Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Convergence of their Theories based upon the Long Wave Hypothesis
Written in 1998, this paper looks at the works of 4 economists (Smith, Marx, Kondratieff and Keynes) with respect to long-wave theories.
The article is clearly dated by viewing the internet as "a new business paradigm" which the bursting of the dot-com bubble proved incorrect.
The author clearly thought that another debt-level expansion was not possible as debt levels were at saturation limits back then. He did not foresee US IR going to 1% allowing another surge of debt levels to 360pc of GDP.
The worrying aspect is that even if we do have a depression, there is no labour-based innovation that will lead us to the next upswing in the long-wave cycle
The coming depression will last until this labour-based innovation can be discovered and implemented.