Monday, Nov 20, 2006

Sustained price increases in Greater London keeps overall growth high for October

Reuters: UK house prices up 12.4 pct y/y in Nov -Rightmove

House prices in England and Wales rose at their fastest annual pace in 2 years between October and November to surge to a record high, a survey showed on Monday, indicating higher interest rates have yet to dent the market.

Posted by jellycaster @ 08:39 AM (433 views)
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1. talking rot said...

I'm not going down the same road of George Monsoon but .....

Far from being the lone voice in the wilderness, this Blog is in danger of loosing credibility. For how long have we been predicting a house price crash - whatever a crash is? It still hasn't happened and hence those smug property owners who are my personal friends are chuckling at me more and more: the harmless eccentric! The only thing we've been a part of is House Price Crash fatigue.

Let me guess - Come January, we'll all start saying "2007 looks like being an interesting year"!

Monday, November 20, 2006 09:03AM Report Comment

2. David20040_0 said...

Yeah, I am starting to think this as well.

I said that a 0.25% interest rate would make no odds and was shouted down.

Let's face it a house price crash just isn't going to happem we have all been wrong for so long.

For the next ten years they are just going to keep going up.

Monday, November 20, 2006 09:20AM Report Comment

3. george monsoon said...

Unless we cause one..... Who's with me?

Monday, November 20, 2006 10:48AM Report Comment

4. monty said...

This forum is suffering from HPC fatigue because, I believe, it it constantly trying to predict the timing of a crash. If the best minds in the business get it wrong (Bootle and friends) why flatter yourself in thinking you can get it right?

The reason I read and participate in this forum is that I am concerned about the possibility of an HPC. I don't believe it will be good for the me, the economy, UK Plc or Joe public. Some, sitting on a pile of cash at the moment, may be able to profit from it. Good luck to you.

Never say never. There is still the possibility of a crash but I'm more inclined to think of it in terms of probability rather than inevitability. It doesn't offend me when someone claims there will be a crash. It's still possible - even a broken watch is right twice a day.

Monday, November 20, 2006 10:50AM Report Comment

5. sold 2 rent 1 said...

talking rot / David20040_0 / george,

Speak for yourselves guys, but I never predicted a crash for 2006
I am not even sure that we will see one in 2007
If I have to call the shots then its 2008 for me

The conditions for a crash are improving all the time; namely higher house prices and higher IRs

I am with monty on this one. A HPC and recession will see my business income reduced severely. All I am trying to do is offset some of the risk with alternative investments.

The saddest thing is that if one does happen then it will be 2011 before it is worth buying again.

There are a lot of imbalances in the world economy and lot of conflicting indicators. At some point this credit expansion will turn to a credit crunch.

A more important issue is the inflation v deflation scenario when the next recession starts. The investors who predict this correctly are the ones who will come up smelling of roses.

Monday, November 20, 2006 12:08PM Report Comment

6. inbreda said...

I'm less concerned with HPC fatigue as I am with the serious cases of schizophrenia that are starting to appear on this site.

Monday, November 20, 2006 01:41PM Report Comment

7. Countdown2007 said...

I still believe that house prices go up and come down again.
At the moment it looks to me that through those increases in house prices the bubble just gets bigger and more ready to burst!
If the credit card mentality keeps going on and people keep taking out equity out of their houses and wages don't rise and everything becomes more expensive, something has to give...
This web site and its contributors have given me a lot of knowledge and courage not to enter the housing market at present. I am still proud and patient to rent and not to follow people who for some reason feel they have to get on the ladder at any cost.

Keep up the good work and spirit ;-)

Monday, November 20, 2006 02:15PM Report Comment

8. Martyn said...

I agree with s2r, a sound approach to uncertain conditions. For me the only real uncertainty is the timing.

Fundamentally houses are overpriced. I believe this because I lived through the last crash when there was similar sentiment and timing. And the more recent dotcom crash happened despite all the 'experts' telling us that the traditional ways of valuing stocks was now outdated.

Quite how the price comes back down is a matter for conjecture, will be be a crash or will it be a period of stability? History suggests these things happen in cycles so it will be a crash. I fear s2r is also right about how long it will be before prices are affordable again. So take stock, get the finances sorted, protect whatever you have to be ready to come back into the market a few years from now.

Monday, November 20, 2006 04:40PM Report Comment

9. nearly30 said...

Keep the faith everyone.

I think the HPC will be more sporadic - regionally.

Take anybody out of the South and make them live 'Tup North' and they won't see such a rosey picture being painted.

quote from article:

"prices in London leaping 18.2 percent on a year ago while asking prices in the North rose by just 3.1 percent"

The forum is waiting for the bubble to burst - yes - but London/South will be the last place to burst - dare I say at all in the next 2 years!!!????

Too much foreign investment and city bonuses - which is totally un-heard of and an alien concept north of Watford.

If you want to cheers yourselves up - find data and articles about housing away from London/SouthEast.

Much as Thatcher destroyed communities in the mining areas - Blairs legacy is negative equity and ruined families in areas outside London/SouthEast.

Group-hug everyone???

Monday, November 20, 2006 09:05PM Report Comment

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