Monday, April 9, 2007

Sign that boom will continue this summer

HPC traffic at 1 year low

As we enter the final 9-12 months of the boom - the website traffic for HPC.co.uk moves to a 1 year low
This is no surprise as we saw 2 long term bloggers bail last week
I think the MPC decision last week will ensure the boom contimues through the summer months.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:47 PM (992 views)
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17 thoughts on “Sign that boom will continue this summer

  • converted lurker says:

    Alexa rating means nothing unless you have their browser or regularly shop at Amazon. Also there is the suspicion Alexa re-jigged their software to give pref. treatment to ‘techy sites’. I have sites that have gone down the Alexa ratings for example from 60,000 to 100,000 despite getting three times the traffic in the same period.

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    Webmaster,

    Is there any chance of posting your traffic logs to check my hypothesis?

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  • The long expected crash, although inevitable, has not happened yet. People are losing faith. I used to come here every day wishing for a crash so I could buy somewhere in Middlesex. Now I am sure I am emmigrating (leave them to it) and I just come in here to read amusing stories and comments.

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  • Yes, I agree – I think this is an interesting idea, as it will give a snapshot of sentiment. I would imagine that HPC traffic volumes would correlate negatively with the Nationwide’s average HPI graph on the home page. It might also reflect more rapid shifts in mood however, perhaps in response to job losses or IR rises.

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  • It’s quite interesting though, and lowers my opinion of Joe Public even more if traffic is down. The media have finally started talking about an HPC (if tentatively) and it’s as though people are sticking their fingers in their ears and pretending otherwise…

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  • little professor says:

    Who were the 2 long term bloggers?

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  • bidin'matime says:

    And didnt I see Uncle Tom was back with us? We all thought he’d bailed out six months ago. Maybe people just need a break from time to time.

    In any case, the crash becomes more likely as interest in this site dwindles – strictly speaking, it will occur when the site closes down – ie when the last bear has turned bull…!

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  • …speaking about website traffic, have you checked the traffic on the major property sites… they all show reduced activity versus a year ago… back to the 2005 levels and declining… not a good sign considering that the share of people using internet for property searches has increased in the meanwhile…

    http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?url=www.foxtons.co.uk
    http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rightmove.co.uk%2F
    http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?url=www.hamptons.co.uk

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:
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  • Off with their heads!!

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  • talking rot says:

    I said it years ago – House-Price-Crash fatigue. It happens. I dare say some clever person will make a link between HPC-fatigue and Dot-Com-Crash-Fatigue which was prevelent in the mid-1990s. HPC-fatigue is not a sign that the market is about to crash (do not link to “The crash will occur when the last bear turns bull). It is merely an observation that too many people have been crying “Crash” for too long for people to be worried about it. The market didn’t crash yesterday and didn’t crash today and so, clearly, it won’t crash tomorrow either. [Cue: Oh Dear ….]

    As for the suspected leavers, well, we won’t know for certain that they;ve left until they haven’t come back. But how can you measure when some one hasn’t come back. Let’s solve a simple problem, what is a house price crash? 10% decline over 1 year? 30% decline over 5 years? etc etc

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  • After looking at the iran situation deteriorate I just might stay. Iran may be the savorier I’m waiting for!

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  • sold 2 rent 1 says:

    Sohiab,

    I thought you bailed last week???

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  • Chillilizard says:

    Personally I’ve been predicting a house price crash since 2004. I’m at the stage now, where I know its going to happen, but I don’t know when, and I’m not going to try to predict anymore. I used to believe it was purely speculative, but looking at Llondon, there is definately some fundamental reasons for property to still be climbing, even now.

    What I tell myself these days is: What are the chances of a crash during the lifetime of a mortgage; 25 years. I think quite likely!!!. You only profit when you sell. Paper increases mean nothing, unless you MEW or sell.

    I should have gotten in on the ground floor, but I guess i’m more cautious than some. I’m definately not getting in now. Thankfully my brother and mother, who both BTL have now sold, and for quite a bit more money. My brother is now looking to buy in London.

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  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    I for one am getting tired of willing it to happen. Of course, me willing it isn’t going to make it happen, so let’s refresh the basics and try to understand the current frustration:

    The basics:

    We have rampant money supply (public sector borrowing) and cheap credit, made worse by easy availability. We also know that every boom is followed by a commensurate bust and that bubbles overshoot (in both directions) by more than anyone expects.

    Gradually, (on a scale of “well within a mortgage”) cheap credit dries up (as Japan comes out of recession) and lending practices tighten. Uncertainty remains around the money supply – chances are official inflation figures are as reliable as estate agents, so houses may already be losing money. As is often discussed here, how do we protect savings whilst market fundamentals run their course?

    I think we can broadly agree on these, so why the current mood, given the outcome is virtually certain?

    The mood:

    This game of “guess the crash” has been running for quite a while now, years longer than I have been here. It’s become a bit excitable of late, fuelling hopes that this is “it”. With the recent flow of reports from the US and the moniker “sub-prime meltdown”, it started to feel like things were happening more quickly.

    But the market moves in its own time, so we shouldn’t be surprised it hasn’t all happened just yet. Relative to the sentiment of recent stories (e.g. Bloomberg), it might seem like things are on hold. But, like house prices, I think we are getting ahead of ourselves and this is a natural psychological “correction” – retreat and return to trend.

    However don’t forget that there is a trend. Things have changed in the last 6 months – the media now contemplates HPC, even openly predicts it. Those who think it will happen are no longer lonely heretics, but part of a growing mainstream majority.

    It’s a slow motion train-wreck. There has been some excitable chattering of late but that doesn’t mean it’s happening faster. We are closer than we were, but it isn’t going to happen sooner just because we say so. The market moves regardless of spin and counter-spin. Psychology exacerbates, fundamentals dominate.

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  • I’m close to bailing mortgage approved and all. Will hold for the next rate announcement i think.

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