Saturday, October 20, 2007

Not quite sure this is right. When unemployment rises we will have serious problems

UK 'will swell to 75m' as migrants raise births

"The impact of an additional 15 million people would obviously be considerable: economic, environmental, social and ethnic…"The absent-minded commitment into which we have drifted, to house a further 15 million people, must be the biggest unintended consequence of government policy of almost any century. As it is by no means unavoidable, being almost entirely dependent upon continued immigration, it might be thought worthy of discussion. In official circles, there has been none." But is really anyone at the steering wheel??

Posted by confused76 @ 10:28 PM (1097 views)
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7 thoughts on “Not quite sure this is right. When unemployment rises we will have serious problems

  • The article starts to fall apart when the subject of housing crops up.

    Quote, ‘The rapidly growing population will increase demand for housing, putting pressure on green-belt land and shoring up property prices for years to come. Gordon Brown has promised three million new homes by 2020, yet the new forecast suggests that the population by that year will be five million higher than today. A trend for more young people to live alone is also expanding the number of new households.’

    Trouble is all the average young things will be in 1 bed flats due to the fact that is all they will be able to afford, plus I cannot for the life of me see how the UK economy will function with such a high level of population.

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  • In adverse economic conditions migrants leave to where jobs are.
    It would be interesting to find out how the NHS will work when all the asian doctors and nurses leave.

    Short sighted crap argument. More to infuriate and raise emotions and find a scape goat rather than find the source of the problem.

    Also remember almost equal number of britishers leave the UK. They are also going somewhere and creating havoc for people.
    Spanish and French house prices have seen higher house price inflation because of old britsh people selling there over priced house and going to settle in these countried rather than leaving anything for there children.

    And also as they are mostly old, they are the worst impact of there health service. i think the French has now stopped there free health service for new settlers.

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  • japanese uncle says:

    If or rather when the UK economy suffers total collapse triggerred by HPC leading to full-scale depression, (when welfare benefits will no longer be available), there will be a U-turn of those massive East European immigrants going back home, seeking any better lifestyle. African immigrants may be a different story, though.

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  • Question:

    Looking at the comments after the article why if people are so peed off is no-one taking any action…direct or indirect

    Perhaps japanese uncle is right that the catalyst will be a hpc

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  • As I understand it we need a huge influx of immigrants to raise the you ng population in order to keep the economy functioning as all the baby-boomers retire.

    I would also assume that one effect of retiring baby-boomers is that they will finally relinquish their large family homes before they die. Not entirely sure the article has taken account of this sort of thing which makes it look, to my mind, a very one sided and ill thought out article. Presumablyinfluenced by a VI or written by a bit of a numpty?

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  • If the centre of economic gravity is moving away from the US and Europe and towards the ’emerging economies’ of Latin America, India, China etc. net migration could be of people from the former moving towards the latter. All these official projections assume that western economic dominance is permanent.

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  • Broaden Your Minds says:

    If the population is scheduled to rise by 15m – 22m in the next 43 years, inbreda, the target will be a net figure of births, deaths, imm- and emigration. Similarly housing is released by death and emigration of a household and taken up the creation of new households through immigration and household splitting. The latter is important and a household split can occur (eg) through divorce and children forming their own place. During high HP and/or a poor economy (unemployment) both of these factors can slow – effectively bottling up to create significant release demand when HP is more affordable (providing economy/employment are good), thus providing a cushion.

    Of course HP can crash – like the stock market – due to sentiment – but popn growth and scarcity will keep the medium and longer term value of the asset on the rise.

    If such huge population growth occurs and insufficient housing is created then the H asset price will be pushed up. If, ennui, young people have to live in smaller units, that will be one way to split away from the household. If the population grows hugely we can assume that the percentage unemployment will drop as immigration tends to be into jobs, not claimants (unless the govt mess up). More population creates more taxes = more jobs. The welfare, education and transport systems will, of course, grind ever slower but the UK economy would prosper (again govt willing).

    Jap Uncle – a total collapse triggered by HPC leading to full-scale depression is a negative minority view to which of course you are entitled. However the govt of the day will do its utmost to stop this happening, after all the created the boom and have fuelled it on the way. It is in their interest to have flat – slowly deflating or slow inflating – prices. As we are out of the euro then interest rates can – and will – be used to stop “a total collapse”. Why would they do otherwise when they want to stay in power.

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