Tuesday, September 18, 2007

20% chance of a 10% drop in London

10% chance of property crash, says RICS economist

Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), told Reuters that while talk of a "crash" was legitimate and not irresponsible, homeowners were unlikely to see a repeat of the previous slump. Mr Rubinsohn said he had revised down his forecast for the market over the next 12 to 15 months from 3% growth to a flattening of prices. In London, however, he said there was a 20% chance of a 10% decline in prices over the next 12 months

Posted by confused76 @ 01:23 PM (1055 views)
Please complete the required fields.



8 thoughts on “20% chance of a 10% drop in London

  • Would be interesting to know what is the chance of a 5% drop, maybe 50%?
    and that of a 2% drop? maybe 80%?
    Chance of prices going up? 0.01%?

    BTLers, think about it!!!!
    Sorry, you are in for the long term

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • Poor old BTLers – BTL (bound-to-lose)

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • I love revisable forecasts.

    “Mr Rubinsohn said he had revised down his forecast ”

    And next week he will revise it again. And again, and again. Until house prices have dropped 90% and he can say ” I told you so. I predicted all of this”.

    Someone needs to explain the use of a prediction if it is in a constant state of flux.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • i personally think things are being held up in a BS way and the crash will much worse when the final sh*t comes home from USA

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • A 20% chance of a 10% decline over the next 12 months … and with an increasing chance of 10% per month, on an increasing percentage decline of 5% per month … maybe. All sounds very plausible to me.

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • We have already had forecasts of “a period of stability” and “a slowdown in growth” it is good to see a new one in “a flattening of prices”.

    So as “a flattening of prices” is a downward revision from 3% growth, he must mean 0% growth in the total UK market over the next 12 – 15 months.

    So he is forecating property in at least 50% of the UK going down.

    So the actual headline should read “Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), told Reuters that he is now forecasting a property slump in many parts of the UK over the next 12 – 18 months.

    See, he’s not that stupid, you just have to read between the lines, even though he is obviously optimistic to the extreme!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • What does RICS need an economist for ?

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



  • captain sensible says:

    I think what he really means is ‘my livelihood depends upon mugs continuing to pay ridiculous prices for property so please believe me when I pick wildly optomistic figures out of the air’.

    I read the other day that some mortgage lenders, worried about the risk of overvaluation, were requiring more than one survey on each property. Maybe RICS will spot that this effect of a downturn means that work for its members could double if it starts to talk the market down!

    Reply
    Please complete the required fields.



Add a comment

  • Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
  • Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user´s views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
  • Please adhere to the Guidelines

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>