Friday, September 21, 2007

Houses – “business as usual” ???

Where next after Northern Rock?

Bullish article on house prices, "fundamentals remain strong, Employment is high, the economy is growing, interest rates are still historically low and, most importantly, the supply of property is still tight."

Posted by ds_t @ 09:57 AM (865 views)
Please complete the required fields.



6 thoughts on “Houses – “business as usual” ???

  • I hope this is published because it’s the third time of posting and it’s definitely relevent to this article!

    I’ve been doing some research searching rightmove for properties in bristol added within 24hours:

    Fri ~ 50
    Mon ~ 64
    Tue ~ 82
    Wed ~ 164 (!)
    Thu ~120
    Fri (just now) 140

    This is numbers put on market WITHIN 24 hours of searching. Loads of 3-4 bed properties. Lack of supply suddenly is no longer an arguement. HIPS is no longer an arguement.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • tyrellcorporation says:

    V Interesting Si. I might start doing the same study down here in Devon.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • “Higher interest rates meant that the market was slowing down anyway, even before the troubles in the financial markets. But the fundamentals remain strong. Employment is high, the economy is growing, interest rates are still historically low and, most importantly, the supply of property is still tight.”

    He’s being asked about his views for the future, but basing all his arguments only on the past and the present. Clearly there is a flaw to this way of thinking.

    Employment is high NOW. The article itself confirms that, “several London investment banks have frozen recruitment and some are laying off staff” and it’s not just the city that will suffer even if the market only “stagnates” (NOT likely to happen) – less work for builders, electricians, plumbers, surveyors, estate agents, solicitors/conveyancers, mortgage brokers, mortgage lenders; and then there’s the knock on to home improvements no longer required when people move into new houses (DIY stores, double glazing sales, conservatories, home furnishings); and then there’s the knock-on due to people not being able to MEW because the value of their house isn’t increasing anymore (so that’s car dealerships, travel agents, restuarants, electrical goods, etc, etc).

    IF the economy continues to grow then that knocks his argument about low interest rates because they’ll have to keep rising. But as housing and the city have been two main drivers of the economy, maintaining growth is unlikely too.

    And interest rates may be still historically low, but they’re a damn sight higher than when many people first took out their 125% mortgages at 6 times income, certainly sufficiently higher to be causing some real strife. And that’s if they can even still QUALIFY for a mortgage.

    “most importantly, the supply of property is still tight” – the supply isn’t tight if no-one can afford to buy because they don’t qualify for a mortgage anymore. It isn;t tight if the buyers hold off because they think the market’s dropping. It’s not tight if there are people struggling to meet their existing mortgage commintments and so being forced to sell (either of their own volition to avoid being repossessed, or through waiting and being repossessed). It’s not tight if BTL’s see they’re making less money than they would sticking their ill-gotten gains in a bank account and so start cashing in.

    I suppose I shouldn’t rise to this VI bait all the time, but it annoys me that such clearly barking nonsense gets published, and it annoys me that there will actually be people out there who believe it, in part because they’re too lazy to think and research for themselves.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    Cracking work Si. This is precicely the sort of simple, factual and intelligible information the housing market is desperate for.

    I wonder if there is any way of automating and publishing the information. ow long before the same Nazi censors that stabbed PropertySnake turn up?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Top work Si,

    Location: within 3 miles of my postcode (South of) Chelmsford.

    2 weeks ago: 2 properties under £200k

    Today: 12 properties under £200k

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • I’ve been searching for a place in bristol to live for the last 4 months. Never anything that I (or any other sane person) could afford. I’m dumbfounded by the speed of turnaround, it’s like a bomb’s gone off. Certainly puts weight on my suspicions that a very large proportion of property in bristol is owned as an investment of one form or another.

    Loads of tiny 1 bed flats have just turned up and are on the market at ~£160k…. I don’t think so!!!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



Add a comment

  • Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
  • Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user´s views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
  • Please adhere to the Guidelines

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>