Tuesday, August 7, 2007

More bad news

Number who lose homes is soaring

Louise Brittain, head of personal insolvency at accountancy firm Baker Tilly, said the figures did not reflect the three interest rate rises this year. "That's when we'll have a disaster on our hands," she said.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:28 PM (2824 views)
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15 thoughts on “More bad news

  • tyrellcorporation says:

    ‘Repossessions are still well below the levels of 1991, when 76,000 properties were repossessed, at a rate of 208 a day’

    Current rates are 77 repos per day!

    WOW! this is much higher than I thought it would be for this stage of the cycle. With thousands of people coming off low rates over the next 12 months I think we will see repo levels returning to early 90’s levels quite easily.

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  • I agree. I was not expecting the current figure to be over a third of the ammount in the 90’s.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    Anybody know what the repos per day figure was for 1989.
    This should give us an idea of the likely peak amount

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  • 77 houses repossessed per day and growing exponentially.

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  • If the above source is correct, and you guys are correct in your guess that we’re in an equivalent stage in an equivalent cycle to the house price market in 1989, and that other factors that might effect the reposession rate play out in the same way, then we might expect an increase in reposessions of around 400% over the next two years.

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    I make it about 43 a day in 1989. If that’s right things are already pretty dire.

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  • holding out says:

    89 actually seems to be a low mark as repos in 87 & 88 are actually higher. But then they triple for 90 and then double (nearly) again for 91. Of course nobody wants to repo’d if they think prices are still more than they paid for it and a forced sale is preferable to a repo – In 89 people still thought prices only go up. Once prices stall as they are in some parts then a repo in a lot of cases is preferable which should further lower prices and the whole thing should become a downward spiral.

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  • Distant_daz says:

    What confidence in future performance can anybody take from a single figure which represents a dynamic relationship? Just because its ‘only’ 77/d and the previous run was > 200/d that proves nothing. How simplistic.

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  • So 28000 for the year? That’s 17000 morwe than was expected…

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  • Retiredbanker` says:

    Although it seems that the conditions necessary for HPC are gathering momentum, spare a thought for the victims. Each repossession
    (excepting those relating to BTLetters) probably represents a tragedy for some poor family.
    When working I sometimes had dealings with people who had lost all their financial assets, including pension policies. Even though this
    was invariably their own fault, nevertheless it was not a pleasant experience.

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  • The fact that there was a considerable build up to 1989 makes it clear that these things do not happen overnight. If 2005 was a buildup then it looks dodgey for the next year or so!

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  • 77 a day with the highest being 208 so we are 37% of the way there. What with “forced selling” and also the proliferation of buyback schemes what would be the current true repo rate if these were unavailable? With further IR rises and a stagnant / falling market these options will become less available. I wonder whether, at that time, 208 would be deemed as low?

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  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    Just a thought, the source is the Torygraph, so if Brown’s bounce is predicated on housing they will be particularly VI to show him up.
    I’m not saying it’s spin, but worth viewing with note of caution all the same.
    On the other hand, they may be exposing some Labour book-cooking.
    It rings true but perhaps a little more than expected.

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  • Yes RB you are exactly right. It is ok for all these people, us and the ponificating economists to talk about accommodation like an ‘investment’ product… repossessions and they will come … will mean misery and sadness.

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