Thursday, May 24, 2007

Danger Danger

Oil price at $71 nine-month high

So, Mervyn expected in his calculations that oil would settle to around $40/barrel, well, I'm not an economist, and even i thought that was barmy, news is coming in thick and thin now about how commodity prices will shape economic prices for a good while yet. Maybe the bank should hope for the best but plan for the worst. It seems that they have planned for the best and hoped that the worst wouldn't happen.

Posted by pr @ 08:38 PM (2903 views)
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4 thoughts on “Danger Danger

  • Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

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  • royston – if I am right in my logic – oil hit a high in Jul/Aug last year – so it has taken till now to be felt in the economy. If that is the case – this spike (plateau) will have an even more serious impact than the last.

    You’re right – the BoE have planned for the best and hoped that the worst wouldn’t happen.

    From April 07 “Mr King said that inflation had exceeded 3% in March because since February oil prices had risen by about 25%, reversing part of the fall in prices seen in the second half of last year. The oil price rise pushed up petrol prices.” FYI Oil went from $55 to $68.

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  • talking rot says:

    Please correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t that NOSHBAG DAVID SMITH of The Times predict inflation was bound to fall because OIL was destined to FALL.

    Oh dear. Looks like his economic forecast, that life in Gordon’s World is always rosy, isn’t going to be right afterall.

    If only the MPC had the ability to raise interest rates. Still on for a 5.75% max by the end of the year.

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  • Yes, I reckon that 5.75 to 6% is about right TRS, the question now is whether that will be appropriate. If it is, then we have a more prolonged soft landing than we would have had if interest rates had been slightly higher for the past couple of years, if not, then interest rates will over shoot, maybe this time next year, if houses, oil, commodities and food continue their rise. Its a painfully long wait and see game. Anybody got the answers?!

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