Monday, Nov 13, 2006

They keep on going

BBC News: House prices continue upward move

UK house price inflation picked up in September, according to the Department of Communities & Local Government.

Posted by scumbag @ 12:57 PM (412 views)
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19 Comments

1. waitingfor hpc said...

usual stuff.

Monday, November 13, 2006 02:06PM Report Comment
 

2. David20040_0 said...

Usual stuff indeed, prices continue to rise and this site yet again is wrong, when will people wake up. Houses prices are not going to crash!

Monday, November 13, 2006 02:18PM Report Comment
 

3. george monsoon said...

good good, more reasons for Mervyn to say "up yours" to the government and shove the rates up 1%

Monday, November 13, 2006 03:58PM Report Comment
 

4. nearly30 said...

Until the govt slaps a business tax and increased council tax contribution on the Buy-2-Launderers - I guess houses will climb ever on - what with the bonuses and pension funds all going into property. Talk about homes being considered a luxury item - disgusting!!!

I even doubt that poor rental incomes will effect the buyers (in the short term) who slosh the market with 'spare cash' will care much as the prices indicate a good (but fake) investment to them. Oh and they spend any extra dosh on tarting the places up - which is great when the crash comes - I will buy it then - won't need to waste my cash then!!!!

What fools are they - "who will buy my wonderful rose?" - yes very nice but when you can't afford to pay for the utilities or food - what good are roses?

Monday, November 13, 2006 08:41PM Report Comment
 

5. geed said...

BTL mortgages are too easy to attain. It should be much harder for an investor to borrow money than someone who wants to borrow money to buy a home. Get rid of these Porsche driving amateur propety speculators and the market will correct itself .

Monday, November 13, 2006 10:39PM Report Comment
 

6. Leedel20 said...

Well said, they must become extinct.

Monday, November 13, 2006 11:32PM Report Comment
 

7. paul said...

David20040_0,

You've not been looking at past trends obviously. I'll bet you're not really a person who looks at "all the numbers", are you?

Tuesday, November 14, 2006 09:19AM Report Comment
 

8. David20040_0 said...

Paul,

Believe me I know all about past trends, my parents were directly affect by the house price crash in the late 1980s / early 1990s.

I am highly educated, 2:1 Law LLB and have also studied economics.

Trends, do not always repeat themselves, yes if you look at the graph at the front of the site it does appear that houses are historically high, yet they still keep on rising at roughly 1%+ a month, that is an awful lot for a market that is supposedly overvalued.

I suspect many on this site wish that prices could go back to 1996 levels. I doubt if many of you had bought houses then that you would believe that prices are going to drop.

Believe me there is nothing I want more in the world than for prices to drop, I am about to hit 22, I don't want a 55+ year mortgage.

I also save every penny I earn each month in order to try and save a deposit but the rises each month outstrip what I have earnt.

I do not believe this site is impartial. I honestly truly believe prices will never drop, the UK is a very crowded little island and immigration is running at very high levels. Interst rates are still extremely low, does anyone really think a little 0.25% hike is going to make any difference, it is just a gesture, next month house prices will rise unabated.

It is just a depressing scenario that we find ourselves in.

The banks are also allowing people to borrow up to 5* their income now (Abbey / Banco Santander). With cheap credit available then people will just borrow those sums of money and further push up the prices.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006 11:10AM Report Comment
 

9. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.

 

10. bidin'matime said...

David20040_0 said "if you look at the graph at the front of the site it does appear that houses are historically high, yet they still keep on rising at roughly 1%+ a month, that is an awful lot for a market that is supposedly overvalued."

David - it's called a bubble.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006 01:30PM Report Comment
 

11. The Capitalist said...

David (Luke)

I was there in 1990, 22 years old wondering how I would ever get on the ladder. What we are seeing now happened back then. In 1998 I bought my first flat for 44,000 in Chichester West Sussex. The rest as they say is history.

Remember markets are driven by fear and greed - facts about immigration, low interest rates are always used by the housing bulls, and phrases like 'it's differant this time'. What I'm trying to say is that business and markets are driven by SENTIMENT and guess what? It can change in a bat of an eye. Remember that during the great property bear market in the early 1990s interest rates were falling, and still prices fell. The signs of a long and deep recession are blindingly obvious.

You'll get your home - be patient and save like mad, and for God's sake stay out of estate agents and mortgage brokers offices!

Obi Wan



Tuesday, November 14, 2006 01:51PM Report Comment
 

12. inbreda said...

David20040_0 said "I do not believe this site is impartial"

I say - "No shit Sherlock"

With deductive powers like that I suddenly feel utterly compelled not to believe your unfounded theory that house prices will only ever go up.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006 02:15PM Report Comment
 

13. David20040_0 said...

I said house prices will not crash, there is absolutely no reason for them to do so.

Maybe it is a bubble, but why won't it pop, ever? I want it to be a bubble too but I strongly suspect that these prices are just going to keep on rising.

Face it, we are a long way away from any sort of slowdown. Though I wish we weren't.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006 02:54PM Report Comment
 

14. David20040_0 said...

Inbreda my theory is not unfounded, England, exclude Wales, N Ireland and Scotland for the time being is one of the most densely population nations on earth, we simply don't have the room for a massive boom in housing contruction.

Net immigration is very high.

Interest rates are stupidly low, they need to go up to at least 7% to stop inflation.

Abbey are offering huge multiples for mortgages, so cheap credit is available further pouring fuel to the fire.

I agree it looks like a bubble, but it sure doesn't act like one.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006 02:58PM Report Comment
 

15. Mattgibbo said...

so David20040_0 you claim you are highly educated yet your still 21. I take it you were a child genius. If i wasn't convinced by you before that you then claim houses are still rising approx 1% a month so that's approx 24% in the last 2 years.................I take it your approxiations are give or take 150%.
At 21 you are not highly educated, you are still Sh****ng yellow and you have proved it.

p.s. I do not believe Louis is impartial on xfactor....do I win 5???

Tuesday, November 14, 2006 05:23PM Report Comment
 

16. paul said...

Highly educated. When and if you go for a PhD, you will be handed the certificate by your professor wearing white gloves. The reason he wears white gloves is because he knows that qualifications are hazardous to health - they can stop you thinking for yourself, mostly because people who have them think they know it all.

The housing market has had a run of inflation for the same reason an economy gets a run of inflation - too much money chasing too few goods. Lax lending is the equivalent to printing money to raise prices - so now we have only two ways out - keep on printing money or stop printing money and watch the market crash.

For the time being the consensus for the Bank of England and private mortgage lenders has been to keep printing money by further loosening lending criteria.

It's certainly not a long-term strategy though ...

Trends do repeat themselves - that's why they're called trends. And this site is no more biased than the "reportage" we hear from the property sections in broadsheets.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006 05:29PM Report Comment
 

17. Matto said...

We'll be a 1990 Japan all over again, not for exactly the same reasons but the bad loans will catch some of the banks out quickly and everyone will say "who let the banks lend so irresponsibly"?

When the dollar drops (if China starts buying gold and selling its dollars - though it may not, as holding all of your main "rivals" economic future under your control might not be a bad thing) then the penny will drop that printing your way out of economic slowdowns is not sustainable. It's just the dotcom bubble in another asset class all over again. We perhaps shouldn't be so down, it all merely shows that human nature endures . . .

Tuesday, November 14, 2006 06:46PM Report Comment
 

18. inbreda said...

I feel guilty for being so harsh to David2004.

David, you must realise that we all on this site have a vested interest. We're not claiming otherwise.

Please don't be offended by my - or any other - comments in this blog.

Although I admit I am a VI and an opinionated one at that, I am open to all theories, so if you think house prices will not crash, then please keep saying it (expect some flak, but please keep saying it). The banter (if the webmaster would PLEASE leave messages up for more than a day!) makes you justify your opinions. And that is what it is all about. A discussion. If you can come up with a GOOD argument for WHY house prices won't crash then I will be converted. I am open to all suggestions.

Use the forum to discuss and sort your own head out. We are all only after the truth, but we are here because we have an allegedly subversive opinion. I do, however, think that the majority on this site are intelligent, and their arguments are well thought out and fundamentally sound.

Please don't leave, but please accept that your arguments need some fine tuning.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006 09:49PM Report Comment
 

19. David20040 said...

I want nothing more than house prices to crash beleive me, I don't want a 55 year mortgage.

I am also saving as much as I can per month, but whatever I save gets outstripped by a rising market, that is a little disheartening.

I agree that trends repeat themselves but I can't see this one repeating itself.

There was a housing shoartage in Edmonton, Canada which caused house prices to rocket, however large countries like Canada, the USA and Australia can just build themselves out of the problem. Here in the UK we don't really have this option, it is crowded here and we know it.

Cheap credit is in abundance, I know loads of people who are already in debt and are offered new credit cards, loans etc. You have to admit guys credit is extremely easy to get in this country. The Abbey / Banco Santander giving 5* are supposedly rigorous checks is further fuelling this mess.

Believe me, I want a housing crash, but do you really believe the Government, a supposedly Labour one at that will allow it to happen, will it hell because Gordon Brown will look like an idiot. End to boom and bust will be destroyed and the Tories would have a field day :)

Wednesday, November 15, 2006 10:39AM Report Comment
 

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