Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Not the end, but perhaps……

UK unemployment starts moving up

The number of people out of work increased by 21,000 to 1.69 million between December and February, but the unemployment rate was steady at 5.5%.

Posted by holding out @ 11:45 AM (1450 views)
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5 thoughts on “Not the end, but perhaps……

  • Scary when you consider:

    The number of people employed in manufacturing fell by 54,000 to 2.97 million, the lowest level since records began in 1978.

    This could be another indicator for worse times ahead – consider the following:

    Trade deficit rising (£4.3bn)
    Increased profits warnings
    Inflation up (China not offsetting – deflationary imports)
    UK factory gate prices leap
    £1 / $2
    Petrol / Oil going up and up

    But – we are all still spending on the high street (up 5% from Feb 2006).

    Very concerning as 75% of us are in Services/Retail, 13% Manufacturing and 2% Agriculture/Other Primary

    So if it goes pop/bang – it could go quickly!!

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  • Nearly30, you missed out the not economically active government employees funded by the Tax economy or are they classed as services?

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  • Nearly 30 and enuii,

    You also need to consider all the young folk who are now paying for their own unemployment benefit by taking out student loans and going to university. This keeps them out of the unemployment stats from 18 to 21- and saddles them with a hefty debt – which the Govt only covers if they remain on slave wages for many years (consigning the majority of graduates to rented accomodation for life).

    In addition how many of the “employed” are part-timers?? How many are on disablement benefits rather than drawing unemployment benefit?

    It would be really interesting to compute the unemployment stats using the methods and categories of 1978. I bet the result would shock the Govt.

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  • sirgoogle / enuii – Heuristics would say that unemployment these days ain’t what it used to be and employment these days aint what it used to be either.

    I myself have only been on contract work for most of my adult life – with periods of up to 6 months unemployment in between contracts.

    Like you say – the part-time figures / cash-in-handers / NEETS (Not in Education Employment of Training) [of which there is an est. 10% of 16 to 18 year olds].

    Lots of people are hidden from the stats – if you use the Pareto Principle – we probably only see 80% of the real figures. But then again Pareto Distribution would say the employment stats are more likely to be – 64% are always in employment and 4% are never in employment making 32% of the population either in transitory state of unemployed to under-employed and back again at any one time.

    My head hurts!!

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  • fahrenheit451 says:

    Err … There’s talk about changing the school leaving age, will it make a difference here.

    I don’t know any of these stats, but if school leaving moves up to 18, this will help reduce the number on benefit. But the effects are not so straight forward as those school leavers who do get work, would be leaving gaps in the workplace for older persons, who may want higher wages. Not sure this is so easy to predict.

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