Sunday, July 22, 2007

Snippets of FTB news from last week

First time buyers - the week in focus - Firstrung

First time buyer news was less frantic than in recent weeks, however, we've managed to select all the relevant news concerning first time buyers; FTB numbers have increased slightly according to the NAEA, FTBs are using more of their disposable income on mortgage payments than at any time since 1992, the NHBC backs the government's home building programme, the CPRE pours cold water on it and according to Alliance & Leicester the 100% FTB mortgage market is primed for growth....

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:54 AM (583 views)
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4 thoughts on “Snippets of FTB news from last week

  • Not that we need extra homes, but if more are built it will devalue the existing ones, provided they are good enough to live in.
    The upcoming crash will be caused by a collection of factors (more homes/k winter economics/ investors and immigrants going home or somewhere else) and will be the subject fo debate for many years.
    And when it hits, the Labour party will have as much chance of winning seats as a bunch of deaf kids in a game of musical chairs.

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  • david20040_0 says:

    Scott we do need extra homes because we haven’t got enough right now. Your argument is flawed.

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  • David, technically we may (on paper) need extra homes but if you believe, as many on here do, that economically we are moving into a less rosy period than the past 10 years or so l think you’ll find the factors impacting on the need for housing are going to change quite radically. As the next phase of the economic cycle is played out (the bust following this (cheap credit) prolonged boom) it’s likely that purses across the country will tighten – how many will still be able to afford those second homes?, economic migration may well reverse as the economic migrants take their labour elsewhere, BTL – arguably a phenomenon based on cheap credit – will probably become a less attractive option as yields fall further and bureacracy/taxation increase.

    Some believe there is nothing in our future other than more boom, more cheap credit, more HPI. Personally I feel that is unlikely………….

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  • No, David – you argument is flawed because we have plenty of homes. Again, look at what ABN Amro calls “fundamentals”. The real indicator of supply and demand is rents because assuming everyone has to live somewhere, any increase in nominal demand will be reflected in rises in rents.

    Rents have barely kept up with inflation in recent years indicating that there is no excess demand, and that the rise in prices is purely down to speculation and cheap credit. If it were not, interest rate rises would not affect the housing market at all.

    Do you get it now?

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