Thursday, July 12, 2007

UK house prices are signalling a possible crash?

UK House price growth is slowing

The never ending debate makes for good reading. This article sheds some firm evidence that a house price crash is on the card. I think we all expect it at some stage but we didn't expect it quite so soon.

Posted by landlord expert @ 03:05 PM (512 views)
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21 thoughts on “UK house prices are signalling a possible crash?

  • george monsoon says:

    Admin – I think its getting time to book the party.. I will bring Crisps and Trifle..

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  • And I will bring some jelly.

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  • planning4acrash says:

    I’ll have a look for some vacated buildings, done up a few months ago for BTL, for a house price crash squat party!! It can be all weekend, then we can move in, on rotation look after the place, as a house price crash collective, claim squatters rights and sell it for a million in ten yrs time at the top of the next house price peak! Anybody in? It will be a party every weekend!! (I think some people are still doing this from the fallout of the last two crashes!!!!) LOL

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  • Get a place with a garden, then we can have a bonfire night celebration with Gordon Brown effigy! Oh yes, we could also make some estate agents to burn….I think a lot of people will be in the ‘mood’ by Nov 5 2007.

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  • I’m in!

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  • I think house prices will never come down again!!! Ever, get on now and load up for your kids too.

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  • Don’t bank on it. Please define crash. 10% 20% 30% or what? I am expecting a 10-15% correction in the next year but no more

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  • In fact the article tiptoes around the subject of where prices are heading and only talks about recent gains.

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  • The Capitalist says:

    My EA mate in busy commuter town of Maidenhead hasn’t sold a home in 19 days – he saw the last crash and is certain we headed the same way now. Quote “someone has turned off the lights”

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  • we’re not going to wake up one morning to a HPC. Like maddison said, maybe 10-15% this year or next, then a mixture a stagnating and slow deflating real prices for 2-10 years. As much as I’d love to see price plummet in a short space of time I can’t see it happening.

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  • talking rot says:

    It is not possible to define what a crash is until there is consensus over the time period for a crash. For example, a 10% decline over 4 years is not as dramatic as a 10% decline within 1 year.

    My gut feeling is a decline from peak of about 33% over 4 to 5 years. But I wouldn’t say that is a crash.

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  • I’ve said for a long time, this site should be called “house price correction”.

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  • “House price buffers”?

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  • Well the reality could be more mundane than a crash – but then again these things do happen!

    I think the problem is that – If HPI were a parabolic curve (like a jet firing all thrusters when pointing up) – what angle of ascent is it – so what does the parabola look like?

    The jet in my opinion has fired it’s last burst of thrust, has run out of fuel and is now using kinetic energy just to get itself a little higher – but if the ascent is steep – my guess it will nosedrive before the pilot gets the chance to re-align the plane – and there will be little or no juice left to counteract the effect of gravity – I doubt it will glide to a soft landing.

    Strange analogy – but hey – am one that likes the left-field angle.

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  • Soon the “c” word will be illegal. Journalists will be sacked over it.

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  • Bearorbullenigma says:

    Isn’t this off a landlord site?

    What they say THEY’VE known that a crash has been on the cards but not so soon?

    Since when did they ‘know’ there was going to be a crash?

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  • Oh don’t get me wrong – I still think the market will crash in a blaze of glory with estate agents and the CML and RICS talking in tongues when things get bad.

    I think this because there REALLY IS NO SUCH THING AS A SOFT LANDING.

    I can say it a million times but there will still be some mungs who think it will happen.

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  • Maddison,

    Even a ten percent fall – over ANY period – will equate to a crash for many. They bought for the capital appreciation. They have mortgages and are therefore highly leveraged. A 10% fall represents the loss of ALL of their deposit. If they lose all of their money, I’d imagine they’d consider it a crash. Nuff said

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  • george monsoon says:

    I have calculated that I will be able to buy a house if prices fall by 25%
    I need this fall just to get a foothold on the ladder, and I have allowed for interest rate rises to 9% and I should with a little help from Heinz and Aldi, be able to make it happen.

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  • Man With Hair says:

    I think a crash is a term used to describe a shock dip in values……I think there is a strong possibility that could happen within the next 12-18 months. I don’t know why some of you are happy this is going to happen – you must be American! It’s the only explaination I can think of as to why you would be so anti-UK House prices. Either that or you are first time buyers waiting for house prices to drop in which case you don’t matter!!! Get yourselves a better job or a better education or both ;-P

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  • To the ‘man with hair’.
    I am a first time buyer hoping that the prices will come down a bit so I can afford to buy a house with something resembling a liveable quality of life at the same time. In response to your comment that people like me “do not matter, get yourselves a better job or a better education or both”-how dare you. I have a good education and a professional job. Lots of people I know in their late 20s are working bloody hard and are scraping together every penny to try & get somewhere. We are just victims of circumstance being screwed over by the buy to let boom. If the market comes tumbling I will feel for my friends who have stretched themselves, but for those with a ‘property portfolio’, you deserve everything you get.

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