Tuesday, May 29, 2007

US Market Continues to Deflate

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Fell 1.4% in March, Index Shows

Nationally, home prices fell 1.4 percent in the first quarter from the same period last year, the fist decline since 1991.

Posted by james @ 02:36 PM (556 views)
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3 thoughts on “US Market Continues to Deflate

  • My model of the inverted sine curve – a decline that slowly gathers pace until it goes into freefall – seems to be emerging in the US, but whether it will follow through into a full crash is less certain.

    I’m struggling to find good data on the scale and nature of BTL speculation in the USA, and I suspect it may not have been as extreme or as reckless there as it has been in the UK, If that is the case, they are more likely to see a property slump rather than a crash.

    What they are going to see now is the delayed effect of the downturn – the drying up of equity withdrawal (refinancing in the US) with a consequent slow down in consumer spending.

    Greenspan’s warnings about the possibility of recession are well judged..

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  • Do what the VIs would do if th eboot were on the other foot – annualise it.

    Don’t say home prices fell 1.4% in the first quarter, say they fell 5.6% annualised.

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  • Then add in inflation

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