Tuesday, August 14, 2007

BIG NEWS! – Does anyone believe these figures anymore?!?

U.K. Inflation Unexpectedly Slows Below BOE Target

The stitch-up is going well for the BOE!!! The U.K.'s inflation rate unexpectedly dropped by the most in five years to settle below the Bank of England's target, weakening the case for further interest-rate increases. Consumer prices rose 1.9 percent from a year earlier, the least since March 2006, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The reading compares with June's result of 2.4 percent and the 2.3 percent median forecast of 33 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Prices dropped 0.6 percent on the month, the most since January.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:51 AM (487 views)
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48 thoughts on “BIG NEWS! – Does anyone believe these figures anymore?!?

  • Sterling is currently in Free Fall

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  • I don’t beleive a word of it. I know my outgoing are going up at more than 1.9%.

    CPI – Conspiracy Price Index
    RPI – Real Price Index

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    Still, looking on the bright side, China’s inflation is raging and Sterling is falling – a perfect storm is brewing and I feel confident these figures are just a blip – a consequence of an overvalued pound.

    Oil is up into the $70 dollar area again and food prices are on the up despite the much vaunted supermarket price war (of which I’ve seen bugger all!).

    Talking of which the BBC is so quick to report an imminent supermarket price war. My guess is that Tescos PR dept hands out a press release to the inept BBC hacks and they just publish it no questions asked. The price of a few items goes down to nearly zero, some farmers go bust, prices go back up, no-one really notices…ad nauseam!

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  • george monsoon says:

    So in reality, how is this going to affect King’s minions? rate drop in September anyone? or at the least, no further hikes? Is bloomberg a reliable source? Are there any political interests in camp bloomberg?

    There is definitely a consipracy of sorts taking place here.. The government are actively covering up a huge surge in inflation. My outgoings have more or less doubled in the last 12 months. I have had to cut down my savings by 150 quid a month to cover the massive increase in prices across the board.

    This is now really starting to put the willies up me. I hate the term conspiracy, but I can’t think of a better way to describe the nature of our current government. Every day there are a hundred new liberty crushing rules issued that only serve to control us and now we are being lied to so blatantly and everyone is ignoring it or refusing to question the lies. Are we heading for a facist state?

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  • C'mon Correction says:

    This just highlights the fact of how much fiction is in reports and stats currently in the UK. More telling than the CPI dropping (which is next to useless as a measure) is RPI dropping. IF house prices are rising way and above 10% yoy and rent prices are increasing (plus all the other increases like higher oil and energy prices) how can RPI possibly fall ?????? They have a big weighting, Tesco churning out cheaper tins of beans than Asda isn’t gonna to effect it.

    I’m sorry, house price increases have got to be falling now – either the house price reports are wrong or both inflation reports are wrong – or they’re all fiddled to fool us into taking on ever more debt.

    £2 TRILLION pounds sterling UK public debt by Feb ’08 is my prediction at current trends. I’m starting to get angry about how stupid the UK is acting under this government currently.

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  • Nothing …. I repeat nothing I pay for has only gone up by only 1.9% in the last year, whether it be council tax, petrol, heating oil, food, train fares and the like. These figures bear no relation to the world I live in. What a sorry state politics has come to if we all think this is a cynical manipulation of the figures ahead of an election.

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  • http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6945557.stm

    I do not see how this is possible, I work at a heavy engineering firm and our raw materials prices are going through the roof. An example of this is stainless steel which has risen dramatically (http://www.cruspi.com/). China is buying everything at the moment and any non Chinese firms are paying through the nose for goods, which means the Chinese are starting to pay more which of course raises the costs of their exports.

    Some one please tell based on this alone how inflation can have possibly fallen.

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  • Inflation has been well above target for over a year now, and the bank hasn’t been too bothered about stopping it. Falling below target by 0.1% really shouldn’t prompt action at all.

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  • George Monsoon – Are we heading for a facist state?

    We’ve already arrived at a facist state and are moving quickly…

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  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    Presumably 6% would cook the goose so someone decided to fiddle the figures so that the BOE won’t raise again.
    Even if they are independent, the figures that govern them aren’t.
    Odd that this comes hot on the heels of massive market turmoil, no?

    Does this mean consumer spending (which is presumably relative to real inflation) will appear to have accelerated away next month?
    Seems the government are still trying to incentivise debtors over savers. If you spend today what you will earn tomorrow, in a high inflation environment, you have more spending power (because tomorrow, when you actually get it, it is worth less, so the soner you spend it the better).

    Feeling more and more uncomfortable in this country.

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  • I think it just proves how volitile our economy is, small adjustments = huge affects. This is inevitabley what will cause a HPC.

    Of course the BOE will drop rates now, remember, if the CPI goes over 2.0% – wait and see, below 2.0% DROP IT DROP IT!!!! They dd it two years and caused a massive credit borrowing boom, will they do the same now?

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  • And is it just me, or does anyone else feel as though our economy is being managed like some fool with 15 credit cards to his name each month ?

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    I think the strong pound has been the key here. We import everything pretty much and it’s made imported goods much cheaper. If Sterling falls to more normal levels expect to see inflation rising again soon – coupled with the rising prices of Chinese goods this figure has to be temporary.

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  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    Paul, I fear above target = no action, below target = no action.
    George, definitely, I really really don’t like the way things are going. I am starting to think that “heading for a facist state” should be in the past tense. This place feels like a tin-pot dictatorship with the people living in fear and the boss-man robbing the country blind. Even in dictatorships many support the leader for his stabilising influence.

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  • Can’t think why they may have needed to magic up some ‘good news’ (LOL) and, shock of shocks, its the good old inflation statistics that wade in to save the day again.

    I don’t know about everyone else, but I’ve given up the economy as a total and complete fraud. There is no such thing as free markets, just a complex mechanism to maintain and extend the life of the existing ‘Order’ way beyond its use by date.

    We are now all living in the land of make believe.

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  • Let’s face it western democracy has had it’s day, once a government secures the reins of power they ignore, lie,bully and generally shaft the electorate for their own ends, what I find worrying is that young people are so passive and just take it, are they putting something in their Vodka Ice at uni.

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  • planning4acrash says:

    They certainly convince David, and I do think that he represents what most people outside of this site are thinking.

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  • What effect has the weather had on this, how many people have been out shopping this summer. There are highstreet savings everywhere.

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  • stillthinking says:

    Forget cheapo bread and beans, due to demand from Russia and Asia (and the small size of the Champagne region) we are close to “Peak champagne”. This inflation will certainly worry our socialist masters. I always drink cava myself because I am pleb. Sourced from some rag at the weekend.

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    Did anyone see that pile of shite cooking program by the Indian woman last night? I know we are reaching new levels of decadence in swanky metrpolitan (delete an ‘s’ if you like!) London but when she introduced a rather sorry man as being a ‘mixologist’ it had me dialling for the ‘Migrate to New Zealand’ website. For all those ‘normal’ people, a mixologist is apparently someone who makes cocktails – a barman in any other World!

    The program was so unbearably ‘Islington’ my TV was on the verge of sailing through the window. How did we get to these crushing levels of w**ky b*llsh*t?!?

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    Wildly off-topic but heh, I feel loads better now!!!

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  • I thought Mervyn predicted a sharp slowdown in inflation a few months ago….

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    He did because he adjusts the weighting on the basket of goods!!! Brilliant!

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  • george monsoon says:

    Does he take into account the two for one offers, when tallying the cost of a basket?

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  • Yes Maddison.

    I predict that my car is going to get washed in an hours time.

    Hey presto!

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  • waitingfor hpc says:

    People….

    It is time to leave. I am now feeling it is time to leave the UK. I have had enough of this financial miracle economy and it’s results. I am thinking long and hard about taking my money to a country where I can buy a house outright, like France or even the US.

    I have had enough. As long as you lie and cheat the UK can live on this cloud for years to come. I feel very sad today, it has now dawned on me how corrupt the UK has become.

    But people want to believe it, and they will. IR’s will drop now… I feel sure of that. The choice has been made, and I think it was long ago, to ignore inflation.

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  • George Monsoon In A Teacup says:

    waitingfor hpc,
    the reason you can “buy a house outright in France or even the US”, is due to the strength of the economy you are so quick to critisise.

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  • This fraud will get exposed for what it is, the BoE are s**ting themselves that their isn’t another Soros moment in the wings… I just fear what ‘not so GB’ will be like in 10 to 20 years, it will be broke by the total mismanagement of the government and BoE, who’s going to pay back PPI loans, whose going to look after the non existent gold reserves… what a bunch of p**s pots.

    BoE and Gordo all your BS doesn’t detract from the fact that I earn a good wage and still don’t have a pot to p**s in after the monthly bills.

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  • This fraud will get exposed for what it is, the BoE are s**ting themselves that their isn’t another Soros moment in the wings… I just fear what ‘not so GB’ will be like in 10 to 20 years, it will be broke by the total mismanagement of the government and BoE, who’s going to pay back PPI loans, whose going to look after the non existent gold reserves… what a bunch of p**s pots.

    BoE and Gordo all your BS doesn’t detract from the fact that I earn a good wage and still don’t have a pot to p**s in after the monthly bills.

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  • george monsoon says:

    I am extremely flattered that someone admires my name enough to copy it, but I hold no affiliation to Mr Teacup.

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  • george monsoon says:

    by the way teacup.. the economy may seem strong now, but its propped up on stilts and we will have a much harder time in the years ahead, because of this false wealth.

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  • If the pound slides the uk will be in “Serious” Poo

    Remind me again what oil is traded and paid for in, oh that right DOLLARS !!!

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  • Cover up. Can they honestly beleive that we are going to fall for a 0.6 fall in inflation is due to a supermarket price war!!! Core inflation which excludes food prices also fell 0.3 last month. One thing is for sure there is NO way they can drop IR. Sterling will fall through the floor. I do not believe we have anything like a stropng £ at the moment. It is only when it is tied to the $ that it looks strong and the greenback is in free fall. The £ has for some time now remained almost exactly in line with the Euro. I can think of no rational economic explanation for these figures. Forget the CPI liar index, but a fall in RPI which includes mortgage repayments??

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  • Ck One, I am in complete agreement, now I earn over £36k in Devon which is way above the average down here, and I cannot get a 2 bed flat………..apparently lots of jobs for engineers like me in New Zealand hmmmmm……

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  • M’eh. The calculations behind the CPI figure are published. Perhaps one of the conspiracy theorists could go and check to see how the figure has been ‘cooked’ before slinging terms like ‘fascist state’ about. Whether or not the CPI is an appropriate measure of inflation to base IR policy on is a different question…

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  • tyrellcorporation says:

    I would imagine the BoE are actually quite embarrased by this figure. A 0.6% drop is pretty amazing and it has confounded nearly all the economists who comment on IRs. My guess is that the fiddled a little too much with the weighting for utility bills when they climbed to their peak and we’re on the cusp of falling. If the figure was 2.2% rather than 1.9% it would have been slightly more credible.

    Moving forward I now see stagnation on IRs possibly for the rest of 2007 – shame!

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  • Seenitallbefore says:

    In response to 20. tyrellcorporation said..

    Couldn’t agree more the pretentiousness of these complete and utter Swankers is unbearable. The Indian woman although quite attractive is just trying to be another Nigella domestic goddess type.
    The big difference is, and here’s the nub of it, is that Nigella has better tits. Opps sorry tips.

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  • george monsoon says:

    Symo – what do you do for 36+ a year?

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  • Back ON topic, I agree with Tyrellcorp, I would think they will be cringeing at these numbers… After all, they are supposed to be an indicator of the actual cost of living for the general population, but in reality everyone in the country will attest that their personal inflation rate is much higher than the ‘official’ figures. The numbers are so skewed by so many different factors, they are embarassingly innacurate. Also interesting to note factory input inflation in the States is way up again, watch the stock markets, it’s funny they can’t figure out which way to go… All the investors are watching each other to see which one blinks first…. I haven’t seen any nonsense from ‘you know who’ today, I am guessing mummy is back at work and he is back in the nursery….

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  • Why does everyone want to go to New Zealand? It has one of the highest IRs in the world. The currency is massively over valued as is the property market. The central bank intervention in buying dollars to prevent the dollar’s appreciation completely failed and demonstrated that the whole economy is at the mercy of the carry trade.

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  • david20040_0 says:

    So when will rates start dropping then?

    5.5 by Xmas?

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  • you know who?

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  • I personally believe that no matter what happens with IR’s, inflation stock markets etc, that we’ve passed the point of no return (on the path to hpc). We all know that the biggest driver in ALL markets is confidence and the psycology of everyone. By this i mean the fear/greed issue. Lets say for example, the banks lower interest rates again, wouldn’t this then lead to more people jumping to get a mortgage, leading to higher demand, leading to higher prices, leading to more people thinking their wealthy by using their house value as their net worth, leading to more borrowing to buy luxuries and day to day items, leading to inflation leading to interest rate hikes.

    I feel that the greed of people trying to make money on their property by adding no value to anyones life other than their own, is causing fear in those who don’t have a house, and fear they never will….unless they get on board now. Which leads to more greed on the existing property owners….and so on…and so on…..

    Ok, so thats a overly simplistic way of putting it (and many details missing), but surely this can show how greed can drive the market above any statistic.

    What will happen when a large portion of the populations psycology turns to fear?…including the ones who caused all this due to theeir greed????

    I think this wheel of fear’/greed has picked up to much pace on route to the crash for anyone, anything or any statistical figure to stop it!!!!

    But thats just an opinion of course……

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  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    Amazing strength of feeling. Who said Britts are apathetic?
    If there weren’t so much CCTV around we would probably be on the streets protesting (though not within a kilometre of the houses of parliament, because democratic rights don’t count within that radius.

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  • The comments about Bloomberg are absurd and rabid.

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  • Some of the comments on this Web site about the media are absurd. They are so absurd that they harm HPC.co.uk. To infer that Bloomberg has “political interests,” and involved in a conspiracy is embarrassing

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  • Babybongo – read some Noam Chomsky

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  • Orwell – grow up or go and check the figures. Or both.

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