Monday, November 20, 2006
Inflation v Deflation
There will be no deflation. I repeat: there will be no self reinforcing spiral of debt defaults, an irreversible collapse in the money supply and a decline in the general price level. Central banks will never again allow short term interest rates to fall below the rate of inflation, nor fail to supply sufficient liquidity to meet the demands of financial markets. There will be no repeat of a 1930s US depression or the grinding 1990s Japanese deflationary recession. Instead, we will experience something new, with elements of deflations, and inflations and stagflations past – rhymes of past verses of economic misfortune – but unlike any of these past episodes except equally unpleasant. I call this new process "Ka-Poom Theory."