Sunday, September 2, 2007

Merryn tells it like it is – credit crunch = trigger

Time to rent, not own

BACK in January when I finally managed to sell my flat to a more-money-than-sense foreign buyer I registered my details with all the local estate agents. The original point of doing this was to find a house to rent, but there was no persuading Paddington’s property experts that was all I wanted. They all demanded details of the kind of house I’d like to own. Eventually, partly so I didn’t have to spend any more time explaining why in overheated markets renting is vastly superior, I told them I’d like a four-bedroom house with a garden near Hyde Park for between £850,000 and £1.2m. And that was the end of that. For the next eight months I didn’t hear a word from any of them. Until last week. Then I had four calls in a row

Posted by bearfacts @ 10:36 AM (988 views)
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6 thoughts on “Merryn tells it like it is – credit crunch = trigger

  • It would have been unthinkable for an article like this to appear in the Times a year ago. This will help to make the public a bit more careful about investing in property now. We haven’t reached the tipping point when falling expectations create a crash but it’s coming …

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  • This means that the top end of the market (and lets face it £1m+ is the top end of the market) is far more fickle than we were led to believe, and those richer than most are now eager to offload.

    Property pundits and estate agents must hate Merryn.

    Smart, good looking and speaks Japanese well. What’s not to like?

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  • I don’t think its only about 1m+ properties its all coming down.
    This articles is from our bearish friend “Editor of Moneyweek.com”, who is prudently bearish as I’m.

    I think she makes an important point of mortgages rising by 0.5% just because of the recent crisis.
    But she did not mention how it will effect 2,000,000 mortgages coming up for renewal in the coming year.
    Also all the reposessions, rent reposessions , owner credit etc etc she talks about has come into the market before the rate rises have even see the light of day to these mortgages.

    That is why I think UK market is still untoughed by this interest rate rises.

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  • Supply of rental accomodations in central london is becoming quite short. Landlords prefer to put property on the market instead.
    We are seeing a replay of the soft patch of 2003/04, except this time borrowing is darn expensive
    Just wait for the first layoffs at the city banks and it will be a nice slide from there on

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  • voiceofreason says:

    A bubble by it’s nature will pop unexpectedly.
    I noticed that even David Smith has started mentioning bubbles & crashes indirectly in his suggested reading list added to the base of a recent Blog entry.
    http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/000552.html#more
    Here’s the list – David adds more comments.
    JK Galbraith’s , The Great Crash
    Charles Kindleberger’s Manias, Panics and Crashes
    Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay
    Edward Chancellor’s Devil Take the Hindmost
    When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management, by Roger Lowenstein,
    Inventing Money: the Story of Long-Term Capital Management and the Legends Behind It by Nicholas Dunbar
    Greed by Frank Partnoy
    Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan

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  • Just read When Genius Failed and bought “Black Swan” over a month ago.

    I occasionally correspond with Mr Taleb – Empirica LLC used to be based within Paloma Partners in Greenwich.

    I have documented evidence of predicting all this for the last 5 years – right down to the contagion.

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