April 2007 Archive

Monday, April 30, 2007

Cheerleader-in-chief for the American housing bubble is quiting

CNN Money: Bullish real estate economist to step down

"David Lereah, criticized for excessive market optimism, to leave National Association of Realtors." That Lereah is quiting really has to say something about the former bull market for real estate in the US.

Posted by richc @ 11:04 PM 6 Comments

Damage control Starting....

The Market Oracle: US Housing Bubble Meltdown: "Is it too late to get out"?

Great article detailing the panic now being experienced by the financial lenders in the US over subprime debacle. "Citigroup and Bank of America" forming a $1bn dollar fund to help bail out lenders?! How scared must they be? Alt-A is aparently a $1 trillion dollar time-bomb too! How they will keep this illusion up will be interesting..

Posted by layers @ 10:08 PM 4 Comments

Another undesireable effect of HPI

BBC News: UK workers 'face meagre old age'

Big mortgage multiples and money purchase pension unfortunately equals Old Age Poverty.

Posted by enuii @ 09:27 PM 3 Comments

The Middle-Classes Are Revolting [Part 2]!

Telegraph: Rip-off Britain back with a vengeance

Figures from Eurostat, Europe's statistics agency, show Britain is one of the most expensive countries in the EU for alcohol and tobacco, transport, education and household goods.

Posted by nearly30 @ 08:44 PM 9 Comments

Good Summative Article

The Thrifty Scot: The wealth gap is widening

There are those who are warning the government that Londons economy attracted the wealthy in the first place. To let the average worker suffer, working harder to gain less, is a sure way to destroy the vibrant, and self sustaining economy that attracted the wealthy in the first place.

Posted by nearly30 @ 08:39 PM 0 Comments

What will this do to the housing market?

CityWire: Increasing life expectancy impacts on housing market

Good news for mortgage intermediaries Alliance & Leicester is predicting that increasing life expectancy will result in more families moving house more often to cope with adult children remaining at home as well as dependent elderly relatives.

Posted by nearly30 @ 08:35 PM 6 Comments

The mother or all the reports...

HousePriceCrash: ABN Amro Report

I am being not too original here, and post a link from the HPC site. ABN is making absolutely clear that UK housing market will crash with a much greater bang than the US. I suggest you read ABN's full-length House Truths report, if you havent yet. Maybe Webmasted can post it on this site.

Posted by confused76 @ 07:20 PM 7 Comments

Read Day traders as BTLers

The Onion: 'Day traders'short term, high risk investors

'Day traders'short term, high risk investors who buy and sell stock online from their own homesaccount for a large, rapidly rising percentage of total stock-market activity. Why are so many Americans getting involved in day trading?

Posted by sam @ 05:44 PM 0 Comments

Calling the top of UK commercial property?

FT.com: HSBC sells London HQ for 1bn

"Spanish property company Metrovacesa is paying 1.09bn for the London headquarters of global bank HSBC in the biggest ever single-property deal in the UK. The skyscraper at 8 Canada Square in Canary Wharf, where 8,000 people work, is 210m high with 1.1m sq ft of space. On a yield of 3.8 per cent thought to be the highest price paid for a big UK office block the building reflects how commercial property prices have gone through the roof in recent years. " HSBC selling up? How badly do they need cash to cover bad-debt losses? Or, with Swiss Re having recently sold the Gherkin, are HSBC also calling the top of the market?

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 01:48 PM 1 Comments

Many more interest rate rises to come!

BBC News: Interest rates 'must hit 5.75%'

The Bank of England should raise interest rates to 5.75% by June in order to guard against wage-driven inflation, a think tank has warned. While rates are expected to go up from 5.25% to 5.5% next month, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research says a bigger rise is needed. It points to the fact that the UK's retail price inflation (RPI) rate is currently at a 16-year high of 4.8%. RPI is the basis for many annual pay deals agreed at this time of the year.

Posted by king of fools @ 01:32 PM 0 Comments

Housing supply overtakes demand

Telegraph: Housing supply overtakes demand

Supply has overtaken demand in the housing market for the first time in a year. A glut of new properties has come to the market this month, pushing the number of new listings up 5.7pc nationwide, according to the latest housing survey from Hometrack. The number of buyers coming to the market rose by 4.4pc in the same period.

Posted by mc @ 01:08 PM 5 Comments

What rubbish!

Times: Should letter-writing be thing of the past?

This is a vile attack of The Times (what a weapon of mass distraction!) to the only tiny tiny element of accountability of an otherwise usless body like the MPC. please flood The Times and the author with comments!

Posted by confused76 @ 12:58 PM 6 Comments

The BoE should have acted sooner

Home.co.uk News: NIESR slams BoE negligence

The cut in rates in 2005 was a blunder and subsequent prevarication over IR hikes has only made the problem of soaring HPI worse.

Posted by tinecu @ 12:46 PM 0 Comments

Future generations worse off? Really?

Guardian: Future generations 'will pay for high house prices'

This study may be correct, unless... it s a bubble, in which case price revert to the mean and future generations are fine (and older generations are scr**ed!!) What i find amazing is that these think tanks translate a relative recent observation (prices have gone up for only 6 years!!) into a universal rule for eternity. Interest rates will increase, more houses will be built, unemployment will go up and house prices will come down... this is the most likely outcome. Relax, HPI is just bonfire, not a multi-generation problem.

Posted by confused76 @ 11:59 AM 2 Comments

For Dublin read London over the next 18 months

Firstrung: Dublin house prices fall by over 10% in a year - Daft.ie

The upper-end of the Dublin property market has been hardest hit with some areas showing significant drops in asking prices over the last six months. In North Dublin, Howth and Malahide have seen drops of over 10%. In South Dublin, meanwhile, asking prices in Rathmines, Rathgar and Ranelagh are down 12.6%. Asking prices in the predominantly first-time-buyers areas of Lucan and Adamstown took a softer hit, down 4.2% over the same period.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:58 AM 8 Comments

Has mortgage demand peaked?

Firstrung: Higher interest rates are influencing mortgage borrowing - BBA

March figures for high street banks show that mortgage demand may be weakening in the face of rising interest rates. Marchs gross mortgage lending was 18.6bn, 5% more than 17.7bn in March 2006. There were 198,000 mortgages approved (for all purposes) in March; some 8% lower than in March 2006, with an aggregate value of 22.3bn. The average loan approved for house purchase was 150,800, some 12% higher than a year earlier.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:32 AM 0 Comments

Buy to let propaganda - poor deluded fools

Inside Track: Newsletter

This guy will be in exile in a few years sipping pina coladas - to escape the mob of bankrupt landlords.

Posted by the capitalist @ 11:07 AM 0 Comments

Leading indicator of future housing marketing slowing

interactive investor: Signs of slowing in UK mortgage demand emerging - BBA

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Signs that the UK housing market may be starting to slow emerged today as a leading industry group reported that UK mortgage approvals slowed from a year earlier while lending remained below its average over the past six months. In its in-depth analysis of the mortgage market in March, the British Bankers' Association said the number of mortgage approvals for house purchase slowed to 75,098 from 85,098 a year earlier. The value of loans approved also slowed on an annual basis, to 11.3 bln stg from 11.4 bln stg. Though the figures were up sharply from 54,659 and 8.2 bln stg in February, this reflects seasonal factors as the housing market usually picks up in March from February and January, said David Dooks, director of statistics at the BBA.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 10:29 AM 0 Comments

Relax - Everything is under control

Times: One rise in interest rates should be enough, say economists

Only one further increase in interest rates should be enough for the Bank of England to bring inflation back to its 2 per cent target, despite mounting fears that it could take more aggressive action, Britains leading economics institute says today.

Posted by holding out @ 09:15 AM 8 Comments

Aha!

BBC News: Dirty money exploits housing boom

I know that the British house buying public could not be so stupid as to chase up the prices of property and not realise what was happening. Criminal gangs have been contributing to excess housing demand in order to launder the proceeds of their crimes.

Posted by royston @ 07:36 AM 9 Comments

Would a different pricing model for housing make a difference?

Businessweek: Pricing software could reshape retail

This article is worth reading because it calls into question some long held beliefs about price elasticity. What if you could make more houses be bought and sold WITHOUT having to inflate the money supply. After all retailers have to learn how to shift merchandise, why not estate agents? It is clear that the problem lies in a very far from Free Market applied to housing. Complete transparency a la Walmart could be a solution to overpricing (after we restore monetary equilibrium and educate people)?

Posted by lvmreader @ 03:38 AM 2 Comments

Why investors are clamoring to take over America's highways, bridges, and airportsand why the public should be nervous

Businessweek: Roads To Riches

A good article on the flight to the inflation protected relational mode of investing represented by infrastructure. Such a move signals what the "apex" money thinks is the future for currency. Moving into assets which are not adversly affected by things such as a currency crash, is the mark of belief that the end is near for certain currencies. No matter how hyper-inflated things get, you'll still need to eat food, use roads, airlines, bridges and energy and water utilities. The food you use is shipped, trucked or flown. The communications system relies on airplanes and electricity. Even if the returns aren't stellar (compared to wht people got used to), at least your investment would live through turbulent times. Ironically, land used to be a great hedge!

Posted by lvmreader @ 03:34 AM 0 Comments

Who needs "Central Bankers" anyway

MoneyWeek: Have Central Bankers lost control?

.....However, a quick glance at the real world indicates continued boundless prosperity. Credit is being created in multiple forms and in unprecedented amounts all around the world. Could it be, the article asks, that the linkages between global economies have altered so fundamentally over the past decade that the shape of an individual countrys bond yield curve is no longer of any real relevance and that the traditional work of the central banker to regulate activity levels is doomed to failure?

Posted by lvmreader @ 02:38 AM 0 Comments

If the retail banks are bleeding now, the next act will be deadly.

Independent: RBS customers furious over 'old address' fee

Royal Bank of Scotland faces mounting criticism from furious borrowers after announcing a 12 penalty charge for customers who fail to notify it of a change of address. RBS said it would levy the charge after two statements had been sent to the customer's old address - in practice after two months. The bank denied suggestions of profiteering, and pointed out that it incurs costs in tracing customers with whom it has lost touch. "It is in the interest of customers to ensure the contacts details we hold for them are correct," a spokesman said. "We give clear instruction on each monthly statement on how to contact us to update these details."

Posted by lvmreader @ 02:35 AM 1 Comments

Very scary rumblings.....

Financial Times: Citigroup chiefs fear push for break-up

We all need to start looking at the ominous warning signs - banks cutting costs drastically to keep their dividend returns high so as to avoid activist hedge funds breaking them up. The obvious connection here will be a "flight to quality". It is a question of who blinks first in yanking loans away from "deadbeats". Back in 2001/2002 Fleming Private Bank and Cater Allen Private Bank were aggressive in removing accounts from anyone with under e.g. 50,000 balance (or some such figure). How long before we see the major retail banks just cutting their losses and running?

Posted by lvmreader @ 02:06 AM 1 Comments

Slowly, finally, the dots are being connected

Independent: Bank caused inflation rise with rate cut in 2005, says think tank

The Bank of England's embarrassingly public failure to keep inflation at 3 per cent or lower can be traced back to its own decision to cut interest rates two and a half years ago, a leading economics think tank claims today. The widely respected National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) says the Bank's decision to cut interest rates in August 2005 was a costly mistake that inevitably led to it missing its inflation targets.

There is no more money!

Posted by lvmreader @ 02:01 AM 2 Comments

BoE "out of control"

Bloomberg: King's Inflation-Targeting Ways at Bank of England Lose Luster

``The Bank of England's inflation focus has been too narrow. It's too late to engineer a soft landing now.''

Posted by confused76 @ 01:34 AM 4 Comments

Sunday, April 29, 2007

Fionnuala OK's Mervyn's plan to raise rate

Nationwide: Pick up in house price growth seals a May rate rise

Dear Mervyn, you are allowed to raise IR, but only once otherwise you destabilize the market. Cheer up, you are independent Mervyn! Yours truly, Fionnuala

Posted by confused76 @ 07:38 PM 6 Comments

Snapshot of the weeks property related news

Firstrung: Propery news in focus - Firstrung

House price reports and signs of a Spanish house price crash dominated the property news wires over the past week. Firstly Nationwide, Hometrack and Smartnewhomes. Nationwide suggested interest rate rises are a done deal - given that house price inflation shows little sign of slowing. Hometrack weighed in with figures suggesting HPI was moderating as affordability is being stretched to new found tensile strengths and smartnewhomes quietly released figures declaring that new homes had fallen in prices by 10K (year on year).

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:15 PM 0 Comments

New homes not sellinf and prices falling

Firstrung: House prices for new homes fall by an average 10K in a year - smartnewhomes.com

New homes prices have fallen for the fourth consecutive month with falling apartment prices and increased development in the north in part responsible for this continued decline... The average price of a new home fell by 0.4% over the last month New home prices fell for the fouth consecutive month in March The average price of a new home fell 3.4% over the last year March experienced the biggest price fall in the new homes market for over a year

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:11 PM 7 Comments

Hometrack research shows HPs are falling

Observer: Cold spots put freeze on house price boom

"Sluggish performance in six areas adds to warning signs that the property market outside London is set to stagnate after years of runaway prices. London's a city-state that drives its own housing market."

Posted by confused76 @ 11:49 AM 2 Comments

Bullish article about Spanish property

The Telegraph: The pain in Spain is mainly on the wane

This is by the Economics Editor of The Sunday Telegraph

The Daily Telegraph normally is much more bearish than this
No mention at all about falling rental rates by 25% - Surely this fact alone will cause fly-to-letters to sell up.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:27 AM 2 Comments

New builds drop in price

Firstrung: House prices for new homes fall by an average 10K in a year - smartnewhomes.com

New homes prices have fallen for the fourth consecutive month with falling apartment prices and increased development in the north in part responsible for this continued decline... *The average price of a new home fell by 0.4% over the last month *New home prices fell for the fouth consecutive month in March *The average price of a new home fell 3.4% over the last year *March experienced the biggest price fall in the new homes market for over a year

Posted by stew @ 10:20 AM 0 Comments

There's a wiff of something in the air....

Times: Super-rich treble wealth in last 10 years

THE WEALTH of the richest 1,000 people in Britain has more than trebled in the decade since Tony Blair came to power promising greater fairness

Posted by nearly30 @ 09:21 AM 6 Comments

The Middle-Classes Are Revolting!

Times: We used to have it all...

Sebastian Cresswell-Turner says he and his professional friends are the nouveau poor a frighteningly downwardly mobile class.

Posted by nearly30 @ 09:18 AM 11 Comments

Saturday, April 28, 2007

LET'S VOTE...

Finda property.com: Will rate rises cause a crash

Come on folks, let's up the ante and vote for this. The answer obviously is yes...

Posted by gozbong @ 11:03 PM 0 Comments

Return of the Super-Mega-Rich!!!

Telegraph: Our widening wealth gap

The ripple effect of bonus payments in London & SE combined with an influx of millionaire/billionaires into tax haven UK, has pushed demand for housing through the ceiling. That most basic component of British life, a home of one's own, is beginning to resemble a luxury.

Posted by nearly30 @ 09:27 PM 13 Comments

Britain wealthy improve their lot in 2007 on the back of Property

BBC News: Wealth of UK richest 'climbs 20%'

Britain's rich list booms with the "continued buoyancy of the property market", 221 of the richest have made their money from property, so they may be on shaky ground for next years list!

Posted by enuii @ 08:28 PM 0 Comments

latest episode of southpark.

Comedy Central: Night of the Living Homeless

the scene where one guy becomes homeless -genius. you have been warned....

Posted by sam @ 02:43 PM 2 Comments

Home Taxes Rise Although Market Crashing

USA Today: Property Taxes Up as House Prices Fall

For future reference: note that in the States, prices nationally show a modest 1% increase this year -- even though the market is imploding in many areas. Using this argument, and even because they expect other tax revenues to fall due to the housing market collapse and job losses, municipalities and local governments across the board are increasing property taxes, some of them substantially. If you're a government rather than near bankrupt homeowner, it makes sense. Yet another factor to consider when the UK balloon bursts, the wave hits, the bubble pops -- however you want to put it. Yet another reason those riding the rising UK housing prices should have put their good fortune in the bank, not into property in Bulgaria. Add that to the big UH-OH factor.

Posted by indiablue19 @ 12:39 PM 1 Comments

Time wasters essential for estate agents survival

Firstrung: HIPs could wipe out the significant see what happens sellers group - NAEA

Now the Firstrung team are struggling to get our heads around this, you'd think the NAEA would want time-wasters eliminated from what can be a time consuming and expensive process. But no, they actively encourage it apparently. How on earth can serious vendors be put off by the cost of a HIP? If so what kind of fragile business environment do estate agents operate in, moreover what does it reveal about the simplicities of the average agents' business model?

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:28 PM 4 Comments

Fed has lost control of monetary policy and prefers inflation to recession.

Asian Times: Eye On America: Inflation less painful than recession

I'm heartly fed-up with the bias in the UK press. The Asian Times appears good and this article caught my eye. By examining yield curves on long or short US bonds, the article suggests good and bad news for the US economy. The good news is that the housing market will continue to be supported by Chinese and private investor purchases of Treasury and other fixed-income securities. The housing bubble warrants a correction in land values but, as long as long bond rates stay low, the correction will be mild. Prices on existing homes won't fall a great deal. Oh dear - that's bad news for HPC then. But read the article and see what bad news for the US economy could mean for the UK.

Posted by talking rot @ 11:23 AM 7 Comments

Rush to the bookies its this Summer!!

Times: Bank of Japan may raise rates

After the BoJ held Japanese interest rates at 0.5 per cent yesterday, Toshihiko Fukui suggested that the central bank would not be deterred from a new rise in interest rates by persistent weakness in price pressures so long as Japans growth remained in present robust form. Mr Fukuis remarks came after official figures showing that core consumer prices in Japan, excluding food costs, dropped by 0.3 per cent in March compared with a year earlier.

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 10:53 AM 0 Comments

Nationwide argue the market is cooling despite their own figures!

Home.co.uk News: UK Housing crash alert

Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's chief economist, now tries to temper interest rate rises with scare tactics. Having helped talk up the market (and house prices) to their current dizzy heights it would appear they now wish to impede desperately needed corrective measures.

Posted by tinecu @ 09:47 AM 3 Comments

Dash for the exits

Times: Lenders pull plug on fixed-rate mortgage quotes

Thousands of borrowers with fixed-rate mortgage quotes from some of Britains biggest lenders have been told that the figures are no longer valid after banks withdrew products in preparation for rising interest rates.

Posted by sovietuk @ 09:41 AM 2 Comments

Bearish on Spain

Home.co.uk News: Spain may collapse on 70,000 Brits

Panic selling of stocks in Spanish property firms earlier this week could spell disaster for more than 70,000 Britons who own a home there, experts have warned...

Posted by tinecu @ 09:37 AM 0 Comments

Hedge fund manager shown up as an idiot

safehaven: How and Why the Chinese Shanghai Index could implode ...

This week, I had a discussion with a Hedge Fund manager about it. I asked, "How long do you think the Chinese market can go up by adding 1 million investors per week?"

His answer was, "Practically forever ... because they have over 1.3 BILLION people".

The whole market is a ponzi scheme weeks away from imploding

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 07:08 AM 4 Comments

Long article: worth a read

bank of england: The role of household debt and balance sheets in the monetary transmission mechanism

Good graph of how debt levels are tracking HP much closer then in 1989. The problem is much worse than in 1989.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 07:01 AM 4 Comments

Inflation v deflation:

marketoracle: Asset Price Deflation: The New Rules of Real Estate

Near the end of the article: "Gold and silver bugs write in to say that the Fed will opt for hyperinflation over deflation, and that the precious metals will soar (and I've learned to never argue with metals bugs). I offer another opinion: That the United States Federal Reserve will elect to protect the dollar first (its primary legal responsibility), and take the same path it chose in the 1930's when it raised interest rates to prop up the dollar in the face of a deflationary depression. I also say that the real estate collapse and change in psychology will be too unwieldy to prevent a massive credit contraction, and that that contraction will render the Fed impotent."

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 06:50 AM 2 Comments

Debt Intensity, Financial crises, and debt deflation

Daily reckoning: Property Bubbles

Written in 2004. Very much still applies today

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 06:45 AM 0 Comments

The subprime blues (UK release)

FT: Loan standards for buy-to-lets slide

Oops... the UK version of sub-prime is not the mid-west ethnical minorities, but a bunch of desperate, greedy BTLers... oh I forgot, they claim they have built equity, they are professional investors and are in for the long run... you wish!

Posted by confused76 @ 12:24 AM 1 Comments

Friday, April 27, 2007

The next place for property investors: the moon

Ebay: LUNAR DEED CERTIFICATE ,OWN AN ACRE OF THE MOON!!

Ample supply, no greenbelt restrictions and no planning laws, introducing the new target for the next generation of property fools.

Posted by scott @ 09:42 PM 0 Comments

From our favorite SciFi author: Judith Heywood

Times: Is it time to jump in?

An amazing piece of SciFi and Property Porn, probably also subsidized by property developers

Posted by confused76 @ 08:20 PM 8 Comments

Collapse risk in UK house market

Bloomberg: U.K. Home Prices Are `Very Inflated,' at Risk of Collapse, Tchenguiz says

The influx of international capital into the U.K. has created a real estate market similar to the one in Japan that collapsed in 1991, said Tchenguiz. Japanese land prices have dropped about 50 percent from their peak. They increased in 2006 for the first time in 16 years.

Posted by james @ 03:17 PM 4 Comments

More U.S. Housing led bad news

BBC: Slowdown hits US economic growth

The US economy grew at its weakest pace for four years during the first quarter of 2007, figures from the US Commerce Department show.

Posted by holding out @ 03:00 PM 3 Comments

Excellent common sense article

Daily Telegraph: Up to our eyes in debt we can't see

Yet the experts still say, don't worry. Much of this debt is backed by property. House prices are going up; they always do. You know it makes sense. Really? Am I alone in not understanding hocus-pocus economics? How can houses, some of which are being acquired on mortgages of six times the buyer's salary, keep increasing in price at a rate of more than twice income growth? The numbers add up only if you want them to - and plenty do.

Posted by papabear @ 02:16 PM 4 Comments

Lettings are forever! (they are all I need to keep me...)

BBC website: Buy-to-let home owners to double

So called experts wrote this report...

Posted by the capitalist @ 02:14 PM 0 Comments

The Storm is rolling in ... across the Atlantic to the Costa's ... and then into the UK

Times Online: Costas house price crash?

More of the same ... but its coming. <<< Thousands of British homeowners in Spain were on edge yesterday after billions of pounds were wiped off the value of Spanish property developers. >>>

Posted by fahrenheit451 @ 02:11 PM 4 Comments

A storm is brewing in Liverpool or is this just Summer Lightning

Times Online: Prices and politics either side of the border

You have to look about halfway down this article and forget the ramblings about Scoltland. <<< In our second city, the problem is real estate glut rather than shortage. There is a growing oversupply of one and two-bedroom flats in the centre of Liverpool, which is dispiriting news for investors in these properties. >>> ... <<< Many investors are not receiving enough rent to cover their mortgages; >>> etc.

Posted by fahrenheit451 @ 02:04 PM 10 Comments

It's getting closer.....

RTE news: First house prices drop for five years

More evidence on declining Irish property market. Watch the Irish sell off their UK property over the next few months. Clear evidence of our own crash will follow shortly.

Posted by royston @ 12:47 PM 11 Comments

True figure of FTBs - 12.6%?

Firstrung: First time buyers held steady on their market share in March, claiming 12.6% of the market - NAEA

Figures released by The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) from its March housing market survey have revealed a levelling of activity in the residential housing market... The market was seasonal in March, with buyers, sellers and completed house sales all at a similar level to the same period last year. March is traditionally a busier time in estate agency than February and the March figures reflect this, with a slight upturn in activity from last month.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:10 PM 4 Comments

Irish house prices now in reverse

Firstrung: Irish House prices fall for the first time since 2002 - 0.6% in March

The average price paid for a house in Ireland in March was 2,007 less than the average price paid in February according to the latest edition of the permanent tsb / ESRI House Price Index. This equates to a decline in national prices of 0.6% in March. This is the first reduction in national house prices since January 2002, when prices declined by 0.9%.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:04 PM 0 Comments

Nice diagram

thelongwaveanalyst: Inverse liquidity piramid

Notice how property is the 2nd worst asset to hold in liquidity terms.

I have just switched 80% of my gold unit trusts to Tresury Bills this morning.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:50 AM 6 Comments

Gold may fall before it will rise

goldprice: The Dow in Gold Dollars has Been Warning that Stocks Were About to Rally Against Gold

Food for thought

Just a quick warning on some of these sites I post
Sites like www.goldprice.org and www.zealllc.com offer some valuable posts for investing.
Both of these sites are firm believers that we are in a secular bear that started in 2000.

How both sites also think that the secular bear will play out like in the 1970's with a huge commodity boom and inflation
Whilst they may be correct, not all secular bears are the same
Secular bears can be either k-summer or k-winter.
The 1970's was a k-summer and IMHO we will not be repeating this again

With any article you read, always bear in mind the author's knowledge of secular bears

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:26 AM 1 Comments

HPC in press

The Muslim Weekly: Are UK house prices about to crash?

There is a rumour that housing prices will crash in the very near future. "In the past 10 years a global bubble in house prices has developed and it is now bursting," says Jonathan Davis, a chartered financial planner and spokesman for website housepricecrash.co.uk

Posted by nearly30 @ 10:30 AM 0 Comments

A Frightening Glimpse of What Awaits Us

Bloomberg: Bank of Japan Slashes Inflation Forecast, Keeps Rates Unchanged

Property prices falling but still out of reach. Prices of consumables are flat or falling, which prevents interest rate cuts. No, this is not yet another doom-monger's pessimistic vision of Britain's future - it's a description of Japan, today!

Posted by royston @ 09:50 AM 6 Comments

Will you get out there and spend

BBC: Bank of Japan defers rate action

Japan has kept its key interest rate on hold at 0.5% amid fresh concerns about deflationary pressures in the economy.

Posted by holding out @ 09:44 AM 8 Comments

MPC seems convinced Inflation's going to fall

The times: MPC hawk eases fears on bank rate as housing market cools

Fears that a May increase in borrowing costs will be swiftly followed by further aggressive base rate rises from the Bank of England were eased by soothing comments yesterday by one of the leading hawks on its Monetary Policy Committee, Paul Tucker.

Posted by holding out @ 09:07 AM 0 Comments

Pass the parcel

The Telegraph: Derivatives are just dandy - until the music stops

In a bubble, people don't worry about old-fashioned things such as the risk premium because they know they'll find a "greater fool" to hand the problem on to. Which is fine until the music stops.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:14 AM 2 Comments

Very worrying indeed

The Telegraph: Financial crisis looms after rise in risky lending: Bank

"The credit derivatives market has doubled each year since 2003, with outstanding contracts worth $34,500bn, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. Even before this explosive growth, America's most successful investor, Warren Buffett, described derivatives as "financial weapons of mass destruction" that threatened the stability of the world's entire economic system."

Who is going to argue with Warren Buffet?

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:02 AM 1 Comments

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Spain real estate sell-off eases

BBC: Spain real estate sell-off eases

The sell-off in shares of Spanish real estate companies has eased after three days of falls that fanned fears of a possible property crash.

Posted by sonic @ 11:30 PM 0 Comments

Buy-to-let home owners to double

Buy-to-let home owners to double: BBC

The number of buy-to-let home owners may double in the next three years, a report suggests.

Posted by sonic @ 11:29 PM 0 Comments

BOE warn on credit crunch and commercial property risk

Bloomberg: BOE Says Low Debt Premiums Pose Risk to Stability

The central bank raised its assessments of the probability and potential impact of a shock to the nation's financial system stemming from low-risk premiums on credit. The bank also said there is now a greater likelihood of disruption caused by personal bankruptcies as consumers grapple with record debt. ``Risk-taking is increasing,'' John Gieve, the bank's deputy governor for financial stability, said in a statement in London. Growth in markets for transferring credit risk ``could amplify the impact of shocks like a sharp reversal in credit spreads, from their current low levels.'

Posted by ash4781 @ 08:11 PM 0 Comments

Now Cyprus is crashing too

The London Greek News: Cyprus property market heading for crash

Leading sellers of property BuysellCyprus have reported 2-3 per cent point drops in real estate in the island, whilst the occupied territories have experienced a complete drying up of demand for property given the issues of contested ownership. Many of the large developers from Cyprus have resorted to expensive roadshows in the UK to attract custom and offer budget or free travel and accomodation.

Posted by timelash @ 05:14 PM 0 Comments

VI spinner thinks the heat is on

Daily Telegraph: Spanish properties are now bargains In the sun

Pierre Williams of Inside Track, the overseas property investment consultancy, said the bursting of the bubble of Spanish property market was long overdue. "Just as in the UK the era of automatically making vast sums of money on the back of rampant house price rises is over in Spain."

Posted by dobber @ 04:49 PM 3 Comments

Nationwide: April house prices spring ahead

Myfinances: Nationwide: April house prices spring ahead

Britons simply will not stop buying houses it seems, with figures from April showing house price growth accelerated again.

Posted by sonic @ 03:10 PM 0 Comments

Two Standard Articles

Evening Starndard: The property boom may be over, warns Bank of England boss

I don't know about the Beeny article, but there are these two other recent Evening Standard articles: the one above and this follow-up one: http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-3351359-details/House+price+rises+will+fall+to+zero/article.do

Posted by dsg @ 02:54 PM 0 Comments

Hoping for the best

FT: The BoEs what if scenarios

The BOE is apparently playing war games. I hope the have factored in assett price corrections realistically!

Posted by paul @ 02:46 PM 0 Comments

Landmark ruling

Breaking NEWS: No such thing as common law marriges

A landmark ruling has declared that millions of unmarried couples who buy a house together will be denied the same rights given to married couples if they split up. The ruling, made yesterday, has confirmed that there is no such thing as 'common law' marriages

Posted by commercial mortgage man @ 02:43 PM 0 Comments

UK house price growth accelerates in April

FXSTREET: UK house price growth accelerates in April

In a monthly survey of the housing market, it said house prices were up 0.9 pct from March to April and up 10.2 pct from April last year, taking the average house price to 180,314 stg. This was due to unusually warm weather as well as weaker comparable growth a year ago, Nationwide said

Posted by sonic @ 02:33 PM 0 Comments

House price inflation moves back above 10%

Times: House price inflation moves back above 10%

More pressure for a rate rise as latest figures show the price of the average home rose by more than 3,000 last month Slowdown when hosues are rising 3k a month??????????

Posted by sonic @ 02:32 PM 0 Comments

Beeny: House prices have to go down

Evening Standard: Beeny: House prices have to go down

There was a centre page spread in the London Evening Standard last night (Thurs 25th 2007), featuring Sarah Beeny talking about how ridiculous the UK property market is and how prices must come down. I nearly chocked. I'm buggered if I can find it online.

Posted by doomwatch @ 02:32 PM 8 Comments

House price crash predictions are premature - Nationwide

Inflation v deflation: make your mind up time

bloomberg: Gold Prices Are Little Changed Amid Demand for Inflation Hedge

Gold goes up when inflation goes high
It also goes up when banks are threatened and confidence is lost.
It's time to decide if this bubble will end with hyper-inflation or as a deflationary depression.
As the US economy slows, inflation fears will recede and gold will fall.
We are seeing this now.
Personally, I am in the deflationary depression camp
For those who share my views it might be worth waiting for the first stage of the stocks crash before buying gold.
Gold should tumble with stocks initially, as everything gets sold off.
We saw this in February
Once the scale of the crises begins to appear then gold will rise again into orbit.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:44 PM 11 Comments

Not just a conspiracy theory - most people just choose to ignore the obvious, same applies to UK of course

Market Oracle: Consequences of Housing Bubble Crash Ignored by the Media for 2 Years

While housing prices rose at 10% to 20% per year, the American people were duped into believing that such huge leaps were just part of the normal business cycle just supply and demand. They never dreamed that the surge in prices was engineered at the Federal Reserve through artificially low interest rates. Everyone believed that things were just hunky-dory that it was springtime in the land of the free and the home of the chronically indebted. Those who disagreed were derided as doomsayers or lunatics.

Posted by andrew - ealing @ 12:11 PM 8 Comments

Maybe you'll be safe from HPC in here...!

BBC News: Nuclear bunker offered for sale

House hunters in Perthshire are being offered the chance to buy a nuclear bunker set in the grounds of an Edwardian mansion.

Posted by disillusioned @ 12:09 PM 1 Comments

Bear porn in The Sun!

The Sun: It's Sol Gone Wrong For Brits

Who's have believed it? Britain's best-selling newspaper quotes the words "Ponzi scheme" in relation to the Spanish property market and suggests a crash might happen in the UK too.

Posted by timelash @ 11:54 AM 4 Comments

Feckless or Conned?

BBC News: Poor Americans hit out at mortgage claims

Who should get the protection - banks or customers?

Posted by nearly30 @ 11:10 AM 5 Comments

House prices drop to six-month low

AWD Moneyextra: Original News Item

Average property prices fell in March to their lowest level since October last year.................

Posted by commercial finance man @ 09:55 AM 0 Comments

It's all about money supply

The Independent: At 2.8 per cent, UK growth is still robust. So how come living standards are falling?

Money supply has exploded leaving massive profits for companies and masive debts for consumers. Hence the economy doing well and consumers not.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:51 AM 20 Comments

Is fate of the housing market sealed?

Guardian: Repossession fears sparked by rate rises

"Even if the base rate stayed the same next month (scenario one) debt write-off rates would still reach 4.1% by 2009, which would be the highest rate since 1992. Our analysis shows that we might not be that far away from record, or near record, highs for write-offs and repossessions". Thus, it is neither supply nor demand, neither Russians nor Poles, neither marriages nor divorces, neither building permits nor developers... it's a simple 'cash squeeze' that will take the house of cards down!

Posted by confused76 @ 09:40 AM 11 Comments

BOE still unaware of emerging liquidity crisis

independent: Bank warns of increased risks to the UK's financial system

In its twice-yearly Financial Stability Report, the Bank said the financial system remained "highly resilient". Well conditions are still benign so of course this will be the case.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:39 AM 4 Comments

What the mortgage gives us will be taken away for 43000

thisismoney.co.uk: Repossessions 'to double' if rates jump

The number of homes repossessed could more than double if interest rates rise next month, a report has warned. More than 115 families a day will lose their homes because they cannot afford soaring mortgage costs and other debts, it said yesterday.

Posted by p. o. o. r @ 09:34 AM 1 Comments

Please don't raise them too much..please...

Firstrung: House prices rise by 0.9% in April to 180,314 making interest rate rises a 'done deal' - Nationwide

Commenting on the figures Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: While a stable economic environment with contained inflation is essential for a well behaved housing market, we would caution against too sharp an interest rate response to current economic data. In our view, the talk of rates climbing to 6% and beyond are overblown and if implemented in the current climate could be damaging to housing market stability. With the market already showing signs of cooling, too sharp a rate hike could undermine market confidence and dry demand up swiftly. But on top of this, they could also lead to widespread payment difficulties which, in an illiquid market, could precipitate price falls."

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:34 AM 2 Comments

Pamploma syle bull run for the exits on the way..

Firstrung: Mi casa su casa or que ser, ser...

When the UK housing market finally turns many will begin to question just how they got sucked into re-mortgaging to enter the buying abroad mindset. Maybe reality will hit when the Spanish villa or apartment has lost the 20% deposit and the owners are sitting in the cheaper seats of the low-cost airline on their way to inspect their vacant and little used property. It's been vacant for months, the mortgage payment has doubled since 2004 and no-one's responding to the "buy, let or anything" pleading advert tucked away with thousands of others in the 'get 3 weeks advertising for the price of 2' section of the Exchange and Mart.

Posted by converted lurker @ 09:32 AM 0 Comments

Only just rising - Don't raise rates please

BBC: House price growth 'strengthens'

House price growth picked up again in April, the latest figures from Nationwide building society show.

Posted by holding out @ 08:54 AM 4 Comments

Feudal Future!?

Daily Mail: Buy-to-let could double by 2010

The number of buy-to-let landlords could double within three years despite fears of a property crash, a report reveals.

Posted by nearly30 @ 08:23 AM 6 Comments

Party over?

Independent: As Spain falters, is the world's property boom coming to an end?

See how things stand around the world.

Posted by nearly30 @ 08:15 AM 1 Comments

Auntie

London Metro: Homes Blow to Live in Lovers

The most read paper by millions of London tube commuters. Last Paragraph is a goody.

Posted by auntie @ 08:07 AM 0 Comments

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

ARLA funded report tells BTLs not to panic

Independent: Why buy-to-let landlords shouldn't panic - yet

Forecasters are now predicting squally weather for buy-to-let investors, pointing to rising interest rates, the highest cost of living for a decade, and even a possible property crash on the horizon.

Posted by uncle chris @ 10:46 PM 4 Comments

More woes from over the pond

dollar collapse: Housing bubble boondoggle

another well written analysis of the turmoil facing the US housing market that readers here might be interested to read

Posted by rent-to-live @ 10:09 PM 0 Comments

All Foregone Endings

The Daly Mail: Spanish property slump set to claim thousands of British victims

Easygoing 'immigration' as allured by those silly TV programmes pushing 'living under the sun' without genuine interest in and respect for the Spanish way of life and culture, but some greed are making the lives of Spaniards difficult by driving their house prices to the same crazy level as in the UK. Remember this is exactly the same picture we shall see very soon throughout the British Isle, although the article still maintains the following silly mantra with little efficacy any more: "The situation is in contrast with the UK, where the problem has been a lack of new housing being built, which in turn has led to high house price inflation." Say this to those would-be ghost town new developments in all those major cities in the North and Scotland (Glasgow and Edinburgh).

Posted by japanese uncle @ 10:01 PM 7 Comments

Is it the Supply or the Demand?

Firstrung: Liverpool city centre could become a ghost town due to over-development

35% of Liverpool's new city centre apartments are lying empty, as an already flooded property market struggles to attract buyers, housing market experts claimed last night

Posted by confused76 @ 07:49 PM 16 Comments

The Credit Crunch looms large over the US, as the crash kicks into higher gear

Bloomberg: Subprime Bondholders May Lose $75 Billion From Slump

"Bond investors who financed the U.S. housing boom are starting to pay the price for slumping home values and record delinquencies in subprime loans. They will lose as much as $75 billion on securities made up of millions of mortgages to people with poor credit, says Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world's biggest bond fund." "As many as 2.4 million Americans may lose their homes, the Center for Responsible Lending in Durham, North Carolina said in testimony to Congress last month. The National Association of Realtors this month said the median price for an existing home likely will fall 0.7 percent to $220,300 this year, the first annual drop since the trade group began keeping records in 1968 and probably the first decline since the Great Depression. "

Posted by mike @ 05:47 PM 1 Comments

Oversupply on Merseyside?

Liverpool Echo: 35% of city flats are empty

UP TO 35% of Liverpools new city centre apartments are lying empty, as an already flooded property market struggles to attract buyers, housing market experts claimed last night...

Posted by the bear in the woods @ 05:33 PM 0 Comments

While the DOW climbs to alltime high as US housing market dives

BBC News: Dow Jones powers past 13,000 mark

The two just don't seem to add up and I suspect that in the long term in an economy propped up by cash borrowed on the back of property that there will big trouble will be ahead!

Posted by enuii @ 05:27 PM 4 Comments

Rates have peaked?

Firstrung.co.uk: House prices between Northern Ireland and the Republic are set to narrow according to the Bank of Ireland

"In the UK, Dr McLaughlin said, wage growth was sluggish and he expected interest rates to peak at 5.5%, not at 5.75% as the markets were predicting. On exchange rates he said that sterling was very stable against the euro - sterling had effectively joined the single currency. Consequently, the volatility of the euro/dollar rate had now transferred to sterling/dollar." IRs have peaked and no collapse in Sterling....interesting.

Posted by shipbuilder @ 04:03 PM 3 Comments

John Major on BBC Parliament

John Major on BBC Parliament: John Major on BBC Parliament

I saw this taped live, yesterday. It is on BBC Parliament on Saturday at 9PM. He doesn't pull many punches about Gordon Brown and reminds us of just how bad the economy was in 1990. This is well worth watching.

Posted by irishboy @ 03:28 PM 0 Comments

US, Ireland, France and now Spain! Who's next?

Telegraph: Homeowners warned of price crash in Spain

Homeowners with properties in Spain were yesterday warned of an impending house price crash, due to an oversupply of property and rising Spanish interest rates. Shares in Spanish property companies and banks tumbled as much as 22 per cent in a day on fears over tumbling Spanish house prices. The country has seen seven interest rate increases since December 2005 to 3.75 per cent, following a glut of construction activity.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 03:27 PM 0 Comments

Could this be the start?

Moneyextra: ouse prices fall to half-year low

House prices stalled in March - but first time buyers continued to come under pressure, says Moneyextra. Average property values fell in March to their lowest level since October last year. At 220,303, the average price is up just 4.8% on year-ago levels and is actually down 1.2% on February's 222,9231. Property values fell both for first time buyers and for home movers. However, the fall of just 891 - to an average 176,205 - for first time buyers - underlines that this is the sector of the housing market still experiencing the greatest price pressures. Despite the falls seen in the last month, first time buyers are still facing the largest increases in prices year on year, with the average price experienced by those looking to buy a house for the first time rising by 5.9%.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 03:23 PM 0 Comments

Hip hip hooray? Will Home Information Packs bring information overload?

BBC News: Head to head: Too much information?

All people selling property in England and Wales will have to supply a Home Information Pack from 1 June. These packs contain basic details about the property as well as an energy performance certificate. The idea of the packs is to reduce the number of house sales which fall through. Two experts argue whether the packs are up for the task in hand.

Posted by disillusioned @ 01:31 PM 5 Comments

NIMBYS

Firstrung: Properyfinder.com discovers 'nimbyism' and ignorance during recent survey

Propertyfinder.com has revealed that 61.2 per cent of people questioned believe more affordable housing is needed for key workers - just not in their back yard...The latest Propertyfinder.com survey, which looked at public attitudes towards the planning process and new residential developments, found that in principle most people backed the idea of new housing to address supply problems (an estimated shortfall of 50,000 new homes every year). When it came to their own area however, only 39.1% wanted more housing built.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:32 PM 5 Comments

An avalanche of fraud made this mess and an avalanche of defaults will end it

Bloomberg: Subprime `Liar Loans' Fuel Housing Bust With $1 Billion Fraud

Lack of supply was it? Too much demand? Not enough space? It was FRAUD, simply and plainly. Coupled with lax monetary policy. Remember everyone, Japan has a land area of 378,000 sq. km compared to the 245,000 sq. km of the UK, a population of 127m compared to the UK's 60m, is mostly mountainous and only has 20% of it's area available for habitation. Their property market has been in the toilet for 17 years. And that is with a powerful manufacturing economy. So for all those wondering how long this particular drubbing will take UK plc to limp out of the answer uis >17yrs.

Posted by lvmreader @ 11:27 AM 13 Comments

US crashing nicely!

BBC: Sharp decline in US house sales

Sales of non-new US homes fell 8.4% in March, the sharpest month-on-month drop for 18 years and a further illustration of weakness in the US housing market.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 11:24 AM 9 Comments

Considered view from a considered writer

Charles Hugh Smith: Weblog and wEssays: Real Estate Disconnect

The story is a few posts down, so search for "Real Estate Disconnect": "As homebuilders' stocks rise--"the worst is over" yet again--and as inventory of unsold houses piles up, we are witnesses to a grand disconnect of hope/perception from reality. It is merely an observation, not a value judgment, that reality eventually overwhelms perception." An interesting read, quoting several sources. Also relevant is the "Media Disconnect" post.

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 10:53 AM 2 Comments

"Don't worry it's all fine...."

Yahoo Finance: Countrywide sees healthy market by 2009

Countrywide expects the U.S. mortgage market to show improvement in the middle of 2008, and to be "very healthy" for the largest U.S. mortgage lender in 2009.

Posted by nearly30 @ 10:52 AM 2 Comments

Has Spain's property bubble just burst?

MoneyWeek: Has Spain's property bubble just burst?

First America, now Spain. It looks like the Spanish may be the first group of Europeans to experience a painful ending to the global property boom. Yesterday, the Ibex index in Madrid closed down 2.7% as it was swept by fears of a property crash, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in The Telegraph this morning. The wonder is that it has taken investors this long to become nervous

Posted by mary @ 10:33 AM 15 Comments

More people have gone shopping

BBC: UK sees economic growth quicken

The UK economy grew faster than expected in the three months between January and March, National Statistics figures show

Posted by holding out @ 10:12 AM 3 Comments

Is the market finally coming off the boil?

Mirror: Homes 'Cool'

Short and too the point. May get into the consciousness of the masses.

Posted by auntie @ 09:21 AM 7 Comments

Now they tell us.....

Telegraph: Beware the Mortgage Carrot

Borrowers should look further than the carrot dangled in front of them, as there could be a stick not too far away.

Posted by auntie @ 09:16 AM 3 Comments

Crash Cartoons: The Whole series

Krugergold Finance: Crash Caroons

All 3 of the "Crash Cartoons"

Posted by foojam @ 04:36 AM 4 Comments

Panic selling in Spanish real estate sector

ft.com: Spanish property boom ends

Excess stock, corruption, heavy debt load. In many parts of Spain, house prices are falling. A "Soft landing"?

Posted by soothsayer @ 12:34 AM 1 Comments

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Spanish Bubble in danger of bursting

FT.COM: Spanish property groups weigh on Europe

Fears that the Spanish property bubble, which drove companies like Metrovacesa and Sacyr Vallehermoso more than 100 per cent higher last year, was in danger of bursting was highlighted by Mondays 41 per cent fall for Astroc Mediterraneo

Posted by sirgoogle @ 08:35 PM 7 Comments

Forget k-waves, check out the curves on this little beauty

Financial Sence Online: END OF THE BOOM - DJIA 3000

Very interesting blog article that takes a look at the history of home values and the Dow.

Posted by harold @ 08:33 PM 5 Comments

Industry is Dead & Employment is Dying!

BBC News: The future is female, BT predicts

We have had the industrial age, we have had the information economy. But now for something different: "the care economy" [2020],

Posted by nearly30 @ 07:33 PM 6 Comments

Why did he have one trouser leg tucked into his sock?

BBC News: Chancellor reveals maths weakness

I did maths at school and for one year at university but I don't think I was ever very good at it - and some people would say it shows," Mr Brown laughed

Posted by afrobaggie @ 07:12 PM 2 Comments

MPC 'look through the fog '

thisismoney.co.uk: Inflation will fall sharply, says King

He said: 'CPI inflation has risen but now expect it to fall back - this could be a sharp fall back over the next four to six months.' Mr King was giving evidence to the Treasury Select Committee on the 10 years of the banks' monetary policy committee (MPC), which took control of interest rates in 1997. The MPC is charged with keeping inflation within a 1% range of the bank's 2% inflation target. The governor added that the committee's outlook for inflation was little changed despite March's rise and said that the MPC had to 'look through the fog to the medium-term prospects'.

Posted by skhudy @ 06:59 PM 2 Comments

Merv calls the peak

Daily Mail: House price boom is over warns Bank of England boss

The era of booming house prices and low inflation could be coming to an end, according to an ominous warning from the Bank of England. In an unusually strong alert, the normally cautious central bank said: "We cannot guarantee that the next ten years will be so 'nice'."

Posted by rich @ 06:22 PM 2 Comments

Further Bad News for US Home Owners

New York Times: Plunge in Existing-Home Sales Is Steepest Since 89

Sales of existing houses see record fall as well as a price decline. All this is happening in US despite record low unemployment and falling interest rates.

Posted by richc @ 06:11 PM 3 Comments

Where we are, How we got here and Where we are going

trendsman: The American Inflation:

This guy's view is that it all ends in hyper-inflation Great graph in the middle that shows US CPI has been fudged since 1982. shadowstats.com says inflation in the US is 10%

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 05:40 PM 2 Comments

CPI/RPI Statistical Shopping Basket Adjusted

National Statistics Online: Measuring Inflation

Re earlier post regarding Mervyn Kings comments on inflation, the chap may well be right due to the rising value of the pound and adjustments made by the ONS to their virtual shopping basket. Can anyone spot any items listed that may go up in price!

Posted by enuii @ 05:00 PM 5 Comments

House price growth remains "in check"

LSE: House price growth remains "in check"

Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack, told BBC Two's Working Lunch that even though economic conditions were similar to those that led to the last housing market decline, it was unlikely that the UK would see another "slump".

Posted by david20040_0 @ 03:06 PM 5 Comments

Number of 2m homes in London hits all-time high

London Evening Standard: Number of 2m homes in London hits all-time high

According to estate agents and most economists there is no sign yet of a crash. Peter Rollings, managing director of west London agents Marsh & Parsons, said: "The top end of the market is frighteningly strong. It is just amazing the amount of money people are charging for homes - you can almost name your price right now."

Posted by david20040_0 @ 01:38 PM 1 Comments

BIG RUSH TO BEAT MORTGAGE RATE RISE

daily express: BIG RUSH TO BEAT MORTGAGE RATE RISE

HOME owners are borrowing 1billion a day in the rush for mortgages to beat higher interest rates.

Posted by pintail @ 01:37 PM 0 Comments

London house prices research

Landlord Expert: London house prices research

House prices in London have increased by 14.9 per cent in the last year according to research out today from Halifax.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 01:12 PM 0 Comments

Lending figures reflact final last minute rush to lock in rates

The Mirror: HOMES 'COOL'

THE white-hot housing market could finally be starting to cool down - but it could be too late to stop another interest rate rise next month. Mortgage lending set a new March peak of 31billion, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders - 10 per cent up on a year ago. But experts say this reflected a rush to remortgage before fixed-rate deals got more expensive. "There are clear signs the housing market may finally be coming off the boil as higher interest rates and spiralling house prices squeeze new buyers out of the market," said Howard Archer, chief economist at Global Insight. But economists are still predicting a rise to 5.5 per cent when the Bank of England meets next week.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 01:12 PM 0 Comments

Government Figures show house prices fall

citywire: UK sees seasonal house price fall

UK house prices suffered a surprise 1% fall in February, figures released by the Department of Communities and Local Government have shown. The fall was due to a 1.1% decline in the price of bungalows and 0.5% falls in both detached homes and terraced houses, only partially offset by a 0.9% increase for flats and a 0.1% increase for semi-detached homes.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 01:10 PM 0 Comments

B&B see falling demand for mortgages as fear that rates could reach 7.5%

Telegraph: Higher rates beginning to dampen mortgage demand

Rising interest rates are causing demand for mortgages to slow, according to high-street lender Bradford & Bingley. The building society said that mortgage approvals for house purchases have fallen back from their recent peak, although it added that the slowdown in demand was modest. Steven Crawshaw, group chief executive of Bradford & Bingley, said "with the economy remaining healthy and the fundamentals which support the housing market still very sound, mortgage lending is expected to remain at high levels." His comments come after a group of leading economists warned that interest rates, currently at 5.25pc, might need to rise to 7.5pc over the next two years if inflation is to be slowed.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 01:08 PM 0 Comments

More coverage of the recent FSA warning

moneyextra: House prices to dip 20%?

Mortgage lenders should allow for at least a 20% fall in house prices. That's the stark message being given by Clive Briault, Managing Director, Retail Markets, at City regulator, the FSA (Financial Services Authority). In a recent speech before the Council of Mortgage Lenders Briault said that when lenders are calculating their Loss Given Defaults on mortgage portfolios they should allow for a 20% reduction in house prices, and a further 20% reduction from forced sale after a property has been repossessed. In addition, they should allow for 35% of loans in default to end up in repossession.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 01:05 PM 0 Comments

More hype

London Evening Standard: Number of 2m homes in London hits all-time high

"the great thing about a London property, particularly if you come from a developing country, is that it's a safe bet. If everything goes badly wrong where you are based, you can always come over to London and enjoy it." Because, of course, things will never go badly wrong here

Posted by papabear @ 01:03 PM 0 Comments

Finances are being stretched to breaking point!

BBC: UK public borrowing up in March

Does this figure sound a lot to you guys too? 'Corporation tax revenues fell by 32% during March', the ONS said.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 01:03 PM 2 Comments

UK house prices could rise another 15% by end of 2007

Landlord Expert: UK house prices could rise another 15% by end of 2007

UK house prices could be 15% higher by the end of 2007, Lombard Street Research has said.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 01:02 PM 0 Comments

RICS forecasts significant house price growth to come

Landlord Expert: RICS forecasts significant house price growth to come

RICS expects UK house prices to grow by 7% and affordability and accessibility for first time buyers to continue to worsen in 2007. Predicting a small slowdown from this year's 8% growth rate, RICS expects activity to remain high with demand outstripping supply.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 01:01 PM 0 Comments

How the rich got richer

Oxford Mail: How the rich got richer

House prices would drop for sure within three years. So said a group of Oxford economists - well, almost three years ago now. But still we hear that prices, particularly in London and southern counties such as Oxfordshire, are continuing to rocket through the roof. So what is happening? More to the point, does anybody know?

Posted by david20040_0 @ 12:59 PM 0 Comments

Property rumbles in Spain knock UK real estate shares

FT.com: Real estate stocks drag FTSE lower

Madrids Ibex index tumbled more than 300 points, or more than 2 per cent, to 14,675, triggered by worries over property company Astroc, whose shares have plummeted over the last week due to doubts over its financial strength. The news knocked sentiment towards UK real estate stocks, with Hammerson down 1.7 per cent to 15.44 and housebuilder Persimmon 2.9 per cent lower at 13.65.

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 12:37 PM 0 Comments

k-winter is showing classic credit crunch phase

thelongwaveanalyst: 4 phases of longwave

Look at the winter section of the circle

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:30 PM 6 Comments

Alliance & Leicester come up with some new buzzwords

Firstrung: First time buyers and the demographic shift - Alliance & Leicester research

Alliance & Leicester's 'Changing UK Household Market' report undertaken in conjunction with think tank Centre of Future Studies shows that the fabric of society is changing in response to the developing political, social and economic landscape. As the population is living longer, people are spending more time at certain life stages and living in more houses than ever before. Creation of the 'adkid' and 'sandwich' generations...

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:29 PM 0 Comments

Cost of US Sub-Prime

Bloomberg: Subprime Bondholders May Lose $75 Billion in U.S. Housing Slump

Bond investors who financed the U.S. housing boom are starting to pay the price for slumping home values and record delinquencies in subprime loans. They will lose as much as $75BN securities made up of millions of mortgages to people with poor credit, says PIMCO.

Posted by nearly30 @ 11:58 AM 1 Comments

New home buyers forced further afield due to inflated costs

Firstrung: New home buyers creating a 'mass exodus' from urban areas - smartnewhomes.com

The new homes market is experiencing a mass exodus from urban areas with London and major towns in the Midlands recording continued outward migration... SmartNewHomes.com reports that new home buyers are looking to move away from these built-up, urban areas to the north and south west where they are able to find a greater range of more affordable homes and more green space.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:55 AM 4 Comments

BoE not worried about inflation

BBC: Bank sees 'sharp' inflation drop

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said that there could be a "sharp" decline in the UK's rate of inflation over the next four to six months.

Posted by holding out @ 11:47 AM 25 Comments

JUST WAIT TILL IR RISES KICK IN!!

daily mail.co.uk: 11,000 a year to run the typical house

Spiralling mortgage costs coupled with high power bills and other household expenses are squeezing millions of people. The 12 per cent figure is substantially higher than the official inflation rate used by the government which would equate to around 5.2per cent over the same two year period. It suggests that the essential bills associated with keeping a roof over your head are rising way ahead of wage increases. Three quarter-point increases in Bank of England base rate, taking it up to 5.25per cent, has been the driving force behind the higher costs. While City analysts suggest this bill is set to rise further with at least one, and possibly two, further increases in the pipeline.

Posted by uk2day @ 11:13 AM 0 Comments

if we stick our head in the sand inflation will go away! lol!

advfn: BoE external members reiterate commitment to keep inflation on target UPDATE

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - External rate setters on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee today reiterated their commitment to keep the inflation rate on target. Appearing before the Treasury Select Committee, David Blanchflower said the committee would "do everything to keep inflation down." There was broad agreement among the ranks of the external members, namely Tim Besley, Andrew Sentance, Kate Barker and David Blanchflower on the matter and they stressed the importance of managing wider inflation expectations. For his part, Besley noted that it would be critical for the upcoming inflation report next month to communicate the MPC's determination to tackle inflation.

Posted by uk2day @ 10:56 AM 0 Comments

The Fit Hits The Shan in Europe

Bloomberg: Spanish Real Estate Stocks Slump

I can hear those chickens coming home to roost...

Posted by houseoflords @ 10:40 AM 0 Comments

Mansion: Yours for 60!

Observer: Georgian 17-room mansion: 60 to you

After struggling to sell their 650,000 home, a Yorkshire couple have decided to offer it as the prize in an internet contest Who's tempted?

Posted by nearly30 @ 10:30 AM 4 Comments

US sub-prime problems hit car sales says GM VP

BBC: US mortgage woes 'hit car firms'

Genaral Motors vice president Bob Lutz says that problems in the sub-prime market have hit car sales this month. His comments come at a time of record repossessions in the sub-prime. This sub-prime market may be an issue but I smell a rat and think Lutz is saying partly due to GM losing it position as the Worlds Number 1 car maker to Toyota.

Posted by denzil @ 09:03 AM 4 Comments

7.5 percent would put the cat amongst the pigeons

Telegraph: Interest rates could reach 7.5pc

A group of Britain's leading monetarists have launched a harsh attack on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, warning that inflation risks surging out of control in repeat of earlier boom-bust cycles.

Posted by uncle chris @ 07:16 AM 20 Comments

Monday, April 23, 2007

Market starting to slow

The Times: Cooling market not enough to stem rate rises

Signs emerged this morning that the housing market is coming off the boil, though not to levels likely to sway the Bank of England from an expected interest rate rise next month. Suggesting that three rate rises since August are finally beginning to bite, seasonally adjusted mortgage approvals fell to a five-month low of 4.8 billion in March from 5.4 billion in February, the Building Societies Association said.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 09:58 PM 1 Comments

A peek into the future?

The Daily Telegraph (Australia): Cashed-up southerners to force out city dwellers

A look at how high house prices, and high rents, are forcing low income families to live in tents down under. Oh what a good Idea it was to let Mr. Markets (and the men who fix them) rule the World! 'Mr Pisarski said Queensland's problem was being compounded by a population surge, an ageing community, the lowest public-housing base in Australia and an expensive housing market. "Because we have an affordable housing crisis in Queensland, lots of middle-income families can't find places to live," Mr Pisarski said. Hmmmm

Posted by ticktock @ 09:13 PM 5 Comments

reply to a previous post

the long wave analyst: Long wave cycle

Check out the downloads and video on the front page.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 05:21 PM 18 Comments

A May rate hike will be too little, too late

MoneyWeek: Inflation panic grips Fleet Street

It really is fascinating to watch how the Bank of Englands breach of what is, after all, a fairly arbitrary inflation target, suddenly has previously sanguine economic forecasters throughout the press shrieking for immediate action. Trouble is, it's already too late.

Posted by mary @ 04:39 PM 4 Comments

Man tries selling kidney to pay off debts

Evening Standard: Salesman faces jail for trying to sell kidney on internet

After the tory councillor selling his wife to pay off debts we have this: "A debt-ridden salesman is facing prison for trying to sell his kidney for 24,000 on the internet."

Posted by pedagog @ 02:31 PM 4 Comments

Full steam towards the buffers ?

BBC: Mortgage lending is still booming

Mortgage lending is still rising strongly, says the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).

Posted by holding out @ 02:16 PM 0 Comments

Cheapest town's homes top 100k

BBC: Cheapest town's homes top 100k

Every town in the UK has an average house price above 100,000 for the first time ever, according to Halifax. Prices still rising people!!! Crash? Nah.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 02:12 PM 8 Comments

A Collapse in Global Property Prices is on the Horizon

The Business magazine: House of Cards

Property prices have risen too fast and are now too high. Inflation is rearing its ugly head all around the planet. Interest rates are marching steadily upwards everywhere. Homeowners and property investors are caught in a pincer trap and are bing squeezed. The most recent to purchase will be the first to crack. Only those with little debt will survive. However, even they will feel much worse off as the value of their assets decline.

Posted by royston @ 02:10 PM 0 Comments

Crash Or No Crash?

Guardian: Time to make hay while sun shines on the markets

How significant is the fact that sterling has breached $2? The last two times it happened - during the crisis over the ERM in 1992 and in 1981 - it was followed by a painful recession. That looks unlikely this time.

Posted by nearly30 @ 02:04 PM 6 Comments

What can you sell to clear your debts?

ThisIsLondon: Salesman faces jail for trying to sell kidney on internet

"The greedy salesman from Oldbury, West Midlands targeted Kidney transplant patients with the illegal deal in a bid to clear mounting debts"

Posted by confused76 @ 02:02 PM 1 Comments

IFA Advice to BTL: Sell up

Independent: Wealth Check: Sixteen years to wipe out the home loan and retire debt-free

David should consider selling the buy-to-let property, which is "a risky investment", says Mr Witcombe. "If interest rates rise, house prices fall or he loses his tenants, he'll have a serious problem." This seems at odds with the majority of advice/opinion which maintains BTL as a good long term investment ?

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:41 PM 1 Comments

The official start of the meltdown...

Metro: 4,500 Barclays city staff face the axe

Bankers facing the axe or relocation to Amsterdam will think twice before exchanging contracts for their Chelsea two bedrooms (which is as much as even bankers can afford in Chelsea!) Add to this the news about Citibank and you have quite a bleak picture for the London housing market

Posted by confused76 @ 01:37 PM 4 Comments

More bear comments

Guardian: How much you know about becoming a landlord?

... the housing market is now a far from cosy place to be.

Posted by inbreda @ 01:27 PM 0 Comments

Kaletsky and the MPC get a savaging from John Stepek

Firstrung: Weve had the boom - now comes the bust

John Stepek at Moneyweek anticipates economic bust and points out the time at which the MPC lost all credibility: "The Bank sealed the fate of the UK economy when it made that terribly timed, highly divisive decision to cut the base rate by a quarter point way back in August 2004, just as annual house price growth was on the verge of flattening." It really is fascinating to watch how the Bank of England's breach of what is, after all, a fairly arbitrary inflation target, suddenly has previously sanguine economic forecasters throughout the press shrieking for immediate action.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:31 PM 7 Comments

Merger: great way to sack a lot of staff

FT.com: ABN agrees 67bn takeover by Barclays

I wonder what horrors of losses are being hidden with this shotgun marriage of convenience. Something tells me that there will be a lot more than 10% job losses.

Posted by lvmreader @ 11:42 AM 3 Comments

Banks keep on printing more money!!

BBC News: Mortgage lending is still booming

Mortgage lending is still rising strongly, says the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML). Total lending in March amounted to 31.3bn - 10% higher than a year ago and another monthly record. The British Bankers Association (BBA) says net mortgage lending, which strips out the effect of repayments, rose by 5.1bn in March.

Posted by studdymx @ 11:32 AM 0 Comments

UK Property Crash - the View from Dublin

Irish Independent: Old Lady of Threadneedle St has got her rates in a twist

Highly regarded Irish Economics Journalist thinks that the UK property market is closer to crashing than the Irish property market is. Also, he provides the European context for our 3.1 CPI - it's the highest in Europe - even banana republics like Greece and the Republic of Ireland have lower CPI! I would like to see you swerve your way around that one, Mervyn!

Posted by royston @ 11:13 AM 1 Comments

".....we are all living beyond our means."

BBC News: UK economy 'skating on thin ice'

Big 4 accountancy firm, Ernst & Young, is worried that UK plc has borrowed too much and is looking vulnerable.

Posted by royston @ 11:05 AM 1 Comments

Be careful what you wish for

K Waves: The Kondratieff Theory

How could it happen? HOW COULD IT HAPPEN? REALLYHOW ON EARTH COULD IT HAPPEN? How could 99.99% of the population be walking down their street in the sunshine when tip-toeing from behind they get a tap on the shoulder? As they turn round in slow-motion they see a 1930s style depression staring them in the face smiling. Hello its me Im back, says the depression. But, but where did you come from, the world replies. Am I crazy? Well 99.99% of the population would think so. But what do they know. If you only do one thing today (or even this week for the busy person) read this article, read it again, and then start preparing. We are only months away from the start of the second great depression.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:16 AM 9 Comments

Crash On The Horizon

FSA (Money Marketing): House prices could dip by 20 per cent, FSA warns

The regulator is warning house prices could dip by 20 per cent and is warning lenders to factor this into their business plans. Financial Services Authority retail markets managing director Clive Briault told the CML annual lunch today that he does not want to be a merchant of doom but worries about the future of the market.

Posted by commercial mortgage man @ 09:40 AM 0 Comments

Roger Bootle said

The Telegraph: MPC Must be given more room to manoeuvre

If I were on the MPC, I would be voting to get rates up to 6pc, or even 6.5pc. But, of course, I am not - something for which many people may be grateful.

Posted by dobber @ 09:18 AM 3 Comments

Hilarious VI spin on high house prices

CityWire: Spiralling mortgages remain affordable says CML

'Interest rates paid on mortgages have fallen from an average of 10% in the 1980s to around 9% in the 1990s to just over 5% today, says Nick Gardner of brokers Chase de Vere. If people were routinely safely borrowing between three and four times income in the early 90s, they should be able to borrow more than eight times income today.

Posted by little professor @ 08:18 AM 13 Comments

Beware: Times propaganda

Times: Commuters push up the price of an average urban home in the UK

This market frenzy is fueled by irresponsible writing, like this exampe... what a bunch of B/S! We should complain directly with the author at judith.heywood@thetimes.co.uk

Posted by confused76 @ 08:09 AM 3 Comments

Let's have a 0.5% rise

The Times: Fate of sterling is out of Chancellors hands

The Banks task is not just to keep inflation below the 3 per cent ceiling, but to get it all the way down to the 2 per cent official target as quickly as possible and then keep it there. If this is really the Banks objective (and the law says it should be), then there is an overwhelming case for a half-point rate hike next month. The official inflation figures are widely disbelieved, with a widespread view that the old retail prices index, which is rising by 4.8 per cent, represents inflation more accurately than the CPI. So if Mr King is serious about curbing inflationary expectations, a hint of panic might be in order.

Posted by little professor @ 08:09 AM 1 Comments

House Price Crash

Krugergold Finance: HPC Cartoon

What House Price Crash?

Posted by foojam @ 04:51 AM 0 Comments

Sunday, April 22, 2007

Is this the start of the meltdown?

LandlordExpert: Home Information Packs spark selling frenzy

"Traditionally we would expect around 210,000 properties to come onto the market in the month of April but we are already well ahead and it looks like we can expect a record month." Out of personal experience, looking to rent a place in London's commuter belt... entire towns were literaly up for sale this weekend.

Posted by confused76 @ 07:41 PM 4 Comments

Smart money starts getting out

LandlordExpert: Possible interest rate rises force UK lenders to change tactics

"Cheap fixed-rate mortgage deals started disappearing yesterday as banks and building societies began to factor in the possibility of two or even three more interest rate rises in the coming months. The doommongers have predicted an end to Britain's house price boom for years. Are their forecasts finally coming true?" YOU BET!!!!

Posted by confused76 @ 07:31 PM 0 Comments

Review of the week

Firstrung: Property news in focus - Firstrung - 22/04/07

The FSA are warning lenders to manage their risk with a house price correction of 20% in their sights and up to a further 20% loss on disposal if repossessed. Further they suggest that up to 35% of those in default of their mortgages will probably find their properties repossessed. These comments from the MD of the FSA provide, in our humble opinion, the most dynamic piece of property and finance related news of the past week. It must have had plently of guests at the Council of Mortgage Lenders annual lunch choking on their prawn cocktails. Can lenders adhere to these targets and operate within these paramaters, can the BoE control their inflation targets, are both self-inflicted wounds? Plenty of other items for discussion in our popular review of the week..

Posted by converted lurker @ 02:22 PM 4 Comments

Kondratieff theory predicts we're heading for a depression so stear clear of 6X Multiples

Scotsman: Theory suggests we're heading for a depression

Nice little article worth reading from yesterdays Scotsman, flows nicely through the history with the punchline in the last paragraph.

Posted by enuii @ 12:47 PM 7 Comments

Smith's sill optimistic

The Sunday Times: Inflation: far from a basket case

Fathom Consulting, using cautious assumptions about cuts in gas and electricity bills, and assuming further rises in petrol prices, says the Bank will be in possession of information showing an April drop in inflation to 2.8% when it meets next month, presaging a fall to 2% in July and just 1.2% by December. RPI inflation, now 4.8%, will be 2.6% by the year-end.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:05 PM 9 Comments

The future looks bleak

The Telegraph: Brown's mismanagement makes tax rises inevitable

The Ernst & Young Item Club accuses the Chancellor of "blithely borrowing" and making "over--optimistic" forecasts. It warns that Britain "is living beyond its means" and is "highly vulnerable to a reversal in financial market confidence".
I think The Item Club were quite positive last year. They seemed to have changed their tune.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:53 AM 1 Comments

Barratts do it again

Isle of Wight County Press: Dream Home Turns Nightmare

Not really HPC, but a good article on why not to buy new Barratts builds. Oh we have up to 800 new Barratts homes being built locally, talk about bad timing. A previous Barratts build in Cowes, Isle of Wight which is about 14 years old and is still in development isn't attractive prices from two years ago let alone todays speculative prices and many homes there have seen 20% price reductions already. How many mugs will buy one of these and be able to move up............. Sooner them than me :-)

Posted by mattpascoe @ 11:49 AM 0 Comments

Housing Issues Top Dave's Blog

Webcameron: House Prices And Shared Ownership

Not sure if these originated from anyone here but the top two "Ask David" blog posts are about housing. The first re-addresses his "answer" to the housing issue being shared ownership and the second about disincentives for landlords / portfolio holders. A few more votes from people here before the 29th will ensure he has to pay more attention to this issue.

Posted by pendulum @ 11:28 AM 0 Comments

Ever decreasing circles...

Observer: Be careful: equity release might not always set you free

About 50,000 older people are expected to acquire a lump sum averaging 38,000 this year by doing an 'equity release' deal on their house.

Posted by nearly30 @ 11:11 AM 0 Comments

Interest rates may be heading for 6%. Clare Francis asks if higher inflation could spur a property crash

Sunday Times: Will rate shocks hit your house price?

HOMEOWNERS were warned that the risk of house-price falls moved a step closer last week after shock inflation figures raised the prospect of even higher interest rates. The Financial Services Authority, the City watchdog, said lenders should prepare for a 20% drop in house prices because the low interest rates and inflation that borrowers have enjoyed over the past five years are unlikely to continue though it stressed this was not a prediction. Housing-market bears think there are all the ingredients for a sharp fall in prices. ABN Amro, the investment bank, has said that property in Britain is overvalued by 50% and prices have become detached from fundamentals.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 10:23 AM 0 Comments

Saturday, April 21, 2007

Return to Year 2000 Prices

YouTube: Housing Bubbles don't pop; they deflate slowly

This is a very nice summary of the situation facing the US Housing Market. .... and can be easily translated to the UK. Nice and simple - I might even remember the main points for those dinner party conversations with BTL nutters. Well worth a watch.

Posted by sirgoogle @ 09:24 PM 2 Comments

Nice Summary

YouTube: Boom Bust - UK housing bubble set to burst

I've been away for a bit. This was put on YouTube at the end of March - so I do not know whether anyone else has seen it. Nice summary of the Housing Market - and concentrates on Land Value. Watch it if you have not seen it.

Posted by sirgoogle @ 09:12 PM 3 Comments

Global Stagflation: for every investor

Finance Markets: Global Stagflation: for every investor

Simply put, the growth of the global economy over the past few years has been founded on debt. Its not a stable foundation, and already its falling apart. Debt works fine while interest rates remain low - repayments are relatively easy to keep up with, and weak currencies and trade deficits have difficulty making a direct impact. But now the tide is turning - inflationary pressure, originally begun with oil price rises in 2005, continues to rise as factory gate prices continue up.

Posted by cashisking @ 08:20 PM 0 Comments

What we were eagerly waiting to read

FT: Subprime market in UK 'has parallels with US'

The FSA has already identified the subprime mortgage market as a priority area for supervision and is due to report its findings in June

Posted by confused76 @ 05:14 PM 5 Comments

Mortgage your lives away...

Times: Pregnant pause in proceedings

Read about the soul searching of a pregnant couple of FTB's... and the "sensible" advice offered by lenders. "The couple are growing increasingly despondent about their prospects of buying their own home and Vickey says: House prices are zooming beyond our mortgage repayment capability and outpacing our ability to save. Wow! maybe I'm missing something here but "Their rent and council tax are subsidised". Do they want their mortgage payments to come from taxpayers' pocket as well?

Posted by confused76 @ 03:59 PM 4 Comments

Not current, but relevant

Business Week 2005: Housing Bubble or Bunk?

If we go back 2 years to see what the Americans were saying about the state of their own housing market, you'll see that the parrallels are scary. The vested interests were denying a bubble existed and using the same arguments about supply, low interest rates etc. as were hearing now. The independant commentator warning of a slowdown got it spot on. No doubt he was referred to a 'doom monger' too.

Posted by davros @ 01:50 PM 1 Comments

Allow for 20%, ,perhaps up to 40% reduction in prices

Firstrung: Lenders should allow for at least a 20% fall in house prices - FSA

Risks in the mortgage market, a regulator's view. Speech by Clive Briault, Managing Director, Retail Markets, FSA Council of Mortgage Lenders Annual Lunch 20 April 2007..."When lenders are calculating their Loss Given Defaults on mortgage portfolios they should allow for a 20% reduction in house prices, and a further 20% reduction from forced sale after a property has been repossessed; and should allow for 35% of loans in default to end up in repossession."

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:06 PM 0 Comments

Smart estate agents using HIPs to own advantage

Firstrung: Free HIP from Hamptons from June 1st

Hamptons International has announced that it will offer clients Home Information Packs (HIPs) for free, following their June 1st implementation date. This move makes Hamptons the first major residential agent to announce such a strategy...HIPs become mandatory on 1st June 2007 for anyone selling a residential property and will consist of a detailed set of documents providing key information such as copies of a property's deeds and details regarding its energy efficiency.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:06 PM 0 Comments

Mum&Dad suddenly realise they can't afford deposit gifts anymore

Firstrung: First time buyers finding the 'Bank of Mum and Dad' need it paid back with interest

Almost four in ten (39%) graduates would not be able to get on the housing ladder without their parents helping them fund a deposit according to new research from Scottish Widows Bank. However, some parents are no longer willing to give their money away, instead expecting the money needed for a deposit to be paid back...

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:03 PM 5 Comments

Media schizophrenia

TimesOnline: Mortgages

I am posting not an article but the Mortgages web page from the TimesOnline. "House price inflation defies expectations" is followed by captions like "House price rises slow down", "Are we at the end of the mini-boom?" Are the media reaching the turning point and now want to please both audiences, the bulls and the bears?

Posted by confused76 @ 09:59 AM 0 Comments

Things are slowing!!

business.scotsman.com: Rising interest rates hit those buying a home

YET more bad news for anyone thinking of buying a new house or coming to the end of their mortgage deal. Major lenders have been pulling their fixed-rate deals over fears of imminent increases in the Bank base rate. With the Consumer Price Index for inflation jumping to 3.1 per cent this week, most commentators are predicting an increase in the Bank base rate from 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent as early as next month. Lenders have been quick off the mark in withdrawing their fixed-rate deals - a move that will prevent home buyers protecting themselves against the expected interest rate hikes.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 09:49 AM 0 Comments

More fears about pending rate rise

FT: Rate rise expected to put lid on house price growth

Economists predict interest rates will be raised once more this year to 5.5 per cent as the Bank of England looks to continue to curb inflation in the economy. Such a move would compound the effects of the surprise decision to raise rates this week, which is likely to send small tremors through the property market and put pressure on housing prices, analysts predict.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 09:42 AM 2 Comments

HPC gets a mention in this article

Guardian: Is your mortgage about to go through the roof?

This article discusses the likely extent of interest rate rises and their impact on mortgages, and the wider economy.

Posted by paulm @ 08:31 AM 20 Comments

Is time running out for MPC to prove they are serious about inflation

BBC News: Teacher pay award may be reviewed

The two-year pay settlement for teachers in England and Wales could be reviewed because of rising inflation. The independent body which advises the government has asked for its permission to reconsider the current pay deal. Ministers are considering the request. The settlement, with 2.5% rises last September and next, included scope for a review if inflation were to pass 3.25%. The headline rate is now 4.8%. The NUT teachers' union said this meant they faced "a significant pay cut".

Posted by evictee @ 08:14 AM 2 Comments

Are lenders already factoring in rate rises up to 6%?

Firstrung: Credit crunch or squeezing the pips of a lemon?

There's another aspect to this which the mainstream press and most commentators have failed to cover; analysts and the chief economists of major lenders will be constantly poring over data, such as the BoE inflation figures, to establish just how much more the consumer and moreover the housing market can accept before the 'breaking point' of borrowing is reached. At what point do the lenders begin to accept that 'en-masse' the market can no longer accept the tranches of debt that have accompanied the boom in house prices over the past five years without defaults and repossessions increasing exponentially?

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:17 AM 2 Comments

Friday, April 20, 2007

Everybody talks about crash...

Guardian: Boom to gloom?

Interview with the Guardian Money editor... this guy has very bullish views, what struck me is his casual attitude... "yeah, but what is a crash... people has so much equity in their homes... prices fall by 50%?... who cares!" Not a word on the level of indebtedness of the country... not a word on risk!

Posted by confused76 @ 09:06 PM 5 Comments

FSA subprime warning

Citywire: Regulator issues sub-prime warning

Current arrears in the sub-prime mortgage market are 20 times higher than the mainstream, the head of retail markets at the Financial Services Authority (FSA) has warned.

Posted by ash4781 @ 06:38 PM 0 Comments

High Street Down But Prices Up

The Times Online: Retail sales figures fail to allay fears of rate rise

I like the quote "The pace of activity on the high street eased in March, but retailers still managed to push up their prices at their fastest pace for half a year, official data showed today." So, fewer people are buying from the high street but retailers are pushing up prices. This is closer to my view of the UK economy then the view pedaled by Crash Gordon's cronies. I wonder if the Noshbag David Smith has read it?

Posted by talking rot @ 04:22 PM 2 Comments

Ride the U.S. house price roller coaster

speculativebubble.com: US Home prices adjusted for inflation plotted as a roller coaster

Have a ride on this roller coaster. If a picture says a thousand words then this video says a million. Watch it full screen for best effect, and dont spill your drinks. If I charged 100 a go perhaps one day I could buy a house.

Posted by mervis @ 03:59 PM 0 Comments

Tonight I'm going to Party

Telegraph: Boom, boom. Dotcoms are back in the frame

The networking event that brought together the young entrepreneurs and venture capitalists who drove the dotcom boom to such dizzying heights is back. Named with a coy nod to its predecessor First Tuesday, Second Chance Tuesday attracts a heaving crowd of entrepreneurs, breathlessly pitching their ideas to anyone who will listen. Each quarter they gather, brimming with enthusiasm, desperately seeking the one big deal that will make them rich. Only the strongest survive. It is just one of a string of signs that dotcom mania is making a comeback.

Posted by lvmreader @ 03:44 PM 5 Comments

After Spending Big to Strike It Rich, Some Speculators Coming Up Broke as Market Cools

ABC News: Real Estate Leaves One Investor High and Dry

In Sacramento, Calif., not far from where prospectors sought quick riches in the gold rush more than a century ago, another speculative boom is going bust. This time, however, it's not the lure of precious metals it's real estate. Story of how one US property speculator seems to be spectacularly crashing and burning.

Posted by donzy @ 03:38 PM 0 Comments

Two-dollar pound could help cure inflation ills

Reuters: Two-dollar pound could help cure inflation ills

The pound's rise above $2 may squeeze British exporters a little but it could also be just what the economy needs to calm inflation at a time when investors are ramping up their bets on higher interest rates.

Posted by david20040_0 @ 03:27 PM 4 Comments

Bank of Mum'n'Dad: Sub-prime lenders?

BBC News: House buyers 'seek parental cash'

In 1996, 9% of graduates buying a home borrowed money from their parents, but by 2006 this had risen to 18%.

Posted by nearly30 @ 02:47 PM 4 Comments

Irish Property Market Crashes Faster Than You Can Believe

Irish Independent: Property slump bites as staff laid off in leading estate agents

You know its bad when they start firing the estate agents! Interesting, as the RTE documentary pointed out, many of the Irish estate agencies have sold out to big British estate agencies - Savills was one. I wonder if that will have any influence.

Posted by royston @ 02:08 PM 7 Comments

Property markets threaten global "stagflation"

Finance Markets: Global Stagflation: for every investor

Says the continued momentum in the property markets worldwide are accelerating the probably of stagflation and property deflation, though thinks UK conditions means it won't see as bad a crash as other countries.

Posted by julie clarke @ 01:13 PM 0 Comments

Time to reconquer France

Telegraph: Time to reconquer France

"The population density in southern England is about four times greater than much of northern France; and the central point is that our house prices, by comparison with those in France, are therefore demented." Boris, most of the UK issues you describe in your rant have been cased by the greed driven policies of the Tories in the 80s. You bumbling twit.

Posted by doomwatch @ 01:01 PM 1 Comments

Getting close now

Safe Haven: End of the Boom - DJIA 3000

Great graphs
When a cyclical bear joins forces with a secular bear in stocks and then teams up with a property crash we have a depression on our hands

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:40 PM 5 Comments

aren't the 'Friends' cast all in their 40`s by now?

Firstrung: Debt culture more prevalent in early 30's

The 'Friends' generation - those in their early 30s - have the highest borrowing of any age group and they also have a tendency to miss repayments, according to Alliance & Leicester's latest Borrowing Monitor research...People in their early 30s have the highest borrowing including mortgages of any age group - and spend the highest proportion of their income paying interest. They have the highest mortgage exposure and their average unsecured debts total 5,863, 29% above the national average.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:28 PM 6 Comments

Update on last week's Chinese stocks prediction

Safe Haven: China Is Falling "On Schedule"

Lots of scary charts
Chinese stocks can correct another 10% and still remain in a long term bull.
Shanghai 180 has gone up 264% since January 2006
Will this be the start of the bear or is there one final upleg left?

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:01 PM 0 Comments

More good news!

Guardian: The king-sized hangover we face - as Brown takes over

The chancellor's claim on No 10 is the economy, but it's not quite the inflation-proof show stopper it's been cracked up to be

Posted by inbreda @ 10:46 AM 3 Comments

Brighton rocks?

Firstrung: House prices in Brighton enjoy biggest boom in the past decade

Not seen this before, although in, for example, France prices are always measured in sq. metres. It's be interesting to compare 'value' (prices) for money vis a vis our Gallic chums..

Posted by converted lurker @ 10:36 AM 1 Comments

Words fail

Firstrung: Private sector landlords are being advised to refuse tenancies to housing benefit claimants

RLA chairman Lee Dribben: "The trouble is ... the money is often spent on other priorities instead of paying the rent and there are no winners from a situation that just encourages more rent arrears. Landlords can't afford to take that sort of financial loss on a routine basis while they chase defaulting tenants who have already spent their rent allowance on other things. Vulnerable low-income tenants, who already have difficulty managing their money, are being driven further into debt. And the resulting withdrawal of affordable private sector rented housing from the claimant market would shift crippling pressure onto the public sector.

Posted by converted lurker @ 10:19 AM 5 Comments

Guardian using the 'Crash' word

Guardian: Lenders pull fixed-rate mortgages. Is a housing market crash coming?

V interesting article, mentions lots of important names stating the market is over-hyped, even covers a piece on this website.

Posted by wsn03 @ 09:48 AM 9 Comments

Metro joins crash chorus

Metro: Risking all just to buy a home

First-time buyers are risking homelessness as they resort to desperate measures to get on the property ladder, a housing charity is warning. The number of people whose homes have been repossessed or are struggling with mortgage arrears has doubled in the past two years, says Shelter. Some are falling into debt after signing lifetime mortgages of six or seven times their salary. (Front page of this morning's Metro)

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 08:45 AM 10 Comments

Buying a home is risky business

Metro: Risking all just to buy a home

"First-time buyers are risking homelessness as they resort to desperate measures to get on the property ladder, a housing charity is warning. The number of people whose homes have been repossessed or are struggling with mortgage arrears has doubled in the past two years, says Shelter."

Posted by monty @ 08:44 AM 1 Comments

Nothing to see hear folks. All is fine, move on

Star Telegram: D.R. Horton quarterly earnings fall 85%

Quarterly income for D.R. Horton, the countrys largest homebuilder, was down 85 percent from a year ago. The company reported a $51.7 million income for the the quarter, down from the $352.8 reported the same quarter a year ago.

Posted by lvmreader @ 01:54 AM 2 Comments

Thursday, April 19, 2007

This might be of some interest

Dublin university: economics and housing

The market in the Republic of Ireland is stagnant. Hopfully it will soon spead into the north and the rest of the UK. Happy Days!

Posted by vikin1976 @ 11:50 PM 0 Comments

A very bad piece of journalism

Times: With rents suddenly going sky-high, tenants would be wise to push for a long-term fixed deal

The Times scare tactics. What a "paid cheerleader" the journalist who wrote this piece. Filled with (at best) anectodical evidence elevated to general truth, but fundametally leaving me with the question "what was she actually trying to say?" Please, let us complain vigorously about this article (the writer email address is at the bottom of the piece).

Posted by confused76 @ 10:33 PM 11 Comments

Why IR rises will be slow to work

finance markets: More buyers choose fixed-rate mortgages

85 percent of first-time home buyers chose a fixed-rate mortgage, while 70 percent of those moving from one house to another did so
This explains why 3 rate rises have had no impact at all. Why inflation will run away... 1. Inflation has more to do with global influences than local. 2. With so many people on fixed rate mortgages - IR rises will have to go much higher to have any impact. This boom will run to the end of the year. the effects will last a decade or more.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 03:55 PM 8 Comments

This should make people think twice before they buy

BBC: Lenders pull fixed-rate mortgages

Lenders have started to withdraw their fixed-rate mortgage products in preparation for a possible Bank of England (BoE) interest rate rise. Alliance & Leicester pulled its fixed-rate deals on Wednesday, and the BBC has been told that two other major mortgage lenders will now follow suit. Lenders often withdraw mortgages when interest rates rise. They base their borrowing costs on money market rates, which in turn are linked to the BoE's rate. Price growth On Wednesday, the UK inflation rate rose to 3.1%, which was higher than expected.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 01:02 PM 0 Comments

Old News?

Firstrung: Estate agent banned from her practice and imprisoned for 30 months for theft

The OFT has made a prohibition order against a Warrington estate agent banning her from estate agency work. On 24 March 2006 at Knutsford Crown Court, Janice Griffiths of Janice Griffiths & Company, 101 London Road, Stockton Heath, Warrington, was sentenced to a total of 30 months imprisonment after admitting two counts of theft and being found guilty of perverting the course of justice.

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:00 PM 1 Comments

Moneynet warns of 'double whammy'

Firstrung: Rise in interest rates plus introduction of HIPs could put brakes on housing market

A rise in the Bank of England base rate rise in May, together with the introduction of Home Information Packs in June are likely to put the brakes on the property market, Moneynet.co.uk has warned...Most market commentators are now forecasting a 0.25% rise following this week's news of the leap in inflation figures, says Moneynet.co.uk.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:22 PM 3 Comments

And now, the end is near.....

Telegraph: Mortgage lenders pull fixed-rate deals

Mortgage brokers said Tuesday's announcement of a shock rise in inflation had resulted in a rush of customers wanting to fix their mortgages before the Bank of England took action.

Posted by nearly30 @ 10:00 AM 28 Comments

Unbelievable... Times delivers blow to MPC!

Times: Awful fate that awaits the kings of wishful thinking

Please post an avalanche of comments on The Times blog. Well done to The Times, but long overdue!!

Posted by confused76 @ 09:54 AM 11 Comments

Inflation to come out of china

BBC News: Chinese growth heating up economy

2 points here.
Inflation to come out of China and move into the rest of the world (contrary to Smithy's opionions)
The posting last week on safe haven about a Chinese stock sell off wasn't too bad.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:22 AM 3 Comments

Banks strong results snub sub-prime problems

BBC: Dow Jones sets new all-time high

The Dow Jones has closed at an all-time buoyed by strong results from J P Morgan Chase. It was feared that sub-prime problems would would hit the "big" financial institutions hard but as yet that does not seem to be the case. I ask myself has the sub-prime market problems had sufficient time to manifest itself or in the grand scheme of things is the sub-prime problem little more than a storm in a coffee sized mug that will have little impact on the UK market.

Posted by denzil @ 09:11 AM 9 Comments

Future Shock: Property Crash

RTE: Irish Property Crash

Documentary about the imminent property crash in Ireland. There have been a number of recent posts about the reaction to this documentary - our friend Morgan Kelly's appearance on RTE's Prime Time, the Belfast newspaper's accusation of 'irresponsible' programming - well, here is the original documentary. There is a good section on the last UK property crash in the early 1990s.

Posted by royston @ 12:36 AM 11 Comments

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Dave sets out tory view on house prices

WebCameron: Ask David: House prices, Armed Forces, Pensions

David Cameron responds to the question posed by the PricedOut Campaign, "NuLabour's head is in sand over house prices, shared ownership is not the answer, can Conservatives do better?" - LEAVE YOUR COMMENTS ON HIS BLOG

Posted by paulm @ 10:36 PM 10 Comments

After the gain comes the pain

This Is Money (Daily Mail): After the gain comes the pain

Gordon Brown has relentlessly boasted of his success in defeating boom and bust. But the reality is that no one has yet found a way of overcoming the economic cycle. Once again growth has been allowed to run away and as the brakes are slammed on, we will have to face the dire consequences...........

Posted by cashisking @ 08:43 PM 5 Comments

Irish housing market bubble

RTE: Soft landing or crash landing for property boom?

Sorry I am reposting, just in case anyone missed this link buried in a previous comment of mine. Webmaster, this broadcast is so entertaining it may deserve a place among the site permanent links

Posted by confused76 @ 06:41 PM 3 Comments

Sub-prime creativity made in UK

Guardian: Rent-a-room mortgage launched

This is much beyond simply scraping the bottom of the barrel! This is criminal mis-selling! On the fun side, mortgage lenders will never stop amazing me for their creativity and spin ability.

Posted by confused76 @ 05:09 PM 7 Comments

Beware Property Bubbles

Business Week: The end of a 1400 Year Business

To sum up the lessons of Kongo Gumi's long tenure and ultimate failure: Pick a stable industry and create flexible succession policies. To avoid a similar demise, evolve as business conditions require, but don't get carried away with temporary enthusiasms and sacrifice financial stability for what looks like an opportunity. These lessons are somewhat contradictory and paradoxical, to be sure. But if sustained success came easy, then all family businesses would have a 1,428-year run.

Posted by afrobaggie @ 01:41 PM 1 Comments

Stock market crash coming soon

Safe Haven: CNBC Europe

We all know a stock market bear market is nearing soon
If the S&P 500 index goes above its Feb peak in the next few days then it will run higher until mid June.
If it doesn't then the secular bear starts from here

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:38 PM 4 Comments

Follow the money?

Firstrung: Buy to let landlords encouraged to think 'outside the box'

Now we want all first time buyers to pay close attention to the comments of Lee Grandin at Landlord Mortgages. Here Lee is (quite rightly) advising his clients to not ignore the opportunities and benefits of buying older property which could require some TLC, as opposed to buying property that can be occupied immediately with the minimum of effort...we call it building in some 'sweat equity'. This could be a vital part of any first time buyers' 'buying strategy' if they want to build in some equitable value into their purchase...

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:20 PM 6 Comments

Blimey that was quick

Firstrung: Two dollar pound results in renewed interest in US property

No sooner is 1 worth $2 and we're all off to Miami to buy a condo... =;)

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:17 PM 4 Comments

VI's getting stressed over the 'C' word

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk: Property analysts slam 'sensationalist' RTE documentary

Property analysts have described last night's TV document about a possible crash in the housing market as sensationalist and irresponsible. The Future Shock documentary on RTE claimed property prices could theoretically fall by up to 30% in some areas due to overvaluation as a result of the recent boom. However, experts say this scenario is highly unlikely to ever materialise and homeowners should not be too worried. Marie Hunt from CB Richard Ellis says "irresponsible" scare stories like that examined in the programme can actually damage the property market and the economy in general by undermining confidence.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 12:13 PM 13 Comments

Not the end, but perhaps......

BBC: UK unemployment starts moving up

The number of people out of work increased by 21,000 to 1.69 million between December and February, but the unemployment rate was steady at 5.5%.

Posted by holding out @ 11:45 AM 5 Comments

Easy Credit Explained - UK Relevant

Money Week: Who will be caught out by easy credit next ?

A very good Insight article, for those of us who still may be puzzled how the Credit Bubble has built up, i.e. know nothing about economics but know that something is not quite right with out economy. "Its a process that starts slowly. The early ones nervously join the game and achieve the objective of buying a house they cant afford with money they havent got. As the value of the property they couldnt afford to buy with money they didnt have goes up, the mortgage provider suddenly has a margin of security. As long as the value of the property increases at a greater rate than the payment of interest they cannot afford, then all the sub-prime borrower needs to do is periodically re-finance the mortgage. Their equity grows from nothing to something, it is a miracle of alchemy."

Posted by andrew - ealing @ 11:32 AM 3 Comments

Split vote as expected

BBC: Bank voted 7-2 to hold UK rates

Surprisingly Blanchflower did not vote for a cut.

Posted by holding out @ 11:31 AM 7 Comments

Here we go ... Base rates going ... up ... up ... up >>>

Times Online: Letter to Brown as inflation passes 3%

"Mervyn King rounded off Gordon Browns decade as Chancellor yesterday by sending him his first letter explaining why inflation had risen above the 3 per cent mark, to its highest level for more than 14 years." "Short sterling traders moved to fully price in a rise in rates to 5.5 per cent in May and another quarter-point rise by the autumn, after Mr King gave warning that a consumer recovery may have given businesses the green light to raise prices." Well it's arrived now, 5.5% next month and 5.75% in the summer ...

Posted by fahrenheit451 @ 10:44 AM 0 Comments

Could interest rates hit 6% this year?

MoneyWeek: The City's big wake-up call on inflation

We did say that the Bank of England should have raised interest rates this month - and we wonder if perhaps the Monetary Policy Committee is now wishing it had done just that.

Posted by mary @ 10:27 AM 2 Comments

MPC vote to stay at 5.25% through April

BBC News: Bank voted 7-2 to hold UK rates

Minutes from the April Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, responsible for rate-setting, show that the members voted 7-2 in favour of keeping interest rates unchanged at 5.25% in April. Despite this vote, the jump in inflation is likely to trigger a rise in rates to 5.5% at the Bank's next meeting, say analysts.

Posted by disillusioned @ 10:18 AM 0 Comments

Trouble in the States

BBC: Sub-prime crisis sours US dream

Horribly emotional piece from some Commie at the BBC. It drifts into being about black oppression too which is absurd but the overall sentiment is one of a deepening crisis in the US.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:17 AM 4 Comments

So higher interest rates and higher unemployment means.......

BBC NEWS: Unemployment total begins rising

The number of people out of work increased by 21,000 to 1.69 million between December and February, but the unemployment rate was steady at 5.5%.

Posted by scumbag @ 09:52 AM 0 Comments

There's a storm acomin'

Daily Express: Big Mortgage Rises Coming

CRIPPLING rises in mortgage bills were forecast as certain last night after a shock leap in inflation.

Posted by nearly30 @ 09:44 AM 4 Comments

Half percent rise?

FT.com: Inflation seals Banks interest rate fate

UK interest rates look certain to rise again possibly by half a percentage point by autumn after a shock jump in inflation which also pushed sterling above $2 for the first time in 15 years. Markets were convinced of the inevitability of a 0.5 point increase by the end of the year, while a Reuters survey on Tuesday showed 49 out of 51 economists polled thought rates would rise by a quarter of a percentage point to 5.5 per cent next month.

Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 09:09 AM 6 Comments

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Monkey Dust addresses the affordability issue

youtube: Monkey Dust episode

This episode of Monkey Dust, which is a cartoon that pulls no punches about UK life, has a funny sketch at the end about a teacher and a nurse couple struggling to find somewhere to buy. It is really funny.

Posted by scott @ 10:38 PM 1 Comments

Is House Price Crash a "Predictions Registry"?

DavidBrin.com: The Predictions Registtry

Disagreeable, yes. But wholly unanticipated? In how many cases did someone warn in advance against the very unpleasantness that eventually happened? Someone who might have seemed irritating at the time, received scorn or maybe banishment. Would it serve any useful purpose to grant high prediction scores, after the fact, as consolation prizes to Cassandras whose original dire warnings were ignored? Or might it simply give them a forum to cry, "I told you so"?

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:16 PM 5 Comments

With the Pound so strong, how come inflation is rising so fast...?

Safehaven: Whats the Two-Dollar Pound Hiding from the Markets?

British savers are already under water. They'd best hope that Mervyn King makes good on the currency market's expectations of higher rates. Otherwise, the Pound looks fated to fall - fast - pushing the rate of inflation yet higher again.

Posted by cashisking @ 09:07 PM 1 Comments

Witness the peak or a last dash to the top!

ITV Tonight @ 20:00: My Big Fat Property Fortune

One-off documentary featuring the real-life tales of people who have raked in enormous profits buying and selling property.

Posted by nearly30 @ 07:42 PM 7 Comments

The UK version of sub-prime

Guardian: Alarm over loans that can make debtors homeless

Borrowers struggling with personal loans and credit card debt are being pressured to take out consolidation loans that could result in the loss of their homes

Posted by confused76 @ 07:02 PM 10 Comments

Merv's letter to Mr Brown

Bankofengland.co.uk: Merv's Letter

Waffle Waffle Waffle - Don't really know what is going to happen, but hope the increase is just a glitch.

Posted by p. o. o. r @ 06:47 PM 0 Comments

Real IR after basic tax turns negative

Safe Haven: Whats the Two-Dollar Pound Hiding from the Markets?

Despite gaining such kudos from the forex markets, all the Bank of England has really given British voters - as Tuesday's awful cost-of-living data prove - is a collapse in the real rewards paid on cash savings.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 06:08 PM 7 Comments

Moving out of property.

Guardian: Nils Pratley's Viewpoint

Wind of change - A diary item in the weekend papers reported that Matt Barrett, the former chairman of Barclays, had sold his Chelsea home and moved into rented accommodation...

Posted by ftbsean @ 05:29 PM 0 Comments

Wealth from increased house prices an illusion

BBC News: Evanomics: Is the China effect over?

The risk has long been that we would discover that underneath our strong economy, was brewing some hidden inflationary pressure. If that emerged, it would imply that some of our recent economic success had been built on shaky foundations: it would mean that interest rates had perhaps been "too low", that the borrowing we have done on the back of low interest rates was less affordable than we thought, that the house prices we have paid on the back of easy borrowing are unsustainably high, and that any sense of consumer wealth deriving from higher house prices is a mere illusion.

Posted by pedagog @ 04:42 PM 13 Comments

It's supply and demand, all over again!

MortgageIntroducer: A flat out case of overload

Together with the CPI > 3% and the news that 3i has withdawn offer for Foxtons, this link makes another great reading today. Among the best statements: "With the aching shortage of housing in the UK, one would not think that, at the moment, there is too much development. Yet, this very problem is rearing its head in the form of new build flats and apartments" "There is only the possibility of a slump in this market if interest rates get hiked by 0.50 to 1 per cent. A lot of places would no longer be viable then and smaller investors would be vulnerable" The downside of oversupply is rents and yields might reduce in the short term, but it is a reasonably safe investment because most people investing are those with bigger portfolios B@***@rds!!!

Posted by confused76 @ 04:20 PM 3 Comments

smashes through $2 barrier on CPI figures!!

BBC News: UK pound goes through $2 barrier

The pound has moved through the $2 mark for the first time since 1992, as investors bet that interest rates would have to rise further to slow inflation. (up 0.85%)

Posted by nearly30 @ 02:10 PM 0 Comments

Things getting worse in CA

www.iii.co.uk: Mortgage defaults notices spike

LOS ANGELES (AP) - Mortgage defaults in California increased on an annual basis in the first quarter to the highest level in nearly a decade, a spike fueled largely by people who bought a home or took out an equity loan in the past two years, a real estate research firm said Monday. A total of 46,760 default notices were sent to homeowners in the first three months of the year, up 148 percent from 18,856 in the first quarter of 2006, according to DataQuick Information Systems. The latest figures represent a 23.1 percent increase since the fourth quarter of 2006, when a revised 37,994 defaults notices were sent out statewide, the firm said. Most of the mortgage loans that went into default in the most recent quarter were taken out between April 2005 and May 2006, the firm said.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 01:33 PM 2 Comments

Gordon Brown ignores Bank of England advice

TimesOnline: Brown lost 2bn selling UK's gold

Gordon Brown is to face questions in parliament after the revelation that he managed to sell 400 tons of bullion whilst the market was at a 20 year low. Since the sale prices have trebled. The Bank of England which has managed gold reserves for the past 300 years had serious misgivings over the chancellors decision to sell at the bottom of the market. An insider claims that several Asian countries including China bought the gold "on the cheap" from the treasury. It is estimated that the Chinese may have made more than 1 billion from Brown's botched sell-off. It would seem that there may be some smoke to the fire in which Lord Turnbull Britains former top civil servent claimed Brown behaved with Stalinist ruthlessness and treated collegues with complete contempt.

Posted by denzil @ 01:13 PM 9 Comments

A call of no-confidence is hardly a good start for the next PM

BBC: Brown facing no-confidence debate

The Conservatives are set to call for vote of no-confidence over Gordon Brown decision to scrap tax relief on pension funds. Mr Brown insists the decision which has raised 5bn a year was the right one and a key reason the UK economy has been so strong over the last decade. A more cynical person may suggest that once one factors out Brown's pension raid, growth through high migration and the conversion of houses into personal cash machines then there is not much of a "miracle economy" to shout about.

Posted by denzil @ 12:59 PM 0 Comments

Credit tightening on mortgages

Home.co.uk News: Mortgage rejection misery intensifies

Cautious lenders have rejected over 460,000 mortgage applicants in the past six months, according to a recent survey... Reuters reports that over 463,000 people were refused a mortgage in the half-year to mid-March, with applicants aged 18-34 the worst affected, the research by financial comparison Web site MoneyExpert.com found. With another interest rate rise widely anticipated next month, the number of rejected applications could mount.

Posted by tinecu @ 12:57 PM 1 Comments

Buy-To-Lie up the creak

The inerweb: I am facing forclosure

This web site was recentley quoted in the Economist to illustrate the stupidity of the Buy to lie market. The BTL is currenlty 2.2 million in debt. Ouch.

Posted by doomwatch @ 12:51 PM 2 Comments

Yet more psuedo-economics from the BBC

BBC "News": Q&A: High inflation and you

Yet more peddling of the supply and demand myth from an unattributed editor.

This is classic lies:

However, the UK is very densely populated and the amount of new supply of housing stock coming onto the market lags far short of the demand.

Posted by paul @ 12:34 PM 5 Comments

Don't bank on a rate rise yet! He's Swervin like mad!

Reuters: BoE's King-CPI pushed up by fuel in March, will fall back soon

An unexpectedly sharp rise in petrol and food costs propelled inflation in March, but it will fall back within months, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said on Tuesday in a letter to the government explaining the surge in prices.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 11:41 AM 19 Comments

Pound rises briefly above $2 mark on the day that UK inflation hits 3.1%

SKY News: Pound rises above two dollar rate

The pound has broken through the $2 mark for the first time since September 1992 - when Britain withdrew from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism - or ERM. The ERM was Europe's central money system and the precursor to the single currency, the euro. After passing the psychological barrier this time, the pound fell back to just under $2.

Posted by webmaster @ 10:33 AM 1 Comments

UK Mar inflation hits 3.1 pct, BoE must explain itself

reuters: UK Mar inflation hits 3.1 pct, BoE must explain itself

Looks like rate rises are a cert!

Posted by phoneymcringring @ 10:14 AM 2 Comments

The Eagle Has Landed

BBC: UK inflation hits 3.1% in March

The Bank of England governor will have to write a letter of explanation to the government after UK consumer price inflation rose to 3.1% in March.

Posted by sovietuk @ 09:54 AM 8 Comments

CPI up again

Office of National Statistics: CPI at record 3.1%

Looks like someone is going to be writing a letter.

Posted by richc @ 09:34 AM 25 Comments

More Mortgage Problems in the US

Reuters: Experian sees subprime challenge continuing in H1

LONDON, April 17 (Reuters) - Credit information firm Experian (EXPN.L: Quote, Profile , Research) expects a "very challenging" environment for its LowerMyBills unit in the first half of this financial year, hit by ongoing turmoil in the U.S. subprime mortgage market. In the third quarter, LowerMyBills, a part of its Americas business which gives advice on mortgages, loans, debt consolidation and debt relief, saw flat sales, but it saw an 8 percent drop in the fourth quarter.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 09:07 AM 0 Comments

More coverage

www.housefund.co.uk: Surprise as UK house prices fall

House prices in the UK fell by 0.1% between January and February, the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) has said. The figures form part of the the government's official house price index, and found the average home costing 205,102 in February, down from 205,339 in January.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 09:05 AM 0 Comments

Leased gold from central banks gone forever

The Telegraph: Fears over Treasury losing control of gold left in its vaults

I read about this 6 months ago
It was only a matter of time before it hit mainstream press
Central banks lease out their gold to bullion banks
This gold gets sold and manufactured into jewellery
The CB gold still appears on its balance sheet although it is gone forever
The problem is that in a banking crisis when gold is needed to shore up a currency, and the price of gold has tripled (or more), the bullion banks can no longer afford to buy the gold back
We haven't heard the last of this story

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 05:59 AM 2 Comments

Monday, April 16, 2007

HPC.co.uk on BBC 10pm News, Friday 13th April

BBC News: 10 O'Clock News

I kept expecting someone to post a link to this - it caused great excitement on the Forum (over 17k hits in less than a week), but it's absence from the blog (unless I missed something) suggests that there is even less of an overlap between the readership of each than I thought. It made my day though. If you want to jump straight to the discussion on the subject, it starts at http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=45311 (sorry, dont know how to set it out as a link) then fast forward a few pages - much of the later stuff is about how to download a decent video of it, so if the bbc link doesnt work, try one of those mentioned on the forum. It's well worth a look.

Posted by bidin\'matime @ 08:33 PM 19 Comments

Are we heading for a crash?

Fool.co.uk: Are we heading for another housing crash?

There's been some comment on our Property - Markets and Trends discussion board that the current housing market feels similar to that of the late 80s. One poster argued that there were ten buyers to a house back then and greater numbers this time. Shortly after the housing market went ballistic, he writes, the market went into reverse. Foolish writer Cliff D'Arcy also fears the worst, as he explained in Why The Next Housing Crash Will Be Worse! However, another Fool.co.uk expert argues there is no crash imminent!

Posted by matt @ 02:04 PM 12 Comments

Some say prices up, some say prices down, but everyone says Interest Rates going up ...

Times Online: Annual house-price inflation at highest rate in four years

"Asking prices for houses have shot up at their fastest pace in five years, despite widespread expectations of a slowdown, a survey shows today." "The Banks rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be wary of the risk that Rightmoves April figure may be a blip rather than a change of course, but the MPC will be troubled by other signals that the market may, indeed, be gaining strength again." So ... here we go ... base rates going up ... but where will they top out ... 6%, 7% or more ...

Posted by fahrenheit451 @ 01:51 PM 1 Comments

More coverage of the Gov stats

viewlondon.co.uk: House prices fell in February

House prices across the UK fell by 0.1 per cent in February, according to government figures. Statistics from the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) show that the average UK house price fell from 205,399 in January to 205,102 a month later. Despite the slip the year-on-year rate of property value growth accelerated to 12.1 per cent, up from 10.9 per cent in January, however. The DCLG said that price falls for bungalows, terraced housing and detached houses all contributed to the February slip, while the regions with the slowest growth rates were the Midlands, the north-west and Yorkshire and the Humber.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 01:44 PM 0 Comments

One of the key inflation measures up dramatically

Firstrung: Annual inflation for all manufactured products rose to 2.7 per cent in March - ONS

The infamous image to the left is of a German woman in 1923 burning the worthless currency to simply keep warm. We've provided a link to the search.com entry which discusses how the currency was hyper inflated at the time and the end result. No idea what house prices were at the time in the Rhine version of Gerrards Cross... In March, output price annual inflation for all manufactured products rose to 2.7 per cent. Input price annual inflation rose from -1.2 per cent in February to 0.7 per cent in March...

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:39 PM 3 Comments

That's another new car next month!!

Metro free paper: Houses rise by 8,000 a month

House prices rose by a record 8,000 last month, figures show. The 3.6 per rise is the largest monthly rate of increase in five years. No end in sight to this madness? I believe it will get worse before it gets better and that's frightening!

Posted by dr k @ 12:03 PM 1 Comments

Video: US house prices - a rollercoaster ride

Speculative Bubble: US Home prices adjusted for inflation plotted as a roller coaster

Video showing US house prices (adjusted for inflation) from 1890 onwards, plotted as a rollercoaster ride. Effective in showing prices can go down as well as up.

Posted by tessa @ 12:01 PM 1 Comments

Where next?

Bloomberg: Pound Rises to Highest Since September 1992 on Rate Expectation

The U.K. currency rose for a fifth day as reports showing accelerating house-price inflation and factory gate prices rising the most in 11 months stoked speculation borrowing costs will be lifted.

Posted by nearly30 @ 12:00 PM 8 Comments

Prices rise 2.9%

BBC News: Sharp jump in factory gate prices

"We should be worried," said HBOS treasury services economist Adam Chester.

Posted by nearly30 @ 11:58 AM 5 Comments

Subprime! The legal onslaught about to be unleashed!

Bloomberg: Subprime Losers Blame Bear, Credit Suisse, JPM, Morgan Stanley

When Buck Meyer thinks about the $300,000 he lost after he bought a subprime mortgage lender's bonds, he doesn't hesitate to denounce financial titans Bear Stearns Cos., Credit Suisse Group, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 11:36 AM 4 Comments

UK Property Prices Fall - Official!

BBC News: Slight fall in UK property prices

Official figures from Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) showed that average UK property prices fell in January and February of this year. Obviously, this is in sharp contrast to the increased asking prices that Rightmove.co.uk reports being requested. Either there is some big discounting going on, or somebody is trying to muddy the waters! - Maybe both!

Posted by royston @ 11:35 AM 7 Comments

Signs of a credit crunch?

Firstrung: Mortgage lenders reject 460,000 applications since recent interest rate rises

Research from the independent financial comparison website shows that the rate increases, with another expected during the summer months, are 'beginning to bite' as lenders turn down more than 77,000 applicants a month. Around 463,000 people had mortgage applications rejected in the six months to mid March covered by the MoneyExpert.com research and applicants aged between 18 and 34 were the worst affected.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:25 AM 9 Comments

House prices fell - and this was a surprise for the BBC!

BBC "News": Slight fall in UK property prices

The unquantifiable 0.1% rears it's head again. Still, I suppose it's better than the BBC's usual trick of trumpeting a 0.1% rise as "strong gains".

Posted by paul @ 10:39 AM 0 Comments

Don't fear the repo man!?

BBC News: Repossessions rise again in 2006

The number of properties repossessed by lenders has continued to rise sharply, up 9% in the second half of 2006.

Posted by nearly30 @ 10:32 AM 9 Comments

Great news!

BBC: UK house prices in surprise fall

UK house prices fell 0.1% between January and February, says the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG). The government's official house price index, published by the DCLG, said the average home cost 205,102 in February, down from 205,339 in January. Year-on-year though, UK house prices were 12.1% higher, the DCLG added. The DCLG result differs from recent Halifax and Nationwide surveys which have shown house prices rising sharply.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 10:22 AM 0 Comments

Buy a house in London and quit your job!

Summing up the problem - Now the RICH are getting worried!

Times: Life is no party for "20-20" generation

When the rich start to complain, one may be sure that the poor are already suffering. The rich, particularly in London, are starting to complain about their children. It is not that they are growing up to be feckless layabouts who will not settle down to a real job of work. It is rather that they are serious young people, who have been to university, and are looking for a job that will have some social utility and provide them with a comfortable salary on which to bring up their own children.

Posted by matt @ 10:03 AM 0 Comments

Watch the US for future inflation prospects

The Telegraph: Bank can learn from Fed's handling of core inflation

The US has rising core CPI (Excluding energy and food) with a slowing housing market and economy
The UK housing market and economy are doing well so future inflation should go higher than the US

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:49 AM 2 Comments

Rightmove show stunning price rises over past month

Firstrung: House prices up 8,000, (3.6%) in March - Rightmove

Britain's housing market continues to defy gravity, with Rightmove reporting that house prices in the past month (March) have shown their biggest increase for five years.... Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove: "Sellers' asking prices provide one of the earliest indicators of which way the market is headed, and while a boost is to be expected around Easter, 8,000 in a month is the largest amount we have ever recorded. Every region saw large increases, with the minimum jump being 3,000."

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:42 AM 17 Comments

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Scottish view of HPC sees it happening but not just yet

Scotsman: Soaring house prices coming to the crunch

A something for everyone article containing the usual spread of statistics and views that comcludes that as long as employment remains robust it is hard to see the housing market plunging. The article fails to take into account the fall in value of take home pay and assumes that for a large majority of prospective buyers, house prices remain affordable - otherwise mortgage business would not be rising at the pace it is!

Posted by enuii @ 07:54 PM 0 Comments

Watch how this contagion pans out........

TimesOnline: Profit warnings surge

"The last time there were 100 warnings in the first three months of a year was back in 2001."
What was happening in 2001? Oh yes, the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) meltdown.

Posted by lvmreader @ 03:44 PM 2 Comments

Losses in Liverpool present a disappointment for the nation's largest landlord

TimesOnline: Liverpool dents dukes legacy

Passed down through more than 300 years of family ownership, the estate, now under the stewardship of Gerald Cavendish Grosvenor, the sixth to bear the title of duke since it was created in 1874, encompasses 200 acres of prime property in Belgravia, 100 acres in Mayfair and a sizeable tranche of Oxford Street. Stretching from the plush Lanesborough hotel to Bond Street bou-tiques the duke and his family own it all. The empire doesnt stop there: the dukes private property company, Grosvenor, has tentacles that spread across the globe, with more than 11 billion of assets under management stretching from Brisbane to Shanghai to San Francisco.

Posted by lvmreader @ 02:39 PM 0 Comments

A quick snapshot of news for the week just gone

Firstrung: Firstrung, has the spring bounce bounced? The week in focus - 15/04/07

Overall the past week was relatively quiet for property related news, presumably due to the first Bank Holiday weekend of 2007 which traditionally spells activity for estate agents. Or does it? The Firstrung team suggest it's an urban myth. Looking at the available house sales statistics (from Land Registry) sales are fairly even for nine-ten months of the year and have been for a number of years. The main news story of the week was undoubtedly key worker/first time buyer affordability, which 'dovetailed' with plenty of comment from the national media including the BBC which dedicated a proportion of the 24 hour rolling news service to 'dipping in and out' of the subject of first time buyers and house price inflation.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:55 PM 0 Comments

interest rates have yet to peak.

The Telegraph: Is buy-to-let primed for a fall?

"A buy-to-let mortgage is not that dissimilar from a private equity buy-out," says Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist at Brewin Dolphin Securities. "Both are leveraged instruments. With any leveraged deal, if your income is not covering the cost of the debt taken on, then that's clearly not a good position to be in. If interest rates rise, the situation gets worse. It all comes down to cashflow. And the message coming out from central banks all over the world appears to be that interest rates have yet to peak."

Posted by cheeky charlie @ 11:38 AM 4 Comments

It's official: the 10x salary mortgage is here!

Times: Borrowers offered 10 times salary

Verbatim from the Sunday Times: "Wealthy borrowers are being offered super size mortgages of nearly 10 times... The reason for this increased generosity is that a growing number of mortgage providers now base their lending decisions on affordability... The other option is to go for a self-certification mortgage. This is where you state your salary without having to prove it." In the article, the US-style "liar mortgages" are called "self-cert"... but "things are different here" or at least have different names!

Posted by confused76 @ 12:35 AM 14 Comments

Saturday, April 14, 2007

HPC moving in West to East

icwales.co.uk: House prices in Wales stagnate

Latest figures show Welsh house prices stopped rising in March. Statistics from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors show first-time buyer inquiries fell for the second month running.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 11:19 PM 0 Comments

Sales of Big Ticket items fall as Joe Public feels the Pinch

Times Online: High cost of living keeps old sofas in situ

Plenty of spin being used to shrug off the obvious, the decline started over Xmas, continued into the New Year with a 34% slump over previous years and now the weather is being blamed! People who can't afford a new sofa quite obviously can't afford to climb the so called property ladder. The economy is maxxed out on debt, maxxed out on tax, maxxed out on bills and there is no spare finance capacity left to push the whole lot forward, as people back off spending the rest of the economy will follow and it will hit the retail and housing sectors first. I said in January that it would take till Easter for the evidence of a downturn to start mounting, there should be some more interesting stats coming out in the next few weeks but they will be played down.

Posted by enuii @ 09:16 PM 9 Comments

BTLers feel the pinch

LandlordExpert: The Landlord Association calls for the government to take action to protect landlords

"[A BTLer said:] "When I add up the amount I have lost in unpaid rent it makes me sick. I am in a position now whereby I am better off selling my portfolio rather than offering myself up to unreliable tenants and more loss". He highlights a problem almost all landlords have faced or are facing currently." ... I am sooo sorry about these hard-working BTLers, but what do they worry about? they are in for the capital gains, sure not for the rent

Posted by confused76 @ 05:51 PM 8 Comments

BTLers set to benefit from IR rises!

Assetz: Rate rises - do landlords care?

"Perhaps driven by higher rental demand as first-time buyers increasingly feel that the slippery first rung of the property ladder is out of their reach as the rate rises start to bite at the cutting edge of the market. John Heron, managing director of Paragon Mortgages commented: "Llandlords' confidence is a good indicator of current conditions - they know that tenant demand is pushing rents and yields upwards and remain confident in the long-term." So it seems that when it comes to rate rises, buy-to-let investors may be cashing in, rather than pulling out."

Posted by confused76 @ 03:26 PM 6 Comments

Self Build - show how GB(H) how to avoid his VAT and Stamp Duty Tax

Times Online: Self-build to knock down your costs

How do you find your dream home, avoid stamp duty and sidestep VAT? Its simple: build your own house. More people are doing just that the number of self-builders rose by more than 5 per cent a year between 2001 and 2005, according to Datamonitor.

Posted by fahrenheit451 @ 12:03 PM 0 Comments

Long road ahead

Firstrung: House prices up 8.1% year on year 0.7% in March - Acadametrics/FT Index

The latest FT House Price Index, updated with the most recent monthly data from the Land Registry, shows that house prices rose by 0.7% in March and by 8.1% over the past 12 months We calculate the FT House Price Index, on a seasonally and mix adjusted basis, as follows: Average house price 217,076 Monthly change 0.7%+ Annual change 8.1%+..

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:56 AM 13 Comments

In your dreams you may be first time lucky .. Fat chance, I'll believe it when I see it.

Time Online: You may be first-time lucky

"First-time buyers are finding it increasingly difficult to get a foot on the first rung of the property ladder, but mortgage lenders are coming up with increasingly ingenious ways to give a much-needed boost to those who lack the income or deposit to make their dreams a reality." Hear we go Sub-Prime again, yeh and it going to be low start in another fancy-dress for the ball. And what happens when the "Offer" (or should I say "Trap") ends, you won't be able to switch to another lender because its 9x income and this idea will have been squashed, you'll be locked into a Standard Variable Rate with an extra 2 or 3% because u'r more than 4x income.

Posted by fahrenheit451 @ 11:48 AM 0 Comments

GB(H) knows how to get into your pocket, raise House Prices and slap on more tax

Times Onlilne: Stamp out this dangerous duty

"This is no great surprise when the value of property has soared by almost 200 per cent in the past ten years, but there is little reason to cheer this stratospheric leap in house prices because the only real winner is the Treasury." Hey ... why not change the Stamp Tax so that for the first 250k you only pay 1% and ONLY on the amount above that you pay 3%. Because most houses in the South of UK are MORE than 250k. Ok so you CAN say that the House (incl Fixtures) & Land is one price (subject to Stamp Duty) and then say that all Fittings, Planting and anything that is removable is an additional cost. But I heard that they were "Stamping" down on this get out. But it still seems theiving to tax the first 250k at 3% just because the overall price has gone up a bit.

Posted by fahrenheit451 @ 11:41 AM 0 Comments

Friday, April 13, 2007

Why would you pay the BTL landlords mortgage?

Firstrung: UK remains a low risk buy to let destination - Assetz

"As first time buyers are increasingly priced out of the market demand for rental properties is likely to rise, providing a strong basis for buy-to-let investment." Perhaps it's twisted logic on our part, if so please advise, but we're struggling with the concept that if you can't afford to buy with your own low rate first time buyer mortgage, you could afford to pay your buy to let landlords inflated interest only buy to let mortgage...

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:07 PM 9 Comments

OEA beginning to flex muscles

Firstrung: Estate agents have no excuse not to join the Ombudsman for Estate Agents scheme

There's no excuse for any residential estate agent in England and Wales not to belong to the Ombudsman for Estate Agents scheme and abide by its Government-approved Code of Practice... That's the view of Bill McClintock, chairman of OEA Ltd., as he unveiled an offer for all agents who have yet to sign up to the independent redress scheme. The Department for Trade and Industry announced at the beginning of March that the OEA had been appointed to provide the statutory redress brought in under the Housing Act 2004 and confirmed by the Home Information Pack (Redress Scheme) Order 2007.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:05 PM 1 Comments

Where is this all going to end???

Telegraph: Super-euro may spark a currency war while French battle the ECB

"This isn't about yields any more: the carry trade is driving everything," said Simon Derrick, currency chief at Bank of New York."What worries me is that this could lead to currency wars. China's reserves have reached $1.2 trillion (606bn), that's up $200bn since November. This could be the catalyst for conflict if handled badly,"

Posted by sovietuk @ 10:06 PM 4 Comments

Stormy Waters ahead

Telegraph: Dollar slide accelerates

The dollar's slide against most of the world's currencies gained pace today as dealers worried over the outlook for the US economy. Sterling and the euro are leading the charge against the embattled dollar, as interest rates are still expected to head higher in both Europe and the UK.

Posted by sovietuk @ 09:53 PM 1 Comments

Former Chief of CountryWide: "It will all end in tears"

Guardian Business: Countrywide boss has a dig at private equity

The outgoing chairman of Countrywide took a surprise parting shot at private equity after shareholders at his estate agency group approved a 1.05bn bid from US buyout firm Apollo Management.

He added: "If there's a market downturn in the western economies, a lot of these highly leveraged private equity buyers are going to find themselves in difficulty. I would hate to see it happen to Countrywide."

He said that in 1973, when the oil crisis precipitated a global economic recession, all the companies that went bust were over-borrowed and incorrectly financed. "It's all fine at the moment, but it will end in tears," he said.

Posted by lvmreader @ 06:49 PM 1 Comments

written last November - still applies today

Bull not bull: The Shorting Opportunity of a Lifetime

Will the DJ make it past the peak in Feb of 12786? Or does the bear start here?
I opened an IG Index spread betting account today
Bought a few "tester" Wall Street put options just to get the feel of how it all works - nothing too big though
Will be watching the DJ with great interest over the next week or so

The Economist said today about America....
"Come in number one, your time is up."
"Expect gloom aplenty about America's economic standing"

The USD is falling again today.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 03:52 PM 3 Comments

Spain cooling down

Bloomberg: Spain March Core Inflation Slowed for First Month in Three

Housing slowdown just starting to bite... There will be a big recession in Spain and Ireland and Portugal. While ECB rates rise the housing boom economies will implode.

Posted by financial planner @ 03:19 PM 1 Comments

9 X Salary!!! We must be days off a HPC!!!

Daily Mail: Mortgage that's 9 times salary

It's finally here - the countdown has begun. The sun is shining and the buyers are nowhere to be seen - hey lets tempt them out with a 9 X Salary mortgage - in your dreams!!!

Posted by nearly30 @ 03:08 PM 11 Comments

NuLabour's head is in sand over house prices - will Conservatives do better?

WebCameron: NuLabour's head is in sand over house prices - will Conservatives do better?

Our big chance to pin the Tory leader down on what exactly his party will do where Labour fears to tread. Head over to this URL and put a vote in, and let's see if he has the guts to say something more than usual shared ownership/affordable homes red herrings.

Posted by pricedout.org.uk @ 02:06 PM 8 Comments

Halifax report on key workers in full detail

Firstrung: Housing affordability continues to deteriorate for key workers across Great Britain - Halifax

New research from Halifax highlights the continued deterioration in housing affordability for key workers. The average house price was unaffordable for all five key worker occupations in 70% (363 out of 517) of towns across Great Britain in March 2007, up from 65% (338) of towns last year. Five years ago in March 2002, the average house price in only 36% (185) of towns was unaffordable for all key workers...

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:39 PM 1 Comments

Oil Price Rising because of Lack of Supply

Reuters: Oil pushes above $64 on U.S. gasoline supply worry

Rising oil prices? No problem! Repeat after me: "There is no inflation in the US or Europe".

Posted by royston @ 12:08 PM 15 Comments

House price rises slow

Financial Times: House price rises show signs of slowing

"The London housing market continues to display considerable vigour but price rises in much of the country are more subdued, the latest FT house price index shows."

Posted by royston @ 12:01 PM 1 Comments

Are house prices too high?

BBC: Are house prices too high?

Are you a key worker or a first-time buyer trying to get on the property ladder? What needs to be done to help you? If you are a home owner, are you worried about interest rate rises or a market crash?

Posted by david21 @ 11:43 AM 12 Comments

Nurses cannot afford a house, so what?

Independent: Nurses 'can't afford houses in 99 per cent of UK towns'

Tim Crawford, group economist at Halifax, said: "Housing affordability continues to deteriorate... and it is now clearly not a problem confined to the south of England. Nurses face the most difficulties climbing on to the housing ladder but all key worker occupations are likely to struggle." He added: "The Government's key worker schemes are providing some relief but given recent trends there would be benefits in broadening their reach" What!? If you give subsidies prices go even higher!!! Maybe we should build more houses... shouldn't we??

Posted by confused76 @ 11:28 AM 21 Comments

As if we didn't know

BBC News: Property woe for public workers

Public sector workers such as teachers, nurses, police and firefighters cannot afford to buy homes in seven out of 10 UK towns, the Halifax bank has said.

Posted by disillusioned @ 10:23 AM 0 Comments

Help, help my house has been raped!

BBC "News": Web revellers wreck family home

"Whoever has come in here are worse than animals, it's like house rape" said the 48 year old mother from Houghton-le-Spring, County Durham. Isn't there an episode of Harry Enfield with Kevin and Perry where this happens?

Posted by paul @ 09:39 AM 0 Comments

Come on BoE - you can't ignore inflation any longer!

Reuters: Pay deals rise in three months

Pay deals picked up in the three months to the end of March, and signs indicate higher wage growth will likely be sustained next month.

Posted by bricksnmortarhaha @ 08:55 AM 0 Comments

WOW! a mentinon from the BBC

BBC: What will happen next to house prices?

Whether the UK housing market booms or goes bust is as about as hot a conversation topic as you can get. !In the past ten years a global bubble in house prices has developed and it is now bursting," Jonathan Davis, a certified financial planner and spokesman for website housepricecrash.co.uk, said.

Posted by george monsoon @ 08:26 AM 16 Comments

Frenchman's lot is not a happy lot

telegraph: Super-euro may spark a currency war while French battle the ECB

The euro has reached an all-time high against the yen and surged to $1.35 against the dollar, setting the stage for a battle between French politicians and the European Central Bank for control of the currency. Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB's president, gave a virtual guarantee that interest rates would be raised again to 4pc in June, narrowing the yield gap with the US. "I would not say today anything aimed at changing expectations for the month of June," he said.

Posted by acetip @ 03:17 AM 1 Comments

Thursday, April 12, 2007

A Wine Price Crash?

Times: Cheeky little red that costs 5,000 prompts call for a wine-price cap

I am losing hope we will see a HPC in London... lets hope at least for a WPC :))

Posted by confused76 @ 05:33 PM 2 Comments

I blame the baby boomers - for everything

Telegraph: I blame the baby boomers - for everything

I know it's difficult to get on the property ladder, but you could always try living in squalor for a bit with some friends while you save up - I mean, for goodness sake, it'll at least give you something to tell the grandkids - or take out one of those mortgages that is a trillion times your salary. But you won't do that, because it would be too hard, wouldn't it?

Posted by david21 @ 03:37 PM 8 Comments

House price growth picks up unexpectedly

Yahoo: House price growth picks up unexpectedly

House price inflation unexpectedly picked up in March after four months of easing, a survey showed on Thursday, suggesting higher interest rates may have failed to cool the market yet.

Posted by sonic @ 03:07 PM 2 Comments

House prices bounce back as market absorbs first round of interest rate rises - RICS

Firstrung: House prices bounce back as market absorbs first round of interest rate rises - RICS

House prices bounced back as the market absorbed the first round of interest rate rises, says RICS' UK housing market survey published today (12 April 2007)...

Posted by sonic @ 02:00 PM 0 Comments

House prices bounce back

AWD: House prices bounce back

House prices bounced back in March as the market absorbed the latest round of interest rate rises

Posted by sonic @ 01:59 PM 0 Comments

What's that quote; "a long term investment is a short one gone bad"?

Firstrung: Buy to let investors are "in it for the long term"

Buy to Let investors borrow an average of 73% of the purchase price for their property investments, while a sizeable minority, one in eight, borrow less than half. Over 40% of these investors buy properties that are over 50 years old and less than a fifth buy new build. On average, investors expect to keep their properties for nearly 17 years...

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:53 PM 7 Comments

House prices accelerate

Telegraph: House prices accelerate

The housing market has given the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King more to think about, with the latest survey showing prices rose at a faster pace in March.

Posted by sonic @ 01:36 PM 4 Comments

"Astonishing" house price increases in London hotspots

real estate: "Astonishing" house price increases in London hotspots

This monthly increase means an annual growth rate of 32 per cent, the estate agent claims.

Posted by sonic @ 01:32 PM 0 Comments

You couldn't make it up

Firstrung: First-time buyers are struggling with confidence rather than affordability

Erm...we're not sure where to begin with these comments from HML, apparently affordability is not an issue for first time buyers, they just need confidence...I think we'll leave it there... Mark Smith, managing director of mortgage processing company Homeloan Management: "The CML points out that record numbers of first-time buyers are taking fixed rate loans, but what is more worrying is that there are fewer first-time buyers than there have been for almost two years.

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:26 PM 7 Comments

Another article about the Datamonitor report

The Scotsman: Boom-and-bust warning as house prices soar 15%

... what's interesting is the comments of the readers on the Scotsman website. Most of them sound pretty cynical about the housing market.

Posted by scunnered @ 12:58 PM 2 Comments

Runaway train!

Guardian: Report fears boom and bust housing market

Fears that the housing market could return to a cycle of boom and bust should not be treated lightly, a report claimed today, as surveyors said house prices had risen for the 17th consecutive month. They're getting worried now - a ten year slump will finish off half their industry!

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 11:17 AM 16 Comments

What's that hissing noise ...

home.co.uk: London Soars Whilst Some Regions Suffer

... coming from the North ? ... Without the benefit of capital gains to make up for the shortfall in rental payments versus interest payments, considerable numbers of Buy-to-Let investors in the northern property markets will have difficulty turning a profit this year and may choose to release their properties onto the market.

Posted by doomwatch @ 11:16 AM 4 Comments

Datamonitor is worried about housing crash

Reuters: Bust on the cards for the housing market?

Datamonitor report of the UK housing market says... "Such buoyant housing activity cannot be sustained in the long-term and, undoubtedly, house prices cannot keep going up forever. The mortgage market stalled in 2005, and house price growth slowed significantly, suggesting the market was heading for a soft landing. But strong performance in 2006 and almost double-digit house price inflation have renewed fears of a housing crash"

Posted by confused76 @ 11:06 AM 8 Comments

The word bust being used in the media

Guardian: Surveyors Fear Boom & Bust

Fears that the housing market could return to a cycle of boom and bust should not be treated lightly, a report claimed today, as surveyors said house prices had risen for the 17th consecutive month. (Note, posting this at 11.00am; by the time the Censor board pass it I expect it will be early eve and several other people will have posted it already.........)

Posted by wsn03 @ 10:58 AM 0 Comments

Please don't sell any more Dollars!!!

BBC: Inflation is Fed's 'top concern'

The US Federal Reserve sees inflation as the "predominant concern" for the US economy, minutes from its latest rate-setting meeting have shown.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:32 AM 2 Comments

When every last bear turns bull

bestinvest: GARTMORE US BEAR

When can we say that every last bear has turned bull????
When the fund size of a bear fund is only 5.24m
It's hardly worth keeping open - unless they are expecting a rise in applications soon
I think this one might get some of this years ISA allowance

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:29 AM 0 Comments

Are Chinese stocks about to sell off?

Safe Haven: "Special" China Update

Are Chinese and world stocks about to sell off?
Will it be another correction or the resumption of the secular bear that started in 2000?
When will the markets realise that the US is heading for recession?

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:20 AM 10 Comments

Housing market in "rude health" say RICS

BBC: House prices rising say surveyors

The housing market is in "rude health" state the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors. Enquiries from new buyers fell again but at a slower pace. My guess is that new buyers declining at a slower rate is due that most new buyers cannot buy and there are very few people to add to that group as theyr'e maxed out already.

Posted by denzil @ 09:57 AM 11 Comments

Lombard believes UK is heading for crash

Daily Mail: Property Prices on Verge of Crash

Article telling us what we all believe.

Posted by j tallis @ 09:35 AM 0 Comments

Want a Guaranteed Way to Make Money?

BBC News: NI house prices top UK for speed

Property in Northern Ireland is the fastest growing in the UK. This is a guaranteed way isn't it? I mean, prices rise fast. Investors see that and more of them invest. Then prices rise even faster. Then even more investors invest. Eventually prices rise so fast that even the most stubborn bears throw in the towel and invest. How could it go wrong???? Come on, everybody! Let's join the Belfast Boom!

Posted by royston @ 09:30 AM 3 Comments

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Pro's & Con's of Equity Withdrawal

BBC News: Using your house as a wallet

Article from the BBC on the benefits and risks of equity withdrawal, the articles structure heavily biases it towards continued borrowing arguing that responsible lenders will have a vigorous screening process in place, credit-scoring all customers to ensure that they do not lend to people who cannot comfortably afford the repayments.

Posted by enuii @ 11:20 PM 3 Comments

BTL going strong but are yields falling?

Find.co.uk: Buy-to-let: landlords plan future, but will they yield to gravity?

What's bad for the goose, can be good for the gander - or so it would appear. Take the first time buyer. This once common animal, that used to grace the plains of new housing developments, seems to be following the polar bear onto the extinct list. But, while the newcomers to the world of property ownership fret over how they can possibly raise the deposit, the buy-to-let landlord bails them out, or so suggests mortgage lender Paragon.

Posted by ash4781 @ 07:41 PM 0 Comments

A minute's Silence Please... fnrrr!

Evening Standard: Bankers' bloodbath as Canary Wharf cull sees up to 1,000 lose their jobs

Up to 1,000 bankers paid between 100,000 and 1 million are to lose their jobs at Canary Wharf. It is part of a worldwide cull ordered at Citigroup, the world's biggest bank. None of the 9,000 staff based in London know yet who will be sacked.

Posted by pendulum @ 07:41 PM 12 Comments

This is also the front page of the evening standard

this is london: Bankers' bloodbath as Canary Wharf cull sees up to 1,000 lose their jobs

Up to 1,000 bankers paid between 100,000 and 1 million are to lose their jobs at Canary Wharf. It is part of a worldwide cull ordered at Citigroup, the world's biggest bank. None of the 9,000 staff based in London know yet who will be sacked. Senior managers have been told to go through records and axe the poorest performers. Staff will learn within weeks whether they are to be paid off. Many of the losses will be in managerial roles with the investment bank and wealth management arms among those taking the biggest hits. Backroom staff will also be affected.

Posted by nevajism @ 06:58 PM 1 Comments

House market and young generations

BBC Radio 1: Struggling to buy a house?

Better than a thousand editorials in The Economist... read for yourself the desperation of young people trying to start a family and their careers and who cant afford a roof! Also the few lucky(!) that are "on the ladder" are not happy at all... c*@ppy flats, huge mortgage payments, soaring utilities and taxes... but how can the economy "do so well" and people feel so bad about it?

Posted by confused76 @ 06:56 PM 4 Comments

Who'd have thought it!

Guardian: Hazy outlook hits 'sub-prime' mortgage firm

Shares in Kensington Group fell 4% this morning after the specialist mortgage company admitted that it is unable to predict its profits for this year.

Posted by inbreda @ 02:20 PM 9 Comments

No end to rising house prices

Hot Property: No end to rising house prices

The UK Property market looks set to remain strong, a leading property expert said today. John Wriglesworth, founder of the Wriglesworth Consultancy, said that he can see no end to rising House prices in the foreseeable future.

Posted by sonic @ 12:56 PM 12 Comments

Discussion on the effect of the Housing Market on the UK Economy/BTL etc.

BBC News: Economic Froth

Im getting a little worried that the UK economy has overheated a bit and is getting frothy. Should I be? What has worried me most is the behaviour observed in the property market in general, and the buy-to-let market in particular. As it is not possible for house prices to meet that kind of expectation sustainably, (the long term record is for property prices to rise about 3% ahead of inflation), I can only assume many of these investors are going to be disappointed at some stage.

Posted by scumbag @ 12:38 PM 0 Comments

ONS latest report

Firstrung: Changing lives of todays children - ONS social trends

It's a crying shame that the mainstream media will concentrate on 'Mummy's Boy' headlines rather than examining this study in more detail. There are some stark stats on display, particularly in relation to housing. Editors using the ONS stats could have concentrated on this stark fact: Developers have either chosen, or been forced to build mainly two bed apartments on reclaimed brownfield sites at record prices...not quite the headline grabber is it...

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:25 PM 2 Comments

Why did FTB numbers collapse in the first 2 months of 2005?

Firstrung: First time buyer numbers down on 2006 but in 2005 the devil was in the detail

Well who'd have thought it eh? First time buyers at their lowest levels for two years according to the CML. We avoided this jaw dropping/attention grabbing headline today in the main news sections of the Firstrung site for two main reasons...

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:23 PM 5 Comments

More Bad News & its heading to a town near youi soon

washingtonpost.com: Housing Boom Tied To Sham Mortgages

Many experts have concluded that the nation's real estate boom of recent years was fueled in part by weakened lending standards that sparked excessive demand and drove up prices. Now, some are worried that the looser standards may have permitted a boom of another kind -- a big expansion of mortgage fraud. No one knows exactly how extensive the crime has become, but new data from the federal government suggest that it has jumped tenfold since 2000. Prosecutors are finding cases all over the country in which sham transactions, based on fraudulent appraisals, led to homes changing hands at far above their real value. Mortgage lenders failed to carry out the most elementary safeguards.

Posted by acetip @ 12:16 PM 1 Comments

Ireland's house prices could be facing a tumble downwards

The Irish Post: Stalled house prices leading to crash fears

HOUSE prices in Ireland could soon come crashing down - echoing similar fears in Britain. Irish house prices showed no growth in February which fuelled speculation the country's long-running property boom may be over. According to the latest survey by permanent tsb and the Economic And Social Research Institute (ESRI), the year-on-year rate of growth in February for prices nationally was 9.5 per cent - down from 10.6 per cent recorded in the 12 months to January.

Posted by stew @ 12:10 PM 0 Comments

Post-boom conditions have put buyers in the drving seat

JSOnline: House buyers driving discounts

In Milwaukee, buyers are now unafraid to offer 10% to 20% lower than the asking price for property - even more if the property is in danger of foreclosure and a purchase will save the original owners' equity. An upturn is predicted within a year. So soon?

Posted by disillusioned @ 11:36 AM 0 Comments

Reuters claim that London property demand is even greater.

Reuters: London house price growth hits 32 percent

I have some questions: When will we see London prices fall? Will they follow or precede the rest of the country? What is the course of events of a crash and recession? How long will it take before property investment is a good idea again?

Posted by disillusioned @ 11:20 AM 4 Comments

Demand and supply are responding to price

Bloomberg: Britons Stay at Home Longer as House-Price Gains Outpace Pay

Demand: Britons are living with their parents for longer than they used to as gains in house prices make it less affordable for them to buy a place of their own, a report shows. Supply: more intensive building, today's report showed. The number of new dwellings per hectare in the capital rose to 110 from 48, while the average for the country was an increase to 40 dwellings from 24... More new properties in England are being built on already- developed land... new homes are getting smaller. Forty-two percent of new homes built have two bedrooms, while 25 percent have four or more bedrooms

Posted by confused76 @ 09:15 AM 3 Comments

Estate agents statistics

Bloomberg: Britons Stay at Home Longer as House-Price Gains Outpace Pay

I wonder how Bloomberg can report such biased information based on very questionable statistics... "The average price of a luxury house in Knight Frank's monthly index is now almost 5 million pounds ($10 million), with apartments costing 2.5 million pounds"

Posted by confused76 @ 09:07 AM 1 Comments

6 X Pain!!

Telegraph: Mortgages on offer for six times salary

Lenders are offering mortgages equal to six times salary to first-time buyers desperate to get a foot on the property ladder as house prices soar out of reach.

Posted by nearly30 @ 08:44 AM 36 Comments

Renting Vs. Buying in the US

New York Times: For Many, Renting Home Now Cheaper Than Buying

"... in a stark reversal, its now clear that people who chose renting over buying in the last two years made the right move. In much of the country, including large parts of the Northeast, California, Florida and the Southwest, recent home buyers have faced higher monthly costs than renters and have lost money on their investment in the meantime. Its almost as if they have thrown money away, an insult once reserved for renters." Interesting implications for Britain given that rental yields are lower in the UK than in the US and that mortgage interest is no longer tax sheltered in the UK. Article includes a great interactive graphic calculating the break even point for renting vs buying, though the assumptions are tailored for the US market.

Posted by richc @ 02:19 AM 1 Comments

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Would you Adam and Eve it? Even the BBC are (gently) raiseing doubts

BBC News: Head to head: Using your house as a wallet

House prices continue to rise briskly (don't you just love the BBC). And since the start of the decade, UK home owners have borrowed an astonishing 264bn against the rising value of their homes. But is this borrowing, known as mortgage equity withdrawal, a good thing? Two commentators argue the case: Julia Debt-i-more and David Kuo from Fool.co.uk.

Posted by harold @ 11:34 PM 5 Comments

Would you Adam and Eve it? Even the BBC are (gently) raising doubts

BBC News: Head to head: Using your house as a wallet

House prices continue to rise briskly (don't you just love the BBC). And since the start of the decade, UK home owners have borrowed an astonishing 264bn against the rising value of their homes. But is this borrowing, known as mortgage equity withdrawal, a good thing? Two commentators argue the case: Julia Debt-i-more and David Kuo from Fool.co.uk.

Posted by harold @ 11:34 PM 0 Comments

One can never avoid surprises, but some things should not be surprises......

MoneyWeek: Key threats to market stability

"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second, it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
- Arthur Schopenhauer
Credit spreads, the yield difference between the best quality bonds and the worst quality bonds, have widened a little; recently they were as narrow as they have ever been when J P Morgans High Yield Index was only 279 basis points above Treasuries. The increase so far has been to 323. At times of previous credit crunches, spreads have widened to 800, even 1000.

Posted by lvmreader @ 09:07 PM 0 Comments

Nothing to see here. Booming economy. Move on please

Telegraph.co.uk: Firms struggle to pay bills

Men occassionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry on as if nothing had happened.
-Winston Churchill

Posted by lvmreader @ 08:57 PM 1 Comments

The most expensive postcodes in the US - still a bargain compared to us

CNN Money: Big incomes, bigger houses

I used to live in Greenwich, Connecticut, in a 1,500 sq. ft. apartment overlooking Long Island sound. The postcode 06830 is one of the most exclusive in the USA and the median income (and trust me, median is almost as misleading as mean) was over $500,000 (GBP500,000 when using PPP (see comments)... ). e.g. My 33 year old boss had made USD5m 2years before and he lived in a 3,000 sq.ft apartment. Each apt cost far less / sq.ft than your average "house" in London. New England is realtively crowded for the USA. Yet they are in house price crash trouble. What awaits us here in Overpriced UK? (Hint JAPAN)

Posted by lvmreader @ 07:45 PM 1 Comments

Subprime? It's all subprime

NYTimes: Defaults Rise in Next Level of Mortgages

Another reminder to any folks who think that this is an isolated occurence in some faraway market, in some exotiuc asset class. Lending at multiples above 2.5 "income" will get you into this mess. In the US less than 30% of mortgages were ARM ("Interest Only") and at lower multiples than here. It's OVER, Ladies and Gentlemen. Completely Over. The wars being fought are indicative of our impending economic collapse.

Posted by lvmreader @ 07:37 PM 3 Comments

Confirmation the IMF sees big trouble ahead

Bloomberg: IMF Sees Small Chance of Disruption in U.S. Mortgage Market

All looks good and then proof it's all a lie: "It expressed confidence that the effects would be contained and said there were signs that the slumping U.S. housing market has started to stabilise." Any time you see the signs of housing stabilising in an article, you can pretty guarantee that whatever they're denying is going to happen! Would be good to know what signs they've seen...maybe it's the US home builders saying Spring hasn't arrived?

Posted by houseoflords @ 03:53 PM 0 Comments

even fewer FTBs. some choice quotes below.

Guardian Unlimited: Decline in number of first-time buyers

87% of first-time buyers chose mortgages with a fixed rate in February, but for how long? ----- Ed Stansfield, property economist at Capital Economics, said the fall in numbers of first-time buyers could mean that some of the heat is now coming out of the property market. "First-time buyer numbers have been gently drifting down. They do not have much of a choice - either stretch themselves with larger loans or sit out and wait for easier times. It is very tough at the moment. "This cannot be good for the long-term outlook for the market. It is another argument for expecting the market to get softer as the year goes on. The outlook for 2008 will be pretty soft."

Posted by sam @ 02:24 PM 9 Comments

Looks like the FSA are getting the jitters about UK subprime

BBC News: Sub-prime loans in the spotlight

The City watchdog is to investigate whether "sub-prime" mortgage borrowers with poor credit histories are being treated fairly by lenders.

Posted by mr cobblepot @ 12:57 PM 7 Comments

Greed is good...apparently

Firstrung: Buy to let landlords have on average eleven properties under management - Paragon

Figures from buy to let specialist mortgage provider Paragon Mortgages have revealed the number of properties in the average landlord's buy-to-let (BTL) portfolio has continued to rise...In November 2006, the average number of properties owned by a landlord stood at 10.2, a figure which rose by February to 11.1. In addition, the average portfolio value has risen 7 per cent in that time.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:40 PM 16 Comments

Repeat after them "Your house is a hole in the wall cash machine"

Firstrung: Massive mortgages and lack of savings the main reasons why Britons have little 'disposable wealth'

Can this be true? Apparently disposable income is now calculated by subtracting what you owe, (including that on your mortgage), from what your house is worth to come up with a final figure for disposable income. When did the equity in your home become disposable income...?

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:38 PM 7 Comments

One for the bears

Sunday Times: Is that all, folks?

Good to see the Times putting the other view forward at last.

Posted by davros @ 12:23 PM 0 Comments

The crash or at least slump is on its way.

Sunday Times on 8th April: Property experts say they see signs that soaraway house prices are heading for a fall.

London's booming at the momment. And there is an ever increasing number of 1m properties. BUT ... We are now clearly at the end of the house-price boom, says Diana Choyleva, a director. We think there will be a correction next year. Although it is unlikely to be as severe as the last crash, 2008 could be a difficult year.

Posted by fahrenheit451 @ 11:24 AM 0 Comments

Irish Bank launches sub-prime lending service

RTE news: IL&P sets up new loans company

Irish banks are moving into the sub-prime debt business? now???? That's like deciding to fit a turbo-changer to the engines of the Titanic - after she struck the iceberg!

Posted by royston @ 10:38 AM 9 Comments

Its going to be big...VERY BIG

Daily Express: UK FACES 459BN HOUSING CRASH

THE BUBBLE is about to burst on Britains booming property market. Experts fear a crash is coming that could wipe at least 450billion off the value of the countrys housing stock.

Posted by mr cobblepot @ 10:34 AM 5 Comments

Financial Armageddon

news with views: OUR "STRONG ECONOMY:" A POWDER KEG WAITING TO BLOW

A bit gloomy.
The US is spending 2.5 billion a day of money they don't have

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:00 AM 1 Comments

The last king of Scotland?

Scotland on Sunday: Brown must apologise for role in wrecking pensions

"The 'great pensions heist' may be last week's news, but this story won't go away. Pensions will never disappear from our headlines while more people retire on inadequate pensions. The ignominious role played by Brown will not be forgotten." ... but we have the housing market, dont we?... why to worry?

Posted by confused76 @ 09:49 AM 4 Comments

Spread betting on the house market

Telegraph: House price fears fuel bets on market

Simon Smith of Cantor Spreadfair said some people are "going short" to hedge themselves against a drop in the value of their own property

Posted by confused76 @ 09:36 AM 3 Comments

Monday, April 9, 2007

HPI spreads across the solar system

BBC News: Making a mint out of the Moon

Sadly I missed the programme in question. But, it looks like HPI has expanded beyond this world. I'm just waiting for this chap telling us all how the moon is different, and lunar property prices can only go up, and the transport links are improving all the time (only 230,000 miles to the city afterall). After all, there not making moons anymore? Don't worry if you are priced out of the moon, you can always buy something on up-and-coming Mars....

Posted by disgustedofyork @ 11:45 PM 3 Comments

unbelievable appartment offer

own experience: appartment prices fall in Leeds 17

Last month I was offered a part share in the purchase of twelve luxury appartments on one of the best streets in affluent North Leeds LS17 discounted from circa 300k each to about 215k each. I asked why such a discount to hear an investor had lost his initial investment because he was unable to raise the required mortgage for personal reasons and thus the builder was now looking for a swift disposal at the discount rate. The Banks valuation came in at 309 pounds psq ft at approx 1000 sq ft each the figures add up hence 300k each value, but the rental valuation only came in at 900 pounds per month, hence there is to be a hefty monthly shortfall if expecting these properties to wash their own faces i.e min 1,500 pounds per month re-payment per month based on 6% interest only.

Posted by cyprus investor @ 06:56 PM 2 Comments

sub-prime goes prime

Bloomberg News: Original News Article

this article says that a big u.s. lender is suffering. it's the first time subprime has gone ``prime'' over there. over here, the council of mortgage lenders can harp on all it likes about stronger underwriting, but go through the newspapers. how many jobs do you see paying over 30 grand? hardly any. so how come property prices are typically ten times that? and what do we ACTUALLY DO? nuffink! this could be the start of international contagion, at least that's what i'm hoping for.

Posted by bangybongo @ 06:01 PM 0 Comments

Roll up! Roll up! studios for 200K in E.London

Firstrung: London 'Brownfield' site has been regenerated into a collection of 51 newly built studio, one and two bedroom apartments

Don't all rush out at once; We received this press release last week, on first inspection this should press all the buttons for first time buyers; brownfield site, an area of London experiencing re-development, aimed at entry level housing..and then we get to the prices, entry level starts at 200K for a studio apartment...

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:48 PM 8 Comments

Sign that boom will continue this summer

Alexa: HPC traffic at 1 year low

As we enter the final 9-12 months of the boom - the website traffic for HPC.co.uk moves to a 1 year low
This is no surprise as we saw 2 long term bloggers bail last week
I think the MPC decision last week will ensure the boom contimues through the summer months.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:47 PM 17 Comments

Smith sees Irish house prices just flattening

Economics UK: Is the house party coming to an end?

Post your views.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:41 PM 2 Comments

B*stards!

Observer: Mass viewings push up house prices

Estate agents are using a stressful sales tactic as a shortage of homes brings buyer paranoia.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:42 AM 10 Comments

Commercial property Bellwether

Telegraph: Those who piled into commercial property risk a shock

Last week I commented on the state of the residential property market here compared with the travails of its equivalent in America. This week I turn to the other side of that market - the commercial. And here I have no need of transatlantic comparisons. The key question can be simply put: is the UK commercial property market a bubble waiting to burst?

Posted by ash4781 @ 08:42 AM 0 Comments

People are starting to panic

The Guardian: Britain is not the US, so don't panic - yet

Judging from the post bag I received when I wrote about the crisis in the US sub-prime mortgage market a couple of weeks back, there are plenty of people anxious that the same problems may be visited on the more vulnerable borrowers here. After all, lenders here have wooed first-time buyers with low introductory offers, just as they have across the Atlantic, and there has been an increase in self-certification for those with irregular income, so that in exchange for a slightly higher interest rate the lender does not carry out the usual checks to see whether the borrower can keep up regular monthly payments

Posted by cash_buyer @ 08:23 AM 4 Comments

What will this do to the so called

thisisstaffordshire.co.uk: Rush to sell homes before cost goes up

Estate agents are predicting a six-week stampede to sell houses, beginning this weekend, as anxious owners try to avoid paying for the controversial new Home Information Pack.The Easter weekend traditionally kicks off the house-hunting season, but experts say the market is being driven artificially because anyone selling a property after June 1 will have to provide prospective buyers with a Home Information Pack (HIP). The looming deadline, coupled with the Bank of England's decision on Thursday to keep interest rates pegged at 5.25 per cent, has prompted fears that the market will be flooded in the short term.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 08:19 AM 0 Comments

market woes spread further than subprime...surprise surprise....UK next?

housingwire.com: market woes move to alt-a

American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (NYSE: AHM), a large Alt-A mortgage lender, said Friday afternoon that it expects lower income in the first quarter and full year 2007 than previously forecasted, due to conditions in the secondary mortgage and mortgage-backed securities markets. The announcement comes ahead of the companys first quarter results, which are set to be released April 30. During March, conditions in the secondary mortgage and mortgage securities markets changed sharply, said Michael Strauss, American Homes chairman and CEO.

Posted by taffee @ 08:13 AM 1 Comments

Sunday, April 8, 2007

Property tycoon's BTL empire falling apart

Daily Telegraph: 'King of Belgravia' in mortgages struggle

One of Britain's biggest buy-to-let property investors is struggling to hold together his 100m London property empire under pressure from several household mortgage lenders. The tycoon owns about 200 -luxury houses and flats in the capital's most exclusive districts including Kensington and Chelsea, -Notting Hill and Earl's Court, plus properties further out on the fringes of the M25.

Posted by little professor @ 07:14 PM 8 Comments

London market goes mad

Observer: Mass viewings push up house prices

Estate agents are using a stressful sales tactic as a shortage of homes brings buyer paranoia. In place of conventional, estate agent-guided tours of properties, agents are encouraging vendors to open their doors for just one hour and invite potential buyers to view their home en masse. Such 'mass viewings' are creating an atmosphere of panic among homebuyers. An estate agent says: "'We have found en masse viewings create a competitive spirit between buyers and so considerably maximise offers. Offers come flooding in within hours".

Posted by drewster @ 02:15 PM 0 Comments

More than half of voters say Brown is a bad chancellor

Sky News: Pension Row Batters Brown

Some telling stats from the YouGov poll for the Sunday Times found that more than half of voters (52%) now believe Gordon Brown has been a bad chancellor. Asked whether he was fit to be PM considering his involvement in the pension swindle only 27% said that he was while 57% said that he was not.

Posted by denzil @ 11:12 AM 4 Comments

Interest rates to rise ?

Sunday Telegraph: So much growth, so little spare capacity

The British economy is changing shape. For many years, we have relied on consumer spending - and borrowing - to generate growth. But there is increasing evidence that the corporate sector is our economic engine room, rather than the high street. Business investment is now driving growth instead

Posted by ash4781 @ 10:01 AM 0 Comments

HPC in today's Express

Express: UK faces 459bn housing crash

Nothing in this article is new, but interesting how the doubts about house market stability are reported in the popular press (459bn...!?). As soon as publishers realize that full-page HPC news sell more papers than stale, boring stories on property millionaires... In the article: "Analysts are concerned that the UK could be at the mercy of international financial forces beyond its control"... that sounds likely, with foreign investors having so much influence on the London house market and on the pound.

Posted by confused76 @ 09:54 AM 2 Comments

Smith's sees a soft landing with HP

The Sunday Times: Is the housing party coming to an end?

Nothing new here from him.

Make sure you post some replies on his blog
www.economicsuk.com

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:27 AM 7 Comments

Saturday, April 7, 2007

Economics 101

gold eagle: Sterling & Gold

"...The forex market hated the Bank of England's decision to keep Sterling interest rates on hold. But savers at home in the United Kingdom will come to hate it far more..."

Posted by blindleadtheblind @ 11:11 PM 0 Comments

Semi-Detached From Reality

speculativebubble.com: Real Estate Roller Coaster

US Home prices adjusted for inflation plotted as a roller coaster

Posted by templer @ 10:09 PM 1 Comments

Read and Weep - Blair, Falconer & Browns Pension Number

Telegraph.co.uk: Lib Dems ask Brown to sacrifice pension pot

How many BTL's would you need to furnish yourself with the sort of Pension you get for being the Chancellor, Lord Chancellor or PM for even 1 day. The minute Gordon sneaks into No10 he doubles his pension pot to a value of 3.6 million on the open market.

Posted by enuii @ 09:23 PM 2 Comments

Are buy to let investors winning their 'war of attrition'?

Firstrung: London rental market soars on back of city boom - Foxtons

London's rental market is starting to keep pace with sales, as demand for property in the capital continues to soar, according to key indicators published by Foxtons, London's leading estate agent...Since January, Foxtons have had 20% more applicants for rented property than this time last year. This demand is leading to rent rises and an increase in renewals.

Posted by converted lurker @ 07:42 PM 4 Comments

Treasury benefits most from house price rises

Firstrung: Inheritance tax will affect one in four estates due to house price rises

9.4 million homeowners could be 'caught' by inheritance tax despite a rise in the level at which it kicks in, it has been claimed...Research by Scottish Widows found that almost one in four households in the UK have an total estate valued at more than the new 300,000 threshold for death duty.

Posted by converted lurker @ 07:39 PM 0 Comments

Against all the odds House Prices March on!!!

Financial Times: UK factory output falls sharply

The last paragraph is telling ..... "In stark contrast, Britains housing market continued to flourish despite three interest rate rises since August. House prices rose 1.0 per cent in March, taking the annual three-month rate to a two-year high of 11.1 per cent, the Halifax house price survey showed."

Posted by auntie @ 03:33 PM 9 Comments

How the race to buy up land could affect house prices

Telegraph: Word on the street

Lombard Street Research, whose reputation on house-price forecasts in the past couple of years is second to none, warned that next year would see a correction in house prices. If this coincides with a sudden jump in the number of new homes, it could cause a sharper slowdown than many expect.

Posted by pendulum @ 08:30 AM 0 Comments

MEW your way to financial freedom!

Telegraph: Cash in your bricks and mortar

...Or is that eternal slavery? "This country is facing a pensions debacle. Final salary pension schemes continue to close, the performance of money purchase schemes is insufficient and the Government cannot keep supporting an ageing population. However, homeowners do have considerable property wealth and can use this to supplement their retirement income." That's alright then...

Posted by pendulum @ 08:27 AM 6 Comments

Next US IR move could be up

The Telegraph: US jobless decline knocks hopes of interest rate cut

Normally the markets sell off when US IR peak - as they expect a slowdown.
The Telegraph was predicting last October that the stock markets would fall 20%
This didn't happen - why - because maybe IR haven't peaked yet

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 07:26 AM 4 Comments

Next US IR move could be up

The Telegraph: US jobless decline knocks hopes of interest rate cut

Normally the markets sell off when US IR peak - as they expect a slowdown.
The Telegraph was predicting last October that the stock markets would fall 20%
This didn't happen - why - because maybe IR haven't peaked yet

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 07:26 AM 0 Comments

Friday, April 6, 2007

HPI Slowing down

Time Online: Halifax says house price rise is weakest in months

The fog surrounding the housing market lifted yesterday when a leading property survey showed the weakest rise in prices for eight months, making forecasts of a slow-down appear more certain. Halifax, the bank, reported that prices rose by just 1 per cent in March. That was the smallest increase since July, although prices also showed an outright fall of 0.9 per cent in December. The news went some way to bridging the gap between the mortgage lenders recent reports of soaring property costs and the downbeat forecasts of the Bank of England and many City analysts.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 07:11 PM 0 Comments

Prices in the Lakes on the verge of falling

The Cumberland News: Price of homes up just 0.1%

HOUSE prices in Cumbria rose again last month, according to latest figures. The Hometrack survey puts the average price of a home in the county at 128,100, up from 128,000 in February, an increase of 0.1 per cent. The average price in Carlisle was unchanged at 115,100. Nationally, Hometrack says, house prices rose by 0.8 per cent in March to an average of 173,400, taking the annual rate of growth to 6.7 per cent. However, most of the increase has been fuelled by rapidly-rising prices in London and the South East.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 07:08 PM 0 Comments

More bad news from the US

Independent: American dream ends in property market crash

Even now, the ads on television, radio and the internet continue: "Is your credit bad? Don't worry, we'll provide the loan for the home of your dreams ..." What those commercials should, but do not, add is: go through the small print with a toothcomb. Or else you, too, could be swept up in America's subprime mortgage crisis. Just as in Britain, homeownership is a traditional goal of American society. But as interest rates have climbed and the housing market has slumped, the number of what are politely called "delinquent" loans has soared. And as home repossessions grow, civil rights groups and presidential contenders alike are stepping into the row over the high risk, or subprime, mortgage market.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 07:04 PM 0 Comments

UK heading for Stagflation

Reuters: Economy grew 0.5 pct in first quarter

Economic growth is slowing in the UK. At the same time, wages and prices are rising. The reasons are simple - 1.) people need more money to buy a place to live and 2.) firms need to charge more to pay them more. However, this makes us less competitive against the far east. Thank you to the best Chancellor we ever had for this economic miracle!

Posted by royston @ 04:48 PM 0 Comments

BBC News bias set to rise with appointment of New Chairman

Telegraph: New BBC chief is another Brown crony

Ah well the brainwashing of the dumb masses looks set to continue Gordon Brown uses his position as "Prime Minister-inwaiting" to place his supporters in key posts after Sir Michael Lyons was appointed chairman of the BBC Trust.

Posted by enuii @ 02:44 PM 6 Comments

More Evidence of Snowballing US Wage Inflation

Bloomberg: U.S. March Payrolls Rise 180,000, Jobless Rate Drops

More people being hired at higher salaries. Fewer unemployed. .......But, it's OK.........because the US doesn't have an inflations problem! (....Yeah, right!...........keep taking the Blue pills.)

Posted by royston @ 02:04 PM 0 Comments

House price inflation breaks through 10% barrier

Guardian: House price inflation breaks through 10% barrier

Howard Archer, economist at Global Insight, said there was little evidence in the Halifax data to support the Bank of England's view that that house prices may be beginning to slow.

Posted by crash? @ 01:52 PM 0 Comments

House price growth hits two-year high

Reuters: House price growth hits two-year high

LONDON (Reuters) - House prices rose 1.0 percent in March, taking the annual three-month rate to a two-year high of 11.1 percent, a survey showed on Thursday, suggesting rising borrowing costs have yet to stifle demand.

Posted by crash? @ 01:51 PM 0 Comments

PROPERTY PRICES IN 60% LEAP

Express: PROPERTY PRICES IN 60% LEAP

BRITAINS property boom is seemingly unstoppable, new figures show today. House prices rose by almost 60 per cent in one area of the UK in the years first quarter, said the Nationwide building society.

Posted by crash? @ 01:49 PM 0 Comments

Earn 100K, take out a 500K mortgage? Er, no thanks.

Firstrung: Rise of the half million pound mortgage

"A young professional couple earning a joint income of 100,000 could certainly borrow enough - 500k is not unusual these days - to buy a very desirable property, but should their income drop for any reason things could fall apart very quickly," said Hearnden. "Some couples starting a family may take a career break or have to fund child care which could take a large slice of income. "The relentless rise of property values has led to lenders upping the amount they are prepared to offer to well-off borrowers who can prove they can manage the repayments,but people's lives change and they need to fully appreciate the level of financial risk these deals carry."

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:22 PM 0 Comments

Boomers not booming?

Firstrung: Pensioners struggle to make ends meet unless they withdraw equity from their homes

One in four people in, or nearing, retirement could be taking with them mortgage debts worth 98 billion collectively - an average of 31,000 per head - reveals a report from Key Retirement Solutions, the UK's largest independent equity release specialist.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:34 PM 0 Comments

Comparing the US and Euro House prices

CEPS: Bubbles in real estate?

A fantastic article written in Feb 2006.

The euro area aggregate index of real housing prices has risen almost as much as that of the US and is now (together with that of the US) about 40% above its 30-year average. This is almost exactly equal to the overvaluation of Japanese real estate at the height of the Japanese bubble, which was then followed by a decade of decline.

Over the last 30 years, the euro area index for real housing prices has tended to follow that of the US quite closely, but with a lag of about two years.

An ancillary finding is that the overvaluation (compared to a longer-term historical average) is even larger for the UK and Australia.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:14 AM 2 Comments

Soros: HPC will be global

CNBC: George Soros on Housing Prices June 2006

Televised interview with George Soros in June 2006. Sorry if this link has been posted already. I would not be surprised is Soros has recently made a mint short-selling subprime lenders and construction company stocks.

Posted by confused76 @ 11:09 AM 4 Comments

Lefties! - It's called MARKET FORCES!!!

BBC: Calls for end to US repossessions

A coalition of civil rights groups in the US has called on sub-prime lenders to stop repossessing borrowers' homes.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:40 AM 13 Comments

Everybody OUT!

BBC: Barclays sells sub-prime business

Barclays Bank has sold most of its Monument sub-prime credit card unit in an effort to cut its bad debts. US-based Compucredit bought the Monument business for 390m ($769m), about 100m less than its book value.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:38 AM 0 Comments

the great N. Ireland housing bubble!

BBC: House prices move higher in March

The Halifax figures also showed that the average price of a house in Northern Ireland has broken through the 200,000 barrier for the first time. This means that Northern Ireland is now one of the most expensive parts of the UK to buy property. This is quite a turnaround - two years ago Northern Ireland was the second cheapest part of the UK to buy a home. MADNESS!

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:28 AM 3 Comments

After yesterday's stitch-up, here's some good news!!!

Telegraph: A house costs less than a car in Detroit

The mortgage crisis in America has deepened so much that family homes can now be bought for less than 15,200 - the price of a new car. A four-bedroom home near the original Motown recording studio in Detroit recently sold for 3,700 ($7,000), less than most used cars. A boarded-up bungalow fetched 685, and a three-bedroom house listed for 276,000 attracted just 69,000.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 09:02 AM 1 Comments

Club Med and Ireland v Germany

The Telegraph: Rising euro nears danger level as politicians round on ECB

The euro is rising because it is the only serious alternative to the USD.
What happens when the club med countries and Ireland start to bail from the euro.
Just like when the UK bailed from the ERM in 1992, they will wait for their economies to be in a right mess before exiting.

The perfect storm will be starting in 2008
Stocks will be tumbling - everywhere
Property will be tumbling - everywhere
The USD and EUR will be tumbling
The carry trade would have imploded
There will be all sorts of currency crises going on

Where will all the money go?
Could it be gold???

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 06:06 AM 12 Comments

Thursday, April 5, 2007

Baby Boomers the UK's Golden Generation

Finance Daily: Baby Boomers Lucky On Pension Saving

Scottish Widows reveal that most over-50s realise that they are the lucky ones, as over half (58%) think it will be difficult for their adult children to build up a pension, and the same amount (60%) recognise the problems their children will have in building up any savings at all after their overinflated mortgage payments and cost of raising children.

Posted by enuii @ 10:44 PM 2 Comments

House prices down in Dublin

Fly2Let: Stamp duty worries hit Irish market

Impacts of ECB's rate rises have slowed down the RoI property market. Prices in Dublin are down 2.3% in the last quarter... but no worries here, the UK is different! And from the Irish Examiner: "The governor of the Central Bank, John Hurley, said: We continue to have the view that there will be a soft landing. House prices grew by 22% last year but few economists are expecting them to rise by more than single digits this year. Mortgage holders are likely to face another ECB interest rate rise in the next two months."

Posted by confused76 @ 07:01 PM 2 Comments

Recession is coming to the US

Yahoo: Fund issues dire equities warning

Blue Planet, a specialist investor in the financial sector with $350m of assets under management, operated three of the four best performing financial funds in the UK last year, according to figures from Bloomberg. Its Worldwide Financials fund was the best performing investment trust in the UK and the world over the last three years. About 25 per cent of Blue Planet's portfolios are now in cash.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 06:27 PM 1 Comments

Are the Russian Oilgarchs moving to Belfast?

Belfast Telegraph: 3m bid and still going strong

"Bidding on a Malone property has topped the 3m mark - and it's not sold yet! A 'for sale' board appeared outside the red brick Victorian house in Malone Park just over a week ago with an asking price of 2,250,000. And house-hunters eager to live in what is considered to be one of the most exclusive areas in Northern Ireland, had pushed the price up to 3,300,000 last night." More Northern Ireland property insanity. Only the other day a house in Alliance Avenue, the centre of Belfast's 'Murder Triangle' was on sale for 280,000 - staggering in itself, but it sold for 800,000. Think about that.

Posted by shipbuilder @ 01:29 PM 4 Comments

No Change!

BBC News: UK rates left unchanged at 5.25%

Pusillanimous B@st@rds!

Posted by royston @ 12:04 PM 46 Comments

Bugger! Looks like house prices are going to keep on rising!

bbc: Interest Rates left unchanged

Looks like no end in sight to house price inflations thanks to BOE!

Posted by j tallis @ 12:02 PM 6 Comments

Signs of cooling painfully slow

Firstrung: House prices increase by 1% in March - Halifax house price report

Commenting, Tim Crawford, group economist, said: "House prices rose by 1.0% in March, the second smallest monthly increase in prices since last August. Prices continue to rise in a tight market but there are emerging signs that pressure on householders' finances, partly due to the rise in interest rates since last summer, are dampening housing demand with evidence of reduced market activity.

Posted by converted lurker @ 10:50 AM 0 Comments

No news - but still important

IG Index: House Price Betting

I have nearly got the spread betting account set up with delta index for Irish house price betting. The UK firm I will open soon will be IG Index It offers regional HP betting which I think should be much easier to predict than national. They offer all their House Price bets for the next four quarters I am going to be monitoring the regional rental yields as this is the key to how much property is out of step. In the 1990 HPC, the UK market fell by 10% nationally, but 40% in East Anglia. Does anybody know where I can get good regional rental yield information from?

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 07:37 AM 7 Comments

The World Has Gone Mad - Too much money in circulation.

The Times Business: Man 102, takes out 25 year mortgage

Sorry if this one has been aired. I just couldnt believe it to be honest, after replying to a link where Dr K was talking about buying in Sussex i thought this was relevant. Is the guy honestly going to live long enough or are the lenders that sure they will get their money back come what may?

Posted by rimmer @ 05:30 AM 2 Comments

Too Little, Too Late?

BBC News: UK rates tipped to stay at 5.25%

Ludicrous vacillation over 1/4pt increase, when we need well-trumpeted full percentage point rises to prevent lunatics with credit cards and mortgage approvals from spending us into spiraling stagflation. MPC members, if you don't do what is necessary, we, the people, will hold you to account for your inaction!

Posted by royston @ 01:53 AM 15 Comments

Wednesday, April 4, 2007

Belfast the new London?

Belfast Telegraph: House prices shatter all records

Today, Belfast is the number one 'hottest regional city' in the UK with prices up 61% - average house price 262,965 - beating off places like Norwich, and the university cities of Oxford and Cambridge as well as Carlisle.

Posted by headmelter @ 10:47 PM 10 Comments

Credit rating agency warns on UK sub-prime

Crisis warning on UK home loans: Crisis warning on UK home loans

Homeowners were today given a chilling warning that a slowdown in the housing market could lead to a crisis in the sub-prime mortgage sector

Posted by ash4781 @ 09:20 PM 0 Comments

Domino effect on US economy from house market fall

Australian News: Excellent article on how House market will effect the overall economy

This is an excellent article on how the US house market will bring about the downfall of US economy. Similar will happen in UK soon. Already areas outside london have had 0 price growth. Will be couple of months when London will be in a similar downturn

Posted by rj @ 08:39 PM 1 Comments

Lendors say the US issues will not spread here but withour giving any solid reasons

Reuters: Replay of U.S. mortgage blues unlikely in Britain

LONDON (Reuters) - The crisis affecting the U.S. mortgage market has been a wake-up call for Britain's mortgage lenders but most are confident a similar storm will not occur this side of the Atlantic Not everyone is so sanguine. Capital Economics' Stansfield reckons that simply because the fault lines in Britain's mortgage market are different from those that triggered the U.S. crisis does not mean Britain is immune from further problems. While loan-to-value ratios are generally lower in Britain, he points out that lending as a proportion of income is actually higher.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 02:39 PM 4 Comments

The "goldmine" propaganda, again

DailyMail: Rising house prices leave families with a fortune in bricks and mortar

Just two days ago the Mail published an article "Property may slump next year"... now properties "leave families with a fortune"... I am lost! However, please read the reader comments - they signal a greater awareness of the downsides of this property craze

Posted by confused76 @ 01:44 PM 5 Comments

40% of estate agents 'noticed a downturn in activity'

24dash.com: 40% of estate agents 'noticed a downturn in activity'

A survey conducted by The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) revealed that a significant 40% of their members noticed a downturn in activity in the residential housing market as a direct response to the January interest rate rise. The NAEA is advising the Bank of England against increasing rates further in April. Peter Bolton King, Chief Executive of the NAEA, said: I urge the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to show caution when casting their votes on interest rates this Thursday. There remain vast regional differences across the UK in the housing market. It is imperative that rates remain level if we are to avoid the danger of slowing the market further in some areas.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 01:16 PM 4 Comments

Land Regsitry enters 21st century

Firstrung: Land Registry launches Chain Matrix Prototype- the easy way to view your property chain

House buyers and sellers across England and Wales are now able to view their chain electronically following the launch of Land Registry's new Chain Matrix system as a prototype in Bristol, Fareham and Portsmouth. The system is already proving successful with solicitors, conveyancers, estate agents and the public.

Posted by converted lurker @ 11:59 AM 0 Comments

Some parts of US are in real deep trouble.

Bloomberg: Detroit Home Sellers See Dearth of Buyers as Foreclosures Climb

If what's happening in Detroit is indicative of general scenario in US then the house market there is in real deep trouble. And then UK is bound to follow in the same way.

Posted by rj @ 11:58 AM 2 Comments

HPI has shifted the balance of assets held in the UK

Home.co.uk News: Where is Britains wealth?

In view of the potential for the UK housing market to go belly up, these figures are rather daunting. A drop in the property market of say 20% overall would cause a huge swing in the opposite direction.

Posted by tinecu @ 11:46 AM 2 Comments

US workers saddled with houses that wont sell

Christian Science Monitor: Us workers cant sell their houses

It seems as if the same thing is coming our way. Already in the US, houses have dropped in massive proprtions and it is effecting everybody across the country. Let Mervyn see this...dont give us no warnings buddy...they are going to drop...whether we like it or not. Whenever they sneeze, we will always catch the cold !!! Always has been...always will be.

Posted by jeff imada @ 11:28 AM 1 Comments

Pace slowing but prices still rising

Firstrung: House prices up 2.2%over last quarter

House prices increased in every part of the UK in the last 12 months, but the rate at which they rose was quite different across the country. Northern Ireland and London stand out as the leaders with the fastest annual rates of house price growth in the UK. In contrast, the Northern and North West regions and Wales saw the biggest slowdown in the annual rate of house price growth...

Posted by converted lurker @ 10:03 AM 21 Comments

Bugga!!!!

Guardian: US property market perks up

Sales of existing US homes rose unexpectedly in February, new data showed today, calming fears of a slump in the housing market following recent turmoil in the sub-prime mortgage sector.

Posted by inbreda @ 08:21 AM 8 Comments

Repeat of docklands in the late 80's early 90's

The Independent: City boom lifts new-builds to 13-year high

Quote:
"There are also plans to build 160,000 new homes in the Thames Gateway"
Just as these are being completed in 2009-2010, house prices will be falling badly leaving a dockland's style ghost town like in the early 90's

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 06:50 AM 2 Comments

Tuesday, April 3, 2007

No longer as safe as houses

Daily Mail: No longer as safe as houses

Where America leads, they say, Britain is sure to follow. Be it Elvis, the internet or full-body liposuction, the latest craze to afflict our cousins Stateside tends to sweep us soon thereafter. The question preoccupying bankers lately is whether the turmoil in the American housing market will be the next frenzy to hit our shores.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 11:33 PM 0 Comments

On hols? I think you left the gas on Gordo!!

The Herald: Brown and his part in your pensions downfall

Best bit: "This is where the Chancellor's culpability becomes much more apparent. By allowing the housing market to get completely out of control, the Chancellor has stored up the mother of all problems for the future."

Posted by nearly30 @ 06:22 PM 10 Comments

Is the US market really slowing ??

Bloomberg: Pending sales rise in February

How come the pending sales were up?? Is it because the prices fell down ??

Posted by rj @ 06:16 PM 2 Comments

Where is this year's ISA going?

Market watch: Seven reasons why gold should surge

Make sure you have 5-10% of your wealth in gold/silver related assets

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 05:50 PM 3 Comments

Catch a falling knife

Firstrung: Buy to let - a death by a thousand cuts

BTL investors will cause a stampede as they exit the market if average house prices begin to fall and interest rates increase. However, other than cash rich investors wanting to bag bargains from distressed sellers, selling quickly may not be that simple or straightforward. Having rode the wave of increasing house prices BTL investors may suddenly find just how detatched from reality prices have become, prices that they have indirectly caused to swell by their activity, activity that many may begin to regret if they discover they're holding investments that begin to turn sour rather than reaping short term rewards.

Posted by converted lurker @ 04:42 PM 3 Comments

When Irish eyes are bleeding..other than first time buyers

Firstrung: House prices for first time buyers in Ireland have fallen by 1.1% in 2007

Irish secondhand house prices fell 1.1% in the first quarter of 2007 compared with a 7.6% rise in the corresponding period last year, figures published Monday by the country's largest estate agent show. Estate agent Sherry Fitzgerald - which has 120 branches nationwide - said that its figures show prices in Dublin fell 2.3% in the first quarter compared with an 11.2% rise for the corresponding period last year.

Posted by converted lurker @ 04:28 PM 0 Comments

HIPS and rates take their effect

Evening Standard: Double whammy could send house prices plunging

Rising interest rates and the introduction this summer of Home Information Packs could finally trigger the long-predicted crash in the property market, experts are warning. The cost of buying a home has outpaced wage rises to such a degree that a price fall - or correction - is now said to be inevitable. The Bank of England has increased interest rates, which are currently 5.25 per cent, three times since August.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 01:40 PM 8 Comments

Is BTL a good investment?

LandlordExpert: Buy to let in good shape but red tape is determined to spoil the party

"...a series of incursions into the 'fairy-tale' environment most newbie landlords have existed in for the last 3-4 years - property went up in value on a daily basis, rents were increased ad-hoc, you paid off the mortgage and set yourself a target to be wealthy beyond 'your wildest dreams' before normal retirement age. This rarified atmosphere is quickly being polluted by so much red tape, such as multiple occupancy regulations, that you could forgive recent BTL players for simply giving it up"

Posted by confused76 @ 01:38 PM 11 Comments

More good news!

Evening Standard: 13,000 off house prices in 5 weeks

House prices in London have fallen by an average of almost 13,000 in the past five weeks, a survey reveals today. Fears about the prospect of a housing market crash, the effect of five interest rate rises imposed since November and the fact that sky-high prices have deterred many first-time buyers have contributed to a highly jittery market. And with homebuyers deeply anxious about taking the plunge, sellers have had to scale down asking prices to tempt them. The trend is being seen in every borough. London-wide asking prices fell by an average of 12,600 - or 4.3 per cent - since early last month.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 01:37 PM 16 Comments

US housing slide continues

Bloomberg: Pending Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Probably Fell in February

"To the downside, the correction in the housing market could turn out to be more severe than we currently expect, perhaps exacerbated by problems in the subprime sector"

Posted by james @ 12:11 PM 2 Comments

More stuff on the subprime market

The Market Oracle: US Housing Market - All Foreclosures, All Subprime, All the Time / Housing-Market / US Housing

At the risk of being all subprime, all the time, this week we look at what I think are the real risks for the economy as a result of the subprime debacle. How can one side say it is a contained risk (and in one sense it is) and not a problem for the economy while another side says it will drag the US into a recession and thus be a drag on the world economy? The answers will give us a handle on the whole issue, as we look at how the problem developed.

Posted by bufferbear @ 10:13 AM 2 Comments

Some interesting data

The Market Oracle: Special Report on the UK Housing Market

First-time buyers hit by double whammy New first-time buyers face double whammy of house price and rate rises,, higher house prices alone add 75 to typical first-time buyer monthly costs compared to last year. Interest rate increases bring this up to almost 120. Locking into a fixed rate loan this time last year would have saved a typical first-time buyer 170 to date, with further monthly savings of 50 at current mortgage rates.More first-time buyers choose longer-term and interest-only mortgages which can cut more than 300 off monthly payments.

Posted by bufferbear @ 10:10 AM 1 Comments

Same as 1989

The Telegraph: Recession fears as household savings fall

Excluding the contribution made to household pension funds, the underlying saving ratio actually went into negative territory at the end of last year for the first time since 1989.
More evidence that we are nearly there but not quite

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:48 AM 5 Comments

Even our pensioners are in debt trouble!

Home.co.uk News: Mortgage debt time-bomb for pensioners

Irresponsible lending to the elderly. Pensioners are MEWing to live it seems. Credit gone mad!

Posted by tinecu @ 09:40 AM 1 Comments

Pressure mounts on Brown as Government accused of lying

TimesOnline: Brown aides claim on tax grab is completely untrue, says CBI

The pressure mounts on the alleged Prime Minister in-waiting Gordon Brown as business leaders go on the offensive and accuse the Government of trying to lie its way out of the pension uproar. Brown is conspicuous by his absence but the treasury minister Ed Balls has placed his body in the way in a vain attempt to protect the future PM.

Posted by denzil @ 09:27 AM 6 Comments

More Rays of Sunshine from the US Economy

CNBC: U.S. Manufacturing Grew Less Than Expected In March

Has the US economy given up all hope of delivering positive surprises? Macro number after macro number seems to disappoint in the US lately. Never mind. None of this seems to be clipping the wings of US investors, who are happily piling money into the stock market - that's confidence for you!

Posted by royston @ 12:04 AM 0 Comments

Monday, April 2, 2007

WAAAAHHHHEEEYYYYYYY!!!

BBC: Top US lender in Chapter 11 move

New Century Financial, one of the largest sub-prime lenders in the US, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. New Century sought protection from creditors after it was forced by its backers to repurchase billions of dollars worth of bad loans.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 11:59 PM 1 Comments

How to burst a bubble :-)

New York Times: The Battle for a Mortgage

"...in recent weeks, a growing number of New Yorkers, often with six-figure salaries and reasonably good credit, have begun to find that mortgages are harder to get as lenders try to stem losses from loans to the weakest, or subprime, borrowers." This is talking about things changing a lot in the last month so no stats are going to even have a sniff of the impact yet. Can't wait to see the figures for house sales and prices for April and May when they come out. If you're thinking of selling here best get on with it as we're not that far behind!

Posted by houseoflords @ 11:07 PM 0 Comments

Crash Gordons Spins into Trouble as CBI rebuffs Claim

FT.com: Pension storm hits UK chancellor

Confederation of British Industry reject claims by Browns camp that they had lobbied the Treasury to scrap tax credits on dividend payments in return for a cut in corporation tax in 1997.

Posted by enuii @ 10:00 PM 0 Comments

State of the nation

Credit Action: Debt Facts and Figures - Compiled 2nd April 2007

Amongst the miscellaneous facts and figures... - 34% of mortgages taken out by home movers in January 2007 were interest only mortgages compared with only 12% taken out in June 2003. 27% of these interest only mortgages were taken out without a repayment plan specified to repay the capital. - According to the National Association of Estate Agencies (NAEA) the number of first time buyers were 12.3% of sales in February 2007. (Is that all?)

Posted by wilee @ 07:31 PM 0 Comments

Not great news for potential sub prime borrowers

Bloomberg: New Century, Biggest Subprime Casualty, Goes Bankrupt (Update2)

New Century Financial Corp. became the biggest subprime mortgage company to go bankrupt after the lender, which specialized in loans to people with poor credit records, was overwhelmed by customer defaults. The company filed for Chapter 11 protection today in Wilmington, Delaware, from creditors that include Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc

Posted by paul @ 06:52 PM 0 Comments

Will this keep the market moving?

Bloomberg: Bankers Mull $100 Billion LBO in Year of Record Deals

Bankers are salivating over about $2 billion of fees from leveraged buyouts in the first quarter, and that's just a fraction of what they're assured of earning in the busiest year so far for mergers and acquisitions. It appears that the financial institutions are still steaming ahead and another year of record bonuses look likely. Interesting to note that analysts in this article still think interest on debt is cheap! Will this keep the property band wagon rolling in the UK? Somebody please tell me I'm wrong!

Posted by dr k @ 05:23 PM 0 Comments

First of many??

BBC News: Top US lender in Chapter 11 move

New Century Financial, one of the largest sub-prime lenders in the US, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. New Century sought protection from creditors after it was forced by its backers to repurchase billions of dollars worth of bad loans.

Posted by dr k @ 05:03 PM 0 Comments

More good news???

bloomberg: Subprime Mortgage Bond Sales Plunge as Loan Delinquencies Soar

Sales of bonds backed by subprime mortgages are tumbling as investors and bankers, concerned about rising delinquency rates, pull back from what had been one of Wall Street's fastest growing businesses.

Posted by dr k @ 02:57 PM 0 Comments

Reposted from last week

UCD: On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices.

Many thanks to Royston who posted this article last week.
I printed it out and read it over the weekend.
It is the best thing I've read for ages.
If you gave got time then read it.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 02:29 PM 9 Comments

Credit Crunch Starting in the US

Bloomberg: Subprime Mortgage Bond Sales Plunge as Loan Delinquencies Soar

Evidence that the credit crunch is well underway in the US. If you have read Kindleberger's ""Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises", you will know that this is how booms end and busts begin - demand dries up because banks can't get the money to lend. How long before similar UK stories? My guess is within 3 weeks.

Posted by royston @ 01:43 PM 1 Comments

Going down??

Daily telegraph: House prices to drop in 2008

The housing market is heading for a fall next year, experts have warned, after it emerged that property is at its most overvalued level in more than 15 years. The shortage of suitable houses for sale means many deals are being decided through sealed bids. Soaring prices are putting properties out of reach for many, with unaffordability reaching the worst level since the end of the last major crash.

Posted by dr k @ 01:39 PM 4 Comments

Express needs some basic economics tuition...

Daily Express: SPRING SPARKS HOUSING BOOM

"And with prices already forced up at the start of the year by a lack of properties, the latest development adds new buoyancy to a market that continues to go from strength to strength. Many estate agents are predicting up to a 20 per cent increase in the number of properties entering the market over the next eight weeks. Nick Salmon, director of Harrison Murray Estate Agents, said last night: What we are seeing now will turn into an avalanche by late April and early May. Hmm - is that the ground I see coming up to meet us..?

Posted by bidin\'matime @ 01:11 PM 22 Comments

Irish house prices fall

RTE News: Second-hand house prices slide in Q1

You know it's bad when the estate agents are admitting that prices actually went down. Look out UK!

Posted by royston @ 12:36 PM 1 Comments

In just five years FTBs need mortgages 60% greater

Firstrung: First time buyers need mortgages sixty percent greater than in 2002

First-time buyers hoping to get a foot on the housing ladder in East Anglia are having to borrow almost two and a half times as much cash for their mortgage compared to 10 years ago...The scale of the spiral in house prices also reveals that the average age for becoming a home owner increased by almost 10 years in the last decade, with buyers today typically aged in their mid-30s.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:10 PM 9 Comments

More red tape to squeeze industry from every angle

Firstrung: OFT encourages home buyers to look out for estate agents displaying its Approved code logo

As Codes Awareness Month draws to an end, the OFT is encouraging home buyers to look for estate agents who display the OFT Approved code logo. Independent research shows that customers of businesses that are members of an approved code generally can expect a more structured and developed approach to customer service.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:07 PM 0 Comments

US house price and subprime problem feed through to unemployment numbers

Reuters: Housing's impact on jobs seen spreading

US house price and subprime problem feed through to unemployment numbers. So much for the subprime problem being contained.

Posted by royston @ 12:06 PM 1 Comments

Usnig the house as a cash point

Firstrung: House prices rising encourages mortgage equity withdrawal

Continued rising house prices have encouraged Britons to take more cash out of their homes in the fourth quarter than the third, Bank of England data showed on Monday. Mortgage equity withdrawal rose to 14.6 billion pounds in the October to December quarter from an upwardly revised 12.2 billion in July to September. Withdrawals totalled 6.7 percent of post-tax income in the fourth quarter from 5.5 percent in the third and a low of 3.1 percent in early 2005. Nevertheless, it remains well below peaks of around 9 percent of post-tax income seen in 2003.

Posted by converted lurker @ 12:05 PM 0 Comments

Growth in equity withdrawals to finance spending

Reuters: UK mortgage equity withdrawal soars in Q4

Rising house prices encouraged Britons to take more cash out of their homes in the fourth quarter than the third, Bank of England data showed on Monday

Posted by confused76 @ 11:55 AM 8 Comments

Rents in Aberdeen rise 20% - 50% year on year

Press and Journal: FIRST-TIME BUYERS HIT AS RENTS IN CITY ROCKET

"Rents for private flats in Aberdeen have soared by more than 1,000 a year in the last 12 months, according to new figures released today." 1 Bed flats up from 410 to 500 a month 2 Bed flats up from 616 to 798 a month 3 bed flats up from 1000 to 1500 a month Let's face it, unless you can negotiate that kind of pay increase with your boss, then non home owning Aberdonians have only two choices: Real Hardship or Getting out of the country.

Posted by anthony @ 11:31 AM 0 Comments

spring sparks housing boom

daily express: spring sparks housing boom

prices will soar even faster in rush to sell before labour's 700 home packs come in

Posted by pintail @ 10:52 AM 0 Comments

Roger Bootle - plonker

The Telegraph: US-style housing crash unlikely to occur here - we hope

Quote - "As in the US, things will be fine in the mortgage market and house prices will keep rising - as long as house prices keep rising." Sounds like a bubble then. Conversely in 2008 house prices will keep falling as long as house prices keep falling. Roger Bootle - What a prize idiot

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:28 AM 8 Comments

House prices about to fall

Daily Mail: House prices 'could plummet next year'

House prices could tumble sharply in 2008, experts warned last night. Diana Choyleva of Lombard Street Research said: "We are now clearly at the end of the house price boom. Thousands of properties are being put on the market to avoid the launch of the Home Information Packs on June 1.

Posted by cash_buyer @ 10:10 AM 0 Comments

A National Scandal

The Times: Greed could bring Americas housing sector to grief

It is story of Dickensian bleakness: of avaricious money-merchants and of the broken dreams of struggling but foolhardy men and women who seized on false promises of an easy leg up the ladder of their own aspirations.

Posted by lloyd @ 09:18 AM 1 Comments

CBI Leaders rebuff treasury spin

BBC: Pension 'spin' attack on Treasury

Ministers keen to protect prime minister in-waiting Gordon Brown stated that Business leaders endorsed the decision in Brown's first budget to scrap pension tax credits. CBI director-general Richard Lambert flatly denies support for the policy and stated, "This is a convenient bit of spin by the Treasury". Meanwhile shadow chancellor George Osborne will lead a commons debate on the issue and said, " It is time Gordon Brown faced the music for the damage he's done to British pensions."

Posted by denzil @ 09:07 AM 2 Comments

How about a cheap Chateau?

Telegraph: French housing bubble set to burst

French property construction plummeted 15.1pc in February and home prices have begun to slip in the first sign that America's housing woes are spreading to Europe.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 08:57 AM 3 Comments

Property market 'heading for a fall in 2008'

telegraph: Property market 'heading for a fall in 2008'

The housing market is heading for a fall next year, experts have warned, after it emerged that property is at its most overvalued level in more than 15 years. The shortage of suitable houses for sale means many deals are being decided through sealed bids Soaring prices are putting properties out of reach for many, with unaffordability reaching the worst level since the end of the last major crash, according to figures produced for The Daily Telegraph.

Posted by taffee @ 07:24 AM 5 Comments

It really isn't just a sub-prime problem in the US

Reuters: Mortgage crisis hits million-dollar homes

A view from the auction room. Multi-million dollar homes being sold below what mortgagees paid because people overstretched themselves on cheap credit all the way up the salary scale. .......How long before similar UK stories? 2, 3 weeks? A couple of months? (I'm glad I'm renting!).

Posted by royston @ 12:41 AM 0 Comments

Sunday, April 1, 2007

Invasion imminent.....Dollar collapse just as imminent

Yahoo News: US jet fighters violate Iran's airspace: military

UK Sterling consigned to the dustbin? House Price chattel slavery for millions? There will be more of the following.....
At the Justice Center in Hackensack, New Jersey, on Friday, the wood-paneled room is filled with about 40 people and the auction is routine. The first property on the sales sheet lists a Korean homeowner with $509,000 of outstanding debt. There are no bidders. Deutsche Bank, holder of the busted loan, buys the property with a quick $100 bid. Sheriff McGuire calls the process "one of the most distasteful parts of my position." He places most of the blame on bankers who allowed questionable lending practices.

Posted by lvmreader @ 10:58 PM 0 Comments

Watch the US/UK currencies get killed

Jerusalem Post: 'US ready to strike Iran on Good Friday'

It is irnoic to note that the way Britain, France and Israel were forced out of Egypt in 1956 was by massive depreciation of their currencies. Will the same happen here? What will this do to our illusion of House Prices.

Posted by lvmreader @ 10:50 PM 1 Comments

More to come, more to come....

Gulf Times: Dollar tumbles as US imposes new tariffs on China imports

New York: The dollar dropped against the euro and the yen this week after the US added tariffs on imports from China, fueling concern the levies will reduce trade flow with the worlds biggest holder of foreign reserves. The US currency also fell against the yen on speculation mounting tension in the Mideast will lead investors to reduce holdings in riskier assets financed by loans in Japan. The tariff and Mideast concern yesterday offset US reports showing signs of a stronger economy and accelerating inflation. The whiff of protectionism killed off the bullish sentiment on the dollar, said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist in Toronto at TD Securities Inc.

Posted by lvmreader @ 10:48 PM 0 Comments

Past week in focus

Firstrung: Firstrung, first time buyers, the week in focus - 01/04/2007

Nationwide launched a 25 year fixed rate mortgage, Moneyextra reported that FTBs need (on average) 38K when applying for their mortgage services, Barnardos, Shelter and the Housing Federation have concerns re. child povery, homelessness and the failure of the Government to address housing issues in the Budget...and County Court Judgments rose by 33% in 2006...

Posted by converted lurker @ 01:42 PM 0 Comments

Everyone line up to put the boot in!

Telegraph: Cameron ups pressure on Brown over pensions

David Cameron has accused Gordon Brown of presiding over the "failure" of Britain's pensions system and of trying to "bury" the revelation that he had acted in defiance of official advice.

Posted by nearly30 @ 12:37 PM 3 Comments

Brown's Been Found Out ...

Telegrapg.co.uk: The full horror of Chancellor's debt binge

A long article, but readable, which highlights the long term risks of Brown's monumental borrowing binge. Worth reading and then adding a comment to the "Your View" section.

Posted by talking rot @ 12:21 PM 5 Comments

More evidence of rampant UK inflation

Sunday Times: Firms flex muscles to push up prices

Yet more evidence of rampant inflation in this country that the government's measures are not picking up (.....or should that be 'trying to hide'). This should not surprise anyone who has been looking at the data - if you flood the market with credit, you have to have a comparable increase in available goods. Otherwise you get inflation! So, is an interest rate increase guaranteed in April? The author thinks the likelihood is only 50-50.

Posted by royston @ 12:17 PM 1 Comments

Must buy home at any cost

Guardian Unlimited: The artful lodgers

These people need to start "Living" their lives, this housing bubble is driving people to do the the most odd things. I dont own a property and I choose not to live in a over-populated, extremely expensive city and I am happy. The lengths people will go to to get a piece of the housing action is frankly disturbing. Life shoudnt be this difficult in booming Britain, should it Gordon?

Posted by geed @ 11:52 AM 1 Comments

BTL profit decline (new link)

Firsrung: Buy to let - a death by a thousand cuts

The article that I tried to post earlier. Firstrung changed the web link.

Posted by confused76 @ 10:05 AM 0 Comments

Far Too late - the damage is done

Firstrung: Compulsory licensing for all estate agents in the UK overdue - Halifax Estate Agents

"We're urging other estate agents to follow our lead. Minimum competency standards and professional qualifications are integral to ensuring consumers receive the right advice and a high level of service." Nu Liebour = Estate Agents = Leeches

Posted by sirgoogle @ 08:29 AM 5 Comments

UK Consumer Addiction: We just can't stop spending!

Firstrung: Why UK interest rates will have to rise by June

The latest Confederation of British Industry retail survey suggets that high street sales in March rose at their fastest pace in more than two years, and were twice as strong as analysts had predicted.

Posted by nearly30 @ 01:04 AM 4 Comments

BTL profit decline

Firstrung: Buy to let - a death by a thousand cuts

"From April 6th any deposit relating to a new tenancy agreement has to be 'minded' by an official third party with Government approval and not the landlord. This is the latest in a series of incursions into the 'fairy -tale' environment most newbie landlords have existed in for the last 3-4 years."

Posted by confused76 @ 12:03 AM 1 Comments

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