Sunday, October 22, 2006

Ireland and Spain are highest risk says Deutsche Bank

US house prices declining: Is Europe next?

Strong price rises on most European housing markets. In the last ten years, house prices in Spain increased by 150%, in the UK even by 200% and in Ireland by as much as 300%.

Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 01:06 AM (543 views)
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6 thoughts on “Ireland and Spain are highest risk says Deutsche Bank

  • A good article, not too detailed and to the point. Deutsche is right about Germany too. German house prices have stayed flat since 1995 so they are the least at risk of a housing crash.

    The US median existing home prices says it all. Something very bad is happening over the sea, and it’s likely to come over here too.

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  • Quote of the day (tangential to the article, but interesting nonetheless):

    “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as they have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months.” – Dr. Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, one of the most important US economists of his day, speaking on October 17, 1929, a few weeks before the Great Crash.

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  • Harold – just like 2000 – the ‘wall of money’ argument made people think it was definitely ‘different this time’. Mind you, having been warning clients during 1999 that the most serious risk to the market was the US fear of the millennium bug, I too was out of reasons why it should fall, once that proved to be a damp squib.

    The lesson I learned from that is that markets can just collapse, for no good reason other than the fact that they are just too far ahead of the curve. Many argue that we need a big hike in interest rates or some other shock to the system to bring about a collapse in property prices, but, whilst this would help to accelerate a collapse, my view is that, as soon as prices stop rising, they will soon fall and the rot will set in, bringing the whole edifice down.

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  • Going out for a few beers with a few feinds who are seriously VI’s my friend told me to buy 5 years ago didnt listen… I have now lost 100K since then on the growth of things. His freind does all the mortgages for him and still says due to immigration and the sheer supply and demand prices will continue to rise for the next 5 years. I had a fair arguemnet that he walked out on inflation surely causes wages to go up. But it doesnt happen he said cos immigrants take the lower wages. Intrest rates rise to curb inflation (try too) but still wages dont go up cos these immigrants need places to live and they curb the increase needed in wages.. Where does it end???? Unemployment goes up cos its cheaper to employ an immigrant than a U.K citizen and do they pay for our unemployment if they do let them all in!!!!!….

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  • Waitingfor Hpc says:

    heard the prices rise for 5 years stuff all the time. Immigration has curbed inflation on wages but not imports and energy – both are on the rise.
    The minimum wage is being used to push up lower wages and the unions are pushing that all the time – now at £5.35 per hour. And i employ immigrants and they get the same – if not more than UK workers because they work harder and longer…… wages are and will go up – in my humble opinion immigration is a spent force – our employers now expect it and see it as the same as UK work force – and these guys are not here to be exploited they move jobs for an extra £0.05 per hour so the wage competition goes on….. all VI spin to try and convince us the bubble is not a bubble..

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  • waitingfor hpc says:

    heard the prices rise for 5 years stuff all the time. Immigration has curbed inflation on wages but not imports and energy – both are on the rise.
    The minimum wage is being used to push up lower wages and the unions are pushing that all the time – now at £5.35 per hour. And i employ immigrants and they get the same – if not more than UK workers because they work harder and longer…… wages are and will go up – in my humble opinion immigration is a spent force – our employers now expect it and see it as the same as UK work force – and these guys are not here to be exploited they move jobs for an extra £0.05 per hour so the wage competition goes on….. all VI spin to try and convince us the bubble is not a bubble..

    Reply
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