Monday, July 23, 2007

Deloitte Economic Forecast Q3 2007

Deloitte Econmic Forecast Q3 2007

John Connolly, Chief Exec and Senior Partner of Deloitte giving his economic predictions for the housing market and general UK economy predictions. Very interesting reading!!!

Posted by the landlord assocation @ 09:38 AM (731 views)
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16 thoughts on “Deloitte Economic Forecast Q3 2007

  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    Shh.. everyody, let’s pretend we didn’t hear him.

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  • the landlord assocation says:

    GROW UP!

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  • converted lurker says:

    strange thing is neg. p.r. always sticks, does anyone click through to LA’s articles given you now look at them and know you’ll find the true source elsewhere? I’m dismissing them as an irrelevant clutter, a nuisance, have advised site moderators of the same, personally believe he should have been banned for using foul and insulting language aimed towards long standing members.

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  • uncle chris says:

    LA, if you want to encourage debate through opposing views, that’s fine …. but please start quoting the source of the original articles, and don’t just plug the cut-n-paste content on your website.

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  • david20040_0 says:

    Landlord Association aka Dean (or whoever you are)

    I have one simple question, if your supposed business is so successful why do you seem to spend so much time posting articles on here?

    Also why would you want to? You seem to think the housing market will continue to boom. Whilst most people who blog here want to see house prices go down to about 40-50K.

    You arguing against people, who in general are dead against your viewpoint.

    So why waste your time posting here. Why don’t you just concentrate on your business?

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  • Disillusioned says:

    I love chart 3 on page 15: US house prices. House prices drop and then, suddenly, as a future prediction, he’s just drawn a big upward line! HA!

    …and page 20;

    “It also takes time for higher interest rates to affect the housing market, with consumer spending unlikely to receive the support of high house price inflation for much longer. Housing market activity has already started to slow, with falls in the number of mortgage approvals for new house purchases. And the ration of sales to the stock of unsold housing has started to fall back, suggesting that house price inflation is CLOSE TO PEAKING. We expect house price inflation to slow from its current 10% to 3% next year.”

    Thanks LA, that’s actually nice and bearish! 3% is below RPI.

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  • Dean,
    Better still, go and find a blog that reflects you own views more accurately – that way you will not get so frustrated that you have to SHOUT at us.

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  • Landlord (or Dean or whoever),

    Is this the same one of the big four, one of whom lied about the Enron Bubble (also built on air)?

    This was obviously Arthur Anderson. How many other ‘misinformed’ accountants are there?

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  • nopensionnohouse says:

    “GROW UP!”

    Sorry sweetheart. We didn’t mean to offend.

    Snigger.

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  • Landlord,

    Thanks for the informative link.

    However, may I suggest that Deloitte have a vested in terest in this? Perhaps this comment from Radio 4 Web Site is better?:

    Increasingly, there are many signs of desperation in the buy to let (BLT) property industry. Every day in the media there are adverts offering some kind of inducements for potential investors. These include payment of legal fees, guaranteed rental yield of 7% or 8% for the first couple of years, while others are offering even to pay your deposit. The trouble is such offers seem to be too good to be true, and they are. Despite the optimistic sales talk in those television property programmes, the good times of making easy money from BLT investments has ended.

    Today’s investors are unlikely to achieve the capital gains increases and rental yields achieved in the boom years of 1996-2004.
    to read more http://www.oxfordprospect.co.uk/buytolet.htm.

    This incidentally was in November 2006, prior to IR rises to 5.75% (and ofcourtse set to go much higher.

    Or try this?: http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_6200000/newsid_6208300/6208374.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&nol_storyid=6208374&news=1

    This is very interesting. I hope that you have a spare change of underwear when the Insolvency Service come knocking…

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  • also sold to rent says:

    Personally I find it interesting to see some bullish posts rather than just doom-and-gloom-its-the-end-of-the-world type of thing we often get here. It never hurts to know how the other side think. And I cannot believe how riled you lot get! I don’t think LA’s existence is enough to keep the market afloat, so who cares what he posts?!?

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  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    @also sold to rent, I’d be very happy to know how the other side think, but both crazy bulls we’ve had on here (Glorious “I earn considerably more than you and post song lyrics” Sunshine, followed by Landlord “boo-yah, grow up me” Association) have contribued little of any value beyond “house prices can only go up because I say so”.

    True bulls on here, such as David 2004 generally cite that, whilst they would like to see prices go down, existence proof says that they keep going up. At least he is right based on what has happened to date, but I think most feel that a bubble turns on a sixpence and past performance is no prediction of.. etc.

    If there are bulls out there prepared to post interesting anecdotes, market observations and genuine reasons why they think things can only get better, I for one would like to hear it. I would also love to hear more vuiews from insiders such as estate agents, lenders and RICS.

    Since I have been reading and postinc, I have only seen 3 real bull arguments, each of which seems to be false:

    – Insufficient supply – no, it’s stimulated demand, caused by low IR.
    – It’s just the way it is – no, if that were so, why haven’t rents risen in line with HPI.
    – When IRs go up, landlords can pass on the increase – no, with negative earnings growth, tenants cannot pay and will have to move.

    So the only question is “are we in a bubble”? If so, why and if not, why not? If so, the timing is always unpredictable and the outcome always sudden, if not, we will be here arguing the evidence for a long time to come 😉

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  • Dean,

    I have discovered who your mentor is:- “They [the Americans] are going to surrender or be burned in their tanks. They will surrender, it is they who will surrender.” – Comical Ali, former Iraqi Information Minister.

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  • dhcw,

    IMHO, there are 2 fundamental truths about markets that predict a crash:
    1) Markets always overshoot (in both directions). We have had benign-to-positive economic conditions for prolonged period. Markets always over-egg the pudding in such circumstances – it is just their nature.
    2) Long-term averages always prevail over long horizons, but market participants always over-emphasise recent history. This is the “This time it’s different!” argument that keeps on popping up and being proved wrong in market after market.

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  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    Agreed royston, so presumably the tactic is to wait patiently until property overshoots the average on the way down (say, less than 3xsalary) and quietly buy when everyone advises against it?

    I really don’t believe many here believe it’s different this time. Do we have the patience to wait it out though?

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  • My vision of the future is distressed banks and building societies selling off huge stockpiles of bankrupt property developers’ unsold houses and apartments, at fire sale prices. The banks will compete with each other to shift the properties before prices slide even further, in a ‘race to the bottom’. I don’t see holding the properties in anticipation of a recovery as a viable option because banks will need cash, as they will be forced to buy back rotten CDOs that they mis-sold to investors.

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