Monday, February 26, 2007

Groundbreaking research from propertyfinder.com

Population movement drives up house prices

The areas of the UK with the highest inward migration have seen the most dramatic increases in house prices. Apparently, a 1% increase in population can increase house prices by up to 183%.

Posted by jellycaster @ 10:46 AM (493 views)
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4 thoughts on “Groundbreaking research from propertyfinder.com

  • A Polish bloke moved into a bedsit at the top of our road, and overnight our place DOUBLED in value!

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  • its amazing what some people get paid for….

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  • More likely that should read… “a 1% increase in population HAPPENED IN ONE AREA WHERE house prices INCREASED by up to 183%”.

    I can’t find the original report, but the IcWales website says “It found that there is a 73% correlation, meaning that the more people move to an area the higher the house prices will rise”, probably meaning that in 27% of cases house prices fell when the population increased.

    The question is, are property prices increasing because the local population is increasing, or are the events correlated because of another factor? Could it be that areas that succeed economically attract both opportunity-seekers and property inflation?

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  • dohousescrashinthewoods says:

    Good call, Rich. The simple principle that correlation does not imply causality. The two may be completely unrelated, rising prices may have created an environment that draws in migrants or some completely other cause may have resulted in both of these effects.

    At most it poses a hypothesis, but analysis and, er, a few well-studied facts would be needed to turn this from hearsay into news.

    At least it’s free speech.

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