market squeeze. They forecast that prices will fall by 3% in 2008 and by the same amount in 2009, taking the average cost of a home down by almost 13,000 to 205,000. The claims come from Capital Economics, which is led by Roger Bootle, a former chief economist at HSBC and one of the Bank of England's committee of 'wise men' under the last Conservative Government. He has not ruled out a repeat of the 1990s crash that ruined thousands of buyers who were repossessed or owed more on their homes than they were worth...

Posted by should of banked it @ 08:59 AM 9 Comments

The R-word

The Telegraph: Time called on extravagant decade of debt and the tab must now be paid

One possible road map for 2008 looks something like this. The credit crunch continues to bite, keeping the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers high. The financial sector, on which Britain is dangerously dependent, contracts. This pushes unemployment higher and reduces government revenues further. Meanwhile, inflation refuses to lie down (yesterday's producer prices data are the latest indication) so the Bank of England can't cut rates as fast as it might wish. The housing market falls over and a mid-cycle pause becomes a full-blown recession.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 07:55 AM 16 Comments

Darling targets wealthy foreigners

FT: Darling set to tighten tax loopholes

The chancellor will announce plans to tackle elements of the tax system used by the private equity industry; the super-rich taking advantage of non-domicile status; and small family businesses taht distribute profits among relatives.

Posted by su @ 07:08 AM 3 Comments

Synthetic CDO, Synthetic CDO, please pick up the white courtesy phone

Forbes: Roe Vs. Wade For The Securities Industry

The dramatic verbiage is not misplaced. Without question, there's a lot riding on the outcome of StoneRidge Investment Partners LLC vs. Scientific Atlanta, the high-profile securities case scheduled to be heard by the Supreme Court this week. CCharacterized by some as the " Roe vs. Wade for the securities industry" and others as "the most important securities case in a generation," the eventual decision will have a significant impact on whether investors in companies that commit securities fraud should be able to sue investment banks, accountants, lawyers and others who were direct "participants" in that deception. Current shareholders' rights for going after third parties that aid or abet corporate fraud are not as clearly defined as one would think.

Posted by lvmreader @ 05:02 AM 1 Comments

Are you bent over comfortably? Right, then I'll begin......

International Herald Tribune: Record earnings seen for Goldman Sachs, based on hedge funds

"You've only seen the first round in the deterioration of the mortgage area," said James Melcher, president of Balestra Capital, a New York-based hedge fund with about $270 million of assets. "The second round is just starting, and it's going to be worse."

Wait until people find out just what a synthetic CDO is and why there will be lawsuits until 2020 about this. I hope that these investment banks and funds are putting aside a large amount of money for their legal defences and settlements. This idea that this is a "storm in a teacup" is plainly wrong. This is a tsunami wrapped in an earthquake and sprinkled with bubonic plague.

Posted by lvmreader @ 04:59 AM 1 Comments

Hopes of an early rate cut? If I were them I'd be offloading assets now before rates hit 7%!

The Times: Hopes of early rates cut hurt by rising inflationary pressure

The fact is that inflation will rise above 3% by the New Year or at least Easter, as it did last year if this trend continues (is there any credible reason why it wont?), and, as with last year we would need about another percentage on interest rates to make it budge. This is partly due to global factors, but allowing RPI to migrate two percentage points above CPI is the real reason to be worried because of second round wage led inflation, which is already kicking in with the Royal Mail who have rejected a 7% pay deal over two years. They know that they are being ripped off by high inflation and so will everybody else soon enough. Then there's only way forward and that will be backwards into recession and a house price meltdown.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 12:26 AM 4 Comments

Monday, October 8, 2007

Mortgage Mayhem 2

BBC Panorama: Sub-prime Suspect

a simple and audacious property fraud which works by selling overpriced apartments to unsuspecting buyers, many of whom get out sub-prime mortgages to cover the cost. The seller takes the money and disappears. The reason we all need to be worried about bad sub-prime debt like Emmanuel's is that it can contaminate the rest of the economy. That is because in the City of London, debt is traded just like any other commodity.

Posted by confused76 @ 11:01 PM 12 Comments

Can't be true, surely?

Times: Get ready for two-year fall in house prices, say economists

House prices are set to fall by 6 per cent over the next two years, according to a report from Capital Economics, a leading consultancy. Britain will follow the United States, Ireland, Spain and France by suffering from the end of the global housing boom, it said. Its report forecasts a gloomier scenario than was encountered during the slowdown of 2004 and 2005, when property inflation slowed from 20 per cent to 2 per cent.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 09:54 PM 8 Comments

BBC Panorama on US Housing crash

BBC1: Panorama: Sub-prime Suspect, BBC One Monday 8 October 2030.

Panorama finds out if the mis-selling of mortgages to those with bad credit records could cause a financial crisis in Britain similar to that in the US. TRANSMISSION INFORMATION - Panorama is on Mondays at 20:30 BST on BBC One and repeated on BBC News 24 , Tuesdays at 00:30 BST and 03:30 BST.

Posted by scumbag @ 08:21 PM 0 Comments

This lady needs mental help

Times: Tales of a landlady: How low can you go?

She has problems and is a vulture in denial. Send any suggestion to buytolet@sunday-times.co.uk

Posted by confused76 @ 06:49 PM 10 Comments

Inflation aint licked yet

BBC: Raw material prices rise sharply

Raw material costs for UK manufacturers rose at their sharpest rate for more than two years in September.

Posted by holding out @ 02:50 PM 7 Comments

Mortgage Mayhem

BBC Five Live Special Report: Mortgage Mayhem

Scary stuff. At 19 mins 20 secs in analyst Chris Woods mentions something to the effect that the UK housing market is very precarious right now, and could cave in at any minute at the slightest push. The 5 live presenter "Rachael" suddenly sounds quite concerned.

Posted by doomwatch @ 02:33 PM 7 Comments

No need to sit down for this news.

BBC News: Raw material prices rise sharply

Rising oil prices helped to drive up input prices .... ...sign that inflationary pressures remain, and will likely deter the Bank of England from reducing interest rates.

Posted by paul @ 02:20 PM 0 Comments

Credit crisis may decide the next election - unfortunately for Brown

MoneyWeek: How the property crunch will topple Gordon Brown

By the time the general election happens, the public will realise the mess that Gordon Brown made of the economy when he was Chancellor...

Posted by mary @ 12:43 PM 8 Comments

Is this where to put your money?

Gulf Daily News: Islamic banks 'are safe from credit crunch'

Islamic finance institutions have been protected from the global 'credit crunch' because the trading of subprime mortgages was against the principles of Sharia, according to an industry expert.Accounting and Auditing Organisation for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI) senior financial analyst Khairul Nizam said the effect of the crisis on the Islamic finance industry would be virtually nil. Mr Nizzam predicted further growth for the Islamic finance industry. "The market is booming and we think that growth is going to be there for some time yet - a lot of forecasts have been made and 10 to 15pc growth for the next two to three years seems to be what people are looking for and think can be achieved," he said.

Posted by disillusioned @ 12:09 PM 15 Comments


Irish Independent: Construction slowdown may boost house prices

"House prices are a simple function of supply and demand," said Mr McArdle. This economist is trying to claim that builders aren't building as many houses because they're trying to create demand and that this will increase house prices! Or, it could be because the MASSIVE oversupply meanse that there isn't any point in building. They'd have to demolish a lot of houses to even make a dent in the oversupply from lack of cheap credit.

Posted by disillusioned @ 11:30 AM 6 Comments

Sod the BBC's "5 times income" propaganda

Ealing Times: Ealing: House prices high

HOUSE prices in Ealing are more than ten times the average income in the borough. The average price of a home in Ealing stands at 314,934 - 13 times the 24,931 the average resident earns in a year.

Posted by disillusioned @ 11:23 AM 5 Comments

Slow realisation of things we've known for years

MyFinances.co.uk: House price fall could 'imprison' first-time buyers

A dip in house prices could see buyers with 100% mortgages unable to move up the housing ladder. This is because the estimated one in 20 first-time buyers who have this kind of mortgage could end up in negative equity - when the value of the loan is higher than the property itself. This would mean in order to sell their home a first-time buyer would have to pay back the mortgage lender the difference in value between the property and the loan, effectively imprisoning them until their property was worth more than their mortgage.

Posted by disillusioned @ 11:20 AM 4 Comments

I'd be VERY annoyed with my predecessor!

BBC News: Alistair Darling's toughest challenge

"Mr Darling has entered Number 11 at a very interesting time" - Investec economist Philip Shaw Concerns that economic growth is set to slow and the public deficit is set to widen are coupled with signs that the housing market may have peaked. Slower economic growth means reduced tax revenues for the government, and the spending targets set by Mr Brown when he was still chancellor will be hard to meet...Especially as his hands are tied by Mr Brown's "golden rule"; a pledge to only borrow to invest, not to fund current spending. - I thought Broons Golden rule was to completely f*ck us all over!

Posted by disillusioned @ 11:12 AM 2 Comments

No suprises here

BBC: Homes sold to 'poor debtors'

Again, this cutting edge jouranlism, 5 years too late, will not suprise the regular "doomsters" (inappropriate media label) here, but I'm guessing "sub prime" mortgages in the UK is a LOT higher than 8%.

Posted by doomwatch @ 10:03 AM 26 Comments

Nomem omen

Belfast Telegraph: Let's ensure the Titanic Quarter is family friendly

"The recently publicised 1.5bn investment for Belfast's Titanic Quarter is most welcome, providing 2,000 new inner city dwellings in the long neglected area of Queen's Island" Titanic, what's in a name! and pretty timely, given the success of flat buildings these days

Posted by confused76 @ 09:44 AM 2 Comments

London growth halved next year

Bloomberg: London Bonuses May Fall as Banks Cut Jobs, CEBR Says

Next year's estimated losses of 6,500 banking and fund- management jobs could be the most severe since 2000 as companies brace for a slowdown in U.S. and Chinese economic growth, and the pace of house price increases may fall to 1.6 percent from 16 percent, according to the CEBR

Posted by confused76 @ 09:41 AM 0 Comments

Darling's latest BS

Reuters: Darling says UK well placed to withstand credit squeeze

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain is in a much stronger position than many other countries to withstand a global credit squeeze, Chancellor Alistair Darling said on Sunday.

Posted by aloha @ 09:05 AM 2 Comments

Modern Nightmare

The Independent: Britons are richer, but have less to spend

"Disposable income has plummeted to its lowest level for a decade in a further sign of the turmoil in the financial markets and the credit crunch hitting British consumers". This is clear evidence of the financial stress some homeowners are in. The bank managers who agreed to lend 5x, 6x, ... have a lot to answer for - as well as the greedy speculators of course.

Posted by quiet guy @ 12:23 AM 1 Comments

Sunday, October 7, 2007

Melting down quickly

Times: Loans shock on foreign homes

THOUSANDS of British people with second homes abroad are the latest to face a payment shock following the global credit crunch, as lenders across Europe raise their rates and tighten up their criteria.

Posted by confused76 @ 11:14 PM 2 Comments

Inflation, inflation, inflation.

Peakoil.com: Peak Oil Media 9-6-07

For those who don't believe it, here is why $100+/barrel is inevitable. Will the banking system survive it?

Posted by planning4acrash @ 11:08 PM 0 Comments

Just How Sound is the Irish Banking System?

Morgan Kelly: Professor of Economics, University College Dublin.

While there has been a lot of interest lately in the possible risk to banks from sub-prime loans, nobody seems terribly concerned by the large and rapidly growing exposure of Irish banks to property speculators. Irish banks are now owed almost as much by builders and developers as they are by mortgage holders, and are now more exposed to commercial real estate than Japanese banks were when they crashed in 1989.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:06 PM 3 Comments

Over 300,000 of the 800,000 units built over past twelve months are empty

Firstrung: Spains empty new build 'plague' reaches epidemic proportions

The Valencia property developer Llanera has become the first high-profile victim of the credit crunch in Spain, declaring insolvency yesterday after failing to meet payments on 748m of debt. The builder was unable to reach agreement with Lehman Brothers and other banks on a refinancing deal, a sign that foreign creditors are no longer willing to underwrite Spain's property market. Almost 800,000 homes were built in Spain last year, leaving a glut of 300,000 properties in the market. The rating agency Moody's said default rates in Spain could jump from 0.37pc to 5.5pc if the economy suffers a hard landing, with an outside risk that values could fall by 20pc.

Posted by converted lurker @ 08:53 PM 8 Comments

Hero to Zero in 6 months

Firstrung: Sub prime lender plans to make all staff redundant

these guys were really going places in Feb/March. Spending money on a move, new product range, taking on staff...could they really not see 'IT' coming?: Unity Homeloans has confirmed that it is making all its staff redundant in a move that effectively closes its business down. The lender, which is funded by Investec indirectly through Infinity Mortgages, has pulled away from the market in light of the recent 'credit crunch'. Its remaining mortgage business will be 'outsourced'...

Posted by converted lurker @ 06:24 PM 4 Comments

Rightmove web site traffic

Alexa.com: Rightmove site traffic

Take a moment to look at what the current situation is doing to Rightmove's web site traffic.

Posted by flamepoint @ 06:14 PM 2 Comments

Expensive crap flats about to get a lot cheaper

Wales On Sunday: Cardiffs property crash fears

"An estimated 40,000 one and two-bedroom flats in city centres, in complexes of 25 flats or more, have been built in Britain since 2000. Of these, 70 to 90 per cent have been bought by investors, rather than owner-occupiers..." and now the investors sense troubled waters so they're dumping their two bed box like flats as fast as they can, which is pretty slow. The council that granted planning permission for them - and continues to do so - is now aware of thousands of empty properties. As a result a property crash is feared in Cardiff. As local band The Automatic might say, "what's that coming over the hill - is it a monster?!"

Posted by bad boy bubby @ 05:40 PM 1 Comments

Survey of EAs - prices falling virtually everywhere

Telegraph: House prices: on the edge

and not just newbuild flats. Sarah Nixon of Hammond Harwood, a Nottingham-based agency, says none of the city's agents could remember a time when so few sales were going through. "It's frightening," she says. "We have properties which have been on the books for months and months, which have suffered price reduction after price reduction but are still not selling." Nixon says September is usually one of the busiest months but was "completely dead". "Even buy-to-let has gone stale, in a normally buoyant students' market. The returns mean that as an investment buy-to-let simply isn't feasible any more." Enjoy!

Posted by mybrainhurts @ 05:08 PM 27 Comments

Admissions of what's really happening at the EA's offices

Sunday Telegraph: Cut price homes still fail to sell

Estate agents across Britain are slashing asking prices by up to 20%. They also have loads more on their books than at the same time last year, and no takers!

Posted by davidr @ 05:06 PM 0 Comments

Independent? When half your assets are owned by the state bank and you're paying 12m a month in loan interest? I don't think so

BBC "News": Rock 'could remain independent'

The BBC tries to maintain an air of dignity for the stakeholders in the massive mess that is Northern Rock. The new rescuer is not JC Flower (who now seem to be off the radar), no it's Citi. According to the article "Now newspaper reports have raised the possibility that a loan organised by Citi from a selection of US banks and insurers could allow Northern Rock to carry on in its current form."

Well, I'd like to just raise the possibility that I could win the lottery next Wednesday.

Posted by paul @ 01:42 PM 8 Comments

Johny Come Latelys

FT - Weekend - Money section: Lending slows for buy-to-let

One of the charecteristics of a bubble is that lots of weak buyers are sucked in at or near the top. There is the fameous story of a player on Wall Street being told tips by a shoe shine boy and selling out his portfolio just before the 1929 crash. In any case two quotes from this article caught my eye: 1. Buy-to-let lending accounted for 10 per cent of mortgage balances, compared with 3 per cent five years ago. 2. Up to the first half of the year, the market was looking sound. According to CML, the number of buy-to-let loans outstanding had reached a RECORD [my emphasis] 938,500. It would be good to see a graph of the number of BTL o/s loans since BTL became popular (i mean co-inciding with the relaxation of renting rules & regs - short lets etc.)

Posted by techieman @ 12:44 PM 0 Comments

VIs forecast 2008 house prices in line with inflation

Times: The pressure's on

Banks are tightening their lending criteria, which will hit Britains own sub-prime borrowers among them those investors who have mortgaged themselves up to acquire buy-to-let properties. With next years City bonuses expected to be smaller than this years, even some of the usually ebullient agents who work the exclusive end of Londons property market are beginning to adopt a more thoughtful and guarded tone. So, what will happen in 2008?

Posted by confused76 @ 11:11 AM 4 Comments

A lot of noise about the stamp duty, but why??

Times: The property market - October 5, 2007

Let me throw in a controversial topic here. Now the stamp duty cost is forked by the seller, not the buyer. I have no problems with some 3 to 5% of the profiteering be given back to society. All this noise about stamp duty is created by those with vested interests on the sell side (lenders, EAs, home owners). Reducing stamp duty will increase house prices by the very same amount -- hence no help for fist time buyers. If the stamp duty were to be reduced just for a selected group of buyers (e.g. the FTBs) then there would be a benefit for that group.

Posted by confused76 @ 11:08 AM 5 Comments

There is a God !!!

Telegraph: Fear and loathing over jobs in the City

Banks are taking the axe to staffing levels. And bonuses are next, writes Helen Power. In recent years a whole industry has sprung up in the City dedicated to parcelling up debt with ever more exotic names. Bankers have been dumping these packages into lucky-dip buckets of yet more debt called collateralised loan obligations. But that, in the words of one City figure, was before "sub-prime became HIV".

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 09:54 AM 0 Comments

Canary Wharf flats will get cheaper in 2008

BBC: City 'to lose 6,500 jobs' in 2008

The City of London could lose 6,500 jobs in 2008 in the wake of market turmoil, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts (confirming last month's speculation on this site).

Posted by alan @ 09:34 AM 5 Comments

So there's no subprime in the UK, huh?

BBC News: Sub-prime borrowers face repossession

A BBC investigation has found sub-prime mortgage lenders who give loans to people with bad credit records account for more than 70% of all repossessions. On Breakfast news they added that "subprime" accounts for 8% of the UK mortgage market. Wasn't it just a couple of months ago that we had no subprime in the UK? It would be very interesting to know how they're defining what is subprime and what isn't.

Posted by paulos @ 08:33 AM 12 Comments

Saturday, October 6, 2007

Gordon Brown wants to be judged on his 'vision' not 'competance'

Guardian: Brown: there will be no autumn election

Strange slightly cryptic quote from Brown on his reasons for not dashing to the polls.

"What I want to do is show people the vision that we have for the future of this country in housing and health and education and I want the chance, in the next phase of my premiership, to develop and show people the policies that are going to make a huge difference and show the change in the country itself." Has he forgot the last 10?

Posted by enuii @ 07:01 PM 27 Comments

Will buy-to-let be Britain's very own sub-prime?

Telegraph: Buy-to-let bubble is fit to burst in the wake of US market chaos

Over in America, house prices are plunging at the fastest rate since records began. (I hope David Smith is eating his hat!). I am concerned that the buy-to-let sector could be the spark for a similar crunch. For a year or more buy-to-let has not been half as good an investment as it used to be: yields have fallen, and so high has the cost of borrowing become that even if the new buyers succeed in getting tenants, they are highly likely to find themselves making a loss on their investment in the first few years.unhappy investors are selling the shiny new flats they bought only months ago for an average of only 60 per cent the value they originally paid. egregious examples of oversupply in some city. Aha hahhah ah where is the demand? aahah the students? the immigrants? ah ah ah

Posted by confused76 @ 02:10 PM 8 Comments

Safer than Gold??

Moneyfacts: Offshore Savings - Euro Accounts

Exchange now at 1 to 1.44 then wait until the pound and the Euro reach 1 to 1 parity. Remember Germany is the powerhouse of the Euro. It doesn't suffer from high house prices and 43%of people rent so it doesn't have anything resembling the personal debt UK has! Germany has a world class manufacturing industry and is almost surrounded by a cheap pool of labour in the former eastern block. In fact its only a short drive across the border or better still they'll move there world class industry to them like Skoda.Germany has the largest economy in Europe and the third largest economy in the world, behind the United States and JapanGermany is the world's top exporter with $1.133 trillion exported, from the beginning of 2006 (Germany's exports to other Eurozone countries are included in thi

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 12:56 PM 2 Comments

Americas bankers are asleep on the job

The Times: Business Article

Wall Street should wake up, there remains no escape from the crisis that is continuing to unfold. House price falls are continuing to accelerate. Property prices in major cities dropped by 3.9 per cent in the year to July, compared with 3.4 per cent the previous month. That of course was before the credit squeeze that has forced the huge US banks to lop billions of dollars from their expected profits. OVER TO YOU BERNAKE? How Did you get into this mess? By lowering interest rates, that's how. So it's quite logical to lower them again now isn't it?

Posted by david smith's sub prime... @ 12:27 PM 0 Comments

Which savings providers count as one financial institution?

Moneysavingsexpert: Are your savings safe?

"Its very important to understand that its not per account but per financial institution. In simple terms that means if youve got masses of savings all in one bank, then only the first 35,000 worth is protected" Check out the graph!

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 12:16 PM 0 Comments

Credit Crunch Not Affecting New Car Sales Yet

Auto Industry News UK: September UK new car registrations rise 1.3%

September 2007 total new car sales up 1.3% on last September when the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders had expected a 0.7% fall. Octobers and Novembers figures should be a lot more interesting though as tightened credit and falling property prices start to bite.

Posted by enuii @ 11:40 AM 4 Comments

Asleep at the wheel. What happens next?

The Times: Americas bankers are asleep on the job

Wall Street should wake up. While the worlds biggest economy may not be in quite such a dire state as it appeared a few weeks ago, there remains no escape from the crisis that is continuing to unfold. House price falls are continuing to accelerate. Property prices in major cities dropped by 3.9 per cent in the year to July, compared with 3.4 per cent the previous month.

Posted by quiet guy @ 10:40 AM 0 Comments

Sentiment is definitely shifting

thisismoney: UK house price poll - 72% expect a fall

August's global credit crunch has sparked concern for the property market. What will happen to UK house prices from now to the end of 2007? Poll results so far ....

Posted by uncle chris @ 10:09 AM 12 Comments

The return of financial prudence?

Independent: Nervous banks turn down millions of loan requests

Every day, more than 20,000 people are being turned down for personal loans as banks adjust to the crisis in world financial markets. Experts are warning consumers to take extra care to keep their credit rating up to scratch in a new atmosphere in which even an unpaid 5 mobile phone bill can become grounds for turning down a loan application. A survey by the financial comparison site MoneyExpert.com revealed that 1.91 million people had had applications for loans turned down in the three months to September, a sharp rise on the previous quarterly figure of 1.39 million.

Posted by uncle chris @ 10:05 AM 2 Comments

Seems like the US government can't stop the lies as well

Independent: US jobs figure that triggered Fed's rate cut 'was a mistake'

The surprise decline in US employment in August, which triggered a stock market panic and gave the Federal Reserve cover for a dramatic half-point interest rate cut last month, turns out to have been a mistake. The government revised its recent employment figures yesterday and said that rather than a 4,000 reduction in the number of jobs in August, the US economy in fact created 89,000 new positions.

Posted by uncle chris @ 10:01 AM 7 Comments

Mainstream press says OK for prices to stay flat... thank you!

Times: Welcome check on house prices

Halifax, the UKs largest lender, reported that the value of the average property fell by 0.6 per cent last month. This came after Rightmove, the estate agency website, said that asking prices dropped by 2.6 per cent in the same period. The Bank of England, meanwhile, reported that total mortgage approvals a reliable indicator of future house price growth fell to 109,000 in August, down 9 per cent on the same month last year. The housing market is finally beginning to struggle under the pressure of higher interest rates, credit market turmoil, affordability constraints and modest growth in real disposable income... YYYYYYYYES!!

Posted by confused76 @ 12:42 AM 7 Comments

Friday, October 5, 2007

Commercial property slides

FT.com: Commercial property slides

Under pressure. First negative total returns for around 15 years apparently.

Posted by whiteknight @ 10:55 PM 16 Comments

"Growth in the buy-to-let sector in the past decade has also helped to keep rents down"

FM: Mortgage costs exceed private rents

Start of the weekend... read for a laugh! But if you are a BTLoser, rush to the nearest EA and put your "investment" on the market TOMORROW!

Posted by confused76 @ 07:15 PM 12 Comments

losses continue, and not their last?

BBC News: Merrill in $5.5bn sub-prime loss

Merrill Lynch has warned it will have to write down a $5.5bn (2.7bn) loss for bad investments linked to defaulted US sub-prime mortgages. Merrill, the latest investment bank to reveal its exposure to the downturn in the industry, said it would post a third-quarter loss as a result.

Posted by happyrenter @ 05:50 PM 3 Comments

``You can't bring people into the country who are incompatible with our way of life and culture,'' she said.

goldcoast.com.au: Hanson backs cutback on refugees

PAULINE Hanson has supported the Federal Government slashing the intake of Sudanese refugees, saying the Government needed to protect the `Australian way of life'.

Posted by chris @ 05:07 PM 8 Comments

Get them while their hot .... their lovely ?

Daily Mail: Ikea launches the 150,000 flat-pack home

Yesterday, people on low incomes were allowed to start applying for one of the cheap timber-framed homes, which begin at 99,500. If the project proves successful, similar developments could pop up in other parts of the country.

Posted by uncle chris @ 04:36 PM 23 Comments

More bad news for borrowers

Bloomberg: ECB Says Banks Expect Credit Conditions to Tighten

European banks may make it harder for companies and consumers to borrow money in the next three months after the slump in the U.S. subprime mortgage market increased the cost of credit, the European Central Bank said.

Posted by alan @ 04:29 PM 0 Comments

Election: to be or not to be ?

Reuters: Pre-budget report set for Tuesday

"Chancellor Alistair Darling looks set to lower the 2008 economic growth outlook and pour billions more into the state health service on Tuesday....The prime minister is expected to make a final decision about an election over the weekend".

Posted by alan @ 03:36 PM 2 Comments

Flat-pack homes

BBC News: Flat-pack homes go on the market

This article describes IKEA's flat pack homes which are due to built near Gateshead Stadium (a luvverly part of the world when I was growing up..NOT) for "low income families". Except this is some new definition of low income, since the starting salary you need is 15,000 which is not a very low wage for the area.

Posted by ursa minor @ 02:53 PM 0 Comments

Credit crunch could lead to fall in sterling

MoneyWeek: The best way to play a slump in the pound

As UK house prices start to fall, retailers and estate agents have been calling for rate cuts. But the BoE has something more important to think about right now: the weakening pound. It's a worry for the Bank - but it could be an opportunity for investors...

Posted by mary @ 02:49 PM 4 Comments

Ask the "expert"

FT: Global property prices

I don't think I need a Knight Frank cheerleader to answer any of my questions, but I certianly could think of a few to make him squirm: "Liam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank, will tackle your questions on the global housing market in a live debate on Monday October 8 from 2-3pm BST. Mr Bailey has substantial experience across the whole residential sector, from development and private housing to investment and affordable tenures."

Posted by doomwatch @ 02:44 PM 3 Comments

Phew, election fever it is then!

Interesting use of the word "now"

BBC News: Renting now cheaper than buying

The survey refers to 2006

Posted by mybrainhurts @ 01:42 PM 7 Comments

Commercial property not sooo good...

Yahoo: Meadowhall setback for British Land

I thought this company said things looked bright for property...

Posted by mark @ 11:06 AM 0 Comments

The hammer drops

The Economist: America's property crisis

Michael Ciaravino, the mayor of Maple Heights, points out that only three houses have sold in the past two months, compared to a monthly total of between 15 and 50 a few years ago. Once prices halve, he reckons, the market will clear, new families will come in and his suburb will recover. The question, for Maple Heights and America, is how much damage is done in the meantime.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:34 AM 2 Comments


Times: House prices slide to a halt

"Buyers are exploiting a static market to push for reductions of 10 per cent"

Posted by confused76 @ 10:10 AM 20 Comments

Martin Wolf's view

FT.com: Britain faces its own housing risk

FT's leading economist writes one of the most thorough pieces on the topic that I've seen. Not an awful lot that's not been around before, but the provenance and analysis make it far more credible than that of either the 'vested interests' or the doom-mongers. Topped and tailed with some views on Mr. Brown's next move.

Posted by james @ 09:33 AM 6 Comments

Lower Sterling and Lower INterest Rates Predicted

Daily Telegraph: HSBC warns of hot money exodus from Britain under 'siege'

HSBC predicting lower sterling and, interestingly, cuts to interest rates in the New Year. This matches my own belief of what will happen. Perhaps the Government is content for higher inflation as it will erode debts?

Posted by talking rot @ 08:13 AM 23 Comments

EAs working hard to help bring foreign money to London

Wall St Journal: Behind London's Boom, Billionaires From Abroad

Wealthy foreigners are helping transform London by injecting cash into its neighbourhoods, companies, restaurants and art scene. While some resent the influx of foreign super-rich who are causing property prices to rise humungously, EAs like Savills are travelling abroad to court potential clients.

Posted by su @ 07:08 AM 2 Comments

And it's cheaper to rent

BBC News: House costs 'five times income'

Headline says it all, but this quote near the end made me smile...Across England, the cost of renting was generally up to 30% cheaper than a mortgage on the same property.

Posted by sara @ 06:54 AM 8 Comments

Housebuilders may go bust!

Bloomberg: Homebuilders Liquidate Assets as Threat to Survival Spurs Sales

U.S. homebuilders are struggling to sell their products so are having to accept really low offers -some are discounting as much as 40% in order to raise cash. Others prefer to offer incentives worth thousands of dollars, which will smudge the actual selling price - don't want it to look like the builders are dropping prices too much!

Posted by su @ 06:41 AM 1 Comments

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Buy to let tax breaks numbered....

Firstrung: Potential buy to let tax reforms opposed by Paragon

In response to the Institute of Director's report on the tax status of buy-to-let investors, Nigel Terrington, chief executive of the Paragon Group, said: "The IOD misses the point that buy-to-let is a business activity in exactly the same the way as investment in commercial property. Businesses making investments are entitled to offset their interest expenses against tax. Buy-to-let should be no different - the interest on any borrowings is a straightforward business expense, not a tax relief.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:39 PM 5 Comments

November rate cut already factored in?

Firstrung: Interest rate cut remains a likely prospect - CML

Responding to today's MPC decision to hold interest rates at 5.75%, the Council of Mortgage Lenders says that the hold was widely expected but that a cut in November remains the most likely prospect... Michael Coogan, CML Director General, commented:

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:37 PM 0 Comments

Northern Rock borrows 2.9bn more

FT.com: Northern Rock borrows 2.9bn more

"Mr Flowers strategy for Northern Rock is understood to depend on an assumption that conditions in the credit market will recover soon. If these deteriorate, his bid may become unviable, some financiers believe.". Er....

Posted by whiteknight @ 10:47 PM 6 Comments

More on Price Drops

Time Online: Cool winter expected for house market as prices drop

House prices have fallen for the first time this year as experts predict that overvalued property prices will cool substantially this winter.

Posted by hotfoot @ 10:07 PM 1 Comments

2007 is not a good vintage!

Bloomberg: US Subprime Delinquencies Accelerating, Moody's Says

For bonds older than six months, 2006 was the worst year for serious delinquencies since at least 2000, Moody's said in the report. However, data in the report suggests that accelerating delinquencies from 2007 bonds are likely to eclipse 2006!

Posted by alan @ 10:06 PM 3 Comments

1 in 3 chances of a crash

Reuters: Housing market to cool rapidly into 2008

"The housing market will cool substantially into 2008, with an almost one in three chance of an annual fall in prices at some time over the next 12 months, a Reuters poll shows" there cannot be soft landing, once it starts falling...

Posted by confused76 @ 09:43 PM 5 Comments

I lend to you to buy loans from me....

FT.com: Banks use discounts to tempt vulture funds

So that i can lend more. This of course will increase the stability of the financial system by decreasing the correlation of failure & default (!!?). You just have to smile don't you. Don't worry though.... Its like branded car loans apparently (i made a post earlier today in preparation of a few things happening in that department...).

Posted by whiteknight @ 09:32 PM 1 Comments

More trouble down under

NZ Herald: 10th finance company goes under

Auckland-based investment firm Clegg & Co Finance has been placed in receivership - the 10th in a string of finance company failures

Posted by dr b @ 08:42 PM 0 Comments

It has started

The Telegraph: House prices drop for first time this year

Britain's largest mortgage lender revealed that average house prices during September dropped 0.6pc to 198,500.

It has started.

I think I'll have a beer

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:21 PM 8 Comments

42% btls say recent hikes in the cost of borrowing had reduced their desire to buy more properties"

C4: Rates 'not halting' buy-to-letters

"A high tenant demand is fuelling rental yields, offering strong capital returns for buy-to-let investors."Providing the base rate does not stray above 6%, the buy-to-let market will remain buoyant as the majority of investors are looking for a long-term solution and recognise that bricks and mortar remains unrivalled as an investment asset." They are confused!

Posted by confused76 @ 07:08 PM 6 Comments

New Zealand is coming to the wake as well

New Zealand Herald: Brakes go on -big dive in house sales

Sales down by 25%, national house prices static for 4 months (this months figures out soon should show a decent fall). Do read the article for some reet good laughs courtesy of VI's the one about poor sales because folk are at the Rugby World Cup is particularly chortelsome.....

Posted by andy h @ 07:03 PM 1 Comments

Tesco Property Market suspended due to VI pressure

Emailed notice: Tesco Property Market

"Dear User

I am writing to let you know that unfortunately Tesco Property Market is suspending its private seller service.

Tesco Property Market has been enormously popular, offering value and choice to our customers, however, the high profile launch of our service raised questions about the status of on-line private sale businesses under the 1979 Estate Agency Act, which was implemented well before the emergence of the internet."

Posted by paul @ 05:39 PM 11 Comments

House prices drop 0.6% in September

Evening Standard: House prices drop 0.6% in September

House prices fell by 0.6% during September as the property market continued to show signs of running out of steam, figures have revealed. I guess Evening Standard is playing to parties at both stands.

Posted by global citizen @ 04:19 PM 0 Comments

Why Gordon Brown wont call an early election

MoneyWeek: Why Gordon Brown wont call an early election

Higher rates, higher mortgage payments, raised uncertainty and signs of a consumer slowdown - there are plenty of reasons for Gordon Brown to call a general election this autumn. But MoneyWeek's John Stepek suggests that he won't...

Posted by mary @ 03:25 PM 0 Comments

It'll do yu good.

Telegraph: The Bank's not in panic mode on interest rates

However, despite the threats to the economy, the Bank will not lose sight of the fact that low interest rates encourage indebtedness, and with Britain already the most indebted nation in Europe, interest rates will have to remain high for longer than many people expect. Likewise, inflation remains a concern. The Consumer Price Index may have dropped beneath the 2pc targeted by the bank, falling to 1.8pc in August. However, oil prices have since risen back up to record highs, and most surveys suggest manufacturers and services companies are preparing to raise their prices further.

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 03:13 PM 0 Comments

Prices set to Surge in London

Evening Standard: House Prices Surge Ahead

Apparently the extraordinary strength of the London economy is to blame. I guess everthing must be going better than we thought?

Posted by cyril @ 02:17 PM 16 Comments

Tax relief on BTL being discussed

IFA: Paragon rejects IOD call to end BTL tax relief

IOD proposal is very sensible. Mortgage tax relief is a complete UK anomaly, the single most important reason for the rampant HPI. In the US the mortgage interests on the first house are deductable, not on btl. Houses should not be investments! There is limited stock of houses and rampant cost of housing is cripplling the UK economy. Adopting the IODs proposals on buy-to-let mortgages would have a destabilising effect on the property market, removing one of the incentives for landlords to invest in buy-to-let property and making renting more expensive for those not yet ready to step on the housing ladder, adds Terrington. The first part of the sentence is true, but the second part is cr@p. But in any case, the btl market is going down the drain

Posted by confused76 @ 02:05 PM 16 Comments

Selling Cars...

wardsdealer.com: The Ultimate Leasing Machine

Just a little bit away from topic for a moment. There are just one or two facts and figures that are worth holding in memory for the time being.

Posted by whiteknight @ 01:48 PM 0 Comments

Look at the graph, the current hold does not go against the clear trend of rising rates, which could well continue as inflation hits home by Christmas.

BBC News: No change for UK interest rates

Economists say the Bank is adopting a "wait-and-see" policy on rates until a clearer picture emerges of the effects of the recent global credit squeeze.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 01:06 PM 3 Comments


BBC News: ECB keeps interest rates on hold

"The strong euro and the persistent dislocations in the money and credit markets will likely force the ECB to keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future," said Holger Schmieding from Bank of America." Suggesting that the bank would like to raise rates to quash inflation, but that other factors are tying their hands.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 01:04 PM 0 Comments

It's official n the Torygraph

Telegraph: House prices 'heading for fall next year'

"House prices will fall nationwide next year for the first time in more than a decade, experts have warned, following new evidence that the property boom has come to an end."

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:52 PM 0 Comments

Yeah!!! Buy-to-lose-everything!!

National Homebuyers: Buy-to-let in crisis

Julian King of National Homebuyers, the UK's leading fast property purchase firm, says "We have received so many calls recently from landlords looking for a fast sale that it is obvious that the BTL market was unstable. "The Telegraph's figure of a 40 per cent fall is astronomical. BTL landlords currently clutching tightly to their would-be profit centre would be advised to sell the property quick". Sorry Maddison et al, BTL is based on bad bad fundamentals, it is a hype, it is a craze like the dot.com, get out before you get your fingers burned (if you still can!!) You are mad to think your pension can be built with tulips!

Posted by confused76 @ 12:38 PM 17 Comments

Biofuels 'fuel' inflation

BBC News: Will biofuel leave the poor hungry?

Green groups and aid agencies cite biofuels as forming part of the "perfect storm" of poor harvests, rising oil prices and a surge in demand for food from China and India that are all pushing up the price of everything from pasta to a loaf of bread.

Posted by nelson @ 12:27 PM 0 Comments

Unexpectedly? Where does Delphine live?... in London asking prices 've been static since April!!

FT: UK house prices in first fall this year

"UK house prices unexpectedly fell 0.6 per cent in September, the first decline this year and a concrete sign that the housing market is slowing in response to tightening credit conditions, the Halifax said on Thursday. The Halifax index was well below expectations of a monthly rise of 0.4 per cent. On the quarterly measure watched more closely by policymakers, house price growth has slowed from 2.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2007 to 0.9 per cent in the last three months"... 0.9x4 = 3.6% per year, wow, I make more money in a savings account

Posted by confused76 @ 12:24 PM 1 Comments

No change on IR's

BoE: Bank of England Maintains Bank Rate at 5.75%

The Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee today voted to maintain the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 5.75%. The minutes of the meeting will be published at 9.30am on Wednesday 17 October.

Posted by uncle chris @ 12:03 PM 5 Comments


Sky News: Further Signs Of Property Slowdown

It's taken a while, but it's here.

Posted by doomwatch @ 11:13 AM 1 Comments

UK Banks are borrowing from the ECB rather than the BoE, hoping no-one will notice

Independent: Hamish McRae: Share prices seem remarkably sanguine if economic trouble is coming our way

"We still have a lot of strain evident in the money markets. It is intriguing to see reports that London banks are borrowing heavily in Frankfurt from the European Central Bank, rather than from the Bank of England, because they fear that borrowing in London would place a stigma on them."

Posted by paul @ 10:52 AM 2 Comments

Your house as seen by ...

Investment Postcards: Your house as seen by ...

While most people are gripped by anxiety at the mere thought of the downward spiral of the US housing market, pause for a moment of light-hearted entertainment by clicking on the link below. Your house may not necessarily be what it seems to you. Your lender, potential buyer, appraiser or tax assessor may have very different views http://investmentpostcards.wordpress.com/2007/10/04/your-house-as-seen-by-%e2%80%a6/

Posted by prieur du plessis @ 10:45 AM 0 Comments

More evidence of a slowdown in house prices has come from the UK's biggest mortgage lender, the Halifax.

BBC News: Halifax sees house prices slowing

The Halifax's research is now pointing in the same direction as other market surveys, such as those from its rival lender the Nationwide and from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. A further slowdown this autumn looks likely.

Posted by disillusioned @ 10:18 AM 0 Comments

Its Hotting Up

Telegraph: Meltdown costs Deutsche Bank 2.2bn

Deutsche Bank has become the latest bank to reveal the extent of losses following the US sub-prime collapse. Germany's biggest lender said it would write off 2.2bn (1.5bn) in the third quarter and issued a profits warning.

Posted by jonny parker @ 09:45 AM 0 Comments

It's Falling!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Guardian: House prices fall in September, says Halifax

"The average cost of a home in the UK fell by 0.6% in September, providing further evidence that the housing market is running out of steam" "Going forward, housing demand seems set to lose further momentum." Buy-to-losers, on top of subsidizing your tenants think of how much equity you have lost in September. I can help you: It is an astonishing 3% of your equity investment in just one month (assuming you are 80% debt leveraged). Ah ahhha ahha ahahah

Posted by confused76 @ 09:38 AM 28 Comments

And so it begins....Halifax announce 0.6% fall

Times: House price growth begins to slow

Thats Rightmove, Halifax, Hometrack.......

Posted by andy h @ 09:35 AM 0 Comments

Subprime Fears Overblown

Money-Rx Blog: James F. Smith (EconForecaster)

Dr. James F. Smith is the Chief Economist for Parsec Financial Management, Senior Fellow and Director, Center for Business Forecasting, Kenan Institute, University of North Carolina and former Chief Economist for the Society of Industrial and Office Realtors (SIOR). "The subprime mortgage problem is probably wildly overblown. Subprime mortgages are estimated to make up no more than $500 billion of the nations total $9.8 trillion of mortgages. Furthermore, at most $100 billion of these subprime mortgages are expected to default. This is not big enough to cause the turmoil that weve seen in global financial markets, suggesting that investors are overreacting."

Posted by t franklin @ 06:53 AM 0 Comments

Foxtons' hit by property slowdown or personal stupidity?

Property Investment Project: Pictures Tell A Thousand Words

Here's a picture of how the US Foxtons' division advertised one of their properties. They couldn't have done a worse job if they tried.

Posted by propertyguy @ 12:22 AM 0 Comments

Wednesday, October 3, 2007


Times: Merrill Lynch banker is the latest scalp in wake of credit crunch debacle

The Centre for Economics and Business Research has increased its prediction of City job cuts by 1,000 to 6,000 job losses due over the coming months. The independent think tank has, however, stuck to its forecast made in August of a 15 per cent reduction in the total annual bonus payout from last years record of 8.8 billion.

Posted by confused76 @ 10:47 PM 4 Comments


This Is Money: Fixed-rate borrowers 'in for a big shock'

Thousands of home-buyers on fixed-rate mortgages face a crippling 'payment shock' as a result of the global credit crunch, it was claimed last night.

Posted by garyb @ 09:32 PM 0 Comments

More evidence of dollar demise

Telegraph: Dollar's double blow from Vietnam and Qatar

"Vietnam, which has mid-sized reserves of $40bn, is seen as weather vane for the bigger Asian powers."
Looks like Asia +OPEC are getting used to the idea of floating against the dollar.
Here comes the Devaluation Chicken.....

Posted by voiceofreason @ 08:59 PM 7 Comments

The market is crumbling!

MortgageIntroducer: Advantage pulls products amid sector fears

"We have concentrated in the lighter adverse end of the market, where we can still offer 90 per cent Self-Certification products, alongside the Prime Self-Cert and BTL markets where we offer 90 per cent and 85 per cent LTV respectively. This is coupled with our unique Flexishare product that offers 97 per cent LTV, providing affordable financing for those wishing to purchase a home. Think of the impact on BTLose and remortgaging... I am going to book a seat at the auction house!

Posted by confused76 @ 08:32 PM 5 Comments

Rates will go down :(

BBC: Food costs send UK prices higher

Higher food costs were behind rising shop prices in September, according to figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC). BUT............ Analysts had previously expected the Bank to raise interest rates this autumn, but following the recent market turmoil it is now widely thought that rates will stay on hold at 5.75% and could even be lowered.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 07:53 PM 14 Comments

Sorry guys, the BTL market is broke !

Independent: Buy to let: The next regeneration

Would you believe....."In an uncertain property market, it's not easy for investors to pick a winner. No longer can you buy a decent place in a good postcode and watch the money roll in. You need to spot a neighbourhood that's almost sure to improve. And that's why regeneration areas are attracting attention"...I thought not!

Posted by alan @ 07:49 PM 5 Comments

Good Morning, Vietnam !

The Telegraph Online: Dollar's double blow from Vietnam and Qatar

Dollar's double blow from Vietnam and Qatar Vietnam is planning to cut its purchases of US Treasuries and other dollar bonds, raising fears that Asian central banks with control over two thirds of the world's foreign reserves may soon join the flight from US assets. Whooooppppps!

Posted by onyerhike @ 07:39 PM 1 Comments

More money for the Chancellor

Guardian: Stamp duty revenues hit record

Homebuyers contributed a record 6.4bn in stamp duty to government coffers last year, according to figures from Halifax. Revenues from this tax were 40% more than in 2005-2006

Posted by alan @ 07:29 PM 3 Comments

They are already talking this up in the States

CNN: Subprime; Bailout Backlash

Personally, I looked at buying a house. I could have got a teaser rate for two years, but I was concerned about what would happen after that. Don't these people think beyond 2 years. I can see this being on the political agenda here before very long...

Posted by bingo @ 06:03 PM 2 Comments

Will this stop the Doves from getting their way tomorrow when the BOE set interest rates for the coming month?

BBC News: Food costs send UK prices higher

While non-food prices fell 0.7% against a year ago, this was not enough to offset a 2.7% rise in food prices.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 05:56 PM 12 Comments

And we're past the worst of it !!

Herald Tribune: European urges U.S. to curb fall of dollar

"But the European Central Bank, focused on inflation risks, appeared intent on maintaining a course for higher interest rates when it meets on Thursday. That will offer little relief to the euro - and may even accelerate its rise." And thats the course the ECB will have to take whether they like it or not!

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 03:52 PM 0 Comments

Problems will run and run - official

Bloomberg: Credit Suisse Says US Mortgage Turmoil May Last

``We have seen severe investor pull-back and origination has all but dried up,'' Dougan said in his speech. ``U.S. mortgage credit will remain problematic through this year and perhaps through 2008,'' he said, adding that he doesn't see a return to more stable market conditions ``any time soon.''

Posted by alan @ 03:40 PM 0 Comments

It never rains but it pours

Independent: HBOS scraps annual mortgage targets

HBOS scrapped its annual targets for mortgage lending yesterday as Britain's biggest mortgage lender warned of a slowdown in the market for home loans. HBOS, which owns the Halifax brand, has targeted 15 to 20 per cent of net mortgage lending since 2004. But Andy Hornby, HBOS's chief executive, said the home loans market was going through a major repricing that would reduce demand and that it was not sensible to chase market share.

Posted by uncle chris @ 02:28 PM 4 Comments

The Double Failure of the So-Called Fed Model

Market Oracle: Lower Interest Rates = Lower Stock Market

A technical article (based on K-theory) that says since 1997 the correlation between IRs and stocks has reversed. Fallings IRs now result in falling stocks (since 1997).

The outlook is for 10-year T-bond yields to go below 3%, if not below 2%, and the stock market's P/E ratio to continue its seven year decline to below 10.

If lower IRs cannot hold stocks up, they wont hold property up either.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:59 PM 5 Comments

Ok which one of you nutters lent them the money

inthenews: Northern Rock 'suitor' secures funds

A private equity group rumoured to have expressed interest in Northern Rock has reportedly secured around 15 billion of funding which could be used for a takeover.

Posted by mrmickey @ 11:49 AM 8 Comments


FT.com: Deutsche sees 1.2bn profit despite charges

Another bank trapses in with a position it thinks it can retrench to and "restores confidence" in the process. Ohh goody - my confidence in these clowns couldn't be higher. Here is a question. Who audits the various big banks? Why were they accepting the audit value of these instruments? and what will they accept as the audited value now? Will they accept what the banks tell them?

Posted by whiteknight @ 11:26 AM 2 Comments

Borrowers and banks hit as credit crisis takes toll of homeowners

Times: Borrowers and banks hit as credit crisis takes toll of homeowners

I was about to complete on my first house purchase, but pulled out at the last minute because my gut told me I was paying too much and that the mortgage repayments would cripple me if they went up. Guess I made the right call although I felt as guilty as hell because the estate agent told me I had broken a chain and messed up a lot of people's plans. margaret, Enfield,

Posted by aloha @ 11:22 AM 0 Comments

Will buy-to-let investors bail out in time?

MoneyWeek: Why mortgages are about to get more expensive

As it becomes more expensive for consumers to borrow money, it simply won't be possible for house prices to keep rising. The big question is: will those buy-to-let investors bail out in time?

Posted by mary @ 11:14 AM 25 Comments

Forced sales or repossessions?

Mail: Payment shock in store for those on a fixed-rate mortgage

Everyone coming off a fixed rate in the coming months is likely to find themselves paying more, even if they able to secure a new fixed-rate deal... But those who have a County Court Judgment over an unpaid debt or a black mark on their credit record, perhaps because they fell behind with a mobile phone bill, will be in particular danger.

Posted by confused76 @ 11:12 AM 13 Comments

When banks get ruthless...how many UK sub prime players will collapse?

Firstrung: Bear Stearns sub prime lender denies rumours of collapse

Rooftop has dismissed claims it is in trouble after a source told Mortgage Introducer that its case load was down to a dozen a day. With the sector still adapting to the recent market turbulence across the US and UK financial sectors, it has been claimed that the US-funded lender was experiencing a notable downturn in business volumes. The source, who wished to remain anonymous, said the lender was only dealing with between 10 and 12 cases a day; a level of business which was unsustainable in the current conditions.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:11 AM 1 Comments

House price expectations moderate further

Firstrung: Consumer confidence rose in September despite unrest in the financial markets

Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: "The pick up in confidence has been largely driven by confidence in the labour market. When people feel secure in their employment it is perhaps not surprising that their general confidence levels are more robust. The effect of the recent financial turmoil on overall economic, and hence labour market conditions, is therefore crucial to consumers' confidence going forward. Early indications suggest that consumers may have been more affected by the initial run on Northern Rock, but any lasting effects will be dominated by the impact of recent events on the real economy."

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:08 AM 0 Comments

Stocks crash coming soon

The Telegraph: Jump off the deranged bull now

Do not ride this deranged speculative bull into late October. The balance of risk and reward are just too far out of kilter. Do not under any circumstances join the mad scramble for emerging market stocks. Cut positions in Latin America, Eastern Europe, Asia, and China.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:51 AM 5 Comments

Morgan Stanley has become the latest victim of the sub-prime housing crisis

Telegraph.co.uk: Morgan Stanley to cull 600 jobs in mortgage crisis

Morgan Stanley's restructuring will see it combine its three US mortgage units into one and close several offices. The bank said it would reduce the size of the business to "a level appropriate for the existing market". HSBC, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch have cut thousands of jobs in their mortgage businesses in recent weeks.

Posted by gettingpoorer @ 08:51 AM 0 Comments

The Peakist long term view of the situation

The Oil Drum: Economic Impact of Peak Oil Part 3: What's Ahead?

Link to part 1, which describes about our current economy, part 2 then explains the situation we are in, like debt. Part 3, this one discusses what this means for a post peak oil world. "If a scenario such as we are discussing happens in the next few years, spending time and money on attempts to extend our current lifestyle would be counterproductive. The decline would be so significant that we would not be able to maintain our new technologies in the years ahead" "Hopefully, a scenario such as what I have described will never happen. Thinking about it, and why it might or might not happen, can perhaps give us better insight as to how we should prepare for the years ahead." I certainly wouldn't rely on BTL for a solution!!

Posted by planning4acrash @ 12:04 AM 1 Comments

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

"And so we leave the Age of Cheap Oil and move into the future with Stagflation".

The Oil Drum: Europe: A Dollar beyond the eighties

Eiry looking figures that suggest Japan is ahead of the game when it comes to a race to the bottom and stagflation.

Posted by planning4acrash @ 11:58 PM 1 Comments

Lenders seek right balance between volume, margin and credit risk

Times: Borrowers and banks hit as credit crisis takes toll of homeowners

A sharp reduction in mortgage business profitability prompts major lender to scrap annual mortgage lending targets and concentrate on more profitable markets instead.

Posted by enuii @ 10:59 PM 5 Comments

"Plans to build 362k houses risk creating housing shortage"

BirminghamPost: Buy-to-let slump sparks homes warning

Please read this lunacy. At any rate, the messagge is quite clear: Buy-to-losers are sh***ing in their pants.

Posted by confused76 @ 10:23 PM 3 Comments

Mortgages are more expensive!

MortgageSolutions: Sweeping product changes at N Rock

"Buy-to-let fixed and tracker ranges will start at 6.09%, with a maximum LTV of 85%."

Posted by confused76 @ 10:19 PM 4 Comments

Straight from the horses mouth

Estate Agency News: 'STAND BY FOR A TOUGH SPRING!'

COUNTRYWIDE plc, the UKs largest estate agency with more than 1,000 offices, is warning of a tough spring for estate agency in 2008, in one of its rare comments since the groups takeover by Apollo Asset Management LLP in May.

Posted by mr cobblepot @ 08:32 PM 2 Comments

Do bears poo in the woods!!!

The American Prospect: The Alarming Parallels Between 1929 and 2007

Has deregulation left the economy at risk of another 1929-scale crash? Should the Fed keep bailing out speculators? Kuttner testified on these and related questions today before the House Financial Services Committee.

Posted by mr cobblepot @ 08:22 PM 3 Comments

US news finally hits BBC site

BBC: US homes sales plumb record low

Pending sales of US homes fell to a record low in August as would-be homebuyers had difficulty obtaining mortgages from cautious lenders

Posted by holding out @ 05:13 PM 1 Comments

US Greedy Flat Buyers Come A Cropper...

Reuters: Home

"I wanted to follow the American Dream," she says. "I wanted to be an entrepreneur and make some money". Shame. "The mention of speculators spurs a flurry of cliches by industry experts: there's no free lunch, trees don't grow to the sky, not having a place to sit down when the music stops." Couldn't put it better myself. Andrea Wolkenberg, 50, director of "pain management" might have even more pain to manage soon ;-)

Posted by mikeyp @ 04:06 PM 4 Comments

Well that's what you get if you destroy a currency

Allafrica: Zimbabwe: ZSE Shares Close At Fresh Record Levels

ZIMBABWE Stock Exchange shares buried early losses to close at fresh record levels last week led by minings.

Posted by mrmickey @ 03:15 PM 3 Comments

Answer: Far from it

Money Week: Is the credit crisis over yet?

The number of new mortgages approved last month fell to its lowest level since April, while net lending, at 8.46bn, was the lowest since February 2006. Hometrack warned that house prices in England and Wales were static in September, for the second month in a row. On top of this, mortgage equity withdrawal, which has been helping to fuel consumer spending, fell sharply in the second quarter, from 13.1bn to 10bn.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 02:11 PM 1 Comments


Guardian: House prices tumble - and continue to spiral upwards

"But anyone wanting to sell their house on the strength of these figures might be in for a surprise."

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:44 PM 3 Comments

Bubble trouble in housing market

BBC: Bubble trouble in housing market

The Beeb finally a bear ? "Is there a bubble in the British housing market? We may soon find out."

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:37 PM 0 Comments

The property time bomb

Torygraph: The property time bomb

... about to go booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom [that's boom, as in explode, as opposed to boom in prices :) ] "Steep mortgage increases and falling house prices point to a market teetering on chaos."

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:23 PM 0 Comments

The difficult job of balancing growth and inflation

International Herald Tribune: Recession fears spur rally in U.S. bonds

For the first time since 1995, the U.S. bond market is rallying on the assumption that the Federal Reserve has relegated inflation to a secondary concern and now views a recession as a much greater threat to the economy.... ...The bond market's unusual buoyancy is a consequence of the worst U.S. housing slump in 16 years, a slowing rate of inflation and the seventh weekly decline in short-term corporate lending.

Posted by disillusioned @ 10:53 AM 1 Comments

Dr. Thornberg's views are even more important when you consider that he forecasted the current subprime crisis nearly a year ago.

Money-Rx Blog: Subprime and Recession Fears - Dr. Christopher Thornberg Comments

...Price increases and then decreases in real estate alone cannot cause a recession eitherafter all home prices simply reflect a financial swapfor each home buyer paying a high price there is a home seller making a handsome profit. The issue is the consumer reaction to perceived home wealth. The economy over the last few years has been out of balance. Consumers have been on a spending binge fueled by home price appreciation. Savings rates have been negative and the US overall has been running a massive trade deficit as consumers have used mortgage equity withdrawals to expand spending. The old rules about housing do not apply anymore. Now the housing market can cause a recession....

Posted by disillusioned @ 10:48 AM 0 Comments

Rate cut speculation hits

Reuters: Sterling softer, hurt by bank news

Investors remained cautious of buying the British currency amid worries about the health of the banking sector and possible interest rate cuts in coming months.

Posted by alan @ 09:42 AM 0 Comments

U.K. Housing Risk Is `Substantial,' Morgan Stanley's Miles Says

Fears of buy-to-let collapse as prices slump by 35 per cent

Daily Mail: News Article

Things must be bad if both the Mail and Express are reporting this!

Posted by david smith's sub prime... @ 09:13 AM 5 Comments

Northern Rock in Fire Sale?

The Times: Business Article

Looks as if the Bank of England have just lost 28 billion. This parrot is a dead parrot... If they are spending a billion each couple of days and have already spent 10 billion of the 28 billion (on Saturday), how much longer can they last or will they just get another tranche of finance? What does this say for David Smith's view that this will not be inflationary and can he devise a course (degree standard of course), teaching Gordonomics?

Posted by orwell @ 08:35 AM 3 Comments

Monday, October 1, 2007

Three letter event getting nearer?

Telegraph: UK house prices flat for second month

"Average prices in the UK remained unchanged last month, pushing the annual rate of growth back to 5pc, from a high of 6.8pc in April. Only 8.6pc of the country recorded a rise in house prices, Hometrack's latest monthly survey revealed." So if 8.6pc rose, then the remaining 91.4pc was static or fell? "The average home in the UK sold for 176,300 almost 95pc of the average asking price typically taking almost seven weeks to sell." So buyers should be negotiating discounts. I'm beginning to think that a three letter event is creeping up on us.

Posted by quiet guy @ 10:27 PM 1 Comments

Am I having flashbacks did somebody just wake up in the shower

Bloomberg: U.S. Stocks Rally, Sending Dow Average to Record

I'm a little confused, did we just survve the credit crunch with no ongoing problems? Is the debt mountain OK to go on growing, should i buy th ebig new house, can somebody explain this to me 'cos I obviously have lost the ability to read the words infornt of my eyes. It's OK the world is back to normal

Posted by backseatcrasher @ 10:15 PM 4 Comments

Too Early

FT.com: The right response to Northern Rock

Its too early to be noting down serious conclusion. By all means prepare for the next bank run or run on currency. This problem is only getting started. Some people seem to think its over. Thats worrying in itself.

Posted by whiteknight @ 09:43 PM 7 Comments

Shell takes a pensions holiday

BBC News: Life is rosy if you're in oil!

Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell has temporarily suspended payments to its pension scheme. The "pension holiday" is a sign the fund - one of the biggest UK pension schemes - has a healthy surplus.

Posted by webmaster @ 08:24 PM 7 Comments

Jeez I find this depressing...

Firstrung: Personal debt figures show alarming trends

Once again thanks to Richard and his team at Credit Action for these sobering stats. We say 'sobering' but quite frankly after compiling the data we're not so sure the guys at credit action don't rush to the nearest pub to drown their sorrows awaiting the impending 'financial armageddon'. If any doubt were needed that the UK is simply; a one track economy, built on personal debt, unerpinned by the illusion that we can get rich by selling houses to one another at increasing prices then this is it. We'll discuss the FTB stats separately, however, here's the mortgage related stats that stuck out for the Firstrung team:

Posted by converted lurker @ 07:57 PM 3 Comments

British owners of homes in Spain and Eastern Europe could see the value of their investments fall as a result of the credit crunch

independent.co.uk: Overseas holiday homes to fall in value as properties flood the market

Michael Ball, professor of real estate at Reading University, said that retreats across the Continent could fall in value as a glut of properties come on to the market after years of speculative buying. Savills, the upmarket estate agents, said that the value of foreign homes owned by Britons has risen from 7bn in 1994 to 52bn today. In Spain, a crackdown on rogue developers and the share price collapse of many property companies has led to stagnation

Posted by chris @ 06:16 PM 1 Comments

Citi stuns investors with 60% profit warning

The Times: Business Article

Shitti Group Are Well In It !!!!!!

Posted by david smith's sub prime... @ 04:44 PM 6 Comments

"It's my pension"...er...

Firstrung: Homeowners too reliant on property equity for future prosperity

Research has shown 3.2 million British homeowners are placing too much faith in their homes to fund retirement. This is leaving 7 per cent of the population dangerously exposed to fluctuations in the property market and overly reliant on the outcome of interest rate movements. Ten per cent of 35-44 year olds are planning on retiring with the income they receive from property assets, compared with 8 per cent of 45-54 year olds and 6 per cent of 25-34 year olds

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:33 PM 12 Comments

Saga lifestyle catching up?

Firstrung: Retired bankrupts double in past five years

The percentage of bankrupts who are retired has more than doubled over the last 5 years to reach 7% of all bankrupts in 2007, up from just 3% in 2002 according to research from Wilkins Kennedy, the Top 30 accountancy firm. That would put the total number of pensioners who have become insolvent at approximately 7,900 over the last year, up from just 900 in 2002. Wilkins Kennedy says that this trend is set to continue as increased life expectancy puts greater strain on the limited savings of pensioners whilst hikes in the price of food and fuel piles on short term pressure.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:31 PM 2 Comments

HIPS stopping prices from falling

Hometrack / Mortgage Solutions: House prices static over September

"Despite falling levels of demand and declining sales volumes, a lack of 'saleable' homes coming to the market is acting as a support to prices."
Does this mean that a lot of "unsaleable" homes are coming onto market then ?
Also: ".. year on year rate of growth has slipped back to 5.0% from 6.8% ..."

Posted by voiceofreason @ 12:07 PM 3 Comments

LSR quarterly research out

The Telegraph: House prices 'heading for fall next year'

Miss Choyleva was speaking after the publication of the latest Lombard Street Research/Daily Telegraph housing affordability barometer. The index has fallen 11.5 per cent in the past year alone to 85.3 points. Miss Choyleva said it was heading rapidly towards a dangerous level, where housing becomes so expensive it tees up a dramatic correction in prices.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:30 AM 37 Comments

Further evidence of credit crunch

guardian: Debtmatters plummets nearly 70%

Annoying though this is, because I have shares in the company (d'oh!!), it is still positive news. The fact that banks are refusing to write off debts (because they need all the cash they can get) is further evidence of the credit crunch. Ultimately this will mean a big increase in bankruptcies and forced property sales. The spiral knock-on effect is showing itself.

Posted by inbreda @ 10:47 AM 1 Comments

Chancellor reconsiders savings pledge

Another U-turn - surprise surprise!: Telegraph

The Chancellor has staged an embarrassing climbdown by pledging to guarantee only the first 35,000 of savings held in British banks and building societies rather than the 100,000 he originally suggested. Mr Darling has backed down from his 100,000 pledge under pressure from banks and the Association of British Insurers, which said it would distort the market.

Posted by uncle chris @ 10:46 AM 19 Comments

According to BBC, house price inflation has "fallen for the third month in a row, to stand at just 9%"

BBC "News": Mortgage lending slows, says Bank

The article starts off objectively enough, but then the unattributed comment that house price inflation "stands at just 9%" slips in. Oh dear. Those young and not particularly bright online news editors are letting their biased, lazy colours show again. Only 9% growth p.a.?

The horror.
The horror.

Posted by paul @ 10:37 AM 3 Comments

Gold Gold Gold

The Telegraph: Dollar crunch puts gold centre stage

THE dominoes are toppling. What began as a credit crunch has turned into a dollar crunch. We are witnessing a run on the world's paramount reserve currency, an event that occurs twice a century or so, and never with a benign outcome. The US dollar has fallen through parity against the Canadian dollar and plummeted to all-time lows against a basket of currencies. This is dangerous. None of the mature economic blocs seems able to take the strain, let alone step in to restore order.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:12 AM 11 Comments

HELL YEAH! - The truth about BTL starts to emerge - Where's Landlords Association?

Telegraph: Buy-to-let crisis as new flat prices fall 40 pc

The buy-to-let market is in crisis as 40 per cent has been wiped off the value of new purpose-built investment properties in the past year, a survey by The Daily Telegraph has found. I wonder whether these guys are still going to bang on about 'being in it for the long term' when their investments are hemmhoraging cash month after month?!?

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:19 AM 37 Comments

what is britain coming to?

bbc news: More pensioners declared bankrupt

The proportion of pensioners going bankrupt has more than doubled in five years, research has suggested. Of bankruptcies in England and Wales during 2007, 7% involved retired people - up from 3% in 2002, a report said. This meant 7,900 pensioners were declared bankrupt over the past year, compared to 900 five years previously

Posted by it will happen @ 07:23 AM 1 Comments

New Build Prices Fall By 40%!

The Telegraph: Buy-to-let crisis as new flat prices fall 40 pc

The buy-to-let market is in crisis as 40 per cent has been wiped off the value of new purpose-built investment properties in the past year, a survey by The Daily Telegraph has found.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 07:04 AM 0 Comments

A gold rated Swiss Bank admits to LOSSES..not just lower profits

FT.com: UBS latest victim of credit turmoil

I am just watching CNBC and I see that they have lost the money on AAA+ Super Senior Secured portions of CDOs they invested in. As surely as night follows day, Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs will have all been hit. Furthermore, tier 2 and tier 3 banks (especially in ClubMedLand - Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Portugal) will have loaded up on the lower tranche debts - the equity tiers where the losses will be even more severe. UBS will sack 1,500 investment bankers, each of whom has up to 8 support staff associated with their jobs. Before Christmas. This is a Q3 loss. There will be even bigger Q4 losses and attendant contagion as all the other players who had exposure to the same CDOs are forced to mark-to-market in the same way.

Posted by lvmreader @ 06:27 AM 4 Comments

U.K. Housing Set To Implode-Pound Set To Slide

forexfactory.com: Standard and Poor's has released a new report that says U.K. mortgage rates will reset to a significantly higher rates over the next 12 to 18 months.

While the report goes on to esimate that the average homeowner will see an increase of around 26% in their monthly payments, the most severe scenario sees increases rising as high as 60%

Posted by chris @ 02:43 AM 0 Comments

The REAL Subprime - the highly leveraged

FT.com: High earners hit debt trouble

This is just the beginning.

Posted by lvmreader @ 12:02 AM 4 Comments

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