Wednesday, Nov 22, 2006

On the front page of the BBC site!!!!!

BBC: House prices 'set for slowdown'

A well posted story but significant this has reached the BBC.

The UK's rampant house price inflation is likely to slow down dramatically in the next year or two, according to a former government economic adviser.
The prediction comes from David Miles, the Morgan Stanley chief UK economist.

Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 12:07 PM (705 views)
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1. bidin'matime said...

"This latest report, entitled UK Housing: How did we get here, is the latest prediction that the current house price boom will come to an end some time soon.

Earlier this month, accountancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers predicted there was a one-in-three chance of UK house prices falling by 2010.

And last week, the Financial Services Authority (FSA) warned banks to make sure they could survive if house prices fell by as much as 40%."

This is the sort of cumulative reporting effect that we want to see and expect to see more of as the downturn takes over from the boom as the main story. Great to see the Beeb on to this - it's going to be featured on the world at one as well - listening in, waiting for it right now!

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 01:15PM Report Comment

2. Bigwavedave said...

Interesting to note that, at the time of writing this post, the story was the most read and most emailed on the BBC website. I think that perhaps, at long last, we are having a moment of clarity!

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 01:40PM Report Comment

3. holding out said...

I've just heard it on the World at one. It briefly mentions the report at the beginning, ignores it and goes into a 5 minute report about city bonuses and high house prices.

You can't help but notice all the newspaper headlines talk about bursting bubbles and house price falls whereas the BBC manages only a "slowdown"

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 01:51PM Report Comment

4. jimmytennor said...

Slowdown my ass - watch this space. The tide is turning, 2007 will be the telling year - our (majority) thoughts will see fruition...

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 02:03PM Report Comment

5. Dahman said...

This is a world wide event..
Even the Algerian government has decided to lower social house prices by 40% for the next 3 years (until 2010)..
What a brave decision..
However, the decision was taken after a large portion of the algerian population decided not to buy the new homes built by the government (by the private sector). so, it's kind of a forced decision..

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 02:05PM Report Comment

6. Devils Advocate said...

"The tide is turning, 2007 will be the telling year"

Didn't everyone say that about 2006 last year?

And about 2005 the year before..?

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 02:39PM Report Comment

7. magnifico said...

Holdin out,
on the subject of newspaper headlines, check out The daily Mail editorial by David Seymour (unfortunately not on the online edition).
It's titled: In Hock. Once, debt was a four-letter word for the middle classes. Today, it's their only means of survival.
It's inspiring reading, nothing too different from what we've been saying here though, but word such as denial and crash come across as totally believable. Let's raise our glass to the awakening of the media, long may it continue.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 03:06PM Report Comment

8. Sam said...

yes, but when it happens, are we all gonna start a website called, where we can all gloat about the houses we are buying only to make a killing for the next boom in the market???

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 03:07PM Report Comment

9. paul said...

The London Tube rags are full of it too - even use speech marks - HOUSE PRICE CRASH 'CERTAIN'.


Wednesday, November 22, 2006 07:40PM Report Comment

10. nearly30 said...

And there we all were getting the 'HPC fatigue' earlier in the week - this one's for you george monsoon!!

Biggup the journalists who have suddenly seen the light.

Right better start looking at which bargins I will be picking up in 6 years time - better start saving for that deposit.

What do you reckon 100 a month? Take advantage of the soon to rise interest rates???

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 07:50PM Report Comment

11. P. Doff said...

Yes, but I see there are no blogs on the posting below which predicts a 7% increase in 2007.
Properties are still flying off the estate agents shelves in this part of North Wales. BTL still rules here, with many buyers from outside the area.

Logic dictates it cannot continue, but I've been saying that for the last 2 years. Still, shouldn't complain, it's keeping me gainfully employed!!!

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 08:34PM Report Comment

12. harold said...

My word, rumble tumble from the BBC - well I never.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 09:19PM Report Comment

13. nearly30 said...

P. Doff - of course there are no blogs on the 7% increase in 2007 - that's because it's speculative - everyone here and now in the media seems wise to the bullish sentiments of the housing market.

Not worth a comment - anyone buying is a fool - as for logic dictates - look at any recent affordability graph - the populus is maxed out and buy-to-launderers look likely not to make any great returns.

Any buying that is going on is people genuinely wanted to have - and it is old fashioned to say this - wanting to buy (and I think everyone remembers the concept from Ye Olde Days of Yore) - a 'HOME'.

Bring on the correction!!!

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 09:47PM Report Comment

14. Headmelter said...

"A substantial fall in real house prices is likely at some point in the relatively near future, though it could yet be one or two years away,"

I have to say I do like this quote......the clock is ticking......TICK...TOCK...

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 11:20PM Report Comment

15. Nohpc said...

It's sweet the way you guys get so excited by this stuff... awww.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 11:20PM Report Comment

16. glorious sunshine said...

Dream on...they will never fall while there are so many desperados propping up this site gagging to buy.

Prices will NEVER fall unless IR go into double figures or while B&B (blair & brown - pair of tossers) are hell bent on harmonising us with Europe (read totally destroying OUR country).

Remember Europe is a rental society - great isn't it? - NOT.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 11:34PM Report Comment

17. paul said...

welcome back glorious sunshine.

This kind of publicity must send a chill through your bones. After all if enough papers say it will happen, then it tends to ... well ... happen.

Europe is not a rental society - they have more sensible taxation regimes to curb multiple ownership. Rental yields are also high relative to prices too.

Doesn't sound at all bad.

I take it from the capitals therefore that you're reassuring yourself rather than assuring us.

Thursday, November 23, 2006 12:01AM Report Comment

18. P. Doff said...

nearly30. - 'Any buying that is going on is people genuinely wanted to have - and it is old fashioned to say this - wanting to buy (and I think everyone remembers the concept from Ye Olde Days of Yore) - a 'HOME'. '- anyone buying is a fool -

Of the six mortgage valuations I did today, three were BTL. One of tomrrows jobs is also BTL. I am valuing another BTL on friday.

I guess there are still a lot of 'fools' out there!!!

Yes, there are plenty of maxed out people, and, as a result, many companies have set up to capitalise on their predicament. Perhaps you have noticed the 'we will buy your house dirt' adverts. I valued a house 2 months ago which was being bought at less than market value by one of these companies for 70K. They have just resold it for 92K. It seems profits are still being made by informed property speculators and yes, you guessed it, the buyer is a 'foolish' BTL.

Of couse, I can't speak for other parts of the country, but the comments on my earlier blog are valid and factual in relation to this area.

Before you leap to the conclusion that I am a VI. let me assure you that I don't give a stuff either way about property values or interest rates. While the sales market is busy, I am able to earn a (small) bonus. If the market collapses, I'll probably be busy doing repossession valuations. If things go really pear shaped, I might even be able to get out of the office before 8pm. If interest rates rise I will get a better return on my savings investments (and I paid off my mortgage some time ago). If property values crash, my home is still the same pile of bricks and mortar it was when I bought it in the last crash. I bought it to live in - nothing more - and I don't have any other properties. Should values crash, I will be able to afford a move to a larger house without becoming a slave to the bank.

Bring on whatever!!!

Thursday, November 23, 2006 12:33AM Report Comment

19. george monsoon said...

Nothing lasts forever. Even the longest, the most glittering reign must come to an end someday. ..

That day has arrived. At long Bloody last!!

Thursday, November 23, 2006 08:29AM Report Comment

20. millard said...

Slight thread hijack so appologies, Bigwavedave, can you post the website monitoring link that you used for the statistics?

Thursday, November 23, 2006 09:52AM Report Comment

21. Dohousescrashinthewoods said...

>> That day has arrived. At long Bloody last!!

I think you may be right. Seems most people are too busy "thinking each others' thoughts" to have original ideas - i.e. people trying to look clever by parotting someone else who is trying to look clever.

To put it another way, sheeple repeat media stories to each other and media stories are written by [journalists/sheeple] who take surveys of sheeple.

If that's true it takes only a small group of people to influence huge numbers to a tipping point.

Thursday, November 23, 2006 05:31PM Report Comment

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