Wednesday, Nov 01, 2006

New Land Registry house price index touted as being most accurate

TimesOnline: New house price index gives regional picture

The new house price index collated on monthly data should become the authoratitive and most accurate reflection of house price movements according to Land Registry deputy chief executive Ted Beardsall. Currently it show London booming and other areas falling.

Posted by denzil @ 09:28 AM (388 views)
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2 Comments

1. Nohpc said...

Surely if they only compare the exact same houses being sold within a few years it will seriously skew the data. Most houses sold that quickly have been bought up and developed hence you would expect their value to increase. Anyone else have any thoughts on this?

Wednesday, November 1, 2006 10:05PM Report Comment
 

2. Bfskinner said...

not sure NoHpc you could have a point.

i have a different query. how come the LR average for Q2 is 199K, but for september it is 169K. Thats quite a difference. whats up with that? How come this new method has wiped off 15% from the Q2 values, and yet it is reported as a rise. unless the two LR systems for calculating quaterly and monthly reports are vastly different that they not comparable.

Now we know that the LR data lags a few months behind, so the september report, probably covers sales that were agreed in Jun/July and August.

if we look at the RM asking price index for those months they were all over 200K. So whats going on there then?

what this does show is that sold prices seem to be quite a bit below the asking price. Therefore the market does not seem to be as bouyant as VIs would have us believe. If the LR data is skewed as NoHpc suggets it might be, then surely this only paints an even worse picture

This could be why VIs are worried about a rates rise. They know they have talked the market up too much (to dupe people on board). Now that the rise is comming (more likely than not) they are scrambling to talk the market down.

just some musings, anyone any thoughts?

BFS

Thursday, November 2, 2006 10:59PM Report Comment
 

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