Saturday, Dec 30, 2006

Yet More FTB Bad News

Times Online: House prices drive first-time buyers down to a new low

FTBrs dropped to lowest level for 26 years. Buckinghamshire, FTBs now need nearly 17 X 44K income for ave. 725K property, the Halifax said.

Posted by nearly30 @ 10:59 PM (3439 views)
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1. nearly30 said...

"This is the same as 1980, when the country was heading towards recession and interest rates and unemployment were shooting up. "

OK - so the 'perfect strorm' is IR to be around 15%, unemployment around 32% and a new Tory govt. to come in to power.

Sounds like a plan - bring on the Gen Election - or wait for 2009.

Then again!!???

Saturday, December 30, 2006 11:13PM Report Comment

2. Enuii said...

Are their really any FTBs in Gerrards Cross who buy and average Gerards Cross House. Perhaps the servants earn 44K a year and 'live in'. Anyway my local eastern european gang master has got a special 4 for the price of 1 offer on servants at the moment.

Saturday, December 30, 2006 11:56PM Report Comment

3. Nohpc said...

I don't think Buckinghamshire is too worried about lack of FTBs to be honest. It's not that kind of market.

Sunday, December 31, 2006 02:27AM Report Comment

4. Nohpc said...

And nearly30 you are another person wishing misery upon tens of millions of people which quite frankly is evil wishful thinking and I hope you have a rotten time in 2007 you little weasel.

Sunday, December 31, 2006 02:28AM Report Comment

5. magnifico said...

I find it extremely worrying that the market is still apparently healthy, even without the input of FTBs.
I worked on the assumption that the FTB was the foundation on which House Prices were based. A crash hasn't happened yet, but I compare the current property situation with a stack of Jenga blocks, progressively getting weaker and still standing....

Sunday, December 31, 2006 07:38AM Report Comment

6. talking rot said...


Next year, we'll still be here, and still be sad, because a House Price Crash still won't have happened. It is destined for 2020 and be a drop of 20%, so houses will no longer be totally, hugely, incredibly unaffordable; they will only be totally unaffordably.

2008 looks like being an interesting year.

Sunday, December 31, 2006 10:10AM Report Comment

7. sold 2 rent 1 said...

talking rot,

I agree. 2007 will see peak prices but no crash until 2008-10.

Look at Ireland for clues.
Its HPI peaked in the summer but there will be no major crash until the economy takes a downturn

FYI, I have found a great place to preserve my cash from inflation.
I have a Turkish bank account that earns up to 17.5% on a 1 month time deposit.
The money has to be in YTL (lira) so you are playing a currency game.

The lira crashed 30% last April so the risks of a similar one are slim. Recently it seems to have stabilised after clawing back some of its fall.

Sunday, December 31, 2006 10:51AM Report Comment

8. About-to-buy said...

Yawn indeed.

I want a house but I've been a cynic for too long. I really can't continue to lose out like I have done over the past few years. On Tuesday I exchange...

Sunday, December 31, 2006 11:44AM Report Comment

9. bidin'matime said...

BTL is propping up the market - we need a serious interest rate rise to switch that off and the whole thing will collapse. How serious is serious? Well, with yields well below the current mortgage rates it neednt be too serious, but if they are paying 150k, costing around 10k pa interest on standard rates, then after insurance, upkeep etc they must be at least a few thousand a year out of pocket at the moment - a 0.25% rate rise would add around 30/month to that so probably not enough, but with each 0.25% we get, it gets tougher.

Dont forget that its the ones buying property that make the market forget about those who bought years ago (or even yesterday) and claim to be in it for the long term they may or may not be, but its the ones who buy tomorrow and the day after that push up the prices, not those who bought years ago. Eventually they will keep their hands in their pockets and 'wait and see' - then just you wait and see...

Sunday, December 31, 2006 12:26PM Report Comment

10. bidin'matime said...

About to Buy - sorry to hear it about your impending exchange - if only all buyers realised that by standing back and holding fire for even a few months, the market would collapse - you are merely stoking the fire. Sadly I fear you will pay the price, for many many years to come.

Still, they say that the market is bound to crash when the last bear turns bull, so I suppose the more readers on this site who go off and buy, the more likely a crash becomes... (wasnt there a film like this - called The Dead Pool, as I recall)

Sunday, December 31, 2006 12:52PM Report Comment

11. Ticktock said...

about to buy,

You must be crazy, but good luck anyway.

2008-2012 i think too. Slow but painful none the less. I would't consider buying before 2012 even if prices crashed by 25% tomorrow!

Happy New Year everyone (??)

Sunday, December 31, 2006 12:56PM Report Comment

12. David20040_0 said...

You don't need first time buyers if you have buy to let investors and with approximately 250K coming here after Bulgaria and Romania join the EU I am sure landlords will have a great 2007 and the market will continue to rocket.

I have given up ever thinking about buying a house, what's the point, I'll be dead before I pay off the mortgage.

Sunday, December 31, 2006 01:13PM Report Comment

13. C'mon Correction said...

Still everyone takes this 8-10% rise in house prices this year as fact?

Well it's not in my area (south wales), the reports for this area this year range from 0-5% at the very best. I can hand on heart say there are lots of houses I've been watching that are lower now than 6-12 months (still on market) ago, and more interest rate pain to come in the new year.

I would be a fool to buy at the moment, because house prices here just are simply not worth it - period - no agrument. They are FALLING, no question about it, and my rent for 2007/08 has just been held at the same amount AGAIN making it ever cheaper against inflation and my increasing wage.

Prices are still approx 30-40% above trend, that is to say if you buy now - you are paying 30-40% more than you should. So I won't - simple!

I'm looking forward to further price falls, increased savings and saving rate and higher wage (with a bit of luck!) in 2007 !

Happy New Year all !!!

Sunday, December 31, 2006 01:17PM Report Comment

14. Taffe said...

two friends of mine have just bought on the same 'can't wait any longer' theory....personally think they are nuts.Buy-to-let is the key here....the figures don't stack up and maintenance on the property is not being factored in...nor is gaps in tenancies.

Sunday, December 31, 2006 03:30PM Report Comment

15. nearly30 said...

noHPC - that's a bit unneccesary! "Weasel"?

Why d'you think I put "Then again!!???" - don't think the 'perfect storm' most here are watching out for is what we want.

On the contrary - I am just as concerned as the next blogger that the UK's economy is being so badly handled.

I would rather the economy be more realistic and sustainable.

I myself was 8 months unemployed (2005/06) after a near fatal illness - so know how hard things get when your savings and income disappear overnight.

Wouldn't wish it upon anyone - but am aghast when people put themselves in such perilous financial situations and the 'wiser' authorities do nothing to prevent rampant mis-management.

Hoping everyone has a successful and prosperous new year in 2007.

Sunday, December 31, 2006 05:57PM Report Comment

16. Inflation Is Eating My Savings said...

Happy New Year everyone.
Now that Saddam is dead, the world will sort itself out. Everything will be ok.

Sunday, December 31, 2006 06:17PM Report Comment

17. inflation is eating my savings said...

Happy New Year everyone.
Now that Saddam is dead, everything will be just fine. Don't worry.

Sunday, December 31, 2006 06:18PM Report Comment

18. Headmelter said...

happy new year everyone at HPC. The clock is ticking.....Tick Tock......

Sunday, December 31, 2006 09:26PM Report Comment

19. talking rot said...

sold 2 rent 1

Thanks for the tip. Unfortunately I am a cautious investor on the ground that I do not earn very much so please don't be offended if I don't take it up.

Come 2010 I'll either buy a mansion (3 or 4 bed semi or det) or a cardboard box depending upon my ISAs and where the house market goes. If a cardboard box looks likely, I reckon a Dutch Barge has to be a good bet! No Council Tax!

Happy New Year.

Sunday, December 31, 2006 10:59PM Report Comment

20. paul said...

I still think that the HPC won't happen and what we will get instead is something far more hairy and worse akin to Japan's financial meltdown in the early 90s, taking at least one major mortgage lender with it.

Happy New Year everyone!

Tuesday, January 2, 2007 10:01AM Report Comment

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