Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Hmmm – how can we fudge the figures this month

UK June inflation slows to 2.4%

The UK's consumer price inflation fell to 2.4% last month, down from 2.5% in May, the Office for 'Notional' Statistics said. However, the decline was smaller than many analysts had forecast, prompting concerns that interest rates would have to climb later this year. The Retail Prices Index, an inflation measure often used in pay bargaining, rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in May.

Posted by uncle chris @ 09:54 AM (586 views)
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15 thoughts on “Hmmm – how can we fudge the figures this month

  • planning4acrash says:

    This is interesting, I doubt the figures are fudged, what this shows is that inflation is significantly above where the BOE wanted it, is inflation reduction slowing? Or is the tanker turning around, heading north in response to higher petrol and food prices, etc? Next month could well see a rise in inflation if petrol at the pumps surges above £1. We are also very sensitive to any fall in the £ because Sterling is pushing its luck at the moment. To collapse, we only need evidence of inflation in America, and they are suffering high oil prices more than us because they consume twice as much for each unit of GDP than us Europeans. I would say that this guarantees 6% interest rates. A further slowing, or turnaround will push us much further. In a more volatile environment, the BOE shouldn’t be aiming to settle at 2%, they need to go below 2% inflation to counteract yrs being above and to factor in the risk of an upturn.

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  • Core inflation is up and RPI inflation is up too.

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  • Last month inflation was at 2.5%, this month it is at 2.4%. They are saying that although inflation is there, the rate is slowing down. However, the slowing is less than forecast (i.e. inflation is higher) so this will firm up the resolve of the BOE to direct to the upside.

    I do not know when the data points are so have no idea how much, if any, of the recent oil rally is captured in this data.

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  • This was commented upon on AOL news. The last line was “Inflation is set to see some downward pressures, with food prices due to decrease and clothing and footwear also in line for price falls in the coming months.”

    What planet are these people on? How do they expect food prices to lower? Plus I thought petrol and heating prices always lower in summer when less demand and then rise in winter when they really make a killing?

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  • Petrol prices can and do go up in the summer, a big factor is ‘driving’ season in the states where families go on holiday via car.

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  • Petrol prices can and do go up in the summer, a big factor is ‘driving’ season in the states where families go on holiday via car.

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  • CPI Month on month deviations always slow in June (Avg since 1989 = +0.1%), fall in July (Avg since 1989 = -0.3%), before picking up again in Aug (Avg since 1989 = +0.40%).
    Its holiday season and people are saving and exporting there cash now.
    The full CPI data since 1989 = http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/tsdataset.asp?vlnk=7174&More=N&All=Y
    I would like to trend this data against IR to see if spending appetite is being really quenched.

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  • george monsoon says:

    CPI is down

    RPI is up..

    Complete [email protected]@cks IMHO believe nothing except the change in your pocket when you have paid the bills.

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  • The significant thing is that these figures came in higher than the analysts expectations – evidence that factors that are below the radar are pushing inflation forward.

    Surprised? Me? No!

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  • Tick, Tock, Tick, Tock,,,,,,,,,,the debt bomb is ticking.

    Inflation is heading back to long term more realistic levels and this means that interest rates will be at more long term average levels. well how are all the heavily indebted people going to cope with that. IMHO I don’t think that many people will be able to cope. result negative equity, the feel good factor will go (if it hasn’t already) and as a result spending will deminish (as it is already) with dire consequences for the whole economy (not just property prices and construction). can’t help feeling that the economy is heading for big trouble. in fact i feel this time it could be worse that the early nineties.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    Nice work Andy,

    Looks like September averages 0.41.

    It is likely that RPI will be significantly higher by Christmas as the overweight energy rises go through too.

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  • george monsoon says:

    Not forgetting the price of Crude, and the anouncement on the news earlier of impending crop failure and high retail prices for the common spud.

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  • David20040_0 says:

    Surely it CPI is falling then that will mean that the Bank of England will reduce interest rates allowing the housing boom to go off again?

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  • It will probably be as bad as the 1974 recession. And by the way…IR’s will be 7.5% this time next year, a taxi driver told me in London the other day and they carry all sorts of people around including those at the heart of the establishment..

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  • Been growing veggies in my garden this year and have checked me spuds tonight and half of them are rotten and that is in a well drained garden! The carrots are suffering as well and I imagine my onions may go the same way soon. I imagine that hay crops will be suffering as well now due to the frequent heavy showers and may well rot in the fields due to lack of dry weather for harvesting so all the horsey types will also see the effects through the winter with cereal crops going the same way in the next 8 weeks or so if their is not a decent dry spell. There will be major commodity driven inflational pressure on the UK from September onwards that not even a sugared-up pound can fend off.

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