Tuesday, Nov 28, 2006

secular trends continue

www.bullnotbull.com: Is This It?

Dollar breaks down
Dow finally corrects
Gold ready for lift off

The secular trends are continuing after a cyclical reversal
The 33-36 year cycle is lookig good again
The goose is nearly cooked for the housing market

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 02:29 PM (2785 views)
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1. Uncle Tom said...

I've been out of the loop for a few weeks - there's been a bit of irrational exuberance (which gets tedious to explain after a while...) - and I'm always busy round Bonfire Night..

Spoke to my Stockbroker at Brewin's this morning, who thought the dollar fall was good news for UK plc...

..I spoilt his day.

The dollar fall is almost certainly transitory. It is probably the first shot of what might get dubbed 'The great adjustment'

Sure it's fallen, but wait to see Chinese and Indian export prices rise to compensate, and Japan start panicking over it's huge dollar assets...

In the short term nothing much will happen here, but rapidly rising consumer goods prices will put huge inflationary pressures on the US, leading to higher interest rates...

..then it will be our turn

Tuesday, November 28, 2006 10:35PM Report Comment

2. harold said...

Telling that in a speech today Bernanke didn't even mention the dollar.

IMHO stocks are likely to correct soon, knocking the City sideways. At this time the - which is ridiculously overvalued - will fall.

UT, we all thought you'd jumped ship and bought a pad in Chelsea. We've missed your IR predictions - which, admittedly, wasn't difficult in November.

Tuesday, November 28, 2006 11:57PM Report Comment

3. Nohpc said...

Dow has not corrected merely a temporary slight dip and gold has not taken off. Dollar is low though and I think the Dow will correct soon. 33 - 36 year cycle is a laughable idea there is no way you can predict things in that way. anybody making decisions based purely on a hope that timing will repeat itself is frankly a bit dim.

Wednesday, November 29, 2006 04:27AM Report Comment

4. Blindleadtheblind said...

its not only the $ that is vunerable, the enourmous stress on the $ will in turn be passed to Sterling and IR will adjust upwards accordingly with devastating effect on housing. Winner in this situation will be precious metals, gold is already signaling its intentions. Adding in the potential for severe problems in the derivatives market and a position in gold is mandatory for the prudent imo.
Another note regarding houses, if there are credit / liability problems with banks due to any circumstances, they own the house not the person holding the mortgage, even if a payment has never been missed. A sobering thought if you think a currency led crisis cant hurt.

Wednesday, November 29, 2006 07:15AM Report Comment

5. tyrellcorporation said...

UT... Good to have you back big guy!

You can help us debunk some blog trolls who have been stalking the forum of late...

Wednesday, November 29, 2006 08:38AM Report Comment

6. miniftse said...

Be wary sold 2 rent 1, im not sure the recent dollar fall wasn't anything more than closing of bets prior to thanks giving so the weekend wasnt interupted. It hasnt really moved anywhere if you look at the longer trend. Still far higher than Q2 this year! I have some big bets on it falling and wish it would, put it this way id be happy if it was anywhere near Q2 this year but im not sure its moving anywhere whislt high interest remain in the US. In the short term I also expect gold will plunge, primarily in response to sustained high interest in the states. Be wary.

Wednesday, November 29, 2006 09:31AM Report Comment

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