Saturday, Nov 25, 2006

The Guardian assesses David Miles' claim that house prices are set to fall

The Guardian: Will the property bubble ever burst?

The collapse of the housing market has long been predicted, but Ashley Seager doubts anyone can put an exact timescale on it

Posted by jellycaster @ 09:08 AM (468 views)
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11 Comments

1. paul said...

In the article they say that prices will fall, so they answer their own question.

Duh.

Saturday, November 25, 2006 12:22PM Report Comment
 

2. Mjchum said...

I'm starting to wonder whether the unaffordability of housing is just a sign that we are all now much poorer. I'm starting to doubt this will ever change. We need to get back to the realisation that money is not the economy, it is simply the means of exchange of a effort, ingenuity, material resources and overall production of things we need to survive/make life more comfortable. A country that turned it's back on 'making things' is doubtless going to suffer the consequences of such a betrayal of heritage.

Saturday, November 25, 2006 01:09PM Report Comment
 

3. Rentslave said...

He claims that the influx of immigrants from Easter Europe and other places in recent years has improved rental yields. Has it?

I live in central london and my rent is less than it was when I first moved here in 2001. Since then prices have doubled, so I suspect yields have fallen despite this influx.

The BTL market is the gust of air inflating this bubble and it is likely to fall over at the first sign of stress.

Saturday, November 25, 2006 05:32PM Report Comment
 

4. Surfgatinho said...

Yet again somebody analyses the housing market as if it were in a vacuum. If IRs don't pinch then rising inflation will. Then there is rising unemployment and the possibility of a US led recession coming our way. On top of this it looks like we might have reached debt / MEW saturation. Factor these in and the picture isn't quite as obscure

Saturday, November 25, 2006 05:56PM Report Comment
 

5. David20040_0 said...

With Romania and Bulgaria joing the EU next year anyone believing there will be a house price crash is going to be sorely disapointed.

Saturday, November 25, 2006 10:46PM Report Comment
 

6. Ticktock said...

Mjchum,

Absolutely. The belief that financial engineering, swapping housing, and swapping debts, constitutes in any way a 'stable economy' is absolute maddness. Every month we grow more dependant upon factors that are way beyond our control, and increasingly, way out of control too.
The evangelical and dogmatic belief in the 'open' economy has ruined the Nation (despite the frantic propagada to suggest the contrary)
We are now dependant upon imports for everything from energy to food, and from capital to labour. The NHS is being sold to US health care/ insurance companies and our land to US REITs. Even our defense industry has been sold off. There is talk of a UK break up (with the Scots going it alone and England being broken into EU regions) we own few of our own businesses, and none of our own banks. Racial tensions are soaring, and Nationalism is growing as a result. Our society is crumbling all around us, with massive transfers of wealth from young to old, and poor to rich and our ' (un)democratic' institutions prevent us from doing anything about it.
We are now the third most hated Nation on earth, involved in a immoral and illeagle war that cannot neither be won, nor justified, while at home an increasingly authoritarion Government introduces Orwellian legislation that nobody wants, but cannot prevent.
'We never had it so good' we are told. I am yet to meet an Englishman who agrees with this 'National narrative'. Funny that.

Sunday, November 26, 2006 11:19AM Report Comment
 

7. harold said...

"With Romania and Bulgaria joing the EU next year anyone believing there will be a house price crash is going to be sorely disapointed." David20040_0

This has to be the most ridiculous thing I have ever read on this blog: property-to-income ratios at an all-time high, debt at an all-time high, manufacturing on its knees, unemployment rising, US going into recession, IRs rising EVERYWHERE, but don't worry folks cause here come the cavalry, i.e., "Romania and Bulgaria joining the EU"!

We really are in trouble.

Sunday, November 26, 2006 04:32PM Report Comment
 

8. Rimmer said...

Harold said

I have to agree 100%, what do people think the EU is? One main aim of the EU is for the richer members ( ie The UK etc ) to raise the living standards and overall aspects of life for the poorer ( Romania and Bulgaria ) , why is it the general public dont seem to realise that basic fact.

I fully anticipate next year the unthinkable will be required, Gordon will have to raise taxes to fund his requirements in oan out of the UK.

For the likes of David 20040 you might be correct there wont be a crash, problem is what you call a crash, i view a 50 - 70% drop in property values as a crash, a 10 - 20% reduction over the next 10 years ( which with inflation will be about 30 - 40% ) is a correction.

Sunday, November 26, 2006 05:35PM Report Comment
 

9. David20040_0 said...

Up to half a million people will enter the United Kingdom, of course that is going to keep prices stable, stop kidding yourself Harold. The influx of workers from Poland has kept the supposed housing 'miracle' going.

An influx of Bulgarians and Romanians will kept it going for a little while longer.

And it isn't ridiculous. They will not drop next year.

Sunday, November 26, 2006 08:14PM Report Comment
 

10. Doomwatch said...

Harold, maybe David20040_0 has a point (wait for it); If I had held a "portfolio" of BTLs for a few years & made a significant unrealised gain and was concerned that
property is now over-valued, would I sell to realise these paper profits, or would I think, hang on, I'll wait for a load of Romanian gypsies to come over to the UK, to
do what ? Oh yeah, their sole purpose is to create demand in the BTL market.

Absolute rubbish. SELL and SELL fast.

Monday, November 27, 2006 01:27PM Report Comment
 

11. Dohousescrashinthewoods said...

Ticktock, I salute you, we live in a police state with a kitchen-cabinet government who do whatever they feel like, with no mandate or support from a people who are being frightened and surveillanced into silence.

We are, as Mjchum says, poorer and more unhappy than ever, living in a nation that is falling apart structurally and economically and (for the most part) being kept quiet by the cooings of "you've never had it so good" and the stick of debt that keeps suffering heads quietly below the parapet.

In the meantime, we have a trillion in consumer debt, Mad King Blair and chums making random policy, interest rates up, unemployment rising, US heading into a recession, mortgage lenders encouraging customers to depart from reality on their applications and Gordon actively keeping all his figures (e.g. inflation) away from reality.

What part of "the emperor has got no clothes on" do you think is missing from this picture? Time to clear debts, get savings within reach, get into the safest job you can find and, in short, make your best attempt at your own stability because the UK's "economic stability" looks like a sham from here.

Monday, November 27, 2006 02:39PM Report Comment
 

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